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Thread: Is there an opportunity with Portland?

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    Member Grimp's Avatar
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    Question Is there an opportunity with Portland?

    So the experts mostly think Portland made some bad signings this off-season. Evan Turner, even Alan Crabbe and Myers Leonard are looking pretty weak for how much of a contract they were re-signed for. Which begs the question. Could we possibly make a deal with this team while taking on a bad contract as sort of 'the price of doing business'? Evan Turner for example makes $16 mil per year for the next 4 years. Alan Crabbe makes $18 mil per year for the next 4 years.

    CJ McCollum is under contract for the next 5 years at a little over $5 million per season. So would you guys be willing to take on Turner or Crabbe if Portland would surrender CJ in a trade to us where we also throw in a protected 1st in 2018 or 2019?

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    Member PetPaima's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is there an opportunity with Portland?

    CJ is technically about "untradeable" right now. He has already signed an extension and as far as I understand that means that his incoming salary value for trade partner is about 22 mil per year (average for this season + whole extension), but his outgoing salary value is only 3,2 million per year (current contract). Basically impossible to make a trade where values would match under the NBA rules when there is such a disparity in figures...

    McCollum can be forgotten until extension kicks in. Trade for his is impossible except for teams which are way UNDER the salary cap.

    This is called Poison Pill Provision - PPP in trade rule language.
    Last edited by PetPaima; 11-20-2016 at 01:29 PM.

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    Default Re: Is there an opportunity with Portland?

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
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    CJ McCollum is under contract for the next 5 years at a little over $5 million per season. So would you guys be willing to take on Turner or Crabbe if Portland would surrender CJ in a trade to us where we also throw in a protected 1st in 2018 or 2019?
    Didn't notice this at 1st glance. McCollum's salary from next season until 2020-21 averages at over 26 mil per season. See here f ex : http://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/POR.html

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    Default Re: Is there an opportunity with Portland?

    Why would they trade McCollum and Crabbe or Turner?

    Sent from my Nexus 5X

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    Default Re: Is there an opportunity with Portland?

    To explain this Poison Pill Provision little more in mathematical equations :

    Let's make a hypothetical Indiana-Portland trade which includes CJ McCollum (+ multiple other players)

    In this case, Portland's outgoing salary would be : X + 3,219,579. 3,219,579 is McCollum's salary for THIS season. And X represents the total sum of all the other salaries Portland is sending our way.

    Indiana's incoming salary would OTOH be : X + 21,970,606. 21,970,606 is McCollum's average salary for this season + full extension (total of 5 seasons).

    Now, as both Indiana & Portland would END UP above salary cap (we have little room, but McCollum can not obviously fit in it), the maximum incoming salary in a trade depends on amount of outgoing salaries as follows :


    Case 1 :

    If the total outgoing salary < 9,8 million, maximum incoming salary is 150 % + 100,000. So if X < 6,68 million (= Ed Davis), Portland could receive upto 14,8 million.

    However, Pacers would be receiving 28,637,273 (McCollum's average + Ed Davis) and would need to send out a minimum of 22,830,000 in contracts.

    Gap between our minimum outgoing and Portland's maximum incoming is 8 million = IMPOSSIBLE


    Case 2:

    Portland sends out a sum, which falls between 9.8 and 19.6 million. By rules, they can receive outgoing + flat sum of 5 million in excess. As you can see, at the 9.8 million it makes no difference which way you count : 1,5 * 9.8M + 100,000 = 9,8M + 5M.

    At the top end, outgoing salary of 19.6 million would let POR to receive 24.6 million. At that point, the X = 16.48M (f ex Villain alone or Leonard+Ezeli). We would then receive 38.45M and would thus need to send out 38.35M/1.25 = 30.68M.

    Gap has lessened to slightly more than 6 million dollars, but still way out of the range allowed by rules. Thus IMPOSSIBLE.


