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Thread: Jay's dream trade

  1. #26
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    So then, based upon this years stats, there are 16 people better suited to trade for (17 but we already have JO)

    Allen Iverson, PHI 23 44.1 34.0 11.7-26.1 45.000 1.1-3.5 .325 9.3-11.8 79.336
    2 Kobe Bryant, LAL 22 40.4 31.2 11.6-26.6 43.515 1.0-3.5 .289 7.0-8.6 81.053
    3 LeBron James, CLE 21 41.5 30.5 10.6-21.5 49.446 1.6-4.5 .347 7.7-9.9 77.778
    4 G. Arenas, WAS 19 41.4 27.7 8.8-20.8 42.532 2.8-7.4 .379 7.2-8.9 80.588
    5 Dwyane Wade, MIA 23 39.4 26.7 9.3-20.3 45.708 0.1-1.1 .077 8.1-10.6 76.955
    6 Paul Pierce, BOS 21 39.2 26.5 8.6-17.7 48.656 1.3-3.0 .444 8.0-9.9 80.676
    7 Dirk Nowitzki, DAL 22 38.3 26.2 9.2-20.2 45.393 1.7-4.0 .416 6.1-7.0 87.662
    8 Elton Brand, LAC 22 39.8 25.3 9.5-17.6 54.124 0.0-0.0 .000 6.2-8.0 77.273
    9 Michael Redd, MIL 19 37.8 25.3 8.3-18.5 45.014 2.4-4.8 .495 6.3-7.6 82.069
    10 Ray Allen, SEA 21 39.8 24.6 8.5-20.5 41.395 3.1-9.0 .342 4.5-5.1 88.785
    11 C. Anthony, DEN 22 34.2 22.9 7.9-17.1 45.889 0.3-1.4 .226 6.8-8.5 80.214
    12 J. Richardson, GSW 22 39.2 22.8 8.8-19.6 44.780 1.8-5.8 .307 3.5-5.1 68.142
    13 R. Hamilton, DET 19 36.8 22.3 8.8-17.3 50.760 0.7-1.5 .464 4.0-4.6 86.364
    14 Chris Bosh, TOR 22 39.0 22.2 7.5-15.8 47.550 0.0-0.1 .000 7.2-8.7 82.813
    15 Kevin Garnett, MIN 21 39.9 22.0 8.8-16.5 53.179 0.1-0.3 .429 4.3-5.7 75.630
    16 J. O'Neal, IND 20 36.7 21.7 8.2-17.2 47.384 0.1-0.2 .333 5.4-7.3 73.793
    17 Vince Carter, NJN 20 36.1 21.5 8.0-17.6 45.170 1.3-3.7 .351 4.3-5.3 81.132
    If you get to thinkin’ you’re a person of some influence, try orderin’ somebody else’s dog around..

  2. #27

    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    If we trade for VC, you might as well plan on trading Jax before the deadline. Jax cannot accept being no.3
    "He wanted to get to that money time. Time when the hardware was on the table. That's when Roger was going to show up. So all we needed to do was stay close"
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  3. #28
    Naptown Seth
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Quote Originally Posted by [EMAIL="Jay@Section204"
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    Jay@Section204[/EMAIL]]No, you're being mocked by people with 10x your basketball knowledge, but you don't even have enough basketball knowledge to understand it.

    I'm smart enough to say that if I haven't seen a player enough, that I don't have an opinion of him.

    Too bad you're apparently not...

    I was trying to help you out. If you're too foolish/ stubborn to accept it, then that's your problem. Good luck.
    If a player is a good scorer, it will show up in his measured production. (ppg, fg%, ft%, 3p%)
    If a player is a good rebounder, it will show up in his measured production. (rpg)
    If a player is a good passer, it will show up in his measured production. (apg)
    If a player is a good shooter, it will show up in his measured production. (ft%, fg%, 3p%)
    If a player is a good shot blocker, it will show up in his measured production. (bpg)

    Now obviously, you can't go by stats alone. There are other factors that can sway stats: ie, a player who plays with weak rebounders will have inflated rebounding numbers (Ben Wallace 2002-2003), a player who plays in a well structured offense will get better looks and thus have an inflated fg% and 3p% (Joe Johnson 2004), a player who dominates posesion of the ball for his team on offense will have inflated apg (Stephon Marbury) however it will be countered with more topg, etc. Also minutes per game can play a big part in stats.

    However, the bottom line is, stats measure production, Good production is the key to success. Therefor, good stats = good production = success. It make sense. And the teams with the most overall productive players are the winninest teams (San Antonio, Detroit, Clippers, Phoenix etc.)

    You can watch a player all you want, but you're not gonna get the same level on a players abilities as you will with measured production. Because believe it or not, stats don't lie, it's peoples perception of players that do.

