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Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

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    Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

    We roll on today, the last day of May 2015, with our 4th draft profile of this year, Wisconsin big man Frank Kaminsky. I have already previewed Kevon Looney, Tyus Jones, and Jerien Grant.....you can find their individual profiles elsewhere on this site.

    Kaminsky was a 4 year player at Wisconsin, beginning his career as a deep bench reserve, and then slowly working his way up to stardom by the middle of his junior year. Kaminsky helped lead his Badgers to the National Championship game this season, becoming the Wooden award winner and Naismith player of the year in the process.

    "Frank the Tank" is beloved in college basketball circles for his work ethic, willingness to stick with his program and not transfer like most kids these days would have, and for his outgoing and offbeat personality. It is quite certain that no player had as much fun playing this season as did Kaminsky, and nobody was a more popular teammate or personality with their fanbase.

    He averaged 18.8 ppg and 8.2 rebounds per game this season for the Badgers, numbers that were impressive even more so when you consider that Wisky had other talents to share the ball with, and that they played at one of the slower paces in college basketball. Kaminsky shot over 54% from the field and an extremely impressive 41.6% from 3pt range, easily becoming one of the best perimeter shooting big men to come out in the draft in quite a while.

    The NBA combine wasn't friendly to Kaminsky, as he measured in at a svelte 231lbs on his 7'0 3/4 frame. His wingspan was a very pedestrian 6'11, making him the only player in this years draft to have a shorter wingspan than his height. He also reportedly struggled in the less structured, more disorganized scrimmages played there. That of course cannot offset his clear high level play in college...but how will those particular set of skills translate to the next level? Let's examine that below:

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    Kaminsky has a huge amount of positive offensive attributes to his game, as he was a giant matchup nightmare for his college opponents.

    First, I want to talk about the very systematic way that Wisconsin develops its bigs. And Kaminsky is a "big".....he defies real labels to me. He isn't a "center", he isn't a "4" or a "5".....he is a 4.5 I guess if anything. He will play anywhere you need him to play offensively, and do anything but be a point guard for you, and even at that he can be a playmaker from the center of the floor in certain sets if you want him to be.

    Developmental wise at Wisconsin, huge credit should go to their entire staff for how well they teach post play in Madison. Gary Close, a long time assistant with Bo Ryan is one of the pre-eminent developmental guys in the country and a world renowned shooting coach. Greg Gard and Lamont Paris are also key guys in teaching players the skills of the game on that staff, as Bo Ryan has put together in my eyes the best big man skills coaching staff in the country. Add to that their "swing" offense enables and demands that their players be flexible and learn all skills necessary to all 5 traditional positions, and Kaminsky has a doctorate level knowledge of offensive skills, techniques, footwork, and strategies.

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    Post play goes under the microscope first.

    Kaminsky is only limited by his own physical shortcomings as a post guy. From a technical standpoint, he does pretty much everything technical correct, excelling in some things and being more than adequate in the others.

    He is outstanding from a footwork standpoint in the most crucial area you can be good at footwork, which is prior to the catch itself! He is excellent at getting position and showing a target to his passer, "showing his pits" and letting the passer read both his numbers. He gives a good target with his hand placement, and he maneuvers himself with his feet so he has a built in advantage upon the catch most of the time.

    He is truly an artist with his feet inside as the ball is coming to him, as he will subtly shuffle his feet to maneuver you to wear he has 1 foot between your 2 feet, which provides him leverage and balance and putting the defender at a major disadvantage right from jump street. On the occasions when he cannot do that, he is adept at backing his way into the defender, subtle but quickly going at such an angle that he gets himself into that position. Once he is there, the move is easy for him to make.

    In the event that the defender backs off during the catch and breaks contact, Kaminsky either utilizes that back down dribble if he has room, or uses the well taught reverse pivot to turn and size up the defender. Kaminsky doesn't have the elevation or reach to shoot over the top of defenders his own size with that move, but he can shoot over players who are smaller, lazily don't have their hands all the way up, or who are slightly off balance and leaning on their heels. Better yet, he has the ability to put the ball on the floor already and make an attacking dribble move, where he is outstanding at using a spin move to bounce off the defense and draw fouls and 3 point play opportunities.

