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View Full Version : Can we catch Miami for the #1 seed



kent beckley
02-07-2013, 11:38 AM
Let's look at the standings. Currently we are at:

Miami
New York 1.5 GB
Indiana 3 GB
Chicago 4 GB


There are two different, in my opinion better, ways to look at the standings though. The first is to take road wins minus home losses:

Miami
Indiana 1 GB
New York 3 GB
Chicago 6 GB

This looks much better, but we are still behind.

The final way would be to look at strength of schedule for the remaining games. Assuming that all current playoff teams represent a loss, and non-playoff teams represent a win:

Miami
New York 5 GB
Indiana 5 GB
Chicago 6 GB

This is not good.

Looking at these numbers, we have a really good chance at grabbing the #2 seed away from New York and holding Chicago off. But the #1 seed does not appear to be in reach. We would have to play outstanding these last 2 months, and also receive quite a bit of help from Miami.

Thought this might be interesting.

BRushWithDeath
02-07-2013, 11:51 AM
It's way too early to really be worrying to much about seeding but the most important thing is not being the 1 seed necessarily, but just being on the opposite side of the bracket from Miami. We do not want to draw them in round 2 again.

Miami seems to be thoroughly coasting in my opinion so I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that any of New York, Indiana, Chicago, or Brooklyn catch them. I also don't think it matters much.

MillerTime
02-07-2013, 11:51 AM
Realistically probably not.

If we can get our act together and win games on the road, perhaps we can catch NY

vnzla81
02-07-2013, 11:55 AM
The #1 seed is probably going to face Boston in the 1st round, I rather stay in 3rd place.

Unclebuck
02-07-2013, 11:58 AM
You always want the #1 seed. That way you get home court advantage which is significant. Plus mthat means you have finished the season really strong. So yes we want the #1 seed.

The idea that we may not want the #1 seed because of who the first round opponent might be is silly

Sollozzo
02-07-2013, 11:58 AM
The #1 seed is probably going to face Boston in the 1st round, I rather stay in 3rd place.


I'll wager that Boston finishes higher than Milwaukee (they are tied now).

vnzla81
02-07-2013, 12:08 PM
You always want the #1 seed. That way you get home court advantage which is significant. Plus mthat means you have finished the season really strong. So yes we want the #1 seed.

The idea that we may not want the #1 seed because of who the first round opponent might be is silly


I remember Shaq talking about this and he said that it matters, I remember him talking about not wanting to face Sacramento(not sure what team) in the 1st or second round because they knew that team had the pieces to take them out so their strategy was to stay away from them.

Shaq even talked about not playing that hard in some games so they could have the matchup they wanted.

Pacergeek
02-07-2013, 12:13 PM
We have to get much better on the road to even think of the #1 seed. Cannot lose to the Orlando's of the NBA when we are at full strength

Unclebuck
02-07-2013, 12:13 PM
I remember Shaq talking about this and he said that it matters, I remember him talking about not wanting to face Sacramento(not sure what team) in the 1st or second round because they knew that team had the pieces to take them out so their strategy was to stay away from them.

Shaq even talked about not playing that hard in some games so they could have the matchup they wanted.


OK, so lets say it comes down to the last game of the regular season, if the pacers win they get the #1 seed and play the Celts, if they lose they get the number 2 seed and play the Bucks. Are you really suggesting we should lose that game. Even if we stipulate that the Bucks are a better matchup for us.

OK, so we lose that game and oops, we have to play a game 7 in Miami instead of Indianapolis, how stupid is that. And I would say that to Shaq's face.

billbradley
02-07-2013, 12:18 PM
I remember Shaq talking about this and he said that it matters, I remember him talking about not wanting to face Sacramento(not sure what team) in the 1st or second round because they knew that team had the pieces to take them out so their strategy was to stay away from them.

Shaq even talked about not playing that hard in some games so they could have the matchup they wanted.

Ha! That worked out well for everyone in the west tanking to play Dallas two years ago!

