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Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game (and Deflategate discussion)

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  • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

    They could've said Aaron Hernandez did it that would be more believable than this.

    Comment


    • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

      Originally posted by Since86 View Post
      I guess we'll need a new law of thermodynamics, explaining how it depends on which sideline you need.
      Nope. One rule, one equation.

      The gory details, if you will, and I ignore completely the admittedly controversial "wet leather expansion" factor.

      The ideal gas law: PV = nRT
      The ideal gas law modeled for two conditions 1 and 2: P1V1 = nRT1 and P2V2 = nRT2
      Solving for Volume V in each case: V1 = nRT1/P1 and V2 = nRT2/P2

      Now we will assume that V1 = V2; that is, the volume of the football will not change during the game; therefore; nRT1/P1 = nRT2/P2;
      Dividing each side by the constants n and R; leaves: T1/P1 = T2/P2

      Now let‘s determine the real values based upon:

      T1 = initial temperature of inflation (indoors) = room temperature, likely equals 72 degrees F = 22.22 degrees C = 295.37 Kelvin;
      T2 = final temperature = game time temperature (published value at kickoff) = 51 degrees F = 10.56 degrees C = 283.71 Kelvin
      P1 = absolute pressure at the onset, equals relative pressure + atmospheric pressure, and since reported atmospheric pressure at the time point nearest kickoff time, as reported by Weather Underground, equals 29.75 in = 14.61 psi at 6:53 PM;
      P1 equals 12.50 psi + 14.61 psi, = 27.11 psi

      All that we need to do is solve for P2:
      Since T1/P1 = T2/P2; the reciprocal is true and P1/T1 = P2/T2
      Multiplying both sides by T2 solves for P2:
      P2 = P1T2/T1

      Plugging in the actual values for the known quantities P1, T1 and T2;
      P2 = (27.11) x (283.71) / (295.37) = 26.04 = absolute pressure of the football at the end condition (halftime).
      Relative pressure = absolute pressure – atmospheric pressure = 26.04 – 14.70 = 11.34 psi
      Therefore, the drop in relative pressure P2 – P1 thus equals 12.50 – 11.34 = 1.16 psi

      Plain English: By the ideal gas law, a football inflated to 12.50 psi at 72 degrees F and cooled to 51 degrees F will have a final pressure of 11.34 psi, thus a loss of 1.16 psi.

      Carnegie Mellon Finding #1: Footballs inflated to 12.50 psi at 75 degrees F and cooled to 50 degrees F had a final pressure of 11.4 psi, a loss of 1.1 psi (summarized in the pdf document at http://www.headsmartlabs.com/
      Conclusion #1: Experiment seems to match ideal gas law prediction rather closely. Note that they used a slightly larger temperature drop, 25 degrees, not 21 degrees. We do not know room temperature in the ref’s room, though, anyway.

      Carnegie Mellon Finding #2: Footballs inflated to 12.50 psi at 75 degrees F and cooled to 50 degrees F and then soaked with water had a final pressure of 10.7 psi, a loss of 1.8 psi.
      Conclusion #2: A second factor, the expansion of a football as it gets wet, also leads to a drop in psi. This factor contributes another 0.7 psi in pressure drop. This in essence shows that the “constant volume assumption” of the ideal gas law is not fully valid since a football is not infinitely rigid.

      One important caveat on the Carnegie Mellon Experiment #2: In this experiment they immersed the football in water for a time. Is that analogous to heavy rain, or is it overkill? That criticism concerns me a bit. The real world effect of a heavy rain is probably between their dry ball result (1.1 psi) and the soaked ball result (1.8 psi). But to err on the side of caution, let’s ignore the water effect for now and go with the dry ball result: 1.1 psi drop at Carnegie Mellon, in agreement with the 1.16 psi calculation.

      Plain English ultimate conclusion for the Patriots footballs: It would be reasonable to expect, based on both experimental results and ideal gas law calculations, for a pressure drop of about 1.2 psi to have occurred within the Patriots footballs in the first half of the AFCCG, based on the known game time conditions and the observation that the footballs were inflated to 12.5 (relative) psi at room temperature.

