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rel
03-03-2012, 11:49 PM
@Chicago
Atlanta
@Miami
@Orlando
Portland
Philadelphia
@New York
New York
LA Clippers

How do you guys think we'll do during this stretch?
...extending our streak to 15 is pretty much out the window :P
The best I could see us doing is 6-3, but I realistically see us going 5-4.

TMJ31
03-03-2012, 11:56 PM
Well, I would like to see us go 1-0 in our next game, and then repeat that for the remainder of the season.

This is a perfectly obtainable goal if we play our game the right way.

Now of course, this won't happen. But if our team has proven anything, it's that we can beat elite teams home and away.

So I prefer not to get into the whole "project the next X number of games" thing. I really think that every game in this stretch, while difficult, is winnable.

joeyd
03-03-2012, 11:59 PM
This is great. I was just going to start a thread with similar intentions.

7 games ago I posted that I'd be happy if we went 6-1 even against the run against bad teams. That's b/c even bad teams can play well, and some of the teams including Cleveland, who we lost to, can actually play very well on occasion, especially at home. Kyrie Irving is going to be very special, but I digress. We went 6-1 and I'm happy.

I'm happy if we beat Atlanta, Portland, Philly and NY at home. If we win those games and lose the other 5 respectably, I will be happy. If we win 1 game on the road, then we will have gone 5-4 against likely playoff teams, and I will be ecstatic heading into our stretch run, where the schedule tends to favor us.

Hicks
03-04-2012, 12:16 AM
@Chicago
Atlanta
@Miami
@Orlando
Portland
Philadelphia
@New York
New York
LA Clippers

How do you guys think we'll do during this stretch?
...extending our streak to 15 is pretty much out the window :P
The best I could see us doing is 6-3, but I realistically see us going in the 5-4.

I'd love to win 5 of them. Let me take a guess:

x (day off)
MON @ CHI L
TUE vs ATL W
x
x
x
SAT @ MIA L
SUN @ ORL L
x
TUE vs POR W
WED vs PHI W
x
FRI @ NYK W
SAT vs NYK W
x
x
TUE vs LAC W

Wow, I guess I have us at 6-3, but I could easily see us losing vs PHI and @ NYK, and LAC is no cake walk, either.

So while I look at that and with a slight rosy tint come away with 6-3 based off of what we've done thus far and lately, it could just as easily be 3-6.

This would be a VERY impressive 9 games if we win 5+ of them. 3-6 or worse would be disappointing, but I wouldn't really feel much shame if we go 4-5.

Sookie
03-04-2012, 12:22 AM
Jeez that is tough. I think if we can come away with four, we should be decently happy. My guess:

We win Portland, Philly, and one of the New York games.
We lose against Chicago and Miami.

I think Atlanta, Orlando, and the Clippers are up in the air. But I do think we can win one of the three, which would get us to four.

Anthem
03-04-2012, 12:26 AM
I'd love to win 5 of them.
Oh gosh. 5 would make me ecstatic. 4 would be good, and 3 wouldn't make me happy but I wouldn't freak out either.

Nuntius
03-04-2012, 12:26 AM
@Chicago
Atlanta
@Miami
@Orlando
Portland
Philadelphia
@New York
New York
LA Clippers



@ Chicago: I hope that we can win Chicago for the second straight time in their house. This would make them furious since it would mean that we won the regular season series between us this season. However, realistically I don't see us doing this again. I expect a loss but I see us playing well and stay close.

Vs Atlanta: I see us winning against Atlanta. Mainly, because we're in our home floor. They won against OKC and I don't want them to climb any higher. So, I want a W here.

@ Miami: That's a loss, of course. We do not match up well with the Heat and the only way they lose is inflicted by themselves. I just hope we don't get run out of the gym.

@ Orlando: I surely hope we don't let again a losing streak happen. What we should be after is playing at least .500 ball against playoff competition. The Magic have beat us to our home court twice and we have beat them in their home court once. I'd like for it to become 2-2 since this is our last game against the Magic. I don't expect anything as Orlando is unpredictable. I want a W, though.

