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View Full Version : Pacer's "we could've had him!"



ensergio
02-24-2013, 02:48 PM
I saw this exercise in a Jazz's Forum. I will copy the explanation:

"For each year I'm going to look at the player(s) the team drafted in the first round and the four players immediately after and then rank how the team did. I think it's fair to limit the analysis to five picks rather than cherry picking the one guy who went later in the draft and saying "we could've had him!""

2000
27. Primoz Brezec
28. Erick Barkley
29. Mark Madsen
30. Marko Jaric
31. Dan Langhi

Conclusion: Weak group.

2001
27. Jamaal Tinsley
28. Tony Parker
30. Trenton Hassell
31. Gilbert Arenas
32. Omar Cook

Conclusion: Tinsley was solid. Parker is obviously the better player.

2002
14. Frederick Jones
15. Bostjan Nachbar
16. Jiri Welsch
17. Juan Dixon
18. Curtis Borchardt

Conclusion: Jones was the better choice.

2003
49. James Jones
50. Paccelis Morlende
51. Kyle Korver
52. Remon Van de Hare
53. Tommy Smith

Conclusion: We could have had Korver and doesn't have him raining threes on us.

2004
29. David Harrison
30. Anderson Varejao
31. Jackson Vroman
32. Peter John Ramos
33. Lionel Chalmers

Conclusion: Varejao was the pick then.

2005
17. Danny Granger
18. Gerald Green
19. Hakim Warrick
20. Julius Hodge
21. Nate Robinson

Conclusion: A+

2006
17. Shawne Williams
18. Oleksiy Pecherov
19. Quincy Douby
20. Renaldo Balkman
21. Rajon Rondo

Conclusion: Rondo :cry:

2007
No pick

2008 (Two picks)
13. Brandon Rush
14. Anthony Randolph
15. Robin Lopez
16. Marreese Speights
17. Roy Hibbert
18. JaVale McGee
19. J.J. Hickson
20. Alexis Ajinca
21. Ryan Anderson

Conclusion: Solid duo.

2009

13. Tyler Hansbrough
14. Earl Clark
15. Austin Daye
16. James Johnson
17. Jrue Holiday

Conclusion: S. Williams over Rondo and Hansbrough over Holiday.

2010

10. Paul George
11. Cole Aldrich
12. Xavier Henry
13. Ed Davis
14. Patrick Patterson

Conclusion: Thank heaven.

2011
No pick

2012
26. Miles Plumlee
27. Arnett Moultrie
28. Perry Jones III
29. Marquis Teague
30. Festus Ezeli

Conclusion: I had taken Teague.

Doddage
02-24-2013, 02:53 PM
Still frustrated we picked Hansbrough over Holiday. Probably Bird's biggest blunder. Nothing against Tyler, but even then Holiday had the talent and upside to be a top 10 pick and for some reason he slipped to 17. The idea that we could have had Holiday as the PG of this group upsets me.

Steagles
02-24-2013, 02:58 PM
I'd've picked Teague first, but if they were set on drafting a center, I would've gone for Festus Ezeli from Vanderbilt


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Stuckey7370
02-24-2013, 03:00 PM
It's easy to say I'd rather have someone else, but looking at the end product, I'd rather have PG. Rondo would have been nice, but who knows if he would have developed like he did playing with Troy Murphy.

That being said, it's pretty cool to see who gets drafted around each other and re pick using hindsight.

cgg
02-24-2013, 03:01 PM
Jrue Holiday 51.4% TS% 17.7 TO%
George Hill 55.8% TS% 11.7% TO%

Tyler Hansbrough 53.2% TS% 11.4% TO%

I don't think people would like Jrue Holiday that much if they watched him more. Unless they like their point guard to turn the ball over a lot and score less efficiently than Tyler Hansbrough.

ejwallace
02-24-2013, 03:02 PM
You mean we were only 1 pick away from drafting Green over Granger.....I think I just vomited a bit....

PR07
02-24-2013, 03:02 PM
If we get Rondo, maybe we have a better record and never end up with Paul George. It's easy to say, "Man, if we had Rondo to this core. We'd be so much better." However, I think it would've changed our history all together.

cgg
02-24-2013, 03:07 PM
If we get Rondo, maybe we have a better record and never end up with Paul George. It's easy to say, "Man, if we had Rondo to this core. We'd be so much better." However, I think it would've changed our history all together.

Paying Rondo would have changed the off season that we signed West too.

