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Why I'm optimistic?

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  • #1

    Why I'm optimistic?

    Yes, from the author of "This Team is Built for the Regular Season"... From the guy that for several years in a row predicted the fewest number of Pacers wins in the annual preseason thread (and was still too optimistic most of those years)... From the guy who basically said, "thing change, that's the way I live my life now" during the Jim O'Brien era and moved on to other things... From a guy that would read Bill Benner's Mr. Optimist/ Mr. Pessimist columns and ALWAYS identify with the pessimest:

    Here are the reasons I'm optimistic about this team:

    1. TEAM. This is not a "superstar" model. The Pacers play team basketball at both ends of the court. They don't have role players, they have basketball players accepting a role in the team. (There's a huge difference in those two definitions.)

    Let's illustrate. We have eight playoff wins so far. In our "team" model, our best players in each game have been:

    Game 1/ Atlanta - Paul George, triple-double. (Even though his shooting slump continued through that game.)
    Game 2/ Atlanta - our starting backcourt combines to go 18-33 with 11 rebounds and six steals in short minutes because the game was in-hand.
    Game 5/ Atlanta - David West has a tremendous game, especially in the second half, and Paul George is remarkably effecient with 21/10/5 on only 8 FGAs.
    Game 6/ @ Atlanta - when its time to step on their throats, David, Roy and Hill combine for 59 of our 81 as we stop a long losing streak in ATL.

    Game 1/ @ New York - Roy's defense sets the tone for the series, and a surprise showing from DJ Augustin gives us enough offense to win in the Garden.
    Game 3/ New York - Hibbert.
    Game 4/ New York - Hill.
    Game 6/ New York - on a HUGE stage, Lance Stephenson shows why Larry Bird always believed in him.

    2. Quality vs. depth

    One of my pet peeves, and one of the focus points of "This team is built for the regular season" was our previous management's (and coach's) infatuation with depth over quality. Sure, our seventh and eighth man made contributions, but we lost a lot of playoff series from 1994-2005 because our core just wasn't good enough.

    Fast foward to 2012. Our starting five competes effectively with Miami's much-hyped lineup, but when we go to the bench (against their starters) it gets ugly. Now in 2013 I think we have the most complete starting five in basketball. Sure, those three guys in Miami's Big Three are better than our top three. But this isn't a 3-on-3 game. Vogel has embraced it this year, his biggest improvement from last year to this season, and I'm looking forward to seeing how this plays out.

    In the playoffs, what matters is whether your best players are good enough to win games, not depth. While I don't completely buy into the idea that the team with the best individual player will win the series, because I don't think "quality" is limited to one player in a team game, it really is all about quality.

    3. Mental toughness

    Roy Hibbert said it in the post-game conference the other night when all five starters appeared together. The culture of this team changed the moment David West walked in the door. And this team has embraced what David has been teaching them. If our biggest concern is whether Lance flexes a little bit too much during the biggest game of his life, then David's influence is all over this team. Just look at how much more mature they are (especially in the fourth quarter) vs. young immature team wearing similar uniforms against Chicago a couple of years ago.

    4. A traditional center/ lineup

    No need for smallball. No gimmick lineups. And Roy in particular has progressed to the point that even the so-called bad matchups (perimeter-oriented C's/ PF's) get exploited at our end of the court. There was a time that an opponent's lineup shift to a smaller lineup would compel Frank to match down. Now we can stick with our guys and make opponents pay for going small. Now the biggest test of this is Miami, where pansy-wimp Chris Bosh will try to hid on the perimeter (and perhaps behind the arc.) He may hit some shots out there, and so be it because those are shots he's taking away from James and Wade. But at the other end, Roy and or David will eat him alive.

    5. Stepping on throats

    Two impressive closeout wins and while we did lose a closeout game in NYC there were extenuating circumstances. This team has been learning how to finish the job. And let's be honest, it look Reggie-Mr. Clutch-Miller quite a while to learn how to do that. What I'm getting at is, these guys learn fast.

