Now that I have your attention, please bare with me. This is not a comparison of their personalities, playing styles or mentalities. On the surface and in most ways, they're opposites.
In general, NBA seasons have a pretty consistent pattern. Teams work on their execution and conditioning in the preseason, but we've heard the saying that nothing replaces regular season games. Teams struggle offensively while looking great defensively. This usually lasts about a month or so, and then teams start to execute better. Team field goal percentages go up, player stats improve, scoring goes up, etc.
This regularly happens to the Pacers but looks deceiving. It appears that our defense looks great at the beginning of the season, but then goes into the can by January. What's really happening is the beginning of a string of adjustments that occur throughout the NBA. By April, the finest teams have made both offensive and defensive adjustments that raise the general level of play to its highest level of the season.
But what we're seeing with Roy Hibbert goes completely against the normal NBA trend. He typically plays his best ball at the beginning of the season while most players are struggling. Then, as teams typically look better on offense and worse on defense, Roy hits a wall in just about every category. His field goal shooting and scoring go down, as well as rebounding, blocks and other areas. It reminds me a lot of Jamaal Tinsley, another player that I thought played his best basketball in November.
I decided to pull some information from basketball-reference.com on both Roy and Jamaal's careers, then sort the career data by month to see how their monthly averages trended over the course of a season. Some data was left out. For instance, Jamaal was benched in favor of Kenny Anderson to start the '03-'04 season so it was disregarded. Roy's playing time in his rookie season was heavily affected by foul trouble, so that was also removed. The results of the two players aren't identical, but they do have a pretty clear trend. Take a look:
There are more stats than these, but these paint a pretty broad picture.
With Roy, his perennial season funk can be linked to a bad game or bad series of plays. This season, it was the missed catch of a pass in the closing seconds of a home loss against the Magic. You could see his body language mirror last season's as O'Brien tinkered with the lineups. With Tinsley, it was a variety of injuries, ailments (e.g. sinusitis) and body language.
It really appears to be mental, but I keep coming back to the game logs for both players and noticing the timing of these funks. And when you contrast the timing of their bad play with the time that most teams are coming together, in January, it looks very peculiar.
I have a theory that may not be popular. And I have to say it's just that, a theory. There isn't a way to prove it, but it's my best educated guess at what we're seeing.
Much like the Pacers perennial collapsing defense in late December/early January masking the reality that opponents are executing their offense better, I think the mental struggles, injuries, etc. that plague Hibbert and Tinsley are also a mask to the reality. And this is where the similarities of Roy and Jamaal begin (and probably end). Both players work(ed) extremely hard in the offseason to transform their physique and shape. Say what you want about Jamaal, but he came into just about every preseason in amazing shape. He'd hire a chef, start weights for the first time in his life, do some heavy running, and come back down 15-20 lbs from the end of the previous season. Roy is notorious for the amount of work he puts in during the offseason. We've now seen Roy completely transform his body in the offseason twice in two completely different ways. Last season it was weight loss and quickness, this season it was strength and size.
It's really a testament to the work ethic of both players, but unfortunately it's also a testament to their natural condition. There are some characteristics that come very naturally to some players; so easily that their natural condition is sustainable in an NBA environment without much effort. For instance, some players like Shaq have natural strength and power, while others John Wall or Jeff Teague have natural speed. In a less sexy fashion, some players have amazing natural stamina/endurance. This is not to discount the hard work of any player, but players like Latrell Sprewell, Allen Iverson and Reggie Miller could run laps around their competition and usually looked stronger at the end of games than they did at the beginning. And they could sustain this over the course of the season and especially into the playoffs. On a smaller scale, I think there are players that can maintain similar shape throughout a season but have a limit to their endurance in each game. I think that's one of Mike Dunleavy Jr.'s biggest problems. That's why there's a huge difference in his 1st/2nd half stats.
Like Mike, I think that's one of Roy's and Jamaal's biggest downfalls, but on a much larger scale. They are not naturally inclined to have good endurance. And while they dedicate months and months of time and effort into their conditioning in the offseason, it's something that's impossible for them to maintain once the grind of the regular season kicks in. And since they can't maintain that time and effort into their training, their bodies start to slowly lose the conditioning that was created by the extra time they put into it. Roy and Jamaal play well in November because their bodies allow them to. Roy and Jamaal play poorly by January because their bodies are (in a sense) failing them. And then both players slowly adjust and gradually increase their quality of play as the season goes on.
If my theory is true, then it's bad news for us. I don't see how Roy can overcome this problem, much like Jamaal was unable. He's clearly trying, and from all accounts he's still putting in the effort to work out and train after every game, as well as adhering to a strict diet. Truthfully that's all he can do, but a limit is just that; a limit. He'll be limited by his endurance for the remainder of his career. This may have been part of what Jim O'Brien referred to when saying that Roy needed to learn how to "take time off" during the game and by making the energy he spends on the court as efficient as possible.
I hope I'm wrong, and in no way would I ever fault Roy. He still is and will always be one of my favorite Pacers.
On a different note, circumstances are making it difficult for me to find time to post here, so this is a bit of a farewell. I want to say thanks to Hicks and the rest of PacersDigest for having such a great forum. Come playoffs, I hope to be back in Indy for some games, and maybe I can catch up with a few of you at the Fieldhouse. 'Til then, go Pacers.