Vs Portland: If this was in Rose Garden, I'd say it's a loss. However, Portland is 5-12 on the road. Plus, they are the worst team in the NBA when it comes to close out games. It's gonna be a tough match up but I hope we come out victorious. Just like we did with Utah.

Vs Philadelphia: We have to win Philly. We have to prove that the reason they beat us earlier was due to missing Hill and Danny. Now, the injuries are on their side. We should come out victorious in this one.

@ New York: Depends. If we lose to Philly (hope we don't) then we pretty much have to go to New York and beat them. MSG is a strong arena with all the Linsanity going on. Ultimately, I'd want us to win this but it strongly depends on what we do vs Philly. If we beat Philly, we may let this slip by.

Vs New York: We should beat the Knicks on our arena. I expect a win.

Vs LA Clippers: We're going to have terrible match up issues with the Clippers. I don't think we match up well with them. I see us losing this one but I still expect us to keep it close.

Ultimately, the most probable outcome is 5-4. I could live with a 4-5 but anything less would be bad. I would be ecstatic with a 6-3 or better.

TheDon
03-04-2012, 12:31 AM
I really think we're going to beat chicago, yes it's at the united center again but it's also on the tail end of a back to back for them and I think that might washout that little advantage. that is, unless, they absolutely destroy the sixers and are able to rest up during that game.

PGisthefuture
03-04-2012, 12:32 AM
@Chicago
Atlanta
@Miami
@Orlando
Portland
Philadelphia
@New York
New York
LA Clippers

How do you guys think we'll do during this stretch?
...extending our streak to 15 is pretty much out the window :P
The best I could see us doing is 6-3, but I realistically see us going 5-4.

I think we will build off this momentum and beat the Bulls. It's going to be a fun game to watch because we are coming off a 6 game winning streak and the Bulls can't wait to play us again. This is how I see it....
@Chicago-W
VS Atlanta-W
@Miami-L
@Orlando-W
Portland-L
Philadelphia-W
@New York-L
New York-W
Clippers-W

This is being very optimistic obviously, but the team seems serious about being one of the best teams in the league after the All-Star break. It's tough to judge how we will do against Miami, but I'm looking for it to be a little more competitive than the previous matchups with them...

Shade
03-04-2012, 12:35 AM
5-4. Losses at Chicago, Miami, and NY, and at home to the Clippers.

Day-V
03-04-2012, 12:40 AM
I have:

@Chicago - L
Atlanta - W
@Miami - L
@Orlando - W
Portland - W
Philadelphia - W
@New York - L
New York - W
LA Clippers - W



Wow, I too have 6-3. I really would be happy with 4-5, 5-4, but damn.

Eddie Gill
03-04-2012, 12:45 AM
I'd be happy with 5 wins, ecstatic with 6. Regardless of the record over these next 9, I'd like to see us beat Atlanta and Orlando. Seems like we've struggled against them and odds are we're gonna see one of the two in the playoffs.

rel
03-04-2012, 12:51 AM
Guess I'll play my own game...

@Chicago - W
Atlanta - W
@Miami - L
@Orlando - L
Portland - W
Philadelphia - W
@New York - L
New York - W
LA Clippers - L

(5-4)

Obviously I hope I'm wrong on those L's. If we could somehow beat Chicago AND Miami and get through this stretch with 6 wins...people would be required to talk about us.

somewhat off-topic...but is anyone else kinda glad this upcoming Bulls game is the away game? I'm dreading to see the Bulls play in Banker's Life and see a sea of red. Hopefully a few statement wins here can help the crowd be a bit more blue when we actually host the them.

Eleazar
03-04-2012, 12:54 AM
You know I think we will actually beat the Heat this time.

PGisthefuture
03-04-2012, 01:02 AM
You know I think we will actually beat the Heat this time.

It depends on how we are against Chicago and Atlanta for me. If we win both of those games I am guessing our guys will be feeling very good about themselves. If that's the case I could see us finally beating Miami this season.

LetsTalkPacers
03-04-2012, 01:22 AM
It depends on how we are against Chicago and Atlanta for me. If we win both of those games I am guessing our guys will be feeling very good about themselves. If that's the case I could see us finally beating Miami this season.
IF

15th parallel
03-04-2012, 02:21 AM
Call me blind optimistic, but only against Miami is the most probable loss based on how the first 2 matchups ended up.

