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AugustinGrangerHill
09-22-2012, 01:40 PM
-Roy Hibbert and Paul George have both shown good work ethic and both of them should come back improved
-George Hill has had a whole summer just to work on his point guard skills so he should be a better facilitator and decision maker next year
-Danny Granger struggled to find his role on the team last year but now he should know his role
-David West is now a year removed from his knee surgery so he should be 100%
-Gerald Green should add the scoring punch off the bench that we lacked in the playoffs last year
-Ian Mahinmi gives the Pacers a solid back-up center, something we did not have last year after Jeff Foster retired
-For all of those Darren Collison supporters out there, whether you like it or nor D.J. Augustin is a better fit for this team than what he was, this team needs a distributor and they got one in Augustin

shags
09-22-2012, 01:55 PM
-LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant, and Russell Westbrook will all suffer season ending injuries before the playoffs.
-The Spurs and Celtics are really f***ing old. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/tim-duncan-missed-sunday-night-spurs-game-because-081218158.html

Mad-Mad-Mario
09-22-2012, 01:58 PM
I personally am not sold on the Lakers, 2 old guys in the backcourt with a baby in the middle. Not sure its going to come together. The real teams to worry about are the Heat and Thunder.

And with the Heat, you know either Wade or Bosh will get hurt. We just have to be in a position to take advantage of it.

PGisthefuture
09-22-2012, 02:08 PM
I've got as much belief in this team as anybody, but let's not get carried away here.

Natston
09-22-2012, 03:07 PM
We will win this year because a no name rookie will start after tptb read the thread discussing whether or not that player should start...

Brad8888
09-22-2012, 05:45 PM
Because I am still playing 2K12 using the Pacers on Rookie mode, and I am improving enough to actually win games on a consistent basis?

Lance George
09-22-2012, 07:59 PM
Just one of Wade or LeBron suffering a season-ending injury would make Miami beatable. We can take Boston Senior Citizens with relative ease, so we're one lucky injury away from being the front-runners in the East. We'd then have to pull the upset in the Finals.

The Lakers look like monsters on paper, but the games aren't played on paper. Detroit proved superstarless teams can beat on-paper champions back in '04. It would take great chemistry and caching, but it can be done.

BlueNGold
09-22-2012, 08:50 PM
We have had some great teams in the 90's with Reggie and Rik and early 2000's with JO and Artest. The team we have now is good, but not at their level. Maybe in 3 or 4 years we can talk about contending, but at the moment we are just a mild threat.

Mad-Mad-Mario
09-22-2012, 08:53 PM
As I recall that 61 win team with JO and Artest was quite a surprise.

cdash
09-22-2012, 08:56 PM
As I recall that 61 win team with JO and Artest was quite a surprise.

It was?

Mad-Mad-Mario
09-22-2012, 09:07 PM
It was?

First year coach instilling a new offense. Aging SG, A bit of chaos at PG. 3rd best record in the weak east the year before, 9th best in the league. Next year we had the best record in the league. And had it not been O'neal getting hurt we would have probably won the championship.

Nuntius
09-22-2012, 09:32 PM
Lots of shoulda's and lots of theory, my friend.

However, there is a lot of reason for optimism. I don't expect us to win the Championship this year but we will go further than last year.

That's the plan, at least ;)

MvPlumlee
09-22-2012, 11:40 PM
Conference Finals
Finals
Championship

One step at the time, my friend. After next year :)

daschysta
09-23-2012, 01:26 AM
Let's not be unrealistic. We are what we are right now, 2nd tier contenders.

We have a very good chance of beating anyone else in the East other than Miami, or Boston (assuming Pierce and Garnett are still able to perform like they did in the playoff last year next year.)

If Miami is injured again, and George or Hibbert makes a big step maybe.

But we don't know that yet. We can hope, but we can't make declarations at this point. I'm optimistic, but we just can't know yet. If we're the same as last year Miami is a fair bit better than we are. If we make the ECF it is a very successful season, and sets us up well to take that next step to the finals. ECF isn't a pie in the sky kind of thing, it has a real chance to happen, Finals, however, are very unlikely, though I hope it happens as much as anyone.

BornReady
09-23-2012, 01:36 AM
Whatever koolaid you're drinking, I want in on

In more seriousness though, it seems like you make the assumption that nobody else in the league is going to come back improved. Everybody in the NBA (aside from Eddy Curry) is working hard and improving their game. Other teams have made improvements to their roster talent wise as well.

Nuntius
09-23-2012, 01:40 AM
Conference Finals
Finals
Championship

One step at the time, my friend. After next year :)


Let's not be unrealistic. We are what we are right now, 2nd tier contenders.

We have a very good chance of beating anyone else in the East other than Miami, or Boston (assuming Pierce and Garnett are still able to perform like they did in the playoff last year next year.)

If Miami is injured again, and George or Hibbert makes a big step maybe.

But we don't know that yet. We can hope, but we can't make declarations at this point. I'm optimistic, but we just can't know yet. If we're the same as last year Miami is a fair bit better than we are. If we make the ECF it is a very successful season, and sets us up well to take that next step to the finals. ECF isn't a pie in the sky kind of thing, it has a real chance to happen, Finals, however, are very unlikely, though I hope it happens as much as anyone.

We're on the same page :D

King Tuts Tomb
09-23-2012, 06:39 AM
I'm usually pretty pessimistic, but I think we have an outside shot at a title this year, maybe 20-1 odds. In my opinion the Pacers are the best of the second tier teams (Pacers, Clippers, Grizzlies, Sixers, Nuggets). With some good luck I see our path to the finals as this: Upset the Celtics in the second round, which I think is entirely possible. LeBron just played a compacted schedule and entire playoffs as well as the Olympics with the world on his back. If he ever has an off-year, this will be it. Then ride that momentum into the finals and hope we match up well with whoever comes out of the West.

Heisenberg
09-23-2012, 06:49 AM
I'm usually pretty pessimistic, but I think we have an outside shot at a title this year, maybe 20-1 odds. In my opinion the Pacers are the best of the second tier teams (Pacers, Clippers, Grizzlies, Sixers, Nuggets). With some good luck I see our path to the finals as this: Upset the Celtics in the second round, which I think is entirely possible. LeBron just played a compacted schedule and entire playoffs as well as the Olympics with the world on his back. If he ever has an off-year, this will be it. Then ride that momentum into the finals and hope we match up well with whoever comes out of the West.
You're a lot more confident about Lebron having an off year than I am. I'm a lot more inclined to say that when people look back in 25 years they'll say last season was the beginning of the Age Of Lebron and when he began to cement his status as the greatest player ever. Much the same way we look back at the Reggie Pacers and say "if it just weren't for the Bulls..." it's going to be that way with Miami from here on out.

King Tuts Tomb
09-23-2012, 07:03 AM
You're a lot more confident about Lebron having an off year than I am. I'm a lot more inclined to say that when people look back in 25 years they'll say last season was the beginning of the Age Of Lebron and when he began to cement his status as the greatest player ever. Much the same way we look back at the Reggie Pacers and say "if it just weren't for the Bulls..." it's going to be that way with Miami from here on out.

This is probably closer to the truth. I may have mixed in a little Pacers Kool-Aid with my post. Like I said, 20-1, so about a 5% chance that happens.

hackashaq
09-23-2012, 07:18 AM
Plumsanity!

Heisenberg
09-23-2012, 07:27 AM
This is probably closer to the truth. I may have mixed in a little Pacers Kool-Aid with my post. Like I said, 20-1, so about a 5% chance that happens.

That's fair, it's certainly a lot more fun to be somewhat optimistic. I wouldn't put a dime on it right now, but I think 20:1's a fair ratio.

Mad-Mad-Mario
09-23-2012, 11:21 AM
Whatever koolaid you're drinking, I want in on

In more seriousness though, it seems like you make the assumption that nobody else in the league is going to come back improved. Everybody in the NBA (aside from Eddy Curry) is working hard and improving their game. Other teams have made improvements to their roster talent wise as well.

What have the Magic, 76ers, Bulls, Knicks, and Hawks actually done to improve their roster. They made some moves to replace people they lost. But hardly enough to really say they have improved. Hell the 76ers are missing 3 starters from the playoffs last year. For all intents and purposes they are a new team

BlueNGold
09-23-2012, 03:20 PM
This is the classic summer time thread. The problem is, it's fall and we all need to wake up.

Eleazar
09-23-2012, 04:25 PM
This is the classic summer time thread. The problem is, it's fall and we all need to wake up.

Yeah, and this team is a championship contender. Are they one of the favorites no, but only an idiot would say they aren't a contender.

Mad-Mad-Mario
09-23-2012, 04:30 PM
This is the classic summer time thread. The problem is, it's fall and we all need to wake up.

You can't make a statement like this and be taken seriously. If you are going to say they aren't. State the teams that are contenders and why. And then compare and contrast why the Pacers aren't.

Naptown_Seth
09-23-2012, 07:06 PM
It was?
Of course not. Best record in the East till the Artest meltdown. Coach fired because 3rd in the East and a first round loss was considered unacceptable given the team's record, and Carlisle had already won CotY with his insta-fix of Detroit 2 years prior.

Losing Miller hurt, but they were still supposed to be better than the year before. That's what firing Isiah said to the world.



This year's team looks to be facing the same issues as last year. Nice team, going to be fun to root for, but I couldn't put real money (even) down on them making the Finals or even the ECF. To me they have to be 5 or 6-1 to make the ECF alone.


I will be very pleased with a repeat of last season or something along those lines. I'm hoping for a push into the ECF, but that's on the shoulders of Roy, Danny, West, Paul and George who each need to improve for various reasons. Roy, Paul and George are supposed to be developing, Danny is supposed to be getting his game back on track after JOB and the terrible shooting to start last year, and West is supposed to be showing improvements with more time past his surgery. Otherwise this roster did not get more talented in a noticeable way, even if the bench pieces seem more interesting.

Don't get me wrong, I love replacing DC for DJ (love that kid), Green for Jones (young and athletic), and Sam Young for Barbosa (Young was my "trade down and get him" draft choice back then). Maybe Mahimi is the difference maker over Lou.

Mad-Mad-Mario
09-23-2012, 08:05 PM
Of course not. <b>Best record in the East till the Artest meltdown</B>. Coach fired because 3rd in the East and a first round loss was considered unacceptable given the team's record, and Carlisle had already won CotY with his insta-fix of Detroit 2 years prior.

Losing Miller hurt, but they were still supposed to be better than the year before. That's what firing Isiah said to the world.



This year's team looks to be facing the same issues as last year. Nice team, going to be fun to root for, but I couldn't put real money (even) down on them making the Finals or even the ECF. To me they have to be 5 or 6-1 to make the ECF alone.


I will be very pleased with a repeat of last season or something along those lines. I'm hoping for a push into the ECF, but that's on the shoulders of Roy, Danny, West, Paul and George who each need to improve for various reasons. Roy, Paul and George are supposed to be developing, Danny is supposed to be getting his game back on track after JOB and the terrible shooting to start last year, and West is supposed to be showing improvements with more time past his surgery. Otherwise this roster did not get more talented in a noticeable way, even if the bench pieces seem more interesting.

Don't get me wrong, I love replacing DC for DJ (love that kid), Green for Jones (young and athletic), and Sam Young for Barbosa (Young was my "trade down and get him" draft choice back then). Maybe Mahimi is the difference maker over Lou.

