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Thread: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    The interesting thing is that PG becoming eligible for that massive extention could actually hurt his chances of re-signing with the Pacers.

    Reason being is that if the Pacers decide he isn't worth that much and offer a lesser deal, he may feel disrespected and decide to leave.

    If he isn't eligible, he may still re-sign in Indy because the maximum he can get is an amount the Pacers are willing to pay.

    All comes down to what the Pacers feel he's worth.

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by I Love P View Post
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    Any Pacers fan that wants PG back at $200+ million is not a real fan IMO. That's being a Pacers fan because of PG or more of a PG fan than the franchise alone. Signing him, and that production / lack of effort, would be as devastating to this team's future as the brawl was.

    I want PG to be traded (preferably for a top 3 pick) but if this thing goes to 2018 summer I will be rooting hard for him to walk. I can't imagine what our roster would look like with him on that kinda deal. And he wants to win? We'd live in the lottery our as a 6-8 seed.

    Larry will do what's right....and that's deal Paul. Hence the phone calls last week.
    Thats silly. Just about everything you said outside of wanting to trade him first.

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by pacerDU View Post
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    The interesting thing is that PG becoming eligible for that massive extention could actually hurt his chances of re-signing with the Pacers.

    Reason being is that if the Pacers decide he isn't worth that much and offer a lesser deal, he may feel disrespected and decide to leave.

    If he isn't eligible, he may still re-sign in Indy because the maximum he can get is an amount the Pacers are willing to pay.

    All comes down to what the Pacers feel he's worth.
    I think the supermax only helps the Pacers' chances of retaining PG. They would be stark raving mad to insult him with an offer for anything less than the absolute max.

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by ksuttonjr76 View Post
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    Unrelated, but kinda related question that might deserve its own thread. Does anyone think the DPE is a bad idea? There are really only a handful of players that I would even dare to think they're worth over $200M over five years. Plus, doesn't paying a player that money makes it even harder to build a team around them?
    Yeah I don't see how teams that give max to ok players are going to compete in the future.

    Paying PG 200 mill pretty much guarantees that you can't afford the pieces to compete.
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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by I Love P View Post
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    Any Pacers fan that wants PG back at $200+ million is not a real fan IMO. That's being a Pacers fan because of PG or more of a PG fan than the franchise alone. Signing him, and that production / lack of effort, would be as devastating to this team's future as the brawl was.

    I want PG to be traded (preferably for a top 3 pick) but if this thing goes to 2018 summer I will be rooting hard for him to walk. I can't imagine what our roster would look like with him on that kinda deal. And he wants to win? We'd live in the lottery our as a 6-8 seed.

    Larry will do what's right....and that's deal Paul. Hence the phone calls last week.
    I can see your point of view and I'll admit that I do have a concern with paying any player that kind of guaranteed salary due to the injury risk and risk that he may not play up to it but I still think it's the best thing the Pacers can do. The reality is that under the current cba every superstar player is now going to command that kind of money annually it just may be on a 4 year instead of a 5 year deal. Even if Paul doesn't get the DPE his max with is us still 5/180. Any mature all star is going to require huge dollars so if you don't pay Paul now you're just kicking the can down the road.We can't just keep cycling through rookies and rebuilds until we get lucky enough to land another Paul George then if we get lucky decide if we'll pay player X a 5/250 salary when we finally become relevant in 2025 or get cold feet again and trade him for picks. You're very unlikely to win a championship going forward without players making that kind of money. You can point to teams that were already built under the old cba but imagine what kind of long term salary Golden State is looking at if they keep everyone once they sign them under the new cba. They could have 4 players all making 32-45 mil per year with 3 of them on 5 year deals and one on a 4 year deal. It makes it impossible to keep that core together of course unless they want to pay the most insane LT ever.
    If we trade Paul we're back in rebuild mode around a Turner who IMO will never be a franchise player and we'll be stuck in mediocrity for years. The odds of landing an all star talent from the picks aren't that great and I just don't trust Larry in free agency with cap space.
    Look at what he did with all the cap space he had once he dumped Hibbert and lost West. We ended up spending the money on Stuckey and Ellis on long term deals. I think I'd rather pay Paul 30+ mil per year than have 2 more Montas.
    I just want what I think is best for the Pacers like any real fan would.
    Larry Bird qouted March 25th. 2015:

