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Since I started playing fantasy basketball four years ago I have enjoyed watching other teams play. One of those teams is the Denver Nuggets. With the other teams I kind of just laid things out & let the analysis unfold. With the Nuggets I think I already know what player the Bobcats will take. Lets see if it plays out the way I think.
As always, I am using info from three main sources for this series.
Charlotte will receive lists from each of the 27 teams not competing in the NBA Finals 10 days prior to the scheduled Expansion Draft (June 12) and those from the competing teams in the Finals within two days of the conclusion of the Finals. Team lists will designate a maximum of eight protected players for that teamís players under contract or restricted free agents for the 2004-05 NBA season. The unprotected players are eligible for selection by the Bobcats, who will draft a minimum of 14 players from NBA rosters.
Of the 15 players on the Nuggets roster, REAL GM list 6 as being free agents, none of them are restricted.
That would leave 9 players with contracts for next season. Of those, only Marcus Camby has a player option. I have heard he is thinking about opting out but as of now I will consider him as being under contract for next season. Simply because he is, until he exercises the opt out clause.
Here are the Nuggets under contract for the 04-05 season.
Marcus Camby ---------- $7,750,000
Andre Miller -------------- $5,760,000
Carmelo Anthony ------- $3,471,360
Voshon Lenard ---------- $3,000,000
Nikoloz Tskitishvili ------- $2,910,600
Earl Boykins --------------- Not Listed
NenÍ ----------------------- $2,413,320
Ryan Bowen --------------- Not Listed
Francisco Elson ------------- $620,046
These are the 6 free agents that the Nuggets can not protect.
I've been calling the first group, no brainers, because, I think without question this group will be protected.
Camby, Miller, Anthony & Nene
Voshon Lenard is the starting 2 & if the figures are right, is a steal at $3M. He should be player #5.
Some of you know that I've been a big fan of Boykins for a few years now. He really changes the game when he comes in. No way they leave him off the list. Boykins is player #6.
Francisco Elson has shown a lot of promise this year & at just a few nickels over 620K is a must to make the list. Elson makes 7.
Seldom does the final spot just pop out at ya, this one is no exception.
We come down to either Nikoloz Tskitishvili or Ryan Bowen. Tskitishvili is the western conference version of Jonathan Bender. A #5 pick in the 2002 draft, he has yet to "get it".
Bowen is the guy every coach needs one of. Mr. Hard Hat. The dude seldom plays but when he does he is gonna give you a 100% solid effort. Scrapy on D & can get hustle points at the offensive end.
Tskitishvili has a max of 3 years remaining on his contract, there is a team option after next year. I would guess Bowen will be around $1.4M next season & that will be the last year of his deal.
Before I started this I was sure that the Nuggets would leave Tskitishvili unprotected & that the Bobcats would take him. Now I'm not so sure. I think Denver doesn't want to give up on him just yet & if he doesn't pan out next season they just won't pick up his option. Tskitishvili is the 8th player on the protected list.
Bowen is left out there for Charlotte & the Bobcats will take him.
Here is the Expansion Draft as of now.
Atlanta --------- No Pick
Boston --------- C Kedrick Perkins
Chicago -------- No Pick
Cleveland ------ G Kevin Ollie
Dallas ---------- G Tony Delk
Denver --------- F Ryan Bowen
I wonder, though, if making Tscitchsheiveallli available wouldn't work. If they (appear to) give up on the guy completely, might the Bobcats think twice about selecting him?
Anyway, you da man Jose.
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Good work again James! It's a good thing you like to do this type stuff because it is work!
I was sure Denver was going to leave Francisco Elson unprotected, but not since Marcus Camby refused to go on the Injured list. That got me to thinking maybe they would leave Camby unprotected. He could always opt out and resign with Denver.
Also, Elson plays center when Camby doesn't play so if Denver leaves Elson unprotected they could lose both centers if Camby walks. That wouldn't be to smart on their part.
I was going by Hoopshype and didn't realize Bowen and Boykins were under contract next year. I agree with your guess on Bowen's salary next year, but I can't find anything on Boykin's. Either way, I too now think it will be Bowen.
I'm gonna go out on a limb here & predict something off the wall.
I think the Nuggets leave Vashon Leonard unprotected & that the Bobcats don't pick him.
Vashon has two years left on his contract & I think his age & history of knee problems will deter the Bobcats from taking him.
I think it's a calculated risk that Nuggets will be willing to take, ala the Pacers & Byron Scott, but I don't think the Cats will be willing to bite. Vashon has no history of championships & has never been known as a leader. He's no trouble maker either, btw.
I'm probably wrong about this one, but it's one I'm taking.
So my picks.
Atlanta - no pick
Boston - Jumaine Jones
Chicago - Chris Jeffries
Cleveland - Kedrick Brown
Dallas - Tony Delk
Denver - no pick
Basketball isn't played with computers, spreadsheets, and simulations. ChicagoJ 4/21/13
Lenard was one I thought might be left unprotected as well but he's been a good bargin for them. I pretty much agree that Bowen or Tsk. will be the unprotected guy but I can't see them giving up on Tsk. so soon.
I have to agree that Bowen will be left unprotected but I don't think Charlotte will bite.
Atlanta - No Pick
Boston - Kedrick Perkins
Chicago - No Pick _or_ Robinson + Draft Pick
Cleveland - No Pick
Dallas - Tony Delk
Denver - No Pick
Also, these threads are slowly being moved to the Forum Archive section so we can conviently go back and see what we predicted once the expansion draft goes down.