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View Full Version : If the Pacers Sign/Don't Sign Roy To the Max, I'll...



BillS
07-01-2012, 12:48 PM
This is a poll to help me confirm or deny that the FO is in a lose/lose proposition when it comes to this situation.

From reading the forum it seems there are just as many people who will go off on the FO if we sign Roy as there are those who will go off on the FO if we don't sign.

Poll will be to see if that perception is correct.

If so, I hope people can refer back to this whenever some faction argues that a course of action is a "no-brainer" when there is another faction arguing that the OPPOSITE course is a "no-brainer".

It's been a while since I did a poll, so bear with me...

Steagles
07-01-2012, 12:51 PM
I don't think he is worth the max but in the NBA you are worth what the highest bidder pays. I will be upset if we don't resign him. If we do, I'll grudgingly smile.

The Future
07-01-2012, 12:53 PM
Player A
13.1 PPG, 7.7 reb, 2.1 AST, 1.6 BLK
Player B
12.8 PPG, 8.8 reb, 1.9 AST, 2.0 BLK



So who would you rather sign?

Player A with around 5 million a year or Player B with a max offer?

Hicks
07-01-2012, 12:54 PM
If he leaves it will be another blow to my long-term interest in the team, but it won't be the final straw that breaks my back. Just ONE OF the straws.

Heisenberg
07-01-2012, 12:55 PM
Player A
13.1 PPG, 7.7 reb, 2.1 AST, 1.6 BLK
Player B
12.8 PPG, 8.8 reb, 1.9 AST, 2.0 BLK



So who would you rather sign?

Player A with around 5 million a year or Player B with a max offer?
B because I know it's Roy.

Kstat
07-01-2012, 01:01 PM
Player A
13.1 PPG, 7.7 reb, 2.1 AST, 1.6 BLK
Player B
12.8 PPG, 8.8 reb, 1.9 AST, 2.0 BLK



So who would you rather sign?

Player A with around 5 million a year or Player B with a max offer?

I'll take the guy that raised his averages to 12/11/3 in the playoffs, including a series against the eventual NBA champs.

you also forgot to mention that player B shoots %5 better from the floor than player A, and player A has only had one healthy season in the last 5 years...

PacersHomer
07-01-2012, 01:04 PM
I don't know if I could support a team that clearly doesn't care about winning at all.

Hicks
07-01-2012, 01:05 PM
Who is this wonderful player A that we 'foolishly' are not signing or trading for?

Heisenberg
07-01-2012, 01:06 PM
Who is this wonderful player A that we 'foolishly' are not signing or trading for?Chris Kaman's empty stat sheet on a made up contract.

Hicks
07-01-2012, 01:07 PM
Chris Kaman's empty stat sheet on a made up contract.

Ah. Nice.

idioteque
07-01-2012, 01:08 PM
I will self-immolate in front of CFH? Meh, what can you do if we don't match. My interest in the team will decline for sure. I mean, I understand Indiana is not a top-flight free agent destination, but if we can't attract players OR even retain our own talent, I might as well stop wasting my time.

The Future
07-01-2012, 01:08 PM
I'll take the guy that raised his averages to 12/11/3 in the playoffs, including a series against the eventual NBA champs.

you also forgot to mention that player B shoots %5 better from the floor than player A, and player A has only had one healthy season in the last 5 years...

You aren't winning a championship with Roy Hibbert labeled as your max/best player.

Sorry buddy.

Kstat
07-01-2012, 01:10 PM
You aren't winning a championship with Roy Hibbert labeled as your max/best player.

Sorry buddy.

Good to hear. The NBA finals taught me that every NBA team was only allowed one max player.

idioteque
07-01-2012, 01:12 PM
You aren't winning a championship with Roy Hibbert labeled as your max/best player.

Sorry buddy.

I don't think Kstat cares one way or another if the Pacers win the title!

The Future
07-01-2012, 01:14 PM
Good to hear. The NBA finals taught me that every NBA team was only allowed one max player.

So you believe Hibbert deserves a max contract?

To be honest, if it was around Gortat's salary, that would be great value for this team.

Max is vastly overpaid. Around 10 would be good for this team to have a much better chance to compete in the future and give us more flexibility.

Gortats contract:
2011-12: $6,790,640.
2012-13: $7,258,960.
2013-14: $7,727,280.
2014-15: UFA

wintermute
07-01-2012, 01:16 PM
As I've said elsewhere, this is a no-brainer. Match or lose your asset.

My preference is to keep Hibbert, but depending on the situation, I may be able to understand if the FO decides to trade him (either in an S&T or later on down the road). But match the dang contract first!

So I guess my response kind of doesn't fit in with your poll, but it seems to me to be the most rational way of looking at it.

idioteque
07-01-2012, 01:17 PM
So you believe Hibbert deserves a max contract?

To be honest, if it was around Gortat's salary, that would be great value for this team.

Max is vastly overpaid. Around 10 would be good for this team to have a much better chance to compete in the future and give us more flexibility.

Gortats contract:
2011-12: $6,790,640.
2012-13: $7,258,960.
2013-14: $7,727,280.
2014-15: UFA

Two things

Marcin Gortat should fire his agent, and for the Suns he's probably untouchable. They are getting way too much bang for their buck to even consider trading Gortat. Of course I would love Gortat at that price, but the Suns would be so stupid to let him go.

