Agents, advisors tell teens to declare
By Chad Ford
Friday, March 26
Parents, hide your children. Unless, that is, your child happens to be 6-foot-10 and can shoot a basketball.
There is an unprecedented stampede of American and international teenagers beating down the NBA's door this year. Will it be the end of civilization as we know it? Or is something else going on here?
After Insider's pieces the last two weeks detailing the flood of high school seniors and international teens mulling a move straight to the NBA, we've been inundated with reader letters protesting the wave of inexperienced players .
Why are more kids than ever rushing to get into the NBA -- even though many of them aren't ready?
The answer is simple. Their agents or "advisors" are telling them to. The growing fear both in America and abroad is that the league will push through an age limit this summer as part of the collective bargaining negotiations with the players' union.
While the union remains steadfast that it doesn't support an age limit, history says that David Stern gets what he wants at the negotiating table. Of all the important issues facing the union, this may be the least important (the kids aren't even in the league yet) and many think they'll eventually cave. In fact, union chief Billy Hunter has already said that they may be willing to compromise on the issue if the league offers them concessions in return.
Stern claimed at the All-Star Game that he was just trying to do what was best for the league and the players by pushing an age limit.
"I just think it would be a good idea as a league if we were not associated with the prospect of pulling kids who are now 10 years old, bouncing the ball and telling their parents they are going to be the next LeBron James, because everyone in this room knows they are not," Stern said. "And then they will be left with virtually nothing."
Hunter scoffs at the idea that the league is trying to be altruistic.
"What they are trying to do with an age requirement is reduce the number of bites at the apple that a player can take," Hunter told the Washington Post, referring to the number of times a player can get a maximum contract over the course of his career. "The owner's negotiating committee is about money. Their stance that an age requirement helps [players get an education] is a charade."
The rampant speculation that an age limit is imminent pushed a record number of young players into the draft last year. Will it happen again? The choice isn't a tough one for most teenagers. They can either declare now and get millions in guaranteed money or they can wait two years before getting another shot at the pros.
The shift in thinking has been most notable this year. Two years ago, advisors were telling high school kids that they should declare only if they were guaranteed a slot in the lottery. From time to time, kids got bad advice (or didn't qualify academically) and made mistakes, but for the most part only serious lottery picks applied.
That's changed. Now, high school kids are being told that they should declare for the draft as long as they're guaranteed to go anywhere in the first round. Travis Outlaw, Ndudi Ebi and Kendrick Perkins broke the mold last year when they knowingly entered the draft with a full understanding that they'd be late-first-round picks.
Now the floodgates have opened.
"I think everyone should go [pro] who has that opportunity, and you can quote me," Sonny Vaccaro said this week. Vaccaro, who works for Reebok, also runs an all-star high school game, the EA Roundball Classic, and is widely considered the most influential advisor in high school basketball.
"I think it's a no-brainer. They have to do it," said Vaccaro. "It's good that kid is getting an education. But that kid can put $3 million in the bank before he's 21 and still get an education later. I think if you're guaranteed to go anywhere (in the first round), then you've got to go."
American high school kids aren't the only ones hearing the siren's call.
"It's a serious issue that I'm advising all of my clients about," SFX agent David Bauman told Insider. Bauman, who represents mostly international players like Peja Stojakovic and Vladimir Radmanovic, has a young stable of international players that doesn't want to wait that long.
Two weeks ago, Bauman sent a memo to all 30 NBA teams announcing that he's putting all nine of his draft-eligible international clients in the draft this year. Most of them are under the age of 20. He even mulled putting in a 16-year-old client, Nemanja Alexandrov, and challenging the current NBA regulations that insist that international players must be 18-years-old before entering the draft. Alternatively, Bauman plans to officially enter Alexandrov's name into the draft the day after the 2004 draft is over. He hopes that the proactive move will protect Alexandrov in the event that the league develops an age limit this summer.
Alexandrov, a Serbian native who turns 17 before the draft, is widely considered among scouts to be a top-three pick in the 2005 draft. Bauman doesn't want Alexandrov to have to wait potentially three more drafts before becoming eligible.
He claims that if Alexandrov was in the draft this year, he'd still be a top-five pick. Several scouts contacted by Insider don't disagree.
"It's a slippery slope," one NBA scout claimed. "But the kid is really good and I don't think teams wouldn't hesitate to draft him. Scouts know him and love him."
That's got to be enough to send Stern into a tizzy. Stern has already been on the offensive, mocking the process and asking, rhetorically, how long it's going to be before teams start drafting 14-year-olds like O.J. Mayo.
