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10 days before draft night 2015, so today we journey to the Lone Star state to take a look at a rare center prospect available at this point in the draft, University of Texas center Myles Turner. In previous draft articles this year, I have examined 3 players I have given my total stamp of approval to: (in alphabetical order): Devin Booker, Stanley Johnson, and Frank Kaminsky. I was lukewarm on Tyus Jones and Willie Cauley Stein at best, and I have recommended that the Pacers make a hard pass on Kevon Looney, Jerien Grant, Kelly Oubre and Trey Lyles.
Today, we examine Myles Turner in depth, and try to see which one of those groups he belongs in.
Turner provides a rare opportunity to draft a center, without being in the top 5 of the draft. Despite his protests to the contrary, Turner is a 5 man and nothing else, and I don't project him to have any positional versatility. He measured in at 6'11 1/2 inches, with a wingspan of 7'4. Turner weighs a rather skinny 239lbs but has room to strengthen his body, though I don't think you'd want to add any weight to his body based on how he plays and moves on the court.
Speaking of his movement and body type, that has been a major topic of discussion and investigation already so far with Turner. His agent has tried to get ahead of the game by releasing his medical findings and results from a biomechanical tests that he had Turner go thru....those results if you want to find them are on draftexpress.com, among other places, under the players profile.
Not included in that article is the fact that Turner has extremely oddly shaped feet reportedly. He actually should fit into a size 19 shoe, but because of the strange shape of his feet and the way he runs, Texas had to get him a specially made size 21 shoe for his comfort.
Whether his actual biomechanical and physical running issues can be solved or mitigated is a puzzle and mystery that teams interested in him will have to decide for themselves. He clearly is slow and struggles to move his body in an efficient way in just running and sliding and making basketball movements. He takes little choppy steps, and seems to struggle to sprint and change direction. His agent seems to say that those all can be fixed with exercises and therapy......but what will the teams believe?
Teams all have medical experts that study such things in their private workouts they have with players. Little known technology has been out there for years, as teams have looked for an edge in trying to predict future injuries based on how athletes move.....it isn't new science, though it is new to most of the public.
I have no clue who the Pacers use now for this specific purpose, but I do know they have long been in the forefront of such research. Here is a link to their former person they consulted with in regards to drafting or signing players with biometrical concerns: http://donecamps.com/don_hoover
I have met Don and discussed matters like these with him in the past, so I have emailed him about Turner's specific test report just to see if he will give me any opinions about his peculiar movement style and pigeon toed type of run......it is hard to see on tape the exact problems from a sideline view, but from just a back view you can see that his knees come way too close together when he runs, and his entire gait is crooked. It certainly will have to get fixed for Turner to be able to survive big minutes over an 82 game schedule and playoffs.
If Don emails me back with any opinions, I will add it to the bottom of this report.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Turner, like most big guys, is likely to be a late bloomer. Born on March 24, 1996, Turner is all Texas, born and raised. He played for a traditional football school there just outside of Bedford Texas called Trinity High School, where he grew into the eventual #2 ranked player in his high school class, ahead of many of the players who will likely be drafted ahead of him on draft night. Turner played for the prestigious USA basketball program, mainly as a role player who played 15 minutes or so per game.
While not exactly a basketball prodigy, Turner played baseball and football until he outgrew both sports, and his family has had the means to provide him with a personal trainer since the age of 13, an athletic training legend named Slim Roberson, who also trained other Texas school boy greats named LaMarcus Aldridge, Chris Bosh, and Karl Malone. Roberson followed him to college, and will likely be part of the package that goes with Turner wherever he is drafted.
Turner is an extremely well spoken and intelligent young man, who has a strong intellectual basketball understanding even if he can't always translate it yet to the floor. He rides a bike everywhere he goes since it easier on his feet and legs, and likely will be among the best interviews on the team he ends up on from day 1. He also has a strong chance to be the best dressed/most uniquely attired player at draft night, which is always a fun things to watch from afar.....Turner is fond of bow ties and fashion in general.
