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Naptown_Seth
03-11-2012, 09:17 PM
Okay, we got that all out of our system.

Now it's 27 games left and THREE, 3, three of those games are on the road vs teams with a winning record right now.

3 hard to win road games, 7 weaker teams on the road, 17 home games.

Let's just be reasonable about this:
0-3 vs tough road games
5-2 vs easier road games (this is how the Pacers got the winning road record after all)
13-4 at home

18-9 the rest of the way at worst, unless the team turns into a joke. That's 41-25 and might be enough to end up ahead of Orlando. And I don't think it's crazy to think that they could beat the Spurs, Rockets or Philly on the road. Upside seems closer to a 21-6 run.

They won't catch Miami or Chicago, but they could end up making a great run to the playoffs and really build some momentum with the casual fans.

Shade
03-11-2012, 09:20 PM
Unfortunately, all this will serve to do is mask our weaknesses until they're exploited in the playoffs.

rabid
03-11-2012, 09:25 PM
Unfortunately, all this will serve to do is mask our weaknesses until they're exploited in the playoffs.

A little darksider don't you think?

I don't really understand this thinking. Mask our weaknesses to whom? I would think/hope Larry is not going to forget where we are right now just because the schedule is about to get easier. Also, the trade deadline is happening before most of those games.

Not trolling you Shade, I just don't get your logic.

Shade
03-11-2012, 09:55 PM
A little darksider don't you think?

I don't really understand this thinking. Mask our weaknesses to whom? I would think/hope Larry is not going to forget where we are right now just because the schedule is about to get easier. Also, the trade deadline is happening before most of those games.

Not trolling you Shade, I just don't get your logic.

Mask our weaknesses to the fans. Everyone will be on a high heading into the playoffs, then we'll promptly get smacked back down to reality.

Shade
03-11-2012, 09:57 PM
Also, 13-4 at home? We've arguably been worse at home than on the road.

Hicks
03-11-2012, 10:17 PM
Mask our weaknesses to the fans. Everyone will be on a high heading into the playoffs, then we'll promptly get smacked back down to reality.

Yeah, just like last year where we fell backward into the playoffs and got appropriately destroyed by 20+ points 4 games in a row against the vastly superior Chicago Bulls.....

joeyd
03-11-2012, 10:34 PM
Unfortunately, all this will serve to do is mask our weaknesses until they're exploited in the playoffs.

I would argue that our weaknesses are already out there in the open. Most of the people on this board have identified the major weaknesses.

This is a team that is supposed to have warts. We did well to cover them up in the first half of the season. The goal is now to play to our strengths. And then keep building with trades and during the off-season, as was the intention when Bird and Simon didn't spend all of the money in December.

Pace Maker
03-11-2012, 10:43 PM
I have to see it to believe it.

MrHale
03-11-2012, 11:09 PM
I feel like we will be a good playoff team, when we go hard we give teams trouble arewere just not givkn it our best effort right now

Bball
03-11-2012, 11:26 PM
I know what Shade is saying... Some winning would be nice. And for casual fans it might start getting their attention. The diehards will be apprehensive but optimistic. Then the playoffs will start and our record and win streak will mean we will not catch any team overlooking us.... And if they don't fix what's ailing them then the team gets hammered.

Diehards will be pizzed and casual fans will be put off for being 'fooled' by the Pacers and next season will be all about winning them back... again...

Of course that assumes Naptown's prediction is correct. I'm going to say, barring a trade deadline deal, we're not the same team that posted that pre-all star record and we'll be lucky to play 500 against that schedule if we don't get back on track. That means first and foremost we need Hibbert back... early season Hibbert anyway.

Shade
03-11-2012, 11:30 PM
Yeah, just like last year where we fell backward into the playoffs and got appropriately destroyed by 20+ points 4 games in a row against the vastly superior Chicago Bulls.....

We still lost in five games, and right now the Pacers don't look any better than they did at that point last season. Hill and West will help, but it won't be enough if Roy, DC, and Bro don't get it together in time.

rabid
03-11-2012, 11:39 PM
Mask our weaknesses to the fans. Everyone will be on a high heading into the playoffs, then we'll promptly get smacked back down to reality.

So, you'd rather us lose games than have our fans think we are a good team? :confused: With last-in-the-league attendance to boot? I get what you're saying I think but you're getting dangerously close to rooting for the team to lose here. If the team wins, they win! I'll take it!

All I care about is that the front office knows what our strengths and weaknesses are, and keep making moves to make the team better.

----

Right after IU went on their last Final Four run a few years ago, I had friends saying it was terrible for the team because it made everyone think Mike Davis was a better coach than he was.

That might have been true, but looking back, I'll take the Final Four appearance, thank you very much.

mcampbellarch
03-11-2012, 11:51 PM
On the NBA TV pregame show the previous time that we played Miami Larry did a phone interview. Anyone remember how many games he said he thought the team could win? He also mentioned they were outperforming expectations based on their early successes.

vnzla81
03-11-2012, 11:58 PM
On the NBA TV pregame show the previous time that we played Miami Larry did a phone interview. Anyone remember how many games he said he thought the team could win? He also mentioned they were outperforming expectations based on their early successes.

He said that he expected the team to win 38wins.

mcampbellarch
03-12-2012, 12:12 AM
So we are 23 / 16. 27 games left. Anything over 15 wins exceeds expectations given his perspective.

Not so much trying to find a positive side, we are far better than last year, but am looking for some way to rationalize the disappointment in some of these losses.

Bball
03-12-2012, 01:33 AM
I doubt Bird would be happy with 38 wins now. You have to believe he most likely thought they consistently play to 38 wins or else slowly build into a formidable consistent winning team by the 2nd half or final 3rd of the season.

Not that they would stock up on wins early and then slip and play worse basketball the 2nd half of the season and stumble to a 38 win record.

Peck
03-12-2012, 02:44 AM
Tue 13 vs Portland W
Wed 14 vs Philadelphia L
Fri 16 @ New York L
Sat 17 vs New York W
Tue 20 vs LA Clippers L
Thu 22 @ Washington W
Fri 23 vs Phoenix W
Sat 24 @ Milwaukee L
Mon 26 vs Miami L
Wed 28 @ New Jersey W
Thu 29 vs Washington W
Sat 31 @ San Antonio L

Sun 01 @ Houston L
Tue 03 vs New York W
Wed 04 @ Washington W
Fri 06 vs Oklahoma City L
Sat 07 vs Boston L
Mon 09 vs Toronto W
Wed 11 @ Cleveland L
Fri 13 vs Cleveland W
Sat 14 @ Milwaukee W
Mon 16 vs Minnesota W
Tue 17 @ Philadelphia L
Thu 19 vs Milwaukee W
Sat 21 vs Philadelphia W
Mon 23 vs Detroit W
Wed 25 vs Chicago L

I'm being overly optomistic here IMO. In all honesty I could see the Cavs taking the back to back from us. We just do not match up with them well at all. Depending on if the Bucks are eleminated by that time or not from the playoffs I could see them taking that game there on the 19th. Also I'm giving us credit for Rubio being out and praying the Pekovick gets the flu for the Min. game.

Also you'll notice I'm giving us credit for a win vs. the Blazers & the Knicks to avoid the 9 game losing streak, which I still don't think is out of the question.

15-12 the rest of the way. Still above .500% & probably enough to maintain 6th or 7th.

38-28 for the season.

Eleazar
03-12-2012, 02:53 AM
Because our schedule is so much easier I expect us to finish out strong, and to compete for homecourt still.

Suaveness
03-12-2012, 07:08 AM
Tue 13 vs Portland W
Wed 14 vs Philadelphia L
Fri 16 @ New York L
Sat 17 vs New York W
Tue 20 vs LA Clippers L
Thu 22 @ Washington W
Fri 23 vs Phoenix W
Sat 24 @ Milwaukee L
Mon 26 vs Miami L
Wed 28 @ New Jersey W
Thu 29 vs Washington W
Sat 31 @ San Antonio L

Sun 01 @ Houston L
Tue 03 vs New York W
Wed 04 @ Washington W
Fri 06 vs Oklahoma City L
Sat 07 vs Boston L
Mon 09 vs Toronto W
Wed 11 @ Cleveland L
Fri 13 vs Cleveland W
Sat 14 @ Milwaukee W
Mon 16 vs Minnesota W
Tue 17 @ Philadelphia L
Thu 19 vs Milwaukee W
Sat 21 vs Philadelphia W
Mon 23 vs Detroit W
Wed 25 vs Chicago L

I'm being overly optomistic here IMO. In all honesty I could see the Cavs taking the back to back from us. We just do not match up with them well at all. Depending on if the Bucks are eleminated by that time or not from the playoffs I could see them taking that game there on the 19th. Also I'm giving us credit for Rubio being out and praying the Pekovick gets the flu for the Min. game.

Also you'll notice I'm giving us credit for a win vs. the Blazers & the Knicks to avoid the 9 game losing streak, which I still don't think is out of the question.

15-12 the rest of the way. Still above .500% & probably enough to maintain 6th or 7th.

38-28 for the season.

Boy you've really gone to the dark side, haven't you?

Major Cold
03-12-2012, 08:02 AM
Boy you've really gone to the dark side, haven't you?

What the hell happened to PD? Seth is all overly optimistic and Peck has caught the vnzla virus.


Would you all prefer we revert back to JOB days?

Kegboy
03-12-2012, 09:50 AM
Winning cures all ills. So what if it causes undue optimism? If casual fans get the wool pulled over their eyes and actually fill some seats, all the better.

I don't get the worst case scenario here. We do really well and then flame out in the playoffs. So, then the casual fans get angry and turn on the team? I don't think so. In Indiana, even casual fans know basketball, and would accept it's a young team paying their dues. Even if they feel the team in inherantly flawed, they'll discover we've still got a lot of cap space and can improve the team over the summer, and they can get engaged in that process. Win-win.

Lastly, I was looking at the standings, and I noticed that Boston has played 24 home games versus only 16 road games. Would you rather be them?

Larry Staverman
03-12-2012, 11:03 AM
Mask our weaknesses to the fans. Everyone will be on a high heading into the playoffs, then we'll promptly get smacked back down to reality.

Despite the obvious personnel needs the biggest weakness this team seems to have is inside the heads and the chests of the players in the locker room!

Peck
03-12-2012, 11:11 AM
Boy you've really gone to the dark side, haven't you?

Honestly I thought I was being upbeat with that prediction. Which loss do you think I'm being pessemistic about?

Peck
03-12-2012, 11:29 AM
What the hell happened to PD? Seth is all overly optimistic and Peck has caught the vnzla virus.


Would you all prefer we revert back to JOB days?

That's the standard we are supposed to use? Oh well at least it's not as bad as when Jim was here.

Sorry I guess I had a little higher aspirations than that, obviously I let the early season record get the best of me but playing .500% & unable to beat a team that has a winning record or even teams that are close (Cavs. thumped as as well don't forget) just isn't my idea of improvement.

I don't think I'm saying anything really different that what David West said.

vnzla81
03-12-2012, 11:42 AM
I still don't understand why West is not happy? we are better than last year right?


http://www.indystar.com/article/20120312/SPORTS04/203120308/Pacers-poor-defense-helps-Magic-win?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|Sports|p


ORLANDO, Fla. -- The evidence has been laid out for the Indiana Pacers and everyone else to see.

Play a weak team and the Pacers usually take care of business.

Play a playoff-caliber team, and the Pacers have shown lately that they don't have the personnel to take that next step.

BOXSCORE: Magic 107, Pacers 94

They have continued to publicly declare that they can compete against the league's best.

But veteran power forward David West broke away from the company line after the Pacers barely put up an effort in their 107-94 loss to the Orlando Magic at the Amway Center on Sunday.

"We beat up on bad teams but just can't compete against the good teams," West said as he dressed after the game. "Games we've had against playoff-caliber teams, we've lost to them. That's the measure to where we are. We just have to be real about it."

The Magic didn't have a problem beating the Pacers despite being without starters Hedo Turkoglu (suspension) and Jason Richardson (ankle).

All the Magic really needed was All-Star center Dwight Howard.

Howard, whose future with the organization is murky with the trade deadline just days away, scored 30 points, grabbed 13 rebounds and had five assists.

