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Outlaw
12-14-2004, 11:37 PM
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6694221/ (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6694221/) He doesn't think we will win 40 this year. :rolleyes: Boy will he be surprised!:devil:

canyoufeelit
12-14-2004, 11:45 PM
It really says a lot about the East when we can still compete. And it says more that after losing 7 straight we still were ahead of a lot of teams record-wise. Good to win one tonight too :)

SoupIsGood
12-14-2004, 11:47 PM
Maybe he thinks we are in the west. In the east, losing record will get you in. There's no way we don't get in.

Hicks
12-15-2004, 07:36 AM
He does realize we get 2 of our stars BACK, doesn't he? Guess not.

owl
12-15-2004, 08:11 AM
Maybe he knows David Stern real well and has some inside dope on the
Pacers and Sterns nefarious plans.

owl

Unclebuck
12-15-2004, 08:41 AM
Pacers will make the playoffs, unless they have major injuries to key players.

Fool
12-15-2004, 08:49 AM
I think its pretty well a concensus around the league that the Pacers don't have to worry too much about making the playoffs.

ABADays
12-15-2004, 08:54 AM
I had looked at the schedule and came up with 50-32. Is that too optimistic?

fwpacerfan
12-15-2004, 08:59 AM
I didn't really respect Goukas' opinion much before and I REALLY don't now. I don't like the timing of the article, anyone can write an article like this while a team has lost 7 in a row. This team is right there, even with the 7 game losing streak. The Pacers have the 6th seed and are only 2 games out of first. IF (and it's a big IF) this team can avoid anymore injuries, I think they will be around 2-3 out of first and holding the 5th or 6th seed when JO and SJax come back. The problem I've seen is that when Tinsley is out this team is in trouble. I've also seen 3 players (Reggie, Foster and AJ) trying to get in mid season form. Continuity is what this team needs. I like the addition of Michael Curry A LOT. He is what this team has needed for the last 2 years. I believe if Curry were a Pacer last year, his leadership would've gotten the team over the top. Leadership is very underrated in Pro sports and that guy has it.

Last night was a big win obviously, but I felt coming into the week this team could go 3-0 this week. I hope I'm right because if that happens I think there is a real good chance they could go on a 7 game win streak to end the calendar year.

Ragnar
12-15-2004, 09:36 AM
As long as we get the 8th seed (or whatever lets us play Detroit early) and beat the Pistons on their home floor I dont care what seed we have.

Alabama-Redneck
12-15-2004, 10:04 AM
And where does he rank on your list of "Knowledgable people making correct predictions" :rolleyes: :o :D


:cool:

DisplacedKnick
12-15-2004, 10:40 AM
Goukas is an idiot. JO gets back Jan 15, right? I look at you going 4-9 over those 13 games or somewhere around that. That has you at 15-19.

JO is the key. Freddie's shown me that he's nearly as good as SJax - at least at times. But you've got to get that post player. Once JO's back you'll be an above .500 team. Hard to say how much but I'd say with 48 games you can at least go 30-18. That has you at 45-37, good for about the 6th seed. You could even be a few games better than that.

I look for JO to be a pure monster when he gets back. Fresh legs and that extra little edge - wouldn't surprise me to see him average 25 and 12 the rest of the way.

3Ball
12-15-2004, 10:48 AM
I had looked at the schedule and came up with 50-32. Is that too optimistic?

Probably, but who cares. Even if we squeek in as the 8th seed or so, it isn't going to be like 3 years ago squeeking in at 8th seed. If we are healthy, we are going to cut a pretty wide swath at playoff time. And if we get the suspensions reduced...even if we only get to 40 w's it doesn't matter. I almost like hanging back, letting our young guys get some playing time. Letting our stars rest, recover and work out.

Did you ever notice that the guy who takes the first lead in a marathon almost never wins? At mile 10 he is celebrating, and by mile 15 he's sucking wind and watching guys pass him. At mile 20, he's wondering if he's going to finish. The guy that wins hangs back. He doesn't get too far behind, but he doesn't fight for it either. In marathons, it's the last few miles that make all the difference. All the more so in the NBA.

