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INDIANAPOLIS — There’s no better example of someone failing to temper their expectations of a team than what I’ve experienced this year. Or, to throw into the same basket, the uproarious optimists of the 2016-17 Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls.
Just take a peek at where I projected the Pacers here, and how many wins I believed they would get. Yeah, it hasn’t worked out.
Both teams made free agency splashes starting in June 2016. Both, to some degree, have witnessed these splashes backfire.
One of these teams remains in a somewhat good state for the future. It turns out, however, the other one ultimately jumped into a boiling pit of lava with their summer acquisitions.
All Indiana did, at the level of importance, was trade George Hill for a younger (and worse defending) point guard, along with not re-signing their defensive anchor in Ian Mahinmi.
Chicago, on the other hand, signed an all-around liability in Rajon Rondo for $14 million and a 34-year-old Dwyane Wade to a two-year, $47 million deal.
I’ll let you decide which one is which.
Their offseasons weren’t fabulous, although most of the Pacers’ fan base believed signing Al Jefferson was going to matter a lot in this generation. The similarities between these two teams doesn’t end at the acquisitions, though.
Both have coaching issues.
Nate McMillan was never the right guy for the job in Indiana — while he’s not detrimental to the team like Byron Scott was for the Lakers — but it was likely team president Larry Bird’s way of getting a former player into the organization’s coaching seat.
Frank Vogel was never his guy, even though he respected him. Bird is as throwback as team presidents come, and he saw a real value in having a former NBA talent at the helm.
In Chicago, Fred Hoiberg doesn’t appear to have much time left, despite the front office shying away from the reports.
They also both occupy superstars who, for the most part, haven’t been enjoying the current state of their teams. It’s a bit surprising that as candid as Jimmy Butler usually is during interviews, he hasn’t publicly discussed his lack of offensive help lately and the inconsistency around Chicago.
Before the Pacers’ recent three-game winning streak, Paul George told me, “Maybe I’m just living in the past, of how good we used to be.”
George and Butler’s frustrations have to grow with every losing skid, and it puts insurmountable pressure on the Pacers, in particular, who could lose George in 2018 free agency.
Beyond the storylines and media frenzy, there are the visible struggles with how both Indiana and Chicago have played for the first 30-plus games of the season.
The Pacers and Bulls find themselves in the bottom-half of offensive rating this season, with Indiana scoring 103.9 points per 100 possessions and Chicago slightly higher at 104.1. In the fourth quarter, those numbers are much worse. In fact, it’s the worst quarter for both teams in offensive execution:
At the root of Indiana’s struggles, they have the largest discrepancy between third and fourth quarter scoring production in the league. Dropping over 11 full points per 100 possessions from the third to fourth, McMillan’s Pacers are only better than only the Orlando Magic, Bulls, and Philadelphia 76ers in the final 12 minutes — that doesn’t account for any “garbage time” Indiana may play through.
However, it’s not like they are world-beaters when the game is on the line, either. During “clutch time” opportunities — which is defined as having five minutes or fewer remaining, and the score within five points — the Pacers are still a bottom-tier unit.
Their net rating in such moments is still -7.7, ranking 22nd in the league. Of the eight teams ranked below them, only one is above .500 for the season and a definite favorite to make the playoffs. That’s the Milwaukee Bucks. So, for the most part, Indiana isn’t in good company when it comes to performing well down the stretch.
Luckily for the Pacers, though, they ran into four suboptimal teams after their four-game losing stretch, which had George and company feeling depressed and grumpy. They were able to drive past the Bulls, Magic, Pistons, and Nets (a combined 58-86 record) in their last four games, by an average margin of 10 points.
In those four wins, Indiana showed signs of life in the fourth quarter. They’ve scored 119.9 points per 100 possessions in the 48-minute sample size, which is behind only Toronto, Atlanta, Charlotte, Milwaukee, San Antonio, and Boston over the last four games for all teams.
The weakness of opponents may have a lot to do with that, but the Pistons went into their meeting with Indiana as the best fourth-quarter defending team in the league — and they still are, based on points allowed per 100 possessions.
Probably the biggest reason why McMillan hasn’t been able to get any excellent fourth quarter production from his guys (since October) is personnel. Monta Ellis started the first 28 games of the season and had a much larger role at the beginning of the year.
This isn’t 2010 Monta Ellis, however, and it’s clear that he needed to be relegated to a bench role. Since returning from injury, he has played only 17.6 minutes per game — much lower than his season average of nearly 30. Those days are likely gone, as he’s a 31-year-old guard who is no longer adroit enough defensively to help in larger doses.