"It used to be the next Michael Jordan; now it's the next LeBron James," Stern said recently. "Now it's down to 14-year-olds and ninth graders being focused on by the sports magazines. Elementary school, here we come. It's not the proudest moment in sports overall."
The answer commissioner? Sooner than you think.
Who's Hot?
The NCAA Tournament is in full swing and the high school kids just finished the first of what will be a plethora of all-star games over the next few weeks. Who's helping themselves?
Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest: This comes as no surprise to Insider readers. We've been writing over a month that Paul has risen to the status as the top point guard prospect in the world over the course of the last month of the season. He had a stellar NCAA Tournament that cemented his status as top-five pick whenever he decides to declare. His ability to score, handle the ball, explode to the basket and make his teammates better has several scouts calling him the best college point guard prospect since Jason Kidd.
Scouts had their hearts broken when Wake lost to St. Joseph's Thursday night. The tight loss will probably keep Paul at Wake for at least one more season. Paul has maintained for weeks that he's returning to school next season. He grew up a huge Wake Forest fan and wants to lead them to a national title. With his stock so high, he's got to at least consider the possibility of coming out, but in all likelihood he's returning to school.
Marvin Williams, SF, Bremerton, Wash: There were several impressive performances at the EA Roundball Classic in Chicago on Wednesday, but no one caught the eye of scouts more than Williams. "He's really an amazing kid," one scout told Insider. "He's so versatile and strong. He's the type of kid who you can play anywhere on the floor. He's special." Several other scouts were saying the same thing before Williams dropped 15 points and three high-flying dunks (one over Dwight Howard, another over Josh Smith) on Wednesday night. Apparently, he also shined in practice sessions as well. Williams, who is committed to North Carolina, continues to claim that he'll only consider the draft if he's a top-10 pick. Two weeks ago that seemed like a real stretch. Now? He's got the buzz.
Martynas Andriuskevicius, C, Lithuania: He's not playing in an NCAA Tournament or high school all-star games, but as NBA scouts return from Europe most of them can't stop raving about Andriuskevicius. Insider was the first to report on the mystery man from Lithuania back in December. At the time we claimed that he could end up being the top international prospect in the draft once scouts got a look. That prophecy is quickly becoming fulfilled. After getting feedback from numerous scouts over the past few weeks, it appears that Andriuskevicius has passed Pavel Podkolzine and Andris Biedrins on most scouts' draft lists and could go as high as the top five in the upcoming draft.
What's the appeal? He's 7-foot-3, athletic and (most importantly) he's being tutored by Arvydas Sabonis. Scouts claim that his feel for the game and fundamentals are pretty amazing for a kid his age. While scouts caution that Andriuskevicius is a few years away from being an impact player in the league because of strength and experience issue, most of them feel he's worth the risk.
Jameer Nelson and Delonte West, G, St. Joseph's: The backcourt was awesome once again against Wake and pushed Paul and the Demon Deacons out of the tournament. Nelson is the leading scorer in the tournament and West is right there with him. As St. Jospeh's continues to defy expectations, the legend of Nelson grows. Scouts who were, two weeks ago, still skeptical are starting to change their tune slightly. While most scouts and GMs still wonder aloud whether Nelson has the size and lateral quickness to be a full-time point guard in the league, in a draft full of questions marks, at least you know what you're getting with him.
Once word leaked that West was also considering a jump this year, scouts started paying more attention and have liked what they've seen. West's real test will come in the Chicago pre-draft camp if he decides to declare. His value increases greatly if he can prove to teams that he can play the point, at least part time. The comparisons to Gilbert Arenas are the there. Right now West is still a bubble guy for the first round. Nelson? He's still hard to peg. He'll go anywhere from the late lottery to the mid-20s. If he wins a title for St. Joseph's, it will be closer to the lottery.
Shaun Livingston, PG, Peoria (Ill.): Livingston nabbed MVP honors at the EA Roundball Classic with a pretty classic performance. Without Sebastian Telfair on hand to steal much of the hype, Livingston dropped 12 points and seven assists. The numbers may not wow you, but scouts walked away impressed with how steady and mature Livingston is running a team. He protects the ball and has a great feel for the game. There just aren't many 6-foot-7 guys who you can legitimately claim are "true" point guards. Livingston's one of them.
