With a significant fraction of the season in the books, time to see how this season stacks up vs last season. This is a mostly statistics-based analysis.
Let's start with some basics.
The Pacers are currently on pace to win 39 games (last year 45). Given the higher expectations this year, the season has been disappointing so far.
ORTG: 104.1 (21st) Last year: 104.6 (25th)
DRTG: 107.8 (17th) Last year: 102.9 (3rd)
Pace: 98.2 (9th) Last year: 96.6 (11th)
The Pacers are playing somewhat faster, which was one of Larry's goals. However, the hoped for boost on offense has simply not materialized. We are actually scoring less points per possession that last year's scoring challenged team. And the defense has simply cratered. Defense (or the lack of it) is why the Pacers' margin of victory has gone from a mediocre +1.7 (11th) to a horrific -3.7 (25th). In other words, we're probably worse than our record suggests, and our record isn't pretty to start with.
Breaking down the offense using 4 factors:
eFG%: 0.498 vs Last year 0.497
TOV%: 13.4 vs Last year 13.5
ORB%: 20.4 vs Last year 23.4
FT/FGA: 0.197 vs Last year 0.205
The number that jumps out here is how bad the Pacers are at offensive rebounding - and last season's team wasn't particularly good either. We're shooting about the same as last year, turning it over the same as last year, and getting slightly fewer free throws than last year.
Interestingly, the Pacers are also shooting the 3 less than last year, which is not what you'd expect from a fast pace team. The Pacers are slightly less accurate from 3 (34.6%) than last year (35.1%).
On the plus side, we are getting more possessions (possibly due to increased steals) and assisting at a much higher rate. No one will mistake these Pacers for offensive juggernauts though.
Breaking down the defense using 4 factors:
Opp eFG%: 0.509 vs Last year 0.489
Opp TOV%: 14.3 vs Last year 14.3
DRB%: 73.2 vs Last year 76.0
Opp FT/FGA: 0.211 vs Last year 0.205
A theme is emerging. The Pacers can't rebound to save their lives. The DRB% is dead last in the league. Playing small takes its toll.
The Pacers are still one of the stingiest teams at defending the 3 (Opp 3P% 33%) but we are giving up 2P shots at a whopping 51.4% (27th). Curiously, our block shot rate is up (5.8/g vs 4.8/g), but I guess that proves there's more to rim protection than just blocking shots.
About the only thing the Pacers do well on defense is forcing turnovers and getting steals. But both of those were also true last year.
Lineups:
The main starting lineup (Turner-Young-PG-Ellis-Teague) has played the most minutes by far, but it hasn't been good. It's a net -4.1/100 possession. To be frank, it's not really working, for a lot of reasons which have been discussed to death.
The second most used lineup is the PG injury lineup (with GR3 replacing PG) and surprisingly it is a +16.7 with a fairly decent amount of minutes. That's... very good actually. And it wasn't just beating up on weak teams either, since that stretch included quality wins vs OKC and LAC. It's patently ridiculous to claim that GR3 is somehow better than PG, but it's clear that the chemistry with that lineup works better than with the regular starters.
The other frequently used lineups all suffer from low minute totals (small sample size), but I'll just point out in passing some of the best performing ones:
Jefferson-Allen-GR3-Stuckey-Brooks +31.0
Turner-Young-PG-Miles-Teague +33.9
Turner-PG-Miles-Ellis-Teague +42.4
Might not be a bad idea for Nate to tinker with the lineups some more.
Individual Performers:
Individual player ratings is still one of the more controversial topics in stats, so I'll just throw out a bunch of them and let people make up their own minds.
Counting stats
PG 20.4 ppg 7.1 rpg 3.6 apg
Teague 15.1 ppg 3.8 rpg 6.6 apg
Turner 14.4 ppg 7.4 rpg 2.2 bpg 52.7% fg%
Miles 12.7 ppg 47% 3p%
Young 11.8 ppg 53.2% fg%
PER
Miles 20.6
Turner 20.0
PG 19.1
Teague 18.8
Seraphin 17.5
WS/48
Miles .182
Turner .152
Teague .113
PG .104
Young .091
RPM
Turner 1.73
Miles 1.68
Teague 1.35
PG 1.23
Young 0.66
Seems like the same names keep popping up. Maybe this is less controversial than I thought.
End notes:
Last season's Pacers were criticized for losing a lot of close games. But the flip side is that they were rarely ever blown out. They lost all of 5 games last season where the losing margin is 15 or greater. This season? There are already 7, and we are only a quarter of the season in.
Closing thoughts:
It hasn't been pretty. Injuries have played a part, especially CJ(!) missing time. And ok, PG too. Not sure that we can address the problem of the boards. We lost a lot of beef from from last year (Mahinmi, J. Hill, Lavoy's role reduced). Playing Seraphin would help. Al Jeff should as well, but it seems that he is still playing his way into shape. Turner tries (rebound numbers are up) but alas that's just not his forte.
But mostly this feels like a team still struggling with its identity. We're playing a smallball style that is ineffective offensively and has massive holes defensively. Something's got to give.