Pace Maker
07-01-2012, 01:20 PM
reserve judgement until I see

A)how the team fares and how well Hibbert will play after signing him

B)how the team fares, what we do with cap space, how well Hibbert plays for another team

pizza guy
07-01-2012, 01:21 PM
EDIT: I don't feel like any of the poll options match my feelings close enough.

I'll be incredibly upset if Roy doesn't remain a Pacer AND we do nothing else to recoup the loss.

I like Roy as much as anyone, and I truly want to keep him here and watch him improve and be a HUGE part of this team's success for the foreseeable future. BUT, he's also not the only guy in the league that could help us. If letting him walk allows us to sign Deron Williams and we can swing a deal for Eric Gordon, call me satisfied.

I know a lot of people have been upset with things that players or office people have done, and if losing Roy means you'll no longer be a fan, then I wish you all the best with whatever team you choose to follow. But, to me, no player's actions, trade, free agency loss or gain will EVER trump the team's importance to me. Compare it to the Colts cutting Peyton Manning, one of the NFL's greatest all-time players. Sure, it sucks, I was surprised, and truckloads of people have all jumped bandwagons to Denver - but, I am personally more committed to the Colts heading into this season than the last few seasons because it's offensive to me that people will put a single player above the team. And we're talking about Peyton Manning.

Roy is great, he's a top-tier Center in the NBA right now, and I think he'll continue to improve. He's a great guy, awesome for PR, very engaging with the fans and he even follows me on Twitter. But losing him won't mean I'll jump ship on the Pacers. They're my team. Always will be. Heck, if we hung around for Tinsley and SJax, I think we can make it through anything.

So to answer the question, If the Pacers don't sign Roy to the Max (and he consequently leaves), I will still be a Pacers fan and will be upset for a time, but hopeful for other signings and players and the future of the franchise. If the Pacers DO sign Roy to the Max, I'll be happy that we get to keep one of my favorite Pacers since Reggie and hopeful for other signings and players and the future of the franchise.

PaceBalls
07-01-2012, 01:22 PM
Gortat was a minimally used backup for the Magic when he signed that contract, which was regarded as overpaying at the time. He would have been paid alot more if he had been an all star and starting center. It's hard to find bench guys and have them end up quality starting centers and quite a gamble.

We also have to look at Hibbert's growth since he arrived. He has gotten significantly better each year. I feel like last year was where he really started to dominate. I think he will keep following that trend and be even better next year. I mean really, has there ever been anyone in the NBA who has gone from where Roy was in college to where he is now? When people say upside Roy's career is a great example.

Kstat
07-01-2012, 01:25 PM
So you believe Hibbert deserves a max contract?

To be honest, if it was around Gortat's salary, that would be great value for this team.

Max is vastly overpaid. Around 10 would be good for this team to have a much better chance to compete in the future and give us more flexibility.

Gortats contract:
2011-12: $6,790,640.
2012-13: $7,258,960.
2013-14: $7,727,280.
2014-15: UFA

Gortat was given that contract as a backup. He is vastly underpaid. On the open market now, he'd be making $10-11 million easily.

I believe all star centers in their prime are worth $14 million. Thats still well below what the top players in the NBA make.

BringJackBack
07-01-2012, 01:34 PM
If we don't re-sign Hibbert, I can't watch this team. Hibbert is our most important player, and we can't ever beat Miami without him.

There is a small window of opportunity with him, and that is why he is worth it.

Pingu
07-01-2012, 01:38 PM
I think it's time for Hibbert to go. We have a hall-of-fame center in the making in Plumlee, and as long as Roy is here he will hinder his development.

OakMoses
07-01-2012, 01:39 PM
If the Pacers do or do not re-sign Hibbert, I will understand and I will still follow them with the same passion.

Sent from my DROID2 using Tapatalk 2

Nuntius
07-01-2012, 01:47 PM
I want us to match. If we don't, I'll be disappointed.

However, I'll still support the Pacers. Nothing will make me change the team I support. I may stop heavily following the NBA (I'll be working in the next semester so I might need some night sleep) but I'll always be a Pacers supporter :)

IndyPacer
07-01-2012, 01:55 PM
I think it's time for Hibbert to go. We have a hall-of-fame center in the making in Plumlee, and as long as Roy is here he will hinder his development.

You're probably right. Is it too late to change my vote? If Plumlee can score 6 ppg and 7 rpg as a senior in college, imagine what he can accomplish at the pro level. It's too bad we have to bother with these 4-year rookie contracts; we could lock Miles up for a max contract at 5 years otherwise.

pacers74
07-01-2012, 01:56 PM
I will never stop following the pacers. I will be disapointed kind of like I was when we let Brad Miller go.

Kstat
07-01-2012, 01:58 PM
I'll put it this way: God forbid Andre Drummond is putting up Hibbert numbers in 4 years, and we aren't paying him Roy Hibbert money, I will tear down the palace walls with my bare hands.

Ratking
07-01-2012, 02:11 PM
Player A
13.1 PPG, 7.7 reb, 2.1 AST, 1.6 BLK
Player B
12.8 PPG, 8.8 reb, 1.9 AST, 2.0 BLK



So who would you rather sign?

Player A with around 5 million a year or Player B with a max offer?

I dont think you can boil down Roy's defensive impact with blocks per game. His presence is what will keep us in the top 4 in the East. Now, if DC or Hill learn to feed him the ball where he needs it, we are contenders. If they cant, we trade for a PG who can. In no way can we contend without Roy. We cannot lose someone with his combination of skill and personality. Not as a small-market team.

