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Thread: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

  1. #1
    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...sed/614279001/


    Over 60 wins

    Golden State Warriors - 67.5


    Over 50 wins


    Boston Celtics - 56.5
    Houston Rockets - 55.5
    San Antonio Spurs - 54.5
    Cleveland Cavaliers - 53.5
    Oklahoma City Thunder - 51.5



    Over 40 wins

    Toronto Raptors - 48.5
    Minnesota Timberwolves - 48.5

    Milwaukee Bucks - 47.5

    Washington Wizards - 47.5
    Denver Nuggets - 45.5
    LA Clippers - 43.5
    Miami Heat - 43.5
    Charlotte Hornets - 42.5
    Philadelphia 76ers - 42.5
    Portland Trail Blazers- 42.5
    Utah Jazz - 40.5


    Over 30 wins


    New Orleans Pelicans - 39.5
    Detroit Pistons - 38.5
    Memphis Grizzlies - 37.5
    Dallas Mavericks - 35.5

    LA Lakers - 33.5
    Orlando Magic - 33.5
    Indiana Pacers - 31.5

    New York Knicks - 30.5



    Over 20 wins


    Phoenix Suns - 28.5
    Brooklyn Nets - 28.5
    Sacramento Kings - 28.5
    Atlanta Hawks - 25.5
    Chicago Bulls - 21.5
    Last edited by Unclebuck; 08-30-2017 at 08:53 AM.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    Call me an optimist, but I think the Pacers will get over 31.5 wins fairly easily. I think the challenge would be at 35 wins.

  3. #3

    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    We need to get into that bottom 5 bad. As much as I'd love to see us make the playoffs the way to get better and land a franchise player for us is through the draft, and I know we've landed Reggie 30 years ago and PG outside of top 10 but I dont care. I'll take my chances with a pick inside the top 5 rather than #13-15 overall.

    I have a conspiracy theory that the NBA made us trade PG to OKC since they lost Durant last summer and promised us a top 2/3 pick if we did it. (: Lets go

    PS: Nets

  4. #4

    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    My guess is 32 wins, so I guess I take the over haha.

  5. #5

    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    Teams I can see tanking:

    Bulls - They've already came out and said they were.
    Hawks - Gutted their team by getting rid of all vets. They're real players for top pick in 2018.
    Kings - I don't see them tanking although they could end up with a top pick. They have a lot of talented youth plus signed vets like George Hill, Zach Randolph and Vince Carter.
    Nets - No reason to tank. They'll be motivated to screw that pick up for Boston/Cleveland. I dont think they want to gift wrap another team a #1 overall pick. Injuries were the main reason they won 20 games last year though...Boston was fortunate.
    Suns - I believe they need 1 more top pick and then they'll be ready to go. I see them as tankers.
    Knicks - They suck. Tanking.
    Magic - Not tanking.
    Lakers - Not tanking. Time to win. Lonzo will lead them and they keep their pick if it's #1 overall (too risky) and #6-30. They need the least amount of ping pong balls possible.
    Mavericks - Theywill not tank until they are eliminated from the playoffs, like they did last year, so I won't count them as tanking because they'll be shooting for wins for the first 6 months of season.
    Grizzlies - Sneaky tank team but can't list them yet. It seems like MEM is always injured. If Mike Conley goes down they'll be bad. Might put money on U37.5 wins now that I think about it.
    Pistons - no tank
    Pels - no tank


    So:
    Bulls
    Hawks
    Suns
    Knicks

    A total of 4 teams that will likely be in full tank mode for the 2017-2018 season. We know the Pacers won't tank so it's highly unlikely we have a worse record than those 4 teams listed. Also, if/when we are eliminated from playoff contention I doubt we'll rest or tank. We'll just be shooting for costly wins that screw up our draft pick. We just need to hope we somehow completely suck or have an injury plagued season or get hooked up at the draft lottery. A top 5 pick + the cap space we can create next summer would be oh so nice. But don't plan on it. We need it badly though, sets us up.

  6. #6
    DONCIC 2018 PacersHomer's Avatar
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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    I don't think the Knicks are going to tank. They won't make the playoffs but Hornacek is fighting for his job.

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    It is ka Thankee sai Major Cold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    Quote Originally Posted by I Love P View Post
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    Nets - No reason to tank. They'll be motivated to screw that pick up for Boston/Cleveland. I dont think they want to gift wrap another team a #1 overall pick. Injuries were the main reason they won 20 games last year though...Boston was fortunate.
    I really don't get this. I watch the Nets a dozen times with and without Lin and Lopez. I was row 3 when they came to Indy. Their roster was trash and they had every reason to want to win. I don't know why so many people think they were more unfortunate than other teams with injuries. And I don't know why so many people are trying to speak them into relevancy. Maybe because they hate Boston. Maybe they hated the trade of KG and Pierce. Maybe you are Russian.

