This article appears to be tonque in cheek, but it's the off season so . . .
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http://pacers.realgm.com/articles/51...test_equation/
The Ron Artest Equation
Andrew Perna - 21st September, 2005 3:32 PM
This seasons’ Indiana Pacers will without question be more competitive and talented than they were last season. That is due in part to the healthy return of players like Jermaine O’Neal and Jamaal Tinsley. However, the biggest piece missing from the Pacer puzzle last season was forward Ron Artest. If the Pacers return to the dominance they enjoyed in the 2003-2004 season – 61 wins and a trip to the Conference Finals – then Artest’s value to the Pacers will be displayed for the entire basketball world to see.
As a writer and fan that follows who Pacers closer than most could imagine, I was trying to come up with a prediction as to what the Pacers record would be for this season. At first I thought I could examine the schedule, game by game, and predict the outcome of all 82 contests. Then I discovered it require way to much research and roster comparing, and it ultimately would lead to continuous over analyzing of each individual games match-ups. My next idea was to assume e the Pacers would win a certain percentage of their home games and then try to pick which of the team’s forty-one road games would result in a victory. That required half the amount of research and roster comparing, but still led to over analyzing and another method needed to be thought up.
All of a sudden I re-read a statement I made in the first paragraph of this column. If the Pacers return to the dominance they enjoyed in the 2003-2004 season, then Artest’s value to the Pacers will be displayed for the entire basketball world to see. That’s it! Ron Artest is the answer to how many games the Pacers will win this season. Sounds simple doesn’t it? It is, well for the most part. I invented the Ron Artest Equation. As long as Ron remains on the Pacers, this equation should help predict the number of games the Pacers will win this season.
Everyone took some form of algebra when they attended school. The basic A = B + C type of algebraic equation, where knowing all but one of the variables helps you solve to discover the value of the unknown. Well with that small amount of knowledge I learned several years ago in my high school algebra class I derived one of the most fool-proof record predicting equations that Pacer GM Donnie Walsh has ever seen.
Assume the following given variables are true:
W = Pacers wins from last season. (44)
D = Number of games lost last season by 5 points or less. (16)
H = Incoming health of the rest of the Pacers roster, on a decimal scale from 0 to 1. (0.90)
P = Pacers winning percentage when Artest played in his career. (67%; 117-58)
Here is the derived Artest Equation:
Pacer Wins in 05-06 = [(W + 0.65D) * H] + (82P) / 2
The variable W is self-explanatory. The Pacers record in 2004-2005 was 44-38, so the value of W is 44. Then, I examined each of the Pacers 38 losses from last season and determined that they lost 16 games by 5 points of fewer. I assigned those losses as variable D. I determined that if Ron Artest had played in those 16 losses the Pacers would have had a much greater chance of winning the game. Taking into account Artest’s offensive and defensive prowess I estimated that the Pacers would have won 65 percent of those 16 close losses. This number isn’t too hard to predict because Indiana has a 67 percent winning percentage all-time when Artest is on the court (They are 117-58 with Artest since 2002).
The next variable in the equation is H. H stands for the health of the Pacers entering this season. The value of this variable will be determined on a scale of 0 to 1, with 1 assuming the Pacers team is in perfect health. I estimated H to have a value of 0.90. I took into account the healthy return of Tinsley and O’Neal, and the current nagging injuries of David Harrison and Danny Granger. This variable’s effect on the Pacers win total could vary a great deal throughout the season, but for now we’ll assume H is equal to 0.90. The last variable used in the equation is P, which stands for the Pacers all-time winning percentage when Artest plays. Now it’s simple just plug the given values I assigned to each variable and do the algebra.
Here’s the solution to The Ron Artest Equation:
= [(W + 0.65D) * H] + (82P) / 2
= [(44 + 0.65(16)) * 0.90] + [82(0.67)] / 2
= [(44 + 10.4) * 0.90] + [54.94] / 2
= [(54.4) * 0.90] + [54.94] / 2
= (49 + 55) / 2
= 104 / 2
= 52
Therefore the Pacers will win 52 games this season if Ron Artest plays the entire season. As the Ron Artest Equation states, the biggest variable for Indiana this season is Ron Artest himself. A record of 52-30 would be an 8-game improvement from last season. In 04-05 a 52-win season would have put the Pacers in the 4th seed (With the 3rd best overall record in the Eastern Conference and home court advantage in the first round). The 52-30 record obviously isn’t as impressive as the 03-04 record of 61-21, but as Indiana learned that season, what you do in the postseason means more than what you do during the regular season.
But, of course The Ron Artest Equation isn’t foolproof. More mathematics can prove that, the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavs, and Washington Wizards have been doing their own math homework. The Heat added Antoine Walker, Jason Williams, and James Posey and with the addition of Larry Hughes and Damon Jones in Cleveland the Eastern Conference will become even more competitive. On the other hand, with the subtraction of Hughes from Washington, the Wizards may not be as much of a threat to Indiana as they were last season.
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If the Pacer's only win 52 games this year I'm going to be disappointed. I'm predicting an incredible season barring injuries, 65-67 wins.