His college career was not nearly as successful as it could have been playing for the mess that was Texas under former coach Rick Barnes. In playing style, development, strategy, and personnel around him, Austin was about the worst city he could have chosen to play in last year. Playing out of position at the 4 some, and coming off the bench sometimes also, Turner struggled to only a 10.1ppg and 6.5 RPG over just 22 minutes a night. He put up huge numbers as a shot blocker for Texas, averaging over 2.6 blocks a night, and did even better than that playing for Team USA last summer. Turner is a huge favorite of the analytical crowd, as they rate him much higher in advanced stats than even some of the very top names in this draft, mainly due to his high free throw percentage of 83.9%, and his rim protection.
Analytics aside, let me truly put his game to the test in the scouting report below.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unlike many players in this draft, Turner at least POTENTIALLY, gives you some value on the court at both ends. Let's break it down and look at his offensive game first from a scouts point of view.
You have to dream on Turner and project him to what he could be in your mind 3 to 4 years from now, because right now, he isn't nearly as good as his reputation says he is.
On the block in a traditional center's role, Turner has one post move and one post move only, which is a right shoulder fadeaway jumper. He shoots this shot with nice technique and a high finish and follow through, and really good touch. It is a major NBA ready weapon potentially. Any of the older fans on here remember the pet move of James, "Buddha" Edwards? It is a very similar looking move and result as he had back 30 years ago.
Of course, there is a reason why this is the move that Turner prefers right now, which is that he is so weak physically that he can't go through any contact, so he has to jump away from the defense. Turner has no clue and has been poorly coached to this point in how to gain low post position with his feet, and how to hold it. He is very easy to push off the block, even by shorter players who can gain leverage on him by pushing at his lower body and torso. Turner makes himself weak by not getting his knees flexed when he posts up, standing straight up in the post and looking like a baby deer on ice skates.
When the defense can take away his one pet move, at this point in his development, Turner has no real countermoves. He can't go to his left shoulder at all, and he can't dribble in any sort of traffic.....which means that once he is pushed off his spot, that currently he can't take even 1 or 2 dribbles to get where he wants to go. His footwork is about as bad as I have seen a player have in the low post, so whoever drafts him in my view has a major long term project in teaching him how to be a back to the basket low post player.
Other back to the basket problems are aplenty for him. Turner is an awful passer, not because I think he is selfish, but because I think he just struggles at this point to control his limbs so much that he loses track of the defense, especially if he teams "dig" or swipe him in the low post when he has the ball. He also has absolutely no left hand, so he struggles to either pass or finish plays around the rim over size since he brings everything back to his strong hand. He basically has to either take the fadeaway jumper or face up and take a long jumper over the defense.....both of those are inefficient shots by the way.
Basically, what I am saying is this: currently, with his back to the basket offensively, Turner sucks. His footwork is at an elementary level, and his body isn't currently ready for NBA speed and power. Now, can you dream on him, and teach him how to play slowly day by day and potentially eventually have something really good? But for now, he basically is unplayable offensively if he has to play against dudes his own size with length and/or strength.
Yes, I think you can dream on him and project him out, but it is years and years away in my view. But, at just age 19, he has plenty of time, and if he is taught correctly and holds up health wise, by age 23 or so he will be a 4 year veteran who is just entering his prime.....the question is, do you want to wait that long and can you as an organization develop him correctly, and do you even want to?
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Turner's jump shot and face up game are potentially much better, though from my scouting eye I think at this point they are overrated.
Turner does have really good shooting mechanics, though they aren't perfect. His release is a little slow, and his arc is WAY WAY too high in my opinion. His shots are the prettiest in the nation when they go in, but he only actually makes 27.4% from downtown in college. I do think that will improve to a 35%-38% eventually in the NBA level potentially, but there are problems even in that!
How will you get him those shots? Can he move well enough to be a "pick and pop" guy? To do that, you have to have agility enough to get space....and Turner needs a little extra room to shoot accurately anyway. Plus, Turner at this point HAS NOTHING HE CAN DO WHEN THE DEFENSE RECOVERS TO HIM IN TIME. Seriously, he can't drive a bad closeout, and he can't pass when pressured....he is a turnover waiting to happen. And, he isn't going to be able to roll hard to the rim after a ballscreen and collect lobs or at least shrink the defense, because he isn't going to be athletic enough to do any of that well enough to scare anyone.
I think Turner will look good in workouts by himself, but I don't see him being a very good player in 5 on 5 situations right now.
Again, you can dream on him if you have vision and patience. Maybe 4 years from now he is improved enough with his body to be flexible enough to get open....maybe he develops a one dribble floater game, and maybe he becomes a player who can actually attack and create against a bad closeout.