It's also possible that they were looking for the same things and using the same logic when they drafted Williams and PG.

It's hard to complain. We've done pretty well.

ensergio
02-24-2013, 03:22 PM
If we get Rondo, maybe we have a better record and never end up with Paul George. It's easy to say, "Man, if we had Rondo to this core. We'd be so much better." However, I think it would've changed our history all together.

I do agree. However we can see how good were the picks.

Lance George
02-24-2013, 03:25 PM
We've not made the absolutely best pick every year, no, but I'd defend our recent draft history (2005-) over anyone in the league's. Granger, George, and Hibbert were all brilliant picks, Hansbrough and Rush were solid, and while Kawhi Leonard looks good, landing George Hill for pick 17 was superb value.

The only huge dud was Shawne Williams. Even the 2007 1st we moved in the Al Harrington deal wasn't too bad, as that draft, bar a small handful of players (most of whom were gone by the time our 11th pick was up) was atrocious (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_NBA_Draft).

rexnom
02-24-2013, 03:38 PM
You mean we were only 1 pick away from drafting Green over Granger.....I think I just vomited a bit....
There's been more than one thread in the past about whether we made the right call or not. Not many since 2008 though.

PacerPenguins
02-24-2013, 03:47 PM
yet, if we drafted certain players each year..... our outlook on the draft would be different... what if jrue holiday took us to the playoff his rookie year..... no Paul George then..... all happens for a reason

Ace E.Anderson
02-24-2013, 03:51 PM
Jrue Holiday 51.4% TS% 17.7 TO%
George Hill 55.8% TS% 11.7% TO%

Tyler Hansbrough 53.2% TS% 11.4% TO%

I don't think people would like Jrue Holiday that much if they watched him more. Unless they like their point guard to turn the ball over a lot and score less efficiently than Tyler Hansbrough.

Been saying this for a while. Holiday is putting up good numbers on a bad team, but his numbers aren't even THAT much better than Hill's.

I think our drafting has been pretty good, ESP 2nd round pick history (James Jones, Lance, OJ)

Peck
02-24-2013, 03:59 PM
What threads like this do for me is more appreciate that our scouting department and decision makers are actually very good.

cgg
02-24-2013, 04:02 PM
Been saying this for a while. Holiday is putting up good numbers on a bad team, but his numbers aren't even THAT much better than Hill's.

I think our drafting has been pretty good, ESP 2nd round pick history (James Jones, Lance, OJ)

I don't agree that 19 points on 17 shots with 8.8 asst and 4 turnovers a game is better than 14.6 points on 11.9 shots 4.9 asst 1.8 turnovers

neosmndrew
02-24-2013, 04:06 PM
While basically anyone would have been a better pick than Williams, you gotta remember that Rondo developed around 3 HoF players. I don't buy he would have been the player he is if he developed in Indiana.

Naptown_Seth
02-24-2013, 04:48 PM
Still frustrated we picked Hansbrough over Holiday. Probably Bird's biggest blunder. Nothing against Tyler, but even then Holiday had the talent and upside to be a top 10 pick and for some reason he slipped to 17. The idea that we could have had Holiday as the PG of this group upsets me.

Worse given the rumor that the Bulls wanted that spot and would trade 19 and 26 to get it. Rumor was for Gerald Henderson at first, but he went and it lingered. The other rumor was Pacers were afraid to do it because they were certain Chicago would take Hans with it and "screw them". Holiday + Blair/Sam Young/Buddinger...makes me sad. I don't think they would have gone for Taj and I wouldn't have at the time, but I was advocating the move for those other guys at the time, not as hindsight. So I was very frustrated.

Naptown_Seth
02-24-2013, 04:51 PM
I don't agree that 19 points on 17 shots with 8.8 asst and 4 turnovers a game is better than 14.6 points on 11.9 shots 4.9 asst 1.8 turnovers
Sure. But the point with Holiday is that then you don't have to trade Troy for Collison, but instead use that asset for something else. Or you do make that trade and let Holiday start, and then you keep Leonard or trade for something else.

More quality assets or players is always better.

MillerTime
02-24-2013, 05:41 PM
Everyday I thank the Jazz for taking Gordan Hayward

rexnom
02-24-2013, 06:20 PM
Sure. But the point with Holiday is that then you don't have to trade Troy for Collison, but instead use that asset for something else. Or you do make that trade and let Holiday start, and then you keep Leonard or trade for something else.