Orlando led by 24 points in the first half. The Pacers got that down to nine early in the third quarter, but the Magic pushed it back up to 29 points in the fourth quarter.

Second-year guard Paul George led the Pacers with 22 points.

"We came out tonight flat and didn't play well, didn't play together," West said. "We got blown out of the gym. That doesn't happen to good teams, either."

The numbers don't lie on how the Pacers have played of late.

They reached their longest winning streak in seven years -- six games -- by beating up on teams that are likely headed to the draft lottery this summer.

The Pacers wanted to shed the thought that the schedule was the reason for their success.

Instead, the opposite has happened. The Pacers, in their toughest stretch of the season, have dropped their first four games against teams that will be in the playoffs. Two of the four losses -- Orlando and Chicago -- were blowouts.

They collapsed down the stretch in their overtime loss at Miami on Saturday.

"I thought we fought hard enough to win (Saturday)," West said. "We didn't make the plays at the end. Good teams make plays at the end to win."

The Pacers (23-16) have gone from having the third-best record in the Eastern Conference a week ago to fifth. They trail the third-place Magic by 21/2 games.

The struggles against winning teams come after the Pacers gave hope that they had turned the corner with impressive road wins over the Lakers, Boston, Chicago, Dallas and Orlando early in the season.

"We have to decide what type of team we want to be," West said. "(Do) we want to be an average team that beats the bad teams and teams that have already cashed it in for the season, or do you want to be able to compete with the top six teams in the Eastern Conference?"

Pacers coach Frank Vogel continues to remain upbeat.

"We know we're a good team. We know the schedule is going to hit you hard at times," Vogel said. "You have to do the best you can to manage it. We have a great deal of confidence that we're a very good team now."

The Pacers hope to get things back together when they host the Portland Trail Blazers -- who have lost five of their past seven games -- at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Tuesday

CableKC
03-12-2012, 12:48 PM
Okay, we got that all out of our system.

Now it's 27 games left and THREE, 3, three of those games are on the road vs teams with a winning record right now.

3 hard to win road games, 7 weaker teams on the road, 17 home games.

Let's just be reasonable about this:
0-3 vs tough road games
5-2 vs easier road games (this is how the Pacers got the winning road record after all)
13-4 at home

18-9 the rest of the way at worst, unless the team turns into a joke. That's 41-25 and might be enough to end up ahead of Orlando. And I don't think it's crazy to think that they could beat the Spurs, Rockets or Philly on the road. Upside seems closer to a 21-6 run.

They won't catch Miami or Chicago, but they could end up making a great run to the playoffs and really build some momentum with the casual fans.
First off, thanks for doing your "Hammer" threads regarding the Pacers and the other Teams that we are competing against.

If the Pacers are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for this hairy part of the schedule....how about the other Teams that we are competing against for the rest of the season?

I assume that you have an idea about which Teams that the Pacers will likely compete against for a top 5 spot. Are you able to gauge how the rest of the schedule for those other Teams?

90'sNBARocked
03-12-2012, 01:39 PM
Okay, we got that all out of our system.

Now it's 27 games left and THREE, 3, three of those games are on the road vs teams with a winning record right now.

3 hard to win road games, 7 weaker teams on the road, 17 home games.

Let's just be reasonable about this:
0-3 vs tough road games
5-2 vs easier road games (this is how the Pacers got the winning road record after all)
13-4 at home

18-9 the rest of the way at worst, unless the team turns into a joke. That's 41-25 and might be enough to end up ahead of Orlando. And I don't think it's crazy to think that they could beat the Spurs, Rockets or Philly on the road. Upside seems closer to a 21-6 run.

They won't catch Miami or Chicago, but they could end up making a great run to the playoffs and really build some momentum with the casual fans.

Nice way to look at it, and its encouraging. What worries me are West's quotes about this team not having the confidence to beat good teams.

I think there is not much difference between 4-6 seeds, which looks like where we will end up

I am really hoping for a strong bounce back effort from the guys tomorrow

Major Cold
03-12-2012, 01:42 PM
That's the standard we are supposed to use? Oh well at least it's not as bad as when Jim was here.

Sorry I guess I had a little higher aspirations than that, obviously I let the early season record get the best of me but playing .500% & unable to beat a team that has a winning record or even teams that are close (Cavs. thumped as as well don't forget) just isn't my idea of improvement.

I don't think I'm saying anything really different that what David West said.


It is a standard we have to use. We are not a top 5 team in this league. I am not pretending to be that and I don't think the majority of the people here are.

But when you look at it we ARE better than last year. And we are geared to be better next year. In a small market you do not get to contender status overnight, especially without a draft pick like Tim Duncan or Durant.

You have to be patient. It happened in the 90s, the league has not changed to think otherwise. We had to be patient in trading Artest, Jackson, and O'Neal. We had to be patient in buying out Tinsely. We had to be patient in unloading Rush. We had to be patient in letting bad contracts like Dunleavy, Rasho, Troy, Croshere, and Posey (tick tick) run its course or sell them for little (DC...)

I know you want the after taste of the last 5 years out of your mouth. But to get good Brandy while you are still holding onto one glass of Wild Turkey is hard when your liquor cabinet holds only one bottle....

naptownmenace
03-12-2012, 01:44 PM
I doubt Bird would be happy with 38 wins now. You have to believe he most likely thought they consistently play to 38 wins or else slowly build into a formidable consistent winning team by the 2nd half or final 3rd of the season.

Not that they would stock up on wins early and then slip and play worse basketball the 2nd half of the season and stumble to a 38 win record.

I picked them to win 36 or 37 wins before the season started. I'd be more than happy if they finish 38 - 28.

Shade
03-12-2012, 01:48 PM
This is why I love David West. Dude tells it how it is, but still does it with tact. That's a leader right there.

vnzla81
03-12-2012, 01:55 PM
This is why I love David West. Dude tells it how it is, but still does it with tact. That's a leader right there.

While I agree that he brings leadership, I don't know how he can tell the other guys to play D or play better when he is obviously the worse defender in the 1st unit and we was not even able to score more than two points on Ryan Anderson last night, that's right "RYAN FREAKING ANDERSON".

Peck
03-12-2012, 03:37 PM
It is a standard we have to use. We are not a top 5 team in this league. I am not pretending to be that and I don't think the majority of the people here are.

But when you look at it we ARE better than last year. And we are geared to be better next year. In a small market you do not get to contender status overnight, especially without a draft pick like Tim Duncan or Durant.

You have to be patient. It happened in the 90s, the league has not changed to think otherwise. We had to be patient in trading Artest, Jackson, and O'Neal. We had to be patient in buying out Tinsely. We had to be patient in unloading Rush. We had to be patient in letting bad contracts like Dunleavy, Rasho, Troy, Croshere, and Posey (tick tick) run its course or sell them for little (DC...)

I know you want the after taste of the last 5 years out of your mouth. But to get good Brandy while you are still holding onto one glass of Wild Turkey is hard when your liquor cabinet holds only one bottle....

Honest question here and I'm not trying to be a smart @ss.

How low are you willing to go?

Naptown_Seth
03-12-2012, 08:44 PM
Also, 13-4 at home? We've arguably been worse at home than on the road.
Have you seen some of the home games coming up?


Nothing is getting "masked", this is just the season. Had the games been more evenly distributed then what you'd have is a solid team that beats up on weaker teams, can beat a few good teams on the road, and is in the tier clearly below the elite teams...which is who? Chicago and Miami and OKC. But then do you include the Spurs or Memphis or Orlando?

So I don't think anyone will be fooled into thinking the team is top 4. But they will realize the team is better than what it looks like right now. It's just the anti-Sixers schedule.

Naptown_Seth
03-12-2012, 08:51 PM
Yeah, just like last year where we fell backward into the playoffs and got appropriately destroyed by 20+ points 4 games in a row against the vastly superior Chicago Bulls.....
I might need to stop hanging around Hicks, I feel my sarcasm is rubbing off a little. Let Mackey and me play bad cop so you can be the good guy here. ;)

But "YEAH, WHAT HE SAID SHADE! Now what do you gotta say?" :devil:


And remember that this year that first series will be against a slumping Sixers/Knicks/Celtics/Hawks team. I know the Hawks caught them off guard on the 2nd night of a B2B, but they still reeled them in and Atlanta is still going to struggle to overcome those injury issues long term.

If you are 3rd or 5th you don't face CHI, MIA or ORL in round 1. And even just winning 2 games vs CHI in round two means 4 first round wins (and the series win), probably 5-7 playoff games that round, and then 6 more games in round 2.

12 playoff games and 6 playoff wins would do quite a bit more than a 1-4 loss to CHI did, and even that bumped spirits a little bit considering where they'd been.



PS - I also had this caveat in there

unless the team turns into a joke.Which basically would be what .500 ball from this day forward would be. You'd have to lose to MIL and WSH a few times at least for that to happen. Maybe it will, but obviously nothing up till now suggests it.

I mean people are still saying "well OF COURSE you won those 6 EASY games", but now after losing to 4 good teams it's "who knows if they can even win easy games". What changed?

Sookie
03-12-2012, 08:54 PM
also, if Orlando trades Dwight..odds are pretty good that they don't end up in the top 4 seeds.

Naptown_Seth
03-12-2012, 08:59 PM
Wed 14 vs Philadelphia L
Clearly Peck and I need to put some kind of bet down on this one. I'm not there for POR so I'll just have to work something out with you before tip-off of this one.

Naptown_Seth
03-12-2012, 09:07 PM
also, if Orlando trades Dwight..odds are pretty good that they don't end up in the top 4 seeds.
What, you don't think Bynum and Barnes will maintain the pace? ;)


SIDEBAR INTO INTERESTING MAGIC DILEMMA
To me Orlando is one of the most interesting, bizarre cases in NBA history in terms of how to handle the deadline. You have a MVP caliber star and your team is within striking distance of the top competition. But you feel certain you will lose your star as a free agent and want compensation.

Do you ruin this great run you've got going for the sake of the "future", which doesn't seem likely to get a lot better than it is now. What, maybe you pull something awesome off and you get back to a different version of a top 2 East team in 3-4 years (ie, within the "glad we got that asset for Howard" window).

You are eating salary at some level because Dwight makes a ton, but if you avoid that by taking back an expiring then why not just keep Dwight as your expiring?

So you want a pick, but what team can give you the pick you want (or strong prospect) and needs Dwight? The Nets kinda, but if you give them Dwight and he and DWill start playing great then just how good can that pick be? Maybe #10

Without Dwight it's still only the 6th pick, and there are 5-6 teams just a game or two ahead of them. A Howard Nets easily makes up that ground.


So you can't get a top 6-7 pick, you get no benefit from an expiring since you already have that, and you MUST eat salary if you don't take an expiring back.

I don't see anyway that trading him puts the Magic in a position EQUAL to what they will have this year if they just keep him. Yes you lose him after that, but you clear his salary and you aren't going to be better off in the next 3-4 years regardless (unless that salary space comes into play, which you get even by keeping him).

Sookie
03-12-2012, 09:20 PM
I thought the reason Dwight wanted out was because he didn't think management was trying to build a contender. (I could be wrong, but I remember that)

If that's the case then I think it's obvious what they do...sell him for cheap assets because they aren't fully committed to winning.

CableKC
03-12-2012, 10:21 PM
What, you don't think Bynum and Barnes will maintain the pace? ;)

SIDEBAR INTO INTERESTING MAGIC DILEMMA
To me Orlando is one of the most interesting, bizarre cases in NBA history in terms of how to handle the deadline. You have a MVP caliber star and your team is within striking distance of the top competition. But you feel certain you will lose your star as a free agent and want compensation.

Do you ruin this great run you've got going for the sake of the "future", which doesn't seem likely to get a lot better than it is now. What, maybe you pull something awesome off and you get back to a different version of a top 2 East team in 3-4 years (ie, within the "glad we got that asset for Howard" window).

You are eating salary at some level because Dwight makes a ton, but if you avoid that by taking back an expiring then why not just keep Dwight as your expiring?

So you want a pick, but what team can give you the pick you want (or strong prospect) and needs Dwight? The Nets kinda, but if you give them Dwight and he and DWill start playing great then just how good can that pick be? Maybe #10

Without Dwight it's still only the 6th pick, and there are 5-6 teams just a game or two ahead of them. A Howard Nets easily makes up that ground.


