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Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

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  • #31
    Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

    Originally posted by ksuttonjr76 View Post
    And there's always the chance that the pick will still be a bust, then you wasted an entire season for nothing....
    Though I am unaware of any formal study, empirical evidence seems to show that the average time in the tank for a team is about 5 years with no guarantee of being much better when they come out than they were when they went in. Very few teams successfully come out of the tank to be championship caliber. We focus on the examples of San Antonio (now almost 20 years ago), Cleveland (who took two tries even after getting LeBron), and Golden State (who were perennially bad before changing the game with Steph) and try to apply it as a hard-and-fast rule that can be sold to fans because it works.
    BillS

    A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
    Or throw in a first-round pick and flip it for a max-level point guard...

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    • #32
      Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

      No one has factored in injuries and the lack of chemistry. If you really think we are a .500 team you haven't looked at opposing rosters. DC will be outmatched most times. Victor might have an edge over many SGs, but teams can game plan easier against him than PG. Going under the screen, meeting him in the lane, and forching him left baseline. BoBo is a shooter that can be exposed on defense, his plus/minus might be horrible next year. Thad might have a better year, but he will have to work hard. And he isn't as young as he was with the 76ers. Myles and Lance are the wildcards. If any two players make us a 35 win team it is them. But can Lance shoot consistently? Will Turner be able to battle low with the Thompsons, Gortats, and Jonas'? Will they wear him down like last year.

      Our bench might be better on defense, but I can't imagine this team keeping leads.

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

        Originally posted by Peck View Post
        What happens when this club pushes .500 for the season? Will several people want to throw themselves off of the fieldhouse?
        I could see the pacers being around .500 until mid December (depending on the schedule). For whatever reason each season a few teams not expected to be even .500 are good through mid December but then they fall apart. if they are .500 at the midway point then I might take notice

        I'm on record as predicting 28 wins. We have no one who has proven they can score in the last 5 minutes of the fourth quarter. Defense likely will be solid, but no game changers there. Solid doesn't win games when you have an offense like this. Our defense might be around 12th best in the NBA, but our offense will be lucky to be around 20th - will likely be closer to 25th. And our rebounding will still stink.
        Last edited by Unclebuck; 07-26-2017, 10:11 AM.

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        • #34
          Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

          Originally posted by Ryan View Post
          2018 FA class is pretty crappy for small markets unless you're an Austin Rivers or Jeremy Lin kind of guy. Interested in seeing what happens with Boogie and Russ though.
          If I'm the Pacers I'm looking at Aaron Gordon, Cousins, Hood, Jabari and Deandre.
          @WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!

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          • #35
            Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

            Originally posted by Unclebuck View Post
            I'm on record as predicting 28 wins.
            This is where I am at. I think they will have a very similar season as the 2014-2015 Nuggets. Lawson, Affalo, Chandler, Gallo, and Blake Griffin's poster boy Mozgov. They went 30-52 and finished 13th in the West. Then they drafted Mudiay and missed on Myles and Booker. The next year they got Jamaal Murray. But their best players are Milsap (drafted 47th), Gary Harris (19th), and Jokic (41).

            It goes to show you not every player in the top 10 is a top 10 player. In fact you have a greater chance of missing on a player 5-9 than any time after that.

            The Denver nuggets got a player in FA, have young talent, and still might not make the playoffs in the West. If we follow the same pattern, which I think we are. The Pacers could be in the playoffs next year. And if we don't have the injuries that Denver had, we could be a top 4 team again. But that won't happen till 2019-2020 most likely.

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            • #36
              Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

              Originally posted by BillS View Post
              Though I am unaware of any formal study, empirical evidence seems to show that the average time in the tank for a team is about 5 years with no guarantee of being much better when they come out than they were when they went in. Very few teams successfully come out of the tank to be championship caliber. We focus on the examples of San Antonio (now almost 20 years ago), Cleveland (who took two tries even after getting LeBron), and Golden State (who were perennially bad before changing the game with Steph) and try to apply it as a hard-and-fast rule that can be sold to fans because it works.
              From what I have seen, not many teams have won championships after a tank job. The Spurs are an exception, because they lost their best player for the year. The Cavs don't count, because one of the greatest player of this time came back ala Jordan with the Bulls. Golden State, as you said, merely changed the game.