Big Deal, that still would have left them at what 6th best in the league. with most of the wins in the incredibly weak east. I don't remember anybody seriously talking about us being in contention until the season had already started that year.

This team is far better poised to make a leap like that. Superteams have made teams more susceptible to individual injuries. Which could benefit us if one of those names is Durant or James. 4 Starters with legit potential to improve. And the East got weaker from last year, which should help us get a better record which gives us a better chance to have a better record if we do luck into the finals.

BlueNGold
09-23-2012, 08:13 PM
Yeah, and this team is a championship contender. Are they one of the favorites no, but only an idiot would say they aren't a contender.

If the 4th or 5th best team in the east is a contender for the NBA championship, the Pacers are a contender. We are behind Miami, Boston...and New York spanked us badly last year. Derrick Rose is scheduled to return as early as January and I would not be surprised to see him out there in March. If he's anywhere close to 100% they are clear favorites. The Sixers are our equal. The Hawks will have Horford back. The Nets and Cavs may not be better than the Pacers, but they will be much improved. The schedule will not be so condensed and our depth will be less of a positive factor. There's a reason we struggled to get by Orlando in the first round and it's because we are not a contender. No real contender struggles against Big Baby and company.

Nobody outside Indiana considers the Pacers to be a contender for the NBA championship. We haven't even won a second round series.

Mad-Mad-Mario
09-23-2012, 08:24 PM
If the 4th or 5th best team in the east is a contender for the NBA championship, the Pacers are a contender. We are behind Miami, Boston...and New York spanked us badly last year. Derrick Rose is scheduled to return as early as January and I would not be surprised to see him out there in March. If he's anywhere close to 100% they are clear favorites. The Sixers are our equal. The Hawks will have Horford back. The Nets and Cavs may not be better than the Pacers, but they will be much improved. The schedule will not be so condensed and our depth will be less of a positive factor. There's a reason we struggled to get by Orlando in the first round and it's because we are not a contender. No real contender struggles against Big Baby and company.

Nobody outside Indiana considers the Pacers to be a contender for the NBA championship. We haven't even won a second round series.

You keep repeating the same things, without backing them up at all. People including myself have refuted your points dozens of times. So your either trolling, or your just sticking your fingers in your ears and ignoring it.

76ers lost 3 starters
Knicks lost their PG that they sucked without, and they didn't spank us. They won the season series 2-1. With us missing George Hill 2 of those IIRC
Bulls lost alot of pieces
Celtics are who knows
Hawks will have Horford back, but they lost Joe Johnson

yoadknux
09-23-2012, 08:52 PM
If the 4th or 5th best team in the east is a contender for the NBA championship, the Pacers are a contender. We are behind Miami, Boston...and New York spanked us badly last year. Derrick Rose is scheduled to return as early as January and I would not be surprised to see him out there in March. If he's anywhere close to 100% they are clear favorites. The Sixers are our equal. The Hawks will have Horford back. The Nets and Cavs may not be better than the Pacers, but they will be much improved. The schedule will not be so condensed and our depth will be less of a positive factor. There's a reason we struggled to get by Orlando in the first round and it's because we are not a contender. No real contender struggles against Big Baby and company.

Nobody outside Indiana considers the Pacers to be a contender for the NBA championship. We haven't even won a second round series.
I don't agree with how you view some of the other teams (Philly aren't equal to us, Rose won't have such a quick comeback, Hawks will not be a serious factor without JJ)
But I generally agree with you that we aren't contenders, and that we're probably going for that 3-4 seed.
We don't have a superstar. We don't have a guy who dominates. We have a bunch of good players who are good guys that work hard on their game. Our balanced team is good enough to get a decent record and probably get past the 1st round, but I think best case for us is ECF.

BlueNGold
09-23-2012, 08:56 PM
You keep repeating the same things, without backing them up at all. People including myself have refuted your points dozens of times. So your either trolling, or your just sticking your fingers in your ears and ignoring it.

76ers lost 3 starters
Knicks lost their PG that they sucked without, and they didn't spank us. They won the season series 2-1. With us missing George Hill 2 of those IIRC
Bulls lost alot of pieces
Celtics are who knows
Hawks will have Horford back, but they lost Joe Johnson

Just because I disagree with the notion we are a contender, does not mean I'm trolling. ...and I am backing up my statements.

Miami is better. Period.

You forgot to mention the Sixers added Bynum and JRich. Yes, they lost Iggy but they won the trade overall, particularly since Bynum is only 24 years old and is probably the best C in the east now. I think with that change they took a step forward.

The Bulls lost nothing of importance. They still have Rose, Deng, Noah, Boozer, Taj Gibson...and they were rocking with Rip Hamilton prior to Rose's injury. They had the best record in the east by some distance. They also added Hinrich and Belinelli. There is little doubt they are the better team with a healthy DRose.

The Celtics are going to be about the same as last year. We still have not proven we are better than them. There are three or possibly four teams that are better.

The Knicks clearly had our number in the first two games. The game we won in Indiana was a game Stoudemire sat out. That might be five.

The Nets are going to be a lot better too. The Hawks were a .600 team. We struggled to beat Orlando. Are these not facts? We may be better than those three, but I seriously doubt we can beat more than 5 of these 8 teams in a series.

Mad-Mad-Mario
09-23-2012, 09:21 PM
Wow now that you backed up your arguments, I can at least say your logic is flawed. I love how you just totally ignored the Knicks losing Lin, but hey you had to or else the claim would have been even more preposterous.

daschysta
09-23-2012, 09:25 PM
If the 4th or 5th best team in the east is a contender for the NBA championship, the Pacers are a contender. We are behind Miami, Boston...and New York spanked us badly last year. Derrick Rose is scheduled to return as early as January and I would not be surprised to see him out there in March. If he's anywhere close to 100% they are clear favorites. The Sixers are our equal. The Hawks will have Horford back. The Nets and Cavs may not be better than the Pacers, but they will be much improved. The schedule will not be so condensed and our depth will be less of a positive factor. There's a reason we struggled to get by Orlando in the first round and it's because we are not a contender. No real contender struggles against Big Baby and company.

Nobody outside Indiana considers the Pacers to be a contender for the NBA championship. We haven't even won a second round series.

There are quite a few national publications that are predicting we get the second seed in the East. Which qualifies as a contender. Whether that means much if Miami remains significantly better is up to you, but most people would qualify a team capable of putting up the second best seed in the east and a "contender". If anything the national publications have been higher on the team than many in this forum.

Eleazar
09-23-2012, 09:53 PM
Maybe the 76ers will be much improved from last year, but they are essentially a new team for all we know they will miss the playoffs this year. With Bynum's injury history it is certainly possible. There is probably a reason why JRich was traded twice in 3 seasons.

Rose won't be coming back anywhere near 100%. We aren't talking about a minor injury that you can come back from and immediately be the same player as before. It takes time to return to form, and most players never fully recover, especially those who rely on their athleticism like Rose. They will still be a good team, but no better than us.

Knicks, just stop it. They shouldn't even be in this discussion.

The Nets added JJ, good for them. Is he really going to propel them from one of the worst teams in the league to better than the Pacers? Hell no, get serious here we aren't talking about LeBron James or Michael Jordan, we are talking about Joe Johnson.

It is hard to say how good the Hawks will be without JJ. Horford being back will help them though.


If struggling to beat Orlando is equivalent to beating them by an average of 10.8ppg or 14.5ppg not including the loss. Then I'm ok with struggling. The point margins in those games were 4, 15, 23, 2, and 18.

Then if you want to look at the Heat, our starters more than held their own against the Heat. At times they down right dominated the Heat's starters. That is far from the Heat being better period. That is the Heat being lucky our bench was bad.

This team was the 3rd seed for a reason last year. They didn't just get lucky. They were the third seed because they earned it, and they were a good bench away from possibly beating the eventual champs.

All of those teams have problems just like the Pacers, most of them also have bigger changes from last year to this year. Stop being emo, and wake up to realize this team is good right now. Not a year or two from now, but today. This team is already competing at the same level as any contender. You know what they did it with two core players who were not on the team the prior season, a rookie head coach, a very short training camp, their best player having possibly his worst statistical season, a bench that wasn't very good as a unit, and a condensed season. This season we at worst have an equally good bench, most believe it is better, a full training camp, the starters have played a season together, by all means we should expect every single starter to be better than they were last year, and the same goes for our coach. Of all the teams you mentioned, other than the Heat we have the most to be optimistic about because we are essentially the same team as last season. We didn't lose any major players, and there is no reason to believe that any of our players won't be as good as they were last year. Last year we weren't far off from taking the Heat to 7 games or even winning that series.

Just cause they have sexier and more established names doesn't mean they have better players, or more importantly a better team.

BlueNGold
09-23-2012, 10:00 PM
Wow now that you backed up your arguments, I can at least say your logic is flawed. I love how you just totally ignored the Knicks losing Lin, but hey you had to or else the claim would have been even more preposterous.

The Knicks don't lose much with Jason Kidd and Raymond Felton at the point. ...and they added several playoff experienced vets...now just role players...in Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas and Ronnie Brewer. They are now ready for a run. Depth was a real problem for them and I think they addressed that and improved as a team.

In any event, it is certainly not preposterous to claim that a team is better if they won the prior year's series and have Mello, Chandler, Stoudemire, JR Smith and JKidd in their starting unit. That is a lot of talent. Two of those guys are on the backside of their careers, but they are still highly effective players...in their prime better players than any Pacer by some distance.

Edit: BTW, I don't think they pickup so many guys like Kidd, Camby, Thomas, etc. without those guys thinking this team has a chance. I really think some of you under-rate the Knicks...

Hypnotiq
09-23-2012, 11:18 PM
Yeah, and this team is a championship contender. Are they one of the favorites no, but only an idiot would say they aren't a contender.

:laugh:

far out get your hand of it guess there must be plenty of idiots in the world then according to you.

we are not a contender we are a perennial 2nd round playoff team this is the cold hard truth and you can take it anyway you like

15th parallel
09-23-2012, 11:30 PM
Well it really is safe to say that the Pacers are contenders this coming season due to the fact that they were holding the 5th best record in the league last season. I mean, with only DC as the biggest loss in the lineup, the team has retained most of its core that was successful recently, and we still have not considered the fact that the Pacers have beefed up their bench with better players and the other guys are improving.

Also, until the season unfolds, new contenders on paper just like the Nets are still unsure quantities. Depending on how fast new main guys from other teams gel with the new system, new teammates and new environment, the solid groups like Miami, Boston, Indiana, OKC and LAL still holds the advantage of being contenders. Philly may have gotten the 2nd best center in the league, but Bynum never played the main role in LA, and with his history of injuries and bad attitude, I'm still not conviced he'll be better for the Sixer than Iggy. The loss of Rose may not affect Chicago in terms of being a sure playoff team, but we just saw their collapse without him in the playoffs. LA still have Kobe and Gasol, so the addition was really an "addition" and not simply change just like what the other teams did.

But of course, the championship will still be long ways to go. With Miami and OKC at their prime, add the Lakers' sudden increase in firepower, it is still hard to realize a Pacers finals appearance and a championship trophy, but who knows? There are just too many variables in sports so at one point we'll be there faster than anybody can think of.