But, I don't see a particularly strong weapon here with him as a shooter, particularly because I worry about him becoming over reliant on it, and actually hurting his development in other areas.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We all know that you can win with a defensive minded, rebounding center. So how does Turner project in those areas?
As a rebounder, he certainly puts up decent stats. 6.5 rebounds in college in just 22 minutes is a solid rate, and almost 5 a game for team USA in just 15 minutes a game is solid also....generally, I look for a rebound every 4 minutes of play as a scout, so at least he has some production.
But again, it isn't as good a picture as the raw numbers seem to paint, at least for me.
Turner is a poor rebounder versus teams and players that can match his size and length. Turner is a high effort, box out and hold type of defensive rebounder, and he works as hard as he can to attack the ball in the air. He also has pretty good hands and doesn't lose the ball once he has it. This high effort fundamental style works much of the time.
But.....he misses rebounds against better players, who easily just body him underneath the rim, putting him out of the action as the ball goes over his head. Some dudes are so freaking athletic that they just leap up and reach backwards well and get rebounds like this anyway, but Turner is among the 98% of the human population who can't do that. Turner might lead the league in rebounds that he tries to get but can't, as the ball sails just over his hand and over his head to the guy behind him. He simply lacks strength in his core and balance, and his leg issues show up here because he has a narrower base to gather strength with.
He will be an average defensive rebounder in the NBA due to effort and technique, but until he gets entirely more agile, substantially more strong in his core, and in much better athletic shape he will never be much better than average. Look for his raw numbers to go down a bit most likely.
Again, you still have the dream. 4 years from now he might have entirely different body as he grows and matures and learns how to use leverage...the kid does seem smart and teachable.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What is Turner like defensively?
This is where he can hang his hat potentially earlier in his career, though this isn't all rainbows and unicorns either.
Turner is statistically just a good a rim protector as Karl Anthony Towns, except that Turner got almost all of his blocks against smaller players coming from off the ball. That is a highly effective thing for a player to have, but it isn't the same as having a center who can single handedly block the shots one on one of other back to the basket centers.
Still, any good defensive team needs at least some rim protection, and Turner potentially can provide that. One potential flaw I see however is the same flaw that effects his offensive game inside, which is that TURNER HAS NO LEFT HAND. Turner blocks all shots with his right hand, even if he has to allow the ballhandler past him to for the block that way, or even if he has to allow the offensive guy to get an angle on him so he can turn in such a way to block it from behind or the side.
It is my experience that this cannot be taught or fixed, so he will likely always be a right handed shot blocker only. That means he will likely struggle with foul trouble at the next level some, which is also indicated by what is at this point less than average quickness and maneuverability. At the college level, Turner struggled with the verticality rule, so any team who picks him will have to get that idea taught to him.
Off the ball, I think he ends up projecting as an above average rim protector in time, but not necessarily super special because he will have other defensive flaws that will mitigate it.
On the ball, defending his own man in the low post, I'd be worried about him.
He does have high effort, but he is so weak and so clumsy that I think most slower and smaller dudes will still be able to get position on him, and use their higher skill level to take advantage of his poor footwork and oddly shaped body. Teams ran many seal plays against him, and he struggled to defend them due to his lack of balance and strength. Foul trouble will be a big deal early, but his length will help him against smaller guys at least, so he will be able in time I think to at least hold his own water. But against the top notch post guys, he likely will need double team help some of the time to have a chance. In other words, he will be good against the non elite guys, but not a top NBA all defensive team guy or anything.
Against the ball screen is where you have to worry the most. Texas hid him as much as they could by playing a lot of 2-3 zone, but NBA teams wont have that choice. He will need to play on a team that plays far back and sags (like Indiana does currently), because he won't have any chance to be a guy who can hedge, trap, slide/drag, blitz, "cling", or any other choice.....he is limited in value as a rim protector only in this circumstance.
Still, I like Turner's effort and intelligence defensively. I do think that he ends up being above average in an overall package, I just don't see him as a huge difference maker on that end. Teams will have to account for and plan for him, but they will be able to do that....and he will be a potential liability against the ballscreen, so much so that you might not be able to play him.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, what do we have in Myles Turner?