So you can't get a top 6-7 pick, you get no benefit from an expiring since you already have that, and you MUST eat salary if you don't take an expiring back.

I don't see anyway that trading him puts the Magic in a position EQUAL to what they will have this year if they just keep him. Yes you lose him after that, but you clear his salary and you aren't going to be better off in the next 3-4 years regardless (unless that salary space comes into play, which you get even by keeping him).
Looking at this from an Indiana Pacers fan POV ( yes, one that is totally irrational and p*ssed off because the Pacers and the rest of the NBA Universe are at a total standstill when it comes to making any trade )....too bad for the Magic. Man up, look at what your options are and decide already.

Peck
03-12-2012, 10:22 PM
What, you don't think Bynum and Barnes will maintain the pace? ;)


SIDEBAR INTO INTERESTING MAGIC DILEMMA
To me Orlando is one of the most interesting, bizarre cases in NBA history in terms of how to handle the deadline. You have a MVP caliber star and your team is within striking distance of the top competition. But you feel certain you will lose your star as a free agent and want compensation.

Do you ruin this great run you've got going for the sake of the "future", which doesn't seem likely to get a lot better than it is now. What, maybe you pull something awesome off and you get back to a different version of a top 2 East team in 3-4 years (ie, within the "glad we got that asset for Howard" window).

You are eating salary at some level because Dwight makes a ton, but if you avoid that by taking back an expiring then why not just keep Dwight as your expiring?

So you want a pick, but what team can give you the pick you want (or strong prospect) and needs Dwight? The Nets kinda, but if you give them Dwight and he and DWill start playing great then just how good can that pick be? Maybe #10

Without Dwight it's still only the 6th pick, and there are 5-6 teams just a game or two ahead of them. A Howard Nets easily makes up that ground.


So you can't get a top 6-7 pick, you get no benefit from an expiring since you already have that, and you MUST eat salary if you don't take an expiring back.

I don't see anyway that trading him puts the Magic in a position EQUAL to what they will have this year if they just keep him. Yes you lose him after that, but you clear his salary and you aren't going to be better off in the next 3-4 years regardless (unless that salary space comes into play, which you get even by keeping him).

It's also possible that Orlando keeps him and signs him in the off season. If they make it clear that they will not do any sign and trades for him I wonder if he would really be willing to sign for less money with another team or sign for similar money with another team that has had to dump all of it's assets just to sign him.

I wonder if once he realizes that Orlando wasn't just going to take New Jersey's crap in return that he will change his mind altogether.

Peck
03-12-2012, 10:26 PM
Clearly Peck and I need to put some kind of bet down on this one. I'm not there for POR so I'll just have to work something out with you before tip-off of this one.

My faith in humanity will be restored if we can beat the 76ers. But I am convinced that right now we are not having a schedule problem as much as a crisis of mental weakness.

Do me a favor though if you would, could you go over that schedule and give me your win/loss totals. I want to see how far off I am on what you are thinking here.

Hicks
03-12-2012, 10:32 PM
While I agree that he brings leadership, I don't know how he can tell the other guys to play D or play better when he is obviously the worse defender in the 1st unit and we was not even able to score more than two points on Ryan Anderson last night, that's right "RYAN FREAKING ANDERSON".

Did he call out other players for their defense?

vnzla81
03-12-2012, 10:36 PM
Did he call out other players for their defense?

Who said that?

TheDon
03-13-2012, 05:00 AM
Something that I've been wating to write about and I think Shade was kind of alluding to a bit. What I really want is for the Pacers to not be second to last in attendance when they're doing as well as they are.

What bothers me more about losing than any other thing, is the casual fan is just going to always have some "out" as to why they don't support us, and right now it's "they don't beat the good teams."

I honestly don't think even if we were staring down the Chicago Bulls for the number 1 seed in the playoffs that anyone would care. I really don't think anyone cares about team play, say what you will about how Indiana basketball fans know basketball and will show up and they understand that this is a young team paying their dues. I don't think we'll have anyone show up until we have some superstar caliber mvp type player on our team. Reason I believe this, look at how many fans there are that show up for the Heat, or the Bulls, or the Celtics, those "fans" aren't coming from out of state folks...well with exception to the Bulls, but even then I still think a majority of them are from the Indy area.

Sherlock
03-13-2012, 07:26 AM
How to beat Indiana Pacers?
Pick and Roll them to death.

It is obvious to me that P&R defense is our weakness.

Major Cold
03-13-2012, 09:17 AM
Honest question here and I'm not trying to be a smart @ss.

How low are you willing to go?

I am willing to go as low as the season before. I will say that the JOB era was hard, but it we still weren't basement dwellers.

So if we weren't basement dwellers, why are you making it out that we were in fact that?

Hicks
03-13-2012, 09:59 AM
Who said that?

I thought that's what you were suggesting here:



While I agree that he brings leadership, I don't know how he can tell the other guys to play D

BillS
03-13-2012, 10:45 AM
Seth is the voice of reason. :crazy:

Seriously, I don't know where the idea got into people's heads that the year after making the playoffs you have to get to the second round or the whole season was a failure.

This team isn't what people hyped it to be. OK, fine. Let's be excited about what this team actually IS (which is a team that, contrary to many previous seasons, usually takes care of the business it needs to but sometimes struggles against equal and higher-caliber teams).

I paraphrase myself when I say maybe we need to take a step back and ENJOY the wins and discuss the losses, rather than urinating all over anything positive in the name of being "realistic".

vnzla81
03-13-2012, 11:05 AM
Seth is the voice of reason. :crazy:

Seriously, I don't know where the idea got into people's heads that the year after making the playoffs you have to get to the second round or the whole season was a failure.

This team isn't what people hyped it to be. OK, fine. Let's be excited about what this team actually IS (which is a team that, contrary to many previous seasons, usually takes care of the business it needs to but sometimes struggles against equal and higher-caliber teams).

I paraphrase myself when I say maybe we need to take a step back and ENJOY the wins and discuss the losses, rather than urinating all over anything positive in the name of being "realistic".

You know that if we keep playing the way we have been playing this team is going to end up with the 7th or 6th best record on the east right? OK so we got rid of JOB, signed a "big free agent" made a trade to get a solid player and at the end of the day we were only able to move one or two spots on the standings from last year? why would I want to celebrate that? you guys do it if you want to.


Not only that but at this point I don't see us winning more than one game on the playoffs, again, we have cap space and pieces to trade so we can make this team better, why stay mediocre? hardcore fans like you are fine with the result but guess what? casual fans are not showing up because they want to see a team that's not mediocre anymore.

BillS
03-13-2012, 11:29 AM
You know that if we keep playing the way we have been playing this team is going to end up with the 7th or 6th best record on the east right? OK so we got rid of JOB, signed a "big free agent" made a trade to get a solid player and at the end of the day we were only able to move one or two spots on the standings from last year? why would I want to celebrate that? you guys do it if you want to.

Tell me how many teams, even those drafting a difference-maker as the #1 pick, went from lottery to playoffs to second round in consecutive years. With few exceptions, you have to walk before you can run.

I really have a problem with the baggage associated with "mediocre". Mediocre as used in common conversation usually implies worse than average and not particularly motivated to get any better. It gets flung around regarding the Pacers the same way that the term "thug" was being flung around - without any real attention to the meaning and without any appreciation of the actual state of the team.

We're an above average team. We're not an elite team. Fans who will only support an elite team or a team with a superstar simply aren't going to support ANY team for more than a decade, since that is more-or-less the lifespan of a superstar or championship roster. Maybe that is the reality of the league; if so then the small teams simply aren't long for the world and I'm not going to spend their last years making myself angry that they only improved their record by a dozen percentage points and their playoff position by 2 places from year-to-year.

Major Cold
03-13-2012, 12:01 PM
You know that if we keep playing the way we have been playing this team is going to end up with the 7th or 6th best record on the east right? OK so we got rid of JOB, signed a "big free agent" made a trade to get a solid player and at the end of the day we were only able to move one or two spots on the standings from last year? why would I want to celebrate that? you guys do it if you want to.

One to two standings is 4 or 5 games maybe more. "Big Free Agent"? I know you hated that we got him, but do not mistake people's excitement for a quality starting PF as a Lebron type signing. But he is the biggest free agent signing in over two decades. And please do not forget that he played 14 mpg for Tyler development.

And our solid bench player....has been injured. And he was in a shooting slump at the start.

Why is it that we have to paint the progress, even if it is marginal AT WORSE, as a bad thing?

Peck
03-13-2012, 12:38 PM
Without getting into a giant flame war with people I will just say this.

I am not and have not looked at individual games and begun to thing about the team the way I have.

In other words if we were playing well but then got blown out by the Magic in a game I would just shake it off as just one of those nights.

But for over a month now we have not been able to beat a decent team & I say decent on purpose because when some of you guys talk you act like we are only losing to elite championship level teams. That is not the case.

In that time we have lost to Atlanta twice (which at the time had a worse record than we did) and in neither game were we competitive & to make matters worse the last time we played them they were missing both Al Horford & Joe Johnson & we still could not beat them.

Then the single worst loss of the losses was to the Cleveland Cavaliers who have a significantly worse record than us but led during that game by over 20 points for most of the second half.

Also let's not forget that we were ahead of Orlando in the standings before all of this occurred and by the time we played our third game we were reverted to what appeared to be a lottery team playing a championship team.

I know that none of you like to hear this & I guess what you really want is for people to just say "well at least it's not as bad as when O'Brien was here" but our record since February 1 is 9 wins 10 losses with 6 of our 9 wins coming against teams that will be fighting for the top draft pick.

But to me it's not just the losing, it's the way we are losing. How many games have we even been competitive in of those 10 losses? I'll give you the Miami game but in my heart I am convinced that BlueNGold was correct, the Heat just no longer respect us & gave us their less than best effort knowing that all they had to do was stay close.

But other than that? The first Orlando game and the Denver game are the only games that I can think of that if something would have happened even slightly differently that we might have had a chance to win.

Look many people were telling some of us to shut up about O'Brien, you were tired of hearing about it. Fair enough, I made a post on his one year anniversary of being fired & I haven't spoken of him since other than in reply to the topic that things aren't as bad. Well that is a two way street my friends.

If you don't want some of us to constantly tell you how miserable of a coach he was then I don't want to be told that things aren't as bad as it was when he was here. In other words if we have to let go then so do you.

Coaching has come into question lately, but under no circumstances are you going to find many people (if any) who are laying this at the feet of Vogel.

Look did I violate my own rules of not getting to high after the early season record? Yes, I'll freely admit that when we passed the 20 game mark and worse yet when we not only went to Min. & stomped on the Wolves but then crushed Dallas at home that I started to try and figure out a way to beat the Heat in the E.C. finals. So yes, I went overboard I'll admit it.

But just because I went overboard doesn't mean that I will be content being a second half losing team either. Sorry I just can't work like that. I would much rather show progress all season long than to have what appears to be a false start and then regress the rest of the season.

If you are all content with just making the playoffs again then so be it, I guess I was hoping for a little more.

BillS
03-13-2012, 12:54 PM
If you are all content with just making the playoffs again then so be it, I guess I was hoping for a little more.

Hoping for a little more? Sure.

So convinced we would GET more that I'm pissed off that we get what I expected before the season started? No. And not understanding why other people are upset about it.

PaceBalls
03-13-2012, 12:54 PM
It also seems like each loss is worse than the last one.

That Orlando game was one of the worst losses I can remember. It was bad enough getting destroyed by them, but them having them completely disrespect the players was an utter embarrassment. We could at least have had someone stand up and put a stop to that. That crap would never fly with Reggie's teams.

That's what is going on here. Complete lack of respect by any decent team. They know they have our number, they know we cannot overcome their game plan. So we get A-Holes like Glen Davis and totally clowning on our players on the floor.

Peck
03-13-2012, 01:16 PM
Hoping for a little more? Sure.

So convinced we would GET more that I'm pissed off that we get what I expected before the season started? No. And not understanding why other people are upset about it.

You sure about that?

Bill Sutton ‏ @bill31ab
I'm not pushing the panic button yet, but I've got the safety off. @Pacers

BillS
03-13-2012, 01:21 PM
You sure about that?