Match regardless, and if he is suddenly changed for the worse personality-wise by his new contract, you know you have willing trade partners in Portland, who happen to have some fresh new draft picks that would look great in a Pacers uniform.

Can someone tell me what benefit there is to NOT match?

LG33
07-01-2012, 02:24 PM
The good news in all this is that if we don't give the money to Roy Hibbert, we'll have much more to give to George Hill.

rel
07-01-2012, 02:58 PM
whoops...picked the wrong one. I want Roy back. Max it up.

TheDon
07-01-2012, 03:38 PM
I'm really hoping that we end up matching and keep Roy, and that we also end up getting Steve Nash too. Point guard and center are the two hardest positions to fill in this league and if that was a reality I could care less who we have playing 2, 3, or 4 position. It we let Roy walk and do nothing to recoup that loss, I'll be demoralized from a fan perspective and probably not be as excited for the pacers going into the season but if I can survive as a fan through the brawl and obie ball I can take a hit like this and still be a fan of the Pacers.

gummy
07-01-2012, 03:51 PM
My choice was "If the FO DOESN'T sign Roy to the max I will be extremely angry but will still support the team." Still, I should note that it is possible that we can still get Roy without paying him his per year maximum.

If the Pacers can persuade Roy not to sign a max offer sheet for 4 years and can convince him to sign a 5 year deal with us that is more money overall than the 4 year max other teams can offer but a little less than the max he is eligible for per year...

I'll be quite happy. That is the best case scenario as far as I am concerned, particularly if we can structure the contract so as to preserve some flexibility to sign someone like Nash to a 2-3 year deal. I don't think this is a likely outcome but I also wouldn't be shocked if it happened.

aaronb
07-01-2012, 04:06 PM
I wonder what it would take to pry Greg Monroe from Detroit? In theory if we could

a) Do a sign and trade with Portland on Roy and get a 1st rounder
b) Use the cap savings for Eric Gordon or OJ Mayo
c) Deal Paul George and a pick for Greg Monroe to replace Hibby

Is that something that would improve out chances? Is it realistic?

Roaming Gnome
07-01-2012, 04:15 PM
Well... If the FO doesn't choose to bring Roy back. I'll still support the team, but I'll be looking for Hicks or some wayward PD member to take my wife's Season Ticket for next season.

FlavaDave
07-01-2012, 04:24 PM
I've heard people say "Hibbert doesn't deserve Lebron level money". He doesn't, and he won't get it. A LeBron-esque max deal this year starts at $17.5 mil. You need to have over 6 years experience to get it (unless the Derrick Rose rule applies).

This contract starts at $14 mil. That isn't overpaying. That is how much Hibbert is worth.

Here are the players who make between $13.5 and $15 mil, according to hoopshype:


<tbody>

20. Al Jefferson (http://hoopshype.com/players/al_jefferson.htm) Utah (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/utah.htm)



$15,000,000



20. Carlos Boozer (http://hoopshype.com/players/carlos_boozer.htm) Chicago (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/chicago.htm)


$15,000,000



22. Baron Davis (http://hoopshype.com/players/baron_davis.htm) Cleveland (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/cleveland.htm)


$14,850,000




23. Andre Iguodala (http://hoopshype.com/players/andre_iguodala.htm) Philadephia (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/philadelphia.htm)



$14,718,250




24. Manu Ginobili (http://hoopshype.com/players/emanuel_ginobili.htm) San Antonio (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/san_antonio.htm)



$14,107,492




25. Marc Gasol (http://hoopshype.com/players/marc_gasol.htm) Memphis (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/memphis.htm)



$13,891,359




26. Rashard Lewis (http://hoopshype.com/players/rashard_lewis.htm) New Orleans (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/new_orleans.htm)



$13,700,000




27. Kevin Love (http://hoopshype.com/players/kevin_love.htm) Minnesota (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/minnesota.htm)



$13,668,750




28. Tyson Chandler (http://hoopshype.com/players/tyson_chandler.htm) New York (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/new_york.htm)



$13,604,188




29. Emeka Okafor (http://hoopshype.com/players/emeka_okafor.htm) Washington (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/washington.htm)



$13,543,250


</tbody>
















Is that not where Hibbert belongs?

Eleazar
07-01-2012, 04:30 PM
I've heard people say "Hibbert doesn't deserve Lebron level money". He doesn't, and he won't get it. A LeBron-esque max deal this year starts at $17.5 mil. You need to have over 6 years experience to get it (unless the Derrick Rose rule applies).

This contract starts at $14 mil. That isn't overpaying. That is how much Hibbert is worth.

