It's good to see people finally seeing what Luck can do. I've been saying for months now how special of a guy we have, and I know some of my comments months ago seemed outlandish, but I know they were the truth then and I still believe it. He's the best QB I've ever seen come out of college, ever, and that's including Peyton Manning. He has the talent, skillset, mindset and ability to be the greatest ever. His game is so absolutely perfectly balanced and complete, it's awesome. I don't gush about guys like this often, if ever -- most of you know that. I've been posting here for 8 years and for 5-6 years before that on RATS, I've never posted thoughts like this about a player ever. For any team.
He has all the makings to be damn near the most perfect football player I've ever seen, and he's still green. That's what you have to do, look at what makes him tick and put it all together and try to project into the future what this guy will be like when he actually "blossoms" and becomes comfortable. As good as he's looked, he's still very much green, young, and inexperienced.
I didn't make those claims months ago on blind homerism. I watched him extensively and compared him to everything I've known about this game. To me, there is absolutely no comparison between him and RG3 or any other QBs in this league. It's in all the little things he does, the fundamentals, his footwork, his arm motion, his demeanor and humbleness, his mental traits and habits, his clutchness, his balance, strength, and intelligence. I've never seen a guy this young exhibit such a complete palette of traits like this. It's just a matter of time before he's the best damn quarterback in the entire league. His only mistakes right now are due to inexperience. Once he gets the experience.... it's just going to be friggin over for the entire league. I'm not saying that because I'm a Colts fan and he's a Colt. I'd say it if he was the Jags quarterback. I'd say it because I know it's the truth. I know it sounds outlandish still... it sounds outlandish to my ears to even say it, but I don't know any other way to express it, it is what it is, lol. I thought we as Colts fans had experienced the pinnacle of quarterbacking play during Manning's tenure.... but here we are.
It's ironic that this last name is Luck, because there is no luck involved. He's good. You make your own luck. It's embodied by the saying he goes by himself: "Competence over confidence." He's competent. When you're competent, you make plays and you increase your chances of success. The goofballs will call it luck.
And of course I'm speaking of the future, not right now, I know Luck is still a ways off from seeing his pinnacle. But it's not far off. 2-3 years. The team likely still won't have caught up to him, but he'll be carrying them. All we can do is sit back and watch and enjoy it.
Shaking off Clay Matthews to make a ridiculous completion to Reggie Wayne, down 5 points with a minute left in game #4 of his career.... I mean, come on. That **** shouldn't happen. You guys know this. But it did.
The Colts are better than anyone thought they'd be, and it all starts with #12. There's no logical reason why a team with $40mill in dead money, completely new management and coaching staff, and a plethora of rookies and low-experienced practice-squad players should be in the middle of the pack offensively/defensively and record-wise --- all historical precedence says we should be a train-wreck and competing for the 1st pick again this year, but we're not. The confidence they have in this kid is what lifts the entire team up.
I don't think he's so good as I think Kevin Kolb is just really bad. I'd put Schaub in that Rivers/Cutler/Romo zone--not quite elite, not sure you can rest the load of a team on their shoulders and win a Super Bowl, but definitely playoff caliber QBs.
Comebacks thrill us. Comebacks make our hearts race. Comebacks cause us to stand up and cheer. For all that, though, comebacks do not necessarily provide an accurate measure of NFL quarterback quality. Just ask Tim Tebow, who led five comebacks in 2011, only to find himself a backup on one of the league's worst offenses in 2012. After all, to come back at the end of a game, you must first play badly enough to fall behind. On the other side of the coin, you have a guy like Matt Schaub. The Houston Texans quarterback has put together an 11-3 record as a starter the past two seasons, but has no comebacks in that time because he has provided his team with so many early leads.....
Luck so far...
I like what I'm seeing. He is more then advertised at this point. For a rookie, he is truely amazing. I hope he stays healthy.
Is Luck nursing injuries that we don't know about? how is it impossible for him to last the whole season at the current rate?
Nothing like misguided posts ;)
Every QB takes hits but from what I've seen (and granted i haven't been able to watch every game) Luck does a good job not taking the big hit when he decides to run. Similar to Marvin Harrison who was a master and not letting opponents get a big hit on him.
Comebacks thrill us. Comebacks make our hearts race. Comebacks cause us to stand up and cheer. For all that, though, comebacks do not necessarily provide an accurate measure of NFL quarterback quality. Just ask Tim Tebow, who led five comebacks in 2011, only to find himself a backup on one of the league's worst offenses in 2012. After all, to come back at the end of a game, you must first play badly enough to fall behind. On the other side of the coin, you have a guy like Matt Schaub. The Houston Texans quarterback has put together an 11-3 record as a starter the past two seasons, but has no comebacks in that time because he has provided his team with so many early leads.