Chicago is a tough matchup but I think the Pacers are somehow a "partial kryptonite" against that team. They defend Rose very well and Boozer is somehow less effective when playing against Tyler or West.

Atlanta's athleticism are the killers for the Pacers, but right now with the currently built team I don't think winning against this team is as improbable as compared to previous seasons.

Miami is currently one dominant team that when they outrun opponents, it's a sure win for them. Well if things slow down and the defense makes them struggle at half court then the Pacers has a good chance.

Orlando wins when their offense is clicking and loses most of the time if they don't. So that game's pretty much unpredictable. But if the Pacers shoot as great as the last few games against Orlando, I don't see them losing this game.

Portland is struggling right now so I don't think this game is as hard as advertised. But of course, the Pacers should not let their guard down against that team that still has deadly players like Aldridge.

Philly is also struggling as of late, probably because of the schedule against tough teams, but this should be a statement game to determine who is really the better team of the two that are having a "feel-good story" for their current run this season.

I'm still not convinced about New York. It would be disappointing if we lose against this team, really. Maybe because I hate that team with passion, but still...

Somehow I'm looking forward against the Clippers this season. Let's see how Blake plays against West/Tyler, and if PG will be manning CP3 (which I think will definitely make CP3 strugle).

skyfire
03-04-2012, 02:59 AM
We've got 4 back to backs and a 4 games in 5 nights in this stretch.

We also follow this 9 game stretch with our 2nd back to back to back (@Wash, Phx, @Milw).

All the home games look winnable. Clips should be a very interesting matchup.

The game against Phili is a real danger game as its the 4th in 5 nights and they will have had 2 days rest.

pwee31
03-04-2012, 09:01 AM
Seeing the next stretch, and I'm shocked we've yet to play the Bucks, whom is in our division

PacerPenguins
03-04-2012, 09:11 AM
well to tell u the truth i say we for 6-3 with losses to miami orlando and chicago..... I'm not really worried about portland, new york or philly

2minutes twoa
03-04-2012, 10:09 AM
6-3 hopefully. 5-4 realistically. 4-5 possibly. Just please, PLEASE beat Chicago!!!

Naptown_Seth
03-04-2012, 10:35 AM
I probably should start back up "A Closer Look" and stick this long "post" there instead. I wanted that space to be videos, but this is basically an article instead of a post. "Enjoy" the length. ;)



I disagree with Wells about "toughest" part of the schedule. On W-L it is a run of tougher teams, but the Sixers and Knicks are still trying to prove they aren't themselves frauds hiding behind easier stretches of schedule (see the Hammer comes to Philly thread).

They have a "mini-hammer" with 4 games vs very serious East opponents mostly on the road - @CHI, ATL, @MIA, @ORL. Miami and Orlando are on back to back nights, albeit a relatively short travel time in nice weather and ending in the milder of the two cities in terms of distractions.

But between ATL and MIA you also have THREE DAYS OFF. 3. Again, after just having 2 days off prior to the NOR trip. This doesn't mean they will beat Miami because they won't. Miami will be on 2 days rest having played at home vs ATL before that, so they'll be in good shape.

But it does mean rest/recovery/practice in general to learn from the CHI/ATL games and maybe to prep enough to figure out ORL for the season split.

Back to CHI/ATL, those are also back to back, but the ATL game is home and the Pacers are only 3 hours drive up the road the night before which is a virtual home game for them in terms of travel/rest.

So ATL and maybe ORL are winnable in that 4 game set.




Then the rest of the "hard" portion:

POR/PHI on back to back HOME games with a day off after the ORL game. POR isn't even at .500 right now (so the premise is wrong anyway).

Portland comes to Indiana on GAME FOUR of a SEVEN GAME ROAD TRIP. Yes, that says 7 road games in a row. From Portland. None of these games are in Oakland, SLCity or LA, which are the only "close" cities to them. This is a true East coast swing in every sense of the word, with the closest cities on the trip being Minneapolis and OKC.

