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Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

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  • #1

    Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

    22 days until draft night 2015, and today we take our minds to Lawrence Kansas, to take an in-depth look at Jayhawk freshman Kelly Oubre Jr. Previously this year I have written profiles of Kevon Looney, Jerian Grant, Tyus Jones, and Frank Kaminsky......this will be the 5th in this years scouting reports I file on PD.

    By now, many of you know the background on Oubre, for those of you who don't, I'll recap it for you. Oubre lived in the Uptown neighborhood of New Orleans, in what is known as the 3rd Ward....a tough place to grow up. Hurricane Katrina pounded the city during his elementary school days, and his single father made the difficult choice to abandon the city with his son to head west into Texas. This decision set Oubre on his current path to basketball, because prior to age 9 he hadn't yet picked up the game. His father settled eventually into a suburb of Houston called Richmond, leaving the rest of their family behind in the devastated city.

    Oubre remained emotionally close to his siblings (one brother and one sister), and to his mother, who by the time of the hurricane was no longer with Oubre Sr. On draft night the entire family will be reunited in New Your city, to watch the culmination of what must be described as a near miracle as Kelly Jr. starts his NBA dream. Surviving near homelessness, poverty, and the devastation of yet another family broken by Katrina, Oubre's smile 3 weeks from now will likely be brighter than anyone else who shakes Adam Silver's hand that night.

    An inspiring story for sure is Kelly Oubre, Jr. But putting sentimentality aside, today I take a deep dive into his positive and negative attributes on the floor as a potential Pacers draft pick.

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    Kelly Oubre measured at the NBA combine at 6'6 3/4, with a wingspan of a whopping 7'2 1/4. Oubre weighed in at Chicago at 203lbs, skinny but with a frame that has plenty of room to fill out as he gets older and more acclimated to the NBA modern diet and strength training he is now exposed to. Born in New Orleans on December 9, 1995, Oubre will start the season at only 19 years old. A star in the southeast Texas high school scene, his father sent him to the basketball prep factory/meat market that is Findlay Prep in Henderson Nevada his senior year, which is basically just a basketball only school that travels the country, and has served as a way station for several high level college and pro players in the recent past.

    Someday I may rant a bit about places like Findlay Prep, but for these purposes, it enabled Oubre to essentially have a near college basketball experience while still of high school age, traveling the country playing the best competition and living away from home. His life experiences both growing up and at Findlay make him likely one of the more emotionally ready and mature freshmen in this class.

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    Oubre put up very pedestrian counting stats in Lawrence. He played just 21 minutes a night for the Jayhawks, averaging 9.3 pts per game (on less than 7 shots per night) and 5 rebounds a game. He shot a respectable 35.8% from downtown, and 71.8% from the foul line. Still, as these stats no doubt show, if you draft Oubre, you are dreaming about what he MIGHT BE someday, and WHAT HE MIGHT DO in the future, not what he has accomplished to date.....he is a major projection and leap of faith that someone will take 3 weeks from now, because his body of work wouldn't show normally a first round pick.....he is "potential" only at this point.

    As a current basketball player, Oubre quite frankly leaves a lot to be desired.

    First issue would clearly for me be his lack of ballhandling skill. Oubre is one of the worst ballhandling wings going into the draft that I have ever profiled. Left handed, Oubre struggles with anything involving his right hand or going to his right. He is very much a one way street off the dribble, easy to guard for most defenders because he is so uncomfortable with his right hand.

    His dribble is high with either hand, and he bounces the ball at his side rather than in front of him even if he has clear sailing ahead of him in the open court. The common coaching parlance is "the ball slows him down"....but in Oubre's case it almost takes him to a standstill. He is a very fast runner, but he is way below average with the ball in his hands.

    Maybe he will learn it, but at this point he is extremely behind the typical NBA wing in any ability to put the ball on the floor and go by the defense. He is a straight line, downhill driver only, with very little ability to stop before he gets to either a dunk or a turnover. Oubre lacks even the proficient basic ballhandling moves most kids of his talent master at a much younger age....he comes almost to a complete stop when trying a behind the back move, and he drops his head to stare at the ball whenever he attempts to change directions with the ball in his hands. Combination moves (making 2-3 moves back to back to beat good defense 1 on 1) are only a pipe dream at this point, because he lacks even 1 real effective go to move off the dribble to get by people. His crossover is bad, he has no "in/out" dribble that I have seen, his behind/back move slows him down, and his between/legs move is so slow that the defense can easily counter it.