With that in mind, what can we make of Andrew Luck and his big comeback that led the Indianapolis Colts to a 30-27 win over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday? On one hand, we must credit him for 31 completions, 362 yards, 16 first downs and three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing). On the other hand, we can't ignore his 24 incompletions, his four sacks taken, his interception or his fumble.
The fact is, Luck made a lot of good plays Sunday, but also many bad plays. He dropped back 30 times in the first half and produced only 157 net yards and five first downs. He was one of the biggest reasons the Colts fell behind in the first place. And though Luck had 11 first downs after halftime, including all three touchdowns, we can't forget that even during the comeback he had his struggles. He threw his interception while driving for a potential go-ahead score in the fourth quarter, and he also threw two incompletions as part of a three-and-out drive deep in Indianapolis territory that provided the Packers with excellent field position to set up a go-ahead score of their own.
Honestly, the Indianapolis defense deserves as much credit for the comeback as Luck does. The Colts D let the Packers take the lead on a touchdown drive that started in Indianapolis territory, but Green Bay's seven other second-half drives resulted in four punts, two missed field goals and an interception.
Despite his big comeback, Luck barely makes Football Outsiders' top 10 quarterbacks this week, and actually falls slightly short of his Green Bay counterpart, Aaron Rodgers. Remember too that these numbers account for the quality of defense faced. If we ignore that, Rodgers comes out way ahead of Luck.
* Second-year starterHTML Code:
First- or second-year starting rookie QBs by DVOA
Quarterback Year Team DVOA
Ben Roethlisberger 2004 PIT 34.5%
Tom Brady* 2001 NE 29.3%
Cam Newton 2011 CAR 16.7%
Daunte Culpepper* 2000 MIN 13.0%
Kerry Collins 1995 CAR -1.1%
Matt Leinart 2006 ARI -1.7%
Brett Favre** 1992 GB -2.0%
Drew Brees* 2002 SD -8.7%
Matt Ryan 2008 ATL -9.8%
Carson Palmer* 2004 CIN -12.1%
-- -- -- --
Robert Griffin 2012 WAS 4.2%
Andrew Luck 2012 IND 0.9%
Ryan Tannehill 2012 MIA -11.5%
Russell Wilson 2012 SEA -18.5%
Brandon Weeden 2012 CLE -26.9%
** Second-year starter. Includes one game in which Favre threw 39 passes off the bench.
Still, while it wasn't a great game for Luck, it was a good one, and that's getting to be routine for the rookie. His first game against Chicago was slightly below replacement level, but he has been well above that line every week since. He passed fellow rookie Robert Griffin III in passing DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, explained here) this week and ranks 14th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks. One month into his career, he is playing like an average starting passer, and has been much better than experienced veterans like Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler and Tony Romo.
Is this performance unusual? Yes, but it's not unprecedented. The table on the right shows a semi-complete list of the top quarterbacks as measured by DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) in the first four starts of their career before this season. This includes passing only, not rushing. It only includes players who were starting in their first or second season, so there's no Rodgers, Kurt Warner or Rivers. It also omits passers whose first four starts were not consecutive, which eliminates Michael Vick, Cade McNown and Steve McNair. Below them is a list of the five rookie quarterbacks who are starting this season, along with their DVOA figures:
(Note: Griffin ranks ahead of Luck in DVOA but not DYAR because DVOA is a rate stat, like completion percentage, while DYAR is a counting stat, like yards, and Luck has dropped back 31 more times than Griffin this season.)
Four games is an awfully small sample size for projecting a player's career, but those quarterbacks who have made the strongest first impressions have usually held up over the long haul. Matt Leinart flamed out quickly, and Cam Newton is regressing in his second season, but the other names on this list proved to be quality starters for the better part of a decade or more. That's good news for Griffin, Luck and even Ryan Tannehill. It's bad news for Russell Wilson and Brandon Weeden. Then again, Peyton Manning's DVOA after four starts was minus-20.0 percent, and he turned out OK in the long run.
WEEK 5 DYAR BEST AND WORST
DYAR is Football Outsiders' proprietary metric that measures performance on every play against expected performance for that situation. For a deeper explanation and a full breakdown of the numbers, visit Football Outsiders.