Bill Sutton ‏ @bill31ab
I'm not pushing the panic button yet, but I've got the safety off. @Pacers

I reserve the right to feel differently upon reflection than on the night. Ultimately, those emotions are based on how I WANT the team to be, not necessarily how I know in my heart they ARE.

Hicks
03-13-2012, 01:44 PM
The ATL game could have gone our way.

Peck
03-13-2012, 01:48 PM
I reserve the right to feel differently upon reflection than on the night. Ultimately, those emotions are based on how I WANT the team to be, not necessarily how I know in my heart they ARE.

Well let's explore that.

Where ARE they at?

You wanted them to be able to beat a team with a worse record and missing two of their best players at home after a period of time where they had more rest and time off than almost any other team in the NBA since the all-star break.

I don't think your want's were an unrealistic expectation myself.

So now that it has been established that we aren't able to beat those teams or even be competative where do you think the team actually stands?

That is an honest question btw.

Also this is to everybody, just in case you thought otherwise, I don't want to be like this. I hate that the team has taken a nose dive but I can't look at it and see anything other than that. To do so to me would be to admit that the beginning of the season was a fluke & that we are significantly worse than our recod is & I don't want to admit that.

Do I think this can be turned around? Yes, I still think it can but sadly a lot of this is going to fall on the shoulders of a couple of players who really may or may not be up to it and frankly it's not fair to them but to use the current venacular it is what it is.

Major Cold
03-13-2012, 02:04 PM
In that time we have lost to Atlanta twice (which at the time had a worse record than we did)



I thought records didn't matter?

Listen I understand. I want to be excellent. But I know the path to excellence is more than a good January. I know that we are not elite, and I was not expecting that.

But I do not think we are below average like the last 5 years. Have we been that way for the last month? Sure. Will we be that way for the next month? No.

Cause if we are 9-10 over the next 19 I will be on your side.

And with Vogel.....I have never really liked him. I hated his line change goon squad rotation, and I think he defensive rotations are still overly complex.

We have yet to get a PNR offense with a PG that could do it as a rookie with the same starting PF.

I am still excited about the Pacers cause I know that the playoffs are different. No one thought we would be as competitive as we were last year. And we lacked and still lack the maturity.

BillS is right. Have you ever seen a team go from lottery, to playoffs, to contender statitis in a 3 year span? PLease I want to know that.

Cause if not....Why are you expecting it 2/3rds of a shortened season with a small market team?

Unclebuck
03-13-2012, 02:07 PM
Peck, I don't really know at this point. I need to see what happens from here. I did think the Heat game Saturday night was an excellent performance by the Pacers, one of their very best defensive games of the year. That is how this team needs to play. As I mentioned in another thread, this pacers team cannot beat teams with their offense.

As to whether the start of the season was a fluke or not. I always believe that a team that comes out of training camp ready to go can get a lot of "cheap" wins. Wins that they would not be able to get later in the season when most teams get up to speed. So yes, I think that was a factor early on especially this season with the short training camp and preseason schedules.

Peck
03-13-2012, 02:10 PM
I thought records didn't matter?

Listen I understand. I want to be excellent. But I know the path to excellence is more than a good January. I know that we are not elite, and I was not expecting that.

But I do not think we are below average like the last 5 years. Have we been that way for the last month? Sure. Will we be that way for the next month? No.

Cause if we are 9-10 over the next 19 I will be on your side.

And with Vogel.....I have never really liked him. I hated his line change goon squad rotation, and I think he defensive rotations are still overly complex.

We have yet to get a PNR offense with a PG that could do it as a rookie with the same starting PF.

I am still excited about the Pacers cause I know that the playoffs are different. No one thought we would be as competitive as we were last year. And we lacked and still lack the maturity.

BillS is right. Have you ever seen a team go from lottery, to playoffs, to contender statitis in a 3 year span? PLease I want to know that.

Cause if not....Why are you expecting it 2/3rds of a shortened season with a small market team?

Where does that come from? Have I said that at some point in time & forgot?

Peck
03-13-2012, 02:14 PM
Peck, I don't really know at this point. I need to see what happens from here. I did think the Heat game Saturday night was an excellent performance by the Pacers, one of their very best defensive games of the year. That is how this team needs to play. As I mentioned in another thread, this pacers team cannot beat teams with their offense.

As to whether the start of the season was a fluke or not. I always believe that a team that comes out of training camp ready to go can get a lot of "cheap" wins. Wins that they would not be able to get later in the season when most teams get up to speed. So yes, I think that was a factor early on especially this season with the short training camp and preseason schedules.

Yea I want to make sure I get this out there as well. I said this after the game but I want to make sure to say it again so people don't think all I'm doing is ripping on the team.

No matter how the Heat played the Pacers played a good game and would have won it had it not been for a couple of really bad plays at the end of regulation.

Major Cold
03-13-2012, 02:15 PM
You wanted them to be able to beat a team with a worse record and missing two of their best players at home after a period of time where they had more rest and time off than almost any other team in the NBA since the all-star break.


Are we talking about the Pacers? Or the Magic that got beat two days after we did against the same team that did not have the same players you are referring too? The same Magic team that before losing to the Hawks beat the Heat two days prior? And the same Magic team that beat the 76ers a week later?

And the same Magic team that would be defeated by the Hawks a week after their 76er game? Or maybe the Magic that lost to the Bobcats by 16 before beating the Bulls two days later?


Again there are few consistent teams in the NBA right now. Few as in, 2 or 3.

Major Cold
03-13-2012, 02:16 PM
Where does that come from? Have I said that at some point in time & forgot?

I get the feeling that the 20 games we won did not matter because of some huge *. I am not fishing in your posts. I might have you mistaken with someone else....

Major Cold
03-13-2012, 02:18 PM
As to whether the start of the season was a fluke or not. I always believe that a team that comes out of training camp ready to go can get a lot of "cheap" wins. Wins that they would not be able to get later in the season when most teams get up to speed. So yes, I think that was a factor early on especially this season with the short training camp and preseason schedules.

That is a great point and would also add depth to Seth's reasoning behind Roy's routinely good starts.

Lets just say I am not at the point where Peck is. But I could be in a couple of games. If we go 3-1 I will be thrilled and put all this speculation on hold. If we go 2-2 then I will be up in the air. If we go 1-3......I will be pissed.

BillS
03-13-2012, 02:21 PM
So now that it has been established that we aren't able to beat those teams or even be competitive where do you think the team actually stands?

I don't think that has been established any more than the early part of the season established we could beat almost anyone we played regardless of record.

What HAS been established is that this team is somewhat talented but wildly inconsistent, capable of lapses that lose games but capable of plays that win them, and basically a .600 team at very best.

If the wheels completely fall off and the rest of the season is played like a bunch of sleepwalkers on Sominex, then, sure, the darksiders would have been right.

Despite in-game disappointment, though, I do not believe that is going to happen.

Naptown_Seth
03-13-2012, 02:22 PM
Tell me how many teams, even those drafting a difference-maker as the #1 pick, went from lottery to playoffs to second round in consecutive years. With few exceptions, you have to walk before you can run.
The Pistons.
32 wins - lottery

Add Rick Carlisle and no players
50 wins - 2nd round

Swap Stackhouse for Rip, sign Billups
50 wins - ECF

Dumars wins GM of the Year.


FIRE RICK FOR BEING A TERRIBLE COACH.



So let's talk about expectations a little bit. Going from just outside the playoffs to just inside the playoffs to getting out of round 1 IS WALKING. Cripes, it doesn't get any slower than that. The Pistons turned around 18 wins and won a playoff round on a coaching change. Then they went to the next round by signing a journeyman PG. Billups and Rip became stars in Detroit, not prior to that.


The Pacers signed a big FA and traded for another quality "FA" (ie, not a rookie you are waiting on to develop).

The Pistons added Rasheed and went from losing the ECF to winning the title (save the Brown BS, he wasn't winning any more games than Rick until Sheed was gifted to them).



I'm not even mad because I think you guys are nuts. This team is going on a streak and is going to the 2nd round. It's not my demand, it just looks blatantly obvious to me.

My "expectations" are that what is happening will continue to happen. They will beat Philly or NY in 5-6 games and go to the 2nd round.


Maybe WED night after losses to POR and PHI my tune will change, but that has to actually happen first. TCOB and it's all there for the taking.

BillS
03-13-2012, 02:24 PM
The Pistons.

So your answer is "one"?

I asked for a number because you can find an exception to almost anything, but an exception doesn't take it from impossible to expected.

Peck
03-13-2012, 02:26 PM
Are we talking about the Pacers? Or the Magic that got beat two days after we did against the same team that did not have the same players you are referring too? The same Magic team that before losing to the Hawks beat the Heat two days prior? And the same Magic team that beat the 76ers a week later?

And the same Magic team that would be defeated by the Hawks a week after their 76er game? Or maybe the Magic that lost to the Bobcats by 16 before beating the Bulls two days later?


Again there are few consistent teams in the NBA right now. Few as in, 2 or 3.

Not realizing it you are making my point for me.

Under no circumstance would I be even 1/4 the way I am now if what was happening to other teams be what is happening to us.

In other words if we lost to the Bulls but beat the Hawks and then lost to the Bobcats and then beat the Hornets etc.

What they are having is a battle of inconsistency and frankly the age old adage of "on any given night".

What we are having is nothing like that, we are having a pattern. In other words we are also being one of those consistent teams, we are constantly losing to teams that are not bottom feeders.

In offering an olive branch I'll say this, the Pacers can change all of this starting tonight & tomorrow.

I feel tomorrow's game is more important than tonight's in some way's but we can't overlook the Blazers to get to the 76ers.

At the very least we have to be competitive. Nobody is going to be happy with losses but as long all game long we are in it (in other words no losing all game only to make a desperate come back that falls short) then we can maybe look at this differently. But if they get smoked from start to finish in both games can anybody still come on here with a straight face and tell all of us that we should just be grateful to have a team (because I have a feeling that is what a couple of you are doing).

Major Cold
03-13-2012, 02:34 PM
Okay I understand. We are consistent. Consistently beating the teams we need to beat.

And inconsistently playing up to the teams that we all figured would beat us at the start of the season.

We did play with Chicago and the Heat. We did beat the Magic at Orlando. But we have not gotten a LA or Dallas win on the road, since that happened. And we have gotten beat by the Cavs and Hawks at home.

To me we are inconsistent and young.

A.B.Hollywood
03-13-2012, 02:35 PM
The opponents and Home/Away ratio is easier. The schedule... is not.

And yes, this makes sense.

We finally get into all of the back to backs and back to back to backs and have a ton of games in a shorter period of time. So while on paper it is easier this could very well be just as tough because of the actual, literal schedule.

Nuntius
03-13-2012, 02:38 PM
Mask our weaknesses to the fans. Everyone will be on a high heading into the playoffs, then we'll promptly get smacked back down to reality.

It depends on what those people believe about the team. If those people will believe that we're about to make it to the ECF or the NBA Finals then they're being unreasonable (or overly optimistic) and will naturally get smacked back down to reality.

If those people believe that we'll make it to the 2nd round and cause fits to a stronger opponent then they'll probably won't get smacked back down to reality.

Major Cold
03-13-2012, 02:43 PM
The Pistons went from lottery to champs because journeymen matured, and they were gift wrapped Sheed.

West is not Sheed. Hill or DC is not Billups. And Danny is not Rip.....but PG is better than Tay.

And we have a young bench, whereas the Pistons had veterans like James, Corliss, and Okur.

Ace E.Anderson
03-13-2012, 02:49 PM
It depends on what those people believe about the team. If those people will believe that we're about to make it to the ECF or the NBA Finals then they're being unreasonable (or overly optimistic) and will naturally get smacked back down to reality.

If those people believe that we'll make it to the 2nd round and cause fits to a stronger opponent then they'll probably won't get smacked back down to reality.

Given our record against our likely playoff opponents (in ATL, PHI, and ORL) is a combined 2-6, do you think it's unreasonable (or overly optimistic) to think that we'll make it to the second round of the playoffs?

Totally curious of your opinion

Hicks
03-13-2012, 02:49 PM
Peck,

What seasons in Pacer history, excluding the seasons where we expected deep playoff runs (or on second thought, maybe you should include them, too), did you see the team make a nice, consistent, steady climb of improvement from November to April with no bumps in the road?

I thought it was normal for most teams most years to have ups and downs throughout the season.

