PDA

View Full Version : Some OJ Mayo Analysis



ESutt7
07-07-2012, 09:24 AM
Thought these might be helpful to anyone interested in Mayo. I made some assumptions based on stats that may not be correct. I thought these were some really good analytical pieces on Mayo:

http://www.memphisflyer.com/BeyondtheArc/archives/2009/10/27/season-preview-projecting-oj-mayo
http://www.memphisflyer.com/BeyondtheArc/archives/2010/10/12/season-preview-oj-mayo-revisited
http://www.memphisflyer.com/BeyondtheArc/archives/2011/01/28/why-the-grizzlies-shouldnt-trade-oj-mayo
http://www.memphisflyer.com/BeyondtheArc/archives/2012/02/29/mid-season-player-notes-oj-mayo

I had assumed that his increased scoring the first 2 seasons was because he had the ball in his hands more and was able to create for himself. While that may be true to a degree, it appears he is not a great creator, but is a very good to great shooter. While that would still help us, what we REALLY need is someone to create for our guys who are (mostly) similar to Mayo in this respect. Each can get to the rim sometimes and finish ok, but are good shooters (Hill, PG, DG, even DC).

We need someone that can just get to the rim at will, even if he's not a great shooter, like Tyreke Evans or some other slasher like that. I think Mayo would still be an upgrade, particularly over Barbosa, but he may not be the solution we were hoping he could be.

For those that didn't want to read, the basic version is that Mayo is definitely not a PG, and not a ball dominant 2 guard you can run an offense through like Wade or JJ. He instead compares most favorably to Ray Allen, which is not at all a bad thing, but doesn't solve our specific issues.

Ace E.Anderson
07-07-2012, 10:47 AM
Good finds!! Mayo is the type of player to catch the ball off a screen and shoot a floater. He definitely has a good in between game as well. Where I think his greatest strength lies in his ability to get his shot off against pressure defense. A lot of those shots may be jumpers or floaters, but they're food shots that he can definitely knock down. Which is still something this tean lacks.

Steagles
07-07-2012, 11:22 AM
He may be another combo but he is still something to help the team

BrownBearCoffee
07-07-2012, 11:23 AM
Thanks for the analysis. Mayo is a good shooter, but I have watched this guy play several times and he definitely can create his own shot much better than anyone we currently have on the roster.

CableKC
07-07-2012, 11:40 AM
I still don't understand this whole "create his own shot" thing.

Is there a video of him doing this so that I can see an example of this?

BrownBearCoffee
07-07-2012, 11:45 AM
I still don't understand this whole "create his own shot" thing.

Is there a video of him doing this so that I can see an example of this?

Basically that he is fast enough with tight handles to get his own shot or get to the rim. He doesn't need a point guard to set his offense up for him. This video might give an idea?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecdHWA365Xk&feature=related

Kraft
07-07-2012, 11:51 AM
Anyone can create their own shot. It's the quality of that shot that matters when it's not some superlative player that makes bad shots, a la Wade and Kobe.

Flailing shots in the lane and fall-away 20-footers are the bad kind. Creating space off the dribble for a 14-footer is far better.

I think that's what people are looking for in Mayo.

*astrisk*
07-07-2012, 11:55 AM
I still don't understand this whole "create his own shot" thing.

Is there a video of him doing this so that I can see an example of this?

The best scorers in the nba have the ability to beat their defender 1 on 1, to either get to the rim or get a shot off and make it. These plays are called iso's or isolation's... we have 2 players that we use to do this, DC and gh3... The only time we see this is at the end of quarters tho, because we aren't very effective. Actually some times we run isos through DWest in the post...

The best scorers, Kobe, Ellis, Carmello, get Isos called for them ALL the time...

ESutt7
07-07-2012, 12:12 PM
The other plus, as one of the analyses points out, and as GrangeRusHibbert pointed out, is that Mayo and Gordon are remarkably similar statistically. Gordon making the USA World Championships team and playing well there elevated his profile, while OJ was used as a 6th man for the first time in Memphis. That started the difference in perception between the two. EJ was being used as a go-to player and averaged over 20 ppg, while OJ adjusted to being a 6th man and struggled. Last season Gordon basically didn't play.

EJ's FGA per game went 12, 13, 17, 16 in his 4 seasons, a steady progression of "go-to" guy status on bad teams. OJ's went 16, 14, 10, 11 as he went from starter to 6th man. We could have seen OJ have 20 ppg seasons too if the Grizz hadn't made the switch and if he had continued getting 16 FGA.

Point being, OJ when in a similar situation as Gordon has put up very similar numbers, so there might not be a big difference in star quality/potential between the two, but a massive difference in price. Neither may be a true "star" but OJ's price should be much more reasonable for what he actually brings to the table.

Eleazar
07-07-2012, 03:36 PM
The other plus, as one of the analyses points out, and as GrangeRusHibbert pointed out, is that Mayo and Gordon are remarkably similar statistically. Gordon making the USA World Championships team and playing well there elevated his profile, while OJ was used as a 6th man for the first time in Memphis. That started the difference in perception between the two. EJ was being used as a go-to player and averaged over 20 ppg, while OJ adjusted to being a 6th man and struggled. Last season Gordon basically didn't play.

EJ's FGA per game went 12, 13, 17, 16 in his 4 seasons, a steady progression of "go-to" guy status on bad teams. OJ's went 16, 14, 10, 11 as he went from starter to 6th man. We could have seen OJ have 20 ppg seasons too if the Grizz hadn't made the switch and if he had continued getting 16 FGA.

Point being, OJ when in a similar situation as Gordon has put up very similar numbers, so there might not be a big difference in star quality/potential between the two, but a massive difference in price. Neither may be a true "star" but OJ's price should be much more reasonable for what he actually brings to the table.

While true, this could be said about a lot of players. Usually there is a reason why one player takes the 16 shots and the other doesn't. Give just about any guard on the Pacers 16 shots and they will average about 20ppg, that doesn't mean it is a good idea to have Jones taking 16 shots every game. There is more to it than a straight statistical match in one subject.

If you go to 82games.com and look at the net production for both of them from their rookie season to this past season, with Gordon you see a clear and obvious growth. He starts out with a net of -0.3 then steadily improves that to +5.6, while Mayo starts at -0.8, goes to -1.0, then -5.1, before finishing this past season with a +0.3. If you look at advance statistics you will see that Gordon is better in almost every area. In some areas it is by a huge margin. There is a reason Gordon is considered to be a better player when healthy, although you would have to be an idiot to pay him max with his health issues.

mattie
07-07-2012, 04:05 PM
They actually aren't close statistically. GrangeRushHibbert always leaves out an extremely key statistic: Efficiency. OJ Mayo has always shot a **** poor shooting percentage his entire career while EJ has always been great to average efficiency scoring the ball. Also, if you watch the two play, other than watching highlights on youtube, you'll see why. EJ is just a much more skilled player offensively. He has unlimited range, can use his body to punish defenders and has phenomenal footwork.