      Aha though- what about the Colts footballs? We don’t know their initial pressure, unfortunately, but if we assume that they were at the maximum legal pressure of 13.5 psi relative pressure (since they apparently knew that ball pressure loss would be monitored), we can calculate the expected pressure drop.

      T1 = 295.37 Kelvin, as before
      T2 = 283.71 Kelvin, as before
      P1 = absolute pressure at the onset = 13.50 psi + 14.61 psi, = 28.11 psi
      P2 = (28.11) x (283.71) / (295.37) = 27.00
      Relative pressure = 27.00 – 14.70 = 12.30 psi

      Thus the Colts footballs should have been a final pressure of 12.3 psi. The legal lower limit is 12.5 psi. The Colts footballs should have been illegal by 0.2 psi.

      Question: Would a referee call a reading of 12.3 rather than 12.5 to be clearly out of specifications and illegal? Maybe yes, maybe no. It certainly depends on both the accuracy and precision of the pressure gauge. A digital readout often shows significant drift/fluctuation in the last digit. If in real time the ref saw values pop up such as these: 12.3, 12.4, 12.5, 12.4, 12.3, 12.4; he would likely say: It looks to be about 12.5; pass! Similarly at the beginning, if he saw in real time 13.5, 13.6, 13.5, 13.6, 13.5, 13.6; he would likely say: It looks to be about 13.5, pass!

      Final conclusion: It is not unreasonable at all to assume that the Patriots balls would fail the inspection and the Colts balls would (barely) pass or (barely) fail, based upon logical assumptions of inflation levels and inflation temperatures in concert with the issues of temperature-related gas expansion, and the human-element: deciding when (and if) you are sure about that last digit on the pressure gauge.

      Not taken into account at all in this analysis is the ball preparation (rubbing) procedure. Thus in essence I am assuming that the ball preparation procedure does not affect psi in the least, which is Bill Nye’s assertion. To me, a 1 psi drop based on friction, even severe friction, seems a bit high. I disagree, though, that the effect must be zero. It is probably non-zero, but unknown and unknowable unless we knew the exact ball prep procedure. Still, it is not needed to explain a pressure drop of the magnitude seen. A key piece of the puzzle is the actual ref-recorded data for the Colts footballs, clearly.

      These calculations have been confirmed, now, by two physics professors and one mechanical engineer.
      The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!).

      Comment


      • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

        I could buy the argument that the drop in PSI was due to temperature IF it had also happened to the Colts' balls. It didn't. Then there is the fact that the Colts complained to the NFL about New England underinflating balls back in November when the game was played indoors at room temperature.

        It is possible that New England deliberately inflated the balls to the minimum requirement of 12.5 PSI knowing that when exposed to lower temperatures the pressure would drop thus giving their offense an advantage. Shady but not technically illegal, just like the four lineman and eligible/ineligible shenanigans in the Baltimore game.

        Comment


        • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

          A Toronto physicist says that it would take a 30 degree change in temperature to cause that kind of pressure drop:

          http://m.torontosun.com/2015/01/24/d...-drop-theories

          Comment


          • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

            Originally posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
            Nope. One rule, one equation.

            The gory details, if you will, and I ignore completely the admittedly controversial "wet leather expansion" factor.