    Bird: I wanted to keep our group together because in the summer, if David and Roy opt out, we're back to zero, really. We don't have that much, so you leave your options open. If we did make a trade, I didn't want to take on a lot of contracts -- because that's what usually happens. Plus, I liked my guys. They're playing well. If we keep the core together and Paul comes back healthy, we'll be right back to where we were.

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Yeah I don't see how teams that give max to ok players are going to compete in the future.

    Paying PG 200 mill pretty much guarantees that you can't afford the pieces to compete.
    I think Paul George is more than just an O.K. player but the huge 5 year number we're talking about starts at 33 mil next year if he gets the DPE.
    He's already making 20 mil under his second contract from the old cba.
    All star players are now going to cost more. Where do you want to draw the line? You're no longer going get be able to sign an all star player for 20 mil.
    You can possibly get a few fringe all stars for that but you can't build a championship team on fringe all starts and role players.
    Larry Bird qouted March 25th. 2015:

    Bird: I wanted to keep our group together because in the summer, if David and Roy opt out, we're back to zero, really. We don't have that much, so you leave your options open. If we did make a trade, I didn't want to take on a lot of contracts -- because that's what usually happens. Plus, I liked my guys. They're playing well. If we keep the core together and Paul comes back healthy, we'll be right back to where we were.

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by Pace Maker View Post
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    He's been more efficient this year, but PG especially in the first half of the 2015-2016 season and then later on postseason >>> 2016-2017 performance.

    PG has been definitively worse than:

    Kevin Durant
    Kawhi Leonard
    Jimmy Butler
    Giannis A.
    Gordon Hayward
    LBJ of course
    Carmelo Anthony (maybe)

    Basically any and every peer at his position has been better than him this year. This roster is playing below its talent level (seriously 1 game above .500? What a joke) PG is clearly not elevating the team anywhere, he should not even sniff an All-NBA award this season. I'm a big fan I don't say this because I don't like the guy, I say it because he doesn't deserve it.
    I'd argue replacing Paul with any of those guys outside of Lebron and Durant probably makes us worse. I'll get destroyed for not saying Kawhi- so you can possibly add him in there too. The other guys wouldn't make us a better team if they replaced Paul George. Especially not Hayward or Melo.

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by cdash View Post
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    I think the supermax only helps the Pacers' chances of retaining PG. They would be stark raving mad to insult him with an offer for anything less than the absolute max.
    Ummmm... This is Bird whom we're talking about, lol. I could see him trying to convince Paul George to $3M - $7M less per year, so he can keep building the team. I'll leave this to the CBA experts on the forum, but I think the DPE gives them quite a bit of wiggle room while still allowing them to be the team who can offer him the most money.

    Personally, I hope that Bird does. I'm really not a fan of teams giving players the max deal just because they can. It's such a lazy way of negotiating.


    Remember when we could have gotten 1-2 solid players and a possible Top 3 draft pick in the 2017 NBA Draft by trading away Paul George?

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    If PG is going to be worth $200 million, then he's gotta stop with these catastrophic offensive slumps that have happened this time of year for three straight seasons (14, 16, 17).

    Of course, the flip side is that PG is probably worth a billion dollars if Solomon Hill was able to dupe someone into giving him $52 million. Can't wait for the 30 for 30 on last offseason.
    Last edited by Sollozzo; 03-03-2017 at 09:58 AM.