This means two things - 1, they will be ragged even by game 4. 2, they probably aren't as good as their record if they have a 7 game trip against a bunch of teams over .500 themselves (WSH is the only loser on the trip).

They get 2 days rest before their Indy game. Problem is the game before is in DC which is about as East as you can get from Portland. This means 2 days off ON THE ROAD because who would risk the jetlag mind-bender of WSH to POR to INDY over 3 days? Either way it's not what you'd call 2 quality days off.


And then we have Philly, star of "the Hammer comes to Philly" because of games just like this. After getting fat on weak teams at home, Philly hit reality and put the nose of the jet to dive as hard as possible toward .500.

Philly has ONE ROAD WIN vs a team over .500. They beat ATL. For perspective ATL had just lost at home to MEM and then again lost AT HOME to PHX a few nights later. (this makes the Pacers loss to ATL a few nights later look worse)


Plus, since Hawes went down it's only made things worse (he started missing games on Jan 18). Hawes isn't expected to return till AT LEAST March 14. So at best he's back for the Pacers game, and even if he is this would be his first game back after almost 2 months of non-action.


So POR/PHI go down as "no excuse to lose" games, not "tough" ones.




NYK - a back to back, home and home set. Well after the Linsanity run of 7 straight wins, most of which were against somewhat favorable opponents, the Knicks have gone into full-on .500 mode. 3-3 in their last 6.

The Knicks just went 3-2 on a 5 game HOME stand against - SAC, NO, DAL, NJ, ATL, and only 1 of those was a back to back game (and it wasn't DAL). 3-2 falls toward the disappointing end of their expected results.

Since Melo's return they went 2 (ATL, CLE) and 2 (NJ, @MIA). And Lin is becoming a mixed bag of results, having a few nice outings (DAL, ATL) and a few clunkers (NO, MIA..1-11 with 8 TOs).

The Knicks have 4 games prior to seeing the Pacers in MSG, all of them are on the road: BOS (ABC today), DAL, SA, MIL. If they lose @BOS today then they seem almost certain to go 1-3 in those 4. And that would mean that they WILL NOT BE OVER .500 when they play the Pacers.

So when Wells cites all these games vs teams over .500, he needs to wait to see if this is even true in regards to the Knicks by the time the games are played.



Finally the Clippers. A strong team certainly, but this is in Indy and is a true road game for them since they only have 1 travel day after playing in LA the 2 previous nights (HOU, DET). The Pacers are catching them on the first day of the time zone change as well.

But to be fair, the Clips get it worse than this because they have ZERO travel days the next 2 nights and have to go to OKC and then NOR. Yes, that's 3 straight days, 3 different cities. It's a nice, natural progression southward, but still...no travel days at all. Don't feel too sorry for them, the go back home for a cushy 5 game home stand after this.



And finally the road records of teams coming to Indy in general.
(overall, vs teams currently .500, borderline teams)

ATL (10-9, 2-8 - not counting road loss to POR)
POR (5-12, 1-7 - not counting road loss to UTH)
PHI (8-8, 1-6 - not counting road losses to POR, UTH)
NYK (7-9, 1-7 with the 1 win being by 2 over MIN during Linsanity, Rubio turned it over twice in final 25 seconds, once after Lin went 1-2 FT with 4 seconds left)
LAC (9-8, 3-3 but one loss was @LAL - not counting 2-2 vs POR,UTH)


In other words, while the Clips can hold their own on the road, the other 4 teams STINK on the road, scheduling frauds on the verge of being found out.

5-4 is the MINIMAL expectation for "we are a legit #3-4 team in the East" caliber team. And after this the schedule gets downright gravy. We have this 4 game run (next 4) and the Texas Two at the end of the month (SA/HOU) and that's it. Everything else is very favorable, including the 5 games that follow this 4 game set.

The hammer is over. Time for big time winning to kick in.

Steagles
03-04-2012, 11:03 AM
I have:
@Chicago W
Atlanta W
@Miami L
@Orlando L
Portland W
Philadelphia W
@New York L
New York W
LA Clippers L
I do think we can beat Chicago at United again. I think what Rose said after the last game will motivate both teams, and I expect Danny to beat up on them and West to have a field day against Boozer.