Obviously, it's far too early to project what Luck is going to do over the next 10 years. What we can say now is that he's definitely ahead of the curve for quarterbacks at this stage of his career, and that the Luck-versus-Griffin race for rookie of the year is going to rage for 16 games.HTML Code:
QB | RB | WR/TE
Player Team DYAR
Eli Manning NYG 188
Alex Smith SF 168
Peyton Manning DEN 126
Drew Brees NO 89
Tom Brady NE 89
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 84
Jay Cutler CHI 63
Ryan Tannehill MIA 53
Aaron Rodgers GB 52
Andrew Luck IND 51
Player Team DYAR
Blaine Gabbert JAC -146
Cam Newton CAR -85
Joe Flacco BAL -75
Matt Cassel KC -63
Kirk Cousins WAS -57
Three surprising players
QB: Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Smith completed 18 of 24 passes for 303 yards and three touchdowns against Buffalo, with no sacks or interceptions. It was the third 300-yard game of his career and the third time he has thrown for three scores without a turnover. Plus, he set career highs with 12.6 yards per pass and a near-perfect QBR of 99.2. At various times against Buffalo, Smith completed four passes in a row for 85 yards, four passes in a row for 95 yards, three passes in a row for 29 yards, and five passes in a row for 80 yards.
RB: Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots
Ridley's day against Denver was mildly surprising (28 carries for 151 yards), but not as surprising as the polar shift in football philosophy that has overcome the New England offense. The Patriots lead the league with 185 rushes. They were 17th in that category in 2011, though that was something of a fluke. Before that, they had ranked in the top 10 for five years in a row. Ridley was a model of consistency Sunday, with only one run going for fewer than 2 yards, and 12 runs of 5 yards or more.
WR/TE: Reggie Wayne, Colts
When Wayne re-signed with Indianapolis this offseason, it seemed an odd match for both player and team. The Colts figured to get more benefit by finding a younger receiver to be the Marvin Harrison or, well, Wayne to Luck's Manning, while Wayne's best shot at landing another Super Bowl ring in the twilight of his career seemed to be elsewhere. Wayne decided to stick around, though, and it's hard to imagine where Indianapolis would be without him. He leads the club with 36 catches and 506 yards; no other player on the team has even half that total in either category. Wayne caught 13 passes in 20 targets for 212 yards against Green Bay, a personal best for yardage. Like his quarterback, Wayne got off to something of a slow start, but finished strong. Each of the last five passes thrown to him was caught for a first down -- one for a touchdown -- for a total of 64 yards.
Two missed FG from a very good kicker
A missed attempt at a two point play
A bad call of a helmet to helmet hit against our QB that was only a very good hit
It took the best day of Reggie Wayne's career
A break down and loss of a play before the final kick
I am willing to give credit to the Colts for all of these things but I also think Green Bay deserves a lot of blame for this loss....:cool: ...
Missed FG from a very good kicker
A missed attempt at a two point play
A bad no-call of Woodson tackling Wayne in the endzone
A breakdown of the defense losing Cobb for the big reception on their final drive.
Similar to just about any other game, each team has breakdowns, missed opportunities, bad calls, and bad plays. Green Bay had injuries? Well the Colts had injuries.
Also, in 2010, Reggie had games of 15 rec for 196 yds and 14 rec for 200 yds and 1 TD and the Colts lost both of those games.
But thanks for being willing to give credit to the Colts...lol
Best comment I heard from a Packer fan walking out of the stadium on Sunday, someone goes, REGGIE REGGIE REGGIE. Packer fan turns around and says, "If you didn't have Reggie Wayne today you wouldn't have won the game." No **** sherlock.
So the troll provides the whopping and unheard of conclusion that beating a team involves that team making some mistakes. No **** Sherlock.
FACT: OlButt predicted the Colts to start 0-8 and not be remotely competitive this year. The Colts already have as many wins as last season and have beaten two good teams.
FACT: OlButt coronated RGIII as by far the better QB. After five weeks, the Redskins are 2-3 and WINLESS at home with two wins over crappy 1-4 teams. RGIII already got the first of what will be many concussions with his reckless style of play. Meanwhile, Luck has been at his best in the clutch and is #4 in the league in QBR, ahead of Tom Brady.
Complete crap. Luck is getting hit more often and harder than RGIII. RGIII still has a QB rating over 100. Luck is in the 70s. RGIII is well on the way to being rookie of the Year. Luck, not so much. What QBR are you looking at? The regular rating has RGIII way ahead of Luck. The Colts have played three of their four games at home. Lets see how they do on the road against a struggling NY Jets team...... RGIII will play well in the toughest division in football. Luck may be in the softest division and he will have enough problems trying to win there......:cool: ...
Olblu you know they record hits on a qb that don't result in sacks right? Rg3 has been hit more often than luck so let's not dramatize a flat out lie.