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Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

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  • #1

    Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

    With the NBA finals reaching a fever pitch with tonight's game 5 on the docket, the draft profiles roll on today with an in-depth look at the local Indianapolis native via Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Canada, Trey Lyles.

    Lyles has an interesting basketball and family background to learn about. Born to a Croatian mother who had immigrated to Canada, and a professional basketball player playing in the World Basketball League, Lyles lived in Canada until age 6, when his father moved them to the U.S. and settled on Indianapolis's south side near Camby, and not far from Indianapolis airport.

    Trey was and is a somewhat different kid, and not always your typical athlete. He by all accounts is a somewhat quiet and unassuming kid, who would rather blend in than stand out.....though his abilities and work ethic he has shown through the years have made that hard to do on the basketball floor. Trey was a 4.0 honors student in High School, where though he lived near Decatur High School, he actually attended Indianapolis Arsenal Tech, where his father (Tom) was an assistant coach and his mother (Jasenka) kept the scorebook. Eventually, he led Jason Delaney's Tech Titans to the state championship in 2014, the first IPS public school to achieve that in quite a long time.

    Like a few of the other players I have profiled, Trey was trained by his father at a young age to be a high quality basketball player. Tom's basketball career in some ways was interesting to attempt to research, because there are conflicting reports all over the place about how good he was and where he played. It has been reported that Tom played overseas, had a brief cup of coffee for the Pacers, played in the CBA, and played for the WBL.....but I could only confirm for sure the WBL part of the story.

    Nevertheless, Tom taught his son early on the value of a strong work ethic. They would rise at 5AM even at an early age to go train by 6AM at the old Armstrong Pavilion, just off the southside's Kentucky Avenue, and they started these kind of workouts when Trey was only 10 years old, so the draft night 10 days from now will be the culmination for their family of a long held dream. Using drills Tom had learned in his playing days, he had young Trey wear a weighted vest while dribbling, had him dribble in the dark, and several other creative drills that instilled a passion for the game for Trey....and one that his father admits himself that he never had.

    His father's passion in life for himself wasn't basketball...basketball was a means to an end. Tom's passion was and is music, and in fact Tom, who goes by the stage name of "T" Lyles, is apparently quite an accomplished rhythm and blues/pop rock musician, who taught himself to play the guitar, drums, and keyboard. He has several songs available if you search for them, and you can hear the talent and passion in them even if (like me) his songs aren't exactly your cup of tea.

    "T" Lyles has been a little controversial in our area, with some of the comments and issues that arose in the recruitment of the high school Trey Lyles a few years ago. Trey originally committed to Indiana, then (like many young men do) changed his mind and backed out, and eventually chose Kentucky over Duke, Louisville, and Butler.

    Hard feelings arose in both Louisville and Bloomington. Rick Pitino and Tom Lyles had a brief public spat over what their conversations in recruiting had entailed, which you can find on the internet if you search for it. And in Bloomington, Coach Crean and the Lyles family had some sort of falling out which has never really been explained in detail, but it led to Crean telling Lyles he wasn't welcome at IU even if he changed his mind and wanted to go there eventually, and which led to Tom Lyles to actually make fun of Coach Crean in a song he released last fall called "BBN", or "Big Blue Nation".

    His mother Jasenka also told some of the press in Lexington about some of the vitriol Trey had to deal with when he committed to Kentucky over Indiana on social media, and some of the awful things Indiana fans would yell at her son during high school games his senior year.

    I write all of this not because I or the Pacers will particularly care about any of this local and college gossip, but because I want to point out that this is not going to be your typical "hometown boy stays home" story necessarily if we actually end up with him.

    Trey by all means was successful at Kentucky, and indeed has become yet another one and done player for John Calipari. Unlike many of the other one and done players though throughout the country, Lyles did continue to take his classes at UK during the spring semester and finished with a 3.3 GPA.