            The ideal gas law: PV = nRT
            The ideal gas law modeled for two conditions 1 and 2: P1V1 = nRT1 and P2V2 = nRT2
            Solving for Volume V in each case: V1 = nRT1/P1 and V2 = nRT2/P2

            Now we will assume that V1 = V2; that is, the volume of the football will not change during the game; therefore; nRT1/P1 = nRT2/P2;
            Dividing each side by the constants n and R; leaves: T1/P1 = T2/P2

            Now let‘s determine the real values based upon:

            T1 = initial temperature of inflation (indoors) = room temperature, likely equals 72 degrees F = 22.22 degrees C = 295.37 Kelvin;
            T2 = final temperature = game time temperature (published value at kickoff) = 51 degrees F = 10.56 degrees C = 283.71 Kelvin
            P1 = absolute pressure at the onset, equals relative pressure + atmospheric pressure, and since reported atmospheric pressure at the time point nearest kickoff time, as reported by Weather Underground, equals 29.75 in = 14.61 psi at 6:53 PM;
            P1 equals 12.50 psi + 14.61 psi, = 27.11 psi

            All that we need to do is solve for P2:
            Since T1/P1 = T2/P2; the reciprocal is true and P1/T1 = P2/T2
            Multiplying both sides by T2 solves for P2:
            P2 = P1T2/T1

            Plugging in the actual values for the known quantities P1, T1 and T2;
            P2 = (27.11) x (283.71) / (295.37) = 26.04 = absolute pressure of the football at the end condition (halftime).
            Relative pressure = absolute pressure – atmospheric pressure = 26.04 – 14.70 = 11.34 psi
            Therefore, the drop in relative pressure P2 – P1 thus equals 12.50 – 11.34 = 1.16 psi

            Plain English: By the ideal gas law, a football inflated to 12.50 psi at 72 degrees F and cooled to 51 degrees F will have a final pressure of 11.34 psi, thus a loss of 1.16 psi.

            Carnegie Mellon Finding #1: Footballs inflated to 12.50 psi at 75 degrees F and cooled to 50 degrees F had a final pressure of 11.4 psi, a loss of 1.1 psi (summarized in the pdf document at http://www.headsmartlabs.com/
            Conclusion #1: Experiment seems to match ideal gas law prediction rather closely. Note that they used a slightly larger temperature drop, 25 degrees, not 21 degrees. We do not know room temperature in the ref’s room, though, anyway.

            Carnegie Mellon Finding #2: Footballs inflated to 12.50 psi at 75 degrees F and cooled to 50 degrees F and then soaked with water had a final pressure of 10.7 psi, a loss of 1.8 psi.
            Conclusion #2: A second factor, the expansion of a football as it gets wet, also leads to a drop in psi. This factor contributes another 0.7 psi in pressure drop. This in essence shows that the “constant volume assumption” of the ideal gas law is not fully valid since a football is not infinitely rigid.

            One important caveat on the Carnegie Mellon Experiment #2: In this experiment they immersed the football in water for a time. Is that analogous to heavy rain, or is it overkill? That criticism concerns me a bit. The real world effect of a heavy rain is probably between their dry ball result (1.1 psi) and the soaked ball result (1.8 psi). But to err on the side of caution, let’s ignore the water effect for now and go with the dry ball result: 1.1 psi drop at Carnegie Mellon, in agreement with the 1.16 psi calculation.

            Plain English ultimate conclusion for the Patriots footballs: It would be reasonable to expect, based on both experimental results and ideal gas law calculations, for a pressure drop of about 1.2 psi to have occurred within the Patriots footballs in the first half of the AFCCG, based on the known game time conditions and the observation that the footballs were inflated to 12.5 (relative) psi at room temperature.

            Aha though- what about the Colts footballs? We don’t know their initial pressure, unfortunately, but if we assume that they were at the maximum legal pressure of 13.5 psi relative pressure (since they apparently knew that ball pressure loss would be monitored), we can calculate the expected pressure drop.

            T1 = 295.37 Kelvin, as before
            T2 = 283.71 Kelvin, as before
            P1 = absolute pressure at the onset = 13.50 psi + 14.61 psi, = 28.11 psi
            P2 = (28.11) x (283.71) / (295.37) = 27.00
            Relative pressure = 27.00 – 14.70 = 12.30 psi

            Thus the Colts footballs should have been a final pressure of 12.3 psi. The legal lower limit is 12.5 psi. The Colts footballs should have been illegal by 0.2 psi.

