PDA

View Full Version : Tbird 2012 draft analysis #11: Best of the Rest



thunderbird1245
06-27-2012, 03:33 PM
As the 2012 NBA draft is now less than 30 hours away, it ist ime to put up some of my final thoughts on this years’ prospects that I did not fill out a full profile on. That isn’t to say that I didn’t put in the film time on them, but I am just not going to have the time necessary to post them all in typical 2500 word form. If we would happen to choose someone I have not profiled, I will post that summary of that particular player in the following days.

As you know by now, I posted in depth reviews on Arnett Moultrie, Fab Melo, Moe Harkless, Jeff Taylor, Marquis Teague, Orlando Johnson,Tyler Zeller, Andrew Nicholson, and Draymond Green…..if you haven’t read them and are curious, you can find them elsewhere on this site.

For now, here are the bulletpoints on the remaining prospects I did film work on:

1. DAMION LILLARD: I did film work on him early on in the process, back when I was hoping he’d be under the radar way more than he turned out to be……he can flat play….love how he plays at different speeds, and can change gears……outstanding shooter for a point guard with deep range……verygood handle and can execute any dribble move you want…..really good going left….great off ballscreens, great on catch and shoots, great on isolations, great playingoff the ball coming off screens….really nothing with the ball he doesn’t do well…..probably a slightly above average passer even though he so dominated scoring wise in college he didn’t pass much….not an uber athletic freak like Westbrook or Rondo, but a better shooter than either one….I think he projects as a top 6-8 point guard in the NBA, as long as you like the scoring type of point guards…..lacks a little defensively in terms of effort sometimes, but I bet he ramps that up to some at the next level….he would start for us from Day1 and he’d be worth moving up to get if you could do it somehow, which we can’t…….COMPARISON:A BETTER, BIGGER TONY PARKER OR KEVIN JOHNSON

2. KENDALL MARSHALL……UNC product with great offensive stats….however I think his stats are better than he plays…..not particularly strong going to his right, and he struggles to make perimetershots…..really good vision offensively, but I am not sure he reads defenses as well as you think coming from that system, which is more regimented……has injury concerns with his elbow though I’m not overly worried long term yet……very accurate passer, as he does a good job of not just decision making but in also hitting guys in their shooting pocket….ABSOLUTELY HORRIFIC DEFENDER IN COLLEGE…..I doubt he gets much better as a pro defensively…..since I highly value pointg uard defense, he doesn’t grade as well with me as he does others…..COMPARISON:JOSE CALDERON

3. WILL BARTON……6’6 rangy wing who is way too weak physically to play right now, long term type project…slinky…..gets through small spaces….awkward looking but effective.....very very active hands defensively, really good on the ball defender at tracing and mirroring the ball…..just plays so weak sometimes, guys with NBA strength will overwhelm him early I am afraid…..not a lot of range from deep but mid range game is good……great personality with a brash confidence about himself…..rebounded well despite lack of strength……COMPARISON: A POOR MAN’S VERSION OF MARQUIS DANIELS

4. AUSTIN RIVERS………….a smaller shooting guard witha dynamite crossover dribble and deep range…great first step with the ball, can get where he wants to go…..struggled to finish shots when help defenders came toward him, not a drive and dish guy as he wants to finish on his own….has NBA background and a lot of swagger, which for some can be off putting…..better shooter off the dribble than on a catch and shoot….gambles a lot defensively and was extremely man oriented, not a good team defender in college….played with inconsistent defensive effort….irrationally confident in his own game, he definitely is irrationally confident almost in his own abilities…..as a coach I absolutely hated watching him play and hated his body language on the floor…..I wouldn’t want him personally but I do see the talent with the ball as a scorer,but a scorer is all I think he is and all he might ever be….I am not a fan……COMPARISON:WORLD B. FREE, OR A POOR MAN VERSION OF MONTA ELLIS

5. DORON LAMB……DEADEYE SHOOTER….not great size or athlete but part of a winning team……can handle the ball just a smidgen, mightbe good enough to be a team’s 3rd point guard or play the positionin an emergency……works hard defensively but is just average at best, Anthony Davis made him look better than he really was….average athlete for an NBA 2guard….nothing really stands out as special about him other than shooting, and at Kentucky he didn’t have to read screens much in their offense, so questions on how he may translate……did seem willing to take and make big shots, good personality with a lot of self confidence……COMPARISON: SAM CASSELL

6. JOHN HENSON…….skinny post player who needs to add muscle to be a true factor in the NBA…..super long and active defenderthough…..a defensive force at times for UNC as a shotblocker……offensive game is coming along, but he will get pushed off the block at the NBA level if he doesn’tadd strength…runs the floor very well….good hands, good balance…..just kind of awkward looking offensively……needs a jump shot, not sure if he will develop one…..I do like the player and wish we had a shot at him somehow…..long term nice fit for us to play next to Hibbert once he gains 30lbs and experience…….COMPARISON: LARRY SANDERS