Here are the players who make between $13.5 and $15 mil, according to hoopshype:


<tbody>

20. Al Jefferson (http://hoopshype.com/players/al_jefferson.htm) Utah (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/utah.htm)



$15,000,000



20. Carlos Boozer (http://hoopshype.com/players/carlos_boozer.htm) Chicago (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/chicago.htm)


$15,000,000



22. Baron Davis (http://hoopshype.com/players/baron_davis.htm) Cleveland (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/cleveland.htm)


$14,850,000




23. Andre Iguodala (http://hoopshype.com/players/andre_iguodala.htm) Philadephia (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/philadelphia.htm)



$14,718,250




24. Manu Ginobili (http://hoopshype.com/players/emanuel_ginobili.htm) San Antonio (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/san_antonio.htm)



$14,107,492




25. Marc Gasol (http://hoopshype.com/players/marc_gasol.htm) Memphis (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/memphis.htm)



$13,891,359




26. Rashard Lewis (http://hoopshype.com/players/rashard_lewis.htm) New Orleans (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/new_orleans.htm)



$13,700,000




27. Kevin Love (http://hoopshype.com/players/kevin_love.htm) Minnesota (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/minnesota.htm)



$13,668,750




28. Tyson Chandler (http://hoopshype.com/players/tyson_chandler.htm) New York (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/new_york.htm)



$13,604,188




29. Emeka Okafor (http://hoopshype.com/players/emeka_okafor.htm) Washington (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/washington.htm)



$13,543,250


</tbody>
















Is that not where Hibbert belongs?

I think every single one of those players with only one or two exceptions are overpaid by anywhere from $3 million to $6 million, but I do think Hibbert is better than every single one of those players except for one or two exceptions.

FlavaDave
07-01-2012, 04:35 PM
I think every single one of those players with only one or two exceptions are overpaid by anywhere from $3 million to $6 million, but I do think Hibbert is better than every single one of those players except for one or two exceptions.

Does that speak to the fact that you might have a skewed perception of "overpaying"?

aaronb
07-01-2012, 04:36 PM
I think every single one of those players with only one or two exceptions are overpaid by anywhere from $3 million to $6 million, but I do think Hibbert is better than every single one of those players except for one or two exceptions.

I'd say right now Chandler, Love, Jefferson and Gasol are clearly better players. I'd put Roy in the Iguodala, Manu, Okafor tier of players.

PacersHomer
07-01-2012, 04:52 PM
I'd say right now Chandler, Love, Jefferson and Gasol are clearly better players. I'd put Roy in the Iguodala, Manu, Okafor tier of players.

Jefferson?

HC
07-01-2012, 04:57 PM
Jefferson?

Al is a nice player, but I wouldn't call him "clearly" better than Roy by any means.

McKeyFan
07-01-2012, 05:00 PM
Love Roy as a person, but he has several liabilities as well as strengths. With our inability to get our post players the ball, you wonder if we might do better with all that money getting a very talented perimeter player and a big or two that can defend the pick and roll. I hate the way the NBA has gone, but what's done is done.

If they have a real good option that follows letting Roy go, I'll be open.

Eleazar
07-01-2012, 05:17 PM
Does that speak to the fact that you might have a skewed perception of "overpaying"?

It is skewed compared to the NBA, but I also think the skew runs in my favor. You also have to consider I consider there to be an acceptable level of overpaying if you want to win a championship, otherwise I would hate having West on this team. If you payed every player exactly what they are worth and no more you will never build a championship team, because there will always be a team willing to pay a player more than they are worth. I also don't subscribe to the concept that market value, is equal to the actual worth of an item as this concept has been disproven at almost every single chance it gets.

My personal scale goes something like this.

For PFs/Cs, if they are being payed what most of those are being paid, and are the most important player on their team their team should be around .500. That automatically puts 4 of those players in the overpayed category, none of them should be making more than $10million. That only leaves Al Jefferson and Marc Gasol. For Jefferson to be worth $15 million I would expect middle of the pack playoff team which is not the case, so this puts him at the low end of the spectrum (overpayed by $3 million). Then there is Marc Gasol, who might actually be a little underpayed.

For wing/PG players I have less expectations, and look more towards individual production. I think Ginobli is about spot on, and Iggy I think isn't too far off certainly within an acceptable level of overpay. While neither Davis nor Lewis should even be close to being on that list.


On a side note there are always exceptions to these rules, Love may fall into this category, because of the players around him, but I'm still iffy on if he is as good as his stats suggest or if playing with the playing with skews his numbers up because he is the best player on the team.

Kstat
07-01-2012, 05:25 PM
I wonder what it would take to pry Greg Monroe from Detroit? In theory if we could

a) Do a sign and trade with Portland on Roy and get a 1st rounder
b) Use the cap savings for Eric Gordon or OJ Mayo
c) Deal Paul George and a pick for Greg Monroe to replace Hibby

Is that something that would improve out chances? Is it realistic?

Monroe is our franchise. Everything we've done since 2010 is build the team around him.

This is coming from one of Paul george's biggest fans outside of Indiana. I love him as a role player. If we ever traded Monroe for him, I'd gouge my eyes out.

diamonddave00
07-01-2012, 05:26 PM
I'm guessing the Pacers offer to Roy Hibbert was with in a mil each year of the max- pkus it had a 5th guanteed year the other teams can't give him. This to me covers Roy in case it offers a year extra if he were to play more poorly than expected or is injured. Seems very fair to me.

aaronb
07-01-2012, 05:26 PM
Al is a nice player, but I wouldn't call him "clearly" better than Roy by any means.

Al Jefferson's career averages in Pts, and Rebounds are better than Hibby's career high in any season. For all the love people are giving Hibbert. He's a career 11/6 player. That's basically Kevin Duckworth production.

Kstat
07-01-2012, 05:28 PM
Roy hibbert sitting down is still a more intimidating defender than al jefferson. Stop basing everything around his offensive stats.

aaronb
07-01-2012, 05:30 PM
Monroe is our franchise. Everything we've done since 2010 is build the team around him.