BornReady
09-24-2012, 12:19 AM
What have the Magic, 76ers, Bulls, Knicks, and Hawks actually done to improve their roster. They made some moves to replace people they lost. But hardly enough to really say they have improved. Hell the 76ers are missing 3 starters from the playoffs last year. For all intents and purposes they are a new team

Good job naming 5 teams in the league. Last time I checked there were more who HAVE made improvements to their roster. If you're trying to argue that teams in the NBA didn't improve with that pitiful sample size, you're mad.

BornReady
09-24-2012, 12:25 AM
Wow now that you backed up your arguments, I can at least say your logic is flawed. I love how you just totally ignored the Knicks losing Lin, but hey you had to or else the claim would have been even more preposterous.

How is his logic flawed? He's ignoring certain facts the same way you are. You stated that Philly lost 3 starters without stating that they also gained players, as he correctly pointed out. You also argue "Celtics are who knows." You make arguments like "Superteams have made teams more susceptible to individual injuries." If you're going to nag on him for flawed logic, maybe you should look back to your posts and take a good hard look at how unfounded your arguments are.

Nuntius
09-24-2012, 03:41 AM
If the 4th or 5th best team in the east is a contender for the NBA championship, the Pacers are a contender.

The Pacers are not the 4th or 5th best team in the East. They rightfully earned that 3rd seed last season. So, until things are proven otherwise (say, the season starts and other teams are leapfrogging us or we're playing bad) the conviction will remain that the Pacers are the 3rd (or even 2nd now that Rose is out) best team in the East.



We are behind Miami, Boston

Yes, we are behind Miami.

But are we behind Boston? The only reason that Boston went to the ECF instead of us was because we played Miami in the 2nd round while they played Philly. They benefited from the Rose injury. Yes, they played great against Miami and had a lead against them but so did we.



...and New York spanked us badly last year.

They spanked us the same way we spanked the Lakers and the Thunder. Were we better than them? Are we better than them?

That's a pretty bad argument, my friend.



Derrick Rose is scheduled to return as early as January and I would not be surprised to see him out there in March. If he's anywhere close to 100% they are clear favorites.

ACL is not a simple injury. ACL is nasty stuff. Regardless of how well the surgery went it's going to take a looooot of time to get back to 100%. Chances are that he will not be anywhere close to 100%.



The Sixers are our equal.

They got Bynum but lost 2 starters and their 6th man. In all regards, they are a new team. Time will tell if they are better than us, our equal or worse than us.




The Hawks will have Horford back.

But no Joe Johnson.



There's a reason we struggled to get by Orlando in the first round and it's because we are not a contender.

We didn't struggle. We won 4 - 1 with an average margin of 18.5 points.



No real contender struggles against Big Baby and company.

Boston went to 7 games with Philly and to 6 with Atlanta. Were they not contenders? If they weren't, then why did Miami went to 7 games with them?

Nuntius
09-24-2012, 03:57 AM
The schedule will not be so condensed and our depth will be less of a positive factor.

Ow and before I forget. Our depth was good in the regular season but in the playoffs they were a negative factor.

Our starters in the other hand?

Check out for yourself -> http://basketballvalue.com/index.php

They steadily ranked among the elite as a unit.

Nuntius
09-24-2012, 04:11 AM
The Nets added JJ, good for them. Is he really going to propel them from one of the worst teams in the league to better than the Pacers? Hell no, get serious here we aren't talking about LeBron James or Michael Jordan, we are talking about Joe Johnson.


There's a reason they were on the worst teams in the league, though. Brook Lopez was injured for the most part of the season and their Center spot was filled by Shelden Williams (at least, he is a good defender) and Johan Petro. They only got Gerald Wallace after the trade deadline. They had no real depth.

This season they're going to have Gerald Wallace right out from the gates. Brook Lopez will be back and injury-free and they also added Joe Johnson. Plus, they have depth now. Mirza Teletovic is ready to contribute as an off-the bench scorer, Tornike Shengelia is an amazing prospect as a Forward, Blatche may be a headcase but he has talent and Childress is a good bench contributor (he cannot shoot but he can drive and is athletic).

I consider the Nets a much better threat than the Knicks. They are going to be good.

Nuntius
09-24-2012, 04:17 AM
we are not a contender we are a perennial 2nd round playoff team this is the cold hard truth and you can take it anyway you like

So, if the Pacers reach the ECF this season will you consider them a contender and accept the "cold hard truth" or will you consider them lucky and stick by your opinion?

Nuntius
09-24-2012, 04:36 AM
The Knicks don't lose much with Jason Kidd and Raymond Felton at the point. ...and they added several playoff experienced vets...now just role players...in Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas and Ronnie Brewer. They are now ready for a run. Depth was a real problem for them and I think they addressed that and improved as a team.

In any event, it is certainly not preposterous to claim that a team is better if they won the prior year's series and have Mello, Chandler, Stoudemire, JR Smith and JKidd in their starting unit. That is a lot of talent. Two of those guys are on the backside of their careers, but they are still highly effective players...in their prime better players than any Pacer by some distance.

Edit: BTW, I don't think they pickup so many guys like Kidd, Camby, Thomas, etc. without those guys thinking this team has a chance. I really think some of you under-rate the Knicks...

Jason Kidd averaged 6.2 PPG, 5.5 APG, 4.1 RPG, 1.7 SPG and 1.9 TPG last season. Those were his career lows in every category except steals (which was the same with last season) which makes sense as he will be 39 years old in the following season.

Raymond Felton also posted career lows in PPG (11.4) and RPG (2.5) and his second worse in APG (6.5) and SPG (1.3) Plus, he shot an abbysmal 30.6% from the field.

Marcus Camby averaged 4.9 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.8 APG and 1.4 BPG last season. Those were career lows in every category except points (4.7 is his lowest). He improved his FG% from 39.8% to 44.6% but that's still a bad percentage for a Center. And he will be 38 years old in 2013.

Kurt Thomas averaged 3.0 PPG and 3.5 RPG. He tied his career low in scoring but that's his worse rebounding season by a large margin (2nd worst is at 4.2 RPG). His blocks and assists close to his career averages but 0.9 APG and 0.6 BPG is nothing to write home about. And he will be 40 years old in 2013.

Ronnie Brewer was a good addition.

The other ones though? They are not going to make all the difference in the world.

Pacer Fan
09-24-2012, 08:37 AM
I think Pacers have a chance to win it all and I'm going in this season believing. Don't care what anyone thinks. One word could prevail... Chemistry!

Unclebuck
09-24-2012, 09:32 AM
As I recall that 61 win team with JO and Artest was quite a surprise.

Nope. Excellent coach coming in to one of the most talented rosters in the NBA. not surprised at all. (I mean maybe 61 wins was a little higher than most predicted, but I would guess 58 was the consensus
. Here is what some experts from SI thought.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/basketball/nba/11/02/preseason.picks/index.html
Finally, what teams will be in the NBA's Final Four?

Aldridge: East: Detroit and Miami. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Ballard: East: Miami and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Burns: East: Detroit and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Forrester: East: Detroit and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Houston.
Hollinger: East: Indiana over Detroit, because Jamaal Tinsley (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/players/3528) won't get hurt this time. West: San Antonio over Dallas -- Barry gives the Spurs a new alternative when Tony Parker (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/players/3527) starts playing crazy.
McCallum: I hate to be obvious and unoriginal, but I like Detroit and Indiana in the East and San Antonio and Minnesota in the West.
Thomsen: East: Detroit and Miami. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
__________________________________________________ ________________


Not sure if the Pacers will win "next season" but for this season, I don't see the Pacers in the elite with Heat, Thunder, Lakers. Those three are the class of the NBA - I'd be shocked if the champion isn't one of those three. Pacers would do well to be in the second level teams.

Sollozzo
09-24-2012, 09:45 AM
Nope. Excellent coach coming in to one of the most talented rosters in the NBA. not surprised at all. (I mean maybe 61 wins was a little higher than most predicted, but I would guess 58 was the consensus
. Here is what some experts from SI thought.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/basketball/nba/11/02/preseason.picks/index.html
Finally, what teams will be in the NBA's Final Four?Aldridge: East: Detroit and Miami. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Ballard: East: Miami and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Burns: East: Detroit and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Forrester: East: Detroit and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Houston.
Hollinger: East: Indiana over Detroit, because Jamaal Tinsley (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/players/3528) won't get hurt this time. West: San Antonio over Dallas -- Barry gives the Spurs a new alternative when Tony Parker (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/players/3527) starts playing crazy.
McCallum: I hate to be obvious and unoriginal, but I like Detroit and Indiana in the East and San Antonio and Minnesota in the West.
Thomsen: East: Detroit and Miami. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.


Minnesota was an obvious pick going into 04-05, but they ended up not even making the playoffs that year. In 03-04, the additions of Spreewell and Cassell propelled them into the top seed in the West and they went all the way to the WCF's. KG was the MVP. But they came back the next year and couldn't even make the playoffs. Their rapid demise was without question the biggest surprise of the 04-05 season.

Steagles
09-24-2012, 10:08 AM
Here's one sentence why we won't: Not enough $$$ generated for the NBA.


Sent from #ColtsNation using Tapatalk

LG33
09-24-2012, 10:11 AM
I think the new Bulls team, even with a healthy Derrick Rose, isn't as strong as it was last season. They kept their best bench player, Taj Gibson, but lost the other four from what was arguably the league's strongest second unit. I expect Chicago to make the playoffs again, possibly as high as the 5th seed, but I don't expect them to be contenders this year with all these one-year rental players.

Out: Omer Asik, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Watson, Kyle Korver and John Lucas III

In: Kirk Hinrich, Marquis Teague, Nate Robinson, Marco Bellinelli, Nazr Mohammed and Vladimir Radmanovic

Tom Thibodeau is certainly capable of building cohesion with this group and maxing out its potential. I just don't its potential being all that high. Moreover, I don't think the Bulls team (with a core of Boozer, Rose, Deng, Noah) that beat us in 2011, will ever return to its previous heights.

Cactus Jax
09-24-2012, 10:44 AM
Nope. Excellent coach coming in to one of the most talented rosters in the NBA. not surprised at all. (I mean maybe 61 wins was a little higher than most predicted, but I would guess 58 was the consensus
. Here is what some experts from SI thought.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/basketball/nba/11/02/preseason.picks/index.html
Finally, what teams will be in the NBA's Final Four?

Aldridge: East: Detroit and Miami. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Ballard: East: Miami and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Burns: East: Detroit and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Forrester: East: Detroit and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Houston.
Hollinger: East: Indiana over Detroit, because Jamaal Tinsley (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/players/3528) won't get hurt this time. West: San Antonio over Dallas -- Barry gives the Spurs a new alternative when Tony Parker (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/players/3527) starts playing crazy.
McCallum: I hate to be obvious and unoriginal, but I like Detroit and Indiana in the East and San Antonio and Minnesota in the West.
Thomsen: East: Detroit and Miami. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
__________________________________________________ ________________


Not sure if the Pacers will win "next season" but for this season, I don't see the Pacers in the elite with Heat, Thunder, Lakers. Those three are the class of the NBA - I'd be shocked if the champion isn't one of those three. Pacers would do well to be in the second level teams.

Man there was references to Bender, Jim O'Brien, and Mike Dunleavy, and even a Ron Artest for Peja trade. Pretty funny to read looking back on it.