We have an extremely likeable, well spoken, high character intelligent big man with a lot of development to do, and who has severe body and health question marks that may or may not be fixable. We have a guy who clearly isn't ready to play right away, and who will in my view need 2 to 3 years to become playable in an important NBA game. We have a guy who has an overrated jump shot, who shoots free throws well but who won't get fouled that much. We have a guy who has raw tools, but no clue how to play yet from an offensive point of view.
Turner to me has proven how raw he is by being a non factor in many big games Texas played last year. He got his arse kicked by Kentucky, and looked like he didn't belong when he played any sort of well coached or decent sized opponent next year. He will look better in workouts than he did on tape, and I am sure he will interview well. I actually like his potential, but I just also know what a long process it will be to get him to that point, and I don't think he is good enough to wait on, especially in this above average draft. I'd pick him ahead of some guys I have profiled, but not enough.
I think the Pacers will pass on draft night in regards to Turner, and he certainly wouldn't be one of my top choices either. However, his potential, if he reaches it, is higher than some others......I think he has a medium high ceiling but a very low floor.
Pacers will pass I think, and I think there will be better options on the board as well.
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Comps are difficult in some ways, because there never really has been a rim protecting, jump shooting combination like Turner could potential be if he hits the absolute highest ceiling that he can be.
In the end, I see a player with a shorter career, who also takes a while to develop....maybe a 5-7 year career with some higher end play in the middle, marred by the potential of injuries derailing him.
So in the end, I am going with.....
NBA comparable: Sam Bowie
I could be wrong about Turner as well of course. get him on the right team who is patient and can help him develop slowly, and he can be something..... Andrew Bynum landed in a perfect place for him in Los Angeles a few years ago, who is another player that I can see Turner being like.
In this case, I think his most likely landing spots (and the best for him) are Boston at #16 (or in a trade up scenario), Oklahoma City at #14 (Serge Ibaka is ideal to play next to him eventually, and they can bring him along slowly there), or Phoenix at #13 (best training staff to handle his physical issues).
In the end, I suspect he ends up a Boston Celtic on draft night, somehow, someway.
Of course, my opinions are just my own, and feel free to disagree if you so wish. We know Turner is working hard in Las Vegas with the Impact gym and training staff, and we know that he has high character and a strong work ethic. He is very much a long term pick with not much short term impact, but he does have long term value if you can harness it and bring it out of him.
I just don't see Indiana as the place that will end up happening....but I have been wrong before.
Tbird
Today, we examine Myles Turner in depth, and try to see which one of those groups he belongs in.
Turner provides a rare opportunity to draft a center, without being in the top 5 of the draft. Despite his protests to the contrary, Turner is a 5 man and nothing else, and I don't project him to have any positional versatility. He measured in at 6'11 1/2 inches, with a wingspan of 7'4. Turner weighs a rather skinny 239lbs but has room to strengthen his body, though I don't think you'd want to add any weight to his body based on how he plays and moves on the court.
Speaking of his movement and body type, that has been a major topic of discussion and investigation already so far with Turner. His agent has tried to get ahead of the game by releasing his medical findings and results from a biomechanical tests that he had Turner go thru....those results if you want to find them are on draftexpress.com, among other places, under the players profile.
Not included in that article is the fact that Turner has extremely oddly shaped feet reportedly. He actually should fit into a size 19 shoe, but because of the strange shape of his feet and the way he runs, Texas had to get him a specially made size 21 shoe for his comfort.
Whether his actual biomechanical and physical running issues can be solved or mitigated is a puzzle and mystery that teams interested in him will have to decide for themselves. He clearly is slow and struggles to move his body in an efficient way in just running and sliding and making basketball movements. He takes little choppy steps, and seems to struggle to sprint and change direction. His agent seems to say that those all can be fixed with exercises and therapy......but what will the teams believe?
Teams all have medical experts that study such things in their private workouts they have with players. Little known technology has been out there for years, as teams have looked for an edge in trying to predict future injuries based on how athletes move.....it isn't new science, though it is new to most of the public.
I have no clue who the Pacers use now for this specific purpose, but I do know they have long been in the forefront of such research. Here is a link to their former person they consulted with in regards to drafting or signing players with biometrical concerns: http://donecamps.com/don_hoover
I have met Don and discussed matters like these with him in the past, so I have emailed him about Turner's specific test report just to see if he will give me any opinions about his peculiar movement style and pigeon toed type of run......it is hard to see on tape the exact problems from a sideline view, but from just a back view you can see that his knees come way too close together when he runs, and his entire gait is crooked. It certainly will have to get fixed for Turner to be able to survive big minutes over an 82 game schedule and playoffs.
