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Thread: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

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    Default Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Atlanta Hawks : Millsap is sure to exercise his player option – will Hawks let him go or try to re-sign? I expect the latter – preferably via sign&trade. They are an aging team not able to get over the hump of real contend-hood as they are constructed now and keeping Millsap (including just keeping his cap-hold in books) will prevent any moves to improve in free agency (they would be above the cap).

    Without Millsap, they can easily retain the rest of their free agents if they wish. That means that RFAs Hardaway & Muscala stay (barring some other team paying apeshit for them) while Sefolosha is likely to be released as he is too old to make sense for a re-building team.

    Free agents available : Millsap, Sefolosha, Ilyasova?


    Boston Celtics
    : In a great position of having max.salary cap-space and a contending team for free agents to like... They can even likely retain at least two out of three from free agents to be : Amir, Olynyk, Jerebko.

    The rumors that they will go all-in for Hayward seem sensible enough – failing that, I could see f ex Gallinari + PJ Tucker fitting into C's salary room. Blake Griffin as a dark horse?
    Free agents available : Only whomever is deemed surplus... Gerald Green James Young


    Brooklyn Nets : Some light at the end of the corridor? They got a full roster, no one to renew, some 25 mil in salary room and couple of non-guaranteed contracts to shed if opportunity presents itself.

    Additionally – they basically are open for improvements in ANY position barring maybe the center (and youth movement would be welcome even there). Look for Brooklyn to actively chase ”value-deals” on capable players at 10-mil range who somehow slip thru' cracks...

    Free agents available : Nothing to interest ANYONE!


    Chicago Bulls : Will D-Wade stay or exercise his player option? That is a 24 Mil question which everything basically rotates around... Seems improbable/impossible any team would fork such money for Wade in free agency anymore, but once-great players often have still-great egos so maybe Dwyane really believes he can both a) make that money and b) play for contender. 50/50-situation IMO.

    If Wade stays, Bulls are probably best served to stay pat for a year, let the disastrous Wade/Rondo -experience run out and recharge in Summer'18.

    But if Wade bolts??? Bulls would suddenly have 40+ Mil in salary cap, still got Jimmy Butler as a ”selling point” & only Rondo as a ”contract albatross”. That would be a nice base to try for an immediate turn-around.

    Free agents available : Probably quite a few – I don't see Bulls fighting to keep Mirotic or MCW. Overpay/speculate just a little bit and any of them is available. Anthony Morrow is on a way out of the league.


    Charlotte Hornets : The most boring free-agency team around. Way above the salary cap – so not in play. Way below luxury tax – so no panic. No free agents to mention.

    That is not to say that Hornets may not look to spice things up with some trades – but as far as free agency go, they are absolutely irrelevant both as a bidder and loser.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Millsap I don't think our chances are good though.

    Thabo could be a fit, in theory. Still a solid player.

    Mirotic, maybe? I don't understand why he's so bad this year. Also, he could be restricted, though it doesn't seem like the Bulls want to keep him.

    A request. Since you're already going through team by team, how about listing the guys with salary dump potential too? Guys like Bazemore, for example. Maybe even guys like Brook Lopez, though he won't be a pure salary dump. Hmm, kinda hard to draw the line.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    Millsap I don't think our chances are good though.
    Hindsight, spilled milk etc. but didn't he sign with the Hawks for essentially the same money as West in 2013 but for less years.....
    Last edited by Downtown Bang!; 03-13-2017 at 03:10 PM.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    If Hayward has the chance to get back together with Stevens - nobody else has a chance at him.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by PacerDude View Post
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    If Hayward has the chance to get back together with Stevens - nobody else has a chance at him.
    I doubt he passes up an opportunity to play at home in front of friends and family for an opportunity to join his college coach. I think for players in most cases? Playing at home gives them a good balance in a tough 82 game season. Because you can visit family and stuff. Stevens has a job to do so you're not gonna have his shoulder to cry on in those those tough moments of the 82 game grind. Look how important going home was for Lebron.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
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    I doubt he passes up an opportunity to play at home in front of friends and family for an opportunity to join his college coach. I think for players in most cases? Playing at home gives them a good balance in a tough 82 game season. Because you can visit family and stuff. Stevens has a job to do so you're not gonna have his shoulder to cry on in those those tough moments of the 82 game grind. Look how important going home was for Lebron.
    The obvious question is whether we can afford to even offer him the MAX in the first place.