Hicks
03-13-2012, 03:00 PM
So now that it has been established that we aren't able to beat those teams or even be competative where do you think the team actually stands?

That is an honest question btw.


I think your problem here is you're letting the near and short term results command too much of an influence on your perception of the team.

Case in point, it's no more 'established' right now that we can't beat good teams than it was ever 'established' after the stretch capped off with the Dallas win that we were going to keep kicking *** on the road against the Bostons, Orlandos, Lakers, Mavericks of the league.

Back then, you let yourself get too high, now you're making the same mistake in the other direction by letting yourself get too low.

The truth is somewhere in the middle.

Suaveness
03-13-2012, 03:17 PM
Honestly I thought I was being upbeat with that prediction. Which loss do you think I'm being pessemistic about?

I think we beat Philly at home, win at Bucks, and win at home against the Bulls the last game of the season, where I feel they will sit their main players.

It's as Hicks said, you can't get too high or low with this team. I don't think we were as good as we really are at the beginning, and I don't think this team is as bad as they've shown against Orlando/Atlanta. I think fundamentally this team has weaknesses that can be masked by games of excellent defense. I know you're disappointed with how we're playing, but I say just let the season play on and see what happens. We're not consistent b/c we're young both with players and coaches. We have real flaws on this team (point guard, Hibbert, Granger) that are showing it's ugly head all at the same time.

Nuntius
03-13-2012, 03:23 PM
Given our record against our likely playoff opponents (in ATL, PHI, and ORL) is a combined 2-6, do you think it's unreasonable (or overly optimistic) to think that we'll make it to the second round of the playoffs?

Totally curious of your opinion

No, I don't think that's unreasonable.

No team of our level East has been consistent enough throughout the season. The Hawks are unpredictable, the Sixers cannot close out games and the Magic are likely to have a different line-up very soon.

We started this season with the goal to improve upon our last season.

Last season we had a losing record and we were the 8th seed who was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

This season we seem pretty likely to have a winning record and to be higher than 8th seed. So, I consider likely that we can also improve our playoff performance and thus be eliminated in the second round. That's a definite improvement, imo.

If we fail to make it to the second round then it will be a slight failure and while chances are that we still have improved upon our last season I'll still not be very pleased.

I'll agree that at the moment we are not playing good most of the time. However, I don't believe that we will play this way at the end of the season. Teams go through rough patches every now and then. And given the unpredictability of most teams of our level in the East I'm just not sure which of the two is going to be in a slump come playoff time.

Peck
03-13-2012, 03:24 PM
Peck,

What seasons in Pacer history, excluding the seasons where we expected deep playoff runs (or on second thought, maybe you should include them, too), did you see the team make a nice, consistent, steady climb of improvement from November to April with no bumps in the road?

I thought it was normal for most teams most years to have ups and downs throughout the season.

Ups & downs for sure. But when we had better teams this would last for a few games or maybe a couple of weeks. In fact the really bad problem when we had good teams back in the 90's was that we would play to the level of our competition on occasion.

In other words while we could beat some of the very good teams the bottom feeders would catch us on occasion because our players would take the night off (they even would admit this after games).

When we had bad teams we were like atrial fibrillation, consistently inconsistent.

Peck
03-13-2012, 03:27 PM
I think we beat Philly at home, win at Bucks, and win at home against the Bulls the last game of the season, where I feel they will sit their main players.

It's as Hicks said, you can't get too high or low with this team. I don't think we were as good as we really are at the beginning, and I don't think this team is as bad as they've shown against Orlando/Atlanta. I think fundamentally this team has weaknesses that can be masked by games of excellent defense. I know you're disappointed with how we're playing, but I say just let the season play on and see what happens. We're not consistent b/c we're young both with players and coaches. We have real flaws on this team (point guard, Hibbert, Granger) that are showing it's ugly head all at the same time.

I think the Philly game is huge. I hate to put so much pressure on a game but we really can not afford to drop a turd in that game.

The Bucks are an odd team. So much of that game is going to depend on how high of a level our team is playing at. I'm not sure if the Bulls would ever be willing to sit players and lose the season series. I mean they will probably not play them extended min. but I bet they start out the game trying to throttle us and then one way or the other the second half they probably sit the stars.

Your wins are not out of the question.

Ace E.Anderson
03-13-2012, 03:46 PM
No, I don't think that's unreasonable.

No team of our level East has been consistent enough throughout the season. The Hawks are unpredictable, the Sixers cannot close out games and the Magic are likely to have a different line-up very soon.

We started this season with the goal to improve upon our last season.

Last season we had a losing record and we were the 8th seed who was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

This season we seem pretty likely to have a winning record and to be higher than 8th seed. So, I consider likely that we can also improve our playoff performance and thus be eliminated in the second round. That's a definite improvement, imo.

If we fail to make it to the second round then it will be a slight failure and while chances are that we still have improved upon our last season I'll still not be very pleased.

I'll agree that at the moment we are not playing good most of the time. However, I don't believe that we will play this way at the end of the season. Teams go through rough patches every now and then. And given the unpredictability of most teams of our level in the East I'm just not sure which of the two is going to be in a slump come playoff time.

THIS is key. We have been playing mediocre to poor basketball for the better part of a month now. Obviously we've had games where we looked pretty good, but for the most part we have played below average.

This group of players have shown that (a lot like Pacers Digest) they are a wave of emotions. When they feel good, they feel REALLY good (and normally play better and more aggressive/confidently). And when they badly, they normally play pretty badly, lacking confidence and aggressiveness.

**Case in point, our 5 game losing streak around this time last year, only to rally and put up a helluva fight against the obviously superior Bulls team**

Basically what I'm saying is, If our recent play is more of a byproduct of a group of players that have tremendous peaks and valleys, then I'd much rather peak towards the end of the year--going into the playoffs, as opposed to February and March.

xIndyFan
03-13-2012, 04:18 PM
Given our record against our likely playoff opponents (in ATL, PHI, and ORL) is a combined 2-6, do you think it's unreasonable (or overly optimistic) to think that we'll make it to the second round of the playoffs?

Totally curious of your opinion

in a playoff series, yes. this is a young team. the playoffs will focus their attention more than a middle of the regular season game. and by the end of the season, the young players should be better. paul seems to be raising his game every night. roy will be better with more rest between games. jmo, but so will DC. he is small and has to play harder to make up for it. and has been playing a lot of minutes. some rest between games will help.

and most importantly, they will have some coaching/practice between games. the pacer young players seem to respond to coaching. and the lack of experience hurts without it.

the only one of the teams that i truly worry about is ATL. they are a bad matchup. if paul can guard joe johnson, that helps. now if josh smith shoots 60% for 4 games, then ATL will probably win, but odds are he won't.

Naptown_Seth
03-15-2012, 11:43 AM
Ups & downs for sure. But when we had better teams this would last for a few games or maybe a couple of weeks. In fact the really bad problem when we had good teams back in the 90's was that we would play to the level of our competition on occasion.

In other words while we could beat some of the very good teams the bottom feeders would catch us on occasion because our players would take the night off (they even would admit this after games).

When we had bad teams we were like atrial fibrillation, consistently inconsistent.
Let's keep in mind that the "good teams" of the past were one of 3-4 teams that could win it all. Several Bulls players have suggested that the 98 team was the toughest they faced, making them the 2nd best team. The 2000 team went 6 games in the Finals. The 1999 team was dramatically upset in the ECF.

This team is in the 2nd tier, the not quite at CHI/MIA/OKC level, and this thread isn't suggesting otherwise.

What it's suggesting is that the slide toward 6th or whatever was total BS and that in fact the team is the 3rd or 4th best in the East, tied with ORL (for the time being) and probably better than every West team except SAS (equal) maybe MEM (equal) and less than OKC.

The team is top 6-7 NBA and appears to easily be headed for a record that matches it, due to playing a BALANCED schedule by the end of the season, just like all the other teams must do.



How's that Philly loss working out? Blazers, Sixers, Knicks have been exposed as not being 2nd tier teams. Heck, we need to be more worried about Milwaukee games at this point.

A Pacers loss in MSG would be and should be a big disappointment. But a Pacers loss in ORL or in SAS is not a sign of failure, just a sign of adversity.

Naptown_Seth
03-15-2012, 11:48 AM
We 100% will NOT play Orlando (with Dwight) in the first round. People keep wondering how the team will get to round 2 if they have to face ORL (or MIA/CHI) when these are not the matchups.

1) Sixers hang on to division, Pacers get beat out by ORL for 3rd. Pacers HOME COURT vs Sixers (4 vs 5)

2) Celts steal division, Pacers get beat out by ORL. Pacers HOME COURT vs Celts

3) Pacers get the 3rd seed, ORL falls to 5th (or worse depending on trade). Pacers HOME COURT vs Hawks.

I know they had those Hawks losses, but the last one especially was abnormal and featured a furious comeback by the Pacers that could have won the game.

Nuntius
03-15-2012, 11:50 AM
What it's suggesting is that the slide toward 6th or whatever was total BS and that in fact the team is the 3rd or 4th best in the East, tied with ORL (for the time being) and probably better than every West team except SAS (equal) maybe MEM (equal) and less than OKC.


The Spurs are better than us. I could also find some more teams in the West that I could think as equal with us. I agree with the rest, though.

Nuntius
03-15-2012, 11:55 AM
We 100% will NOT play Orlando (with Dwight) in the first round. People keep wondering how the team will get to round 2 if they have to face ORL (or MIA/CHI) when these are not the matchups.

1) Sixers hang on to division, Pacers get beat out by ORL for 3rd. Pacers HOME COURT vs Sixers (4 vs 5)

2) Celts steal division, Pacers get beat out by ORL. Pacers HOME COURT vs Celts

3) Pacers get the 3rd seed, ORL falls to 5th (or worse depending on trade). Pacers HOME COURT vs Hawks.

I know they had those Hawks losses, but the last one especially was abnormal and featured a furious comeback by the Pacers that could have won the game.

Agreed. Neither us or Orlando can go to the 4th seed. One of us will be 3rd and we will only meet if one of us manages to fall to the 6th. I doubt this is going to be the case.

Naptown_Seth
03-15-2012, 12:09 PM
So your answer is "one"?

I asked for a number because you can find an exception to almost anything, but an exception doesn't take it from impossible to expected.
My answer was "I am work and have time to give you one easy, glaring example that you yourself failed to mention". If you'd said "aside from the Pistons, no team has really progressed to the next round of the playoffs with "just" the addition of a $10m FA and a 6th man of the year caliber player, then I would have skipped DET and moved onto the likely 20 other examples of teams that LEAPED from round 1 the first year to round 2 the second.


So you are saying that teams normally flop out in round 1 for, what, 2-3 years in a row before barely getting into round 2. Then they flounder in round 2 a couple of times before going to the ECF. Then 2 more years of that and finally, after a "normal regular speed progression" of 9 years they go from lottery team to Finals team.

Because that's the one that never happens. No teams progress that slow. They get blown up before that happens.

Teams that lose in round 1 the year after losing in round 1 and after bringing in 2 major additions (ie, 2 potential starters) start talking about things like "coaching changes" or "shaking things up".

If the Pacers lose in round 1 this year it will be a failure, barring injury or something. Why did Bob Hill get fired after all? Why did Isiah get fired?


Vogel isn't getting dumped because the team isn't going to fail, and nothing that's happened this season other than the first half of the last Hawks loss suggests otherwise.

BillS
03-15-2012, 12:36 PM
Teams that lose in round 1 the year after losing in round 1 and after bringing in 2 major additions (ie, 2 potential starters) start talking about things like "coaching changes" or "shaking things up".

You're missing my point. I never said that teams stand pat through that progression. I'm saying very few teams make the perfect change the first (or even second) time, so you have to combine gaining experience with changes (even if they are major or minor).

We lost 4-1 to Chicago last year. If we lost 4-3 this year to (say) Orlando, would that be considered an example of a team that made no improvement and needed to be blown up? No. It WOULD mean we weren't done shifting pieces or even going for another major addition, but you have to figure out when to build and when to start from scratch.

I'll put things together and see what I come up with. I have an idea of the format I want to use.

Naptown_Seth
03-16-2012, 11:48 PM
Let's just be reasonable about this:
0-3 vs tough road games
5-2 vs easier road games (this is how the Pacers got the winning road record after all)
13-4 at home

Well that Knicks loss is kinda bad. It went into the 7 game pool of winnable road games.