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    All his effort stats are down. FTA, steals, assists, boards, everything. It's not like he's playing poorly. He's just not giving the same level of effort or at least the box isn't showing it.
    This is the like the fourth time I've seen you point out that his stats are down, and not one single time have you posted the actual decreases. Why? Because it's easier to argue that the stats are down and it's bad rather than declining from 23.1 to 22.4 is bad. Provide the context and you'll see how silly this is.
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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Original article forgets Brow, who is also a forward and a definite pick in one of All-NBA teams way ahead of PG this year.

    As I said in separate thread :

    The top 5 forwards in NBA this season have been : Durant, Lebron, Kawhi, Brow & Greek Freak. Except for KD's injury - there would be no discussion about those 5 All-NBA spots.

    The next two (competing for the 6th spot and slipping in if Durant is "DQ'd" are Jimmy Butler & Gordon Hayward.


    PG13 probably leads the NEXT group which also includes Blake, Otto Porter, Harrison Barnes, Millsap, Melo... However, they are all outside looking in and it is not exactly even a close race.

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    This is the like the fourth time I've seen you point out that his stats are down, and not one single time have you posted the actual decreases. Why? Because it's easier to argue that the stats are down and it's bad rather than declining from 23.1 to 22.4 is bad. Provide the context and you'll see how silly this is.
    Do you feel that Paul is having a very good year this season?

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Yes. PG is having pretty much the same year as last year. Stats don't stay flat across the board, that's not how this works. If you thought PG was playing fantastic last year, and you have a problem this year, the problem isn't with PG.
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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by PetPaima View Post
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    Original article forgets Brow, who is also a forward and a definite pick in one of All-NBA teams way ahead of PG this year.

    As I said in separate thread :

    The top 5 forwards in NBA this season have been : Durant, Lebron, Kawhi, Brow & Greek Freak. Except for KD's injury - there would be no discussion about those 5 All-NBA spots.

    The next two (competing for the 6th spot and slipping in if Durant is "DQ'd" are Jimmy Butler & Gordon Hayward.


    PG13 probably leads the NEXT group which also includes Blake, Otto Porter, Harrison Barnes, Millsap, Melo... However, they are all outside looking in and it is not exactly even a close race.
    I disagree, when you look at their complete games Paul should be ahead of both Hayward and Butler. Paul is not on the same tier as Lebron and KD but you are under rating him here.
    Larry Bird qouted March 25th. 2015:

    Bird: I wanted to keep our group together because in the summer, if David and Roy opt out, we're back to zero, really. We don't have that much, so you leave your options open. If we did make a trade, I didn't want to take on a lot of contracts -- because that's what usually happens. Plus, I liked my guys. They're playing well. If we keep the core together and Paul comes back healthy, we'll be right back to where we were.

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    This is the like the fourth time I've seen you point out that his stats are down, and not one single time have you posted the actual decreases. Why? Because it's easier to argue that the stats are down and it's bad rather than declining from 23.1 to 22.4 is bad. Provide the context and you'll see how silly this is.
    He is rebounding 7.0 boards per 40 minutes compared to 8.0 last season. Actually, his rebound-rate is at career-low although not by much.

    More glaringly he is also dishing out an assist less per 40. Percentage-wise it is much larger drop from 4.7 to 3.7.

    And (as all of us has been able to see) he hasn't been at all committed for defensive end... He had league-leading defensive win shares in 2012-13 at 6.3, matched that a year later and had still very good 4.8 defensive win shares last season. This year? A middling 2.0.

    That leads to a fact that after being absolute elite-level talent who regularly produced a team an estimated 10 extra wins a season over "replacement-level mediocrity", he is on pace for less than half of that impact this season.

    Shining counter-argument is basically only FT-percentage - league-leading .920 which is astounding!


    But yes, stats have fallen off a bit and advanced stats show a freefall...

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by PetPaima View Post
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    Original article forgets Brow, who is also a forward and a definite pick in one of All-NBA teams way ahead of PG this year.
    I bet AD is listed as a center on this one.
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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by PetPaima View Post
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    He is rebounding 7.0 boards per 40 minutes compared to 8.0 last season. Actually, his rebound-rate is at career-low although not by much.