Trader Joe
09-24-2012, 11:22 AM
Nope. Excellent coach coming in to one of the most talented rosters in the NBA. not surprised at all. (I mean maybe 61 wins was a little higher than most predicted, but I would guess 58 was the consensus
. Here is what some experts from SI thought.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/basketball/nba/11/02/preseason.picks/index.html
Finally, what teams will be in the NBA's Final Four?

Aldridge: East: Detroit and Miami. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Ballard: East: Miami and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Burns: East: Detroit and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Forrester: East: Detroit and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Houston.
Hollinger: East: Indiana over Detroit, because Jamaal Tinsley (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/players/3528) won't get hurt this time. West: San Antonio over Dallas -- Barry gives the Spurs a new alternative when Tony Parker (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/players/3527) starts playing crazy.
McCallum: I hate to be obvious and unoriginal, but I like Detroit and Indiana in the East and San Antonio and Minnesota in the West.
Thomsen: East: Detroit and Miami. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
__________________________________________________ ________________


Not sure if the Pacers will win "next season" but for this season, I don't see the Pacers in the elite with Heat, Thunder, Lakers. Those three are the class of the NBA - I'd be shocked if the champion isn't one of those three. Pacers would do well to be in the second level teams.

UB that article you linked was from after the 61 win season.

Peck
09-24-2012, 12:07 PM
I have to give a shout out to Vnzla81 for what has to be heroic self restraint. If ever there was a thread that screamed for some dark sider reply this is certainly one of them.

That being said this is going to be one of the more interesting seasons in recent Pacer history. I could see this team going either way, very good or very dissapointing.

A lot of things hinge on health (as they do for all teams) & how important chemistry is to a normal regular season.

BornReady
09-24-2012, 12:15 PM
I think the new Bulls team, even with a healthy Derrick Rose, isn't as strong as it was last season. They kept their best bench player, Taj Gibson, but lost the other four from what was arguably the league's strongest second unit. I expect Chicago to make the playoffs again, possibly as high as the 5th seed, but I don't expect them to be contenders this year with all these one-year rental players.

Out: Omer Asik, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Watson, Kyle Korver and John Lucas III

In: Kirk Hinrich, Marquis Teague, Nate Robinson, Marco Bellinelli, Nazr Mohammed and Vladimir Radmanovic

Tom Thibodeau is certainly capable of building cohesion with this group and maxing out its potential. I just don't its potential being all that high. Moreover, I don't think the Bulls team (with a core of Boozer, Rose, Deng, Noah) that beat us in 2011, will ever return to its previous heights.
I'm inclined to think that it was the Bull's starting lineup that made them so formidable. Yes, bench is important, but I don't think that was what brought them over the top. That being said, it could just be me, but I feel like I'd rather have the "In" group rather than the "Out" group. I like Hinrich a lot.

Nuntius
09-24-2012, 01:28 PM
I don't see the Pacers in the elite with Heat, Thunder, Lakers. Those three are the class of the NBA - I'd be shocked if the champion isn't one of those three. Pacers would do well to be in the second level teams.

That's where I place the Ps as well. It's just that this tier of teams are still contenders. They are not the favourites but they are in the mix.

LG33
09-24-2012, 01:39 PM
In regard to our championship hopes, let me say this: There are known knowns. These are things that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't known we don't know. Depending on how the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns play out, we'll be in good shape to compete for an NBA championship.


I'm inclined to think that it was the Bull's starting lineup that made them so formidable. Yes, bench is important, but I don't think that was what brought them over the top. That being said, it could just be me, but I feel like I'd rather have the "In" group rather than the "Out" group. I like Hinrich a lot.

I don't know that Hinrich is a better player at this point in his career than C.J. Watson, but I'll concede the point (both the argument and the floor position). In the games that I've watched Chicago (admittedly very few), Watson didn't blow me away, but he was definitely solid as a backup and capable as a starter. I'm more concerned about the defensive drop-off from Ronnie Brewer to Bellinelli/Robinson and Omer Asik to Nazr/VladRad. Chicago gave up the fewest points per game last season, but was just a middling offensive squad, and this exchange of players will probably help offensively but hurt defensively - to what extent (because they're backups) is debatable. I would posit that Asik/Brewer defensive contributions outweigh any new players' offensive contributions, and it will bring an elite defense down to just a good defense. As the cliche goes, "defense wins championships" -and the Bulls' defense - and title hopes - just got worse in my estimation.

Unclebuck
09-24-2012, 01:42 PM
That's where I place the Ps as well. It's just that this tier of teams are still contenders. They are not the favourites but they are in the mix.

How often does a team win a title from the second tier? I suppose when the Mavs won it. Other than that it doesn't happen hardly ever in the NBA. There are almost always 3 or 4 elite teams and one of those teams wins the title.

Nuntius
09-24-2012, 01:55 PM
How often does a team win a title from the second tier? I suppose when the Mavs won it. Other than that it doesn't happen hardly ever in the NBA. There are almost always 3 or 4 elite teams and one of those teams wins the title.

Apart from the Mavs the Heat in 2006 was such an example. The Magic in 2009 was a similar case as well even though they just reached the Finals.

I'm not saying that the Pacers are going to win the championship this season. But being in that second tier is an important step. You have to be in the second tier and take the next step in order to be a first tier contender. You don't leapfrog from bottom to the top. It takes time. And we're on the right track.

That's all I'm saying.

BornReady
09-24-2012, 02:38 PM
In regard to our championship hopes, let me say this: There are known knowns. These are things that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't known we don't know. Depending on how the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns play out, we'll be in good shape to compete for an NBA championship.



I don't know that Hinrich is a better player at this point in his career than C.J. Watson, but I'll concede the point (both the argument and the floor position). In the games that I've watched Chicago (admittedly very few), Watson didn't blow me away, but he was definitely solid as a backup and capable as a starter. I'm more concerned about the defensive drop-off from Ronnie Brewer to Bellinelli/Robinson and Omer Asik to Nazr/VladRad. Chicago gave up the fewest points per game last season, but was just a middling offensive squad, and this exchange of players will probably help offensively but hurt defensively - to what extent (because they're backups) is debatable. I would posit that Asik/Brewer defensive contributions outweigh any new players' offensive contributions, and it will bring an elite defense down to just a good defense. As the cliche goes, "defense wins championships" -and the Bulls' defense - and title hopes - just got worse in my estimation.

Yes it's going to be interesting seeing how they pan out. It seems like they gave up PG offense and SG defense for PG defense and SG offense :P

Mad-Mad-Mario
09-24-2012, 05:27 PM
Whose to say we won't be elite this year though? It rests on Paul George finding his next level, don't get me wrong. We need that star, that when the game is on the line can manufacture points one way or another.

But if George can find that part of his game that we saw flashes of last year. And if Hibbert and Hill both continue their progress that they have shown. Whose to say we can't be Elite?

You don't get the 5th best record in the league without there being something. And with so much youth both in coaching, and in our starting line up. You have to expect this team to get better.

The Heat and Thunder(for another year) are definitively better. But with the Rose injury the Bulls are almost certainly going to slip. I am 90% certain KG is mortal which means age is going to catch up to him at some point, why not this year. Lakers look to have surpassed us, but thats a backcourt with lots of issues, and Dwight Howard is as mature as an infant who knows what chaos he could bring.

So at the moment, there are two teams that are Elite, Thunder and Heat. They are both known quantities, we have seen them before. And then there are several teams, the Pacers included, who hope to join the ranks of the elite. All these teams hoping to be Elite, have issues and concerns. And whichever teams best weather those issues and concerns will join that Elite class.

In 03-04, we were 8th ranked going into the season. But we addressed our loss at Center with Foster, who was damn good in that slow pace offensive system. We made Jamaal Tinsley the starter, and that worked quite well for a season or 2. And then JO and Ron both developed their defensive game making it so we didn't need to score alot of points.

That team on paper at the beginning of the year, wasn't elite. But things came together over the course of the year and left us come playoff time, the team to beat.

shags
09-24-2012, 06:59 PM
There's 29 other teams who would like to have the backcourt issues the Lakers have.

Lance George
09-24-2012, 08:53 PM
Nope. Excellent coach coming in to one of the most talented rosters in the NBA. not surprised at all. (I mean maybe 61 wins was a little higher than most predicted, but I would guess 58 was the consensus
. Here is what some experts from SI thought.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/basketball/nba/11/02/preseason.picks/index.html
Finally, what teams will be in the NBA's Final Four?

Aldridge: East: Detroit and Miami. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Ballard: East: Miami and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Burns: East: Detroit and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
Forrester: East: Detroit and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Houston.
Hollinger: East: Indiana over Detroit, because Jamaal Tinsley (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/players/3528) won't get hurt this time. West: San Antonio over Dallas -- Barry gives the Spurs a new alternative when Tony Parker (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/players/3527) starts playing crazy.
McCallum: I hate to be obvious and unoriginal, but I like Detroit and Indiana in the East and San Antonio and Minnesota in the West.
Thomsen: East: Detroit and Miami. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
__________________________________________________ ________________


Not sure if the Pacers will win "next season" but for this season, I don't see the Pacers in the elite with Heat, Thunder, Lakers. Those three are the class of the NBA - I'd be shocked if the champion isn't one of those three. Pacers would do well to be in the second level teams.

The article you posted is for the 2004-2005 season -- the season after our 61-win team. After coming off 61 wins and a Conference Finals appearance, many "experts" had us back in the final four; not exactly surprising.

From my recollection, the 03-04 61-win season was a surprise. We were a decent 48-win team the season before, sure, but we were also a first-round exit. Just as importantly, we lost Brad Miller -- who was coming off of an All-Star appearance -- in the offseason.

I can find only one 2003-2004 season preview article from a major source via Google search: SI's 2003-04 NBA Preview - Thursday October 23, 2003 (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2003/magazine/10/20/main/index.html)

I'm not sure who wrote the article, but they have us as third in the East (behind New Jersey and Detroit), and 10th overall. Solid, sure, but the exact same seeding as the previous season, and not exactly a member of the NBA elite.

Pacergeek
09-24-2012, 09:08 PM
Indiana- too many "ifs" have to happen. "If" Paul George takes his game to the next level. "If" Roy Hibbert can become more aggressive and dominate smaller players. "If" George Hill learns how to be a better distributor. "If" our bench is truly improved.

Miami- one certainty, Lebron James will be in MVP form again

Sookie
09-24-2012, 10:06 PM
The Pacers have an outside shot. I'd say they've got just as good of a chance as any non preseason favorite. (Not Miami, OKC, or Lakers) I'd say they were the next tier down with the Spurs.

In the East, they should be better than everyone not named Miami. And Miami is a vulnerable dominant team.

Whether they could beat OKC (who now has the experience of being there) the Lakers, or the Spurs (outside shot of them making the finals) is another question.

Coopdog23
09-25-2012, 09:03 AM
I say they lose to Miami in the ECF in 7 games

Pacer Fan
09-25-2012, 10:19 AM
I say they lose to Miami in the ECF in 7 games

I say we beat the Heat in 4 games cause Danny is gonna slip his foot under Lebron in game 1 in our house for a nice payback.

Coopdog23
09-25-2012, 01:49 PM
I say we beat the Heat in 4 games cause Danny is gonna slip his foot under Lebron in game 1 in our house for a nice payback.