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    Trey has a prototypical NBA power forwards measurements. At the combine, Lyles measured in with a height of 6'10 1/4, with a wingspan of 7'1 1/2. He has a frame that could likely either gain additional weight or stand to be sculpted and thinned a bit, depending on the developmental track his new team puts him on, but for now he weighs in as 241lbs. Born on November 5, 1995, Trey Lyles will turn 20 just as next season is getting underway.

    So what kind of player is the 2014 Indiana Mr. Basketball? Let's put his game under examination.

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    Like many of the UK players this year, his numbers were limited by their deep depth and platoon system employed by John Calipari. Lyles averaged 8.7PPG, and a solid 5.2 RPG in just 23 minutes per game. He played almost exclusively at the "3" position at UK, paired with 2 bigger guys almost all of the time. As an NBA player though, he likely will be downsized to a PF exclusively, surrounded by 3 smaller players and one bigger center.

    Having dual citizenship, he was on the U.S. National team track for a while, until switching to playing for team Canada in order to get more playing time. So at least he has additional tape and experience on the floor playing the 4 spot that NBA scouts and teams can look at with him playing his natural position, if they choose to do so.

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    Let's talk offense first.

    Lyles and the team that drafts him will need to share a common vision of what exactly kind of offensive player they want him to become. At this point, I think he isn't particularly NBA ready at any exact one offensive skill, but I think he can be coached up with his raw tools to have certain strengths......it just depends on what team that gets him wants those to be.

    For now, he is just a hodgepodge of potential who lacks any one strong asset to his game. He is mediocre to good at most things, but not good enough at anything.

    If teams want him to become a stretch 4, they will need to sculpt his body, make him leaner and have much better balance, and attempt to expand his jump shot range. At this point, even the college 3 point line was not a factor in his game favorably, as he made only 4 I think all year and shot a horrific 13% from deep. Yet, he has potential as a deep shooter if that is what you want him to focus on I think. From the line he shows potential as a shooter, knocking in free throws at 73.5%....and FT's are often an indicator that leads to 3 point potential at the next level.

    For now, he has a sort of herky jerky release at the top that doesn't look natural at all, which becomes worse and worse the further back he shoots it from. His accurate range currently is about 15 feet or so, which is great, except the analytic teams will hate that his best jump shot is also the most inefficient shot in their minds.

    He has a decent ability to drive the ball against slower defenders who have to close out to him or who are sloppy in their defensive footwork. But he can't get by quality defense and he struggles to shoot over players who share his length. Lyles is a good leaper, but really only if he has a runway to take off from and a step or 2 to leap....those things don't help him if he has to bounce the ball first.

    As a driver, he is very much a "left hand, right foot" driver, who prefers to go left and use a crossover step with his right foot. So many scouts and fans can look at a player and think he prefers a certain hand or direction, but in reality, it is because they are just so much more comfortable with one foot or the other. As an aside, some coaches in college and the NBA try and fix that, so their players learn to catch and face and turn using either foot as a pivot no matter where they are on the floor. Other coaches believe you should always teach a player to turn ONE certain way depending on what side of the floor they are on, and still others just simply tell their players to catch however they are comfortable no matter what, and don't attempt to change/fix anything.

    UK falls in the last category. Therefore, Lyles almost always in any move will eventually anchor his left foot and step with his right foot, and 85% of the time or so he will cross that foot over and go to his left.....which makes him somewhat easier to guard in my view as a perimeter player.

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    Some teams I think will opt to go that route though and put him as a face up guy, slim him down, quicken him up and stretch him to play offensively outside.

    However, I would go the other way. I'd likely try and strengthen him and add some weight to him. To me, he is more of a mid range to low post banger, a guy who can play as a brute yet has better than average tough around the painted area, key, and short corners.

    Lyles couldn't show it at UK, but in high school and the AAU circuit (I saw him play ALOT each summer as he grew up), Lyles showed advanced tough and footwork around the blocks. Trey wasn't quick, but he was "nimble" and efficient in his footwork before the catch, and he read the defense well with his back to the basket. While definitely a below the rim finisher in traffic, he still shot the ball at a high percentage by using angles and deception and touch that was advanced. At UK, the lain was clogged by their plethora of 7'0 studs, forcing Lyles to play the perimeter mostly, but I think he can be an offensively oriented back to the basket 4 man.....especially if you had some power and muscle to his body as he gets older.