The only guy I'm really worried about is Tinsley. Right now he's being expected to sprint the first ten miles. We need him ready to sprint the last couple of miles. That's why we so desperately need AJ and Gill to step up. We have to find ways to win (at least a few) games without running Tinsley into the ground early on.

waxman
12-15-2004, 01:51 PM
Isn't Goukas the Cavs announcer.... Apparently Cleveland leading the division has been such a shock to his system that he can't think straight.

Grant
12-15-2004, 02:50 PM
JO is the key. Freddie's shown me that he's nearly as good as SJax - at least at times. But you've got to get that post player. Once JO's back you'll be an above .500 team. *snip*

*snip*
I look for JO to be a pure monster when he gets back. Fresh legs and that extra little edge - wouldn't surprise me to see him average 25 and 12 the rest of the way.
I agree. Both Foster and Harrison are foul prone, and its painful when the Pacers have to go small, and give up size, rebounding, and offensive post presence. Jackson is more important when Reggie leaves after this year (maybe). Right now its not much of a drop off (if any) to play Reggie and Freddie.

Of course it would be nice to get that other post presence back before the playoffs.

stipo
12-15-2004, 03:05 PM
:blahblah: :unimpress

Bball
12-15-2004, 03:40 PM
Well, one thing we are ALL counting on is that JO and SJax rejoin the team and that they don't miss a beat... that chemistry does nothing but improve.... that they are in game shape and hungry... and that several teams haven't went on some surprise winning streaks raising the bar in the East higher than in the past. Also, we aren't considering how important each and every game is and the effect of a couple of injuries when those guys do return.

And many of us are figuring the Pacers can hold their own and at least maintain a .500 record for when those guys return.

...But if any of those propositions don't pan out... Goukas could be right! :eek:

---
We'll see I guess... I'm having a hard time imagining not making the playoffs but I guess I am looking at things thinking the cards will fall into place. Maybe that is being a bit overly optimistic?

-Bball

PacersandIU
12-16-2004, 11:37 PM
Hey, even if we don't make the play-offs maybe we'll end up like the Spurs when David Robinson went out one season with an injury and they did horroble...They ended up getting Tim Duncan in the draft that year. Now I'm not saying we should throw the season, I'm just saying that we might get an awesome draft pick if we do miss the play-offs.

Just looking at the best-case scenario...

able
12-17-2004, 04:36 AM
Hey, even if we don't make the play-offs maybe we'll end up like the Spurs when David Robinson went out one season with an injury and they did horroble...They ended up getting Tim Duncan in the draft that year. Now I'm not saying we should throw the season, I'm just saying that we might get an awesome draft pick if we do miss the play-offs.

Just looking at the best-case scenario...


Hmm Best Case Scenario ??? not getting to the playoffs ?

Thats more like saying you have a nice plot on boot hill, or looking on the bright side.

A Best Case Scenario is that we have al 3 back before Christmas


:D

DisplacedKnick
12-17-2004, 07:01 AM
Well, one thing we are ALL counting on is that JO and SJax rejoin the team and that they don't miss a beat... that chemistry does nothing but improve.... that they are in game shape and hungry... and that several teams haven't went on some surprise winning streaks raising the bar in the East higher than in the past. Also, we aren't considering how important each and every game is and the effect of a couple of injuries when those guys do return.

And many of us are figuring the Pacers can hold their own and at least maintain a .500 record for when those guys return.

...But if any of those propositions don't pan out... Goukas could be right! :eek:

---
We'll see I guess... I'm having a hard time imagining not making the playoffs but I guess I am looking at things thinking the cards will fall into place. Maybe that is being a bit overly optimistic?

-Bball

Well, it isn't like you've even been able to put the same team of reserves on the floor. You'll only be a couple of games out of the playoffs at worst when JO gets back - unless he gets injured I can't see you missing them.

fwpacerfan
12-17-2004, 08:24 AM
Hey, even if we don't make the play-offs maybe we'll end up like the Spurs when David Robinson went out one season with an injury and they did horroble...They ended up getting Tim Duncan in the draft that year. Now I'm not saying we should throw the season, I'm just saying that we might get an awesome draft pick if we do miss the play-offs.

Just looking at the best-case scenario...


I'm not a conspiracy theorist as a rule, BUT I do not think w/Czar Stern's recent history with the Pacers that there is any way he will allow the Pacers to get a pick in the top five.