Not sure he pulls a Jalen Rose. Or Jeff Foster makes a comeback to take out Lebron

Naptown_Seth
09-25-2012, 01:53 PM
Big Deal, that still would have left them at what 6th best in the league. with most of the wins in the incredibly weak east. I don't remember anybody seriously talking about us being in contention until the season had already started that year.
For the fail.

Pre all-star records:
Dallas 38-10
Indy 34-15
NJ 34-15
Det 32-15
SA 33-16
Sac 34-17

They had fallen to 34-15 with a 3pt loss to the Lakers in which they played without Ron Artest and Kobe still went 11-31. After this they went on to win their next 3 games coming out of the AS game for a games above .500 high of 37-15.

NBA records as of that date (Feb 14th games completed)
Dallas 39-12
Indy 37-15
SA 35-16
Sac 36-17
NJ 35-17
Det 34-16

So with only 30 games left the Pacers had the 2nd best record in the NBA. They had swept the TWolves who ended up with the 4th best record in the NBA and were 29-20 before the AS break. They had split with Dallas, the #1 team in the NBA. They had lost 1 time to both SAS and LAL.

They then went 1-11 in their next 12. Artest had returned from suspension for the first 3 games after the AS break which the team won, but in which Ron shot 3-9, 4-16 and 5-17. He was in the midst of his distracted play, full of horrible shooting and technical fouls. Pre-AS he had shot 45% and 37.8% from 3, Post-AS he went 39.7% and 29% from 3. During this time his FGA/game went from 12.0 to 12.6, minor but a factor of some of his high volume shooting games.

During early 2003 he had the 3 game suspension for the MSG camera smash (Jan 4) and then 4 games for his altercation with Pat Riley (Jan 30). Then he smashed his own photo on a Conseco wall leading to a team suspension of 1 game (Feb 26). He then lost games due to Flagrant Foul points on Mar 9 (1 gm), Mar 13 (1 gm) and Mar 20 (2 gm). The Flagrant that cost him 2 games was just a few seconds into the start of a game vs Boston. The dude had gone completely nuts since JAN and clearly impacted what was obviously otherwise a title contending team.

Everyone viewed the team this way and many felt that some of the issues fell on Isiah's "player friendly" approach.

Naptown_Seth
09-25-2012, 02:01 PM
And the point of my response on the 02-03 team and expectations was that they had been kicking NBA rear until Ronnie became a major distraction. They had TWO ALL-STARS on the team, one of which was on the verge of being an MVP candidate. They had another guy that was about to be an all-star and were it not for his antics he might have been in 02-03.

That's not this team. This team was a lot more like the 00-01 or 01-02 team. Stuff is getting there but they are still looking for something to click. This could be the 02-03 team maybe where they have a strong run that leads people to believe that next year they really are title contenders.

But the 02-03 team had a MAJOR change going into 03-04, a huge improvement at coach that wasn't really in dispute given Rick's W-L his first 2 years and his rep as an ast. with the 98-00 team. What is the change coming into this year on par with that? What did they do last year that suggests that this big change was just the thing to put them over the top?

You add DWill or Nash at PG then I'm buying, but otherwise this is not the same as coming out of 02-03 where people most certainly thought the team SHOULD be great if only Rick could keep all the pieces working together.

Eleazar
09-25-2012, 02:42 PM
And the point of my response on the 02-03 team and expectations was that they had been kicking NBA rear until Ronnie became a major distraction. They had TWO ALL-STARS on the team, one of which was on the verge of being an MVP candidate. They had another guy that was about to be an all-star and were it not for his antics he might have been in 02-03.

That's not this team. This team was a lot more like the 00-01 or 01-02 team. Stuff is getting there but they are still looking for something to click. This could be the 02-03 team maybe where they have a strong run that leads people to believe that next year they really are title contenders.

But the 02-03 team had a MAJOR change going into 03-04, a huge improvement at coach that wasn't really in dispute given Rick's W-L his first 2 years and his rep as an ast. with the 98-00 team. What is the change coming into this year on par with that? What did they do last year that suggests that this big change was just the thing to put them over the top?

You add DWill or Nash at PG then I'm buying, but otherwise this is not the same as coming out of 02-03 where people most certainly thought the team SHOULD be great if only Rick could keep all the pieces working together.

No one is saying they are going to be one of the favorites, only that they are good enough to have an outside chance to win it.

Mad-Mad-Mario
09-25-2012, 06:00 PM
You use the fact that they had 2 all stars as evidence people were expecting them to be good the next year. Even though they lost one of those all stars for Scot Pollard? You don't see the problem with that logic.

The 2003-2004 Pacers. Had to work in a new coach. Had to address question marks at PG. Had to try out a new player at C and their starting SG was what 37. And they still had to keep control of the knucklehead at SF.

So no, I am sorry. Nobody expected them to be the best team in the league that year. They had too many questions to address and it was amazingly fortuitous that they managed to work out all those issues so well. And thats exactly what I am saying. This team has far fewer issues to address to contend than that team did. All this team really has to have is players to improve along their expected learning curve, and nobody have any major setbacks or hit any plateaus.

cgg
09-25-2012, 07:56 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2003/basketball/nba/specials/preview/2003/indiana.preview/


Outlook

Lurking in the pack. Nobody doubts Indiana's talent, not after they blew out of the gate 30-12 last year. Losing Brad Miller will hurt, but several of the young players are in a position to contribute much more than they did a year ago. If Tinsley can put the pieces together, and Artest's head stays screwed on, the Pacers can still rule the East. It's up to Carlisle to put in place the pieces that Thomas couldn't.

OlBlu
09-26-2012, 09:49 AM
-Roy Hibbert and Paul George have both shown good work ethic and both of them should come back improved
-George Hill has had a whole summer just to work on his point guard skills so he should be a better facilitator and decision maker next year
-Danny Granger struggled to find his role on the team last year but now he should know his role
-David West is now a year removed from his knee surgery so he should be 100%
-Gerald Green should add the scoring punch off the bench that we lacked in the playoffs last year
-Ian Mahinmi gives the Pacers a solid back-up center, something we did not have last year after Jeff Foster retired
-For all of those Darren Collison supporters out there, whether you like it or nor D.J. Augustin is a better fit for this team than what he was, this team needs a distributor and they got one in Augustin

I think the bigger question will be how far the Pacers have moved back in the pack. I have them between 5-8 in the East. Those reserves are no enormous upgrades and the Pacers still have the same starters. Only George has a chance to make a big move forward. :cool:

OlBlu
09-26-2012, 09:50 AM
No one is saying they are going to be one of the favorites, only that they are good enough to have an outside chance to win it.

If this was baseball, that pitch would be so far outside that neither the batter or the catcher could get to it......:cool:

BRushWithDeath
09-26-2012, 10:27 AM
You use the fact that they had 2 all stars as evidence people were expecting them to be good the next year. Even though they lost one of those all stars for Scot Pollard? You don't see the problem with that logic.

The 2003-2004 Pacers. Had to work in a new coach. Had to address question marks at PG. Had to try out a new player at C and their starting SG was what 37. And they still had to keep control of the knucklehead at SF.

So no, I am sorry. Nobody expected them to be the best team in the league that year. They had too many questions to address and it was amazingly fortuitous that they managed to work out all those issues so well. And thats exactly what I am saying. This team has far fewer issues to address to contend than that team did. All this team really has to have is players to improve along their expected learning curve, and nobody have any major setbacks or hit any plateaus.

It also has far less talent.

And while it is difficult to overcome the issues which that Pacers team had, it is far more difficult to overcome a lack of talent.

BillS
09-26-2012, 10:55 AM
I think the bigger question will be how far the Pacers have moved back in the pack. I have them between 5-8 in the East. Those reserves are no enormous upgrades and the Pacers still have the same starters. Only George has a chance to make a big move forward. :cool:

So you really don't think Hibbert will make any major improvements? Even if an offense is in place that can get him the ball more often?

Barring injuries, 5th in the East is very low, and 8th makes no sense at all.

OlBlu
09-26-2012, 10:58 AM
So you really don't think Hibbert will make any major improvements? Even if an offense is in place that can get him the ball more often?

Barring injuries, 5th in the East is very low, and 8th makes no sense at all.

Hibbert has made improvements, how much room can there be left. Same with every starter but Paul George. I see Miami, Boston, NY, Brooklyn and Philly at least equal to or better than the Pacers and a couple of others made improvements too. I don't look for 8th either unless a starter is injured for some length of time....:cool:

Nuntius
09-26-2012, 11:47 AM
and the Pacers still have the same starters

And that's exactly what is keeping our hopes up. Those starters were good enough to be the best 5 man unit in the league last season ;)

OlBlu
09-26-2012, 11:59 AM
And that's exactly what is keeping our hopes up. Those starters were good enough to be the best 5 man unit in the league last season ;)

What? First of all, your five men have to be better than Miami's two men and they aren't. They aren't as good as Boston's best three players. Where do people get this crap that the Pacers have the best five man unit in the League? They one won playoff series against Orlando and they would not have won that if Howard had played. It is great to be optimistic. It is just silly to make such absurd statements....:cool:

Peck
09-26-2012, 12:34 PM
Hibbert has made improvements, how much room can there be left. Same with every starter but Paul George. I see Miami, Boston, NY, Brooklyn and Philly at least equal to or better than the Pacers and a couple of others made improvements too. I don't look for 8th either unless a starter is injured for some length of time....:cool:

I only really disagree with you about Philly.

Collins is a great coach (he wears on players like Brown & Skiles do but he's still knew enough there that this isn't an issue yet) but I think Bynum is a crap shoot. Yes when he plays he's very very good but Andrew has both injury issues & frankly some dedication issues & I wonder how he will do when he is not on one of the top teams in the league. Now he could very well rise to the challenge & excell but there is also the chance he could just lose interest & stagnate or even possibly fade.

I don't think they made enough other improvements to stay in the group. But time will tell.

I know a lot of people are going to disagree about N.Y. but I tend to think that with Woodson on board for the full season they will have a far better record than what they had last season.

Boston I think you over rate but I don't disagree that they are in the conversation as well.

Miami is a given.

The Nets are riddle so far. On paper they look to be either our equal or our superior but we do have to see how the talent meshes together. Just can't say for sure here.

I think people are writing the Bulls off to soon. Sure they aren't going to be top3 or even top 5 but all they have to do is be top 8 and then Rose comes back & they can spoil a lot of plans.

But the main thing is none of this matters till they tip off the season.

J7F
09-26-2012, 12:36 PM
What? First of all, your five men have to be better than Miami's two men and they aren't. They aren't as good as Boston's best three players. Where do people get this crap that the Pacers have the best five man unit in the League? They one won playoff series against Orlando and they would not have won that if Howard had played. It is great to be optimistic. It is just silly to make such absurd statements....:cool:

Our starting unit was better than Miami's starting 5... Our issues mainly came out when Roy was on the bench... Danny's injury was another turning point in the series...

I know you hate statistics... But they proved this point several times in the offseason discussions...

I will give you that Miami's starters were often better than ours in the 4th Qs where it really counts... But the other three Qs routinely belonged to our starters when they were on the floor together...

And I agree that Miami, New York, Brooklyn, Boston, and Philly COULD all be at our level or better next year... But they COULD also all end up worse too (sans Miami barring a severe injury to LeBron...) And you tend to leave that 2nd part out...

BillS
09-26-2012, 12:49 PM
Our starting unit was better than Miami's starting 5

At a certain level I disagree with this.