    As a post guy, I think he can develop a jump hook with either hand (he already uses his left hand well in general), a decent drop step going to either shoulder, and I think in time he will learn how to fade a bit on his turnaround jumper to offset the lower amount of lift he will get in traffic. As a young player, he will also be able to turn and face some of the NBA 2nd string defenders and be able to drive them I think, at least until his athleticism fades somewhere in the middle of his career.

    I would also play him nearer the rim because it helps his other strength as a player, which is the offensive glass. Lyles has a warm motor in this area, and particularly great hands and a soft touch after he gets his paws on the ball. Trey Lyles is one of the best players in this draft at FINISHING a basket after he gets the offensive rebound, as he is long and has much better than average tough.

    But, EVEN THAT can be a detriment, because many of the more advanced saber-metric teams will not WANT him to go back with up with a put back....they instead will have numbers that tell them that it is on the whole more efficient to kick the ball back out after an offensive rebound and try and get a 3 point shot off, or perhaps attack a bad closeout after you kick it out. For the record, I totally am in TOTAL agreement with this philosophy, although it is very slow to be catching on in the grassroots parts of the game. I sit and totally cringe when our Pacers work hard to get a rebound, then instead of throwing it out, we instead heave up an off balance 2 point shot in traffic and miss again, negating the advantage we just gained by getting the rebound in the first place.

    If you are one of those people who yells "put it right back up!" to your kids or players or as a fan during games you are attending, stop that!! The best percentage play IS the kickout to a 3 point shooter facing the rim....the numbers clearly and unequivocally back that up.

    Because of his strengths are mainly considered inefficient, my guess is that the more number crunching teams will not rate Lyles as highly as the more old fashioned thinking teams will.

    As it is right now today , he doesn't have any particular high level NBA offensive strength though, which is a major red flag for me, especially if you are hoping that he will make an early or impactful impression on the game. Lyles is going to have to develop SOMETHING he is better than average at in order to make a real difference to anyone's roster eventually.

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    What is Lyles like on the defensive end?

    He is very much a tweener, and I think he will have trouble guarding many types of players but, like his offensive game is, it will be dependent on what type of body form a team ends up making him into.

    He isn't a perimeter defender, not now and I doubt ever. His stance is a little bent over, and he has a tough time sliding with his but staying down low enough. Quite frankly, his poor defensive effort was evident all through high school, but at that level he was so offensively dominant it didn't matter. And last year, he was surrounded by 2 of the best back end defenders in the country and solid players all around him, so he could hide for the most part. But smart teams attacked him when they could, and made Kentucky pay the price for his shortcomings if they had NBA talent to play back at him. Sam Dekker burned him quite a few times, as did Harrell from Louisville.

    In my case, since I would HELP his offensive game by bulking him up some and playing him near the block, I would even be hurting his D ability even more by making that choice. That is why he will be such a "Rubik's Cube" for a ream to figure out how to best develop him.

    Even now Lyles doesn't work very hard to recover when he is beaten, and he makes little to know impact as a shot blocker or in getting deflections. He plays with his hands down, and they are not particularly active. Defensively he will be, in my view, too weak to play against starting 4 men early on, but you can maybe get away with him playing against some reserves until you can get him better....IF you can get him better.

    I would bulk him up, make him as tough as possible, and let him try and guard some of the more limited 5 men in the league after he gets stronger, so I could keep him hidden as much as possible. Of course, then his lack of being able to block shots and protect the rim comes into play, so he is limited no matter what you do.

    Still, he looks like an average at best defender to me in his prime, and will likely be a minus defender early and late in his career. Any value you get from Lyles is going to have to be at the offensive end, in my view....and as a rebounder.

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    So, what do we have in Trey Lyles?