Bball
04-06-2005, 01:35 PM
:bump:

As I've said... I've kept Matt Guokas' article in mind ever since it was posted. As you can see here by my earlier post, it did cause me to reshape my thinking a bit.

But something else lately has struck me and I wanted to go back to this post in particular. There's a lot of people now talking about what a great accomplishment making the playoffs would be... but back then there was a great confidence that there was no way we missed the playoffs.

ABA was still predicting 50 wins. Even DK was confident in the Pacers not missing the playoffs. And of those of you that put in caveats about injuries, the odd thing is that before these recent injuries we were hardly a sure thing to make the playoffs (not that it is guaranteed now). We were trending down down down.

It's funny how the roller coaster goes I guess.

-Bball

ABADays
04-06-2005, 01:54 PM
Keep in mind, the 50 wins was predicated on having JO and Tinsley too. Even I should have known better than that.

ImReppinBtown
04-06-2005, 02:01 PM
This guy must be kidding, right?

Hicks
04-06-2005, 02:03 PM
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6694221/ (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6694221/) He doesn't think we will win 40 this year. :rolleyes: Boy will he be surprised!:devil:

Even with all his Boogey-Man Prophecies tm coming true, we're still going to win more than 40 games. :censored: Goukas.

Suaveness
04-06-2005, 02:04 PM
Well considering the circumstances, many other people were thinking the same thing...

Bball
04-06-2005, 02:09 PM
Hindsight:
I think when Guokas wrote this article he was correct. Some of his reasoning might be suspect but overall we didn't immediately snap back to a team on a mission. We were seriously spiraling the wrong way. The return of JO (even early) and SJax was not a magic bullet. We were looking like a team that was 50-50 at best to make the playoffs (and that is probably being optimistic). Even prior to the JO's injury we were in trouble.

Since that time a wildcard was thrown into the mix though (The return of Dale Davis) and that has changed things immensely.

-Bball

Bat Boy
04-06-2005, 02:16 PM
Pacers will make the playoffs, unless they have major injuries to key players.
UB, who would have thought at the time you posted the above (in mid-December) that the Pacers would make the playoffs even if they do have major injuries! :D

Unclebuck
04-06-2005, 02:51 PM
Pacers will make the playoffs, unless they have major injuries to key players.



I guess I was wrong. They have had major injuries to key playes and still will make the playoffs

Bball
04-06-2005, 02:58 PM
I guess I was wrong. They have had major injuries to key playes and still will make the playoffs

But would they have done it without Dale Davis?

BTW... anyone wish we could've gotten Dale Davis last season...at least around midseason? Would that have negated the Pistons getting Rasheed and leap-frogging us?

-Bball

Anthem
04-06-2005, 03:10 PM
I never thought we'd miss the playoffs.

When JO and Jax came back, Tinsley had just gotten injured. We weren't winning those games because our PG play was terrible.

Diamond Dave
04-06-2005, 03:40 PM
But would they have done it without Dale Davis?

BTW... anyone wish we could've gotten Dale Davis last season...at least around midseason? Would that have negated the Pistons getting Rasheed and leap-frogging us?

-Bball

Yes, but the trade for Jackson cannot be overlooked. When he and Artest are out there we have two more than capable of negating Rip and Prince. Dale would have been the final step. If everything had remained normal, and we picked up Dale, it was our year to be holding the trophy.:cry:

However we will still compete well in the playoffs.

Unclebuck
04-06-2005, 04:01 PM
But would they have done it without Dale Davis?

BTW... anyone wish we could've gotten Dale Davis last season...at least around midseason? Would that have negated the Pistons getting Rasheed and leap-frogging us?

-Bball


You are really a glass half empty guy. Yes with Dale last year at this time it would have really helped against the Pistons.

Without acquiring Dale this season the Pacers record would be more like 5-11 than the 11-5 since Dale signed

Bball
04-06-2005, 11:44 PM
You are really a glass half empty guy.

I just play one on the internet. You should've seen me smiling during tonight's game.... :D

-Bball

Bball
04-07-2005, 12:59 PM
Does any one have Matt Guokas email address?

Isn't it at the site if you follow the link to the story?

-BBall

Bball
04-14-2005, 02:49 PM
ok, ok

its old, but "got crow?'