As a unit our starting 5 scored better than Miami's starting 5 when everyone was fresh. However, our starting 5 was not capable of keeping up with Miami's top 2 starters in the extended minutes of a playoff series. Because of this, I would give the nod to Miami even given the head-to-head statistics - Miami's starters were better because they had the stamina to be able to take advantage of the mismatches when our starters had to rest.

That said, if we have improved the bench to where they can hold the line or even lose only 50% of the ground they lost last year, it means our starters are in position to get the rest they need and come out stronger at the end of the game.

Basically, for LBJ and DWade to put the team on their shoulders they have to be within reach. If the Pacers' bench can keep them at the ragged edge of "in the game", we have a chance.

Overall, though, we do NOT have to be better than Miami in order to be a top-3 in the East. Why we keep focusing on Miami during the discussion of anything other than actually winning the East is beyond me. We could be 1 in the Central and 3rd in the East by just being better than Philly, NY, and NJ - none of which is guaranteed but neither are they somehow out of the question.

OlBlu
09-26-2012, 12:49 PM
Our starting unit was better than Miami's starting 5... Our issues mainly came out when Roy was on the bench... Danny's injury was another turning point in the series...

I know you hate statistics... But they proved this point several times in the offseason discussions...

I will give you that Miami's starters were often better than ours in the 4th Qs where it really counts... But the other three Qs routinely belonged to our starters when they were on the floor together...

And I agree that Miami, New York, Brooklyn, Boston, and Philly COULD all be at our level or better next year... But they COULD also all end up worse too (sans Miami barring a severe injury to LeBron...) And you tend to leave that 2nd part out...

When have one, two or three players better than your entire starting five, you do not have a great starting unit. I don't care what the stats say. As soon as playoff time comes around and the superstars start logging heavy minutes, the Pacers will bite the dust with this team quickly. The team is designed for a long regular season, not the playoffs....:cool:

OlBlu
09-26-2012, 12:52 PM
I only really disagree with you about Philly.

Collins is a great coach (he wears on players like Brown & Skiles do but he's still knew enough there that this isn't an issue yet) but I think Bynum is a crap shoot. Yes when he plays he's very very good but Andrew has both injury issues & frankly some dedication issues & I wonder how he will do when he is not on one of the top teams in the league. Now he could very well rise to the challenge & excell but there is also the chance he could just lose interest & stagnate or even possibly fade.

I don't think they made enough other improvements to stay in the group. But time will tell.

I know a lot of people are going to disagree about N.Y. but I tend to think that with Woodson on board for the full season they will have a far better record than what they had last season.

Boston I think you over rate but I don't disagree that they are in the conversation as well.

Miami is a given.

The Nets are riddle so far. On paper they look to be either our equal or our superior but we do have to see how the talent meshes together. Just can't say for sure here.

I think people are writing the Bulls off to soon. Sure they aren't going to be top3 or even top 5 but all they have to do is be top 8 and then Rose comes back & they can spoil a lot of plans.

But the main thing is none of this matters till they tip off the season.

Bynum is easily the best center in the east by a long way. I agree with you about Chicago and that could move the Pacers even further down the list.....:cool:

BillS
09-26-2012, 12:58 PM
When have one, two or three players better than your entire starting five, you do not have a great starting unit. I don't care what the stats say. As soon as playoff time comes around and the superstars start logging heavy minutes, the Pacers will bite the dust with this team quickly. The team is designed for a long regular season, not the playoffs....:cool:

And I disagree somewhat with this. Yeah, when you get up to 3 players better then you are pretty close to being a better starting 5 without any other adjustments needing to be made, but when you only have one or even 2 superstars it doesn't automatically follow it is a better starting 5. If your starting 5 can make up for what those 2 superstars can do, then you have a better starting 5. It isn't about head-to-head comparisons, it's about how well the team does together. If it was about head-to-head then Miami would be working on their third ring this year and everyone else might as well take the season off.

I submit that the ability of superstars to log additional minutes varies by the superstar and by how much they have to work against the opponent's bench. Even superstars get fatigued, and I think the ability of LBJ and DWade to take over was as much to our offense failing to make them work off the ball as it was due to them being so superior that no one could ever hope to stop them.

In other words, there's more to the game than just talent. It's harder to overcome an opponent with that talent, but it can be done.

Naptown_Seth
09-26-2012, 12:58 PM
I'm in the middle between Bill and Nuntius. Bill is right to say they couldn't run the minutes with Miami, but on the other hand there is something to be said about the starting 5 being better than the starting 5 of other teams (minus the minutes limits). It's not like the starting 5 barely plays, just not as much as guys like James and Wade.

And Miami's bench was and remains vulnerable which only forces more minutes onto James and Wade.


I'm cool on the Pacers chances to improve to the team to beat level, but I do love the assembly of balanced pieces because if you have that and have them working well as a unit it's unstoppable. Clicking as a 5 could really make a difference, and I don't think they really did that last year. It was more like a rotation of which of the 5 would be doing something next.

More 3-4 man interactive plays this year could really change the East landscape. That's why I look to Vogel as the #1 "needs to improve" element, more than any other player. I like him, but hopefully he's bringing more development than anyone to the table. That would work wonders.

Trader Joe
09-26-2012, 01:02 PM
Plus with our deep stock of talent, it does open our trading doors pretty wide, let's say we're sitting around the 4 seed come Feb and insert Superstar X becomes available (it happens every year), we do have a pretty good collection of pieces to make a run at that type of person now, IMO.

Nuntius
09-26-2012, 01:36 PM
What? First of all, your five men have to be better than Miami's two men and they aren't. They aren't as good as Boston's best three players. Where do people get this crap that the Pacers have the best five man unit in the League? They one won playoff series against Orlando and they would not have won that if Howard had played. It is great to be optimistic. It is just silly to make such absurd statements....:cool:

Advanced statistics say so:

http://basketballvalue.com/index.php

Also:

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Yt2BmIrMYNo?feature=player_detailpage" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

OlBlu
09-26-2012, 01:49 PM
[QUOTE=Nuntius;1503808]Advanced statistics say so:

Then you have an example to show just how silly statistics can be. Your statistical top starting five can't play with many teams in the league. That is the power of superstars, they trump balanced teams just about every time..... If you have watching the NBA for a number of years you should already know this. :cool:

OlBlu
09-26-2012, 01:50 PM
Plus with our deep stock of talent, it does open our trading doors pretty wide, let's say we're sitting around the 4 seed come Feb and insert Superstar X becomes available (it happens every year), we do have a pretty good collection of pieces to make a run at that type of person now, IMO.

How often does a superstar really become available in a trade for the Pacers? :cool:

Nuntius
09-26-2012, 02:19 PM
Then you have an example to show just how silly statistics can be. Your statistical top starting five can't play with many teams in the league. That is the power of superstars, they trump balanced teams just about every time..... If you have watching the NBA for a number of years you should already know this. :cool:

You have every right to disagree with the statistics. Personally, I certainly believe that statistics don't tell the whole story.

But don't act surprised when people express an opinion that is backed up by statistics. It's not a matter of optimism, homerism or whatever. It's just people stating the facts. Cause statistics are facts. Opinions are not facts :cool:

I'm not trying to say that we're better than the Heat. What I'm trying to say is that this starting 5 that you seem to consider a minus since "it's still the same" is actually one of the best in the league. That's all.

Eleazar
09-26-2012, 02:30 PM
You have every right to disagree with the statistics. Personally, I certainly believe that statistics don't tell the whole story.

But don't act surprised when people express an opinion that is backed up by statistics. It's not a matter of optimism, homerism or whatever. It's just people stating the facts. Cause statistics are facts. Opinions are not facts :cool:

I'm not trying to say that we're better than the Heat. What I'm trying to say is that this starting 5 that you seem to consider a minus since "it's still the same" is actually one of the best in the league. That's all.

Don't even bother with him, all he does is look at names on a piece of paper and compares it to how often ESPN says those names to decide who is better. Sometimes I doubt he even watches the games.

OlBlu
09-26-2012, 02:33 PM
You have every right to disagree with the statistics. Personally, I certainly believe that statistics don't tell the whole story.

But don't act surprised when people express an opinion that is backed up by statistics. It's not a matter of optimism, homerism or whatever. It's just people stating the facts. Cause statistics are facts. Opinions are not facts :cool:

I'm not trying to say that we're better than the Heat. What I'm trying to say is that this starting 5 that you seem to consider a minus since "it's still the same" is actually one of the best in the league. That's all.

When your starting five gets abused the way Miami did to the Pacers in the playoffs, improvements need to be made. We didn't make any on that starting unit. We have no superstars and, in fact, we have no stars at all. NBA history says that is a recipe for an early exit and, no, in spite of the stats you quote, I don't think the Pacers starters are in the top ten in the NBA......:cool:

OlBlu
09-26-2012, 02:36 PM
Don't even bother with him, all he does is look at names on a piece of paper and compares it to how often ESPN says those names to decide who is better. Sometimes I doubt he even watches the games.

Actually, I think that treatment more describes a stat monkey that me. I do watch and I do pay attention to everything. I don't care what ESPN says about anything other than when they rate teams.... I don't think you will see the Pacers at the top of their list.....:cool: Nor do I think you will ever hear them say the Pacers have the best starting five in the NBA.....

Peck
09-26-2012, 02:41 PM
You have every right to disagree with the statistics. Personally, I certainly believe that statistics don't tell the whole story.

But don't act surprised when people express an opinion that is backed up by statistics. It's not a matter of optimism, homerism or whatever. It's just people stating the facts. Cause statistics are facts. Opinions are not facts :cool:

I'm not trying to say that we're better than the Heat. What I'm trying to say is that this starting 5 that you seem to consider a minus since "it's still the same" is actually one of the best in the league. That's all.


While this is true interpretation and application of stats often times is opinionated.

Nuntius
09-26-2012, 02:45 PM
When your starting five gets abused the way Miami did to the Pacers in the playoffs, improvements need to be made. We didn't make any on that starting unit. We have no superstars and, in fact, we have no stars at all. NBA history says that is a recipe for an early exit and, no, in spite of the stats you quote, I don't think the Pacers starters are in the top ten in the NBA......:cool:

Our starting five never got abused by Miami. Our bench got abused.

Nuntius
09-26-2012, 02:46 PM
While this is true interpretation and application of stats often times is opinionated.

That's exactly the reason that I generally do not try to interpret the stats ;)

Sookie
09-26-2012, 03:10 PM
We also haven't seen what type of offense Vogel is really looking to implement. For two years now, he's only been able to implement a really simple one (which meant easy to defend). That in itself is likely to be a huge improvement on the team.

Then this starting five will have another year's worth of experience and playing together.

And hopefully we'll have PG making the 3rd year jump, and Roy improving where he can. David will be two years away from his ACL injury (actually a pretty big deal), Danny's still go the ability to get better (stop taking bad shots and play defense all the time) and an improved bench. I think this team is capable of being better.

I disagree completely with the idea that Miami, Boston, NY, Brooklyn and Philly will all be better.

Miami - okay, obviously.

Boston - too old. The core of that team is still Garnett, Pierce, and Rondo. Rondo is apparently a disaster as a teammate and Garnett (also likely a disaster as a teammate) and Pierce are just getting too old. I won't lie though, it wouldn't surprise me if they do end up being better than NY, Brooklyn, and Philly.