    I will leave it to Salary Cap experts like wintermute and PetPaima to let us know whether there is even a chance that we can dump AlJeff and Monta for nothing ( which I doubt can happen ), while offering a NEAR MAX ( at the very least...if not more ) to Teague and then figure out how to offer an extension for a MAX offer for PG13 in the coming months.

    That's 3 MAX level contracts on the book for Teague ( Near MAX ), Hayward and PG13. My guess is that it's near impossible to consider such a scenario where we can be in a position to make such a run in the coming months.
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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by CableKC View Post
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    The obvious question is whether we can afford to even offer him the MAX in the first place.

    I will leave it to Salary Cap experts like wintermute and PetPaima to let us know whether there is even a chance that we can dump AlJeff and Monta for nothing ( which I doubt can happen ), while offering a NEAR MAX ( at the very least...if not more ) to Teague and then figure out how to offer an extension for a MAX offer for PG13 in the coming months.

    That's 3 MAX level contracts on the book for Teague ( Near MAX ), Hayward and PG13. My guess is that it's near impossible to consider such a scenario where we can be in a position to make such a run in the coming months.


    Well the cap jumps (#1 and #2) were supposed to give teams a better shot at having max deals and adding more talent. There is a way to get Hayward and extend Paul and re-sign Teague. I don't see Hayward getting "crazy" money. For example... do you think Hayward should get paid as much as Steph Curry? Or Dame Lillard? I don't. I am not sure what Hayward's market value is. He's a good player. But Paul does far more than he does. Defensively, and offensively. Hayward doesn't have the takeover capability that Paul does. Also Paul in the clutch this season has been brilliant. Hayward it seems is not a guy who they can give the ball to in a pressure situation and let him just "work" his man.

    Hayward is more of a shooter. A guy who floats around the perimeter and is dangerous. He can drive too but he is not on Paul's level as an all-around elite talent. Gordon has only scored 30 points 22 times in his career thus far. Paul has scored 30 points in his career 48 times thus far. Now the market dictates that you overpay guys now. But I don't see Hayward as a super-max guy. I think $23 to 25 mil is about what he's worth. Right around what Batum got last Summer.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    If you want to sign Hayward, it's going to take the max. This isn't a new development people. Oh, and the max contract the Pacers can offer is 4 years/$132 million.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by cdash View Post
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    If you want to sign Hayward, it's going to take the max. This isn't a new development people. Oh, and the max contract the Pacers can offer is 4 years/$132 million.
    You're most likely right but do you feel he's worth over $30 mil per season? I would gladly move Al and Monta to add Hayward but in the event that you can only move Al, I just don't feel Hayward as a player is worth that kind of money.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
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    You're most likely right but do you feel he's worth over $30 mil per season? I would gladly move Al and Monta to add Hayward but in the event that you can only move Al, I just don't feel Hayward as a player is worth that kind of money.
    He's worth it.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
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    I doubt he passes up an opportunity to play at home in front of friends and family for an opportunity to join his college coach. I think for players in most cases? Playing at home gives them a good balance in a tough 82 game season. Because you can visit family and stuff. Stevens has a job to do so you're not gonna have his shoulder to cry on in those those tough moments of the 82 game grind. Look how important going home was for Lebron.
    How many players sign with their hometown team when they can? I'm guessing its a very low percentage.

    Some people very much value being with the hometown team. Many others couldn't care less.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    Millsap I don't think our chances are good though.

    Thabo could be a fit, in theory. Still a solid player.

    Mirotic, maybe? I don't understand why he's so bad this year. Also, he could be restricted, though it doesn't seem like the Bulls want to keep him.

    A request. Since you're already going through team by team, how about listing the guys with salary dump potential too? Guys like Bazemore, for example. Maybe even guys like Brook Lopez, though he won't be a pure salary dump. Hmm, kinda hard to draw the line.

    TBH, we don't have much of a chance to get ANYone...

    And yes, I will comment on "salary dumps" as soon as I get to any team which is likely to perform such. (Detroit will be 1st)

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Awesome View Post
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    How many players sign with their hometown team when they can? I'm guessing its a very low percentage.

