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View Full Version : Guess the Score stats updated and a few other notes



Doug
10-30-2012, 04:54 PM
Folks,

I finally updated the guess stats. You can find them at https://sites.google.com/a/ten-13.org/robodoug/

RoboDoug won last year. Again. That's three in a row, and I'm wondering if that is a problem now. At this point, his basic points guesser has evolved through over 15 million generations, with a 100 individuals per generation, so he's tried over 1.5 Billion possible algorithms incorporating a wide variety of stats from the simple like points score to the complex like estimated possessions per game. He's pretty good and tough to beat.

None of the years have been runaway victories, though. He's only won by a single game each of the past three years. So maybe it's not that big of a problem.

I did make a change this year to hopefully make him less likely to guess exactly the same as another poster. I think that should make him a little less accurate, which might help.

But I'm wondering if I should make any further changes, from awarding a "win" for the runner up when RoboDoug wins, to rewriting him or wiping out his evolved guessers, to even changing the point system (like 5 for first, 3 for 2nd, 1 for 3rd).

In the meantime, here are some tips if you want to win the contest as it is now:

Guess Every Game. This is the most important thing you can do. RoboDoug guesses every game no matter what. He doesn't forget or go on vacations. And the less people guessing, the more likely he is to win.

Win Early. RoboDoug uses the stats from the current season to make his guesses. Apparently it takes a while for the stats to represent how good a team is. This version of RoboDoug has never won in November and only has 2 wins in 3 years in December. He's 8.5 points better in April than he is in November.

Hope the Pacers Make the Playoffs. OK, this is pretty much out of your control, but his accuracy drops off in the playoffs. So cheer louder or something.

Use Information He Doesn't. RoboDoug has no idea that Kobe rolled his ankle yesterday and is out for the Pacers game. You do. Take advantage of that.

Thoughts?

Doug

BillS
10-30-2012, 04:57 PM
Never play poker against Doug or guess-the-score against RoboDoug.