            Question: Would a referee call a reading of 12.3 rather than 12.5 to be clearly out of specifications and illegal? Maybe yes, maybe no. It certainly depends on both the accuracy and precision of the pressure gauge. A digital readout often shows significant drift/fluctuation in the last digit. If in real time the ref saw values pop up such as these: 12.3, 12.4, 12.5, 12.4, 12.3, 12.4; he would likely say: It looks to be about 12.5; pass! Similarly at the beginning, if he saw in real time 13.5, 13.6, 13.5, 13.6, 13.5, 13.6; he would likely say: It looks to be about 13.5, pass!

            Final conclusion: It is not unreasonable at all to assume that the Patriots balls would fail the inspection and the Colts balls would (barely) pass or (barely) fail, based upon logical assumptions of inflation levels and inflation temperatures in concert with the issues of temperature-related gas expansion, and the human-element: deciding when (and if) you are sure about that last digit on the pressure gauge.

            Not taken into account at all in this analysis is the ball preparation (rubbing) procedure. Thus in essence I am assuming that the ball preparation procedure does not affect psi in the least, which is Bill Nye’s assertion. To me, a 1 psi drop based on friction, even severe friction, seems a bit high. I disagree, though, that the effect must be zero. It is probably non-zero, but unknown and unknowable unless we knew the exact ball prep procedure. Still, it is not needed to explain a pressure drop of the magnitude seen. A key piece of the puzzle is the actual ref-recorded data for the Colts footballs, clearly.

            These calculations have been confirmed, now, by two physics professors and one mechanical engineer.
            So, best case scenario (Colts' balls at 13.5), the Colts' balls would fall below the legal limit? Seems like that says a lot right there.

            Comment


            • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

              Originally posted by Sollozzo View Post


              Per Glazer, the league has interviewed a Patriots locker room attendant who allegedly took footballs from the officials locker room after they had been inspected and approved “to another area on way to field” before the start of the game. There’s reportedly video of this attendant with the balls, although Glazer adds that the league’s investigators are “still gauging” if the attendant, called a “strong person of interest,” had anything to do with the deflation.


              http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...oom-attendant/
              It may not mean anything, but that sounds shady as hell.

              Comment


              • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

                Originally posted by LuckSwagger View Post
                It may not mean anything, but that sounds shady as hell.
                Is his name Dougy Spoons?

                Comment


                • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

                  So basically, the Colts balls were legal, therefore breaking the laws of physics. Sounds plausible.

                  Comment


                  • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

                    Originally posted by travmil View Post
                    So basically, the Colts balls were legal, therefore breaking the laws of physics. Sounds plausible.
                    The Colts were cheating!
                    Originally posted by Natston;n3510291
                    I want the people to know that they still have 2 out of the 3 T.J.s working for them, and that ain't bad...

                    Comment


                    • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

                      Originally posted by Natston View Post
                      The Colts were cheating!
                      Yes because in order to be legal when tested at halftime they had to be originally overinflated-above 13.5.

                      Comment


                      • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

                        I think they were pumping the balls full of gatorade, keeping those bladders full...
                        Originally posted by Natston;n3510291
                        I want the people to know that they still have 2 out of the 3 T.J.s working for them, and that ain't bad...

                        Comment


                        • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

                          Kraft expects apology if NFL cant find culprit

                          http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/...tegate-culprit

                          Comment


                          • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

                            Yeah I don't think so.....

                            I seriously thought that was going to be an Onion article when I saw that headline. They are investigating footballs that were not legal according to NFL rules. When rules are broken, intentional or not, apologies go the other direction Bob.

                            Comment


                            • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

                              The arrogance of that organization, from the QB to the coach to the owner, knows no bounds.

                              Comment


                              • Re: Colts vs Pats AFC Title Game

                                PFT is reporting that the locker room attendant that is being questions is shown on video disappearing into a stadium bathroom for 90 seconds with both the Patriots and Colts bags of balls.

                                http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...into-bathroom/

                                Comment

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