If Don emails me back with any opinions, I will add it to the bottom of this report.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Turner, like most big guys, is likely to be a late bloomer. Born on March 24, 1996, Turner is all Texas, born and raised. He played for a traditional football school there just outside of Bedford Texas called Trinity High School, where he grew into the eventual #2 ranked player in his high school class, ahead of many of the players who will likely be drafted ahead of him on draft night. Turner played for the prestigious USA basketball program, mainly as a role player who played 15 minutes or so per game.
While not exactly a basketball prodigy, Turner played baseball and football until he outgrew both sports, and his family has had the means to provide him with a personal trainer since the age of 13, an athletic training legend named Slim Roberson, who also trained other Texas school boy greats named LaMarcus Aldridge, Chris Bosh, and Karl Malone. Roberson followed him to college, and will likely be part of the package that goes with Turner wherever he is drafted.
Turner is an extremely well spoken and intelligent young man, who has a strong intellectual basketball understanding even if he can't always translate it yet to the floor. He rides a bike everywhere he goes since it easier on his feet and legs, and likely will be among the best interviews on the team he ends up on from day 1. He also has a strong chance to be the best dressed/most uniquely attired player at draft night, which is always a fun things to watch from afar.....Turner is fond of bow ties and fashion in general.
His college career was not nearly as successful as it could have been playing for the mess that was Texas under former coach Rick Barnes. In playing style, development, strategy, and personnel around him, Austin was about the worst city he could have chosen to play in last year. Playing out of position at the 4 some, and coming off the bench sometimes also, Turner struggled to only a 10.1ppg and 6.5 RPG over just 22 minutes a night. He put up huge numbers as a shot blocker for Texas, averaging over 2.6 blocks a night, and did even better than that playing for Team USA last summer. Turner is a huge favorite of the analytical crowd, as they rate him much higher in advanced stats than even some of the very top names in this draft, mainly due to his high free throw percentage of 83.9%, and his rim protection.
Analytics aside, let me truly put his game to the test in the scouting report below.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unlike many players in this draft, Turner at least POTENTIALLY, gives you some value on the court at both ends. Let's break it down and look at his offensive game first from a scouts point of view.
You have to dream on Turner and project him to what he could be in your mind 3 to 4 years from now, because right now, he isn't nearly as good as his reputation says he is.
On the block in a traditional center's role, Turner has one post move and one post move only, which is a right shoulder fadeaway jumper. He shoots this shot with nice technique and a high finish and follow through, and really good touch. It is a major NBA ready weapon potentially. Any of the older fans on here remember the pet move of James, "Buddha" Edwards? It is a very similar looking move and result as he had back 30 years ago.
Of course, there is a reason why this is the move that Turner prefers right now, which is that he is so weak physically that he can't go through any contact, so he has to jump away from the defense. Turner has no clue and has been poorly coached to this point in how to gain low post position with his feet, and how to hold it. He is very easy to push off the block, even by shorter players who can gain leverage on him by pushing at his lower body and torso. Turner makes himself weak by not getting his knees flexed when he posts up, standing straight up in the post and looking like a baby deer on ice skates.
When the defense can take away his one pet move, at this point in his development, Turner has no real countermoves. He can't go to his left shoulder at all, and he can't dribble in any sort of traffic.....which means that once he is pushed off his spot, that currently he can't take even 1 or 2 dribbles to get where he wants to go. His footwork is about as bad as I have seen a player have in the low post, so whoever drafts him in my view has a major long term project in teaching him how to be a back to the basket low post player.
Other back to the basket problems are aplenty for him. Turner is an awful passer, not because I think he is selfish, but because I think he just struggles at this point to control his limbs so much that he loses track of the defense, especially if he teams "dig" or swipe him in the low post when he has the ball. He also has absolutely no left hand, so he struggles to either pass or finish plays around the rim over size since he brings everything back to his strong hand. He basically has to either take the fadeaway jumper or face up and take a long jumper over the defense.....both of those are inefficient shots by the way.
