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Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

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  • Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

    Has this been posted yet?
    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playo...ter-advertised
    Pacers-Heat: Better than advertised

    Indiana's Roy Hibbert could be a difference-maker (PER Diem: May 10, 2012)

    Updated: May 10, 2012, 1:08 PM ET
    By John Hollinger | ESPN.com
    • Big or small?

      That's the defining question as Miami and Indiana get ready to face off in the second round, in a series that could prove much more compelling than advertised. Miami won the regular-season series 3-1, but the Pacers got better each time -- losing by 35, losing by 15, losing by 2 in overtime on a buzzer-beater by Dwyane Wade and finally winning by 15.

      That's par for Indy's season, actually. The Pacers' defense has been rock solid from the get-go, but the offense picked up dramatically after the All-Star break. Indy's offensive efficiency of 107.5 over its final 20 games dwarfed its 99.4 mark in its first 30 (these numbers from NBA.com's advanced stats tool); Miami, meanwhile, went in the exact opposite direction, even before playing the JV during the final week.

      Indiana doesn't have the star power of Miami -- its one All-Star, Roy Hibbert, was a "team success" pick who averaged just 12.8 points per game. Instead the Pacers' strength lies in numbers; all five starters had a PER above the league average and all five must be guarded.

      Additionally, Indiana was one of the league's most careful teams managing minutes and keeping players fresh. The Pacers got no attention for this, in contrast to San Antonio, but Danny Granger (33.3) was the only Pacer to play more than 30 minutes per game.

      But the key to the series isn't Granger. It's Hibbert because Miami can't match up with the Pacers' 7-foot-2 post threat in the middle. Chris Bosh is a slender 6-11, Udonis Haslem is 6-8 on a good day and Miami's other alleged centers all are at least four inches shorter than Hibbert. The only Miami player with the size to match him is Eddy Curry, who has a better chance of bailing out the Greek economy than he does of playing meaningful minutes in this series.

      Hibbert will play over the top of everyone else on Miami, and on defense he can be a huge factor, as well -- just ask the Orlando Magic, sent home by Indiana after five games. Miami has played with at least one non-threatening big man on the court for most of the season, and if they do that against the Pacers it will allow Hibbert to clog the middle and contest drives by Wade and LeBron James. He's good at it, too, rejecting better than a shot every 15 minutes.

      To see how much of a factor Hibbert might be, check out this stat: When LeBron James was on the court against Hibbert in the four regular-season games, Miami was plus-17 in 128 minutes -- not good for the Pacers, obviously, but manageable.

      When LeBron played and Hibbert didn't? The Heat were plus-30 in 31 minutes. Yikes.

      And Miami has a chance to force a difficult choice for Indiana about how much to play Hibbert -- he is not terribly mobile and is a fish out of water on the perimeter, and that's the first place the big versus small question comes up.

      Miami can play Chris Bosh at the 5 and LeBron James at the 4, with Mike Miller, Dwyane Wade and Mario Chalmers on the perimeter -- in fact, one wonders if the Heat will start the game this way. They'd obviously surrender some points having Bosh guard Hibbert (although they could also try James in that role), but Hibbert can't handle Bosh on the perimeter and would quickly pick up fouls. Additionally, David West doesn't have a great hiding spot against this lineup, either; he'd probably end up chasing Miller on the perimeter.

      Indy has two potential answers for this, both of which are quite foreign to how it played in the regular season. The first is playing a zone. While you would think the Pacers would do this a lot with Hibbert in the middle and their length on the wings, they were slightly below average in their use of zones, according to SynergySports. Another surprise: They weren't particularly good at it, ranking just 17th in opponent points per play.

      The other option is to take Hibbert off the floor and go small themselves. Indiana could do this credibly by inserting Leandro Barbosa or Darren Collison to play with George Hill in the backcourt, sliding Paul George and Danny Granger up one place, and playing David West at center. But it would remove a key threat and force West into a defensive role in which he'd be overmatched.

      That explains why the Pacers basically never played this way -- their bigs averaged 95.8 minutes per game in the regular season, meaning there was only about 70 seconds per game where Indy was playing small. (The Pacers averaged 96.9 available frontcourt minutes per game this season rather than 96.0 because of overtimes.) And they didn't against the Heat, either; based on box score data, they played a grand total of one minute of smallball in the four games.

      So it may be that it's a small Miami lineup trying to take it to a big Indiana lineup, and that neither team gives in.

      Keep in mind, the big versus small debate isn't just about the starters. One of the intriguing possibilities for the Pacers in this series is that they can play small off the bench and relegate Louis Amundson to a bit player.

      As I've written before, Indy's bench was a secret liability this season -- Amundson, Tyler Hansbrough and Dahntay Jones all had negative plus-minus ratings and Barbosa was barely positive. That tendency carried over to the first-round series against Orlando; Amundson was the only player with a negative rating, while the five starters had the five best marks.