This is coming from one of Paul george's biggest fans outside of Indiana. I love him as a role player. If we ever traded Monroe for him, I'd gouge my eyes out.

I figured he'd be untouchable. I'd be willing to go 2 1st rounders, Paul George and take back Charlie Villenueva if that would work. I just prefer a more mobile center.

aaronb
07-01-2012, 05:31 PM
Roy hibbert sitting down is still a more intimidating defender than al jefferson. Stop basing everything around his offensive stats.

Hibby isn't very agile. He's also mostly been a weak rebounder since he's been a pro. I think his defense tends to me really over rated.

Kstat
07-01-2012, 05:35 PM
I figured he'd be untouchable. I'd be willing to go 2 1st rounders, Paul George and take back Charlie Villenueva if that would work. I just prefer a more mobile center.

We can still amnesty Charlie Villanueva. We sacrificed a first round pick in the Gordon deal so that we would be able to keep our provision.

The issue is with Monroe on Indiana, those 1st rounders won't be worth much. It's why Atlanta was happy to offer picks for Joe Johnson.

Also, Monroe isn't a natural center. Even the pistons don't think he's a center, which is why they drafted Drummond.

hoosierguy
07-01-2012, 05:38 PM
I figured he'd be untouchable. I'd be willing to go 2 1st rounders, Paul George and take back Charlie Villenueva if that would work. I just prefer a more mobile center.

While we're at it let's see what it would take to get Durant fomo the Thunder or LeBron from the Heat. What part of "franchise player" do you not understand?

Eleazar
07-01-2012, 05:42 PM
Hibby isn't very agile. He's also mostly been a weak rebounder since he's been a pro. I think his defense tends to me really over rated.

He was a weak rebounder when Troy Murphy was here, but has since been about average. He certainly isn't a spectacular rebounder, but he isn't a weak on either anymore.

aero
07-01-2012, 05:47 PM
I don't know if I could support a team that clearly doesn't care about winning at all.

took the words right out of my mouth. The Pacers MUST sign Roy. Could Simon's lack of interest in re-signing Roy be one of the reasons Larry Legend walked? He knew Simon didnt want to be a contender? hmm...good for though.

Lance George
07-01-2012, 05:48 PM
David Lee can give a team everything Greg Monroe can.

Anyway, if we don't re-sign Hibbert, I'll be completely disgusted. It'll be nothing short of a total disaster for this franchise. The offseason where we're suppose to take the next step toward becoming the clear-cut #2 team in the conference, and here we are letting our most important player walk away, all because he'll be making about $2M more -- the average price of a 9th man -- than we'd like.

A total disaster..

BillS
07-01-2012, 05:53 PM
took the words right out of my mouth. The Pacers MUST sign Roy. Could Simon's lack of interest in re-signing Roy be one of the reasons Larry Legend walked? He knew Simon didnt want to be a contender? hmm...good for though.

What part of "First priority is to sign our own FAs" did you choose to ignore?

There's speculation and there's flying completely in the face of every single public statement ever made.

shags
07-01-2012, 07:40 PM
took the words right out of my mouth. The Pacers MUST sign Roy. Could Simon's lack of interest in re-signing Roy be one of the reasons Larry Legend walked? He knew Simon didnt want to be a contender? hmm...good for though.

I think you're right. If there's any poker players out there, the Pacers are basically "pot committed" at this point with Hibbert. Portland's offer will be around 4 years, $55 million. While that may be slightly overpaid, the Pacers have to match.

Hicks
07-02-2012, 12:01 AM
Well... If the FO doesn't choose to bring Roy back. I'll still support the team, but I'll be looking for Hicks or some wayward PD member to take my wife's Season Ticket for next season.

It'll have to be someone other than me. I can barely see justifying the purchase to get back in next season with my current situation, and I can sure as hell tell you I will NOT be motivated to even try to find the money after this. Not unless they have one HELL of a plan B.

Hicks
07-02-2012, 12:05 AM
What part of "First priority is to sign our own FAs" did you choose to ignore?

There's speculation and there's flying completely in the face of every single public statement ever made.

#1 priority doesn't mean you're willing to pay what you have to pay to get it done. #1 priority means jack **** to me if they thought they'd get him for relatively cheap. That was a pipe dream. They had to know this was likely. So assuming they do, in fact, have a brain, which I'd like to think they do, they would have to be blowing smoke up our asses to say that and then watch him for because of Marc Gasol's contract (same years, same money, that he got last year).

wintermute
07-02-2012, 06:49 AM
As the old adage goes, people who love sausage and respect the law should not watch either being made. I suspect the principle applies to NBA deal-making as well. This, my friends, is what sausage making looks like.

We were all praises last year when our FO went hardball in negotiations with David West and Crawford. What makes us think they'd be less hardball with Roy, when they have RFA matching rights in their backpocket?

Here's how I see the situation. I don't know what offer Pacers opened up with, but its probably on the low end, I'd guess something like 5 years/$60m. That's a reasonable price for a starting center, but let's face it - Roy is the best FA big man in the market. So Roy and his agent shopped around and got a max offer commitment (reportedly from Portland and another team) for 4 years/$58m. They bring this back to the Pacers and tells them to up their offer. Now, not even Roy's agent would ever think that the Pacers will give him the absolute max (5 years/$79m), but a reasonable upper limit to their expectation would probably be the annual amount of the 4 year max, extended to 5 years. So let's say Roy is asking for 5 years/$70m from the Pacers (i.e. a non-max deal). If my analysis is reasonable, then that means the gap between the two sides is something like 5 years/$60m vs 5 years/$70m ... which isn't really a huge gap to bridge with 9 days of negotiation to go.