    Now, let me ask you some questions...
    What do you think determines whether or not a player is a great scorer?
    What do you think determines whether or not a player is a great rebounder?
    What do you think determines whether or not a player is a great passer?
    What do you think determines whether or not a player is a great shooter?
    What do you think determines whether or not a player is a great shot blocker?
    What do you think determines whether or not a player is a great overall player?

  4. #29
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Seth,

    Would the Detroit Pistons be a better team with Rasheed Wallace starting at PF or with Mehmet Okur starting at PF? In your opinion.
    UncleBuck:

    "See how stupid those fans sound complaining about the officials. That is one reason why I hate when Pacers fans complain about the refs - does not come across well at all, no matter the merit. "

  5. #30
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    I can't believe how dense you're being.

    The answer to most of your questions is to answer the questions I've been asking you.

    You can't use stats to answer any of these questions, by the way. That's circular reasoning. You can't say, "I think player A is a great passer because he has a high ATO." That's backwards logic. The player has a high ATO because he does x, y, and z well. But there are still guys with a high ATO that nobody in their right mind would call a good passer - guys like AJ that can only make the safe pass, for example, and never even try to throw it into the paint.

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown Seth
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    Now, let me ask you some questions...
    What do you think determines whether or not a player is a great scorer?
    Can they create their own shot or do they have to rely on a team setting to get shots?
    How many 'pet' moves? How good are each of the pet moves? How much of a dropoff to moves B, C, and D?
    Do they have 'pet' moves on each side of the basket? From different spots on the court?
    How easy is it for the defender to predict which move is coming?
    How good are they at drawing fouls, continuing the shot, and hitting FTs?

    What do you think determines whether or not a player is a great rebounder?
    Playing in a quicker-paced game with more missed shots from both teams would serve to inflate rebounding numbers, so you certainly just can't look at rebounds from guys on two different teams and make any reasonable conclusions. Wilt averaged like 25+ rebounds per game for his career, but I'm not about to say that Ben Wallace is a lousy rebounder because he averages ten (or more) rebounds less per game.

    When I'm evaluating a player's rebounding, I'll look for

    A nose for the ball.
    Ability to block out, keep other players away from the ball.
    Hustle.
    Playing closer to the basket (e.g. Pacers guards are supposed to get back on defense and will almost never have offensive rebounds, other teams - different approach and different results.)

    What do you think determines whether or not a player is a great passer?
    As a former PG, I've got a pretty good sense for whether or not the passer can find the open man and a passing lane, so that's the first thing I look for. If I can see somebody open, and know how I'd get the ball to him, then I expect NBA players to be able to do that as well. Although Travis could not and AJ struggles with that as well.

    The second thing I look for is where the guy at the receiving end of the pass gets the ball. Does he have to reach for it? Does he have to give up post position? Mark Jackson always put the ball in Reggie's hands with the seems already lined up so that Reggie was ready to go right into his shooting motion. Is the pass to a moving player caught in stride, or does the player have to stop. That may not be recorded as a turnover, but its a bad pass that can kill a possession.

    Derrick McKey was tall enough to throw a post entry pass that could not be intercepted. Jackson (or Workman) would have to lob the ball and it was easy for the defender to break contact with Rik, get in front of him, and steal it. But Derrick could put zip on it.

    What do you think determines whether or not a player is a great shooter?
    Technique is helpful, but we've seen flat-footed guys with a hitch in their stroke that can light it up, so its not everything.
    Actually, the best answer is confidence.
    The second most important thing is how well they get their legs into the shot, therefore, conditioning is vital.

    What do you think determines whether or not a player is a great shot blocker?
    Defensive schemes help a bunch here. The same defensive player, depending on matchups, may be either defending the post or playing the weakside. The easy example is Detroit, where 'Sheed and Ben can both play either position. But if 'Sheed is defending JO in the paint, and Ben is guarding Foster, he's just going to play goalie and wait until a little guy comes at him.

    Further, let me just say that I don't think shot blocking is very important overall in terms of evaluating a player's defensive abilities. A large % of blocked shots are rebounded by the offensive team and converted into layups - especially if the shot blocker's momentum carries him away from the rim, leaving a big gaping seam for the offense to fill.

    What do you think determines whether or not a player is a great overall player?
    The first thing I look for is, how well do they play in the fourth quarter? That tells me two things - are they conditioned?, and how to they handle pressure? Next I'd look for their balance between their offensive and defensive games. I hate calling one-dimensional players "great". Thirdly, I'd look for diversity in their offensive game - how many different ways can a player 'hurt you'? Shooting, driving, passing, offensive rebounds, good-quality screens, etc.

    Lastly, I'd just look for whether a player "makes plays" or not.