              I really think people are just more interested in trying to pick the next superstar in the draft, than believing that the pick will lead to a Championship. I have yet to see a rookie take a team to the NBA Finals let alone win it all. Then people forget how many years said team WASN'T making the playoffs, before making it back in. Personally, I like seeing the Pacers in the playoffs year after year.


              Remember when we could have gotten 1-2 solid players and a possible Top 3 draft pick in the 2017 NBA Draft by trading away Paul George?

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

                Originally posted by Unclebuck View Post
                I could see the pacers being around .500 until mid December (depending on the schedule). For whatever reason each season a few teams not expected to be even .500 are good through mid December but then they fall apart. if they are .500 at the midway point then I might take notice

                I'm on record as predicting 28 wins. We have no one who has proven they can score in the last 5 minutes of the fourth quarter. Defense likely will be solid, but no game changers there. Solid doesn't win games when you have an offense like this. Our defense might be around 12th best in the NBA, but our offense will be lucky to be around 20th - will likely be closer to 25th. And our rebounding will still stink.
                I don't dispute anything of what you are saying, even the highlighted part is possible. However I will ask, how can our rebounding be any worse than last season? Our starting backcourt last season of Ellis & Teague may very well have been the worst rebounding guard combo I have ever seen. Olidipo is an upgrade over both of them all by himself. Now if we start Collison or Joseph then I expect about the same as we got out of Teague. However, and I know you love him, whenever Lance plays in the back court we automatically win the rebounding battle of the guards because say whatever you like about his style or anything else but he can rebound at a good clip for a guard.

                Sabonis will be more consistent IMO than Allen ever was and I hope that Turner is better but if not well he still managed to get 7 a game.

                As to anything else, I see a huge talent drop from Paul George to anyone else. This is without dispute.

                However IMO I see an overall talent increase in the rest of the team. Our back court last season was disgusting to watch, period. Jeff had a stretch in January that he was playing at near all star clip on the offensive end but just never really meshed with the team.

                Here is what I know. I never have to see Ellis, Allen, Stuckey or Miles play on the court as a Pacer again. To me this is an upgrade almost all by itself.

                I don't know what I am predicting for a w/l total this season but I just think your 28 is a little low. Under O'Brien I don't think we ever won only 28 games and this team has more talent that several of those teams. While Nate isn't John Wooden or anything I don't think he is a complete dunce of a coach.


                Basketball isn't played with computers, spreadsheets, and simulations. ChicagoJ 4/21/13

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                • #38
                  Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

                  Originally posted by Peck View Post
                  However IMO I see an overall talent increase in the rest of the team.
                  The problem is you can only play 5 players at one time against other teams five players. And we simply will not have the best player on the court most games, if not all the games. I really think the sum of talent is overvalued in the offseason and realized in the thick of the season. We simply will not have a player who can push us through droughts. We don't have a coach who is great at scheming against the best players. And we lack perimeter shooting and rebounding.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

                    Originally posted by ksuttonjr76 View Post
                    What? You wouldn't want a Boogie/Turner in the middle in the Eastern Conference? Man, I'd roll the dice on that all day, everyday. What frontcourt can compete against him one on one while still worrying about Turner?
                    No, I honestly wouldn't. Boogie is a massive pain in the *** and he has zero positional versatility. Myles does a little, but they mostly play the same position and the early returns pairing Boogie with another big aren't great.

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                    • #40
                      Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

                      Originally posted by Major Cold View Post
                      The problem is you can only play 5 players at one time against other teams five players. And we simply will not have the best player on the court most games, if not all the games. I really think the sum of talent is overvalued in the offseason and realized in the thick of the season. We simply will not have a player who can push us through droughts. We don't have a coach who is great at scheming against the best players. And we lack perimeter shooting and rebounding.
                      As the old saying goes, that's why they play the games. Time will tell. I looked at last years team and thought we would be worse than we were because I honestly mostly thought the talent was putrid. So I may be giving this current group to much credit, I don't know.

                      Either way I will enjoy watching this team play more because as I listed above those players are no longer here as I just could not stand the malaise that they brought to the floor. (not including Miles, he always tried but just was never my kind of player). But the rest of them? I think we improved on every single player.


                      Basketball isn't played with computers, spreadsheets, and simulations. ChicagoJ 4/21/13

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

                        Originally posted by Peck View Post
                        As the old saying goes, that's why they play the games. Time will tell. I looked at last years team and thought we would be worse than we were because I honestly mostly thought the talent was putrid. So I may be giving this current group to much credit, I don't know.