Basically, what I am saying is this: currently, with his back to the basket offensively, Turner sucks. His footwork is at an elementary level, and his body isn't currently ready for NBA speed and power. Now, can you dream on him, and teach him how to play slowly day by day and potentially eventually have something really good? But for now, he basically is unplayable offensively if he has to play against dudes his own size with length and/or strength.
Yes, I think you can dream on him and project him out, but it is years and years away in my view. But, at just age 19, he has plenty of time, and if he is taught correctly and holds up health wise, by age 23 or so he will be a 4 year veteran who is just entering his prime.....the question is, do you want to wait that long and can you as an organization develop him correctly, and do you even want to?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Turner's jump shot and face up game are potentially much better, though from my scouting eye I think at this point they are overrated.
Turner does have really good shooting mechanics, though they aren't perfect. His release is a little slow, and his arc is WAY WAY too high in my opinion. His shots are the prettiest in the nation when they go in, but he only actually makes 27.4% from downtown in college. I do think that will improve to a 35%-38% eventually in the NBA level potentially, but there are problems even in that!
How will you get him those shots? Can he move well enough to be a "pick and pop" guy? To do that, you have to have agility enough to get space....and Turner needs a little extra room to shoot accurately anyway. Plus, Turner at this point HAS NOTHING HE CAN DO WHEN THE DEFENSE RECOVERS TO HIM IN TIME. Seriously, he can't drive a bad closeout, and he can't pass when pressured....he is a turnover waiting to happen. And, he isn't going to be able to roll hard to the rim after a ballscreen and collect lobs or at least shrink the defense, because he isn't going to be athletic enough to do any of that well enough to scare anyone.
I think Turner will look good in workouts by himself, but I don't see him being a very good player in 5 on 5 situations right now.
Again, you can dream on him if you have vision and patience. Maybe 4 years from now he is improved enough with his body to be flexible enough to get open....maybe he develops a one dribble floater game, and maybe he becomes a player who can actually attack and create against a bad closeout.
But, I don't see a particularly strong weapon here with him as a shooter, particularly because I worry about him becoming over reliant on it, and actually hurting his development in other areas.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We all know that you can win with a defensive minded, rebounding center. So how does Turner project in those areas?
As a rebounder, he certainly puts up decent stats. 6.5 rebounds in college in just 22 minutes is a solid rate, and almost 5 a game for team USA in just 15 minutes a game is solid also....generally, I look for a rebound every 4 minutes of play as a scout, so at least he has some production.
But again, it isn't as good a picture as the raw numbers seem to paint, at least for me.
Turner is a poor rebounder versus teams and players that can match his size and length. Turner is a high effort, box out and hold type of defensive rebounder, and he works as hard as he can to attack the ball in the air. He also has pretty good hands and doesn't lose the ball once he has it. This high effort fundamental style works much of the time.
But.....he misses rebounds against better players, who easily just body him underneath the rim, putting him out of the action as the ball goes over his head. Some dudes are so freaking athletic that they just leap up and reach backwards well and get rebounds like this anyway, but Turner is among the 98% of the human population who can't do that. Turner might lead the league in rebounds that he tries to get but can't, as the ball sails just over his hand and over his head to the guy behind him. He simply lacks strength in his core and balance, and his leg issues show up here because he has a narrower base to gather strength with.
He will be an average defensive rebounder in the NBA due to effort and technique, but until he gets entirely more agile, substantially more strong in his core, and in much better athletic shape he will never be much better than average. Look for his raw numbers to go down a bit most likely.
Again, you still have the dream. 4 years from now he might have entirely different body as he grows and matures and learns how to use leverage...the kid does seem smart and teachable.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What is Turner like defensively?
This is where he can hang his hat potentially earlier in his career, though this isn't all rainbows and unicorns either.
Turner is statistically just a good a rim protector as Karl Anthony Towns, except that Turner got almost all of his blocks against smaller players coming from off the ball. That is a highly effective thing for a player to have, but it isn't the same as having a center who can single handedly block the shots one on one of other back to the basket centers.
Still, any good defensive team needs at least some rim protection, and Turner potentially can provide that. One potential flaw I see however is the same flaw that effects his offensive game inside, which is that TURNER HAS NO LEFT HAND. Turner blocks all shots with his right hand, even if he has to allow the ballhandler past him to for the block that way, or even if he has to allow the offensive guy to get an angle on him so he can turn in such a way to block it from behind or the side.