Pacergeek
02-07-2013, 12:20 PM
I am terrified of the officials and their big market bias. Boston, NY, Brooklyn, Miami, and Chicago could be dangerous with help from the referees. Boston in particular because of the Rajon Rondo storyline. NBA would love to spin that story how Boston is "playing for their leader". What if KG announces his retirement? We would really be screwed.

pacergod2
02-07-2013, 12:20 PM
I think we should be shooting for the two seed. With as good as we are at home, that could be the difference in a series. I just don't think anybody will come close to Miami's record. Their schedule should toughen up some since they are playing a lot of road games finally. But I think Spoelstra needs to really hone back the Three Muskedouches' minutes for them heading into the playoffs. He and Thibedeau are two of the more controversial coaches when it comes to resting players. I really think our depth helps us in this area and it will help us win a lot of games down the stretch when other teams are either making their push (tired) or are resting guys (not playing). I think being at home for a fourth game against the Knicks or Boston or Atlanta or Brooklyn or Chicago could really be the difference maker for us.

Strummer
02-07-2013, 12:20 PM
You always want the #1 seed. That way you get home court advantage which is significant. Plus mthat means you have finished the season really strong. So yes we want the #1 seed.

The idea that we may not want the #1 seed because of who the first round opponent might be is silly

Correct. A top 2 seed worrying about who their first round match up would be is pretty pathetic. That would be a team that doesn't have the confidence to win it all.

And to the OP: There's no reason we can't catch Miami. Yes we need them to lose some games but they haven't been dominating so far this year. We're playing our best ball of the season. I don't think they are. And that's why we've drawn closer recently. More of the same and we'll pass them.

vnzla81
02-07-2013, 12:22 PM
OK, so lets say it comes down to the last game of the regular season, if the pacers win they get the #1 seed and play the Celts, if they lose they get the number 2 seed and play the Bucks. Are you really suggesting we should lose that game. Even if we stipulate that the Bucks are a better matchup for us.

OK, so we lose that game and oops, we have to play a game 7 in Miami instead of Indianapolis, how stupid is that. And I would say that to Shaq's face.

Well some teams would rather play a second round 7 game away than don't play the game at all, if you have to choose between the Bucks and Boston of course you pick Milwaukee even if it means that you are playing a game 7 away in the future.

Unclebuck
02-07-2013, 12:32 PM
Well some teams would rather play a second round 7 game away than don't play the game at all, if you have to choose between the Bucks and Boston of course you pick Milwaukee even if it means that you are playing a game 7 away in the future.

I wonder how many agree with you.

Trader Joe
02-07-2013, 12:33 PM
I wonder how many agree with you.

I can't understand why you would not want home court throughout when you are as good at home as Indiana has been this season.

Hicks
02-07-2013, 12:36 PM
If our team is so weak as to be afraid of who they face at #8, then it doesn't matter if they're 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th, they're going to get beat sooner rather than later. Bring on all challengers.

vnzla81
02-07-2013, 12:46 PM
I wonder how many agree with you.

Nobody here would agree with me(of course) but is an strategy that teams use, I mean if the whole Lakers team was fine in doing this that means that Kobe and Phill were also OK with it.

By the way I don't expect the Pacers to ever have that choice anyway, Miami is not going anywhere.

Foul on Smits
02-07-2013, 12:46 PM
Realistically probably not.

If we can get our act together and win games on the road, perhaps we can catch NY

See i dont get this line of thought here. I've read other stuff about how we're like 4 games back in the loss column or something. So what? There's a ton of season left and Indiana is looking like a well-oiled machine right now. It's not out of the question that they erase a 3 game lead for the #1. If they stay within 3 games going into the last month of the season, who know? They are good enough for sure. 3 games is nothing. If it were 7 or something, ya. 3 though. Thats not a lot.

Phree Refill
02-07-2013, 01:00 PM
It's way too early to really be worrying to much about seeding but the most important thing is not being the 1 seed necessarily, but just being on the opposite side of the bracket from Miami. We do not want to draw them in round 2 again.

One way to assure this is to get the number 1 seed...... unless Miami suffers a catastrophic collapse and finishes 4th or 5th, the #1 seed assures no facing the Knicks/Heat till ECF.