    I think we have a raw piece of clay, a smart and soft spoken kid with high intelligence and BB IQ. A kid who likes to listen to jazz music before games to calm himself, and who likes to do jigsaw puzzles to relax.....a different cat. I think we have a kid with really good hands and a nice touch around the rim, that in my view I would try and make bigger and tougher, and a kid who for now can run the floor as a rim runner or hit the mid range jumper occasionally, but just to an average level. I also think we have a minus defender no matter where you hide him, someone who has been a bad defender his entire life and who likely will always be no matter how you change his body.

    In the end, I think he has some decent offensive potential, and I think that lets him stick in the league for a long while if he wants to. But for me, his offensive game won't be anywhere near good enough to offset his lack of D....he seems like a very mediocre, backup 4 man to me, and a player who's type I see him as dying out a little bit as the game gets faster and more skilled. Other than posting him up and slowing the game down, it is hard for me to see how he makes a major impact offensively at all, unless he improves in a drastic way at some aspect of the game. His lack of any particular standout skill ruins him as a prospect in my scouting vernacular, particularly picking at pick #11. I do think he has a long career in the NBA as a very pedestrian back up player though, so it could be worse.

    My recommendation is that Indiana should, and will, pass on Trey Lyles at #11.

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    Lyles is a smart, thoughtful player that teams at least can dream on, being just 19 still. He isn't a lost cause, and he has the ability to prove me wrong in the exact right circumstances, and if he is developed in the opposite way I described and becomes a quicker, 3 point shooting and driving 4 man with length. Just because I don't view his body and game to be able to become that, doesn't mean I am correct. His floor is better if you develop him as a low post brute, but his CEILING is higher if you try and make him a versatile face up 4.

    While obviously I believe in my own reports, I also believe that I have slightly less confidence in how I think Lyles will turn out that I usually do. If any player I profile puts egg on my face from this draft, Lyles would be my best guess on who that is 5 years from now.

    Despite the chatter from New York, I would be flabbergasted (happy, but shocked) if he ends up there at #4 or in some trade down. Lyles would be interesting to be selected at #8 in Detroit, and if he goes there then you know that Stan Van Gundy sees him as a space the floor attacking 4 man eventually. Stan would obviously see a player there that I myself don't see....but it's possible.

    If he doesn't go at #8 (and I don't think he will), I think he falls out of the lottery. Atlanta would be an interesting developmental fit for him at #15, as they no doubt would develop him as a perimeter (mostly) player with some flexibility more than the low post banger I see him being 5 years from now. But I actually think he gets past them too, and ends up with the Milwaukee Bucks and pick #17.

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    Who his comparable is will vary depending on what type of 4 man teams try and develop him into body and style wise. If you are WAY WAY higher on him, you likely dream of somebody like Paul Millsap.....if you agree with me that he is more of a banger, but yet YOU STILL LIKE HIM way more than I do, you might talk yourself into Carlos Boozer, which is a common but lazy comp I see a lot online.

    To me though, I think he is mediocre at best and a couple of levels down from those guys. Here are mine:

    NBA comparables: Drew Gooden/Brandon Bass

    As always, the above is the opinion of the writer only. Feel free to disagree, and share that disagreement with the rest of us.

    Tbird
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

    No real comment on this other than to reiterate how much I love these analyses. Are you going to be able to get to the PD Gathering? You would be INVALUABLE in the post-draft discussions.
    BillS

    A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
    Or throw in a first-round pick and flip it for a max-level point guard...

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

      Unclear yet on my plans for that day, but yes I am intending to come.

      These things are a lot of work, but I love doing them...it keeps me involved in basketball now that I am not coaching anywhere.

      I'll have at least 2 more, and maybe 3, complete in-depth profiles done by next Sunday I hope. As usual, I'll do a quick write up on some other players I have seen, sort of an "empty the notebook" type of thing also. Sometime around Tuesday the 23rd Ill put up my own personal "big board", and I may try and do some sort of live, "Q and A" thing on Wednesday the 24th, I haven't decided how that might work yet.

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      • #4
        Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

        I think that Drew Gooden is A GREAT comparison! It's reassuring that you see a lot of the same things in Lyles.