Just watching the Pacers since Glenn Robinson III was inserted into the starting lineup (replacing Ellis), you’re able to see a monumental difference in how effective they can be. The numbers bear it out, too:
With the 200-minute threshold, it obviously knocks out devastating lineups with smaller dosages, such as the Warriors’ megadeath lineup, and both of Toronto’s two haymakers with their starters plus Patrick Patterson, and Lowry plus the bench unit.
What’s miraculous about this is that Indiana is still just 5-6 since Robinson III moved into the starting spot, which is odd considering the other seven lineups featured.
None of those teams have hit a 5-6 stretch this season when their guys are healthy, and they likely won’t. It points towards the Pacers’ bench and subsidiary lineups being a complete disaster, which has often been the case.
In the win over Detroit, they were somehow able to withstand a full nine minutes from Ellis in the fourth quarter. He was playing starters minutes when it mattered, and it still led to Indiana wiping the Pistons off the floor in the fourth quarter, with a +45.5 Net Rating in those nine minutes.
Robinson sat on the bench for all but two minutes of the fourth.
Which leads us to believe one thing: The Pacers are just flat-out weird right now.
Most of it can be attributed to Paul George taking on a larger offensive responsibility since he publicly expressed his willingness to do so.
“It’s always going to be ‘do more’ for me,” George said last week. “That goes along with having fun. When I’m having fun, I try to do whatever I can on the court to make a play. I (couldn’t) care less about being tired. Don’t care about being fatigued. When I’m having fun, it’s when I’m locked in.”
The fun seems to have come for George, as his usage rating in the last three games is up to 30.1 percent — eight percentage points higher than the next starter (Teague). That’s right where it should be, and higher than his 27.6 percent from October to Christmas. It may not seem like a huge jump, but those extra possessions begin to add up.
This sport, especially today, is predicated on ball movement, making proper reads, and also making sure the role players are involved offensively. But, we sometimes fall into this trap of believing everything always has to be complex. Believing there has to be at least 10 passes on every possession, including late in the game.
That’s not the case, as there is something to be said about the value of having a superstar that’s confident enough in his own offense. With a chance to seal the game in Detroit, Teague recognized a mismatch George had near the right block. Stan Van Gundy called for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to defend Teague, which meant 6’3″ Reggie Jackson had nowhere else to go, except for picking up 6’9″ Paul George.
Up 10, Teague burned some clock, and then dumped the ball down to George. From there, it’s George’s “triple threat” position that has to keep Jackson guessing. He had a baseline drive or a clear jumpshot that couldn’t be affected. He chose the jumper:
This is an underrated read by George, considering he knows Andre Drummond is the most athletic center in the league today. All Drummond would have to do is rotate over to challenge George at the rim, while Tobias Harris has Myles Turner sealed off. As much as mid-range shots are crucified today, there are certain moments where it’s the right choice. The threat has to remain there, for the sake of predictability not becoming too high.
Even when George isn’t the one taking the shot, his patience and carving of the defense have been wildly impressive lately. Such can be seen here, with him taking Pistons’ big Jon Leuer off the dribble, and forcing defensive help to free his second banana, Turner:
This play was right at the start of that lovely “clutch time.” After a Thaddeus Young baseline drive that looks somewhat like a “hammer” set (minus the screener for Ellis, which should’ve been George), the Pacers’ offense resets. George is in no hurry but knows he has 10 seconds on the shot clock.
He gains momentum on Leuer and gets around him with ease. If Drummond doesn’t rotate to him, it’ll be an open layup. George reads that perfectly and finds Turner in mid-air for a drop-off pass. It results in two free throws and superb offense.
Something else in Indiana has been confusing. And that’s what exactly Monta Ellis provides. Or, more importantly, when to even use him.
Before the season, one of the main criticisms of having Teague, Ellis, and George in the same starting lineup was that it creates three players that truly need the ball in their hands to find success. Teague isn’t the best off-ball option, Ellis isn’t a crisp enough shooter to play off-ball, and there’s no way you need George — the franchise star — standing flat-footed on the wing during many possessions.
Again, the numbers have shown this to be true:
Literally, the only difference between these two lineups is Paul George. This sort of goes hand-in-hand with the same dilemma San Antonio faces.
Without Kawhi Leonard on the court, they surprisingly do very well. But, the net ratings aren’t indictments on Leonard or George. Instead, in this case with Indiana, it’s showing that basketball (usually) can’t work properly when Teague, Ellis, and George are all on the floor at the same time.