Trader Joe
02-07-2013, 01:01 PM
We probably need to rip off like a 15 game winning streak to get the 1.

rexnom
02-07-2013, 01:07 PM
If Boston can beat us when we have home court advantage then we probably don't need to worry much about this whole "beating Miami" business.

Phree Refill
02-07-2013, 01:13 PM
Let's take a look at the numbers.

Miami is currently paced on a 57 win season with a .696 winning percentage. I would say that with the way they have played this year that is probably a pretty reasonable finish for them. Wins are not the important factor for us in catching them however. It's losses. Miami is sitting with 5 losses fewer than us. Winning 57 puts them at losing 25 on the season. We are currently at 19 losses. For us to have a legit shot at catching them for #1 seed that would mean we have to finish the season (starting from today) 26-6. If that happens, factoring in our current 5 game win streak would mean we finished the season 31-6. By far the hottest team in the NBA with maybe only San Antonio the exception. 26-6 from here on out doable? If Granger gives us what we hope he can then I would say its possible. But I'd be more comfortable saying we can finish around 22-10 or so which puts us neck and neck for #2 seed with New York.

Ace E.Anderson
02-07-2013, 01:16 PM
See i dont get this line of thought here. I've read other stuff about how we're like 4 games back in the loss column or something. So what? There's a ton of season left and Indiana is looking like a well-oiled machine right now. It's not out of the question that they erase a 3 game lead for the #1. If they stay within 3 games going into the last month of the season, who know? They are good enough for sure. 3 games is nothing. If it were 7 or something, ya. 3 though. Thats not a lot.

The Heat have played 4 less games than we have. If they continue their win %, they'll likely win 3 out of those 4 games. When you look at that, it makes us closer to 6 games back or so--once the number of games played evens out.

Then you have to take into consideration that the Heat are at the very least going to continue to play .650-.700 basketball--as they have all year. When you equate that with our struggles on the road, and the fact that we have a road heavy schedule in March, it makes it unlikely that we can catch the Heat--barring a collapse of some sort from them..which is most likely not going to happen barring an injured LBJ.

Hicks
02-07-2013, 01:24 PM
The Heat have played 4 less games than we have. If they continue their win %, they'll likely win 3 out of those 4 games. When you look at that, it makes us closer to 6 games back or so--once the number of games played evens out.

Then you have to take into consideration that the Heat are at the very least going to continue to play .650-.700 basketball--as they have all year. When you equate that with our struggles on the road, and the fact that we have a road heavy schedule in March, it makes it unlikely that we can catch the Heat--barring a collapse of some sort from them..which is most likely not going to happen barring an injured LBJ.

If we are to assume each team stays the same, sure. I suspect we will start winning more games in general and on the road in the 2nd half; we're playing better, and I believe Danny Granger will make us better as well.

Enough to catch Miami? Maybe not.

Peck
02-07-2013, 01:50 PM
We are all probably way to high (myself included) after this wonderful stretch by the Pacers.

But it sure is fun to talk and think like this considering in November & early December some of us were wrangling trying to figure out if we could even get home court by being # 4 or really trying to avoid # 8 having to face the Heat in round 1.

Funny what great play and winning will do for you.

billbradley
02-07-2013, 01:53 PM
I think we can be the #1 seed at some point, but not stay there come playoff time. But that would be pretty exciting in itself to be honest.

cinotimz
02-07-2013, 02:07 PM
Well some teams would rather play a second round 7 game away than don't play the game at all, if you have to choose between the Bucks and Boston of course you pick Milwaukee even if it means that you are playing a game 7 away in the future.

Last year that very well could be the case...but not this year...rondo is out..as well as others...Boston isnt really a threat to Pacers, heat, chicago or new york in a 7 game series now...even moreso without home court advantage...the 2nd and conference finals are far more important now...ideally we finish 2....with Miami 1...and New York 3...and chicago 4...i base that on i dont believe we can catch miami...obviously if we could then u want home court against them...absolutely...but if not...then having them and chicago face off in the 2nd round would be ideal...would prefer to not have to run into chicago or miami til the ECF....not that new york will be a walk in the park, because it wont be...we are probaby better built to beat miami right now than new york...but...we would have home court that way..which is what we want...and I actually think we might be able to beat Miami without home court in ECF....if Chicago wins, then at least we have home court...thats pretty much the way i see it working out best...