More quality assets or players is always better.
Dude. We can't be perfect. We maximized the Troy and Leonard assets. I don't think you can hope for much else.

Nuntius
02-24-2013, 06:27 PM
Rondo and Holiday are great but I sincerely think that Hill is exactly the type of PG that we need.

I wasn't as sold on him last year but I have been extremely happy with him so far :D

cgg
02-24-2013, 06:28 PM
Rondo and Holiday are great but I sincerely think that Hill is exactly the type of PG that we need.

I wasn't as sold on him last year but I have been extremely happy with him so far :D

I don't think that Holiday is great at all.

BornReady
02-24-2013, 07:05 PM
We could have had Curtis Borchardt and Paccelis Morlende??? Wow I QUIT!!!!!

SkipperZ
02-24-2013, 08:43 PM
i think the holiday hate is just silly. hes like 22 years old. hes already a special player he'll learn to get his TO's down and if anything playing on a bad team makes his TO numbers worse. someone said 19 points on 17 shots isnt great, but paul george gets 17 points on like 15.5 shots. Jrue holiday shoulders the offensive load as a point guard and still shoots it at 45%.

not to mention hes actually a solid defender which doesnt show up in the numbers.

i like george hill, and i even will admit tylers doing better this year than i ever thought he would be capable of (i didnt expect much from him) but jrue holiday wouldve make this team a legitimate favorite in the east for years to come in my opinion. the tyler over jrue pick imo was absolutely a huge blunder, mostly because jrue holiday was such an obvious pick at the time (we needed a pg then, and the kid couldve gone top 6 or 7 that year)

cgg
02-24-2013, 09:10 PM
I don't hate Holiday but he is not special. He's in his 4th year so I think it's acceptable to judge him. Last year he had a usage rate similar to Hill and had less assists and more turnovers and less assists. His defense is solid, and Synergy numbers do back it up. They'd probably be better with Bynum too.

Paul George has 53.7% TS% for the year and something like 55% since his 0 point game.

Holiday's 51.4 just isn't good. It would be the 9th most efficient on our team, and once Danny has a decent sample size that will drop to 10th.

15th parallel
02-24-2013, 09:35 PM
As much as you call it a blunder, but picking Tyler over Jrue actually gave way for the Pacers to pick PG and Lance. Tyler played well enough with his limited time (plus injury) in his rookie year that the next year they considered drafting young wing players instead of a big man. Plus I don't know if Troy would've been traded if it happened.

Don't get me wrong, Jrue is a better player than Tyler right now, and a young talent that can develop further like PG and Lance. But Tyler is not a bad pick IMO. People forgot that he was the spark that made the Pacers reach the playoffs for the first time in years.

Heisenberg
02-24-2013, 09:56 PM
how do we not draft a guy named Paccelis?

wintermute
02-25-2013, 03:45 AM
I don't hate Holiday but he is not special. He's in his 4th year so I think it's acceptable to judge him. Last year he had a usage rate similar to Hill and had less assists and more turnovers and less assists. His defense is solid, and Synergy numbers do back it up. They'd probably be better with Bynum too.

Paul George has 53.7% TS% for the year and something like 55% since his 0 point game.

Holiday's 51.4 just isn't good. It would be the 9th most efficient on our team, and once Danny has a decent sample size that will drop to 10th.

The thing with Holiday is that looking at his raw stats (19 ppg, 9 apg), you'd think he's a superstar pg, but he's really not.

I do think he'll have better efficiency when he has better players around (e.g. Bynum) but right now he's being asked to do too much for a pretty bad Sixers team. I still rate him higher than Hill (mainly because of age and upside) but taking his upcoming contract into account, swapping him for Hill doesn't seem like much of a team upgrade.

wintermute
02-25-2013, 04:03 AM
It's always better to draft well of course, but there are diminishing returns. If you draft too well, too often, like the Thunder did, you end up having to give away some talent (Harden) to stay under the luxury tax. Of course, it's not like they were left empty handed (they still have a guaranteed lotto pick and J. Lamb to show for their drafting acumen) but as I said, diminishing returns.

It's why Dumars can draft Darko and still end up with a championship. Ditto for Ainge (drafted Marcus Banks in the lotto, traded a lotto pick for Telfair). Memphis had a ton of atrocious moves (Thabeet at #2, etc) but still ended up with a strong team.

Bottomline is: drafting well does not mean drafting perfectly. It's how you put the team together that counts more.