Philly - yea, good luck running a team through Bynum. He can be great, he can also be incredibly inconsistent. And he's injury prone. And he's immature.

New York - Why on earth would anyone think New York would be better than the Pacers? Their "improvement" this season was trading Lin for Kidd and Felton. At the end of the day, Melo and Amare are a bad fit. And they play a style that just doesn't win.

Brooklyn - They do have some talent. And I'd say they are probably likely to be better than Philly and New York. But I don't see them being better than us this season.

BRushWithDeath
09-26-2012, 03:18 PM
Boston - too old. The core of that team is still Garnett, Pierce, and Rondo. Rondo is apparently a disaster as a teammate and Garnett (also likely a disaster as a teammate) and Pierce are just getting too old. I won't lie though, it wouldn't surprise me if they do end up being better than NY, Brooklyn, and Philly.

While I generally disagree with most of the post, the highlighted portion stands out.

I despise Kevin Garnett and everything about him. But I think one thing he most certainly is not, is a bad teammate.

OlBlu
09-26-2012, 04:01 PM
The bench was in the game when Miami (James) took over"? I don't think so. Our starters could do nothing with Miami in crunch time. That is why we lost so badly to that team. We would have lost to Orlando for the same reason if Howard had not been out....:cool:

Trader Joe
09-26-2012, 04:09 PM
The bench was in the game when Miami (James) took over"? I don't think so. Our starters could do nothing with Miami in crunch time. That is why we lost so badly to that team. We would have lost to Orlando for the same reason if Howard had not been out....:cool:

Pacers lead at the end of the 1st quarter 3 games, Miami lead the other 3. Pacers lead at half 3 games. Miami lead at half twice. And one game was tied. (Oddly enough both games we won we trailed at end of 1st quarter and were tied and behind at half.)

Miami won 4 of the third quarters. Every game they won. The team that won the 3rd quarter won every game in the series.

I don't know what this means. Generally I think our general success in the first half, is a good indication that our starters did well on a skill to skill basis versus the Miami starters. What does the drop in second half suggest? To me it could be a couple of things.

1.) The bench didn't give us a whole lot. (While Lebron played nearly entire games without flinching, thus Miami's bench was sort of unimportant)
2.) The starters ran out of gas.
3.) Vogel got his *** beat at half time adjustments in 3 of the 5 games by Spoelstra. (Throwing out the Miami blow out in game 5 because that game was just DOA for the P's)

Personally, if I'm being completely honest, as much as I love Frank, I think 3 was a much bigger factor than anyone here wants to admit.

OlBlu
09-26-2012, 04:16 PM
Pacers lead at the end of the 1st quarter 3 games, Miami lead the other 3. Pacers lead at half 3 games. Miami lead at half twice. And one game was tied. (Oddly enough both games we won we trailed at end of 1st quarter and were tied and behind at half.)

Miami won 4 of the third quarters. Every game they won. The team that won the 3rd quarter won every game in the series.

I don't know what this means. Generally I think our general success in the first half, is a good indication that our starters did well on a skill to skill basis versus the Miami starters. What does the drop in second half suggest? To me it could be a couple of things.

1.) The bench didn't give us a whole lot. (While Lebron played nearly entire games without flinching, thus Miami's bench was sort of unimportant)
2.) The starters ran out of gas.
3.) Vogel got his *** beat at half time adjustments in 3 of the 5 games by Spoelstra. (Throwing out the Miami blow out in game 5 because that game was just DOA for the P's)

Personally, if I'm being completely honest, as much as I love Frank, I think 3 was a much bigger factor than anyone here wants to admit.

I think you are right. Mostly a superstar stepped up and beat the Pacers with only a little support from his teammates. Perhaps a great coach would have found a way to keep this from happening....:cool:

BillS
09-26-2012, 04:43 PM
I'm going through game-by-game using the play-by-play to analyze when games were lost or went out of control. For purposes of this discussion, I'm going to define "starters" as requiring at least 3 starters on the floor, so LBJ+DWade "abusing" Danny + bench doesn't count.

Here's game 1, won by Miami 95-86

Starters PG, DG, GH, RH, DW. Led 13-6 until Barbosa came in, then still leading 19-14 when Lou in for Roy and Tyler in for West. In next 3 minutes Miami takes lead and ends first quarter down by 3.

Start second quarter with Pacers bench, Pacers lead 36-30 when starters come back in. Pacers lead 46-38 when Hill goes back out, 47-39 when DG and PG go out (1:15 left in half). Pacers lead at half 48-42.

Second half starts with starters. Miami ties 52-52. Hill goes out with 5 fouls, Roy goes out with 4 fouls. Pacers regain lead but go back down 62-61 with 4:29 left in the 3rd. Pacers leading 70-68 when West and PG go out with 42 seconds left in 3rd (OK, 69-68 but DG at the FT line so I'll count the next point as starters). Miami ties it at end of 3rd.

Fourth quarter starts with bench (Collison/Hans/Barbosa plus DG & West). Miami goes up 78-72 in first 3:10 of the quarter. PG & Roy back in for DG & Tyler, so call this now the starters (West, PG, Roy plus DC & Barbosa). Hill & DG back in by 7:28 (score Miami 82-75). Starters get it to within 1 at 4:51 remaining (86-85) but fall back to down 4 by 2 minutes left. PG fouls out, giving LBJ FTs, and the rest is missing shots down the stretch while Miami adds unneeded points on FTs and a jumper.

VERDICT: The bench lost the lead at the beginning of the 4th, and the starters were unable to get it back. The lead was not lost to LBJ "abusing" anyone. The game stays even except for that one run by Miami that the starters weren't able to overcome. I'd be willing to call this one a toss-up since the starters failed to hit their shots in the last 2 minutes, but there was certainly no "abuse" of the starters by LBJ involved, and if the bench doesn't let the Heat go on that run then the starters may come out fine. In this case, the bench is on the floor because of foul trouble, so here is a game where an improved bench would have helped a lot.

Next game in a later response.

BillS
09-26-2012, 05:12 PM
I'm going to skip over the Pacer wins, since this discussion is about how we could have prevented the losses.

Game 3, Heat win 101-93

Starters GH, RH, DG, DW, PG. Pacers up 9-2 when West picks up a second foul and goes out. Battier and Chalmers keep Miami in it by hitting 3 point shots. Pacers lead 21-13 with 3:19 in the quarter when PG and GH go out (now bench). Pacers lead at end of first, 25-18.
Second quarter starts with total bench (Amundson, Jones, Barbosa, Hans, Collison). DG & DW come back in with 8:49 left with score 29-26 (Haslem, Wade, LBJ + FTs from LBJ). Miami takes lead briefly, Pacers up 32-30 when Hibbert comes back in (now starters). West and Hill will go out before half but using the 3 rule starters are still in when half ends with Pacers up 54-46.

Second half begins with all 5 starters. By 6:50 to go Miami has tied, due to 8 pts from LBJ and 4 from DWade. Roy goes out at 5:03 remaining, DW & GH go out at 2:58, score is Miami 69-65. With bench in, quarter ends Miami 76-70.

Fourth quarter starts with bench (GH & PG plus Lou, Barbosa, DC). DG swaps out for GH at 9:37 left, score Miami 82-79. West and Hibbert come back in at 06:12 (score Miami 86-81). Starters in the rest of the game but can't get it any closer. Final 101-93.

VERDICT: I think this is the game that folks on the "it was all LBJ against the starters" are using as their main ammunition. The run that changed the game was LBJ and DWade with the starters on the floor, and while everyone played even from that point on it was too late.

BillS
09-26-2012, 05:38 PM
Game 5: Everyone sucked. VERDICT: Everyone sucked. No points are awarded to either side, and I need a stiff drink for being forced to even look at it again.

Game 6: Starters DW, DG, RH, PG, GH. Barbosa in for PG at 03:44 left in 1st, Pacers up 21-12 when DC and Tyler come in for GH and DW. Quarter ends with bench still in, Miller hits a 3 for the Heat to bring them within 28-21.

Second quarter starts with bench, Wade hits for 4 points (PG back in at this point) and Miller hits another 3 to tie the game 28-28. DW back in, Wade hits 4 more and LBJ hits one to put Miami up 34-30 with 9:00 left and Roy comes back in (now starters on the floor). Pacers get back to within 1, DWade hits one, DG and GH come back in. DWade hits another and Miller hits another 3, Miami up 41-35. Pacers take the lead back with 5:14 left in the half, score wobbles back and forth but half ends with Pacers on top 53-51.

Second half begins with starters in. Score wobbles more, Miami up 64-63 when DC comes in for DG (4 fouls). Miami up 68-66 when Barbosa comes in for GH. (still 3 starters on the floor). Miami up 71-69 (after West's technical) when Tyler comes in for Roy with 1:16 left in the 3rd (now bench is on the floor). Anthony, Miller, Chalmers hit (Miller & Chalmers for 3) to give Miami 79-69 lead.

Fourth quarter DG comes in for Barbosa after 22 seconds, now starters on the floor. All starters back in by 9:53 to go during Roy FTs that bring Pacers to within 83-75. Pacers get within 5 but shots from Battier & Anthony keep Miami well ahead. Pacers cut it to 6 with 2:31 left, LBJ sends it back to 10 with 2 makes up to 1:37. Final scores are an LBJ jumper and DWade FTs to make the final score 105-93.

VERDICT: This one is the poster child for the bench making it go belly-up. Arguably if the bench doesn't let Miami go on the unanswered run at the end of the 3rd, the Pacers have a shot because mundane scores by Anthony and Battier aren't going to keep Miami up by 10 points. The main point here is that this was NOT an LBJ or even DWade heroics game in terms of the effect on the run that gave Miami their big lead, so even if you blame the starters for not being able to get it done "in the clutch" you CAN'T claim they were abused by LBJ.

Sookie
09-26-2012, 06:24 PM
While I generally disagree with most of the post, the highlighted portion stands out.

I despise Kevin Garnett and everything about him. But I think one thing he most certainly is not, is a bad teammate.

I've read stories from a few local papers that suggest he is. You never know with newspapers and such, because they tend to have their own agenda, especially when it comes to Boston sports. But I really don't find the idea too hard to believe.

edit: Trader, I agree. And I love Frank too. And I was quick to compliment Frank because the Pacers were generally a great third quarter team. But I think he got out adjusted/coached in those final two games.

I do think it's easier to make adjustments when you have Wade and Lebron. And really, the reason Miami won that series was because both Lebron and Wade went into "mvp mode." I also think that Spoelstra figured out stuff that we really couldn't adjust to because of the players we have. (I don't quite remember what it was, might have been PnR with Lebron or Wade that we couldn't stop. Well, that and that they figured out that PG's a great defender, but struggles the second you run his man off of screens. Which Wade did a lot of in the last two games. )

Trader Joe
09-26-2012, 06:42 PM
I mean there's not a whole lot you can do when LBJ and Wade are hitting 15 foot contested runners every time down the court. You just have tip your hat and say GG. That's what changed the series in a big way on the court. Wade and Lebron added that move to their arsenal basically between game 2 and 4 (using game 3 as an adjustment period where it went horribly wrong for them)

Dece
09-26-2012, 11:19 PM
What seems to be being missed here, and I admit I didn't read every post, is that our starters only play 28-32 minutes a game. Superstars tend to play 38-42. That's 10 minutes a game more. It doesn't really matter if for 30 minutes our starting crew is the best 5 in the world, which I don't think they are - but for the sake of argument let's say it's true, when other team's best players play 10 more minutes than ours.

cgg
09-27-2012, 12:03 AM
What seems to be being missed here, and I admit I didn't read every post, is that our starters only play 28-32 minutes a game. Superstars tend to play 38-42. That's 10 minutes a game more. It doesn't really matter if for 30 minutes our starting crew is the best 5 in the world, which I don't think they are - but for the sake of argument let's say it's true, when other team's best players play 10 more minutes than ours.