For Atlanta, home court helps a lot, but I think they could pull it off in Atlanta as well. So long as our bigs from the bench play decently, I think this is a win.

In Miami. Need I say more?

In Orlando, I see us being very very close the entire game. I have a feeling that we lose, due to the 3 point shots and post presence. In the event that Dwight Howard is moved, I don't care who they get in return, we win.

In Portland, I think we win, just on the fact that we'll be pissed off dropping the two in Florida. Without Roy, and healthy Oden I think they aren't a very good team anyway. They are the team that could've been, not that are.

Against Philly, I think we win in a close game until the 4th, when our starters start taking over. Iguodala and Danny will be fun to watch.

The two New York games will be close throughout, but I think the home team wins each. While Melo and Amare go and score, we will be playing defense and hopefully pressuring Lin into turnovers. For this reason, I would love to see Paul on Lin, because once Lin starts commiting turnovers, he can't stop.

Vs the Clippers, I think we lose by a considerable margin. Chris Paul will run over DC. Although our scrappy is effective, when we face multiple good players along with a great player, we just can't compete. That is, unless our guys have great games and synergize well.

Pacer Fan
03-04-2012, 11:12 AM
@Chicago - W
Atlanta - W
@Miami - W
@Orlando - W
Portland - W
Philadelphia - W
@New York - W
New York - W
LA Clippers - W

Until proven otherwise!

BlueNGold
03-04-2012, 11:20 AM
@Chicago-L
VS Atlanta-W
@Miami-L
@Orlando-W
Portland-W
Philadelphia-W
@New York-L
New York-W
Clippers-L

2minutes twoa
03-04-2012, 11:21 AM
@Chicago - W
Atlanta - W
@Miami - W
@Orlando - W
Portland - W
Philadelphia - W
@New York - W
New York - W
LA Clippers - W

Until proven otherwise!

Love the optimism! Hope you're right!

BlueNGold
03-04-2012, 11:22 AM
If we can just win 3 games, I'd live with that as long as it's Miami, Philly and one of the NY games.

PGisthefuture
03-04-2012, 11:27 AM
@Chicago - W
Atlanta - W
@Miami - W
@Orlando - W
Portland - W
Philadelphia - W
@New York - W
New York - W
LA Clippers - W

Until proven otherwise!

:1optimist

PacerPenguins
03-04-2012, 11:41 AM
@Chicago - W
Atlanta - W
@Miami - W
@Orlando - W
Portland - W
Philadelphia - W
@New York - W
New York - W
LA Clippers - W

Until proven otherwise!

that would make us 32-12 :buddies:

Gold
03-04-2012, 11:53 AM
@Chicago - W
Atlanta - W
@Miami - W
@Orlando - W
Portland - W
Philadelphia - W
@New York - W
New York - W
LA Clippers - W

Until proven otherwise!

Yes, this.

PaceBalls
03-04-2012, 12:53 PM
Great post Seth, you've convinced me it isn't near as bad as I thought it was. I especially liked the last stats of the records of teams visiting us at home.

If we can come out over .500 which seems very doable, we will be in great shape the rest of the season.

Isaac
03-04-2012, 03:37 PM
5-4 or better and we will probably be locked in to the three seed for the rest of the season.

joeyd
03-04-2012, 03:39 PM
We have a puncher's chance against the Heat despite what happened the last two games. I expect a much better showing next time.

daschysta
03-04-2012, 03:44 PM
Like Seth said, just because of schedule circumstances some of our opponents will be dealing with will leave them vulnerable. Plus i'm not overly worried about NY Paul George will eat lin alive with pressure defense, and West can win his matchup vs. today's stoudemire, who has declined alot.

I think we go 6-3 to finish off the season in smashing fashion, and separate ourselves as the clear 3rd best team in the East this year.

AesopRockOn
03-04-2012, 10:54 PM
We have a puncher's chance against the Heat despite what happened the last two games. I expect a much better showing next time.

I think I agree with you. If someone punches Lebron James in the face, and he ends up getting thrown out within the first quarter, we've got a shot!