        Thanks again for these reviews. They are definitely a PD tradition that I and Everyone else looks forward to! We appreciate the time and effort that you place into these reviews

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        • #5
          Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

          Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
          Unclear yet on my plans for that day, but yes I am intending to come.

          These things are a lot of work, but I love doing them...it keeps me involved in basketball now that I am not coaching anywhere.

          I'll have at least 2 more, and maybe 3, complete in-depth profiles done by next Sunday I hope. As usual, I'll do a quick write up on some other players I have seen, sort of an "empty the notebook" type of thing also. Sometime around Tuesday the 23rd Ill put up my own personal "big board", and I may try and do some sort of live, "Q and A" thing on Wednesday the 24th, I haven't decided how that might work yet.
          Thanks, Tbird. Let me reiterate my request to also include (1) the player you'd be most enthusiastic about trading up for (say, 5 spots), and (2) a few players you'd be excited to select late in the first round.


          "He’s no shrinking violet when it comes to that kind of stuff."

          - Rick Carlisle on how Kevin Pritchard responds to needed roster changes.

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          • #6
            Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

            Lyles would be interesting. It would seem to me that he is in the mold of a guy Bird would be shooting for.

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            • #7
              Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

              Right now he's just kind of a "bleh" pick to me. I think he has potential but I want to know how strong his work ethic is before I form an honest opinion about him as a prospect. But since it seems that will be hard to find out for sure, he'll remain an unknown to me.

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              • #8
                Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

                Man, 9 players in and you haven't got to either of my top two picks. Are you going to get to Portis and/or Payne? Please?

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                • #9
                  Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

                  Originally posted by kent beckley View Post
                  Man, 9 players in and you haven't got to either of my top two picks. Are you going to get to Portis and/or Payne? Please?
                  Patience, Grasshopper!

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                  • #10
                    Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

                    Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
                    Patience, Grasshopper!
                    This looks promising.

                    I stated my opinion on Lyles when he and Portis competed in the workout the other day. I am not sure what Lyles does better than Portis. I am not a fan of Lyles. He seems to me to be a guy that is 50-50 at best to get a second contract in the NBA.

                    With Portis and Lyles competing the other day, then Frank and Turner competing today, just bring the winners of the two workouts, which seems to be Portis and Turner, in for a second workout. Winner is the pick. We are having our own tournament, lol.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

                      Back when he was being recruited, there was some scuttle that his dad was trying to get schools to hire him as an assistant in order to get Trey. This supposedly was what honked off IU and U of L staffs.

                      I never heard anything that made me really sure about that though. Just saying the stories were there.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

                        thanks

                        hoping for write-ups on Turner, Portis and Payne, since those are the players most linked to the Pacers' pick that you haven't already profiled
                        "I'll always be a part of Donnie Walsh."
                        -Ron Artest, Denver Post, 12.28.05

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                        • #13
                          Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

                          I'm curious about the player you love, who you'd trade to get him, and who his comparable is.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

                            Originally posted by imawhat View Post
                            I'm curious about the player you love, who you'd trade to get him, and who his comparable is.
                            Yeah. Seems the only player he's reviewed that sounded pretty positive was Stanley Jonhnson and Booker.

                            Tbird - After your draft analysis of players, would you mind giving us a quick rundown of your top favorite and least favorite players of the draft? 1st and 2nd round?
                            Last edited by Sparhawk; 06-14-2015, 10:51 PM.
                            First time in a long time, I've been happy with the team that was constructed, and now they struggle. I blame the coach.

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #9: Trey Lyles

                              Originally posted by imawhat View Post
                              I'm curious about the player you love, who you'd trade to get him, and who his comparable is.
                              My guess is Justice Winslow, at least I want it to be since I have a really high opinion of him lol. I'm really looking forward to tbird's opinion of the whole draft eventually.
                              "It's just unfortunate that we've been penalized so much this year and nothing has happened to the Pistons, the Palace or the city of Detroit," he said. "It's almost like it's always our fault. The league knows it. They should be ashamed of themselves to let the security be as lax as it is around here."

                              ----------------- Reggie Miller

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