@NYK
@WSH
@MIL
@NJ
@WSH
@CLE
@MIL

They need to win of the remaining 6. The 2 MIL games are especially tricky.

They only need to go 11-4 at home.
Wins
NYK
PHX
WSH
NYK
BOS
TOR
CLE
MIN
MIL
PHI
DET

Losses
LAC
MIA
OKC
CHI

And the 3 road losses - SAS, HOU, PHI


Still seems achievable to me despite the NYK result, although that has worried me when it comes to the MIL road games especially.

Peck
03-17-2012, 11:57 PM
Well that Knicks loss is kinda bad. It went into the 7 game pool of winnable road games.

@NYK
@WSH
@MIL
@NJ
@WSH
@CLE
@MIL

They need to win of the remaining 6. The 2 MIL games are especially tricky.

They only need to go 11-4 at home.
Wins
NYK
PHX
WSH
NYK
BOS
TOR
CLE
MIN
MIL
PHI
DET

Losses
LAC
MIA
OKC
CHI

And the 3 road losses - SAS, HOU, PHI


Still seems achievable to me despite the NYK result, although that has worried me when it comes to the MIL road games especially.

Those road games vs. the Bucks & the Cavs. sadly may end up haveing very real playoff ramifications for us.

That 1/2 game lead over Atlanta may end tomorrow afternoon which would drop us to 6th and thus now playing the Magic in round one. I guess I've never had to do this in my life but tomorrow I will be rooting for the Hawks.:confused:

Naptown_Seth
03-18-2012, 02:03 AM
Is it wrong to have a meltdown in your own sunshiner thread?

Maybe this will be the home schedule
Wins
WSH
TOR
CLE
MIN
PHI

Losses
NYK (done)
PHX
NYK
BOS
MIL
DET
...and
LAC (by 15)
MIA (by 30)
OKC (by 25)
CHI (by 35)


For a nice 5-10, should I ask for my money back kinda of stretch.

I'm so beeping beeping beep about the beeping beep play of this beeping beep "team" that I'm ready to ask for a written apology from every player for these 2 Knicks "winnable" games.

Maybe Danny should start identifying the "loseable" games instead and he can start with "all of them".

Peck
03-18-2012, 04:18 PM
Well so much for that.

Atlanta 103 Cleveland 87

vnzla81
03-18-2012, 09:41 PM
Tue 13 vs Portland W
Wed 14 vs Philadelphia L
Fri 16 @ New York L
Sat 17 vs New York W
Tue 20 vs LA Clippers L
Thu 22 @ Washington W
Fri 23 vs Phoenix W
Sat 24 @ Milwaukee L
Mon 26 vs Miami L
Wed 28 @ New Jersey W
Thu 29 vs Washington W
Sat 31 @ San Antonio L

Sun 01 @ Houston L
Tue 03 vs New York W
Wed 04 @ Washington W
Fri 06 vs Oklahoma City L
Sat 07 vs Boston L
Mon 09 vs Toronto W
Wed 11 @ Cleveland L
Fri 13 vs Cleveland W
Sat 14 @ Milwaukee W
Mon 16 vs Minnesota W
Tue 17 @ Philadelphia L
Thu 19 vs Milwaukee W
Sat 21 vs Philadelphia W
Mon 23 vs Detroit W
Wed 25 vs Chicago L

I'm being overly optomistic here IMO. In all honesty I could see the Cavs taking the back to back from us. We just do not match up with them well at all. Depending on if the Bucks are eleminated by that time or not from the playoffs I could see them taking that game there on the 19th. Also I'm giving us credit for Rubio being out and praying the Pekovick gets the flu for the Min. game.

Also you'll notice I'm giving us credit for a win vs. the Blazers & the Knicks to avoid the 9 game losing streak, which I still don't think is out of the question.

15-12 the rest of the way. Still above .500% & probably enough to maintain 6th or 7th.

38-28 for the season.


Pretty good prediction by Peck here, look that some of the teams that you predicted a win made trades to get better(Milwaukee) or are playing at a higher level(Celtics,Pistons), let's see what this guys are made of, 14-13 for them the rest of the way I think.

Hicks
03-19-2012, 12:17 AM
If our good stretch didn't truly represent what this team is, I'm certainly not going to be quick to assume that they are, conversely, defined by their bad stretch they're in right now. Let's see how we look in a few weeks and see if the gloom and doom is justified.

Hey, it might be. But it's presumptuous.

jeffg-body
03-19-2012, 12:26 AM
If they can come out of this stretch around .500 I think it will do wonders for our team to be battle tested when the playoffs begin.

PaceBalls
03-19-2012, 02:07 AM
Playoffs?? I just hope we can win a game! Another game! :jimmora:

Peck
03-24-2012, 03:31 AM
Okay, we got that all out of our system.

Now it's 27 games left and THREE, 3, three of those games are on the road vs teams with a winning record right now.

3 hard to win road games, 7 weaker teams on the road, 17 home games.

Let's just be reasonable about this:
0-3 vs tough road games
5-2 vs easier road games (this is how the Pacers got the winning road record after all)
13-4 at home

18-9 the rest of the way at worst, unless the team turns into a joke. That's 41-25 and might be enough to end up ahead of Orlando. And I don't think it's crazy to think that they could beat the Spurs, Rockets or Philly on the road. Upside seems closer to a 21-6 run.

They won't catch Miami or Chicago, but they could end up making a great run to the playoffs and really build some momentum with the casual fans.

So far we are 4-3 in this lighter stretch. The Bucks game tonight looks tough on paper & we all know what the Miami game is going to be like.

Oddly enough I had us at 4-3 during this stretch as well albiet I thought we'd lose to the Clippers & beat the Suns & thought we'd split N.Y. but they also suprised me by taking the 76ers.

Again Atlanta has pulled into almost a dead heat with us & we really really can not afford to drop to 6th forcing us to play the Magic. That Suns game was a real killer simply because I give us very little hope of beating the Buck tonight simply because it is game 3 of a three nights in a row games. However as little hope I give us for that game it still is some hope which I hold none for the Monday game, thus giving us a 3 game losing streak.

We are now only 2.5 games ahead of the Celtics for 7th which would put us playing the Heat. I'll just go ahead and say that playing the Heat would be a collosal waste of time so it is in everybody's best interest to not drop to 7th.

In fact looking past the next couple of games I see the Nets & Wizards which I hope we win (we should) but then 3 of the next 4 will be hell on earth then we will have to play the Celtics again who are going to be fighting for real playoff position.

This is not going to be an easy stretch, not by a long shot.

Naptown_Seth
03-24-2012, 08:27 AM
Peck, I've posted my revised plan and stand by my meltdown.

Down 20 to Washington on the FIRST night of the B-B-B. I expect Dunleavy to go for 28 in a Bucks route...by halftime.


Also the teams we beat AT HOME - Clips, Sixers - both dropping quickly. Clips have internal issues, Sixers were overrated due to schedule and are about to fall out of the division lead. Those aren't good wins.

Phoenix is playing better and pushing for an 8 seed. To me that makes them far more of a "playoff team" than the Clips or Sixers. And by that measuring stick the Pacers came up very short. 3 seeds beat 8 seeds when they play at home and often when they play on the road.


It turns out that the Sixers aren't the only team that stinks. Maybe that's not quite right, the Pacers don't stink so much as they just have no sense of consistancy. They can't maintain any flow through a game and slip in and out of appearing to know what they are doing.





I'm sure the deal wasn't on the table (well obviously not 100%), but just the buzz that Larry wouldn't trade a 1st makes me PO'd to think that he MIGHT have had no interest in a DC/1st for Nash deal.

Nash takes this team to the ECF at least and you could see why last night. Even as a 1 year rental that's worth the price, and on a resign for his final 2 it's really worth it.

A PG of DC level and a wing of 25th pick level will both be on the FA market and easily sign-able with the "Nash didn't stay" money. I would have been pestering the Suns to no end with that deal. This team needs a straw stirring the drink so bad, a Jax/Nash/Stockton type of PG rather than a scoring type of PG.

Naptown_Seth
03-24-2012, 08:30 AM
This is not going to be an easy stretch, not by a long shot.
It will be for the teams playing the Pacers.


I thought last year's Texas trip was brutal but this might end up being worse.

owl
03-24-2012, 10:04 AM
Mask our weaknesses to the fans. Everyone will be on a high heading into the playoffs, then we'll promptly get smacked back down to reality.

I don't know. They gave Chicago a run for their money last year. I think the teams level of play will rise in the playoffs. I am concerned about not having Foster.

Anthem
03-24-2012, 12:37 PM
Interesting to read up on this thread after the fact.

Funny thing is that we're right where Peck predicted, though he got most of the specific game predictions wrong. :devil:

CableKC
03-25-2012, 04:05 AM
We 100% will NOT play Orlando (with Dwight) in the first round. People keep wondering how the team will get to round 2 if they have to face ORL (or MIA/CHI) when these are not the matchups.

1) Sixers hang on to division, Pacers get beat out by ORL for 3rd. Pacers HOME COURT vs Sixers (4 vs 5)

2) Celts steal division, Pacers get beat out by ORL. Pacers HOME COURT vs Celts

3) Pacers get the 3rd seed, ORL falls to 5th (or worse depending on trade). Pacers HOME COURT vs Hawks.

I know they had those Hawks losses, but the last one especially was abnormal and featured a furious comeback by the Pacers that could have won the game.
Seth, I've lost track...but have you done one of your "schedule" breakdowns of the remaining games for the Magic, Sixers and the Hawks?

I think that we are 2 games behind the Magic now, virtually tied with the Hawks and slightly ahead of the Sixers.....how does our schedule compare to those Teams?

It would seem that we are likely to face either the Hawks or the Sixers in the 1st round. I'm mixed about facing either of them and not sure who'd we want to face. Assuming that the Pacers end up in the 5th spot....but has a better record than the Sixers...would we have home court advantage?

TheDavisBrothers
03-25-2012, 04:23 AM
Seth, I've lost track...but have you done one of your "schedule" breakdowns of the remaining games for the Magic, Sixers and the Hawks?

I think that we are 2 games behind the Magic now, virtually tied with the Hawks and slightly ahead of the Sixers.....how does our schedule compare to those Teams?

It would seem that we are likely to face either the Hawks or the Sixers in the 1st round. I'm mixed about facing either of them and not sure who'd we want to face. Assuming that the Pacers end up in the 5th spot....but has a better record than the Sixers...would we have home court advantage?

Whoever has the better record does indeed get home court and there is actually a very real chance of us playing Orlando in the playoffs. The Hawks could easily pass us, leaving us as a 6 seed to face the 3 seed Magic...

Cubs231721
03-25-2012, 08:32 AM
Here's a quick schedule comparison:

Orlando
Teams above .600=0 games
Teams .500-.600=9 games (4 home, 5 away)
Teams .400-.500=2 games (1 home, 1 away)
Teams below .400=6 games (2 home, 4 away)

Pacers
Teams above .600=4 games (3 home, 1 away)
Teams .500-.600=4 games (2 home, 2 away)
Teams .400-.500=4 games (3 home, 1 away)
Teams below .400=7 games (4 home, 3 away)

Philadelphia
Teams above .600=4 games (1 home, 3 away)
Teams .500-.600=4 games (2 home, 2 away)
Teams .400-.500=1 game (1 away)
Teams below .400=9 games (3 home, 6 away)

Atlanta
Teams above .600=2 games (1 home, 1 away)
Teams .500-.600=6 games (4 home, 2 away)
Teams .400-.500=3 games (2 home, 1 away)
Teams below .400=6 games (4 home, 2 away)

Boston
Teams above .600=6 games (4 home, 2 away)
Teams .500-.600=5 games (3 home, 2 away)
Teams .400-.500=3 games (1 home, 2 away)
Teams below .400=5 games (1 home, 4 away)

So pretty balanced. Boston seems to have the hardest while Atlanta and Orlando have the easiest. Philly has a lot of road games, and the Pacers are pretty much in the middle.