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http://pacers.realgm.com/articles/51...test_equation/
The Ron Artest Equation
Andrew Perna - 21st September, 2005 3:32 PM
This seasons’ Indiana Pacers will without question be more competitive and talented than they were last season. That is due in part to the healthy return of players like Jermaine O’Neal and Jamaal Tinsley. However, the biggest piece missing from the Pacer puzzle last season was forward Ron Artest. If the Pacers return to the dominance they enjoyed in the 2003-2004 season – 61 wins and a trip to the Conference Finals – then Artest’s value to the Pacers will be displayed for the entire basketball world to see.
As a writer and fan that follows who Pacers closer than most could imagine, I was trying to come up with a prediction as to what the Pacers record would be for this season. At first I thought I could examine the schedule, game by game, and predict the outcome of all 82 contests. Then I discovered it require way to much research and roster comparing, and it ultimately would lead to continuous over analyzing of each individual games match-ups. My next idea was to assume e the Pacers would win a certain percentage of their home games and then try to pick which of the team’s forty-one road games would result in a victory. That required half the amount of research and roster comparing, but still led to over analyzing and another method needed to be thought up.
All of a sudden I re-read a statement I made in the first paragraph of this column. If the Pacers return to the dominance they enjoyed in the 2003-2004 season, then Artest’s value to the Pacers will be displayed for the entire basketball world to see. That’s it! Ron Artest is the answer to how many games the Pacers will win this season. Sounds simple doesn’t it? It is, well for the most part. I invented the Ron Artest Equation. As long as Ron remains on the Pacers, this equation should help predict the number of games the Pacers will win this season.
Everyone took some form of algebra when they attended school. The basic A = B + C type of algebraic equation, where knowing all but one of the variables helps you solve to discover the value of the unknown. Well with that small amount of knowledge I learned several years ago in my high school algebra class I derived one of the most fool-proof record predicting equations that Pacer GM Donnie Walsh has ever seen.
Assume the following given variables are true:
W = Pacers wins from last season. (44)
D = Number of games lost last season by 5 points or less. (16)
H = Incoming health of the rest of the Pacers roster, on a decimal scale from 0 to 1. (0.90)
P = Pacers winning percentage when Artest played in his career. (67%; 117-58)
Here is the derived Artest Equation:
Pacer Wins in 05-06 = [(W + 0.65D) * H] + (82P) / 2
The variable W is self-explanatory. The Pacers record in 2004-2005 was 44-38, so the value of W is 44. Then, I examined each of the Pacers 38 losses from last season and determined that they lost 16 games by 5 points of fewer. I assigned those losses as variable D. I determined that if Ron Artest had played in those 16 losses the Pacers would have had a much greater chance of winning the game. Taking into account Artest’s offensive and defensive prowess I estimated that the Pacers would have won 65 percent of those 16 close losses. This number isn’t too hard to predict because Indiana has a 67 percent winning percentage all-time when Artest is on the court (They are 117-58 with Artest since 2002).
The next variable in the equation is H. H stands for the health of the Pacers entering this season. The value of this variable will be determined on a scale of 0 to 1, with 1 assuming the Pacers team is in perfect health. I estimated H to have a value of 0.90. I took into account the healthy return of Tinsley and O’Neal, and the current nagging injuries of David Harrison and Danny Granger. This variable’s effect on the Pacers win total could vary a great deal throughout the season, but for now we’ll assume H is equal to 0.90. The last variable used in the equation is P, which stands for the Pacers all-time winning percentage when Artest plays. Now it’s simple just plug the given values I assigned to each variable and do the algebra.
Here’s the solution to The Ron Artest Equation:
= [(W + 0.65D) * H] + (82P) / 2
= [(44 + 0.65(16)) * 0.90] + [82(0.67)] / 2
= [(44 + 10.4) * 0.90] + [54.94] / 2
= [(54.4) * 0.90] + [54.94] / 2
= (49 + 55) / 2
= 104 / 2
= 52
Therefore the Pacers will win 52 games this season if Ron Artest plays the entire season. As the Ron Artest Equation states, the biggest variable for Indiana this season is Ron Artest himself. A record of 52-30 would be an 8-game improvement from last season. In 04-05 a 52-win season would have put the Pacers in the 4th seed (With the 3rd best overall record in the Eastern Conference and home court advantage in the first round). The 52-30 record obviously isn’t as impressive as the 03-04 record of 61-21, but as Indiana learned that season, what you do in the postseason means more than what you do during the regular season.
But, of course The Ron Artest Equation isn’t foolproof. More mathematics can prove that, the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavs, and Washington Wizards have been doing their own math homework. The Heat added Antoine Walker, Jason Williams, and James Posey and with the addition of Larry Hughes and Damon Jones in Cleveland the Eastern Conference will become even more competitive. On the other hand, with the subtraction of Hughes from Washington, the Wizards may not be as much of a threat to Indiana as they were last season.
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If the Pacer's only win 52 games this year I'm going to be disappointed. I'm predicting an incredible season barring injuries, 65-67 wins.
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