101 minutes isn’t an incredibly large sample size, but the Teague-Ellis-Robinson III-Young-Turner lineup is scoring at a league-leading rate when in the game, and defending better than when George is out there.
It’s a testament to how sound Robinson’s defensive fundamentals are in just his third.
Even when it’s just Ellis as the primary ball-handler (with Teague and George sitting), the Pacers find quality looks when they aren’t stagnant:
They run a nifty set here, with Aaron Brooks screening for C.J. Miles to cut across the lane in “flex” motion. However, Miles stops short and catches Marcus Morris off guard when he loops back around for a second Brooks screen.
It’s enough to delay Morris’s close-out, and Miles gets a pretty clean look from one of his best spots. It doesn’t fall, but this is good offense to get your best shooter some looks without George or Teague in the game. Also, it leads to a Kevin Seraphin tip-in.
Plus, there are these weird instances where it does work when the Ellis-Teague-George trio is playing together. Mostly because teams are scared to death about stepping away from George on the wing since he’s a 39.2 percent three-point shooter this year:
When Ellis is patient like this and not looking for one of his pull-up mid-rangers, things work well. He does a great job above, in making Drummond and Caldwell-Pope work tirelessly on defense.
Forcing a switch, then re-setting the ball. Waiting for Detroit to switch back to normal (with Pope on him), and then attacking Drummond in the middle.
Ellis is also shooting 70.2 percent from within 0-3 feet, which is the most efficient he’s been from there since 2010-11 in Golden State.
The Pacers have gone through a difficult change this year, with only 59 percent of roster continuity, according to Basketball-Reference. That’s one of the 10 lowest amounts out all 30 teams this year, and it’s perhaps the toughest task for a coach to encounter. Ingraining new schemes, philosophies, playing styles, and just the culture, into new players. All within a few months, with games happening every other day.
“It takes time for guys to get comfortable with each other and for you get comfortable with a rotation and for you learn each other tendencies,” McMillan said. “You build trust with what you want to do out there. What we’re focusing on right now is paying attention to details. We’re starting to play the basketball we envisioned this summer.”
They’re finally back over .500, and you can rule nothing out from 3-10 in this Eastern Conference. With their next five opponents having a combined 72-110 record (.396), this is the perfect time to hit a stride. It may be what McMillan needs to justify his coaching position.
INDIANAPOLIS — There’s no better example of someone failing to temper their expectations of a team than what I’ve experienced this year. Or, to throw into the same basket, the uproarious optimists of the 2016-17 Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls.
Just take a peek at where I projected the Pacers here, and how many wins I believed they would get. Yeah, it hasn’t worked out.
Both teams made free agency splashes starting in June 2016. Both, to some degree, have witnessed these splashes backfire.
One of these teams remains in a somewhat good state for the future. It turns out, however, the other one ultimately jumped into a boiling pit of lava with their summer acquisitions.
All Indiana did, at the level of importance, was trade George Hill for a younger (and worse defending) point guard, along with not re-signing their defensive anchor in Ian Mahinmi.
Chicago, on the other hand, signed an all-around liability in Rajon Rondo for $14 million and a 34-year-old Dwyane Wade to a two-year, $47 million deal.
I’ll let you decide which one is which.
Their offseasons weren’t fabulous, although most of the Pacers’ fan base believed signing Al Jefferson was going to matter a lot in this generation. The similarities between these two teams doesn’t end at the acquisitions, though.
Both have coaching issues.
Nate McMillan was never the right guy for the job in Indiana — while he’s not detrimental to the team like Byron Scott was for the Lakers — but it was likely team president Larry Bird’s way of getting a former player into the organization’s coaching seat.
Frank Vogel was never his guy, even though he respected him. Bird is as throwback as team presidents come, and he saw a real value in having a former NBA talent at the helm.
In Chicago, Fred Hoiberg doesn’t appear to have much time left, despite the front office shying away from the reports.
They also both occupy superstars who, for the most part, haven’t been enjoying the current state of their teams. It’s a bit surprising that as candid as Jimmy Butler usually is during interviews, he hasn’t publicly discussed his lack of offensive help lately and the inconsistency around Chicago.
Before the Pacers’ recent three-game winning streak, Paul George told me, “Maybe I’m just living in the past, of how good we used to be.”
George and Butler’s frustrations have to grow with every losing skid, and it puts insurmountable pressure on the Pacers, in particular, who could lose George in 2018 free agency.
Beyond the storylines and media frenzy, there are the visible struggles with how both Indiana and Chicago have played for the first 30-plus games of the season.