Anthem
03-25-2012, 09:00 AM
Here's a quick schedule comparison:

Orlando
Teams above .600=0 games
Teams .500-.600=9 games (4 home, 5 away)
Teams .400-.500=2 games (1 home, 1 away)
Teams below .400=6 games (2 home, 4 away)

Pacers
Teams above .600=4 games (3 home, 1 away)
Teams .500-.600=4 games (2 home, 2 away)
Teams .400-.500=4 games (3 home, 1 away)
Teams below .400=7 games (4 home, 3 away)

Philadelphia
Teams above .600=4 games (1 home, 3 away)
Teams .500-.600=4 games (2 home, 2 away)
Teams .400-.500=1 game (1 away)
Teams below .400=9 games (3 home, 6 away)

Atlanta
Teams above .600=2 games (1 home, 1 away)
Teams .500-.600=6 games (4 home, 2 away)
Teams .400-.500=3 games (2 home, 1 away)
Teams below .400=6 games (4 home, 2 away)

Boston
Teams above .600=6 games (4 home, 2 away)
Teams .500-.600=5 games (3 home, 2 away)
Teams .400-.500=3 games (1 home, 2 away)
Teams below .400=5 games (1 home, 4 away)

So pretty balanced. Boston seems to have the hardest while Atlanta and Orlando have the easiest. Philly has a lot of road games, and the Pacers are pretty much in the middle.
Fantastic work! Thanks a ton!

This actually depresses me a bit... I'd thought the Pacers would have one of the easiest remaining schedules but that's not the case. Going just by these numbers, I'd give that award to Philadelphia.

Shade
03-26-2012, 10:14 AM
We 100% will NOT play Orlando (with Dwight) in the first round.

Have you checked out today's standings? :-p

ECKrueger
03-26-2012, 11:40 AM
Fantastic work! Thanks a ton!

This actually depresses me a bit... I'd thought the Pacers would have one of the easiest remaining schedules but that's not the case. Going just by these numbers, I'd give that award to Philadelphia.

Actually, assigning above .600 as 0.8, .500-.600 as 0.6, etc., I got:

Orlando - 7.4
Indiana - 8.6
Philadelphia - 7.8
Atlanta - 7.6
Boston -10

Naptown_Seth
03-26-2012, 12:29 PM
Have you checked out today's standings? :-p
They're not supposed to back their way into it.

I'm pretty sure after the MIL game that the team is now just intentionally :censored: ing with me.


Seriously, MIL has been playing much better lately and it's the 3rd game in 3 nights for Indy on the road after 2 close games in much more favorable circumstances. And this is the one you win in a blow out???


Dogs and cats, living together...real end of the world type stuff.

vnzla81
03-26-2012, 12:43 PM
They're not supposed to back their way into it.

I'm pretty sure after the MIL game that the team is now just intentionally :censored: ing with me.


Seriously, MIL has been playing much better lately and it's the 3rd game in 3 nights for Indy on the road after 2 close games in much more favorable circumstances. And this is the one you win in a blow out???


Dogs and cats, living together...real end of the world type stuff.


That was also Mil 3rd game on 3nights.

daschysta
03-26-2012, 12:51 PM
Tonights game is pretty big. If we manage to finally beat the Heat we should be able to win the next two going into a tough swing next week.

Good news is that Roy is back in his groove and playing like an All-Star, and he is exactly where we can kill the heat out of all the positions on the floor. Bench needs to play big too, that's the other area where we have an advantage.

We nearly took the Heat out in Miami, so a win tonight back home isn't out of the question.

Naptown_Seth
03-26-2012, 12:56 PM
Fantastic work! Thanks a ton!

This actually depresses me a bit... I'd thought the Pacers would have one of the easiest remaining schedules but that's not the case. Going just by these numbers, I'd give that award to Philadelphia.
What?!?

You must have a typo. Atlanta is maybe in the best situations, Philly is clearly F'd in the A.

Philly has 5 road games vs teams over .500, I think maybe they've won 1 road game this year vs a +500 (Atlanta over a month ago). They are 10-12 on the road period.

Road wins
PHX (start of year, not current Suns)
GS
NO
WSH
ATL

CLE
CHA
DET
NYK
CHA

Games of that caliber left on their schedule
NJ (2), WSH, CLE, DET, TOR

NJ, CLE and DET are part of their FIVE GAME ROAD TRIP to end the season.

But better than that, the CLE game is game #3 of a B-B-B which features @ORL, vs Pacers, @CLE. So even with a weaker Cavs team it comes after a set of road-home-road (like Indy just did) and has the easiest game at the end of the set (opposite of the Indy B-B-B).

I'd say they can maybe go 5-1 there.



PHI road losses

POR
UTH
NYK
MIA
ORL

MIN
MEM
HOU
MIL
IND

CHI
SAS

They still go to MIA, BOS, ORL, IND and MIL and I think they lose all 5 of those.


So on the road they go 5-6 to finish.


Home games they can lose
ATL, ORL, IND

Home games they can win
CLE, TOR, NJ

3-3 at home, 8-9 overall.


By the way, let's look at their B-B-B again. They get 2 days off after it and then have to come to Indy.

And before that the @NJ and @TOR games (B2B nights) come after a home game vs ORL and then on the road to BOS the next night (with a day off before NJ).


They play 7 games after having played the night before; 4 of those are on the road and 2 others are home games vs ATL and IND.



They already got crushed in their @SAS game since Cubs posted his breakdown.

billbradley
03-26-2012, 12:59 PM
Dogs and cats, living together...real end of the world type stuff.

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Naptown_Seth
03-26-2012, 01:05 PM
Atlanta crusing? Maybe we are biased because of the Pacers losing to them. But since that game let's look at all this ATL winning.

L @ MIA
L @ DET
W @ SAC
L @ DEN
L @ LAC

And then they got "hot", ie played a lot of home games and 2 bad teams on the road:

W vs WSH
W @ CLE (with day off prior)
L vs BOS (B2B)
W vs CLE (day off)
W vs NJ (day off)
W @ WSH (B2B)
W vs UTH (B2B2B, but went to OT)

They've got to host the following teams still:
CHI, BOS, LAC, DAL

The good home matchups for them
NYK (2), DET (2), TOR, CHA

6-4 seems reasonable there


Tough road games:
MIL, PHI, BOS, ORL

Easier road games:
CHA, TOR

So maybe 3-3 at best.


They could go 9-7 I suppose, but a big part of the recent surge was a very favorable section of the schedule (akin to the Pacers 6 game win streak).



So it looks like a horse race to the finish among PHI, ATL, BOS and IND (in various seeding variations).

Naptown_Seth
03-26-2012, 01:10 PM
That was also Mil 3rd game on 3nights.
Shoot, so it was. Boy MIL's "good run" looks a lot like ATL's.

Lots of road wins but the usual suspects when it comes to opponents: NYK, TOR, NJ, CLE, GS, POR and CHA in between losing at home to BOS and IND.

The Bucks have a generally favorable schedule the rest of the way too. They can easily reach .500 and pass the Knicks for the 8th seed. So maybe once Dun cracked the seal on that whole "no playoffs" thing it really started to flow? ;)

wintermute
03-26-2012, 03:48 PM
Whoever has the better record does indeed get home court and there is actually a very real chance of us playing Orlando in the playoffs. The Hawks could easily pass us, leaving us as a 6 seed to face the 3 seed Magic...

Depressingly, I think that is a very realistic scenario. We basically have to pass Atlanta to secure the 5th seed. Or Orlando, but that doesn't seem probable.




They could go 9-7 I suppose, but a big part of the recent surge was a very favorable section of the schedule (akin to the Pacers 6 game win streak).


Even if the Hawks go 9-7 (with an easier remaining schedule than us), we'd need to go 12-7 to overtake them (they won the season series 2-1). That's possible, but would take heroic effort.



So it looks like a horse race to the finish among PHI, ATL, BOS and IND (in various seeding variations).

Thanks to the division winner rule, not all teams are created equal though. One of Philly or Boston will get 4 seed, with the other likely getting 7 seed. That leaves Atlanta and Indiana to jockey for the 5 and 6 seeds.

Naptown_Seth
03-27-2012, 12:17 PM
I'm pretty sure after the MIL game that the team is now just intentionally :censored: ing with me.
See what I mean.


Thanks to the division winner rule, not all teams are created equal though. One of Philly or Boston will get 4 seed, with the other likely getting 7 seed. That leaves Atlanta and Indiana to jockey for the 5 and 6 seeds.
No, I meant the Pacers will be fighting one of those teams for the #7 seed, not the division winner.

5 - IND
6 - ATL
7 - PHI/BOS

At the time (pre-Miami win) it was really still feeling like slipping not just to 6 but to 7 based on how hot BOS/PHI get

Naptown_Seth
03-27-2012, 01:39 PM
Some re-eval after the surprising win

Tue 13 vs Portland W
Wed 14 vs Philadelphia L
Fri 16 @ New York L
Sat 17 vs New York W
Tue 20 vs LA Clippers L
Thu 22 @ Washington W
Fri 23 vs Phoenix W
Sat 24 @ Milwaukee L
Mon 26 vs Miami L

Peck predictions 3 right, 6 wrong (um...;) )
He had them at 4-5
They went 6-3

Wed 28 @ New Jersey W
Thu 29 vs Washington W
Sat 31 @ San Antonio L




This is after these home games were played but I had assumed the following originally:
POR W
PHI W

Well that Knicks loss is kinda bad. It went into the 7 game pool of winnable road games.

@NYK
@WSH
@MIL

@NJ
@WSH
@CLE
@MIL

They need to win 5 of the remaining 6. The 2 MIL games are especially tricky.

They only need to go 11-4 at home.
Wins

NYK
PHX

WSH
NYK
BOS
TOR
CLE
MIN
MIL
PHI
DET

Losses
LAC
MIA
OKC
CHI

And the 3 road losses - SAS, HOU, PHI
So I had them 4-2 in the home games starting with POR and they went 4-2, they just did it by winning 2 games I thought they'd lose and losing 2 they should have won.

Here was my original records goals without a "per team"

3 hard to win road games, 7 weaker teams on the road, 17 home games.

Let's just be reasonable about this:
0-3 vs tough road games
5-2 vs easier road games (this is how the Pacers got the winning road record after all)
13-4 at homeTough road games (goal 0-3) = 0 played, cannot do worse than my prediction ;)

Easy road games (5-2) = 2-1 so far
They'd need to go 3-1 playing at NJ, WSH, CLE, MIL. I still find this reasonable.

Home games (13-4) = 4-2 so far
Expected them to be 4-2 in those games.

I didn't really predict which road games they'd lose like Peck did, so I can't take pro/con credit for any of those 3 predictions. I'm 2-4 on the exact home W-L, but dead on with my expectations.



I'm not trying to flip-flop or hedge my meltdown (which was justified IMO), but I am saying that with the LAC, @MIL and MIA wins the Pacers managed to basically take the hard way around to the exact same outcome the "easy" schedule suggested.


I'd like to say that it's obvious they will win road game @NJ or home games vs WSH, but at this point who knows. I just know what a #3 seed SHOULD DO, and you couldn't ask for a much nicer ending run of games than they have. I mean the 5 hardest games the rest of the way are:
@SAS
CHI
OKC
@HOU
@PHI

If they take care of the easier stuff then they don't even have to win any of those games to have success.

Peck
03-27-2012, 01:45 PM
This team sometimes gives me a headache.

I don't even know what to expect. There wasn't a one of us who gave them a hope in hell of beating the Heat last night & honestly most of us had that Bucks game either being close or a loss and they go out and destroy both of them.

We are trending up again & honestly if they now have the confidence to play anyone, well they can.

As long as the Defense stays up & Darren & Roy are out of thier funks the end run could be significantly different from what I predicted.

However a loss to the Wizards could just change all of our minds again, so who knows.

It sure beats the past few years though knowing that we were already out of the playoff hunt.

righteouscool
03-27-2012, 01:54 PM
This team sometimes gives me a headache.

I don't even know what to expect. There wasn't a one of us who gave them a hope in hell of beating the Heat last night & honestly most of us had that Bucks game either being close or a loss and they go out and destroy both of them.

We are trending up again & honestly if they now have the confidence to play anyone, well they can.

As long as the Defense stays up & Darren & Roy are out of thier funks the end run could be significantly different from what I predicted.

However a loss to the Wizards could just change all of our minds again, so who knows.

It sure beats the past few years though knowing that we were already out of the playoff hunt.