    His best move in a vacuum is probably a spin dribble, but good teams scouted that and turned him over, because he drops his head when he makes it and loses track of where the help is. Add to that that he almost always comes back to his left hand when driving right, and Oubre is amazingly easy to guard off the dribble.

    Lastly on this point, you'd think he might have at least a 1 dribble pullup game with his athleticism, but his fundamentals are so bad when executing this move that it renders his other attributes worthless. It does you no good to be able to stop suddenly and rise above everyone to shoot if you never actually make the shot! Oubre can solve this exact problem by being taught to really "smash" that last dribble, but right now he baby taps that last bounce, which really messes up the timing and rhythm of the pullup.

    He clearly is an almost totally non ballhandling wing at this point.

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    That lack of ballhandling skill leads to other issues offensively.

    Oubre cannot handle the ball well, which means to just execute a basic straight line drive or use any type of change of direction move, he has to slow down and stare at the ball. That of course means that he loses track of the defense, meaning that Oubre misses open teammates quite often. Many people probably think Oubre looks selfish, but I didn't have that impression for the most part....I just saw a guy who was so limited that being able to process the game that quickly was hard for him at this point.

    He is also so extremely lefthanded at this point that even passing with his off hand is difficult for him. Lots of bad passes on tape that he either threw away or never even attempted because he can't use that half of his body. Basic things like using a crossover step around the defense and making a pedestrian "A to B" type of pass with his right hand was hard for Oubre. One of his natural strengths should be, with his size, as a post feeder.....but right now he would rate poor even at that.

    He really struggled on tape with tough physical defense and in traffic. Oubre can be crowded, and when he is he stands up and fights the pressure rather than just using it against itself. Oubre quite frankly in the NBA at this point is a turnover waiting to happen.

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    So, can Oubre shoot?

    His numbers are relatively good I admit. However, I don't like his form, and many of his other liabilities can be tied into his shot form.

    I usually like lefthanded players in general and have to fight my own bias toward those guys. In this case though, Oubre really shoots it with some fundamental flaws that all have to be fixed at some point by whoever picks him.

    First, his lower body and upper body are not lined up with each other well enough. Clearly, I am a guy who does believe that your lower body should be turned slightly and not lined up straight like almost all of us were taught.....being a little twisted down below with your feet is a GOOD THING, and I think modern shooting science is teaching that, because it enables your elbow to line up exactly at the aiming point.

    But in Oubre's case, he is turned too much I think, making him shooting a bit against his body. I'd want to study that intently if I were a team or a person with all of the technology available on him before I picked him. I wouldn't be TOO worried about this exact flaw, because I do think you can fix that with enough time, reps, and effort/expertise.

    I also don't like his hand position, which seems a bit off to me, and his wrist also gets too flat.....he looks like a waiter carrying a tray full of drinks to your table on Saturday night. I think THAT issue then leads to him not using his "big 2" fingers enough on his shot, and getting his pinky finger involved in the shot. That in turn leads to an inconsistent spin and direction as the comes off the hand, making him miss shots left and right more than short/long.

    And his stance is very very narrow, which means when he flexes his knees to shoot he sometimes doesn't go straight down, "leaning" in various ways. That also hurts his ability to shot fake a drive, because with feet that narrow he has to "split them" to take off, which of course is traveling (or is supposed to be anyway).

    His percentages are good from 3 in college for one big reason I believe: his shot fundamentals GOT MUCH BETTER when he HAD ROOM TO "STEP" INTO HIS SHOT. He got this shot off wide open kickouts and in transition for Kansas, and while I don't have the numbers, I bet he shot 40% or better when he "stepped in" to his shot with his left foot, vs below 20% when he didn't do that. Larry Bird and Rick Carlisle once upon a time helped fix Mark Jackson's 3 point shot by only letting him take 3's if he backed up a step and came forward to shoot them.....but that is difficult to do for a wing player who will be expected to be more of a threat off the catch than a typical old school NBA point guard.

    So, I think he will be a pretty good shooter potentially in time, but it will take many years of time and effort to groove that shot well and to fix all the issues with it. In the near term, he will shoot a high percentage from deep if he can step into the shot, but he will be unable to do that very often because teams will crowd him, knowing he can't dribble yet.

    It will be interesting to me to see what skills the teams developmental staff chooses to try and fix first, his shooting or ballhandling, because neither is good enough to play at this time in my opinion.

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    Right now, Oubre doesn't really know how to play. But if you do like him, it has to be because of his defensive potential, because of his length and athleticism.