Anthem
02-07-2013, 02:48 PM
#1 is a worthwhile goal, and it's achievable. I'll do a Magic Number thread later in the year, but right now it's just too soon to do much comparison. Every team in the league is a tweaked ankle, a losing streak, or a chemistry problem away from moving a slot or two up or down.

We'll have a better idea in a month.

xIndyFan
02-07-2013, 03:41 PM
to the OP.

The short answer is no. As Phree said, Pacers are not really 3 games behind, they are 5 games behind, in the loss column. Those losses cannot be made up. For a team to win 60 games, they can only have 22 losses. Miami is a good enough team to be a 60 win team. For the Pacer to catch Miami, two things have to happen. Pacers have to stop losing and Miami has to stop winning. While it is theoretically possible to catch up, it is very unlikely both those things will happen.

J7F
02-07-2013, 04:28 PM
If Boston can beat us when we have home court advantage then we probably don't need to worry much about this whole "beating Miami" business.
Thanks... And for the record... They can't... No Rondo... No chance...

Foul on Smits
02-07-2013, 04:30 PM
to the OP.

The short answer is no. As Phree said, Pacers are not really 3 games behind, they are 5 games behind, in the loss column. Those losses cannot be made up. For a team to win 60 games, they can only have 22 losses. Miami is a good enough team to be a 60 win team. For the Pacer to catch Miami, two things have to happen. Pacers have to stop losing and Miami has to stop winning. While it is theoretically possible to catch up, it is very unlikely both those things will happen.

It really isnt that hard if you believe Indiana is every bit the team Miami is, which i do. 5 games can be made up over like what, 38 games or so? Make 1 game up every 5 or so? It's not hard at all to be honest. The way these dudes on Indy have been playing... It can happen. It's not hard.

LetsTalkPacers84
02-07-2013, 04:34 PM
Ill say its possible. But probably just as possible is that another team takes them out in the playofss before we get a chance. leaving us with homecourt advantage over the rest (Assuming we are at least 2nd)

Lord Helmet
02-07-2013, 04:52 PM
I remember Shaq talking about this and he said that it matters, I remember him talking about not wanting to face Sacramento(not sure what team) in the 1st or second round because they knew that team had the pieces to take them out so their strategy was to stay away from them.

Shaq even talked about not playing that hard in some games so they could have the matchup they wanted.
Who cares what Shaq has to say? Dude is an idiot. This is the same guy that said Hibbert hasn't been playing well because he got fat and lazy after his contract.

He also didn't think Paul should be an All-Star.

If we can get HC then you go for it, this year especially with how well we have played at home.

ilive4sports
02-07-2013, 05:25 PM
Absolutely we can. Our schedule is home heavy, we will be getting Granger back, still a lot of basketball to be played.

SMosley21
02-07-2013, 05:29 PM
OK, so lets say it comes down to the last game of the regular season, if the pacers win they get the #1 seed and play the Celts, if they lose they get the number 2 seed and play the Bucks. Are you really suggesting we should lose that game. Even if we stipulate that the Bucks are a better matchup for us.

OK, so we lose that game and oops, we have to play a game 7 in Miami instead of Indianapolis, how stupid is that. And I would say that to Shaq's face.

Coincidentally (or maybe not) Shaq also got fat and lazy around that same time.

purdue101
02-07-2013, 05:31 PM
Who cares what Shaq has to say? Dude is an idiot. This is the same guy that said Hibbert hasn't been playing well because he got fat and lazy after his contract.

He also didn't think Paul should be an All-Star.

If we can get HC then you go for it, this year especially with how well we have played at home.

