And the flip side, here's a comment about the Lions, who went 3-8 in those close games last year:
It's hard to classify teams into a group when it comes to measuring close-game performance, but let's work with those teams since 1989 that played at least seven close games and won at least 70 percent of those games. There are 84 instances of that happening. The following year, those 84 teams went a combined 308-292-2 in one-touchdown games, winning 51.1 percent of the contests. That's textbook regression to the mean. Indy won't be as good in close games again in 2013
In any case, again, let's try to compare the Lions to teams that were similarly bad (or unlucky) in one-touchdown games. In all, 51 teams have lost seven or more games by one score or less since 1989; their average record in one-touchdown games during this awful season was 2.5-7.5, meaning they won 25 percent of those close games. The following year, those same teams went a combined 188-210 in those games, nearly doubling their win rate at 47.2 percent. Overall, they won an average of 3.1 more games the following season. That all bodes well for the Lions, who could have a much better record with a merely average amount of luck next season.