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Thread: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

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    Member bread's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    The kid seems more level-headed about it than the mother. Mom wants someone to show her the money... NOW!

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    Member Knucklehead Warrior's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    OK, I need to have something explained to me.

    Is there ANY chance that any of these HSers would or could play pro ball during this year of purgatory? Overseas maybe? If they could, does it make sense given the risk of injury, despite the return of more experience? I'm assuming that, except in the case of hardship, no one's doing it for the money.

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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    I don't think his mom is really as she is portrayed. From what I understand, she didn't want the rule changed because she really wanted all of the options to be up to Oden, with none of those options decided for him.

    Oden brings up an important point. What if the player gets injured or does not live up to expectations during his one year of college?

    Because of that, I don't think the NBA did everyone justice at all by choosing the age of 19. It should either have been 20 (2 years of college), or should have been left alone.

    If I'm a recent graduate who would most likely have been a first round choice, I probably would not go to college for the single year. There are too many downsides to that. Instead, I'll probably choose to attend a prep school for the single year, where I can continue to dominate the competition. That way, I probably would be protecting my draft position.

    If the minimum age were 20, then I thijk colleges would be more likely to recruit the players that are almost certain to be first round draft choices. And, I think more of those players would be willing to attend college instead of opting for prep school or some other alternative.

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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    Quote Originally Posted by beast23
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    Oden brings up an important point. What if the player gets injured or does not live up to expectations during his one year of college?

    The NBA is actually hoping for them to not live up to expectations their first year. Stern talked at halftime about trying to raise the overall quality of play in the NBA. By having hyped HS kids go to college, realize they were a big fish in a small pond, and actually stay in school to develop more will have them more prepared to make an impact when they are ready to make the jump.


    Not saying I agree, but in theory it works.

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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    Quote Originally Posted by Knucklehead Warrior
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    OK, I need to have something explained to me.

    Is there ANY chance that any of these HSers would or could play pro ball during this year of purgatory? Overseas maybe? If they could, does it make sense given the risk of injury, despite the return of more experience? I'm assuming that, except in the case of hardship, no one's doing it for the money.
    They can play in the NBDL at age 18. That would be the best, but most challenging decision, as he'd be playing against players already drafted.
    "It's just unfortunate that we've been penalized so much this year and nothing has happened to the Pistons, the Palace or the city of Detroit," he said. "It's almost like it's always our fault. The league knows it. They should be ashamed of themselves to let the security be as lax as it is around here."

    ----------------- Reggie Miller

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    Grumpy Old Man (PD host) able's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    ok let's put up another balloon:

    Player X leaves school at 18, can not go to college, for whatever reason academic, but would've been a likely lottery pick.


    Team Y offers him a "nice" contract in the NBDL franchise, with a "guarantee" for a contract (say 2 years or more) with the NBA franchise for a lucrative amount (compare to #1 pick)

    interesting way of getting a lottery pick if you are not a lottery team.....
    So Long And Thanks For All The Fish.

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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86
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    The NBA is actually hoping for them to not live up to expectations their first year. Stern talked at halftime about trying to raise the overall quality of play in the NBA. By having hyped HS kids go to college, realize they were a big fish in a small pond, and actually stay in school to develop more will have them more prepared to make an impact when they are ready to make the jump.

    Not saying I agree, but in theory it works.
    I think it's pretty obvious what the NBA's impetus is. They are hoping for fewer "busts" and they are also trying to save time on the individual teams' stafss by "keeping them out of high school" gyms.

    But the point is, draft guru's will continue to grade high school players. And if I'm graded a top 5, I wouldn't risk the year at college.

    I'd instead go to prep school where I'm going to look good, then go into the draft the following year. Why would I go to college a year, even though I might improve, and risk looking average against the better competition.

    That could mean the difference between a guaranteed contract of $10M and maybe being a low first rounder or a second rounder, where I receive very little guaranteed money, or no guaranteed money at all.

    Now, if the age were 20 instead of 19, a player would be forced into college ball or overseas, where the scouts will get a much better look at their potential. But with the age at 19, players still can "fool the system".

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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    Quote Originally Posted by beast23
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    I think it's pretty obvious what the NBA's impetus is. They are hoping for fewer "busts" and they are also trying to save time on the individual teams' stafss by "keeping them out of high school" gyms.

    But the point is, draft guru's will continue to grade high school players. And if I'm graded a top 5, I wouldn't risk the year at college.

    I'd instead go to prep school where I'm going to look good, then go into the draft the following year. Why would I go to college a year, even though I might improve, and risk looking average against the better competition.

    That could mean the difference between a guaranteed contract of $10M and maybe being a low first rounder or a second rounder, where I receive very little guaranteed money, or no guaranteed money at all.

    Now, if the age were 20 instead of 19, a player would be forced into college ball or overseas, where the scouts will get a much better look at their potential. But with the age at 19, players still can "fool the system".
    Yes, they'll continue grading HSers just like people will continue grading 5th graders. But now every scouting report on a HS player will end the same: "We'll see what one year in college will do for them."