    The main reason why the lost was they weren't good at all. And they are not that much better.

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    It is ka Thankee sai Major Cold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    Toronto Raptors - 48.5
    I would bet the over on a team that won 51 games in a tougher conference.

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  10. #9

    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    Quote Originally Posted by Major Cold View Post
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    I would bet the over on a team that won 51 games in a tougher conference.
    Raptors Under 48.5 wins is one of my favorite, if not favorite, play. It was Nets O20.5 wins which was the opening line a few months ago. I planned on emptying the 401k & all accounts on the over. Now it's 28.5, which is close to what it should be. I say 30.5 but still not as comfortable with 28.5 than 20.5 lol.

    I put the Raptors OU @ 41.5. Im not big on:

    Kyle Lowry (played 60 games last year) / Delon Wright (47 games played in 2 seasons)
    Demar DeRozan / Norman Powell - SG position is set
    CJ Miles (He's a bench player) / Bruno Cabloco (3 years 23 games 1.2 ppg) / OG Anuboy
    Serge Ibaka (each year his stats get worse. Is he really 27?) / Pascal Siakm
    Jonas Valencinous (on the trading block) / Jakob Poetll (just a sophomore)

    I'd feel a lot better if Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka & CJ Miles were on contract years but all 3 of those guys just got paid this offseason. I'm willing to say at least 2 of those guys won't live up to the contract this year & will coast through the year. Kyle Lowry 3 years $100 million? What's going to drive him? Lowry will probably miss a bunch of games.

    I like DeRozan, Powell & don't mind Jonas but they're counting on a lot of guys with no experience. I hated when CJ Miles started here & always said no team can be successful with CJ in their starting lineup. He should be an 8th man. Toronto could very well could miss the playoffs. You know there will be injuries. Last year I put money on Charlotte missing the playoffs & they did. That's what I'm doing with Toronto. They're out.

  11. #10

    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    Quote Originally Posted by Major Cold View Post
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    I really don't get this. I watch the Nets a dozen times with and without Lin and Lopez. I was row 3 when they came to Indy. Their roster was trash and they had every reason to want to win. I don't know why so many people think they were more unfortunate than other teams with injuries. And I don't know why so many people are trying to speak them into relevancy. Maybe because they hate Boston. Maybe they hated the trade of KG and Pierce. Maybe you are Russian.

    The main reason why the lost was they weren't good at all. And they are not that much better.
    I watched all their games. Lin played the first 5 games of the season before getting injured. They went 2-3 & 2 of their 3 losses were by a combined 7 pts, 5 @ Boston / 2 @ Milwaukee. The Nets last 21 games which Lin played in they went 10-11. They won 20 games last year & lost their best player yet their OU went up 8.5 games.

    Celtics, Bucks, Cavs, Wizards, Heat are the only 5 teams in the east who are locked into the playoffs.
    Bulls, Hawks, Knicks, Magic are 4 teams locked for the lottery.
    That leaves 6 teams left for the final 3 East seeds #6, #7, #8: Raptors, Hornets, Pistons, Pacers, Nets, 76ers. Tough to predict which 3 will back in out of those 6

  12. #11
    It is ka Thankee sai Major Cold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    Looks like you feel strongly about those picks, empty that 401k then.

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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    I have no clue how....but Vegas always have a good idea about how Teams will end up performing. The only way that I can see that the Pacers outperform this Win total is if something major happens ( such as a major trade where the Pacers take on some key long-term piece and/or this team IS WAYYYY better than we think ). But unless some no brainer trade comes a long....I don't see that happening. I think that KP will stick to his plan to use Cap Space to amass trading and long-term assets. At most, I can see the Pacers winning a few games more or less than this Win total.....but IMHO a really small chance that we significantly improve this win total.

    This will likely put us somewhere within the top 10 Lottery which I have no problem with. As long as our likely long term core of Dipo/Myles/CoJo/Lance/Sabonis/Leaf and short term core of DC/Bojan/Thad gets consistent minutes while we "test the waters" with GRIII to see if we should add him to the long term core or not, then I am fine with losing 2 out of every 3 games. The key to this and next season is developing and figuring out what our long-term core is and utilizing the Salary Cap space to improve this team for the long term.
    Last edited by CableKC; 08-30-2017 at 03:04 PM.
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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    Lakers under 33.5 and I feel pretty strongly about it. Ball is a rookie and I don't know how good he'll really be and Lopez is decent but he didn't do anything in Brooklyn, plus the Lakers are still in the Western Conference.

    Oh and from above, the Lakers don't keep their pick under any circumstances, if it's 2-5 it goes to Boston, 1 or anything past 5 it goes to Philly. They just aren't very talented still and relying on a rookie point guard to lead you near the playoffs is asking a lot.