All the other stuff we hear (Roy "leaning" towards Portland, Pacers looking at other centers) is just negotiation ploys IMO. My prediction is that Hibbert will re-sign with the Pacers for 5 years with a contract between $60m and $70m. In fact, since I think Hibbert has better leverage, I'd probably narrow it down even further - I predict 5 years and between $65m-$70m. Now if we can just skip ahead a couple of weeks I think we'd all be happier :D

Reginald
07-02-2012, 08:36 AM
I think you're right. If there's any poker players out there, the Pacers are basically "pot committed" at this point with Hibbert. Portland's offer will be around 4 years, $55 million. While that may be slightly overpaid, the Pacers have to match.

Portland's offer is apparently 4 yrs/58M.

BRushWithDeath
07-02-2012, 09:18 AM
I am not at all excited to see my favorite team give Roy Hibbert $14+ million per year for 4-5 years. But the alternative is much worse.

This is a total no-brainer. I really don't understand all the handwringing.

Speed
07-02-2012, 09:23 AM
Does signing Roy to a max deal via matching.... jeopardize signing Paul George when the time comes?

able
07-02-2012, 09:37 AM
Portland can offer the following according the CBA:

For 2011-12 the league and players association agreed to use a set figure of $58.044 million as "salary cap"
Being in the league less than 6 years (In Roy's case 4) makes the MAX HE CAN START AT 25% of the CAP

They use a different cap calculation to determine the maximum salaries, which is based on 42.14% of projected BRI rather than 44.74%. For this reason, the maximum salaries are not actually 25%, 30% or 35% of the cap, and instead are a slightly lower amount. For example, even though the salary cap for 2011-12 is $58.044 million and 25% of this amount is $14.511 million, the 0-6 year maximum salary is actually $12,922,194.

4 years, 4.5% p/a raises

Year 1: 12,922,194
Year 2: 13,503,692
Year 3: 14,085,190
Tear 4: 14,666,688

Total : 55,177,762

Pacers CAN offer raises of 969,164 AND a 5th year.

BillS
07-02-2012, 10:37 AM
Year 1: 12,922,194
Year 2: 13,506,692
Year 3: 14,088,190
Tear 4: 14,669,688

Total : 55,186,762

So where is the 4/$58 number coming from that the max offer news stories are throwing around?

able
07-02-2012, 11:30 AM
So where is the 4/$58 number coming from that the max offer news stories are throwing around?


they became journalist after flunking math?

and by rounding up using 7.5% raises

Year 1: 12,922,192
Year 2: 13,891,356
Year 3: 14,860,520
Year 4: 15,829,685
Total : 57,503,754

Speed
07-02-2012, 11:53 AM
Sorry I'm missing it, if Roy comes to Indy for 4 years, he gets 58 million, if he goes to Portland for 4 years he gets 55? Is this correct?

able
07-02-2012, 12:12 PM
No,

If he signs the offersheet for Portland, he will get exactly what is on that sheet, i.e. maximum 55,186,762 over 4 years.
The Pacers can OFFER 57,503,754 + 16,798,850 in a 5th year (so max 5/74,302,604)

And before you go thinking he will get that, remember either num er is based on BRI splits and the owners as well as the players were pretty sure that the 10% of escrow will stay where it is so he will get 10% less which is a sizeable chunk

Roy would start at or near where MOST people on this board had him pegged anwyay, and perhaps a million or so over others, but the term max has given pictures and calculations of 20 mio per year starting.

Naptown_Seth
07-02-2012, 12:56 PM
This is a poll to help me confirm or deny that the FO is in a lose/lose proposition when it comes to this situation.

From reading the forum it seems there are just as many people who will go off on the FO if we sign Roy as there are those who will go off on the FO if we don't sign.

Poll will be to see if that perception is correct.

If so, I hope people can refer back to this whenever some faction argues that a course of action is a "no-brainer" when there is another faction arguing that the OPPOSITE course is a "no-brainer".

It's been a while since I did a poll, so bear with me...
Good poll, I like the options and the wording. Seems like a fair set of choices to vote on. And it looks like the results match the vibe. It's a tough choice, a crossroads, and it sucks.

BillS
07-02-2012, 01:05 PM
Good poll, I like the options and the wording. Seems like a fair set of choices to vote on. And it looks like the results match the vibe. It's a tough choice, a crossroads, and it sucks.

Actually, based SOLELY on the poll, it looks like matching is the best way to keep fans in the seats. While quite a few people would disagree with the signing, the ones who are against signing are nowhere near as vehement about it as the ones who want him signed.

If this were scientific and the %ages matched Pacer fans as a whole (which it IS NOT and they DO NOT, I bring this up to demonstrate what risk analysis means), NOT signing Roy could result in an actual loss of attendance and fanbase for the Pacers, while signing him results in some complaining but no loss of attendance or fanbase.

Bear in mind the questions don't take into account second order effects (as mentioned by some responders) like "what is plan B" in the not signed case and "what effect does it have on improving other positions" in the signed case.

ChicagoJ
07-02-2012, 01:13 PM
If the Pacers don't re-sign Roy, I will be extremely angry but at least I won't have to worry about buying playoff tickets and commuting to playoff games next spring. I'll still support them, but it will cost me less to watch a lottery-bound team begin looking again for a legit center.