Vnzla is slightly off here in how he is interpreting Shaq. Shaq was on TNT and did indeed imply that the Lakers may have thrown a game or two to avoid the Utah Jazz (during their peak years) BUT they never did so at the expense of losing homecourt, which is what Vnzla is implying and is wrong. This was when Utah was a #1 seed and the Lakers would hypothetically rather be a 6 seed vs a 5 seed, thus facing Utah in the WCF vs the 2nd round. A 5 vs a 6 seed is irrelevant in regards to homecourt. I think one year Utah was a 2 and the Lakers may have tried to go from a 3 to a 4 (again, no change in homecourt). As UB said, a team would never ever throw away a #1 position and homecourt throughout to avoid a first round oppenent.

SMosley21
02-07-2013, 05:31 PM
Last year that very well could be the case...but not this year...rondo is out..as well as others...Boston isnt really a threat to Pacers, heat, chicago or new york in a 7 game series now...even moreso without home court advantage...the 2nd and conference finals are far more important now...ideally we finish 2....with Miami 1...and New York 3...and chicago 4...i base that on i dont believe we can catch miami...obviously if we could then u want home court against them...absolutely...but if not...then having them and chicago face off in the 2nd round would be ideal...would prefer to not have to run into chicago or miami til the ECF....not that new york will be a walk in the park, because it wont be...we are probaby better built to beat miami right now than new york...but...we would have home court that way..which is what we want...and I actually think we might be able to beat Miami without home court in ECF....if Chicago wins, then at least we have home court...thats pretty much the way i see it working out best...

Boston hasn't lost a game since Rondo went down. They're 5-0 since his injury.

Slick Pinkham
02-07-2013, 05:58 PM
We can catch them if we play great, but I also expect Miami to have a better second half. People forget that Wade had knee surgery last summer and was really expected to miss more time than he did. He looks to be regaining his explosiveness.

cinotimz
02-07-2013, 06:02 PM
Boston hasn't lost a game since Rondo went down. They're 5-0 since his injury.

Im aware of that and i still dont think they stand any chance against The Heat, the Pacers, the Bulls or the Knicks in a 7 game series...

Mad-Mad-Mario
02-07-2013, 06:13 PM
Pacers can, but they need the Heat to hit a skid. They would have to win like 27 of their next 32 if Miami keeps this pace.

OlBlu
02-07-2013, 06:56 PM
Let's look at the standings. Currently we are at:

Miami
New York 1.5 GB
Indiana 3 GB
Chicago 4 GB


There are two different, in my opinion better, ways to look at the standings though. The first is to take road wins minus home losses:

Miami
Indiana 1 GB
New York 3 GB
Chicago 6 GB

This looks much better, but we are still behind.

The final way would be to look at strength of schedule for the remaining games. Assuming that all current playoff teams represent a loss, and non-playoff teams represent a win:

Miami
New York 5 GB
Indiana 5 GB
Chicago 6 GB

This is not good.

Looking at these numbers, we have a really good chance at grabbing the #2 seed away from New York and holding Chicago off. But the #1 seed does not appear to be in reach. We would have to play outstanding these last 2 months, and also receive quite a bit of help from Miami.

Thought this might be interesting.

The answer to the question is simple. "No". integrating Granger back into the lineup will cost a few games but it might make the Pacers better for the playoffs or it might not.....:cool: ...

vnzla81
02-07-2013, 10:47 PM
Tonight's game is showing why I don't want anything to do with Boston those guys can still do damage.

Nuntius
02-08-2013, 02:26 AM
The Heat tend to coast a lot more in the second part of the season as they gather their strength for the playoffs. They went 20 - 13 and rested their starters at least in 3 of the last 4 games last year.

HCA doesn't matter to them. The #1 seed does not matter. In general, the RS does not matter for them.

So, I don't expect them to fight for the #1 seed. They will try to rest a bit in order to be 100% for the playoffs. I don't expect them to win 60 games.

We can shoot for that #1 seed. It won't be easy but we can at least try.

15th parallel
02-08-2013, 02:37 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if the Pacers, or any top team in particular, catch the Heat at #1. Heat tend to settle for #2 anyway. They are some sort of a sleeping giant that wakes up when playoff comes. They are the same with the Celtics that become dangerous come playoff time, but the current Celtics are a little more desperate as they are at the tail end of the top 8 so they are playing with a sense of urgency right now.