I don't think Guokas was necessarily wrong overall. Look at the things people were hanging their hats on to say that he was wrong back when the article first appeared (here and other threads). Those things did not come to pass. What changed was the acquisition of Dale Davis and Reggie's newfound (or re-found) assertiveness. Whether one was related to the other I suppose we'll never know.

Had Walsh/Bird not made the Davis move I think this team was spent for this season and I'm not sure the fans (or Reggie) would've had this burst of energy that everyone is now feeding off of.

What Guokas' article should've done was serve as a wakeup call that things would not be easy or simply begin falling right back into place as soon as players started returning. And a wakeup call to management (and coaching) that they needed to consider something to shake things up and recharge everyone.

-Bball

Harmonica
04-14-2005, 04:39 PM
Umm, we can play the what if game "b-ball" but putting all the ifs, and's and butts aside.
MG said the Pacers wouldnt make it. They did. As I said "Got crow?"..............

If Goukas is as easygoing as UB in admitting he was wrong, you're not likely to get much satisfaction out of it. Anyway, when it comes to sportswriters, William Goldman's adage about Hollywood seems to prove true:

Nobody [in this town] knows anything.

Try finding one that predicted that the Pistons would win the championship last season, much less make it to the finals.

Anthem
04-14-2005, 04:48 PM
Had Walsh/Bird not made the Davis move I think this team was spent for this season and I'm not sure the fans (or Reggie) would've had this burst of energy that everyone is now feeding off of.

What Guokas' article should've done was serve as a wakeup call that things would not be easy or simply begin falling right back into place as soon as players started returning. And a wakeup call to management (and coaching) that they needed to consider something to shake things up and recharge everyone.

Except that players HAVEN'T returned. We all thought Goukas was an idiot because he said we'd miss the playoffs. Most of us placed caveats, though, and said it depended on no more major injuries. Jermaine and Tinsley injured, when we're already missing Artest? That would have made me more likely to consider us missing the playoffs.

No question that the addition of Dale gave us a boost of energy. But we also were getting the ship turned around before Tinsley and Jermaine went down.

Mourning
04-14-2005, 05:08 PM
Except that players HAVEN'T returned. We all thought Goukas was an idiot because he said we'd miss the playoffs. Most of us placed caveats, though, and said it depended on no more major injuries. Jermaine and Tinsley injured, when we're already missing Artest? That would have made me more likely to consider us missing the playoffs.


Ibidem on this part! ;)

Regards,

Mourning :cool:q

Harmonica
04-14-2005, 05:26 PM
As for your last comment, that would be a fun side project. I would be willing to bet its in the 1-3 range

I looked it up right after the finals and vaguely remember none of the major sportswriters getting it right. Here's what I found so far:

http://www.nba.com/preview2003/championship_forecast.html

I imagine Kstat would know.

Hicks
04-14-2005, 05:51 PM
IIRC last year everyone had the Lakers predominately picked to win, followed by the Spurs.

sweabs
04-14-2005, 06:48 PM
IIRC last year everyone had the Lakers predominately picked to win, followed by the Spurs.

I have a magazine lying around here that predicted us to win it all this year. I'm not sure if they were in the minority, although I would assume so.

Bball
04-14-2005, 07:58 PM
Umm, we can play the what if game "b-ball" but putting all the ifs, and's and butts aside.
MG said the Pacers wouldnt make it. They did. As I said "Got crow?"..............

I don't know why I am defending Matt Guokas but both Anthem and yourself seem to be getting something from the article that I did not. (BTW- Guokas put in caveats as well).

I didn't sense any malice or glee from Guokas' writing. I didn't think he seemed happy to be writing the Pacers off. I thought he simply laid out an outline of how things could turn out and threw some water on some people who thought at worst we'd lost our chance at a #1 seed.

I don't know why anyone would be gloating. I certainly don't think Guokas has to eat crow. For most of the season his cautionary statements were coming true. It was the :sunshine: who had to considerably (and constantly) change their positions and make excuses. And Guokas didn't say "These dastardly Pacers will get what they deserve and sit out the playoffs. Bank on it!" Here is what he said:

Guokas:


"Replacing one top player is tough, but replacing three is next to impossible.