The price to re-sign Roy is the cost of keeping a young playoff team together.

ChicagoJ
07-02-2012, 01:16 PM
As the old adage goes, people who love sausage and respect the law should not watch either being made. I suspect the principle applies to NBA deal-making as well. This, my friends, is what sausage making looks like.


Exactly. Thanks.

Mac_Daddy
07-02-2012, 01:18 PM
If the offer isn't matched, I'll be upset that we're losing a guy of his caliber but I can understand if the team is looking to stay competitive in future free-agent periods. I just think it would be a waste of how well Roy has interacted with teammates and fans alike. He's a good PR guy for a team that has really needed it for a while. And he's a good player on top of it.

edc
07-03-2012, 01:58 AM
Its ok to lose roy. He is not worth the maximum salary.

I watched the pacers-miami playoff series. He got outmuscled by......whats the name of the heat frontcourt players?

Kstat
07-03-2012, 03:37 AM
Its ok to lose roy. He is not worth the maximum salary.

I watched the pacers-miami playoff series. He got outmuscled by......whats the name of the heat frontcourt players?

Then you didn't really watch the pacers-heat playoff series....

edc
07-03-2012, 10:32 AM
One game of that series does not warrant a maximum pay.

Miami played without bosh most of the series.

Kstat
07-03-2012, 10:33 AM
...and Indiana played without a point guard for the entire series...

docpaul
07-03-2012, 12:00 PM
Hmm.

For some reason, there seems to be some kind of mental block around the idea of a "max contract". In reality, as Able points out... the offer that Portland has supposedly made available is not so outrageous as to overvalue him. For kicks, I pumped these numbers into an editable spreadsheet that I've played with over the past year:

http://pgb.me/pacercap

Some observations I had when looking at Hibbert's reported offer, if we choose to match it:

1) We're going to be players in free agency for the next couple of years. West's contract expires next year, Granger's contract expires the year after that. Literally the only player we've committed to up to this point is George Hill.
2) Hibbert would be the second highest paid player on the team this year.
3) If Hill signs at a starting deal @ $7m, then we're essentially up to the salary cap. However, there are a number of options for us, this year, to utilize that ~12mil in space between the salary cap and the lux tax line via Bird exceptions for Hibbert and Hill. I would not be surprised if the radio silence on our front relates to timing issues of their signings.
4) One more max contract (for the EG faithful out there) couldn't fit under the lux tax line unless we lost some players. Moving Hansbrough and/or Dahntay Jones could get us there. This makes a S&T more likely to get another big asset.
5) The rookie package for Plumlee is darn cheap.

BRushWithDeath
07-03-2012, 02:03 PM
Jesus. Did we really give Pendergraph $1.5 million per year?

The Sleeze
07-03-2012, 02:12 PM
Hmm.

For some reason, there seems to be some kind of mental block around the idea of a "max contract". In reality, as Able points out... the offer that Portland has supposedly made available is not so outrageous as to overvalue him. For kicks, I pumped these numbers into an editable spreadsheet that I've played with over the past year:

http://pgb.me/pacercap

Some observations I had when looking at Hibbert's reported offer, if we choose to match it:

1) We're going to be players in free agency for the next couple of years. West's contract expires next year, Granger's contract expires the year after that. Literally the only player we've committed to up to this point is George Hill.
2) Hibbert would be the second highest paid player on the team this year.
3) If Hill signs at a starting deal @ $7m, then we're essentially up to the salary cap. However, there are a number of options for us, this year, to utilize that ~12mil in space between the salary cap and the lux tax line via Bird exceptions for Hibbert and Hill. I would not be surprised if the radio silence on our front relates to timing issues of their signings.
4) One more max contract (for the EG faithful out there) couldn't fit under the lux tax line unless we lost some players. Moving Hansbrough and/or Dahntay Jones could get us there. This makes a S&T more likely to get another big asset.
5) The rookie package for Plumlee is darn cheap.

Not to mention the salary cap will increase after this year, so we'll have even more money to play with in the next couple years than what the chart shows.

daschysta
07-03-2012, 02:27 PM
It's a no brainer such that if it doesn't happen i'll be extremely disillusioned. We don't sign Roy we are automatically mediocre again. Luckily with the current front office regime i'm almost positive we will match.

edc
07-03-2012, 03:19 PM
There are few games in the regular season that roy mattered but its not really cool to pay him that much.

The playoff series against orlando with dwight howard and miami without bosh, he should dominate those games at least being the beast of froncourt players. But he got outmuscled in the offensive end.

Sandman21
07-03-2012, 05:29 PM
Think this would be rather fitting (other than the crap MS Paint editing job)

http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/3259/ifhibbertweriot100878.jpg

PacersHomer
07-03-2012, 06:25 PM
If we don't match him every time Roy has a better game than whoever our crappy starting center will be I'll make sure to remind Pritchard on Twitter.

Hicks
07-04-2012, 01:07 AM
Jesus. Did we really give Pendergraph $1.5 million per year?