The Pacers and Bulls find themselves in the bottom-half of offensive rating this season, with Indiana scoring 103.9 points per 100 possessions and Chicago slightly higher at 104.1. In the fourth quarter, those numbers are much worse. In fact, it’s the worst quarter for both teams in offensive execution:
At the root of Indiana’s struggles, they have the largest discrepancy between third and fourth quarter scoring production in the league. Dropping over 11 full points per 100 possessions from the third to fourth, McMillan’s Pacers are only better than only the Orlando Magic, Bulls, and Philadelphia 76ers in the final 12 minutes — that doesn’t account for any “garbage time” Indiana may play through.
However, it’s not like they are world-beaters when the game is on the line, either. During “clutch time” opportunities — which is defined as having five minutes or fewer remaining, and the score within five points — the Pacers are still a bottom-tier unit.
Their net rating in such moments is still -7.7, ranking 22nd in the league. Of the eight teams ranked below them, only one is above .500 for the season and a definite favorite to make the playoffs. That’s the Milwaukee Bucks. So, for the most part, Indiana isn’t in good company when it comes to performing well down the stretch.
Luckily for the Pacers, though, they ran into four suboptimal teams after their four-game losing stretch, which had George and company feeling depressed and grumpy. They were able to drive past the Bulls, Magic, Pistons, and Nets (a combined 58-86 record) in their last four games, by an average margin of 10 points.
In those four wins, Indiana showed signs of life in the fourth quarter. They’ve scored 119.9 points per 100 possessions in the 48-minute sample size, which is behind only Toronto, Atlanta, Charlotte, Milwaukee, San Antonio, and Boston over the last four games for all teams.
The weakness of opponents may have a lot to do with that, but the Pistons went into their meeting with Indiana as the best fourth-quarter defending team in the league — and they still are, based on points allowed per 100 possessions.
Probably the biggest reason why McMillan hasn’t been able to get any excellent fourth quarter production from his guys (since October) is personnel. Monta Ellis started the first 28 games of the season and had a much larger role at the beginning of the year.
This isn’t 2010 Monta Ellis, however, and it’s clear that he needed to be relegated to a bench role. Since returning from injury, he has played only 17.6 minutes per game — much lower than his season average of nearly 30. Those days are likely gone, as he’s a 31-year-old guard who is no longer adroit enough defensively to help in larger doses.
Just watching the Pacers since Glenn Robinson III was inserted into the starting lineup (replacing Ellis), you’re able to see a monumental difference in how effective they can be. The numbers bear it out, too:
With the 200-minute threshold, it obviously knocks out devastating lineups with smaller dosages, such as the Warriors’ megadeath lineup, and both of Toronto’s two haymakers with their starters plus Patrick Patterson, and Lowry plus the bench unit.
What’s miraculous about this is that Indiana is still just 5-6 since Robinson III moved into the starting spot, which is odd considering the other seven lineups featured.
None of those teams have hit a 5-6 stretch this season when their guys are healthy, and they likely won’t. It points towards the Pacers’ bench and subsidiary lineups being a complete disaster, which has often been the case.
In the win over Detroit, they were somehow able to withstand a full nine minutes from Ellis in the fourth quarter. He was playing starters minutes when it mattered, and it still led to Indiana wiping the Pistons off the floor in the fourth quarter, with a +45.5 Net Rating in those nine minutes.
Robinson sat on the bench for all but two minutes of the fourth.
Which leads us to believe one thing: The Pacers are just flat-out weird right now.
Most of it can be attributed to Paul George taking on a larger offensive responsibility since he publicly expressed his willingness to do so.
“It’s always going to be ‘do more’ for me,” George said last week. “That goes along with having fun. When I’m having fun, I try to do whatever I can on the court to make a play. I (couldn’t) care less about being tired. Don’t care about being fatigued. When I’m having fun, it’s when I’m locked in.”
The fun seems to have come for George, as his usage rating in the last three games is up to 30.1 percent — eight percentage points higher than the next starter (Teague). That’s right where it should be, and higher than his 27.6 percent from October to Christmas. It may not seem like a huge jump, but those extra possessions begin to add up.
This sport, especially today, is predicated on ball movement, making proper reads, and also making sure the role players are involved offensively. But, we sometimes fall into this trap of believing everything always has to be complex. Believing there has to be at least 10 passes on every possession, including late in the game.
That’s not the case, as there is something to be said about the value of having a superstar that’s confident enough in his own offense. With a chance to seal the game in Detroit, Teague recognized a mismatch George had near the right block. Stan Van Gundy called for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to defend Teague, which meant 6’3″ Reggie Jackson had nowhere else to go, except for picking up 6’9″ Paul George.