    + + + + +

    I'm not saying that stats have no meaning, but (1) they can be misleading, (2) stats never, ever, ever, ever explain why a player is good or bad or anything, and (3) unless you're the player's agent or playing fantasy basketball (and you can ask the guys around here, I'm absolutely awful at fantasy basketball because I'd rather watch real basketball than read boxscores), individual stats don't mean anything. The most important stat is whether or not a player is contributing to wins and losses. But you can't even measure that by individual plus/minus, because that can be influenced by the other players on the court, too.

    As Mark Twain said, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

    One of my basketball coaches, who was a math teacher, used to say, "Stats are numbers that are only good for telling lies."

    And one of my stats professors in college would say, "Give me a set of data, and I can make it say anything I want." Matter of fact, one of our Managing Directors here is a former stats professer and he's, of course, got a great reputation nationally for his ability to take large volumes of data and manipulate it in ways to help our clients win key litigation cases. I don't think he's working today but I could get him to chime in if you're still overly smitten with stats.
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you


  6. #31

    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay@Section204
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    I can't believe how dense you're being.

    The answer to most of your questions is to answer the questions I've been asking you.

    You can't use stats to answer any of these questions, by the way. That's circular reasoning. You can't say, "I think player A is a great passer because he has a high ATO." That's backwards logic. The player has a high ATO because he does x, y, and z well. But there are still guys with a high ATO that nobody in their right mind would call a good passer - guys like AJ that can only make the safe pass, for example, and never even try to throw it into the paint.



    Can they create their own shot or do they have to rely on a team setting to get shots?
    How many 'pet' moves? How good are each of the pet moves? How much of a dropoff to moves B, C, and D?
    Do they have 'pet' moves on each side of the basket? From different spots on the court?
    How easy is it for the defender to predict which move is coming?
    How good are they at drawing fouls, continuing the shot, and hitting FTs?



    Playing in a quicker-paced game with more missed shots from both teams would serve to inflate rebounding numbers, so you certainly just can't look at rebounds from guys on two different teams and make any reasonable conclusions. Wilt averaged like 25+ rebounds per game for his career, but I'm not about to say that Ben Wallace is a lousy rebounder because he averages ten (or more) rebounds less per game.

    When I'm evaluating a player's rebounding, I'll look for

    A nose for the ball.
    Ability to block out, keep other players away from the ball.
    Hustle.
    Playing closer to the basket (e.g. Pacers guards are supposed to get back on defense and will almost never have offensive rebounds, other teams - different approach and different results.)



    As a former PG, I've got a pretty good sense for whether or not the passer can find the open man and a passing lane, so that's the first thing I look for. If I can see somebody open, and know how I'd get the ball to him, then I expect NBA players to be able to do that as well. Although Travis could not and AJ struggles with that as well.

    The second thing I look for is where the guy at the receiving end of the pass gets the ball. Does he have to reach for it? Does he have to give up post position? Mark Jackson always put the ball in Reggie's hands with the seems already lined up so that Reggie was ready to go right into his shooting motion. Is the pass to a moving player caught in stride, or does the player have to stop. That may not be recorded as a turnover, but its a bad pass that can kill a possession.

    Derrick McKey was tall enough to throw a post entry pass that could not be intercepted. Jackson (or Workman) would have to lob the ball and it was easy for the defender to break contact with Rik, get in front of him, and steal it. But Derrick could put zip on it.



    Technique is helpful, but we've seen flat-footed guys with a hitch in their stroke that can light it up, so its not everything.
    Actually, the best answer is confidence.
    The second most important thing is how well they get their legs into the shot, therefore, conditioning is vital.



    Defensive schemes help a bunch here. The same defensive player, depending on matchups, may be either defending the post or playing the weakside. The easy example is Detroit, where 'Sheed and Ben can both play either position. But if 'Sheed is defending JO in the paint, and Ben is guarding Foster, he's just going to play goalie and wait until a little guy comes at him.

    Further, let me just say that I don't think shot blocking is very important overall in terms of evaluating a player's defensive abilities. A large % of blocked shots are rebounded by the offensive team and converted into layups - especially if the shot blocker's momentum carries him away from the rim, leaving a big gaping seam for the offense to fill.



    The first thing I look for is, how well do they play in the fourth quarter? That tells me two things - are they conditioned?, and how to they handle pressure? Next I'd look for their balance between their offensive and defensive games. I hate calling one-dimensional players "great". Thirdly, I'd look for diversity in their offensive game - how many different ways can a player 'hurt you'? Shooting, driving, passing, offensive rebounds, good-quality screens, etc.

    Lastly, I'd just look for whether a player "makes plays" or not.