    The Suns are about tired of young guys which is why they were trying to be in the Kyrie bidding. I think their talent being healthy gets them to 30-35 wins but they could fall lower.

    Pistons also feels like an easy over...they were 10th last year and clearly Chicago, Atlanta and Indiana will fall off so they should be a lock in with their talent. I'd feel way more comfortable with their 38.5 against Charlotte and Philly's 42.5, I think they'll be fighting for those last couple spots.
    "It's just unfortunate that we've been penalized so much this year and nothing has happened to the Pistons, the Palace or the city of Detroit," he said. "It's almost like it's always our fault. The league knows it. They should be ashamed of themselves to let the security be as lax as it is around here."

    ----------------- Reggie Miller

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    Member Hicks's Avatar
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    Default Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    Seems like a safe guess to me. There's so much up in the air that it's hard for me to expect more. I think I was drinking some kool aid earlier in the summer and thought it'd be around 35.


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    Last edited by Hicks; 08-31-2017 at 10:56 AM.

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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    Who else thought this was a BornIndy post when they read the threat title?

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  18. #16
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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Seems like a safe guess to me. There's so much up in the air that it's hard for me to expect more. I think I was drinking some kook aid earlier in the summer and thought it'd be around 35.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

    Kook Aid or Kool Aid. Hahaha..about the same I guess for those of us who think 35 is doable.
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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    Whoops


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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    Pacers are so up in the air it's hard to know for certain but I definitely take the over. I'm guessing right around 38 or so wins. Betting the under on Minnesota seems like one of the easier free money calls I have seen in a while.

  21. #19
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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    Seems pretty spot on to me, 31 wins is pretty much my exact prediction at this point.
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  22. #20
    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    If you are wondering if these type things turn out to be accurate or not. Look at last season

    https://www.bettheboardpodcast.com/2...-in-las-vegas/

    ATLANTA HAWKS 43.5
    BOSTON CELTICS 51.5
    BROOKLYN NETS 20.5
    CHARLOTTE HORNETS 39.5
    CHICAGO BULLS 38.5
    CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 56.5
    DALLAS MAVERICKS 39.5
    DENVER NUGGETS 34.5
    DETROIT PISTONS 45.5
    GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 66.5
    HOUSTON ROCKETS 41.5
    INDIANA PACERS 43.5
    LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 53.5
    LOS ANGELES LAKERS 24.5
    MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 43.5
    MIAMI HEAT 36.5
    MILWAUKEE BUCKS 39.5
    MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES 41.5
    NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 36.5
    NEW YORK KNICKS 38.5
    OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 45.5
    ORLANDO MAGIC 36.5
    PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 27.5
    PHOENIX SUNS 26.5
    PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS 46.5
    SACRAMENTO KINGS 32.5
    SAN ANTONIO SPURS 56.5
    TORONTO RAPTORS 49.5
    UTAH JAZZ 47.5
    WASHINGTON WIZARDS 42.5



  23. #21

    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    I'll do it ............


    ATLANTA HAWKS 43.5 43
    BOSTON CELTICS 51.5 53
    BROOKLYN NETS 20.5 20
    CHARLOTTE HORNETS 39.5 36
    CHICAGO BULLS 38.5 41
    CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 56.5 51
    DALLAS MAVERICKS 39.5 33
    DENVER NUGGETS 34.5 40
    DETROIT PISTONS 45.5 37
    GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 66.5 67
    HOUSTON ROCKETS 41.5 55
    INDIANA PACERS 43.5 42
    LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 53.5 51
    LOS ANGELES LAKERS 24.5 26
    MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 43.5 43
    MIAMI HEAT 36.5 41
    MILWAUKEE BUCKS 39.5 42
    MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES 41.5 31
    NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 36.5 34
    NEW YORK KNICKS 38.5 31
    OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 45.5 47
    ORLANDO MAGIC 36.5 29
    PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 27.5 28
    PHOENIX SUNS 26.5 24
    PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS 46.5 41
    SACRAMENTO KINGS 32.5 32
    SAN ANTONIO SPURS 56.5 61
    TORONTO RAPTORS 49.5 51
    UTAH JAZZ 47.5 51
    WASHINGTON WIZARDS 42.5 49

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  25. #22
    NaptownSeth is all feel Naptown_Seth's Avatar
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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    When I was out there the Pacers were at 45.5, not 43.5.


    And remember that Vegas is not setting the final odds, the market is. They aren't in the predict the wins game, they are in the balance the bets game. Pacers come out at 45.5, people crush the under and the line falls to 43.5.

    It's been shown (see Wisdom of Crowds) that group-think tends to be more accurate than individual experts, even if the group doesn't have much expertise on the subject. It's basically the Central Limit Theorem in action.