The Pacers are finding that out, and never will that message hit home more than in April when Indiana will likely be on the outside looking in when the playoffs begin. "

I'd be curious to hear his take on what has transpired since then.

I guess some of you are giving me the impression that you think Guokas is 'anti-Pacer' or 'the enemy'. I just got the feeling he was being a bit of a realist amongst a little too much optimism and :sunshine:.
Maybe I am reading you guys wrong?

-Bball

Anthem
04-14-2005, 08:27 PM
I don't know why I am defending Matt Guokas but both Anthem and yourself seem to be getting something from the article that I did not. (BTW- Guokas put in caveats as well)....

Maybe I am reading you guys wrong?

I think so. I never thought he was anti-Pacer, just that he was stupid.

He said that the Pacers would be outside looking in on the playoffs, but here we are in a fight for HCA. You've said "Well we're playing better because of Dale Davis" and I said "But unless you counted on losing Jermaine and Tinsley, you couldn't have predicted we'd be in that situation."

I'm not sure why we're still talking about the guy, when his predictions have been so thoroughly discredited. He said the Pacers would fold, and they haven't. We've had lots more adversity on top of the suspensions, and yet we're going to get the spot we predicted in the first place (before the brawl, most people thought the Pistons would edge us out for division title, meaning we'd get 4th seed).

Nobody thought "at worst we'd lost our chance at a #1 seed." The board as a whole saw the loss of Artest as a huge deal. You and Jay were probably the least broken up about it.

But nobody thought we'd be out of the playoffs, either. And despite all of the injuries, we're not.

Los Angeles
04-14-2005, 08:45 PM
I never thought he was anti-Pacer, just that he was stupid.
Classic. :D

It doesn't even matter who you're referring to at the time, it just WORKS.

Bball
04-14-2005, 09:07 PM
I think so. I never thought he was anti-Pacer, just that he was stupid.

Then I'm not reading you wrong at all.



He said that the Pacers would be outside looking in on the playoffs, but here we are in a fight for HCA. You've said "Well we're playing better because of Dale Davis" and I said "But unless you counted on losing Jermaine and Tinsley, you couldn't have predicted we'd be in that situation."

I'm not sure why we're still talking about the guy, when his predictions have been so thoroughly discredited.

His theories have not been discredited. Until Dale Davis joined this team we were on a fast track OUT of the playoffs. One by one players came back and things didn't work out. We didn't get Sjax and JO back and hit the ground running. Yes, there have been injuries, but let's not pretend we were doing just fine injuries or not. Let's also not overlook the players that stepped up. This is one of the caveats Guokas mentioned.



He said the Pacers would fold, and they haven't. We've had lots more adversity on top of the suspensions, and yet we're going to get the spot we predicted in the first place (before the brawl, most people thought the Pistons would edge us out for division title, meaning we'd get 4th seed).

Nobody thought "at worst we'd lost our chance at a #1 seed." The board as a whole saw the loss of Artest as a huge deal. You and Jay were probably the least broken up about it.

That's just not true. There were plenty people predicting only a blip in the season and then a romp with our rested and hungry returning players. I'm not saying a majority, but there were some mighty optimistic predictions out there.



But nobody thought we'd be out of the playoffs, either.

For whatever reason any of us choose to believe, or use as an excuse, we came awfully close to no playoffs.



And despite all of the injuries, we're not.

And this is a good thing that we can all agree on.... Except for Kstat! ;)

:)

-Bball

BTW... none of this means that Guokas isn't an idiot. But I'm not going to pin that title on him for the article in question.

Anthem
04-14-2005, 09:25 PM
His theories have not been discredited. Until Dale Davis joined this team we were on a fast track OUT of the playoffs. One by one players came back and things didn't work out. We didn't get Sjax and JO back and hit the ground running.

I don't equate "We didn't hit the ground running" with "We were on the fast track out of the playoffs."

Tinsley was playing great, Jermaine was here, and right before Jax came back we lost Tinsley. AJ was beyond terrible in his first 10 games. When he started playing decent (before he started playing brilliantly), we were turning it around, and then JO went down.

I'm overjoyed that we got Dale. But if we hadn't lost JO and Tins due to injuries, and we hadn't picked up Dale, I don't think we'd be much, if any, worse than we are right now. Dale's pickup helped slow the bleeding with those two guys out.