    + + + + +

    I'm not saying that stats have no meaning, but (1) they can be misleading, (2) stats never, ever, ever, ever explain why a player is good or bad or anything, and (3) unless you're the player's agent or playing fantasy basketball (and you can ask the guys around here, I'm absolutely awful at fantasy basketball because I'd rather watch real basketball than read boxscores), individual stats don't mean anything. The most important stat is whether or not a player is contributing to wins and losses. But you can't even measure that by individual plus/minus, because that can be influenced by the other players on the court, too.

    As Mark Twain said, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

    One of my basketball coaches, who was a math teacher, used to say, "Stats are numbers that are only good for telling lies."

    And one of my stats professors in college would say, "Give me a set of data, and I can make it say anything I want." Matter of fact, one of our Managing Directors here is a former stats professer and he's, of course, got a great reputation nationally for his ability to take large volumes of data and manipulate it in ways to help our clients win key litigation cases. I don't think he's working today but I could get him to chime in if you're still overly smitten with stats.
    Now this my friends...this is a POST!
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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  7. #32
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    By the way, this trade works:

    Indiana:

    Outgoing: Artest, Harrison
    Incoming: Ginobili


    New Jersey:

    Outgoing: Carter
    Incoming: Ron Artest, Nazr Mohammed


    San Antonio:

    Outgoing: Nazr Mohammed, Manu Ginobili
    Incoming: Vince Carter, David Harrison

    Overall, not a bad trade, I just don't see why San Antonio would mess with a good thing.

  8. #33
    Member SycamoreKen's Avatar
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Manu has more basketball smarts between his ears and more heart in his chest than Vince Carter that it isn't even funny. Filling stat lines on losing teams that are going nowhere means nothing. Carter couldn't play for the Spurs because he won't/can't play defense worth a crap.

  9. #34
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Wait for it...

  10. #35
    All is full of Orange! Mourning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Quote Originally Posted by DEEman
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    In other words, facts/statistics alone are almost useless, because even i can score 25 points in the paint when Allen, Peja and Croshere are standing around the arc
    !!! IF you can get 25 then surely I should be able to get 30

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  11. #36
    Get well soon PG! Believe_in_blue's Avatar
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown Seth
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    Oh no! I'm being mocked by people who don't even have 1/10th my basketball knowledge! Im so badly hurt!

    Here's the average Jay@Section204 post - "Let's trade Ron for Earl Watson!!! Sure, Earl couldnt even start over Jason Williams but I watched him play 6 minutes when the Grizzlies were on TNT back in March of 2003 and he was awesome!! That must mean he's great even though his measured production for his entire career, not to mention the fact thats hes never been given a starting position anywhere, says otherwise!!!"

    Production > Everything Else

    Period.
    Naptown Seth > everybody else

    Someone of your brilliance should not be discussing basketball on a message board with those of us who only have 10% of your basketball knowledge. I think you need to quit wasting your time here and start sending your résumé to every NBA who is struggling. Good luck!

  12. #37
    flexible and robust SoupIsGood's Avatar
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Oh! I lost count but snap!
    You, Never? Did the Kenosha Kid?

  13. #38

    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Quote Originally Posted by Ultimate Frisbee
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    San Antonio:

    Outgoing: Nazr Mohammed, Manu Ginobili
    Incoming: Vince Carter, David Harrison
    Hmmm..

    Nazr >> David in every single phase of the game
    Manu >>> Vince in every way but scoring and taking bad shots

    San Antonio would never even think aboout this.
    The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!)

  14. #39
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Quote Originally Posted by Jay@Section204
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    Manu was easily the best player on the court for three of the Spurs four wins in The Finals last spring.
    Quoted for truth.

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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Quote Originally Posted by btowncolt
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    Sextuple snap!
    Mmm...sextuple snap...

  16. #41
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Quote Originally Posted by pacertom
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    Hmmm..

    Nazr >> David in every single phase of the game
    Manu >>> Vince in every way but scoring and taking bad shots

    San Antonio would never even think aboout this.

    Very true. Unless Ginobili were for some reason unhappy... Just finding a scenario that works to some extent...

  17. #42
    flexible and robust SoupIsGood's Avatar
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Nazr is now a third string center also...... just so ya know......


    we don't want another lazy and apathetic guy..... if ya know what I mean....
    You, Never? Did the Kenosha Kid?

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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Quote Originally Posted by btowncolt
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    Septuple snap!
    What comes next?

  19. #44
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    u need 2.
    duncan & robinson
    duncan & manu
    didn't manu hang up over 50 in the playoffs? just cause carter can jump & dunk? he does not win at this level. never has.how deep has carter gone in the playoffs? and yes manu's play would look lesser w/o duncan...

  20. #45
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    Default Re: Jay's dream trade

    Both.
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you


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