It just can't help but think the Colts are just going to utilize the system, and the lowered expectations,and use this season more as a learning experience and make winning something less than the #1 goal. I don't think anyone's job will be on the line due to the W-L record. We very well could be better, yet throw away at a chance at a win or two by making moments into teaching moments rather than using an opportunity to eek out a win. We might punt when keeping the offense on the field with a slim lead (or within a score of the lead) might be the best chance for a win... but instead the coach will want the defense out there to do what they are supposed to do, even if we haven't stopped them all day.
OTOH, maybe we run on 4th and inches even though we've been pitiful on the ground all game long and have only managed to stay in the game via the air... because the lesson to be learned is if you can't grind out a few feet with your running game then you don't deserve to win. In a season where wins matter maybe you go ahead and accept the running game isn't happening and throw on a 4th down play... but when wins don't matter- let the team dig down and try and execute in a real game situation.
At the end of the day the coaches get to do some coaching and get some game film to dissect and teach with, and one step closer to another high draft pick in a season that might not have much else but a 'wait until next year' vibe anyway.
Of course, start the season with that plan and win a few games out of the gate and then you have to rethink your long term strategy a bit.
I think 4-6 range of Ws is most likely. To get toward the 6 end or even more (which would be completely overachieving) you'd have to have the defense really respond well to the new system and the O-line come together to the extent that the running game is consistently decent. With a rookie QB - anointed or not - you have to ease the pressure and expectation through those other areas. Improved special teams is another phase that could help the wins trend upward, but it's all a major if.