                        Either way I will enjoy watching this team play more because as I listed above those players are no longer here as I just could not stand the malaise that they brought to the floor. (not including Miles, he always tried but just was never my kind of player). But the rest of them? I think we improved on every single player.
                        Does this have anything to do with the Pacers FO thinking Sabonis is the new age Dale Davis?

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                        • #42
                          Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

                          Originally posted by Peck View Post
                          But the rest of them? I think we improved on every single player.
                          I get it. Sabonis is better than Lavoy. CoJo is better than Brooks. Victor is better than Monta. GRIII should be better. Myles should be better. But the talent drop from PG to BoBo and Lance is so much greater that we could be a 35 win team if all the stars align. How often has that happened with us? With Nate McMillian as a coach for any team? For a team who has great talent, but young talent. Young talent is inconsistent and subject to exploitation by vets.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

                            Originally posted by Peck View Post
                            I don't dispute anything of what you are saying, even the highlighted part is possible. However I will ask, how can our rebounding be any worse than last season? Our starting backcourt last season of Ellis & Teague may very well have been the worst rebounding guard combo I have ever seen. Olidipo is an upgrade over both of them all by himself. Now if we start Collison or Joseph then I expect about the same as we got out of Teague. However, and I know you love him, whenever Lance plays in the back court we automatically win the rebounding battle of the guards because say whatever you like about his style or anything else but he can rebound at a good clip for a guard.

                            Sabonis will be more consistent IMO than Allen ever was and I hope that Turner is better but if not well he still managed to get 7 a game.

                            As to anything else, I see a huge talent drop from Paul George to anyone else. This is without dispute.

                            However IMO I see an overall talent increase in the rest of the team. Our back court last season was disgusting to watch, period. Jeff had a stretch in January that he was playing at near all star clip on the offensive end but just never really meshed with the team.

                            Here is what I know. I never have to see Ellis, Allen, Stuckey or Miles play on the court as a Pacer again. To me this is an upgrade almost all by itself.

                            I don't know what I am predicting for a w/l total this season but I just think your 28 is a little low. Under O'Brien I don't think we ever won only 28 games and this team has more talent that several of those teams. While Nawte isn't John Wooden or anything I don't think he is a complete dunce of a coach.

                            Only 3 teams were worse rebounding teams last season than the Pacers. So yeah, we might be slightly better, but won't be better than 20th in a 30 team league. The worst season under JOB was 32 wins and the other two seasons were 36 wins each. On the 32 win team we had Granger who averaged almost 25 per game. We have no one close to that. Going into this season the Pacers best player whoever that is the worst best player on any Pacers teams since the 80's. Hopefully Myles, Dipo or whoever prove me wrong, but I don't see a team winning many games with this roster.

                            I think the reason why I am predicting fewer wins than most people is because the pacers season will be very dependent upon Lance. Lance is the only player on the roster who can create shots. We lost our two best players and creators from last years team. Dipo is a finisher, not a creator. Our point guards are decent shooters, but aren't creators. So that leaves Lance running the offense and I see that as a possible disaster.
                            Last edited by Unclebuck; 07-26-2017, 01:16 PM.

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                            • #44
                              Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

                              I also think we could be the worse team in turnover ratio. Paul turned over the ball a lot, but with the current roster we lack chemistry. And that will mean people without experience will force the offense. Lance has never had a team to carry for an entire season. Neither has Myles. Victor might have in Orlando and Thad did in Orlando. Look at their records. 19 wins and 25. And you all think we will win 35 games? Granted it could be better than 25, but how much better?

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                              • #45
                                Re: Barring surprises, the Indiana Pacers roster is built to tank this season

                                Don't get the consternation over potential mediocrity. Either the squad will be garbage and will be rewarded with a high pick, or some of the young guys outperform expectation, prove they belong in the league, and we outperform predictions.

                                Win-Win.

                                Being mediocre sucks when capped out and when the potential of the squad is maxed out. Im all for the blow it up and tank then. But if a team stacked with young guys somehow gets to .500 it means there is some undervalued talent there.
                                "I’m your favorite player’s favorite player. And it’s not enough for me for him to know that. I want the world to know that." -- Michael Beasley

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