      But Pacers coach Frank Vogel did begin playing small, in short increments, against the Magic. Amundson played only 37 minutes over the five games. Instead Indiana played four perimeter players with David West at center for 13 minutes, and with Hansbrough for two. That may not seem like much, but it's a veritable outbreak compared to the regular season.

      There is opportunity for the Pacers to do the same in this series, further restricting their reliance on a Hansbrough-Amundson duo that was outscored in the regular season. That latter combo simply destroys Indiana's offense -- opponents don't guard Amundson, and Hansbrough shoots every time regardless of whether he's open (I have a fun stat for this that I'll show next week; suffice it to say Hansbrough is elite in this category).

      However, Miami can force the matchup action in another way: by going big in the backcourt. Indiana plays two small guards, Collison and Barbosa, and usually plays them together with the second unit.

      If Miami goes to one of its jumbo lineups with LeBron or Wade at the point, it may force the Pacers to take at least one of those players off the court. Additionally, it would be virtually impossible for Indy to go small against that group unless it resurrects Dahntay Jones, who had a rough regular season but may be a factor in this series because of his defensive ability on the wings.

      So with all that said, why do I think Indiana will make this series close? Basically, because the opportunity is here for the Pacers to cut their rotation further and ride their best players dramatically more than in the regular season.

      And if they ride the starters, this is going to be a heck of a series. News flash: Indiana's starting lineup was just as good as Miami's this season. I don't think people understand how little Indy's starting lineup played or the implications for this series if that group is playing more standard playoff minutes, but let me walk you through them.

      Both teams made switches to their regular starting quintet late in the year, so let's combine: Miami's starting five was plus-12.4 points per 48 minutes with Haslem in the middle and plus-9.7 with Joel Anthony; the Pacers were plus-15.1 with Hill at the point and plus-9.1 with Collison.

      Or look at it this way, using quartets: Chalmers-Wade-James-Bosh was plus-11.8 for Miami; George-Granger-West-Hibbert was plus-10.0 for the Pacers, according to NBA.com.

      Conclusion: Indy can hang with these guys, folks. As with Miami, it's the Pacers' bench lineups that have hurt them, and we'll see dramatically less of those in this series.

      I still like Miami to win: The Heat have home-court advantage, a major experience edge and a couple of lineup options that may be difficult for Indy to answer. That's why I took the Heat in 7.

      Nonetheless, Indy has the length on the wings to match up with Miami, the firepower in the starting lineup to keep pace and a big man that the Heat can't handle one-on-one.

      If it's as close as I expect, keep monitoring the big versus small -- in both the frontcourt and the backcourt. The team that takes better advantage of these potential disparities is likely to be the winner.

  • #2
    Re: Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

    I think Jones should play in this series; he should have played in the last one as well. I also think the Pacers will play like the Magic with Howard and shoot a lot of threes.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

      I wonder if the Heat will start off with that small-ball lineup.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

        Originally posted by rexnom View Post
        I wonder if the Heat will start off with that small-ball lineup.
        I'm more concerned about us following suit. The Pacers have a size advantage.....we shouldn't be going small ball cuz our small ball lineup won't prevent dribble penetration or deter others from attacking the paint.
        Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

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        • #5
          Re: Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

          Jones had a rough regular season? That was probably Jones' best regular season of his career. I thought he was stellar. Of course all Hollinger looks at is stats.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

            I agree, would like to see some Dahntay Jones in this series. He would help give LeBron and Wade fits.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

              If Roy doesn't take advantage of Bosh, we may not have a choice. LeBron can guard West but West can't follow LeBron around on the perimeter. A lot hinges on Roy, as Hollinger is right to point out.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

                Originally posted by HickeyS2000 View Post
                Jones had a rough regular season? That was probably Jones' best regular season of his career. I thought he was stellar. Of course all Hollinger looks at is stats.
                without looking at stats, it is easy to confuse activity for accomplishment. that is why holliger looks at stats.

                dahntay had a nice year, that doesn't make him a good player. it makes him a role player that played well. pacers have 6 or 7 guys that can play. and one, tyler, that can mostly play. the more the starters + DC + leandro play, the better things are.

                look at the playoff minutes, they will tell you who vogel thinks is valuable and who isn't.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

                  Originally posted by xIndyFan View Post
                  look at the playoff minutes, they will tell you who vogel thinks is valuable and who isn't.
                  It tells you who Vogel thought was valuable against the Magic. It doesn't tell you that someone who didn't play has no value at all.
                  BillS

                  A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
                  Or throw in a first-round pick and flip it for a max-level point guard...