    That 7'2 wingspan is a potential major weapon on D. Plus, when engaged, Oubre is a great stance and slide guy, as he really can get in someone's grill and stay there for possessions. Unfortunately, he doesn't maintain that kind of concentration from possession to possession, or even from pass to pass. I saw a lot of possessions for Kansas where he locked a guy up big time early in a play, but then 10 seconds later when his man got a return pass, Oubre had lost his concentration and fell asleep.

    As an on ball defender is where he excels at this point. He can get in a very deep crouch and move either way. He has the length to be able to play off an extra half step and still be able to contest a shot, and Oubre does a great job of getting 2 hands high on shots he contests on the perimeter. He closes out better than most, with great balance and technique, usually leading to someone having to take a tough jump shot. If anything, he might contest a half step short sometimes, preferring to force the jumper instead of the drive, but that isn't a big deal and in fact is preferable depending on the scheme you are playing and the ID of the shooter.

    Away from the ball like many young guys he is a ball watcher, and will lose track of people in sophisticated screening action. That usually comes with experience, so I wouldn't demerit him too much for that unless he continues to be a space cadet at the next level. In some cases, I think he will be a weapon in terms of wing denial, if he lands on a team that contests and pressures the wings instead of the more conservative pack-line type of style.

    He will struggle in the post due to a lack of strength, but I think his length will mitigate that mostly to start, and I think he will end up being much stronger than he is currently anyway. Add to that that I highly doubt he gets matched up with guys who post anyway.....to me he profiles as a wing who guards smaller scoring threats outside the three point line.

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    His length makes him a potential rebounding weapon from the wing, but in general I think his value on the glass will be limited to the offensive glass, and that wont factor in unless he plays on a team that prioritizes that aspect of the game. Some teams punt that aspect in favor of getting back in transition defense, so it remains to be seen for Oubre if this attribute helps his stock or not. It just depends on where he ends up.

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    So, what do we have in Kelly Oubre Jr.?

    I think we have a player who should have stayed in school probably, but who I also know has financial reasons for wanting to go out as soon as he can. We also have a well spoken kid from a tough background who has shown good personality traits through the years with his time at Findlay. I have read that he didn't show good body language at times at Kansas, but on the tape I didn't really see it. Of course, that is the type of thing you see in person much easier than you can on tape.

    I think Oubre is clearly a project, and lacks at this time the fundamentals it takes to be an effective NBA player. Having said that, his defensive potential is high, and none of his offensive issues are completely fatal, but they will take a lot, and I mean a lot, or time to be developed. Oubre is a guy who I don't think helps any good team for 2-3 years, and will need serious good coaching and development to reach his ceiling. That ceiling to me is as a backup wing defender specialist, who can run the floor and HOPEFULLY develop into a "3 and D" type, though he isn't anywhere close to that yet.

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    Does he fit for Indiana and pick #11?

    To me, any wing we take has to fit at least some of these criteria:

    1. Can he fit with Paul by taking some of the top defensive responsibilities away from him? In other words, can he guard the other teams best player so Paul doesn't have to?

    2. Can he handle the ball well, so Paul doesn't have to concentrate and use energy doing that?

    3. Can he take some of the scoring load off Paul, do Paul can concentrate on the defensive end if necessary?

    The answers are : 1) maybe someday in the future, 2) Hell No , 3) Hell No.

    Those aren't good enough answers for me, and I worry that Oubre's weaknesses are so bad that he will never make it to his second contract. In no circumstances would I take Oubre, and I don't think Indiana will either.

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    The single best place Oubre could slide to on draft night would be to San Antonio at pick #26. Chip Engalland could fix his shot problems, and in their culture and with it being close to his family, it would be an ideal fit that would maximize his chances to make it to that 2nd deal. I do think Oubre will slide on draft night if he gets past the Miami Heat at #10. If the Heat don't take him (and I doubt they do), then I think he will fall all the way to OKC at #14 If they don't take him, then.......I'll guess that he ends up the draft's biggest slide, and ends up in Portland at pick #23.

    NBA comparable: Thabo Safalosha

    As always, the above is just my opinion. Arguments and disagreements are welcome and encouraged.

    Tbird
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

    Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
    Does he fit for Indiana and pick #11?

    To me, any wing we take has to fit at least some of these criteria:

    1. Can he fit with Paul by taking some of the top defensive responsibilities away from him? In other words, can he guard the other teams best player so Paul doesn't have to?