Haywoode Workman
03-05-2012, 04:18 PM
L@Chicago
WAtlanta
L@Miami
L@Orlando
WPortland
WPhiladelphia
W@New York
WNew York
WLA Clippers

Unclebuck
03-05-2012, 04:32 PM
I think we might do rather well in the next 9 games. But the games after that are what concerns me. The number of games in a short period of time is relentless starting Saturday night and it does not stop until the regular season is over. That will catch up with us as I think the primary reason why we lost 5 straight a few weeks ago and played poorly was the lack of practice time and tired legs. That makes a huge difference and I do not believe it can be overstated.

BillS
03-05-2012, 04:48 PM
That will catch up with us as I think the primary reason why we lost 5 straight a few weeks ago and played poorly was the lack of practice time and tired legs. That makes a huge difference and I do not believe it can be overstated.

I think the 3 days we had for practice recently will help with that side of it, as I don't think many other teams will have time to practice in order to counter us.

One just hopes the number of players we have to throw at each position will give us breathing space near the end of the season. Not every team will have someone to dominate specific Pacer deep-bench players.

Sookie
03-05-2012, 05:07 PM
I think we might do rather well in the next 9 games. But the games after that are what concerns me. The number of games in a short period of time is relentless starting Saturday night and it does not stop until the regular season is over. That will catch up with us as I think the primary reason why we lost 5 straight a few weeks ago and played poorly was the lack of practice time and tired legs. That makes a huge difference and I do not believe it can be overstated.

I agree. And the thing is, people think that a team like the Pacers have an advantage in those stretches, because they are younger.

I don't think that's true. I think stretches like that test players mental toughness, not necessarily physical ones. And so I think a younger team is more likely to get worn down.

Our depth though will help us. The fact that we go ten deep and that our bench is good enough where some games they'll probably be able to pick up the slack when the starters falter, helps us.

naptownmenace
03-05-2012, 05:54 PM
W -@Chicago
W -Atlanta
L -@Miami
W -@Orlando
L -Portland
W -Philadelphia
L -@New York
W -New York
L -LA Clippers

5 wins, 4 losses. I think they'll shock Chicago again tonight and bounce back after a loss to Miami with a win against Orlando. The rest are just guesses but I could easily see them losing to Orlando and winning against Portland.

Naptown_Seth
03-08-2012, 12:53 PM
This isn't spin and I should have said it sooner to prove that, but honestly if you can only go 1-3 in these 4 games then the BETTER WIN is vs Orlando than vs Atlanta.

ATL is going to struggle to push the Pacers for the 3rd seed. Splitting the series for ORL and giving them not just a loss but another East loss is way more important than the ATL win would have been.

Yes going 0-4 is worse than 1-3. I'm just comparing the 2 variations of 1-3 and the one where it's ORL losing is the best one (even better than a win vs Mia and loss to ORL).



So how about those +500 Knicks. Not so much, and they won't be +500 by the time the Pacers play them no matter what.

Portland is also sub-500 at this point.


BTW, Portland is a weird case. They peaked at +5 (7-2) after a very impressive stretch of 4-1 ball - W@OKC, WvsLAL, L@PHX??, WvsCLE, WvsLAC. And then it started getting rough. 2-5 (2-4 on 6 game road trip, yikes) in their next 7. They've been able to hover near .500 since then, mostly living off of home wins.

I'd say Boston was going to paste them FRI night, but after what Boston did vs Philly last night who knows.


Of course Boston might be more up and down than Portland.



Anyway, 4 games to go that fall squarely in the very tough range - @MIA, @ORL and then the @SA, @HOU pair. Maybe they aren't proving to be a legit upper tier threat, but they do appear poised to finish the season out very strong.

Unclebuck
03-08-2012, 01:37 PM
Pacers should still be able to win 4 of the 9. Must beat the Blazers at home, split with the Knicks, beat Sixers at home and get one other game.

Pacers have struggled a bit overall, but I don't fear a collapse

Hoop
03-09-2012, 06:53 PM
Pacers should still be able to win 4 of the 9. Must beat the Blazers at home, split with the Knicks, beat Sixers at home and get one other game.

Pacers have struggled a bit overall, but I don't fear a collapse
Thanks, this post actually makes me feel better.

You better be right.