    I'm not necessarily arguing for the age limit, but I can definately see where they're coming from. I feel very sorry for a player like LeBron, but for every LBJ there's ten players that sit at the end of the bench and wave a towel like Darko. (not trying to get a punch in on the Pistons, he's just the most recognizable figure of coming in too early.)

    I dont' think they'll be able to fool the system. They're going to get played by it way more than they're going to take advantage. There's very few freshman that come into college and make a big name for themselves in one year. I think they're overall stock would probably drop a few notches. Whether or not they drop enough to stay in school, still remains to be seen but I'm leaning towards more players will stay atleast two years.

    With that said, I've been in favor of Oden going to college all along. I've watched him play in a couple AAU tournaments, and while he has quite a bit of potential left, he's just not ready PERIOD. He's too skinny, and way way way to raw on the inside to do anything in the league for a couple years. He has great FT form, but in all the games I've seen him play, I've yet to see him hit anything outside of 6ft.

    I hate the way Mr. Basketball broke down, Dominic James should of won by huge numbers, but Luke Zeller is a better overall big man. He's not nearly as athletic, but he can step outside and shoot from HS and college 3pt and has a pretty good passing ability.

    I'll tell you guys what though. Start watching for Marquette to make waves next year, with James getting compared to Wade.

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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    Odom's fairly bright, isn't he?

    Seems to me he should go to college and workout on his own but *not* play organized ball so he doesn't (1) get hurt, or (2) show any limitations that haven't yet been revealed. But he shouldn't even be on the team's roster - if he redshirts or rides the pine that can't be good for him, financially.

    Jon Bender was the original Bracey Wright. What if Jon had gone to school? His stock would've fallen every season. There's a reason Odom's family is concerned.
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  10. #10
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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    Quote Originally Posted by able
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    ok let's put up another balloon:

    Player X leaves school at 18, can not go to college, for whatever reason academic, but would've been a likely lottery pick.


    Team Y offers him a "nice" contract in the NBDL franchise, with a "guarantee" for a contract (say 2 years or more) with the NBA franchise for a lucrative amount (compare to #1 pick)

    interesting way of getting a lottery pick if you are not a lottery team.....

    if the kid goes to the nbdl he still will have to be drafted when he turns 19...a team wont retain his draft rights because an nbdl team they are affiliated with signs him to a contract....as stated there will be 2 teams eventually affiliated with an nbdl team anyway....

    what it does do is make the acquiring of these guys very interesting....can u imagine what happens to an nbdl franchise that might get oden when hes 18??? think they might have a few fans in the stands???? and how is it determined who gets oden? is the nbdl gonna have a draft? i was not under the impression that they have one, but it would certainly seem the need now exists for one....not that these kids wanna go to the nbdl for a year...

    i really , really dont like this age limit rule....it surely takes the onus of the owners,thats for sure....but it really really throws these kids in a position that almost encourages them to do the wrong thing.....

    oden is the number one pick in 06.....why do anything to risk that...so its like what can he do for a year that provides the least risk to that honor and spot....instead of what can he do to get better....

    and what really really bothers me is this....the whole rationale that is passed off by the nba is this....keep coaches and scouts out of high school gyms....thats a crock and we all know it....its to keep the owners from themselves....and they bought an extra year...


    the way this all played out....the nba was really exposed for being the hypocrites they really are...

  11. #11
    Grumpy Old Man (PD host) able's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    I think you are overlooking that the draft isnot the only way a player can enter the NBA, it brings guarantees, but it is my opinion that that will be a lot less in the future.

    Imagine the scenario I sketched, think of what reason such a player would have to go in the draft.

    indeed, none.
    So Long And Thanks For All The Fish.

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    Then why not have Breakfast at Milliways!


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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    I think this rule will cause more players to go to prep school for a year where they can still dominate and keep their names in front of the scout's. They will still be dominate because the competition won't be as good.
    "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."
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    Member Vicious Tyrant's Avatar
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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    If I understand it correctly, a player still has to wait a year if he (or she, I guess) is 19 when they graduate HS. Is that correct? It seems to me the prep school option is out.

    btw, I've saw Oden play the previous season and he looked like he could really use some more bulking up and technique. I doubt one more year in high school did what needed to be done about that.
    "If you ever crawl inside an old hollow log and go to sleep, and while you're in there some guys come and seal up both ends and then put it on a truck and take it to another city, boy, I don't know what to tell you." - Jack Handy

  14. #14
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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    I just heard on the radio that Oden is going to go to Ohio State. Why in the hell would he go there? I thought for sure he'd go somewhere like Duke.

  15. #15
    foretaz
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    Default Re: Top pick in '06? The NBA says no

    maybe the pacers should start trying to acquire unprotected 1st round picks for 2007 ....preferably from the hawks and the hornets....

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