    As a true NBA post option, he will I project struggle against the elite lengthy defenders. But that is ok because Kaminsky is smart enough to take those players to the perimeter, assuming he is playing with an offensively creative and in tune coach and smart teammates who understand how to play the right way. He isn't going to be a guy who you can play inside as a center and play "4 around 1" with....he isn't Shaq, Dwight Howard, Akeem, or Tim Duncan.....but if you play a smaller player against Kaminsky, or switch a small guy onto him after he sets a screen, then he can take you inside and make you pay.

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    Kaminsky is going to be a major weapon on the perimeter for whoever he plays for, provided that he plays in the right type of scheme with the right staff. He is a premium offensive chess piece that can go around the board wherever you need him to go. His biggest arsenal in his weaponry is clearly his perimeter skills at this point, despite being an exquisite post up technician.

    Kaminsky is a major weapon on a pick/pop situation, with shooting, handling, and passing skills that will cause migraine headaches for coaching staffs around the league. He shoots it well enough that he will have gravity on that end, and cause teams to struggle to alter their rotations in order to guard him......provided that he expands his range slightly to the NBA line, which I clearly assume he can and will.

    Defenses will either have to "switch" a ballscreen he sets (which means he will take that smaller player inside), hedge hard or trap the ballhandler (leaving you vulnerable to him short rolling you and being a 4 on 3 playmaker from the center of the floor, with 7'0 vision and high basketball IQ to deal with), or "stunt" at him or just outright rotate to him and scramble behind. All those options stink for the defense provided you have good players for him to play with.

    He is also a nightmare in the way that Bo Ryan became famous for as on offensive coach, which is the concept of "roll/replace".....in this scenario, you run a ballscreen somewhere and position your players where Kaminsky's man is a helper, though not directly involved in the screening action. As his man is in the paint helping, Kaminsky rotates behind the action for a kickout pass and open shot.

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    No matter how you slice it, Kaminsky is a problem for opponents on the offensive end of the floor as a scoring threat, and not just in the conventional ways I described.

    Unconventionally for his size, I think you can run Kaminsky off of screen action away from the ball. His footwork is exceptional, his short area quickness is very underrated, and we already know his shooting is a major plus. You can run traditional "floppy action" (or at least experiment with it if you are creative), you can run him off of pin-downs, run him off of shuffle and flex cuts, and let him be a weapon as a backscreener in old school "UCLA" cutting action. I would highly recommend that to use Kaminsky in the best way possible, that you don't pigeonhole him into any one thing, that instead you take full advantage of his wide variety of skills and extremely high basketball IQ to make him a severe defensive problem.

    Think about it: Kaminsky sets a backscreen for someone away from the ball.....can his guy afford to help and bump that cutter?

    Think about this: Defense puts a smaller guy on him, so Kaminsky posts up twice and scores. Defense adjusts and puts their 5 man on him. Now offense adjusts and uses him as a ballscreener away from the basket, taking away your rim protection potentially.

    Or this: team puts a bigger player on Kaminsky, yet can somehow deal with the ballscreen stuff you run for him. Ok, so now you run him off baseline screens and pindowns and make that slower bigger guy have to run all over the floor through traffic....something that 5 man isn't able to do likely.

    Or this: A team has a player who can somehow matchup with Kaminsky both inside and on the perimeter. (there are some....like an Ibaka and others). So now you put him at the elbows or the middle of the floor and get him the ball and let him in effect be a quasi point forward for you in certain special plays.....inverting your offense just like they did at Wisconsin.

    Whatever team ends up with Kaminsky I hope they realize they should really use ALL THE THINGS HE CAN DO, AND NOT SPEND TIME SO MUCH COMPLAINING ABOUT WHAT HE CANNOT DO.

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    Kaminsky, despite my glowing words above, isn't above reproach offensively and he was some things he can improve on.