Up 10, Teague burned some clock, and then dumped the ball down to George. From there, it’s George’s “triple threat” position that has to keep Jackson guessing. He had a baseline drive or a clear jumpshot that couldn’t be affected. He chose the jumper:
This is an underrated read by George, considering he knows Andre Drummond is the most athletic center in the league today. All Drummond would have to do is rotate over to challenge George at the rim, while Tobias Harris has Myles Turner sealed off. As much as mid-range shots are crucified today, there are certain moments where it’s the right choice. The threat has to remain there, for the sake of predictability not becoming too high.
Even when George isn’t the one taking the shot, his patience and carving of the defense have been wildly impressive lately. Such can be seen here, with him taking Pistons’ big Jon Leuer off the dribble, and forcing defensive help to free his second banana, Turner:
This play was right at the start of that lovely “clutch time.” After a Thaddeus Young baseline drive that looks somewhat like a “hammer” set (minus the screener for Ellis, which should’ve been George), the Pacers’ offense resets. George is in no hurry but knows he has 10 seconds on the shot clock.
He gains momentum on Leuer and gets around him with ease. If Drummond doesn’t rotate to him, it’ll be an open layup. George reads that perfectly and finds Turner in mid-air for a drop-off pass. It results in two free throws and superb offense.
Something else in Indiana has been confusing. And that’s what exactly Monta Ellis provides. Or, more importantly, when to even use him.
Before the season, one of the main criticisms of having Teague, Ellis, and George in the same starting lineup was that it creates three players that truly need the ball in their hands to find success. Teague isn’t the best off-ball option, Ellis isn’t a crisp enough shooter to play off-ball, and there’s no way you need George — the franchise star — standing flat-footed on the wing during many possessions.
Again, the numbers have shown this to be true:
Literally, the only difference between these two lineups is Paul George. This sort of goes hand-in-hand with the same dilemma San Antonio faces.
Without Kawhi Leonard on the court, they surprisingly do very well. But, the net ratings aren’t indictments on Leonard or George. Instead, in this case with Indiana, it’s showing that basketball (usually) can’t work properly when Teague, Ellis, and George are all on the floor at the same time.
101 minutes isn’t an incredibly large sample size, but the Teague-Ellis-Robinson III-Young-Turner lineup is scoring at a league-leading rate when in the game, and defending better than when George is out there.
It’s a testament to how sound Robinson’s defensive fundamentals are in just his third.
Even when it’s just Ellis as the primary ball-handler (with Teague and George sitting), the Pacers find quality looks when they aren’t stagnant:
They run a nifty set here, with Aaron Brooks screening for C.J. Miles to cut across the lane in “flex” motion. However, Miles stops short and catches Marcus Morris off guard when he loops back around for a second Brooks screen.
It’s enough to delay Morris’s close-out, and Miles gets a pretty clean look from one of his best spots. It doesn’t fall, but this is good offense to get your best shooter some looks without George or Teague in the game. Also, it leads to a Kevin Seraphin tip-in.
Plus, there are these weird instances where it does work when the Ellis-Teague-George trio is playing together. Mostly because teams are scared to death about stepping away from George on the wing since he’s a 39.2 percent three-point shooter this year:
When Ellis is patient like this and not looking for one of his pull-up mid-rangers, things work well. He does a great job above, in making Drummond and Caldwell-Pope work tirelessly on defense.
Forcing a switch, then re-setting the ball. Waiting for Detroit to switch back to normal (with Pope on him), and then attacking Drummond in the middle.
Ellis is also shooting 70.2 percent from within 0-3 feet, which is the most efficient he’s been from there since 2010-11 in Golden State.
The Pacers have gone through a difficult change this year, with only 59 percent of roster continuity, according to Basketball-Reference. That’s one of the 10 lowest amounts out all 30 teams this year, and it’s perhaps the toughest task for a coach to encounter. Ingraining new schemes, philosophies, playing styles, and just the culture, into new players. All within a few months, with games happening every other day.
“It takes time for guys to get comfortable with each other and for you get comfortable with a rotation and for you learn each other tendencies,” McMillan said. “You build trust with what you want to do out there. What we’re focusing on right now is paying attention to details. We’re starting to play the basketball we envisioned this summer.”
They’re finally back over .500, and you can rule nothing out from 3-10 in this Eastern Conference. With their next five opponents having a combined 72-110 record (.396), this is the perfect time to hit a stride. It may be what McMillan needs to justify his coaching position.
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