    More glaringly he is also dishing out an assist less per 40. Percentage-wise it is much larger drop from 4.7 to 3.7.


    Quote Originally Posted by PetPaima View Post
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    But yes, stats have fallen off a bit and advanced stats show a freefall...
    Free fall? Come on man. One rebound and one less assist over 40mins is a now a "free fall." Tom Petty is somewhere hanging his head.

    EDIT: And don't you mean per-36?
    Last edited by Since86; 03-03-2017 at 11:55 AM.
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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Yes. PG is having pretty much the same year as last year. Stats don't stay flat across the board, that's not how this works. If you thought PG was playing fantastic last year, and you have a problem this year, the problem isn't with PG.
    I'm not disagreeing, I just wanted to make sure.

    I think the issue is that the Pacers were thought to be extremely improved over last year. The supposed 'upgrades" that were added to the roster were supposed to help Paul take his game to a higher level. (the old adage that with more help, he would be able to do more offensively).

    But since the team has been struggling, people look at Paul and think he's not doing enough.

    I think Paul is having a nice year. Similar to last and the one previous. He will never put up big offensive numbers with high efficiency. That's just not who he is. So having that expectation set a lot of individuals up for a let down

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/1...e-warriors-nba

    Zach Lowe commented on some of our frustrations with PG in his 10 Things column today:

    7. Paul George, cavalier

    It's a fascinating debate raging across the league right now: How good, really, is Paul George? Before his ghastly leg injury, George was a consensus top-10 or top-12 player. Now, he probably won't qualify for one of six All-NBA forward spots. Toss in all the brilliant guards and unicorn bigs, and where exactly does George rank in the NBA's star hierarchy? Was he really worth all the trade deadline agita?

    He hasn't played with the same fire this season. Only 13 percent of his shots have come at the rim, the lowest mark of his career. His free throws are down, and he's taking more long 2s than ever. He has ceded some of the creative burden to Jeff Teague, and there are nights when he just looks a little off.

    There is even some evidence that his vaunted defense has slipped. His adjusted plus-minus numbers are mediocre, and opposing players are shooting above their averages when George is nearby, per NBA.com.

    He has developed a maddening habit of drifting too far from dangerous shooters when he doesn't need to, leaving them open even on the strong side -- one short pass away:


    It's almost as if George assumes he can make up all that distance if he revs into into gear. He can't. He has been too cavalier this season.

    But then you remember what he has done in the postseason hothouse. He drilled high degree of difficulty shots on the biggest stage, in the biggest moments. When he gets angry, George transforms into a lockdown defender -- a long, multi-positional weapon, always on his toes, bouncing in sync with his mark as if he's looking into a mirror. He almost single-handedly eliminated a massively superior Toronto team in the first round last season.

    When it matters, I'm still riding with Paul George.

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by Pacerized View Post
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    I disagree, when you look at their complete games Paul should be ahead of both Hayward and Butler. Paul is not on the same tier as Lebron and KD but you are under rating him here.
    In these kind of arguments I rather look at Advanced Stats over an opinion.

    Let's take a look on top forwards at various advanced stats-categories :

    ESPN Hollinger Stats / Estimated Wins Added : (EWA, overall position in table). This is a total number so the games missed on injuries are already accounted for as a minus-factor

    Durant : 16.9, 3rd
    Brow : 16.6, 4th
    Lebron : 16.4, 5th
    Greek Freak : 16.3, 6th
    Kawhi : 15.8, 8th
    --------------------------
    Butler : 14.6, 11th
    Hayward : 11.7, 16th
    --------------------------
    Melo : 8.7, 33rd
    Blake : 8.2, T-35th (with Myles)
    Wiggins & Love : 7.7, T-38th
    Harrison Barnes : 7.4, T-41st
    PG : 7.1, 45th
    Otto : 7.0, T-46th
    Millsap : 6.5, 51st


    Win shares / 48 by basketball-reference.com. It is adjusted for 48 minutes so pure performance with games missed "forgiven" :