    First, he needs to quicken his release just slightly.....this will make his already good perimeter shot fake even more of a weapon.

    Next, he has to be a better screener. Away from the ball he doesn't always just plant guys as hard as I wish he did. This is a particularly touchy subject for me, because we haven't had a top notch screener in Indiana since....Brad Miller maybe, or maybe Dale Davis. Kaminsky has to hold his screens a bit longer and not be so eager to do the next thing in his bag of tricks.

    Third, he is going to have to explode out of his ballscreens a bit lower and with more force, so he can space the floor in a more expanded way. He is sometimes a bit slow to turn and find the ball, because he standing up out of his stance a bit early.

    Lastly, he has to expand his range to the NBA line....and he has to improve his range from all areas of the floor. I along with everyone else is just assuming he will be a great floor spacer in all areas of the floor, but at Wisconsin he rarely if ever went to the baseline corners in their scheme. I assume he can do that, but I don't KNOW it for sure.

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    Kaminsky's reputation is that he will be unathletic and slow. I guess that might be a certain bias in the scouting world, but to me has some less obvious athletic attributes that I think will help him be a strong NBA player.

    Kaminsky first of all has quick hands and strong hand/eye coordination. He is constantly poking the ball away, getting his fingers on passes and slapping the ball out of people's hands. I have no numbers, but I bet Kaminsky was way above average in defensive touches and deflections for players in this draft. Maybe they didn't lead to steals directly to him, but he is pesky. Because he isn't a shot blocker at all, he will have to be a little like Jeff Foster was as a defender to be able to play.

    Next, while I wouldn't call him "quick", he is pretty good at making a 1 or 2 step slide in a stance. He isn't a total liability in a screen/roll game as a defender, as he can usually at least somewhat hold his own against some ballhandlers, though it isn't a strength of his by any means.

    Thirdly, he has really really good balance. He doesn't rush himself, jump when he shouldn't, or lean the wrong directions. KAMINSKY ALWAYS PLAYS ON THE BALLS OF HIS FEET....which is huge. This is yet another reason why he is such a fundamentally sound player.

    While he clearly isn't going to be a shotblocker or top notch defender or anything, I do think most opponents will have someone on the floor he can guard. It will simply depend on the matchup on a given night.

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    As a post defender, guarding a bigger player inside, the best of the best can overwhelm him with size and length and power. He can guard some 5 guys in the league, but not the better ones. He is a positional, scouting report defender with good feet and a good understanding of the entire defensive big picture, but the top notch guys will just shoot over him over power past him.

    As a helper, he is going to need to be a guy who takes charges and slaps the ball away, as he brings no other type of rim protection to the table.

    If he is guarding 4's, he will be able to mostly hold his own, but again it depends on the matchup. Most backup 4's will be no problem for him, and guys who are one dimensional or limited he will be able to handle ok. Against the best of the best though you'll have to scheme a little bit or provide him some help.

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    As a rebounder, Kaminsky is a blocking out machine. While I am not a big "block out" guy personally, the old school fans among you will like watching him rebound. He projects to be an above average defensive rebounder, but below average on the offensive glass, since he isn't explosive or a high flyer, and he will be 20 feet from the basket on many possessions. He does seem to like contact inside and relishes the challenge of blocking out bigger stronger guys. He also pursues the ball well but he definitely holds his blockout a little long for my taste. He PREVENTS THE OPPONENT FROM GETTING THE REBOUND BETTER THAN HE BOARDS HIMSELF, if that makes any sense. If he is playing bigger stronger 5 men, they will be able to outmuscle him some and shove him under the rim, but most 4 men won't be able to do that generally. As a leaper, he doesn't get very high in the air, but because he is always on the balls of his feet he is often THE FIRST into the air, which I love.

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    I want to talk about some other attributes I see in Kaminsky before ending this report.

    In my view, Kaminsky can be described as relentless and tough....2 words that I doubt are used by many with him.

