It was mentioned by Jay Bilas last night, during the broadcast, that Turner had put up much better numbers against lower level competition than he did against the better opponents in his one year of college. While I knew that already, I had never broken down the numbers in that way.
Today, I went thru all of his game logs, just to see how that broke down.
I present to you his numbers in 25 games versus "BCS", major college competition. You can use these numbers however you wish. Obviously, statistics can be used in a variety of ways to support several different arguments.....intelligent people can understand that.
Here are the raw numbers. In my view, they show just that Turner may even be more of a long term project than many of you realize:
AGAINST MAJOR COLLEGE COMPETITION:
25 games
22.8 minutes per game
62-132 from two point range.........47.0% from 2pt range
10-48 from 3 point range..............20.8% from 3pt range
10 assists TOTAL...........................0.4 assists per game
160 rebounds TOTAL......................6.4 rebounds per game
64 blocks......................................2.6 blocks per game2
206 points TOTAL...........................8.24 ppg
I think we can all agree that his stats, modest though they were in total anyway, were greatly enhanced by how he beat up on some of the patsies and cupcakes on the Texas schedule.
Now, statistics aren't everything of course. Clearly though, this is a "projection" type long term scenario.....this kid needs a lot of time and lots of patience from all of us.
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The Pacers clearly, even they would admit, had their minds up very early in the draft process that they really wanted to use this pick on a front court player. It would seem that they were going to do that no matter who was actually available to them. For the record, I feel like they should have been much more open minded in their thinking than that, as I would have considered the entire smorgasboard of players, and not just bigger players.
But, they made that decision, and it is what it is.
So, going by that thinking, based on the remaining big guys left on the board in real life, and how I personally ranked them, I had Portis ranked at #12 (he went #22 in reality), Turner at #13 (he went #11 in reality), and Lyles at #17 (he went #12 in reality).
Since I had Portis and Turner ranked back to back, I cannot really complain about the Pacers taking the higher upside pick in Turner over Portis. I considered Portis to have a high floor/lower ceiling, and Turner to have a much lower floor but a much higher ceiling than Portis does. This is very much a long term, high risk/high reward selection. I am fine with making that type of gamble clearly.
Obviously, I see the thinking that we HAD TO TAKE A BIG as completely flawed. I clearly would have taken Devin Booker (#6 on my big board, went #13 in reality) if I were making the choice, and I more likely than not would have taken Payne (#11 on my board, went #14 in reality) as well, based on the information I have available now.
All of that being said, the pick itself isn't as worrisome to me as the PROCESS that led to the pick.
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Here are some other thoughts the day after draft night 2015:
-We must have patience with the coaching staff to not complain when they have to bring Turner along very slowly.
-We must have patience with Turner himself, both with his on court play and whatever youthful mistakes he may make in social media or in whatever happens, as he grows up. We have to remember that this kid is just that, still a kid.
-Our training staff must fix his issues, maintain his conditioning and health, and continue to make sure he takes care of himself in all ways as he lives on his own for the first time. From a physical standpoint, Turner is likely to be rather high maintenance.
-I assume that his own personal trainer, a guy named Slim Roberson, will likely be coming with him to live. We should probably agree to that and maybe hire the guy ourselves even, just to keep the kid comfortable.
-We as fans must also realize that, with Indiana choosing to take an extremely raw kid, that the signal that sends to prospective free agents is one that we don't consider ourselves serious contenders in the short term. We should not be surprised if that perception becomes reality for guys like Rodney Stuckey and other guys who may consider greener pastures to play for pseudo-contenders elsewhere. It doesn't matter if that is true, it only matters that players on other teams may perceive that to be the case.
-The time to litigate the Turner vs Booker or Payne or Lyles or whomever is over. Now it is time to support Myles Turner, because he is ours to grow and build with.
-Turner is a high character, charismatic, highly intelligent kid we all should be supportive of. But do you know who else is all of that in my opinion? Roy Hibbert. We should be supporting him also.
-I find the vitriol being spewed at Roy Hibbert very off putting, and beneath us as intelligent fans. In the end, Hibbert is probably a bit better than most of us thought he might be originally, and he has been a huge part of some of the most exciting basketball our franchise has seen in many years. We should respect that he has done all he has done without a lot of natural athletic ability....he has had to work to get all he can out of his body and mind that he can give.
-Speaking of that, I am tired of people complaining about players based on how much money they make. Why do we do that? I know Hibbert would be a lot more popular with fans if we wasn't making 15 million a year.....but why in reality does that matter to us? Do we go to a movie, and complain about what salary Tom Cruise or Will Smith made in whatever terrible movie we just watched?
-I'll have a full breakdown of Joe Young in a few days....I loved that pick, as Indiana took the only person still on my list of likely 2nd round picks I put on here early this week. I had Rozier, Hanlon, and Young ranked from 31-33, and the first 2 of that list had already been taken. Young will clearly make our team in my opinion.
-I'll also start working on some cap information for us by July 1. I know we all need some clarifications and more in-depth knowledge of how all of this could work as he head into July. There is also almost nobody in local media who fully understands exactly how the cap works, so be careful what you believe based on what you hear on the radio or read in the paper.
-It is undesirable in my opinion as a franchise to operate from under the cap like we are....it would be better to be slightly over the cap and under the luxury tax line, which serves as a de facto hard cap for our ownership. I'll have some more ideas about how to maneuver a few things to help our cause slightly in the upcoming days.