7. MEYERS LEONARD……didn’t like watching him play in college, didn’t like his body language or attitude……not sure what it is he does really well other than being big……didn’t always play hard I didn’t think…..stiff in the hips, doesn’t move his feet well in the post defensively….rebounded well but didn’t get that many boards outside his area……local kid from just outside TerreHaute, his mother is very ill…..didn’t seem like a winning player to me…..maybe I am missing something, as admittedly I didn’t study him all that much once I got turned off him, I am amazed he might go above Zeller, who in my view is way way better than him…..COMPARISON: BYRON MULLENS (who you may remember I also despised as a player coming out in the draft)

8. JARED SULLINGER……….well taught fundamentally sound offensive post player, played for his Dad in high school, who is a legendary coach in Ohio……very unathletic, absolutely can’t score over the top of you, has to bully his way inside to deep position…..not a bad passer but not great either…..he will be a defensive liability in the pro game as well……really struggles with length, and will struggle to guard the pick/roll……..he does nothing for me and I’d pass on him if he falls to #26 due to his back injury,though I don’t like the player disregarding the injury…….COMPARISON: CLARENCEWEATHERSPOON

9. SCOTT MACHADO……really good player in space, whenhe has time and room to survey the floor…..better in an open court type game……reallygood passer and hits people in rhythm and on time…….CAN’T DEFEND A LICK……slow and crosses his feet in a defensive slide, can’t pressure the ball well, has to back way off people at this level to be able to stay in front…..when screened he stands up and gets taken out of the play, really poor defensively all around, which is why they hid him in a zone so much…..such a defensive liability I don’t know if he sticks in the league long, I definitely wouldn’t take him personally…….COMPARISON: SARUNAS JASECIVISIOUS (I’m too lazy to check the actual spelling)

10. TYSHAWN TAYLOR….point guard who looks better than he actually plays…..very turnover prone, tries to force things too much…good size and strength…..poor decision maker, possibly system at Kansas was too restrictive and he will be better in open court game I don’t know…..has played poorly against teams that pressured him…..doesn’t seem to understand how to play the position offensively…..I do like him as a defender, and his attitude and length/toughness on that end will get him to stick in the league for awhile……veteran guy who has played in big games, but extremely turnover prone asmentioned above…..COMPARISON: RICH MAN’S MARCUS BANKS

11. JOHN JENKINS….DEADEYE SHOOTER, with an elite quick release……extremely efficient and smart, good cutter away from the ball……willbe a liability defensively, just an average athlete….a creative coach can runhim off screens to score, or can use him as a floor spacer for other elite guysto drive and dish to him, strictly a catch/shoot guy, I don’t think he can do much off the dribble at this level…..but great stroke from deep will keep him in the league: COMPARISON: DEQUAN COOK

12. DARIUS MILLER……REALLY NICE PULL UP JUMPER GAMEoff one dribble, gets high elevation, experienced and tough defender though he gives ground too easily and Anthony Davis behind him cleaned up some of his mistakes…..nice physical body…..winning attitude, I think he sticks in the league on somebody’s deep bench: COMPARISON: A BIGGER DAHNTAY JONES

13. QUINCY MILLER……long athlete with giant wingspan,will be a great size advantage potentially on the wing…..knee injury inDecember of 2011 hurt him in playing this season at Baylor…. He is crafty andhandles the ball extremely well for his size…. Inconsistent production, and in Baylor’s zone he didn’t get exposed much in NBA type defensive situations, butwhen he did he showed some major defensive flaws in terms of staying in astance and playing physical…..needs to add weight and strength obviously, but he is only 19….nation’s number one player out of high school before the knee injury…..high upside pick with a lot of potential as a scorer at the next level…..I believe he is a future NBA quality starter, but that it will take 2 or 3 years of bench time, so you have to be patient……COMPARISON: LAMAR ODOM

PLAYERS I DIDN’T REVIEW TAPE OF YET BUT WILL IF WE DRAFT THEM:
1. TONY WROTEN
2. TERRENCE ROSS
3. EVAN FOURNIER
4. FESTUS EZELI
5. PERRY JONES

As always, the above is just mopinion.
Tbird

Trader Joe
06-27-2012, 03:42 PM
Completely agree about Lillard, if we could trade up and get him somehow I would be thrilled. Right now he doesn't look like he's gonna slip past 6 though.

pacer4ever
06-27-2012, 03:51 PM
We agree on Lillard I said back when he was projected as a 2nd rd pick he would be a star in the NBA just crazy athletically and like you say maybe Drose and Westbrook are the only 2 guys who change speeds better. Combine that with his jumper leadership ablity and how unselfish he is I would take him #2 in this draft (or trade back if I had the pick and take him where others think he will go like 5 or 7 or whatever it is.


also agree on Rivers, Sullinger and Marshall. Leonard when I first started watching him I had that same view but his skills you have to gamble on the kid. I just hope he is coachable I still think the dis interst is due to some dis order he has does anyone know of that??

agree a ton with Darius Miller love him as a NBA role player


disagree with Barton I can see a rich mans Marquis with better scoring ability but defiantly not a poor mans. I do agree he is a project he will get a lot better with a few years of working out in the NBA in a NBA facility. If he can put on 20lbs (which isnt crazy he put on 14 in college) he should be fine.