Oh the humanity. This is almost as devastating as that Dahntay Jones contract.

jeffg-body
07-04-2012, 01:34 AM
If we do not match I will be pretty upset. The guy does everything asked of him, has had steady improvement in his time here and works his butt off. He is also big in the community and creates a positive image of the Pacers as a franchise. Either way, Roy will be paid like he should with truly dominant centers are becoming rare. My opinion in player's salary is to get what you can because the average professional athlete's career is about 6.3 years. You never know what could happen he might be ok today but one bad fall could end his career at any time.

pacer4ever
07-04-2012, 01:37 AM
Jesus. Did we really give Pendergraph $1.5 million per year?

I loved him coming out of the draft and still like his game.(even though he has yet to show it at the NBA level)


but really 1.5m?? Why do we bid against air that makes no sense the min would of landed him especially considering his health.

wintermute
07-04-2012, 02:50 AM
I loved him coming out of the draft and still like his game.(even though he has yet to show it at the NBA level)


but really 1.5m?? Why do we bid against air that makes no sense the min would of landed him especially considering his health.

Ah you guys realize that the minimum for a 2nd year player is something like 900k. Are we really *****ing about overpaying by 600k a year? That's nearly a rounding error in terms of team salaries.

Steagles
07-05-2012, 05:32 PM
If Herbie doesn't open his pockets and the FO doesn't stop lowballing people, I might just start cheering for the Nets. At least we know Prokhorov's willing to spend for a good team. This is the beginning of another PD mass suicide if Roy isn't matched.

Sollozzo
07-05-2012, 05:47 PM
If Herbie doesn't open his pockets and the FO doesn't stop lowballing people, I might just start cheering for the Nets. At least we know Prokhorov's willing to spend for a good team. This is the beginning of another PD mass suicide if Roy isn't matched.


I certainly won't be eager to go to as many games as I did the past several seasons, even though I live extremely close. All central Indiana taxpayers have a stake in that 33 million dollar handout that was given to the Simons two years ago, so we have the right to be upset if the team is cheap and doesn't re-up Roy. If the Pacers and Conseco were exclusively funded by the Simons then none of us would have the right to complain about how they spent their money. But that isn't the case. Millions and millions and millions of Indy taxpayer money has been funneled into this franchise.

I was at IU-Bloomington from 2006-2010, years that coincided with four of the worst seasons in modern Pacer history. I made quite a bit of trips up to Indy during those years to watch crappy Pacer basketball because I was confident that we had management/ownership that would be committed to turning the mess around. But if they don't match Roy and instead chose to be tight with their money, then maybe I'll be tight with mine.

IndyHoya
07-05-2012, 05:58 PM
I'll be very, very disappointed if we don't match on Roy Hibbert. I get the impression that the FO undervalues him. I don't get it. Our whole "smashmouth" concept was built around him. The result was an All-Star berth for Roy and a deep playoff run for the Pacers Other teams seem to think we have something in Hibbert. This from a Portland blog:

"Speaking of Roy, apparently the Dallas Mavericks are looking at the former All-Star as a potential replacement for Jason Terry, according to Mike Fisher of FoxSportsSouthwest. And Chicago head coach Tom Thibodeau spoke with Roy by phone about joining the Bulls, reports K.C Johnson of the Chicago Tribune."

Ummm....Pacers Front Office...Hello?

Roy Hibbert - All-Star, 7'2", true center, outstanding shot blocker and shot alterer, good defender, decent rebounder and scorer, steady, no off-court drama, terrific work ethic, loved in the community, young (only 25), great upside - stats have gone up every year, consistently healthy, instrumental in our playoff run, so....we play cheap and replace him with Chris Kaman?

Only downside I see with Roy is paying him screws our future salary cap space. It means we'll have to maneuver in the future to keep some of our other guys. But I like facing that when we have to face it. Without him, as I see it, we are in a total rebuilding mode, BLF goes back to being empty again, forget the playoffs and we have no immediate future. Also, just maybe we don't even have a team here in Indy in the future either.

We got to the second round of the Playoffs last year and were up on Miami 2-1. Roy had a lot to do with that. People were filling the arena again. Do we now dismantle the biggest piece of that and start all over again?

I say pay Roy. But before we match him try to land a FA that makes us better WITH Roy still on the roster. If we can't do that, then just sign Roy. Just coming back with what we have wouldn't be the end of the world. We're a very good team with what we have now. We're young and we've got every prospect of being even better. Getting a FA now isn't totally essential. If a good FA deal isn't doable, then retain the cap space we have and look to trade or acquire through a short-term deal like we did with Barbossa.

Roy's too important to what we have now IMHO to let him get away.

And yeah, I'm in Area 55 - but that's just another reason to bring Roy back. Nobody on the Pacers cares about the fans or the noise level in BLF like Roy. If you care about attendance, then saying no to your most popular player isn't a very smart move.

Suaveness
07-05-2012, 05:59 PM
Brandon Roy

Jeremy
07-05-2012, 06:00 PM
I keep going back and forth on whether I want the team to give him the max..

pezasied182
07-05-2012, 06:01 PM
If the only transactions the FO makes this offseason is $19 mil to Kaman and Hill, I'm going to be very very disappointed. Max for Hibbert is a stretch, but I would much rather have him for a couple mil more a year than Kaman. Keep in mind the Pacers were second to last in attendance last season. Losing one of the most popular players and replacing him with Kaman almost assures that the team will be last next year.

Also, as Kstat has said numerous times, if we had a point guard that could make a decent entry pass (i.e. not Hill) Hibbert would have dominated the paint against the Heat. How many times did Hibbert have position, only for Hill to try and throw the ball over the top, resulting in a turnover?