Kirk Snyder, SG, Nevada: The Wolfpack's surprising tournament run has scouts buzzing about Snyder. Snyder has been on scouts' radar screens for a while, but his stellar play against some of the best talent in the country is cementing his status as a legit NBA first-round prospect. His ability to score, rebound, pass and defend combined with NBA athleticism make him a pretty strong prospect in draft filled with inexperience. Snyder still needs to convince scouts that he can shoot the NBA 3, but his 44 percent shooting from 3-point range in the tournament is a good start.
Who's In, Who's Out?
After claiming several weeks ago that his client would not declare for the 2004 draft, agent Marc Cornstein now thinks there's a good chance 7-foot, 17-year-old Peja Samardzski will put his name in this year. Why the sudden shift? Cornstein won't say, but several scouts who've made the trip to Serbia lately claim that there's growing interest in Samardzski.
"I'm surprised because I can't fathom that Partizan would give up [Nenad] Kristic, [Kosta] Perovic and Samardzski to the NBA," one scout told Insider. "That would leave them pretty depleted."
If Samardzski does declare, and leaves his name in the draft, you can be pretty sure that an NBA team fell in love with him and gave Cornstein an early promise to draft him in the lottery.
Mississippi State forward Lawrence Roberts is mulling a jump to the pros. He told the Biloxi Sun Herald that he likes his chances of becoming an NBA lottery pick.
"You definitely want to be drafted in the first round," he said. That's seems like a stretch for Roberts. Despite having a great season in the tough SEC, scouts consider Roberts a bubble first-round pick.
Roy Williams got some good news this week when two of his best players, Rashad McCants and Sean May, told reporters that they plan to return to school next season. League sources also believe that point guard Raymond Felton will return to school, though he has been mulling putting his name in the draft and testing his stock.
Stanford head coach Mike Montgomery claims that Josh Childress will likely return for his senior season.
"As far as we're concerned, Josh's intent has always been to come back to school, finish his degree and finish up his career with his teammates," Montgomery told the San Francisco Chronicle.
That's at odds with what we've been hearing. League sources claim that Childress is seriously mulling a move to the NBA after garnering first team All-American honors and playing himself into a likely lottery pick in this year's draft.
Florida's David Lee and Matt Walsh both told head coach Billy Donovan that they plan to return to Florida next season. Guard Anthony Roberson, however, is believed to be leaning toward declaring for the draft.
By Chad Ford
Friday, March 26
Parents, hide your children. Unless, that is, your child happens to be 6-foot-10 and can shoot a basketball.
There is an unprecedented stampede of American and international teenagers beating down the NBA's door this year. Will it be the end of civilization as we know it? Or is something else going on here?
After Insider's pieces the last two weeks detailing the flood of high school seniors and international teens mulling a move straight to the NBA, we've been inundated with reader letters protesting the wave of inexperienced players .
Why are more kids than ever rushing to get into the NBA -- even though many of them aren't ready?
The answer is simple. Their agents or "advisors" are telling them to. The growing fear both in America and abroad is that the league will push through an age limit this summer as part of the collective bargaining negotiations with the players' union.
While the union remains steadfast that it doesn't support an age limit, history says that David Stern gets what he wants at the negotiating table. Of all the important issues facing the union, this may be the least important (the kids aren't even in the league yet) and many think they'll eventually cave. In fact, union chief Billy Hunter has already said that they may be willing to compromise on the issue if the league offers them concessions in return.
Stern claimed at the All-Star Game that he was just trying to do what was best for the league and the players by pushing an age limit.
"I just think it would be a good idea as a league if we were not associated with the prospect of pulling kids who are now 10 years old, bouncing the ball and telling their parents they are going to be the next LeBron James, because everyone in this room knows they are not," Stern said. "And then they will be left with virtually nothing."
Hunter scoffs at the idea that the league is trying to be altruistic.
"What they are trying to do with an age requirement is reduce the number of bites at the apple that a player can take," Hunter told the Washington Post, referring to the number of times a player can get a maximum contract over the course of his career. "The owner's negotiating committee is about money. Their stance that an age requirement helps [players get an education] is a charade."
The rampant speculation that an age limit is imminent pushed a record number of young players into the draft last year. Will it happen again? The choice isn't a tough one for most teenagers. They can either declare now and get millions in guaranteed money or they can wait two years before getting another shot at the pros.
The shift in thinking has been most notable this year. Two years ago, advisors were telling high school kids that they should declare only if they were guaranteed a slot in the lottery. From time to time, kids got bad advice (or didn't qualify academically) and made mistakes, but for the most part only serious lottery picks applied.