    Durant : .277, 1st (from qualified players, the 6 ahead of him have played 30 total minutes or less for season)
    Kawhi : .272, 2nd
    Butler : .228, 7th
    Lebron : .220, 9th
    Hayward : .218, 10th
    Greek Freak : .208, 14th
    Brow : .191, 24th
    -----------------------------
    Otto : .183, 29th
    Love : .182, 30th
    Blake : .176, 34th
    ------------------------
    Millsap : .132, around 70th spot (depending whom you qualify)
    ------------------------
    Melo : .104, around 120th spot
    ------------------------
    PG & Wiggins << .100, not in top 150 amongst NBA players!


    These were random selections amongst many available advanced stats - I could list more and the trend remains the same. PG13 is not playing anywhere close to All-NBA level this season and only his name recognition will keep him anywhere around the conversation.
    Last edited by PetPaima; 03-03-2017 at 12:09 PM.

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Free fall? Come on man. One rebound and one less assist over 40mins is a now a "free fall." Tom Petty is somewhere hanging his head.

    EDIT: And don't you mean per-36?
    No, ESPN advanced stats list per-40 mins for some reason...

    And I said that his ADVANCED STATS are in freefall... Not the traditional stats. I stated that he is having somewhat a down-year in rebounding (career-worst) and assists, but the serious damage is mainly in defensive advanced stats. He used to be worth of 6+ extra wins over that "replacement-level player" in defensive end alone. This season - just 2. That is a freefall...

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    And to add - I am also ready to ride Playoff-Paul any-a-day over all but the VERY GREATEST of NBA. However, All-NBA teams are not based on "how good you can be when you are motivated", but "how good have you been over this specific 82-game regular season". ...and PG has not been all that good this season.

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by PetPaima View Post
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    No, ESPN advanced stats list per-40 mins for some reason...

    And I said that his ADVANCED STATS are in freefall... Not the traditional stats.
    Which is why I quoted two out of the three advanced stats you cited. Going down one rebound over 40mins and one assist over 40 mins isn't anywhere near a "free fall." That is an outrageous standard to think that stats should stay within a little box like that or it shows a "free fall." It's completely hyperbole.
    Last edited by Since86; 03-03-2017 at 12:16 PM.
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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Which is why I quoted two out of the three advanced stats you cited. Going down one rebound over 40mins and one assist over 40 mins isn't anywhere near a "free fall." That is an outrageous standard to think that stats should stay within a little box like that or it shows a "free fall." It complete hyperbole.
    I didn't consider those as "advanced stats" They are traditional stats for me.

    Advanced stats are VORP, Win Shares (offensive/defensive), PER and so on...


    Could have stated it more clearly - I admit.

    But in my sentence "But yes, stats have fallen off a bit and advanced stats show a freefall." a bit-part referred to rebounds&assists per 40 while freefall referred to win shares etc.

    I definitely agree that one less rebound and one less assist per 40 minutes is only a small (if still meaningful) regression.
    Last edited by PetPaima; 03-03-2017 at 12:21 PM.

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    Default Re: [Yahoo] Kevin Durant's injury could have a $212 million ramification for Paul George and the Pacers

    Quote Originally Posted by PetPaima View Post
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    I didn't consider those as "advanced stats" They are traditional stats for me.

    Advanced stats are VORP, Win Shares (offensive/defensive), PER and so on...


    Could have stated it more clearly - I admit.
    I love statistics, but win shares and VORP are all crap IMHO. There's no real way to single out a player's contributions like that. Defensive win shares hinge around a player's Defrtg. A player's Defrtg hinges around the other 4 guys he's playing along side. Kawhi Leonard's DWS is down 2.2 this season, not because he's gotten worse individually but because the Spurs have gotten worse as a team. At the beginning of the year people were looking at Kawhi's Defrtg and DWS and wondering what was going on with him and then they noticed how teams were playing 4-on-4 creating "Kawhi Island."
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right. ― Ricky Gervais.

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