    2. Can he handle the ball well, so Paul doesn't have to concentrate and use energy doing that?

    3. Can he take some of the scoring load off Paul, do Paul can concentrate on the defensive end if necessary?

    The answers are : 1) maybe someday in the future, 2) Hell No , 3) Hell No.
    If we draft a wing I want Johnson or Booker... each of those fit two of your three criteria... as for Oubre, I agree with you that he wouldn't fit us well and we won't draft him

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    • #3
      Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

      Not what I was expecting obviously. That definitely sours my opinion on Oubre pretty quick...

      I too noticed how he shot much better when he stepped into his shot. I like his shooting mechanics.. when he steps into it. He always has to be back and takes a big step forward with his left foot and it's a good looking shot, but every other circumstance his shot is pretty awful-

      By the way, here is why I thought he could be a 3 and D guy pretty easily- Since he has to step into his shot, I thought that meant his biggest problem was footwork- In other words if he can be taught to simply set his feet and shoot immediately with confidence, than that would quickly make him be able (maybe after a full season plus an offseason) begin to be a reliable off the ball shooter. Meaning he could come off a screen and plant his feet, versus always having to step into the shot. My mistake, clearly, is thinking that was a simply a simple footwork problem instead of a fundamental flaw in the way he shoots. I don't understand completely what makes guys great shooters tho...

      His ball handling is clearly terrible- I never doubted that, he reminds me a lot of Tayshawn Prince. My thinking tho- is that the Pacers absolutely do NOT need another ball handler with PG. That's why I never thought that would be an issue. This is probably a difference in opinion on how an offense needs to run, but I'm basically deathly afraid of anyone starting for the Pacers with Hill and PG who KNOWS how to dribble. I'd rather they don't even have the skill- So Vogel is forced to keep the ball in Hill's hand primarily, and PG's hand secondarily, because I think that will produce a much more effective offense. My problems with the Pacers offense in general, is always been to many ball handlers.

      I could clearly be wrong about that, but the Pacers best offense of the last 4 years was the year they had Hill/PG/Danny/West/Roy.. That offense had only one guy who could dribble the ball, and they performed well. To me spreading the court, is way more important than having 3 guys take turns dribbiling. Ball handling in general isn't as important these days- I think you always need at least one dynamic player that can get to the rim, but as long as you have one, that's all you need. Pass! Don't dribble!

      Anywho - Looks like I'm back on the Kaminsky band wagon.
      Last edited by mattie; 06-03-2015, 04:30 PM.

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      • #4
        Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

        Just draft Timothe Luwawu in the 2nd round before drafting Oubre.
        First time in a long time, I've been happy with the team that was constructed, and now they struggle. I blame the coach.

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        • #5
          Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

          Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
          The single best place Oubre could slide to on draft night would be to San Antonio at pick #26. Chip Engalland could fix his shot problems, and in their culture and with it being close to his family, it would be an ideal fit that would maximize his chances to make it to that 2nd deal. I do think Oubre will slide on draft night if he gets past the Miami Heat at #10. If the Heat don't take him (and I doubt they do), then I think he will fall all the way to OKC at #14 If they don't take him, then.......I'll guess that he ends up the draft's biggest slide, and ends up in Portland at pick #23.
          Assuming OKC does not have Payne available at #14 means he has a high grade and will not get past #11.

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          • #6
            Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

            People changing the way they feel about a player because of one persons opinion is funny. All in for Oubre @ 11.

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            • #7
              Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

              Originally posted by I Love P View Post
              People changing the way they feel about a player because of one persons opinion is funny. All in for Oubre @ 11.
              Tbird sure knows a hell of a lot more than him than I do, I trust his analysis

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              • #8
                Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

                Originally posted by PacerPenguins View Post
                Tbird sure knows a hell of a lot more than him than I do, I trust his analysis
                With all due respect to thunderbird1245 and I'm sure he would agree here... we should trust Larry Bird's thoughts a whole hell of a lot more than we do thunderbird' thoughts. He even says as much in his closing sentence of each post. Just because he says it doesn't mean it's the gospel, although his time and effort is much appreciated by hopefully at least most of the PD readers which I assume was the point I Love P was making in his reply.

                If you have a Top 5, you have a Top 5. One man's opinion shouldn't move your needle that much. If that was the case, we'd just have thunderbird1245 tell us his Top 5 guys and we'd be done with it until Draft Night. That would save several threads and several hundred posts so it's actually a great idea. Come on Tbird, give us your Top 5!

                How good are the Colts?