    Some people very much value being with the hometown team. Many others couldn't care less.
    True. But it depends on reasons. Some people don't go home because of pressure. Other people have "unsavory" characters in their circle back home. For other people they fear the clingers who'll be hitting them up for stuff all the time. Other folks have none of these problems. They're the lucky ones. Also we're trying to sign him away from Utah. Not Miami, or New York or even L.A..... Utah.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
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    True. But it depends on reasons. Some people don't go home because of pressure. Other people have "unsavory" characters in their circle back home. For other people they fear the clingers who'll be hitting them up for stuff all the time. Other folks have none of these problems. They're the lucky ones. Also we're trying to sign him away from Utah. Not Miami, or New York or even L.A..... Utah.
    If only that was the only thing that mattered when it comes to signing a player.

    The chances of Hayward signing here are very minimal. Is there a chance? Maybe. But I wouldn't count on it.
    Last edited by Dr. Awesome; 03-14-2017 at 11:24 AM.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
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    Also we're trying to sign him away from Utah. Not Miami, or New York or even L.A..... Utah.
    From what I've seen, he's settled down quite nicely in Utah. Married (no idea where she's from), kids - and SLC is really a nice place. He doesn't seem like the kind that would need the big city to be happy. Wouldn't shock me if he just stayed there.
    Last edited by PacerDude; 03-13-2017 at 06:14 PM.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Cleveland Cavaliers : Not only over the cap, but over the tax threshold as well. Question – Will they try to retain Korver? They will pay 2,5 x each dollar they give out... Other than that – hunting for ring-chaser veterans on minimum contracts.

    Free agents available : Korver? Derrick/Deron Williamses?


    Dallas Mavericks : Can and absolutely will splash the money for Nerlens Noel. Long-term max. Contract – no doubts.

    And as long as Nowitzki doesn't decide to retire – that will be that. They could of course exercise the Team Option on Dirk's contract , re-negotiate a much cheaper one , try to get some salary room to strengthen the team and all that. But it would still fall woefully short of any serious improvement.

    The bond between Mavs & Dirk (Cuban & Dirk) is so strong that I either see a swansong season with a reasonably good, marginally playoff-worthy outfit or a retirement already in upcoming summer. ...and when Dirk finally goes, then Dallas will start anew... Nucleus is already forming in Wes-Barnes-Noel.

    Free agents available : NONE


    Denver Nuggets : One of the most interesting teams to watch this off-season. Will take a long write-up and gets it''s own post later.


    Detroit Pistons : Our resident Piston-specialist (Kstat) seems pretty convinced that a) they like KCP (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) a lot and will do whatever is necessary to keep him. But if that takes a max. Contract, it will push Pistons into a luxury tax territory. Not by much, but nevertheless...

    That has following repercussions : 1) Reggie Bullock will likely be available to any bidder (despite his RFA-status), 2) Much more importantly, I expect Detroit looking for a way to replace either Reggie Jackson or Tobias Harris with someone making 8-10 million less.

    Free agents available : Reggie Bullock, Beno Udrih (meh)

    Potential salary dumps available : Reggie Jackson, Tobias Harris


    Golden State Warriors : Well, basically whole team will be free agents. Dubs have just 5 players under contract for next season (Klay, Draymond, Damian Jones, McCaw & Looney). A playoff collapse this season might change the scenery quicker than basketball bounces, but let's assume Durant & Curry both will re-sign with Warriors. Even if signing is delayed, just the cap holds of these two would restrict Warriors to a war kitty of about 10 mil in free agency. Enough to add a solid veteran – yes. Enough to justify renouncing Iggy, Livingston AND Pachulia. Probably not.

    So, at this point I expect GSW to resemble Cavs (only targetting ring-chasers on minimum contracts) and putting their effort in re-signing their current players.

    Free agents available (in order of likelihood) : Likely = David West, J.M.McAdoo / Possible = Iggy, Pachulia / Unlikely = Durant, Livingston, Javale McGee, Ian Clark / Hell no = Curry


    Houston Rockets : On 1st glance, Rockets are not a sexy discussion point for next free agency. Only pending free agents are Nene & Bobby Brown. Otoh, they only have some 8 mil available under the projected cap which is of course too little for major acquisition..