    Kaminsky outfights people for the ball. Kaminsky doesn't die on a play, and he doesn't get down on himself during a game. His body language is steady and good. He is relentless in that he makes a mistake, gives up a basket or gets his shot blocked or whatever, and shows absolutely no fear or give up right after that....he just keeps coming at you on film. I saw a lot of possessions where a team guarded Kaminsky well, forced him to pass it back out.....then Wisky just calmly ran something else and got him the ball again somewhere, where he scored right in someone's grill.

    Kaminsky "gets it", and you can go to war with him on your team I think and feel good about it.

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    How can he maximize his abilities?

    Some of the common things I read others have said about him is that he is maxed out as a player, and that he is ready to help a team immediately. I think both of these statements are wrong.

    Kaminsky isn't yet maxed out I think as a player because his body is no where near where it will be in year 2 or 3 of his career. Kaminsky was one of the only players in this draft I saw up close and personally over the years, and Kaminsky looks like he hasn't been in the weight room a lot. That is typical of the Bo Ryan program, which prioritizes skill development over strength development, and actually at Wisky they wan their kids to be kids.....they don't isolate them from the student body like a Kentucky or other programs do. What that means is that he hasn't been on a strict diet, a real strength program, or been super dedicated to his body.....Wisconsin is very old school when it comes to that like many of the smaller D1 school are forced to be due to finances.

    Frank needs to add big time strength to his core and to his whole body really. I think he needs a year to really be able to do that, and he will be much better in year 2 or year 3 than he is in year 1.

    Plus, he isn't going to be a high flyer ever, but he can definitely be more flexible with his lower torso, which will let him be able to jump a little higher and mitigate that poor reach.

    There are definitely athletic improvements Frank will have to make to be able to be as good as I think his potential can be. If not, he will turn into Steve Novak, which isn't anywhere near how good I think he can be.

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    So what do we have in Frank Kaminsky?

    I think we have an extremely flexible and high quality offensive big man, who is sort of caught in between positions defensively but be such a strong weapon on the other end with high character that he is worth it.

    I also think that Kaminsky's future success depends greatly on the right staff, right system, and right teammates surrounding him. On the wrong team, I think Kaminsky will just be a guy....but used correctly in the exact right way, with a winning culture and complimentary teammates that accentuate his many strengths and help hide his weaknesses, then I think he can be a core player on a championship level 50 plus win team. I project he will have a long career into his mid 30's, and put up good numbers at an above average level for really strong teams if he is used correctly.

    To get the most out of him and to more importantly WIN with Kaminsky, you have to play him next to a RIM PROTECTOR at least most of the time, and ideally someone who is athletic and flexible offensively also. Think about Kaminsky as being a major tool in the toolbox, but to really get the job done building what you need, you need other tools also. He will be better on smart teams with veteran guys, and with coaches who use his intellect and flexibility wisely offensively that play a sound defensive scheme that can hide him a little.

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    What does this mean for Indiana at #11?

    I'd strongly consider taking Kaminsky myself personally, depending on whoever else is left. I certainly won't be surprised nor disappointed if Frank the Tank is a Pacer on draft night. But if he is, the job in building a championship roster isn't nearly done, it is still in process.....because then you have to find in some ways the exact right bigs to surround him with eventually to maximize his game.

    Hibbert next to Kaminsky isn't ideal, but it isn't horrible either because Roy can protect the rim pretty well still, and Kaminsky can play anywhere that is needed to provide him room. Kaminsky is also a pretty good fit with Mahimni for a 2nd unit, and is a clear upgrade skill wise to Luis Scola at this point and is a long term replacement for David West, though to be perfect you'd want a more athletic big man than Roy is. I also think against some backup units that a Kaminsky/West pairing is interesting from an offensive standpoint.

    Kaminsky is a long term nice piece, you just need other good pieces that we don't have yet to get the most out of him. I am a fan and I like the player a lot....I think he is eventually if he hits his ceiling in the top 1/3 of bigs in the league.

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    Comparables for Kaminsky were kind of fun to think about. It was such a different game just a few years ago, but I think we can go into the semi recent to deep past to find guys who I think will compare to Kaminsky.