That's changed. Now, high school kids are being told that they should declare for the draft as long as they're guaranteed to go anywhere in the first round. Travis Outlaw, Ndudi Ebi and Kendrick Perkins broke the mold last year when they knowingly entered the draft with a full understanding that they'd be late-first-round picks.
Now the floodgates have opened.
"I think everyone should go [pro] who has that opportunity, and you can quote me," Sonny Vaccaro said this week. Vaccaro, who works for Reebok, also runs an all-star high school game, the EA Roundball Classic, and is widely considered the most influential advisor in high school basketball.
"I think it's a no-brainer. They have to do it," said Vaccaro. "It's good that kid is getting an education. But that kid can put $3 million in the bank before he's 21 and still get an education later. I think if you're guaranteed to go anywhere (in the first round), then you've got to go."
American high school kids aren't the only ones hearing the siren's call.
"It's a serious issue that I'm advising all of my clients about," SFX agent David Bauman told Insider. Bauman, who represents mostly international players like Peja Stojakovic and Vladimir Radmanovic, has a young stable of international players that doesn't want to wait that long.
Two weeks ago, Bauman sent a memo to all 30 NBA teams announcing that he's putting all nine of his draft-eligible international clients in the draft this year. Most of them are under the age of 20. He even mulled putting in a 16-year-old client, Nemanja Alexandrov, and challenging the current NBA regulations that insist that international players must be 18-years-old before entering the draft. Alternatively, Bauman plans to officially enter Alexandrov's name into the draft the day after the 2004 draft is over. He hopes that the proactive move will protect Alexandrov in the event that the league develops an age limit this summer.
Alexandrov, a Serbian native who turns 17 before the draft, is widely considered among scouts to be a top-three pick in the 2005 draft. Bauman doesn't want Alexandrov to have to wait potentially three more drafts before becoming eligible.
He claims that if Alexandrov was in the draft this year, he'd still be a top-five pick. Several scouts contacted by Insider don't disagree.
"It's a slippery slope," one NBA scout claimed. "But the kid is really good and I don't think teams wouldn't hesitate to draft him. Scouts know him and love him."
That's got to be enough to send Stern into a tizzy. Stern has already been on the offensive, mocking the process and asking, rhetorically, how long it's going to be before teams start drafting 14-year-olds like O.J. Mayo.
"It used to be the next Michael Jordan; now it's the next LeBron James," Stern said recently. "Now it's down to 14-year-olds and ninth graders being focused on by the sports magazines. Elementary school, here we come. It's not the proudest moment in sports overall."
The answer commissioner? Sooner than you think.
Who's Hot?
The NCAA Tournament is in full swing and the high school kids just finished the first of what will be a plethora of all-star games over the next few weeks. Who's helping themselves?
Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest: This comes as no surprise to Insider readers. We've been writing over a month that Paul has risen to the status as the top point guard prospect in the world over the course of the last month of the season. He had a stellar NCAA Tournament that cemented his status as top-five pick whenever he decides to declare. His ability to score, handle the ball, explode to the basket and make his teammates better has several scouts calling him the best college point guard prospect since Jason Kidd.
Scouts had their hearts broken when Wake lost to St. Joseph's Thursday night. The tight loss will probably keep Paul at Wake for at least one more season. Paul has maintained for weeks that he's returning to school next season. He grew up a huge Wake Forest fan and wants to lead them to a national title. With his stock so high, he's got to at least consider the possibility of coming out, but in all likelihood he's returning to school.
Marvin Williams, SF, Bremerton, Wash: There were several impressive performances at the EA Roundball Classic in Chicago on Wednesday, but no one caught the eye of scouts more than Williams. "He's really an amazing kid," one scout told Insider. "He's so versatile and strong. He's the type of kid who you can play anywhere on the floor. He's special." Several other scouts were saying the same thing before Williams dropped 15 points and three high-flying dunks (one over Dwight Howard, another over Josh Smith) on Wednesday night. Apparently, he also shined in practice sessions as well. Williams, who is committed to North Carolina, continues to claim that he'll only consider the draft if he's a top-10 pick. Two weeks ago that seemed like a real stretch. Now? He's got the buzz.
Martynas Andriuskevicius, C, Lithuania: He's not playing in an NCAA Tournament or high school all-star games, but as NBA scouts return from Europe most of them can't stop raving about Andriuskevicius. Insider was the first to report on the mystery man from Lithuania back in December. At the time we claimed that he could end up being the top international prospect in the draft once scouts got a look. That prophecy is quickly becoming fulfilled. After getting feedback from numerous scouts over the past few weeks, it appears that Andriuskevicius has passed Pavel Podkolzine and Andris Biedrins on most scouts' draft lists and could go as high as the top five in the upcoming draft.