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                • #9
                  Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

                  Originally posted by PacerPenguins View Post
                  Tbird sure knows a hell of a lot more than him than I do, I trust his analysis
                  You should believe in yourself more. If you like Oubre then like him. Don't let some stranger tell you different.

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                  • #10
                    Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

                    Originally posted by I Love P View Post
                    You should believe in yourself more. If you like Oubre then like him. Don't let some stranger tell you different.
                    If you believe climate change is ********, then stick to it. Don't let some scientist tell you different.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

                      My concern with Oubre is that he does not have a good handle and is weak. Pass at 11. He will take too long to develop.
                      {o,o}
                      |)__)
                      -"-"-

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                      • #12
                        Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

                        Originally posted by dgranger17 View Post
                        With all due respect to thunderbird1245 and I'm sure he would agree here... we should trust Larry Bird's thoughts a whole hell of a lot more than we do thunderbird' thoughts.
                        Ahh. I guess I missed Larry Bird's draft board and analysis. Could you post a link to it?

                        Without that, I'll have to go with the guy I think has the best chops around here. tbird has the edge over p4e because of the in-depth analysis, but either one of those guys has me listening when they talk.
                        BillS

                        A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
                        Or throw in a first-round pick and flip it for a max-level point guard...

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                        • #13
                          Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

                          Originally posted by PacerPenguins View Post
                          Tbird sure knows a hell of a lot more than him than I do, I trust his analysis
                          though I agree that Tbird is very knowledgable when it comes to scouting these players, and I very much enjoy reading his analysis, it doesn't mean he can't make mistakes. For example, he was wrong about about Anthony Bennett and Orlando Johnson. He does seem very thorough and knows his stuff though, no doubt.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

                            Why is Oubre going pro exactly? I know that he was a hyped "5" star recruit from Rivals, which is often wrong about prospects. I also know that he didn't do much at Kansas. Even before reading Tbird's analysis, he has all the signs of an NBA bust. Maybe he has to go pro because he knows that he is a bum, and will get exposed by playing his Sophomore season. I just wish that the NBA would finally put an end to this "one-and-done" nonsense.
                            Being unable to close out a game in which you have a comfortable lead in the 4th Q = Pulling a Frank Vogel

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                            • #15
                              Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #5: Kelly Oubre

                              Originally posted by mattie View Post
                              Not what I was expecting obviously. That definitely sours my opinion on Oubre pretty quick...

                              I too noticed how he shot much better when he stepped into his shot. I like his shooting mechanics.. when he steps into it. He always has to be back and takes a big step forward with his left foot and it's a good looking shot, but every other circumstance his shot is pretty awful-

                              By the way, here is why I thought he could be a 3 and D guy pretty easily- Since he has to step into his shot, I thought that meant his biggest problem was footwork- In other words if he can be taught to simply set his feet and shoot immediately with confidence, than that would quickly make him be able (maybe after a full season plus an offseason) begin to be a reliable off the ball shooter. Meaning he could come off a screen and plant his feet, versus always having to step into the shot. My mistake, clearly, is thinking that was a simply a simple footwork problem instead of a fundamental flaw in the way he shoots. I don't understand completely what makes guys great shooters tho...

                              His ball handling is clearly terrible- I never doubted that, he reminds me a lot of Tayshawn Prince. My thinking tho- is that the Pacers absolutely do NOT need another ball handler with PG. That's why I never thought that would be an issue. This is probably a difference in opinion on how an offense needs to run, but I'm basically deathly afraid of anyone starting for the Pacers with Hill and PG who KNOWS how to dribble. I'd rather they don't even have the skill- So Vogel is forced to keep the ball in Hill's hand primarily, and PG's hand secondarily, because I think that will produce a much more effective offense. My problems with the Pacers offense in general, is always been to many ball handlers.

                              I could clearly be wrong about that, but the Pacers best offense of the last 4 years was the year they had Hill/PG/Danny/West/Roy.. That offense had only one guy who could dribble the ball, and they performed well. To me spreading the court, is way more important than having 3 guys take turns dribbiling. Ball handling in general isn't as important these days- I think you always need at least one dynamic player that can get to the rim, but as long as you have one, that's all you need. Pass! Don't dribble!

                              Anywho - Looks like I'm back on the Kaminsky band wagon.
                              Why don't you stick to your guns? Tbird does a fine job and puts in a lot of work, but he's not the end all be all. It's still a crap shoot. I've been on the Kaminsky bandwagon since day one and it's nice to have you, but you're putting too much stock in one person's opinion.

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