Let's start with some basics.
The Pacers are currently on pace to win 39 games (last year 45). Given the higher expectations this year, the season has been disappointing so far.
ORTG: 104.1 (21st) Last year: 104.6 (25th)
DRTG: 107.8 (17th) Last year: 102.9 (3rd)
Pace: 98.2 (9th) Last year: 96.6 (11th)
The Pacers are playing somewhat faster, which was one of Larry's goals. However, the hoped for boost on offense has simply not materialized. We are actually scoring less points per possession that last year's scoring challenged team. And the defense has simply cratered. Defense (or the lack of it) is why the Pacers' margin of victory has gone from a mediocre +1.7 (11th) to a horrific -3.7 (25th). In other words, we're probably worse than our record suggests, and our record isn't pretty to start with.
Breaking down the offense using 4 factors:
eFG%: 0.498 vs Last year 0.497
TOV%: 13.4 vs Last year 13.5
ORB%: 20.4 vs Last year 23.4
FT/FGA: 0.197 vs Last year 0.205
The number that jumps out here is how bad the Pacers are at offensive rebounding - and last season's team wasn't particularly good either. We're shooting about the same as last year, turning it over the same as last year, and getting slightly fewer free throws than last year.
Interestingly, the Pacers are also shooting the 3 less than last year, which is not what you'd expect from a fast pace team. The Pacers are slightly less accurate from 3 (34.6%) than last year (35.1%).
On the plus side, we are getting more possessions (possibly due to increased steals) and assisting at a much higher rate. No one will mistake these Pacers for offensive juggernauts though.
Breaking down the defense using 4 factors:
Opp eFG%: 0.509 vs Last year 0.489
Opp TOV%: 14.3 vs Last year 14.3
DRB%: 73.2 vs Last year 76.0
Opp FT/FGA: 0.211 vs Last year 0.205
A theme is emerging. The Pacers can't rebound to save their lives. The DRB% is dead last in the league. Playing small takes its toll.
The Pacers are still one of the stingiest teams at defending the 3 (Opp 3P% 33%) but we are giving up 2P shots at a whopping 51.4% (27th). Curiously, our block shot rate is up (5.8/g vs 4.8/g), but I guess that proves there's more to rim protection than just blocking shots.
About the only thing the Pacers do well on defense is forcing turnovers and getting steals. But both of those were also true last year.
Lineups:
The main starting lineup (Turner-Young-PG-Ellis-Teague) has played the most minutes by far, but it hasn't been good. It's a net -4.1/100 possession. To be frank, it's not really working, for a lot of reasons which have been discussed to death.
The second most used lineup is the PG injury lineup (with GR3 replacing PG) and surprisingly it is a +16.7 with a fairly decent amount of minutes. That's... very good actually. And it wasn't just beating up on weak teams either, since that stretch included quality wins vs OKC and LAC. It's patently ridiculous to claim that GR3 is somehow better than PG, but it's clear that the chemistry with that lineup works better than with the regular starters.
The other frequently used lineups all suffer from low minute totals (small sample size), but I'll just point out in passing some of the best performing ones:
Jefferson-Allen-GR3-Stuckey-Brooks +31.0
Turner-Young-PG-Miles-Teague +33.9
Turner-PG-Miles-Ellis-Teague +42.4
Might not be a bad idea for Nate to tinker with the lineups some more.
Individual Performers:
Individual player ratings is still one of the more controversial topics in stats, so I'll just throw out a bunch of them and let people make up their own minds.
Counting stats
PG 20.4 ppg 7.1 rpg 3.6 apg
Teague 15.1 ppg 3.8 rpg 6.6 apg
Turner 14.4 ppg 7.4 rpg 2.2 bpg 52.7% fg%
Miles 12.7 ppg 47% 3p%
Young 11.8 ppg 53.2% fg%
PER
Miles 20.6
Turner 20.0
PG 19.1
Teague 18.8
Seraphin 17.5
WS/48
Miles .182
Turner .152
Teague .113
PG .104
Young .091
RPM
Turner 1.73
Miles 1.68
Teague 1.35
PG 1.23
Young 0.66
Seems like the same names keep popping up. Maybe this is less controversial than I thought.
End notes:
Last season's Pacers were criticized for losing a lot of close games. But the flip side is that they were rarely ever blown out. They lost all of 5 games last season where the losing margin is 15 or greater. This season? There are already 7, and we are only a quarter of the season in.
Closing thoughts:
It hasn't been pretty. Injuries have played a part, especially CJ(!) missing time. And ok, PG too. Not sure that we can address the problem of the boards. We lost a lot of beef from from last year (Mahinmi, J. Hill, Lavoy's role reduced). Playing Seraphin would help. Al Jeff should as well, but it seems that he is still playing his way into shape. Turner tries (rebound numbers are up) but alas that's just not his forte.
But mostly this feels like a team still struggling with its identity. We're playing a smallball style that is ineffective offensively and has massive holes defensively. Something's got to give.
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