They played more in that series. DG and DW played around 38-40.

BillS
09-27-2012, 10:44 AM
I mean there's not a whole lot you can do when LBJ and Wade are hitting 15 foot contested runners every time down the court. You just have tip your hat and say GG. That's what changed the series in a big way on the court. Wade and Lebron added that move to their arsenal basically between game 2 and 4 (using game 3 as an adjustment period where it went horribly wrong for them)

Well, yes, you can answer with points on your own next possession. Where the bench fell down was in not being able to at least answer part of the time during a run, and where the starters fell down was in not being able to do more than keep up with the scoring when they were in.

Ultimately, it doesn't matter who gets the points, it's team points per possession that counts. DW and LBJ can be point machines, but if the Pacers can manufacture points through aggressive play (drawing fouls), and taking advantage of mismatches away from the superstars when such are available, they have a chance. Would it be easier if there was a matching DW and LBJ on our team? Of course, but it doesn't mean that the lack of same creates an impossible situation, only a very tough one.

Coopdog23
09-27-2012, 12:19 PM
[QUOTE=Nuntius;1503808]Advanced statistics say so:

Then you have an example to show just how silly statistics can be. Your statistical top starting five can't play with many teams in the league. That is the power of superstars, they trump balanced teams just about every time..... If you have watching the NBA for a number of years you should already know this. :cool:


It can be done. The Pacers can beat any team in the league. They have to be able to put 4 games of that together.

Dece
09-27-2012, 07:28 PM
Game 1: 3 starters played less than 30 minutes.
Game 2: 33 minutes Roy Hibbert, Paul George, 35 minutes George Hill to 43 minutes Lebron James
Game 3: 33 minutes Hibbert, Hill, George to 40 minutes Lebron James
Game 4: 28 minutes West, 30 Hill, 32 Hibbert to 44 minutes Lebron, 41 minutes Wade
Game 5: 4 starters under 30 minutes, West at 32.
Game 6: Win or go home, the only game our starters played near the minutes of their big guns, we still lose.

So no, our starters aren't on the floor enough, not even in the playoffs. Over half of our starting unit almost never goes over 33 minutes, we frequently have starters clock in under 30. Even in the playoffs. That's not gonna get it done unless you truly do have the best bench, reality is, I'd rather my best players on the floor longer, we need more endurance out of Hibbert and more trust in (and less fouling from) PG/GH so they can stay out there longer.

shags
09-27-2012, 09:20 PM
And the champion the Pacers are trying to emulate, the 2004 Detroit Pistons, all had their starters play significant minutes in the playoffs. Hamilton and Ben Wallace averaged 40, Billups 38, and Sheed and Prince 35 (including 4 overtime periods in 23 games). That's higher than the regular season averages of 38 (Ben), 35 (Hamilton and Billups), 33 (Prince), and 31 (Sheed).

For the Pacers, Granger and West averaged significantly more during the playoffs (especially West). George did as well, as did Hill, although his stats are skewed because he didn't start until the end of the season. The biggest concern should be, and I think is, Hibbert, who went up 1 minute per game in the playoffs (30 to 31). He needs to be able to effectively play 35 minutes a night in the playoffs. If he can't, that really hurts, because it's a good downgrade from him to Mahinmi.

Mad-Mad-Mario
09-27-2012, 09:37 PM
And the champion the Pacers are trying to emulate, the 2004 Detroit Pistons, all had their starters play significant minutes in the playoffs. Hamilton and Ben Wallace averaged 40, Billups 38, and Sheed and Prince 35 (including 4 overtime periods in 23 games). That's higher than the regular season averages of 38 (Ben), 35 (Hamilton and Billups), 33 (Prince), and 31 (Sheed).

For the Pacers, Granger and West averaged significantly more during the playoffs (especially West). George did as well, as did Hill, although his stats are skewed because he didn't start until the end of the season. The biggest concern should be, and I think is, Hibbert, who went up 1 minute per game in the playoffs (30 to 31). He needs to be able to effectively play 35 minutes a night in the playoffs. If he can't, that really hurts, because it's a good downgrade from him to Mahinmi.

Hibberts problem is because Granger and George kept getting burned he kept getting put in bad positions when the guys penetrated. Hopefully better team defense can keep Hibbert in the game. Because as we all know. We won the game when Hibbert was on the court.

J7F
09-28-2012, 01:00 AM
LeBron could also play all of those minutes because they almost never called him for any fouls...

He was called for 5 fouls in six games played against us! Playing over 40 MPG! I know he's a great defender... But he ain't that good...

Ace E.Anderson
09-28-2012, 06:25 AM
Hibberts problem is because Granger and George kept getting burned he kept getting put in bad positions when the guys penetrated. Hopefully better team defense can keep Hibbert in the game. Because as we all know. We won the game when Hibbert was on the court.

NOBODY is keeping Wade and Lebron from getting drawing fouls and getting to the line, idc how good of a defender you are. Yes Roy had some foul trouble from time to time, but he also has a well documented cardiovascular issue where he can't play extended mins all the time. Obviously Roy puts in the work to battle that as much as he can, but nobody knows if he'll ever be able to play 33-35 mins a game in a series.

And this isn't to say that Granger and Paul played great D on those guys, but to expect them to shut those guys down is almost out of the question. The best thing you can do is play them tough and hope the refs allow physical play on both ends. You also can't let the other guys (Haslem, Battier) hit shots on you

Mad-Mad-Mario
09-28-2012, 12:31 PM
NOBODY is keeping Wade and Lebron from getting drawing fouls and getting to the line, idc how good of a defender you are. Yes Roy had some foul trouble from time to time, but he also has a well documented cardiovascular issue where he can't play extended mins all the time. Obviously Roy puts in the work to battle that as much as he can, but nobody knows if he'll ever be able to play 33-35 mins a game in a series.

And this isn't to say that Granger and Paul played great D on those guys, but to expect them to shut those guys down is almost out of the question. The best thing you can do is play them tough and hope the refs allow physical play on both ends. You also can't let the other guys (Haslem, Battier) hit shots on you

Wow cool your jets. I never said you had to shut down Lebron or Wade. We just need to play better defense on them, so that they can't just penetrate at will.

BillS
10-01-2012, 09:33 AM
Wow cool your jets. I never said you had to shut down Lebron or Wade. We just need to play better defense on them, so that they can't just penetrate at will.

Add to that forcing them to work harder on defense by bricking fewer shots...

vnzla81
10-01-2012, 09:47 AM
LeBron could also play all of those minutes because they almost never called him for any fouls...

He was called for 5 fouls in six games played against us! Playing over 40 MPG! I know he's a great defender... But he ain't that good...

Danny jacking up shots didn't put any pressure on Lebron to draw fouls.

OlBlu
10-01-2012, 10:00 AM
LeBron could also play all of those minutes because they almost never called him for any fouls...

He was called for 5 fouls in six games played against us! Playing over 40 MPG! I know he's a great defender... But he ain't that good...

He is when he is playing against a team that does not penetrate but only forces long jump shots... He could defend them for a week without fouling.... If you want to get fouls on him, take him inside. We don't have anyone who can do that......:cool: ...

HibbyGo
10-01-2012, 10:22 AM
Just one of Wade or LeBron suffering a season-ending injury would make Miami beatable. We can take Boston Senior Citizens with relative ease, so we're one lucky injury away from being the front-runners in the East. We'd then have to pull the upset in the Finals.

The Lakers look like monsters on paper, but the games aren't played on paper. Detroit proved superstarless teams can beat on-paper champions back in '04. It would take great chemistry and caching, but it can be done.

And we're one injury away from not even going to the playoffs. I don't see how we could use this as a beacon of hope let alone even mentioning lebron getting a season ending injury which is most likely not going to hapen since he's the complete opposite of injury prone.

J7F
10-01-2012, 05:57 PM
Good points by Blu and VNZLA... He received marginally more fouls in the other series...

I still felt while watching the series that there were some aggressive defensive plays he made with no calls when there could have been... But it was the Playoffs... So I somewhat understand the refs just letting them play...

vnzla81
10-01-2012, 07:29 PM
Good points by Blu and VNZLA... He received marginally more fouls in the other series...

I still felt while watching the series that there were some aggressive defensive plays he made with no calls when there could have been... But it was the Playoffs... So I somewhat understand the refs just letting them play...

Remember when Danny called himself a "decoid"? Many times Danny was on a corner playing "decoid" not putting any pressure on Lebron, not only that but it also helped Lebron to save energy.

Cactus Jax
10-01-2012, 07:38 PM
Hibbert's main fault is his endurance and I don't think that's going to change honestly. He'll never be the 35-40 mpg player unless he mails it in on defense for a lot of that time. I hope Mahinmi is a solid find and can try to cover the rest of those minutes decently, cause Lou and Tyler were awful in the playoffs.

LetsTalkPacers84
10-01-2012, 07:39 PM
Did anyone see the bleaher report article saying the Pacers won't even "sniff" the postseason. Wow, what a joke. I think the post stupid things just to get hits.
Here (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1353792-5-2012-nba-playoff-teams-that-wont-return-in-2013/page/4)

OlBlu
10-01-2012, 07:42 PM
Did anyone see the bleaher report article saying the Pacers won't even "sniff" the postseason. Wow, what a joke. I think the post stupid things just to get hits.
Here (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1353792-5-2012-nba-playoff-teams-that-wont-return-in-2013/page/4)

I don't agree with that but a case could be made that the Pacers will be in a battle for the eighth spot......:cool: ...

Nuntius
10-01-2012, 11:08 PM
Did anyone see the bleaher report article saying the Pacers won't even "sniff" the postseason. Wow, what a joke. I think the post stupid things just to get hits.
Here (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1353792-5-2012-nba-playoff-teams-that-wont-return-in-2013/page/4)

:laugh::laugh::laugh:

4 Eastern teams, 1 Western team.

Apparently, the East will have fewer playoff seeds this season ;)

Peck
10-02-2012, 12:13 AM
Remember when Danny called himself a "decoid"? Many times Danny was on a corner playing "decoid" not putting any pressure on Lebron, not only that but it also helped Lebron to save energy.

Again you blame Granger for something that is not in his control. He does not get to call the plays or designate his role in the offense. He couldn't do it under Carlisle, O'Brien or now Vogel.

That is the job of the coach & if you want to call it a mistake then you need to look to the bench & not Danny.

WhoLovesYaBaby?
10-02-2012, 01:34 AM
Everybody in the NBA (aside from Eddy Curry) is working hard and improving their game.

HOw true.

Someone was just foolish enough to sign Curry!(Utah?)

I read an article where Curry claimed he was working hard to get in shape. Meaning he was only visiting 3 McDonalds per day instead of 4.

Trader Joe
10-02-2012, 01:46 PM
I don't agree with that but a case could be made that the Pacers will be in a battle for the eighth spot......:cool: ...

Really? Let's hear it then.