    6. The atmosphere at the Fieldhouse

    Looking forward to Jay's_Daughter@Section222's first conference finals games in the house. Now if James plays a superhuman game like he did in Game #4 last year, then I don't know what to say. Quality matters and his game itself is tremendous. But I just don't think this Pacers team is going to lose at home to anybody. I was stuck in Chicagoland for Game #6 (wasn't happy about it, but that's an OT rant), and just loved the way the crowd helped carry the team through the last five minutes. To those that were there... well, I'm jealous. (stupid choir concert scheduled for the same time as tipoff. who does that?...)

    7. Team defense

    It is a chicken and egg question, but it doesn't matter. Is Paul George or Roy Hibbert the better individual defender? Who gives a ? Team defense is what matters, and Paul and Roy are each better because of each other. And while he's not a stellar individual defender, David West makes the team defense better as he calls out assignments and talks to his teammates. Same for George Hill. And just as our substitutions rotations, in my opinion, were born of the necessity to deal with Miami in the playoffs, so was our defense. Where our defense is strongest is a direct matchup to Miami's strengths. Assuming Roy is allowed verticality, our ability to defend both the rim (from slashers) and the three point line are direct responses to Miami's preferred version of inside out, which is not based on post play but on wings that get into the paint and force the defense to shift. Its really similar to the old Houston Rockets offense from 20 years ago, except Hakeem was stationary while James and Wade are on the move.

    8. Paul George's development

    What do I love about Paul? Rebounding and defense. He's still a bad-to-streaky shooter. His handles are awful. And within a month, he's gone from a 17-18 game at the line to an underwhelming 66-93 for the playoffs (49-75 since Game #1, under 70%; 27-45 -- 60% -- in the NYK series). But he attacks the glass, is committed to team defense, and finds ways to help the team even though I don't expect anything from him on offense. And that's what gives us patience to wait for those occasional brilliant gems that he can deliver on offense. If he viewed himself primarily as an offensive players, and if his defensive and rebounding efforts were dependent on his offensive production (which is true for so many wings around the league inlcuding most of the other wings that wear blue and gold), he'd be driving us nuts. But his willingness to embrace the "dirty work" makes him so valuable to our team, even if he is/ should be no higher than the fourth option in the offense.

    In summary,
    Maybe I'm tired of hearing ESPN and their bozos. But I'm on board with Coach Vogel. This is our series to win or lose. Its about whether or not we maximize our strengths in the next round. If we do the above things well, as a team, I expect us to win the series. If we don't do those things well (including, if Miami takes them away from us), then it will be a struggle. Neither team is going to sweep the other, and neither team is likely to lose at home. We're going to have steal some games down there.

    And I think we've finally moved beyond the mindboggling team that came back from California and fell in love with the three-point shot and individual play. We're back to playing solid team ball, inside-out (I don't mind the three-point shot after the ball has been worked inside and the defense is on the move). As long as our five main guys are healthy and generally on the court together, we're going to be in good shape.

    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: Why I'm optimistic?

    Great stuff, ChiJ.

    I just feel that this playoff team is much better than last year's. West and Hill now have been here for two years, so this unit is very comfortable with one another, whereas last year they were in their first season together. Hibbert is even better on D, West has been a better player all season, PG has exploded, Lance is a menace out there, and Hill has been the starter for the entire season while kicking his game up a notch. Plus this group is bound to have way more confidence than last year's club. Last year's team had only beaten a Howard-less Orlando team when they played Miami, while this year's team beat a solid Hawks team and extremely hyped NY team. There's no doubt that eliminating good teams has kicked their confidence up a notch.

    We just have to find a way to replicate the formula against NY and steal one of the first two in Miami like last year. That's the only way we can win the series. It's just way too hard to beat a team 4 out of 5 times if you fall into that deadly 0-2 hole. As Pacer fans, we've seen the team fall down in that 0-2 hole against good teams too many times (94 NY, 95 ORL, 98 CHI, 00 LAL). If we come back to Indy 1-1, then I think we'll have a decent shot at making it 3-1. Heck, it took an out of this world performance from Lebron and Wade to prevent us from doing it last year.

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: Why I'm optimistic?

      The pacers can beat the Heat. I feel like they are gonna win every game at home. On the road they just can't panic when the Heat make their runs.

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: Why I'm optimistic?