    But but – IF Rockets will get a hint of being positioned in f ex Durant-sweepstakes, they absolutely CAN open up a max. space by waiving couple of non-guaranteed contracts and salary dumping Ryan Anderson. That will likely cost them some, but it is perfectly doable.

    Free agents available : I doubt it...

    Potential salary dumps available : Highly speculative, but Ryan Anderson could be. And team with room to take him inside cap (= no necessity to send salaries back) could get a REALLY SWEET deal.


    P.S. I assume that only teams with serious title aspirations will be "happy" to even pay a tax. Golden State, Cleveland definitely are ready to do so... In right circumstances, Toronto/Washington/Utah/Clippers/Houston might also do so... I also assume that f ex Detroit will not pay luxury tax for their current line-up!
    Last edited by PetPaima; 03-13-2017 at 06:16 PM.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by cdash View Post
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    He's worth it.
    I'm old school. IMO, only a very players are worth more than 25 million.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    INDIANA PACERS :

    We will enter the free agency at above the salary cap and unable to make any offers as :

    1) We have $57,925,047 of guaranteed contracts for next season. That sum includes PG13, Thad, Monta, AlJeff, Myles and 50,000 bucks for Xmas.
    2) We have $16,572,675 bound in optional contracts of Stuckey, CJ & Lavoy
    3) We have $6,022,065 bound in non-guaranteed contracts of Seraphin, JoeYoung, GRIII and Niang + the non-guaranteed mil of Xmas
    4) We have $18,330,000 bound on cap holds of Teague & Brooks
    5) We have rookie cap holds

    So altogether we will start around 101 mil before starting to ”drop” guys. Cap is likeliest to be about 98 mil.

    Step 1) renounce Brooks – opens up 5,130,000. 2 million under the cap
    Step 2) CJ picks his option, becomes a cap hold. Add 4,125,105. Back over the cap.
    Step 3) Stuckey does not pick his option. Monetarily you stay where you were.

    Step 4) Re-sign Teague & CJ with the Bird Rights. Pay an approximate 30 mil for that duo. End up very close to a luxury tax threshold (but probably below) with the draft pick as the only new asset.

    Alternative step 4) Renounce CJ's rights, do NOT pick Lavoy's option, waive 2 non-guaranteed contracts (Seraphin/JoeYoung). End up roughly 14 mil under the cap. Make a pitch for some 2nd tier free agent (or two). Afterwards sign Teague with Bird rights, end up with something like presented below. Avoid luxury tax too... :

    PG : Teague, Monta
    SG : 1st-round pick, GRIII, Stuckey
    SF : PG13, 2nd-round pick
    PF : Thad, Jerebko, Xmas
    C : Myles, Pachulia, AlJeff


    Alternative step 4, version 2) Like above, but also renounce Teague... Get room for 1 x max. Contract under the salary cap. Swing for the fences for difference-maker and fill the rest with minimum contracts + (no-longer-so-useful) MLE.


    Salary dump candidates : If our FO wants to simultaneously retain Teague AND add even a single top-level player, we need to do some salary dumping. Monta, AlJeff and Stuckey will be hard to move for salary relief (yes, you can always move players but not so easily when you don't want to take any salary back). Thad might be little easier to move, but would also leave a sizable frontcourt hole.

    Worth mentioning : It is a bold move and I doubt our current GM would be able to eat his pride in order to do so, but AlJeff is a nice stretch candidate. If we use stretch provision on him, we only would need to pay his remaining GUARANTEED salary of $13,769,821 to pay over 5 seasons! That would save us 7 million next season and enable us to be semi-serious free agent hunter while still keep Teague!
    Last edited by PetPaima; 03-14-2017 at 09:55 AM.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    I love the stretch Al Jeff concept. That's a move that gets PG's attention.


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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by jrwannabe View Post
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    I'm old school. IMO, only a very players are worth more than 25 million.
    Salary cap has increased 30%. So $32.5 million is literally the new $25 million.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by PetPaima View Post
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    INDIANA PACERS :

    We will enter the free agency at above the salary cap and unable to make any offers as :

    1) We have $57,925,047 of guaranteed contracts for next season. That sum includes PG13, Thad, Monta, AlJeff, Myles and 50,000 bucks for Xmas.
    2) We have $16,572,675 bound in optional contracts of Stuckey, CJ & Lavoy
    3) We have $6,022,065 bound in non-guaranteed contracts of Seraphin, JoeYoung, GRIII and Niang + the non-guaranteed mil of Xmas
    4) We have $18,330,000 bound on cap holds of Teague & Brooks
    5) We have rookie cap holds

    So altogether we will start around 101 mil before starting to ”drop” guys. Cap is likeliest to be about 98 mil.