It is my experience that this cannot be taught or fixed, so he will likely always be a right handed shot blocker only. That means he will likely struggle with foul trouble at the next level some, which is also indicated by what is at this point less than average quickness and maneuverability. At the college level, Turner struggled with the verticality rule, so any team who picks him will have to get that idea taught to him.
Off the ball, I think he ends up projecting as an above average rim protector in time, but not necessarily super special because he will have other defensive flaws that will mitigate it.
On the ball, defending his own man in the low post, I'd be worried about him.
He does have high effort, but he is so weak and so clumsy that I think most slower and smaller dudes will still be able to get position on him, and use their higher skill level to take advantage of his poor footwork and oddly shaped body. Teams ran many seal plays against him, and he struggled to defend them due to his lack of balance and strength. Foul trouble will be a big deal early, but his length will help him against smaller guys at least, so he will be able in time I think to at least hold his own water. But against the top notch post guys, he likely will need double team help some of the time to have a chance. In other words, he will be good against the non elite guys, but not a top NBA all defensive team guy or anything.
Against the ball screen is where you have to worry the most. Texas hid him as much as they could by playing a lot of 2-3 zone, but NBA teams wont have that choice. He will need to play on a team that plays far back and sags (like Indiana does currently), because he won't have any chance to be a guy who can hedge, trap, slide/drag, blitz, "cling", or any other choice.....he is limited in value as a rim protector only in this circumstance.
Still, I like Turner's effort and intelligence defensively. I do think that he ends up being above average in an overall package, I just don't see him as a huge difference maker on that end. Teams will have to account for and plan for him, but they will be able to do that....and he will be a potential liability against the ballscreen, so much so that you might not be able to play him.
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So, what do we have in Myles Turner?
We have an extremely likeable, well spoken, high character intelligent big man with a lot of development to do, and who has severe body and health question marks that may or may not be fixable. We have a guy who clearly isn't ready to play right away, and who will in my view need 2 to 3 years to become playable in an important NBA game. We have a guy who has an overrated jump shot, who shoots free throws well but who won't get fouled that much. We have a guy who has raw tools, but no clue how to play yet from an offensive point of view.
Turner to me has proven how raw he is by being a non factor in many big games Texas played last year. He got his arse kicked by Kentucky, and looked like he didn't belong when he played any sort of well coached or decent sized opponent next year. He will look better in workouts than he did on tape, and I am sure he will interview well. I actually like his potential, but I just also know what a long process it will be to get him to that point, and I don't think he is good enough to wait on, especially in this above average draft. I'd pick him ahead of some guys I have profiled, but not enough.
I think the Pacers will pass on draft night in regards to Turner, and he certainly wouldn't be one of my top choices either. However, his potential, if he reaches it, is higher than some others......I think he has a medium high ceiling but a very low floor.
Pacers will pass I think, and I think there will be better options on the board as well.
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Comps are difficult in some ways, because there never really has been a rim protecting, jump shooting combination like Turner could potential be if he hits the absolute highest ceiling that he can be.
In the end, I see a player with a shorter career, who also takes a while to develop....maybe a 5-7 year career with some higher end play in the middle, marred by the potential of injuries derailing him.
So in the end, I am going with.....
NBA comparable: Sam Bowie
I could be wrong about Turner as well of course. get him on the right team who is patient and can help him develop slowly, and he can be something..... Andrew Bynum landed in a perfect place for him in Los Angeles a few years ago, who is another player that I can see Turner being like.
In this case, I think his most likely landing spots (and the best for him) are Boston at #16 (or in a trade up scenario), Oklahoma City at #14 (Serge Ibaka is ideal to play next to him eventually, and they can bring him along slowly there), or Phoenix at #13 (best training staff to handle his physical issues).
In the end, I suspect he ends up a Boston Celtic on draft night, somehow, someway.
Of course, my opinions are just my own, and feel free to disagree if you so wish. We know Turner is working hard in Las Vegas with the Impact gym and training staff, and we know that he has high character and a strong work ethic. He is very much a long term pick with not much short term impact, but he does have long term value if you can harness it and bring it out of him.
I just don't see Indiana as the place that will end up happening....but I have been wrong before.
Tbird
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