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All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

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  • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    Originally posted by Since86 View Post
    Sure, but on a per game basis the differential is pretty small.

    It's the same argument as saying "well yes a penny is pretty worthless, but if you take a million of them.........."
    Uh... that's actually a very good argument. Little things do add up. Especially when we're talking elite level where a small edge can make a big difference.

    Comment


    • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

      Originally posted by Peck View Post
      I guess I always thought Roy's passing was one of his strong suites, so why wouldn't you use them. In this case it shows that he is the same, it makes sense to me to include that.
      I always tend to think you have to be careful on normalizing numbers like this. Per 36 assumes a lot and many of us already know this but I will make a point of it just to remind ourselves of these things. Roys 2012/13 fg numbers are altered due to his wrist injury. To what extent we don't know but we can't just assume people are on the same level physically through out their career and that their numbers don't reflect that. We also don't know if he has managed his asthma the same through out. I bring this up because of his recent comments. He used Shaw as an example of a coach who "knows" what its like. The example IIRC was that of back to back games and being tired. This is a guy who played 25.3 minutes per game last year. Roys numbers and impact are not linear and so normalizing them is a quick and easy way of comparing but in reality him playing 25.3 minutes at a meh level is not telling the full story to his previous years.

      I should also note that you guys are using a lockout shorten season in your stats and probably not really considering the 19 extra playoff games that the Pacers played 2 seasons prior to this one. This to me adds up and even more so to a big guy like Roy.
      Last edited by Gamble1; 07-28-2015, 01:09 PM.

      Comment


      • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

        Originally posted by Since86 View Post
        That's not what we are discussing. That's what you are discussing.

        The rest of us are looking at Roy's seasonal output compared to his seasonal averages. Of course a player is going to decline from his best year. That's common sense, and no one is denying it.
        You did deny it. You said that Roy was what Roy was, and had always been. I said BS because he played well, got paid 15 mil, and has never been that Roy since. You've been proven wrong so you are changing what the initial disagreement I had with you was about.
        Danger Zone

        Comment


        • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

          Originally posted by Since86 View Post
          Sure, but on a per game basis the differential is pretty small.

          It's the same argument as saying "well yes a penny is pretty worthless, but if you take a million of them.........."
          I'm not even talking anywhere near that order of magnitude. We're essentially saying that a penny is pretty worthless but 5 of them make a nickle. If you want a 5-cent cigar and only have 4, you can't get it even if you're close.

          A 25% drop in assists means that every 4th game 2 (or 3) points do not go on the scoreboard compared to the previous year. That is a heck of a lot closer to individually significant than a million pennies (or even a hundred).
          BillS

          A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
          Or throw in a first-round pick and flip it for a max-level point guard...

          Comment


          • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

            Originally posted by Since86 View Post
            Dovetails right back into what I was saying about expectations.

            Is Roy worth 15M a year? I doubt even his most ardent supporter would say "yes."
            Doesn't this mean that Roy isn't the same player? Because he was unquestionably worth 15 mill for at least 2 years.

            Also, what if Hibbert is about the same but the league isn't? And the league has changed so dramatically that the slightest drop off from Roy makes him unplayable because he can't offset his weaknesses as much.

            Comment


            • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

              Originally posted by wintermute View Post
              Uh... that's actually a very good argument. Little things do add up. Especially when we're talking elite level where a small edge can make a big difference.
              Again, sure. But I keep using this term "real world application."

              Two pennies is 100% more than one. It's real world difference? Not much.
              Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

              Comment


              • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                Originally posted by freddielewis14 View Post
                Doesn't this mean that Roy isn't the same player? Because he was unquestionably worth 15 mill for at least 2 years.
                I never thought Roy was worth that much. The only reason he got a max contract is because Portland tried prying him away. Market value isn't the same as production value.
                Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

                Comment


                • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                  Originally posted by Since86 View Post
                  Again, sure. But I keep using this term "real world application."

                  Two pennies is 100% more than one. It's real world difference? Not much.
                  Tell that to the pharmaceutical companies, because if it goes from 3 heart attacks per 1,000 people to 2 heart attack per 1,000 people, it is advertised as a 66% decrease in heart attacks and sold for billions.
                  Danger Zone

                  Comment


                  • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                    Originally posted by Since86 View Post
                    I never thought Roy was worth that much. The only reason he got a max contract is because Portland tried prying him away. Market value isn't the same as production value.
                    Well that and in general big's get paid significantly more and often times far more than their production merits (Jim McIlvaine come on down)


                    Basketball isn't played with computers, spreadsheets, and simulations. ChicagoJ 4/21/13

                    Comment


                    • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                      Originally posted by Since86 View Post
                      Just because someone favors advanced stats, doesn't mean they favor all advanced stats. I like to stick with the ones that use, to use a term I've already said, simple math and in game measureable statistics, like FGA-FGM, rebs, steals, assists, turnovers, etc.