In general, NBA seasons have a pretty consistent pattern. Teams work on their execution and conditioning in the preseason, but we've heard the saying that nothing replaces regular season games. Teams struggle offensively while looking great defensively. This usually lasts about a month or so, and then teams start to execute better. Team field goal percentages go up, player stats improve, scoring goes up, etc.
This regularly happens to the Pacers but looks deceiving. It appears that our defense looks great at the beginning of the season, but then goes into the can by January. What's really happening is the beginning of a string of adjustments that occur throughout the NBA. By April, the finest teams have made both offensive and defensive adjustments that raise the general level of play to its highest level of the season.
But what we're seeing with Roy Hibbert goes completely against the normal NBA trend. He typically plays his best ball at the beginning of the season while most players are struggling. Then, as teams typically look better on offense and worse on defense, Roy hits a wall in just about every category. His field goal shooting and scoring go down, as well as rebounding, blocks and other areas. It reminds me a lot of Jamaal Tinsley, another player that I thought played his best basketball in November.
I decided to pull some information from basketball-reference.com on both Roy and Jamaal's careers, then sort the career data by month to see how their monthly averages trended over the course of a season. Some data was left out. For instance, Jamaal was benched in favor of Kenny Anderson to start the '03-'04 season so it was disregarded. Roy's playing time in his rookie season was heavily affected by foul trouble, so that was also removed. The results of the two players aren't identical, but they do have a pretty clear trend. Take a look:
There are more stats than these, but these paint a pretty broad picture.
With Roy, his perennial season funk can be linked to a bad game or bad series of plays. This season, it was the missed catch of a pass in the closing seconds of a home loss against the Magic. You could see his body language mirror last season's as O'Brien tinkered with the lineups. With Tinsley, it was a variety of injuries, ailments (e.g. sinusitis) and body language.
It really appears to be mental, but I keep coming back to the game logs for both players and noticing the timing of these funks. And when you contrast the timing of their bad play with the time that most teams are coming together, in January, it looks very peculiar.
I have a theory that may not be popular. And I have to say it's just that, a theory. There isn't a way to prove it, but it's my best educated guess at what we're seeing.
Much like the Pacers perennial collapsing defense in late December/early January masking the reality that opponents are executing their offense better, I think the mental struggles, injuries, etc. that plague Hibbert and Tinsley are also a mask to the reality. And this is where the similarities of Roy and Jamaal begin (and probably end). Both players work(ed) extremely hard in the offseason to transform their physique and shape. Say what you want about Jamaal, but he came into just about every preseason in amazing shape. He'd hire a chef, start weights for the first time in his life, do some heavy running, and come back down 15-20 lbs from the end of the previous season. Roy is notorious for the amount of work he puts in during the offseason. We've now seen Roy completely transform his body in the offseason twice in two completely different ways. Last season it was weight loss and quickness, this season it was strength and size.
It's really a testament to the work ethic of both players, but unfortunately it's also a testament to their natural condition. There are some characteristics that come very naturally to some players; so easily that their natural condition is sustainable in an NBA environment without much effort. For instance, some players like Shaq have natural strength and power, while others John Wall or Jeff Teague have natural speed. In a less sexy fashion, some players have amazing natural stamina/endurance. This is not to discount the hard work of any player, but players like Latrell Sprewell, Allen Iverson and Reggie Miller could run laps around their competition and usually looked stronger at the end of games than they did at the beginning. And they could sustain this over the course of the season and especially into the playoffs. On a smaller scale, I think there are players that can maintain similar shape throughout a season but have a limit to their endurance in each game. I think that's one of Mike Dunleavy Jr.'s biggest problems. That's why there's a huge difference in his 1st/2nd half stats.
Like Mike, I think that's one of Roy's and Jamaal's biggest downfalls, but on a much larger scale. They are not naturally inclined to have good endurance. And while they dedicate months and months of time and effort into their conditioning in the offseason, it's something that's impossible for them to maintain once the grind of the regular season kicks in. And since they can't maintain that time and effort into their training, their bodies start to slowly lose the conditioning that was created by the extra time they put into it. Roy and Jamaal play well in November because their bodies allow them to. Roy and Jamaal play poorly by January because their bodies are (in a sense) failing them. And then both players slowly adjust and gradually increase their quality of play as the season goes on.
If my theory is true, then it's bad news for us. I don't see how Roy can overcome this problem, much like Jamaal was unable. He's clearly trying, and from all accounts he's still putting in the effort to work out and train after every game, as well as adhering to a strict diet. Truthfully that's all he can do, but a limit is just that; a limit. He'll be limited by his endurance for the remainder of his career. This may have been part of what Jim O'Brien referred to when saying that Roy needed to learn how to "take time off" during the game and by making the energy he spends on the court as efficient as possible.
I hope I'm wrong, and in no way would I ever fault Roy. He still is and will always be one of my favorite Pacers.
On a different note, circumstances are making it difficult for me to find time to post here, so this is a bit of a farewell. I want to say thanks to Hicks and the rest of PacersDigest for having such a great forum. Come playoffs, I hope to be back in Indy for some games, and maybe I can catch up with a few of you at the Fieldhouse. 'Til then, go Pacers.
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