        Originally posted by Sollozzo View Post
        As Pacer fans, we've seen the team fall down in that 0-2 hole against good teams too many times (94 NY, 95 ORL, 98 CHI, 00 LAL). If we come back to Indy 1-1, then I think we'll have a decent shot at making it 3-1. Heck, it took an out of this world performance from Lebron and Wade to prevent us from doing it last year.
        Interesting comment.

        Does anybody know the answer to this: what's our NBA-franchise record in Game #5 when we're up 3-1?

        I tried to recall those in my head, and I'm not sure we've won a series 4-1. Maybe there are some first-round wins that were 4-1, but I can't recall any in the second/ third rounds.

        It seems to me that being up 3-1 is still a path to a long (six or seven game) series, but still better than being 2-2.
        Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
        Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
        Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
        Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
        And life itself, rushing over me
        Life itself, the wind in black elms,
        Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: Why I'm optimistic?

          Up 3-1 the series might still be long but it's ours, eventually. In another thread I think we recapped that in the NBA era we are something like 8-1 in winning a series after being up 3-1, vs. 4-5 (I think) after being tied 2-2.

          Those numbers seem about right because my analogy was that being 3-1 over 2-2 is like having Reggie shooting a free throw with your life depending on it (~90%) vs. Shaq shooting a free throw with your life depending on it (~50%).
          The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!).

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: Why I'm optimistic?

            Is there a team in recent memory that has had an easier road to the Conference Finals than Miami? I can't think of one. That Bucks team was pathetic and the Bulls fought as hard as they could, but were severely undermanned. The Rose and Rondo injuries really watered down the East this year. You have to think that Boston would have been a higher seed if Rondo didn't go down, and maybe they would have faced the Heat in the previous round and fought them hard like last year. On the flip side, in the 2011 ECF's, the Heat did play a completely healthy 62 win Chicago team with the MVP Rose, and they waxed them in 5 games. So who knows?

            All I'm saying is that the Pacers will be far superior to the two cupcakes that Miami has played so far. Chicago caught them napping in Game 1, but outside of that they've been in cruise control all postseason. We will play them like no one has.
            Last edited by Sollozzo; 05-21-2013, 03:13 PM.

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: Why I'm optimistic?

              I wish I was that optimistic. I hate to say this, but we might have the best gameplan ever devised in the history of the NBA and the players might execute the gameplan perfectly. Pacers might play as well as they are capable of playing in a game or two in this series. The problem is I believe it is going to take the Pacers playing as well as they possibly can to win in Miami, and even at home we need to play almost as well as we are capable. And we can't do that 4 times. (by the way I don't think the pacers have reached this level in any of the first 12 playoff games they have played so far)

              The problem is the Heat are just better, and in a best of 7, the better team almost always wins.

              Also keep in mind the Heat play up to the competition, so I wouldn't really put any stock into whether the Bucks or Bulls were the worst playoff teams ever, the Heat will play up to us if they need to.

              I just don't see how the pacers can win 4 games unless something unusual happens - injury. Something crazy - although I can't see what else could happen.

              I am just trying to think back to prior ECF the Pacers have been in. I have less confidence that we can win this ECF than any of the previous 6. 1998 comes to mind, but that wasn't the best Bulls team and that pacers team was better than this pacers team.

              I think pacers need to be up 3-1 in this series and need to win game #1 tomorrow night. if they do that, they might have a better than 50/50 chance.

              I guess I just think the Heat are really good. Lebron is in his exact prime. Jordan in 1998 was beyond his prime. I have always said the best player the Pacers have ever played in a playoff series was Shaq in the 2000 Finals - he was better in 2000 than Michael was in 1998. I think Lebron is at the Shaq 2000 level as far as positively impacting the game.

              pacers might play a great series - and still lose 4-2
              Last edited by Unclebuck; 05-21-2013, 03:59 PM.

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: Why I'm optimistic?

                I don't think the argument that "the Heat are just better" is nearly as valid as the argument that "Lebron is just better". Everyone else fills their role, but Wade at 75% effectiveness and Bosh playing timid and launching jumpshots all day do not IMO contribute much to any talent gap. Their bench is one thing that could be "just better" than ours if they keep getting more from Norris Cole, Battier, and especially the Birdman than we get from DJ, Sam, Ian, and Tyler.

                It will be harder to win any of the games that are tied with 5 minutes left, because no matter how well Paul George can defend him, Lebron will make plays to win. We need to have a healthy cushion to survive what Lebron will give them when they are desperate.
                The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!).