                      I think some advanced stats go way too far.
                      FGM/FGA is FG% which I assume you accept?

                      It's really funny because Hibbert's decline (and recovery) in PER is entirely linked to his FG%. So PER actually fits your criteria with respect to Hibbert.

                      EDIT: See what I mean

                      11-12 PER 19.3 FG% 49.7
                      12-13 PER 17.3 FG% 44.8
                      13-14 PER 13.5 FG% 43.9
                      14-15 PER 15.4 FG% 44.6
                      Last edited by wintermute; 07-28-2015, 01:24 PM.

                      Comment


                      • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                        Originally posted by wintermute View Post
                        FGM/FGA is FG% which I assume you accept?

                        It's really funny because Hibbert's decline (and recovery) in PER is entirely linked to his FG%. So PER actually fits your criteria with respect to Hibbert.

                        EDIT: See what I mean

                        11-12 PER 19.3 FG% 49.7
                        12-13 PER 17.3 FG% 44.8
                        13-14 PER 13.5 FG% 43.9
                        14-15 PER 15.4 FG% 44.6
                        It's actually linked more to his decline in PPG, which is more linked to FGA per game.

                        The article I quoted about the PER explains it.
                        Measuring Shooting Efficiency
                        Looking at the specific weights Hollinger chooses we see another problem. In discussing the NBA Efficiency metric – which the NBA presents at its website – I argued that this measure fails to penalize inefficient shooting. The regression of wins on offensive and defensive efficiency reveals that shooting efficiency impacts outcomes in basketball. The ball does indeed have to go through the hoop for a team to be successful.

                        The same critique offered for NBA Efficiency also applies to Hollinger’s PERs, except the problem is even worse. Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points.

                        Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA played does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots.

                        But again, our model of wins suggests that inefficient shooting does not help a team win more games. Hence the conflict between PERs and Wins Produced. Hollinger has set his weights so that inefficient scorers still look pretty good. We argue that inefficient scoring reduces a team’s ability to win games, and therefore these players are not nearly as effective as people might believe.
                        http://wagesofwins.com/2006/11/17/a-...ciency-rating/

                        Roy could shoot even worse, take more shots, and get a higher PER out of it. One of the many reasons why PER isn't any good.
                        Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

                        Comment


                        • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                          Originally posted by BillS View Post
                          Which is what makes the extremes of argument around Roy so silly, really. We're only arguing whether he sucks or just isn't worth his pay, not whether he sucks or is a basketball god.

                          The problem seems to be that his being "average" includes having one or two things he seems to be very good at. We're basically arguing if his flaws in other areas are completely outweighed by his skills in others. Well, except for the people trying to argue he really has no skills, but that's a different branch.
                          To me I see it less to do with numbers and more to do with change. I believe people see the need to change differently and Roy has been one of the main debating points to the overall argument. One thing for sure though is that this team had two windows for a championship. The West/Roy era with PG at the helm and the post West/Roy era and I think people hate the fact that we are now in that post West/Hibbert era because we got a taste of the ECF's and many thought we could of gotten back there this year and extend that first window even though it closing rather quickly.

                          Comment


                          • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                            Originally posted by Since86 View Post
                            It's actually linked more to his decline in PPG, which is more linked to FGA per game.
                            Not really

                            11-12 PER 19.3 PPG 12.8 FGA 10.3
                            12-13 PER 17.3 PPG 11.9 FGA 10.9
                            13-14 PER 13.5 PPG 10.8 FGA 9.3
                            14-15 PER 15.4 PPG 10.6 FGA 9.3

                            14-15 disproves it.

                            PER does have that flaw, but it doesn't apply to Roy. Roy's shot attempts have been fairly constant through his career, with the exception of his rookie season. So PER is actually a good stat for him.

                            Comment


                            • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                              Originally posted by wintermute View Post
                              PER does have that flaw, but it doesn't apply to Roy. Roy's shot attempts have been fairly constant through his career, with the exception of his rookie season. So PER is actually a good stat for him.
                              If Roy shot more, and his FG% dipped, his PER would go up. That is a mathematical fact. Would we then say "Roy is playing better because his PER went up?" I would say no, and I'd hope you'd join me.

                              If the stat has that flaw, it has that flaw when talking about Roy. I don't think there's a Roy Hibbert Exception PER rule.
                              Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

                              Comment


                              • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                                Originally posted by Since86 View Post
                                If Roy shot more, and his FG% dipped, his PER would go up. That is a mathematical fact. Would we then say "Roy is playing better because his PER went up?" I would say no, and I'd hope you'd join me.

                                If the stat has that flaw, it has that flaw when talking about Roy. I don't think there's a Roy Hibbert Exception PER rule.
                                Yes, but Roy didn't shoot more. He shot less. I already posted his FGA by year.

                                That PER flaw you keep harping on only applies when a player puts up 20+ FGA a game. It doesn't apply to Roy. Call it the Kobe exception if you want.

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