What's the appeal? He's 7-foot-3, athletic and (most importantly) he's being tutored by Arvydas Sabonis. Scouts claim that his feel for the game and fundamentals are pretty amazing for a kid his age. While scouts caution that Andriuskevicius is a few years away from being an impact player in the league because of strength and experience issue, most of them feel he's worth the risk.
Jameer Nelson and Delonte West, G, St. Joseph's: The backcourt was awesome once again against Wake and pushed Paul and the Demon Deacons out of the tournament. Nelson is the leading scorer in the tournament and West is right there with him. As St. Jospeh's continues to defy expectations, the legend of Nelson grows. Scouts who were, two weeks ago, still skeptical are starting to change their tune slightly. While most scouts and GMs still wonder aloud whether Nelson has the size and lateral quickness to be a full-time point guard in the league, in a draft full of questions marks, at least you know what you're getting with him.
Once word leaked that West was also considering a jump this year, scouts started paying more attention and have liked what they've seen. West's real test will come in the Chicago pre-draft camp if he decides to declare. His value increases greatly if he can prove to teams that he can play the point, at least part time. The comparisons to Gilbert Arenas are the there. Right now West is still a bubble guy for the first round. Nelson? He's still hard to peg. He'll go anywhere from the late lottery to the mid-20s. If he wins a title for St. Joseph's, it will be closer to the lottery.
Shaun Livingston, PG, Peoria (Ill.): Livingston nabbed MVP honors at the EA Roundball Classic with a pretty classic performance. Without Sebastian Telfair on hand to steal much of the hype, Livingston dropped 12 points and seven assists. The numbers may not wow you, but scouts walked away impressed with how steady and mature Livingston is running a team. He protects the ball and has a great feel for the game. There just aren't many 6-foot-7 guys who you can legitimately claim are "true" point guards. Livingston's one of them.
Kirk Snyder, SG, Nevada: The Wolfpack's surprising tournament run has scouts buzzing about Snyder. Snyder has been on scouts' radar screens for a while, but his stellar play against some of the best talent in the country is cementing his status as a legit NBA first-round prospect. His ability to score, rebound, pass and defend combined with NBA athleticism make him a pretty strong prospect in draft filled with inexperience. Snyder still needs to convince scouts that he can shoot the NBA 3, but his 44 percent shooting from 3-point range in the tournament is a good start.
Who's In, Who's Out?
After claiming several weeks ago that his client would not declare for the 2004 draft, agent Marc Cornstein now thinks there's a good chance 7-foot, 17-year-old Peja Samardzski will put his name in this year. Why the sudden shift? Cornstein won't say, but several scouts who've made the trip to Serbia lately claim that there's growing interest in Samardzski.
"I'm surprised because I can't fathom that Partizan would give up [Nenad] Kristic, [Kosta] Perovic and Samardzski to the NBA," one scout told Insider. "That would leave them pretty depleted."
If Samardzski does declare, and leaves his name in the draft, you can be pretty sure that an NBA team fell in love with him and gave Cornstein an early promise to draft him in the lottery.
Mississippi State forward Lawrence Roberts is mulling a jump to the pros. He told the Biloxi Sun Herald that he likes his chances of becoming an NBA lottery pick.
"You definitely want to be drafted in the first round," he said. That's seems like a stretch for Roberts. Despite having a great season in the tough SEC, scouts consider Roberts a bubble first-round pick.
Roy Williams got some good news this week when two of his best players, Rashad McCants and Sean May, told reporters that they plan to return to school next season. League sources also believe that point guard Raymond Felton will return to school, though he has been mulling putting his name in the draft and testing his stock.
Stanford head coach Mike Montgomery claims that Josh Childress will likely return for his senior season.
"As far as we're concerned, Josh's intent has always been to come back to school, finish his degree and finish up his career with his teammates," Montgomery told the San Francisco Chronicle.
That's at odds with what we've been hearing. League sources claim that Childress is seriously mulling a move to the NBA after garnering first team All-American honors and playing himself into a likely lottery pick in this year's draft.
Florida's David Lee and Matt Walsh both told head coach Billy Donovan that they plan to return to Florida next season. Guard Anthony Roberson, however, is believed to be leaning toward declaring for the draft.
Comment