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

                    The concern I have is more whether the rest of the team can get the ball into Roy and whether Roy can make his own shot the first option. The offense is not designed that way (it is designed for a cutter to peel off a defender or take a dump in for a shot but more often ends up as Roy waiting for the doubleteam), even though it could also have been used against Orlando in many cases. Miami is too good on defense to just hope for an open pass to Roy in the post, and out PnR is too inconsistent to force an open shot from Roy in most cases.
                    BillS

                    A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
                    Or throw in a first-round pick and flip it for a max-level point guard...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

                      Hollinger stresses the importance of Miami gaining an advantage by getting Hibbert into foul trouble. I think one thing we must realize is that it is just as important for Indiana to gain an interior advantage by using Hibbert and West to get Bosh into foul trouble. If that happens WE control the game being played because we essentially force James into the front court... otherwise Miami would be without any meaningful scorers in its front court.

                      I think the Pacers are capable of playing with Miami under just about all game situations. The Pacers will continue looking for their best possible shot, but I think that we will also see the Pacers attempt to use West and Hibbert more often, especially in the first quarter. If we get their starting bigs into early foul trouble, we improve our chances of taking a game from Miami on their home court.

                      So, I do think Hollinger is right. Nationally, folks will be surprise how well we perform against Miami. It would be great if we can take this series. There will be some talk about what LBJ and friends did to blow the series, but I also believe there will be a lot of intelligent analysis from the smart folks who praise what the Pacers were able to do to earn what they achieve.

                      Go Pacers! Kick arse!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

                        Funny how I posted similar strategies for the Pacers to follow against the Heat on the other thread

                        Like I said on the other thread I hope we practice "zone D" and small ball, we have to be ready for anything.
                        @WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

                          As I've written before, Indy's bench was a secret liability this season -- Amundson, Tyler Hansbrough and Dahntay Jones all had negative plus-minus ratings and Barbosa was barely positive. That tendency carried over to the first-round series against Orlando; Amundson was the only player with a negative rating, while the five starters had the five best marks.
                          I don't think the Pacers' bench was a liability in the regular season, I think it was a strength. Sure, the unit is starting to become exploited now in the playoffs where energy and hustle won't cut it alone. However, citing plus-minus as a useful stat is just plain stupid. That stat might be the worst widely regarded stat in all of sports.

                          Keeping Hibbert on the floor will be key this series. If I'm the Pacers, I'm pounding the rock to Hibbert and West because Miami doesn't have an answer for either and because it will slow the tempo of the game. If Miami wants to go small, I'm still staying big. Put West on Battier or Miller, and keep Granger on LeBron at almost all times.
                          Last edited by PR07; 05-10-2012, 03:53 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

                            Originally posted by PR07 View Post
                            I don't think the Pacers' bench was a liability in the regular season, I think it was a strength. Sure, the unit is starting to become exploited now in the playoffs where energy and hustle won't cut it alone. However, citing plus-minus as a useful stat is just plain stupid. That stat might be the worst widely regarded stat in all of sports.

                            Keeping Hibbert on the floor will be key this series. If I'm the Pacers, I'm pounding the rock to Hibbert and West because Miami doesn't have an answer for either and because it will slow the tempo of the game. If Miami wants to go small, I'm still staying big. Put West on Battier or Miller, and keep Granger on LeBron at almost all times.
                            I don't need the Plus-Minus stat to tell me that....more often than not...the 2nd unit was the reason why we lost leads or weren't able to build much of a lead against the Magic.

                            Remember all those times on the game thread when we would be calling for the Starting lineup to get back in cuz we were losing leads when the 2nd unit wasn't producing?

                            There's a reason for that. Barbosa can be streaky at times.....Hansbrough can be a liability on the scoring end if his jumpshot isn't falling...then come back in the next QTR and we see a different version of him that plays Smashmouth Basketball the way that we like him to play. Couple that with the 2nd half / Post ASB version of PG that isn't as aggressive on the scoring end as he was in the 1st half of the season.....who sometimes runs with the 2nd unit as the SF....and we have inconsistent production and defense from the 2nd unit.

                            This doesn't mean that I think they our bench is weak or a liability....it means that I think that they are not as consistent as they should be on both ends of the floor. This is one of the reasons why I'd prefer to have Inferno inserted back into the lineup....he provides renewed energy, smart and effective defense...while doing the one thing that has kept us in games over the last season....he attacks the basket to draw fouls and get Teams into foul trouble. On top of that...he has chemistry with Barbosa, Hansbrough and Amundson.
                            Last edited by CableKC; 05-10-2012, 04:19 PM.
                            Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Heat-Pacers: Better than Advertised

                              The second unit is going to be better than advertised in this series from two dimensions:

                              1) They've reached the point of having some time to gel. I actually think that the DC/Papi backcourt is going to have a breakout series, and the Amundsen / DC duo is starting to play better. I think if you add DJ into that mix, you have a pretty decent 2nd team.

                              2) The Heat bench is pretty horrible, regardless of whether our own bench met our preseason expectations or not.

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