    I think his floor is another former collegiate player of the year, Christian Laettner. Laettner was a solid pro for a long time, but not a player who led his teams to anywhere. That I think is the bottom of what Kaminsky can be.

    But if he hits his ceiling?

    I think he is Bill Laimbeer. Laimbeer was a tremendously successful championship player for the Bad Boy Pistons. He was an outstanding shooter from particularly the top of key area, and if he played today he'd be a three point shooter I'd guess. He was tough as nails, borderline dirty, and a guy his teammates loved and opponents hated. (including Larry Bird). But to a man, everyone respected him.

    Laimbeer was effective as he was because Detroit had depth of guys that helped fill in his weaknesses. They had in particularly Jon Salley and Dennis Rodman, who were perfect compliments for him defensively....Rodman was a dynamic wing defender and Salley was a rim protector. Plus, James Edwards gave them some low post scoring eventually that let Laimbeer play outside more than most bigs did back then.

    Laimbeer was an under the rim rebounder but who put up big numbers on the glass, likely a better rebounder than Kaminsky will be...so it isn't a perfect match but I think it is close.

    Vlade Divac is also not a bad comparable....Divac was a strong offensive player who excelled when paired with Chris Webber, especially in the highly intellectual Rick Adelman offense back in the day. Others might use Brad Miller as a comparable, and when we had JO to pair with him Miller was outstanding for our own franchise in another era.

    Laettner/Laimbeer/Divac/Miller.......all long term strong NBA players who had a lot of success. Somewhere in that mix is where I think Kaminsky can be. And for pick #11....that would be pretty damn good to me.

    Others can and will disagree, and that is perfectly fine. Many other draft profiles to come in the next 3 weeks, and many other interesting possibilities exist.

    Tbird
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  • #2
    Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

    With the current frontcourt soon to be gone and Luis as well, I don't think Frank can be a reliable 82 game starter. If the Pacers are truly wanting to go more uptempo next year, Kaminsky doesn't make much sense. He's not a stiff but there are more mobile players who put up similar production available.

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    • #3
      Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

      Kaminsky is on my short list. He is number 3, but he is still on the list.

      I think he is going to surprise some people and be a solid starting PF for many years. As Tbird said, it will be important to surround him with the proper bigs that will help cover up his deficiencies.

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      • #4
        Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

        He's a safe pick. A pick that most likely won't fail but instead of top 1/3 can he be in the top 1/10th? I think Turner and WCS are more in that territory.

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        • #5
          Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

          Of the big men the Pacers can possibly get I want WCS, Frank then Turner. I hope for the first 2 or cameron payne.

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          • #6
            Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

            I"m hoping Kaminsky will be our pick.
            Go Pacers!

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            • #7
              Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

              Can Kaminsky develop a "Dirk-like" right knee in the gut turnaround jumper? I get Frank isn't quite as long as Dirk but he seems to have the footwork, body control & form/release. It could be pretty efficient even against tougher more physical defenders & shot blockers.

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              • #8
                Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

                I just don't get how Kristaps is ranked higher on mocks than Kaminsky. Makes no sense. Kristpas plays in the euro league. I know for a fact the competition isn't as good as the college game. And know one heard about this guy until this draft. Euro bigs are soft.

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                • #9
                  Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

                  Originally posted by Downtown Bang! View Post
                  Can Kaminsky develop a "Dirk-like" right knee in the gut turnaround jumper? I get Frank isn't quite as long as Dirk but he seems to have the footwork, body control & form/release. It could be pretty efficient even against tougher more physical defenders & shot blockers.
                  Yes he can, and I bet he is already working on it. He also needs to develop a fadeaway jumpshot, then a countermove off of that. One reason why I like Kaminsky is that I think he can be coached hard, and I think he can take coaching and adapt to his game fairly quickly.

                  Now, I am just projecting that of course. I would have thought Jeff Foster could have developed and got better once he entered the league, but he never really did, basically staying the same player throughout his career. I am projecting Kaminsky continues his arch of improvement and adds to his game each month/year, but its just an educated guess at this point.