Tbird
Today, I went thru all of his game logs, just to see how that broke down.
I present to you his numbers in 25 games versus "BCS", major college competition. You can use these numbers however you wish. Obviously, statistics can be used in a variety of ways to support several different arguments.....intelligent people can understand that.
Here are the raw numbers. In my view, they show just that Turner may even be more of a long term project than many of you realize:
AGAINST MAJOR COLLEGE COMPETITION:
25 games
22.8 minutes per game
62-132 from two point range.........47.0% from 2pt range
10-48 from 3 point range..............20.8% from 3pt range
10 assists TOTAL...........................0.4 assists per game
160 rebounds TOTAL......................6.4 rebounds per game
64 blocks......................................2.6 blocks per game2
206 points TOTAL...........................8.24 ppg
I think we can all agree that his stats, modest though they were in total anyway, were greatly enhanced by how he beat up on some of the patsies and cupcakes on the Texas schedule.
Now, statistics aren't everything of course. Clearly though, this is a "projection" type long term scenario.....this kid needs a lot of time and lots of patience from all of us.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Pacers clearly, even they would admit, had their minds up very early in the draft process that they really wanted to use this pick on a front court player. It would seem that they were going to do that no matter who was actually available to them. For the record, I feel like they should have been much more open minded in their thinking than that, as I would have considered the entire smorgasboard of players, and not just bigger players.
But, they made that decision, and it is what it is.
So, going by that thinking, based on the remaining big guys left on the board in real life, and how I personally ranked them, I had Portis ranked at #12 (he went #22 in reality), Turner at #13 (he went #11 in reality), and Lyles at #17 (he went #12 in reality).
Since I had Portis and Turner ranked back to back, I cannot really complain about the Pacers taking the higher upside pick in Turner over Portis. I considered Portis to have a high floor/lower ceiling, and Turner to have a much lower floor but a much higher ceiling than Portis does. This is very much a long term, high risk/high reward selection. I am fine with making that type of gamble clearly.
Obviously, I see the thinking that we HAD TO TAKE A BIG as completely flawed. I clearly would have taken Devin Booker (#6 on my big board, went #13 in reality) if I were making the choice, and I more likely than not would have taken Payne (#11 on my board, went #14 in reality) as well, based on the information I have available now.
All of that being said, the pick itself isn't as worrisome to me as the PROCESS that led to the pick.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here are some other thoughts the day after draft night 2015:
-We must have patience with the coaching staff to not complain when they have to bring Turner along very slowly.
-We must have patience with Turner himself, both with his on court play and whatever youthful mistakes he may make in social media or in whatever happens, as he grows up. We have to remember that this kid is just that, still a kid.
-Our training staff must fix his issues, maintain his conditioning and health, and continue to make sure he takes care of himself in all ways as he lives on his own for the first time. From a physical standpoint, Turner is likely to be rather high maintenance.
-I assume that his own personal trainer, a guy named Slim Roberson, will likely be coming with him to live. We should probably agree to that and maybe hire the guy ourselves even, just to keep the kid comfortable.
-We as fans must also realize that, with Indiana choosing to take an extremely raw kid, that the signal that sends to prospective free agents is one that we don't consider ourselves serious contenders in the short term. We should not be surprised if that perception becomes reality for guys like Rodney Stuckey and other guys who may consider greener pastures to play for pseudo-contenders elsewhere. It doesn't matter if that is true, it only matters that players on other teams may perceive that to be the case.
-The time to litigate the Turner vs Booker or Payne or Lyles or whomever is over. Now it is time to support Myles Turner, because he is ours to grow and build with.
-Turner is a high character, charismatic, highly intelligent kid we all should be supportive of. But do you know who else is all of that in my opinion? Roy Hibbert. We should be supporting him also.
-I find the vitriol being spewed at Roy Hibbert very off putting, and beneath us as intelligent fans. In the end, Hibbert is probably a bit better than most of us thought he might be originally, and he has been a huge part of some of the most exciting basketball our franchise has seen in many years. We should respect that he has done all he has done without a lot of natural athletic ability....he has had to work to get all he can out of his body and mind that he can give.
-Speaking of that, I am tired of people complaining about players based on how much money they make. Why do we do that? I know Hibbert would be a lot more popular with fans if we wasn't making 15 million a year.....but why in reality does that matter to us? Do we go to a movie, and complain about what salary Tom Cruise or Will Smith made in whatever terrible movie we just watched?
-I'll have a full breakdown of Joe Young in a few days....I loved that pick, as Indiana took the only person still on my list of likely 2nd round picks I put on here early this week. I had Rozier, Hanlon, and Young ranked from 31-33, and the first 2 of that list had already been taken. Young will clearly make our team in my opinion.
-I'll also start working on some cap information for us by July 1. I know we all need some clarifications and more in-depth knowledge of how all of this could work as he head into July. There is also almost nobody in local media who fully understands exactly how the cap works, so be careful what you believe based on what you hear on the radio or read in the paper.
-It is undesirable in my opinion as a franchise to operate from under the cap like we are....it would be better to be slightly over the cap and under the luxury tax line, which serves as a de facto hard cap for our ownership. I'll have some more ideas about how to maneuver a few things to help our cause slightly in the upcoming days.
Tbird
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