This team is so inconsistent, which is expected with a younger team, but even the veterans have been inconsistent. If Granger finally found his offensive rhythm then the Pacers are going to go to another level. The last few games he has looked great offensively.

I think adding Barbosa and Fesenko is huge. The Pacers are now actually have a ton of depth and the size to play with anyone in the front court. George Hill and Barbosa can run other benches out of the gym. I will say, and I hated adding Lou, that I'm going to be bummed seeing him go to the bench. I hope he gets some back up time at PF.

BillS
03-27-2012, 02:13 PM
It sure beats the past few years though knowing that we were already out of the playoff hunt.

Hell, I'm just glad the "T word" isn't part of the conversation this year.

Naptown_Seth
03-28-2012, 05:20 PM
Hell, I'm just glad the "T word" isn't part of the conversation this year.
It's not too late. This draft is so deep. You can't win without tanking as the Pacers are (not) proving for the 3rd time in 20 years.

No tank required to:
Draft Danny #17
Trade JO for salary breakup and #17 which becomes Hibbert
Trade Troy for DC
Sign David West

I wouldn't consider the draft locations of Tyler, Paul or "Hill" to be tank caliber spots. People were mad that they played good enough to get "stuck" in those spots rather than getting in the running for a #3-4 pick.

Lou came from Rush which came from another outside 10 pick. So where is this magical draft spot in the top 5 that made this team a serious 2nd round contender from non-playoff status?

Pacers fans who buy the "you must tank" myth are just dumb. No fanbase has more history of getting Finals caliber without tanking than Pacers fans.

Naptown_Seth
04-04-2012, 01:36 PM
Tough road games (goal 0-3) = 0 played, cannot do worse than my prediction ;)

They'd need to go 3-1 playing at NJ, WSH, CLE, MIL. I still find this reasonable.

Home games (13-4) = 4-2 so far
Expected them to be 4-2 in those games.

Hard Road (0-3 goal, 1-1 so far)
@PHI left...success on this section I think

Easy Road (5-2 goal, 2-2 so far)
Lost to NJ, need to go 3-0 vs WSH, CLE, MIL
Or 2-1 if the Houston win makes up for the NJ loss.

Home (13-4 goal, so far 6-2)
They are almost halfway there despite the scare

18-9 goal total

18-9 the rest of the way at worst, unless the team turns into a joke. That's 41-25 and might be enough to end up ahead of Orlando. And I don't think it's crazy to think that they could beat the Spurs, Rockets or Philly on the road. Upside seems closer to a 21-6 run.

Peck
04-04-2012, 01:42 PM
I just gave up on trying to predict the outcome and am along for the ride.

There are nights where I say bring on the Bulls and other nights I fear playing the Bobcats.

However overall there has been a lot more good than bad and I think that a good strong run with some wins against quality teams (Miami, N.Y., & Houston comes to mind) and let's just let the playoff chips fall where they may. As it stands we are going to be facing the Hawks which does not thrill me but hey it beats playing the Heat or Bulls.

Naptown_Seth
04-05-2012, 12:53 PM
I'm with you on that, but at the same time I look at some of the crazy outcomes and think that maybe part of the problem is that we are too close to it. We don't scrutinize outcomes of the Boston or Orlando games by quarter or by substitutions per game. At best you look game by game and at the final score.

So by that standard an outsider sees a fairly easy Knicks game, sees the Pacers handle the Rockets except for letting them have a shot late on a couple of mistakes and sees them kill the Wiz.

No one looks at the 3rd quarter score of Orlando vs Utah from whenever to decide if that was a "good" win.


Part of the reason I'm keeping the thread alive is for that big picture. I started it by saying "here comes a nice finish to the season" and predicted 18-9 as very realistic. Ignoring the bumps of bad losses and great wins and just looking at the overall production this is a team right on track. Sitting at 9-5 halfway through the run looks like 18-9 is reasonable.

We expected it to look different, for the wins and losses to come from different teams and in different ways. But I suspect that if we were on the wagon of some other team in this range we'd be having the same doubts and confusion.

Certainly what can a Knicks fan take away from their up and down season? What is a Celtics fan to think at this point, or a Magic fan? Those teams are putting together similar bad losses and good wins in a way that is pretty inconsistent at times.


And I'm not just preaching this to you or PD; I'm saying it to myself as well. You don't want to accept any loss, but maybe this is just what 18-9 looks like. It doesn't play right by the book. Otherwise Vegas would be out of cash.

But that doesn't mean in the larger picture the outcome doesn't pan out thanks to an overall trend to be at home more and playing weaker teams more, even if you lose some of those. They were always going to win some tough games too. It's just that in an easy stretch you don't have to win as many tough games/surprise wins to maintain a pretty good record.

NYK and WSH afford you the chance to fall behind or to play sluggish and still pull out a win. That's what "easy schedule" really means I think.

Unclebuck
04-05-2012, 01:31 PM
I'm with you on that, but at the same time I look at some of the crazy outcomes and think that maybe part of the problem is that we are too close to it. We don't scrutinize outcomes of the Boston or Orlando games by quarter or by substitutions per game. At best you look game by game and at the final score.

So by that standard an outsider sees a fairly easy Knicks game, sees the Pacers handle the Rockets except for letting them have a shot late on a couple of mistakes and sees them kill the Wiz.

No one looks at the 3rd quarter score of Orlando vs Utah from whenever to decide if that was a "good" win.


Part of the reason I'm keeping the thread alive is for that big picture. I started it by saying "here comes a nice finish to the season" and predicted 18-9 as very realistic. Ignoring the bumps of bad losses and great wins and just looking at the overall production this is a team right on track. Sitting at 9-5 halfway through the run looks like 18-9 is reasonable.

We expected it to look different, for the wins and losses to come from different teams and in different ways. But I suspect that if we were on the wagon of some other team in this range we'd be having the same doubts and confusion.

Certainly what can a Knicks fan take away from their up and down season? What is a Celtics fan to think at this point, or a Magic fan? Those teams are putting together similar bad losses and good wins in a way that is pretty inconsistent at times.


And I'm not just preaching this to you or PD; I'm saying it to myself as well. You don't want to accept any loss, but maybe this is just what 18-9 looks like. It doesn't play right by the book. Otherwise Vegas would be out of cash.

But that doesn't mean in the larger picture the outcome doesn't pan out thanks to an overall trend to be at home more and playing weaker teams more, even if you lose some of those. They were always going to win some tough games too. It's just that in an easy stretch you don't have to win as many tough games/surprise wins to maintain a pretty good record.

NYK and WSH afford you the chance to fall behind or to play sluggish and still pull out a win. That's what "easy schedule" really means I think.


I nominate this for post of the year and in fact I would make this required reading for anyone in Pacers Digest

I agree 100% on all of your points

Hicks
04-05-2012, 01:36 PM
I nominate this for post of the year and in fact I would make this required reading for anyone in Pacers Digest

I agree 100% on all of your points

Agreed. I even just tweeted that post to my followers with the hash tag #perspective

naptownmenace
04-05-2012, 02:34 PM
Seth has a good point. At this time next year, we won't be thinking about how the Pacers lost to the Nets after beating the Heat.

If you were to go back in time and grab any diehard Pacers fan from this time last year and told them that the Pacers would be 33-21 and 3rd in the East behind Chicago and Miami they'd be overjoyed!

Perspective. We need to make sure we have it.

Naptown_Seth
04-12-2012, 09:39 PM
NYK and WSH afford you the chance to fall behind or to play sluggish and still pull out a win. That's what "easy schedule" really means I think. Wow, I could drop in CLE in place of WSH to make the same point.

You F around in the last 2 games with CHI or SAS and it's all over, but with the easier schedule you have the ability to lock down and salvage a near slip-up.


Since I started the thread/they started this section after the 4 brutal games in a row and I suggested the 18-9 number to end the year they've gone 13-6.

18-9 requires only 5-3 in the following games...

CLE
@MIL (b2b)
MIN
@PHI (b2b)
MIL
PHI
DET
CHI

The final 4 games are home games and aren't even on back to back nights. The 2 b2b pairs start at home with a weaker team. CHI is the only really serious threat in the home games and could be resting players for the final game.

They could lose more than 3, but they certainly shouldn't. And the 2 road games and CHI all fall under the category of very winnable.


By the way, the perspective:

Up to the beginning of this 27 game run - 23-16 for .590
If they go 18-9 that's .667, 17-10 is .630

I'd say that looks like the payoff for starting out with the hard work and ending with the rewards of dealing with the tough stuff first. I know I'm enjoying the heck out of it.

Naptown_Seth
04-16-2012, 10:57 PM
18-9 requires only 5-3 in the following games...

CLE
@MIL (b2b)
MIN

@PHI (b2b)
MIL
PHI
DET
CHI
2-3 in these final 5 games hits that 18-9 goal.


I had a meltdown after the NYK games and as Peck said tonight it was perhaps a little justified due to the situation, but in the end the original vibe has held better than true even.

The easier load might even be paying off by allowing the guys to start to find their way as a team and to establish what their identity as a group on the court is.


They have a decent shot at going 20-7 to finish out, let alone 18-9. Easier stretch of the schedule or not, that's darn good work by the team. Especially in recovering from games like the SAS game or the NKY pair.

Nuntius
04-16-2012, 11:03 PM
It has to feel very good that you were right from the beggining but wrong in your meltdown :p

Pacersalltheway10
04-16-2012, 11:10 PM
Seth has a good point. At this time next year, we won't be thinking about how the Pacers lost to the Nets after beating the Heat.

If you were to go back in time and grab any diehard Pacers fan from this time last year and told them that the Pacers would be 33-21 and 3rd in the East behind Chicago and Miami they'd be overjoyed!

Perspective. We need to make sure we have it.

Am I the only one who knew they were going to skyrocket? It was just a matter of time. I knew Bird was going to spend wisely and put the Pacers in a spot for homecourt advantage this season.

Naptown_Seth
04-17-2012, 11:12 PM
That's 24 winnable vs 3 tough, and given the status of Philly (winning at home mostly) and Houston (better but questions), and even the health of the Spurs, the Pacers are really close to being in a position to make an epic run if they only step up to the plate and TCOB.

And given their road record already, they are in good position to maintain a +500 road record for the year.
http://www.pacersdigest.com/showpost.php?p=1364410&postcount=18

Kid Minny had a link in the Philly hammer thread going back to the "Are the Pacers tied for the best record thread" where there was a lot of discussion about both the looming Philly collapse and a potential Pacers run. I've quoted myself, but there were plenty of PDers discussing this.


I really should have listened closer to myself instead of getting so caught up in the game to game level which I've already admitted of course. But still, looking back at other comments that I forgot about I (and some other PDers) really should have been keeping the faith all along.

The Houston game was winnable and Philly was shakey. So in the end they were able to win 2 of their final 3 tough road games (SAS, HOU, PHI), and tossed in what could have been a 4th tough game with a win at MIL.

They did go over .500 on the road as predicted, and I think it's safe to say that 10-1 with 6 in a row counts as an epic run.

Naptown_Seth
04-17-2012, 11:24 PM
And the re-eval again on the original goals:


Let's just be reasonable about this:
0-3 vs tough road games
5-2 vs easier road games (this is how the Pacers got the winning road record after all)
13-4 at home
2-1 vs tough road games (+2 on expected)

5-2 vs easier road games (as expected)

10-3 at home (need to go 3-1 to reach this)

So for 18-9 overall goal they only need to go 1-3 in the next 4 home games (MIL, PHI, DET, CHI).

If they go 3-1 and match the expected home record then they will have gone 20-7 instead.

If Chicago rests or the Pacers just continue to play at the current level to finish on a 10-0 run then you have this...

Upside seems closer to a 21-6 run.

It's one thing to think it could happen, to see the logic in how it could unfold, and another to then see it come to life. Look at the mood, talk to the growing number of casual fans paying attention. All that's left is the national attention that a couple of more wins will definitely bring, just on the sheer power of the April record and the win streak (if they can hold it).

Hicks
04-17-2012, 11:34 PM
All that's left is a solid showing in the playoffs.

Naptown_Seth
04-21-2012, 05:28 PM
They won't catch Miami or Chicago, but they could end up making a great run to the playoffs and really build some momentum with the casual fans.
Looks like this is panning out too.