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                  • #10
                    Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

                    Looks like the best choice so far. From the majority of your analysis he appears to be the yin to Hibbert's yang, and might be able to replace most of what West once brought to the table, especially if West somehow stays on to mentor him, not counting West's leadership and maturity obviously.

                    For Bird to follow what he has stated publically about wanting to speed things up (which likely means somehow Hibbert is gone), somebody is going to have to dump a player on us in a sign and trade that we wouldn't want to take on. We will have both PG and GH to score and defend the perimeter, and should get an actual point guard to allow GH to shift to the 2 while allowing PG to keep playing the 3 (not the 4, Larry). Otherwise, I see Hibbert being here. If he is here, it is probably best to try to build an interior around him that balances his weaknesses, especially someone capable of being a 4, especially if that 4 has the capability to both score and facilitate.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

                      I was not a big Frank Kaminsky fan till I watched him in the NCAA Tourney vs Arizona, Kentucky and Duke. In those 3 games he averaged 20+ points and nearly 10 rebounds and was not out played by any of those 3 teams big guys. He showed he could score on the bigs and hold his own on the boards. I could very easily be okay with Frank being drafted by the Pacers. Everything I've ever read on Frank is he works hard, gives it his all and is a great team mate. His ceiling is low but his floor is very high.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

                        I like this guy. Kaminsky looks like a guy that is capable of defending his position and being a great offensive player.

                        For those of you who are better at seeing such things, could this Frank guy be a guy that can be Tbird's Player X? To me, he looks like a guy that can play both big slots well enough. It would be nice not to have to play a 5 big rotation like last season.

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                        • #13
                          Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

                          3rd time is charm as I've written a post only to have it disappear b4 my eyes. This has been going on for 6 weeks or so.

                          I wouldn't be unhappy if Kaminsky was the pick, but I wouldn't be elated either. I feel he isn't the best big that will be available to the Pacers. If it comes down to Frank or Turner, there is no question you draft Frank. I'm looking forward to seeing T-Bird's player analysis for Portis, Lyles, and Booker.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

                            I'd much rather have Kaminsky than Payne. I think Kaminsky will be better or just as good as Cody Zeller.

                            Still hoping for some draft day trades, cause staying at 11 would be a disservice to the Pacers. They have some holes to fill, lack athletic players, and have very little in the budget. Trades can really help this team out.
                            First time in a long time, I've been happy with the team that was constructed, and now they struggle. I blame the coach.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Tbird 2015 NBA Draft Analysis #4: Frank Kaminsky

                              Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
                              Yes he can, and I bet he is already working on it. He also needs to develop a fadeaway jumpshot, then a countermove off of that. One reason why I like Kaminsky is that I think he can be coached hard, and I think he can take coaching and adapt to his game fairly quickly.

                              Now, I am just projecting that of course. I would have thought Jeff Foster could have developed and got better once he entered the league, but he never really did, basically staying the same player throughout his career. I am projecting Kaminsky continues his arch of improvement and adds to his game each month/year, but its just an educated guess at this point.
                              I partially disagree with you here. Dirk was a SF when he first entered the league, and though he wasn't a marvel, he was a lot more athletic than I think some give him credit for. Dirk was also a good ball handler for his size, which is why that move (high knee, turnaround j) was so hard to defend.

                              Now if we are saying Frank can develop a high knee, turnaround j out of the post that's one thing. But I don't think there's any way that your ISO'ing Frank at the top of the key and letting him go to work as Dallas did with Dirk.

                              Edit: and that may not be what you were saying

                              I totally agree that Franks effectiveness could be determined on where he goes. If he goes to the right situation with the right athletes around him, I think he could look really good. At the very least he should be a pretty strong contributing role player. Whether he's more probably depends on where he's drafted (which is part of the reason why idk that the pacers are the best fit for him)
                              Last edited by Ace E.Anderson; 05-31-2015, 07:33 PM.

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