Machado's defense isnt as bad IMO as you make it out to be. He did take plays off due to the system he played in. They had to keep him fresh all game. They did play zone almost every game to keep them fresh so I dont really get how you can grade his man defense when they rarely played it. By all means it will be average to poor in the NBA but it wont be any worse than most great backups or even some good starters. I know I would take Machado's defense of talents over a Jose Calderon for one he has better hands and all the things you mentioned are correctable. He isnt that quick laterally but I think with his skills you can afford to keep him. All he needs is a little bit of coaching and Vogel was a pg and so was Shaw (Shaw was a good defender he could really help develop Machado.

also they switched everything in PnR (almost all the time) that is why he really never fights on screens. I dont agree with switching because it gives the offense mismatches. I just think it was coaching style a main reason for that. He does play way to upright but I think you can fix that pretty easily and that will help a bit on defense.

With that said he needs to get in better shape he himself has said that. I just hope he commits and gets in better shape playing at 10% to 15% body fat isnt acceptable I think if he is in better shape his quickness should improve.

also offensively I don't see how he is like Cabbages at all they play nothing a like. Cabagges wasn't a good passer at all one of his main down falls plus he had no handle. I just dont see any Cabagges at all in Machado.

I will say he Barnes and Marshall do play way to upright but IMO that is very correctable.

surprised by no Jared Cunningham and no Darius Johnson-Odom write ups

Nuntius
06-27-2012, 03:57 PM
COMPARISON: SARUNAS JASECIVISIOUS (I’m too lazy to check the actual spelling)


Just to help you out:

Šarūnas Jasikevičius

Thanks for all the reviews, Tbird :)

Kegboy
06-27-2012, 04:18 PM
You had me at Cabbage, Jr.

:love:

/green

DaveP63
06-27-2012, 04:25 PM
I agree about Zeller. He's good at being tall.

Justin Tyme
06-27-2012, 04:56 PM
I'd love to pick up Quincy Miller at #26!!!!

I have no problem of waiting a couple of years for Quincy to develop. I waited on Rush to develop for 3 years w/o the potential Quincy has.

Pacersalltheway10
06-27-2012, 06:07 PM
in a new ESPN mock draft Lillard goes to Houston at #14

Sparhawk
06-27-2012, 06:18 PM
Really want Lillard, Royce White, Quincy Miller and Jae Crowder. If the Pacers came away with Lillard and one of those SF, I'd be more than thrilled.

DrFife
06-27-2012, 06:59 PM
I'd love to pick up Quincy Miller at #26!!!!

I have no problem of waiting a couple of years for Quincy to develop. I waited on Rush to develop for 3 years w/o the potential Quincy has.

I love talent & athleticism like most, but I'm betting that Larry doesn't want to wait anymore. He said this morning that he's been proud of his own patience, and a few other clues lead me to believe that he's ready to cash it in to win now. So whether (if) we keep the pick or trade up/down, methinks we'll be drafting a player who definitely can contribute next year.

Heisenberg
06-27-2012, 07:14 PM
I love talent & athleticism like most, but I'm betting that Larry doesn't want to wait anymore. He said this morning that he's been proud of his own patience, and a few other clues lead me to believe that he's ready to cash it in to win now. So whether (if) we keep the pick or trade up/down, methinks we'll be drafting a player who definitely can contribute next year.
I know it's how it's going to be, but I wish Bird didn't have final say tomorrow. I'm a fan of what Larry's done but the guy's walking away and it's not like Pritchard hasn't been here all year and knows our team and the prospects.

CableKC
06-27-2012, 10:44 PM
I'd love to pick up Quincy Miller at #26!!!!

I have no problem of waiting a couple of years for Quincy to develop. I waited on Rush to develop for 3 years w/o the potential Quincy has.Quincy seems like a Player that DW would draft....whereas Green would be someone that Bird would draft.

wintermute
06-28-2012, 04:40 AM
Quincy seems like a Player that DW would draft....whereas Green would be someone that Bird would draft.

It's not like Bird hasn't drafted "project" players (Paul G, Lance) before, and it's not like Walsh hasn't drafted "ready" players either (Dale Davis, Dampier, Tinsley). I don't think we can conclude one way or another.

I'd *hope* that we're willing to be patient with a superior talent like Quincy Miller (assuming we rate him as a superior talent), but I would be ok with someone like Jeff Taylor as well, as long as the talent disparity isn't too much.