    Case 3 :

    Both teams trade out more than 19.6 million... Thus both teams can take in 125 % of outgoing + 100,000 dollars.

    We get a following equation :

    (X + 3,219,579)*1,25 + 100,000 >= Y
    Y*1,25 + 100,000 >= X + 21,970,606

    X = Portland's outgoing salaries except for McCollum
    Y = Indiana's outgoing salaries.

    and we end up with an equation :

    ((X + 3,219,579)*1,25 + 100,000)*1,25 + 100,000 = X + 21,970,606
    => (1,25X+4,124,474)*1,25 + 100,000 = X + 21,970,606
    => 1,5625X + 5,255,592 = X + 21,970,606
    => 1,5625X = X + 16,715,014
    => x = 16,715,014 / ,5625 = 29,715,580 USD

    So, to facilitate this trade :

    1) Portland would need to ship out an additional 29,715,580 USD worth of contracts (in addition to McCollum). That could be Crabbe + Meyers Leonard + Vonleh f ex.

    2) We would need to ship out more than 41,2 million worth of contracts back to Portland (in order to fit the calculated value in excess of 51 million which is coming in...) If we suppose to have a 4 players for 4 players trade (so neither have to waive anyone 1st), we would just about reach the target by sending Thad+Monta+AlJeff+Stuckey Portland's way....


    So, question ends up being :

    If you are Portland's GM - would you trade McCollum+Crabbe+Leonard+Vonleh for Thad+Monta+AlJeff+Stuckey WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY putting your team some 8 million dollars above the luxury tax???

    Because that is approximately (as long as PG13 is not going Blazers' way) the only trade which is theoretically available under NBA trade rules...
    Last edited by PetPaima; 11-20-2016 at 05:07 PM.

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    Default Re: Is there an opportunity with Portland?

    I think the only guy on Portland that I would be interested in (that may be available) would be Ed Davis.

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    Default Re: Is there an opportunity with Portland?

    Quote Originally Posted by BornIndy07 View Post
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    Why would they trade McCollum and Crabbe or Turner?

    Sent from my Nexus 5X
    Well the Turner contract might be something Portland would be interested in moving considering right now despite their great backcourt the team is kind of headed nowhere. But to move Turner's deal they'd have to attach CJ with him. Thus move Crabbe into the starting rotation and maybe getting a PF or C piece to build a more complete team by moving CJ.

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    Default Re: Is there an opportunity with Portland?

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
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    Well the Turner contract might be something Portland would be interested in moving considering right now despite their great backcourt the team is kind of headed nowhere. But to move Turner's deal they'd have to attach CJ with him. Thus move Crabbe into the starting rotation and maybe getting a PF or C piece to build a more complete team by moving CJ.
    You understood that McCollum is basically possible to trade (not that they wish to do so) to those teams ONLY which are about 20 million bucks under the SALARY CAP. That list is short : Brooklyn, Denver, Philly.

    The problems of getting the salaries matched under the trade rules make any other transaction for CJ McCollum a practical impossibility until extension kicks in next summer. Besides, any such move would put Portland deep into luxury tax. So - CJ is a "no-move".

    and yes - contracts they splurged out to Villain, Crabbe & Meyers Leonard all seem quite a waste of money and especially roster flexibility. Very bad off-season for TBs

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    Default Re: Is there an opportunity with Portland?

    I think there may be an opportunity with Portland.

    Stuckey and 2nd round pick for Ed Davis.

    Portland gets a versatile player in Stuckey (he has played PG, SG and SF for the Pacers), who is on an expiring contract. Plus they get a 2nd round draft pick.

    Pacers get a back up PF with some size that can rebound and defend...and protect the rim.

    With this move, the Pacers bench would look like this:

    PG-Brooks
    SG-Miles
    SF-GRIII
    PF-Davis
    C-Seraphin

    The starting 5 would not change, however, with Davis at PF and Miles at SG we would see Young and Ellis have their minutes cut to 28-30.

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