    Step 1) renounce Brooks – opens up 5,130,000. 2 million under the cap
    Step 2) CJ picks his option, becomes a cap hold. Add 4,125,105. Back over the cap.
    Step 3) Stuckey does not pick his option. Monetarily you stay where you were.

    Step 4) Re-sign Teague & CJ with the Bird Rights. Pay an approximate 30 mil for that duo. End up very close to a luxury tax threshold (but probably below) with the draft pick as the only new asset.

    Alternative step 4) Renounce CJ's rights, do NOT pick Lavoy's option, waive 2 non-guaranteed contracts (Seraphin/JoeYoung). End up roughly 14 mil under the cap. Make a pitch for some 2nd tier free agent (or two). Afterwards sign Teague with Bird rights, end up with something like presented below. Avoid luxury tax too... :

    PG : Teague, Monta
    SG : 1st-round pick, GRIII, Stuckey
    SF : PG13, 2nd-round pick
    PF : Thad, Jerebko, Xmas
    C : Myles, Pachulia, AlJeff


    Alternative step 2, version 2) Like above, but also renounce Teague... Get room for 1 x max. Contract under the salary cap. Swing for the fences for difference-maker and fill the rest with minimum contracts + (no-longer-so-useful) MLE.


    Salary dump candidates : If our FO wants to simultaneously retain Teague AND add even a single top-level player, we need to do some salary dumping. Monta, AlJeff and Stuckey will be hard to move for salary relief (yes, you can always move players but not so easily when you don't want to take any salary back). Thad might be little easier to move, but would also leave a sizable frontcourt hole.

    Worth mentioning : It is a bold move and I doubt our current GM would be able to eat his pride in order to do so, but AlJeff is a nice stretch candidate. If we us stretch provision on him, we only would need to pay his remaining GUARANTEED salary of $13,769,821 to pay over 5 seasons! That would save us 7 million next season and enable us to be semi-serious free agent hunter while still keep Teague!


    Currently though we're already $4.1 mil under the cap. So what does our situation look like if:


    CJ opts out and we don't re-sign him.
    Stuckey opts in but we trade him and our 2017 2nd rounder to Portland for Alan Crabbe and the #22 pick.
    We drop Lavoy, Joe, Brooks, Seraphin.
    We move Al to a team like the Nets or Sixers and take back no salary, while keeping Monta.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Here's a question for you guys. Would you be willing to offer Al Jefferson, Monta Ellis, and our 2018 1st to the Knicks for Carmelo Anthony in the Summer? This would require Larry to talk with him into waiving the no trade clause. But if he were to waive it to come to Indiana and pair up with Paul as a dynamic duo would you do it? Keep in mind he makes $24 mil next season and the season after that. He has an ETO (early termination option) in the Summer of 2019.

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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
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    Here's a question for you guys. Would you be willing to offer Al Jefferson, Monta Ellis, and our 2018 1st to the Knicks for Carmelo Anthony in the Summer? This would require Larry to talk with him into waiving the no trade clause. But if he were to waive it to come to Indiana and pair up with Paul as a dynamic duo would you do it? Keep in mind he makes $24 mil next season and the season after that. He has an ETO (early termination option) in the Summer of 2019.
    He wouldn't waive his NTC to come here, but yes, I would do that deal.

  33. #24
    Member Grimp's Avatar
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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by cdash View Post
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    He wouldn't waive his NTC to come here, but yes, I would do that deal.
    It would take some convincing but if Larry calls him and works some of that magic. Then he chats with Paul, I don't see how he could not at least consider waiving the NTC.

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    Member pogi's Avatar
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    Default Re: Free agency of 2017 - analysis for every team (in six separate posts)

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
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    It would take some convincing but if Larry calls him and works some of that magic. Then he chats with Paul, I don't see how he could not at least consider waiving the NTC.
    Lala would divorce Carmelo if he came here.

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