The important thing for me is for the Pacers to keep any of the top 3 spots on a consistent basis. They have lost more than the Knicks and the Heat and the only way to catch them is for them to lose more than what the Pacers have lost so far so the important thing is to keep a good distance with the other chasing teams like Chicago and Brooklyn and win as much as they can.

J7F
02-08-2013, 01:34 PM
Boston hasn't lost a game since Rondo went down. They're 5-0 since his injury.

They are currently harder for opposing teams to scout with their new identity... I will be REAL surprised if that lasts...

cinotimz
02-08-2013, 01:46 PM
The Heat tend to coast a lot more in the second part of the season as they gather their strength for the playoffs. They went 20 - 13 and rested their starters at least in 3 of the last 4 games last year.

HCA doesn't matter to them. The #1 seed does not matter. In general, the RS does not matter for them.

So, I don't expect them to fight for the #1 seed. They will try to rest a bit in order to be 100% for the playoffs. I don't expect them to win 60 games.

We can shoot for that #1 seed. It won't be easy but we can at least try.

I will tell you this. While I dont think we will get close enough to them for it to happen, but if it comes down to the last few games and we are nip and tuck with the Heat for the number 1 seed, I seriously doubt they will be resting their starters. I dont think the Heat want any part of playing the Pacers with the Pacers having home court advantage in the playoffs this season.

Slick Pinkham
02-08-2013, 01:51 PM
Living in the Heat market as I do, I can tell you that we now have Miami's attention. The local pundits laugh at the Knicks, Nets, and Bulls but not at the Pacers, anymore at least.

Derek2k3
02-08-2013, 02:00 PM
We are all probably way to high (myself included) after this wonderful stretch by the Pacers.

But it sure is fun to talk and think like this considering in November & early December some of us were wrangling trying to figure out if we could even get home court by being # 4 or really trying to avoid # 8 having to face the Heat in round 1.

Funny what great play and winning will do for you.

I think that really shows what a stunner is was for this team to lose Danny on the eve of the season.

It makes sense that there was such a struggle...since then, the pacers have been 28-13, a stunning stretch of games in which they are winning 70%!

I really think they could catch Miami, what this team has done since the first 3 weeks of the season is truly incredible. Dominant basketball.

EDIT: The Pacers are currently on track for 53 wins. Miami is on track for 56. NY is on track for 54.

Therefore, the Pacers need to make up about 3 wins to get the 1 seed, and 1 win for the 2.

Eleazar
02-08-2013, 02:24 PM
We still play the Heat one more time. Say we beat them, that moves that 5 more losses to 4. Now the Heat have also played 4 less road games, and if we keep their current play on the road of .500 (currently they are 12-11, but they have been playing .500 ball on the road most of the year) that is another 2 games you can knock off those 5 games. So while not reality at the moment, you could easily look at the difference in losses as being 2 not 5. Then again you could look at the last Heat game as a loss, and that goes up to 4.

If you look at the road and home record, and expand those out to 41 games depending on how you round both teams will finish with a 35-6 home record, while the Heat will finish 21-20 and the Pacers 17-24 on the road. Giving the Heat a 56-26 record and the Pacers a 52-30 record. That is only a 4 game difference in the loss column, not 5.

The one thing that does not take into consideration though is the difference in how the Pacers are playing now compared to the beginning of the season, where we lost road games that we shouldn't have (Bobcats, Bucks, and Minnesota). So it is not far fetched that this team could improve their road performance.

If you look at Miami's next 11 games there are at least 6 games that they could easily lose, four of them on the road, (Clippers(H), Thunder(R), Hawks(R), Bulls(R), Memphis(H), and Knicks(R)), with a couple wild cards with Portland and Lakers. Meanwhile we have a home heavy schedule. If things go our way we could easily close the gap a little in the loss column over the next 11 games.


In short I think it will be a lot easier to make up those 5 extra losses than a lot of you are making it to seem, and as the Heat's road games start to even out with it will just start looking easier and easier.


p.s. Remember we own the tie-breaker. If we tie we are the number one seed. So we don't need to have a better record than the Heat.