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: Why I'm optimistic?

                  Originally posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
                  It will be harder to win any of the games that are tied with 5 minutes left, because no matter how well Paul George can defend him, Lebron will make plays to win. We need to have a healthy cushion to survive what Lebron will give them when they are desperate.


                  That's something that we've generally been good at doing this season - pushing the lead at the five minute mark so that it doesn't come down to being a close game.

                  I'm still a bit confuzzled about the low number of close (2 possessions or less) playoff games we've played out of a dozen games this year. Really there is only one of those, Game #6 vs. NYK.

                  Back in the day, with a team that could never get that separation at the five minute mark, it seemed every game came down to Reggie's heroics.

                  We still haven't needed to find out who's ready to step up into the "hero" role.

                  Our closest game is 7 points, which is three possessions and that's essentially a blowout by NBA playoff standards. Our average margin of victory is 12+ points, and our average margin of defeat is -17 with two defeats of more than 20 points each and the closest game we've lost was the ten-point loss in game #5.

                  Yes, we need a healthy cushion against Miami, San Antonio, and Memphis. Its true for any possible remaining playoff opponent. And this team has shown so far (say what you want about the competition) that they understand that.
                  Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
                  Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
                  Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
                  Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
                  And life itself, rushing over me
                  Life itself, the wind in black elms,
                  Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: Why I'm optimistic?

                    Originally posted by ChicagoJ View Post
                    That's something that we've generally been good at doing this season - pushing the lead at the five minute mark so that it doesn't come down to being a close game.

                    I'm still a bit confuzzled about the low number of close (2 possessions or less) playoff games we've played out of a dozen games this year. Really there is only one of those, Game #6 vs. NYK.

                    Back in the day, with a team that could never get that separation at the five minute mark, it seemed every game came down to Reggie's heroics.

                    We still haven't needed to find out who's ready to step up into the "hero" role.

                    Our closest game is 7 points, which is three possessions and that's essentially a blowout by NBA playoff standards. Our average margin of victory is 12+ points, and our average margin of defeat is -17 with two defeats of more than 20 points each and the closest game we've lost was the ten-point loss in game #5.

                    Yes, we need a healthy cushion against Miami, San Antonio, and Memphis. Its true for any possible remaining playoff opponent. And this team has shown so far (say what you want about the competition) that they understand that.
                    I would say that is because when this team is playing their best they are better than Miami, but they are young and inconsistent.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Why I'm optimistic?

                      Mentioned everything I have thought of so far before this series. Great stuff man!
                      Smothered Chicken!

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: Why I'm optimistic?

                        Thanks J

                        In addition to our team D being better than last seasons series with the Heat, Wade is not 100%.

                        That might be enough to make this series a classic. Like I said in another thread.... might not be this season but the writing is on the wall. Miami's days are numbered.

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                        • #13
                          Re: Why I'm optimistic?

                          Originally posted by ChicagoJ View Post
                          Looking forward to Jay's_Daughter@Section222's first conference finals games in the house. Now if James plays a superhuman game like he did in Game #4 last year, then I don't know what to say. Quality matters and his game itself is tremendous. But I just don't think this Pacers team is going to lose at home to anybody.
                          IMHO....there isn't anything that you have to say when an Elite Level Player like LeDecision or MJ ( in years past ) plays at a "superhuman" level....there's very little that any Team can do but to do their best and just play their game.

                          To me, the best I can hope for if LeDecision does go all "superhuman" on the Pacers is that even if they end up losing such a game....what matters to me is that they didn't do it lying down, where they fought and clawed for every inch of ground on the proverbial "field".
                          Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Why I'm optimistic?

                            We just need Gerald to earn his pay...Get him out there and slip his foot under Lebum from behind as he is coming down from a jump shot, just like Lebum did to Danny in last years playoff series, payback is a biotch!!!!
                            Garbage players get 1st round picks, (WTF)! All of the NBA must hate the Pacers! LOL

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                            • #15
                              Re: Why I'm optimistic?

                              I wish we had Jeff Foster on the roster just so he could come in and dish out some physical hard fouls like he did two years ago against Rose and the Bulls. He really got under Rose's skin.

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