    Now Vegas is pretty good at setting the initial lines as well and that comes from understanding a typical season's win distribution (some teams will win 60, some will win 50, etc) and they have tons of data to help with that. Then you can tweak using the actual schedule to help match win expectations against how that could be accomplished.

    People will now look at the list and focus on some of the very close final lines, but there are some really bad misses in there too, and not just where the wins came in low (ie, injury, trade, issue wrecked the team). The Rockets and Wizards are both fascinating lowballs to me because both had reasons to think they would win more than those lines. 55 for Houston is really high, but why wasn't that line at least up around 48?


    I think the Pacers hit 33 but that's a tight over to put much money on. The Boston over is pretty tempting. I think an East team will win 60 this year and they are the most likely team to do it. There are so many bad East teams to get fat on.




    I find that establishing the structure of what a typical season (or NBA draft night) looks like first and then coming back around to fill those slots in with the parties involved works better than starting with my feelings of each team or player. Go into a draft KNOWING that there are 2-3 busts in the top 10, or maybe 1-2 steals between 10-20 and then its a bit easier to figure out who is most likely to be that thing. Ditto teams. If I say SOME team is going to win 65 because every year a team gets in that range, then it's easy to slot GSW into that spot. After you fill in all the slots you can go back and tweak up/down 1-2 wins max to dial in the slight variance.

    But if you start with the individuals first then you can talk yourself into lots of teams winning 60, or losing 60, whatever, even though history tells us that such things don't happen often. Just like we don't get drafts where all the top 10 picks go to the HOF and where the Lebron class is the outlier rather than the norm (and still included Darko).
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 08-31-2017 at 07:32 PM.

  26. #23
    Formerly PacerFanInAZ Cactus Jax's Avatar
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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    It shows you that generally Vegas is pretty good at predicting this sort of stuff...I mean the only ones that were double figures off were Houston up and Minnesota down.
    "It's just unfortunate that we've been penalized so much this year and nothing has happened to the Pistons, the Palace or the city of Detroit," he said. "It's almost like it's always our fault. The league knows it. They should be ashamed of themselves to let the security be as lax as it is around here."

    ----------------- Reggie Miller

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    Formerly PacerFanInAZ Cactus Jax's Avatar
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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    My guesses for this atm, could change before the season starts if there's another big trade.

    Over 60 wins

    Golden State Warriors - 67.5 --Under (just so hard to expect that many wins, an injury or two and they "only" win 65)

    Over 50 wins

    Boston Celtics - 56.5 (Under, think they struggle for a while adjusting)
    Houston Rockets - 55.5 (Under, big adjustments and lost depth)
    San Antonio Spurs - 54.5 (Over, they're the Spurs)
    Cleveland Cavaliers - 53.5 (Over, still got LeBron and more depth now with Crowder and Rose can handle the PG duties until IT is back)
    Oklahoma City Thunder - 51.5 (Under, same adjustment period and not sure of the Westbrook/PG fit)


    Over 40 wins

    Toronto Raptors - 48.5 (Over)
    Minnesota Timberwolves - 48.5 (Under, again adjustment period, think they'll make playoffs though)
    Milwaukee Bucks - 47.5 (Over, think they take the jump this year to 50)
    Washington Wizards - 47.5 (Over, get above 50)
    Denver Nuggets - 45.5 (Under)
    LA Clippers - 43.5 (Under)
    Miami Heat - 43.5 (Over)
    Charlotte Hornets - 42.5 (Under)
    Philadelphia 76ers - 42.5 (Under)
    Portland Trail Blazers- 42.5 (Over)
    Utah Jazz - 40.5 (Over)


    Over 30 wins

    New Orleans Pelicans - 39.5 (Under)
    Detroit Pistons - 38.5 (Over)
    Memphis Grizzlies - 37.5 (Under)
    Dallas Mavericks - 35.5 (Over)
    LA Lakers - 33.5 (Under)
    Orlando Magic - 33.5 (Over)
    Indiana Pacers - 31.5 (Under)
    New York Knicks - 30.5 (Under)


    Over 20 wins

    Phoenix Suns - 28.5 (Over)
    Brooklyn Nets - 28.5 (Over)
    Sacramento Kings - 28.5 (Over)
    Atlanta Hawks - 25.5 (Under)
    Chicago Bulls - 21.5 (Over)
    "It's just unfortunate that we've been penalized so much this year and nothing has happened to the Pistons, the Palace or the city of Detroit," he said. "It's almost like it's always our fault. The league knows it. They should be ashamed of themselves to let the security be as lax as it is around here."

    ----------------- Reggie Miller

  28. #25
    Intuition over Integers McKeyFan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Vegas - Westgate super bookk over/under for season

    How did the forum do last year in predicting the over/under on our wins?
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