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Naptown_Seth
02-22-2012, 12:57 AM
In the "Are the Pacers tied for the best record" thread from a few weeks ago we also debated the quality of Philly's wins and the ease of their early schedule. At one point I posted the following...

And when you think about the Pacers sweet April, take a look at Philly.

First off, they finish with FIVE STRAIGHT road games. Wow, that's fun. The Pacers didn't even have a 5 game road trip this season and only had 1 four game trip, while the Sixers started with a 4, have that 5 at the end of the year, and have another 4 game trip in FEB.


They get FOUR (4) home games in April, one of which is the Pacers. They get 10 road games, including Indy, Miami, Boston and Orlando.

March isn't too bad, 9 home vs 7 road, but 3 of the road games are Indy, Chicago and the Spurs.

But look at the rest of FEB for them - 6 home games vs 8 road games. Okay not too bad. Who are those home games against anyway, just curious.

Oh, nobody special, just...
Miami
Lakers
Spurs
Clippers
Dallas
OKC

:-o Seriously, that's insane. Not one bad team in the mix, and this coming off their victory at home vs Chicago.

That's their HOME games, the ones when they aren't on the 3 and 4 game road trips, the ones when they aren't playing @ATL or @MEM or @HOU. They literally play every single elite team except Denver and Indy.


Let's see just what that awesome home record looks like at the end of the month.
So let's recap how this has gone so far for them starting with their final JAN game:

*vs ORL (win by 5)
vs CHI (win by 16...but no Rose)
vs MIA (loss by 20)
*@ ATL (win by 11)
*vs LA (win by 5)

And then reality started to catch up to them, despite still riding out lots of home games, due to the continued quality of opponents.

vs SA (loss by 10)
vs LAC (loss 1)

Then they got what is close to the end of their breaks.

@ CLE (win by 15)
@ CHA (win by 9)

And then back to NBA opponents instead

@ ORL (loss by 16)
vs DAL (loss by 7)
@ MIN (loss by 1)
@ MEM (loss by 13)

And they go to Houston tomorrow night.

After the AS break ends they continue on the road in Detroit, which isn't as bad coming out of the break. But then they get to go home and play OKC.


And their March HOME games - CHI, BOS, UTH, MIA, NYK, BOS, ATL...their only "light" home games as GS and CLE.

Road games aren't horrible, but they do go to NYK, Pacers, Spurs, and Chicago for the tougher games. This could put them sub-500 for all of FEB and then also all of March, and still heading into an April that is almost nothing but road games.


The Hammer appears ready to stop hurting the Pacers and will now turn this mutha out on the Sixers W-L record. Sounds great to me. :dance:

daschysta
02-22-2012, 01:01 AM
Yeah Philly has a real fundamental problem with close games. Even compared to someone like us they have no real options to carry them late. Danny, West and Roy would each be their number one option.

They thrive on beating an opponent early and blowing people out. If teams hang around though they don't have much luck. No playoff basketball imo, we'd be lucky to have a 4-5 matchup with them i'd feel good about moving on.

Naptown_Seth
02-22-2012, 01:01 AM
But look at the rest of FEB for them - 6 home games vs 8 road games. Okay not too bad. Who are those home games against anyway, just curious.

Oh, nobody special, just...
Miami
Lakers
Spurs
Clippers
Dallas
OKC
I wanted to address this one specifically.

1-4 in their first 5 with OKC to come. Not so nice for the home record. Funny how all those double digit home wins stopped happening. ;)

HC
02-22-2012, 01:06 AM
I honestly feel like the Pacers schedule hasn't been as easy as everyone has made it out to be. It certainly hasn't been the toughest, but that stretch on the road was brutal despite who the opponents were.

TheDavisBrothers
02-22-2012, 01:06 AM
When does Chicago get its hammer? It seems like they've had a easy @$$ schedule all year...

HC
02-22-2012, 01:24 AM
When does Chicago get its hammer? It seems like they've had a easy @$$ schedule all year...

They did play 7 of their first 10 on the road, but I don't know if it even matters. I cannot stand the Bulls, but they are good. Their best player goes out, and they just keep rolling.

Eddie Gill
02-22-2012, 01:35 AM
When does Chicago get its hammer? It seems like they've had a easy @$$ schedule all year...

Chicago's schedule through the end of March:

MIL
NO
@SA
@CLE
@PHI
IND
@MIL
ORL
UTA
NYK
MIA
POR
PHI
@ORL
@TOR
TOR
DEN
@ATL
DET

Of those games Orlando, Utah, New York, Miami, Portland, Philly, and @Orlando is a pretty stretch.

The start of April could also be pretty rough:

@OKC
HOU
BOS
@NYK
NYK
MIA

AusPACER
02-22-2012, 01:42 AM
I think we need to worry about beating out Orlando. Who knows what will happen with Dwigjt but Philly will get home court as they are going to win their division unless something ridiculous happens. If Chicago and Miami take care of business (already streaks ahead) the final spot will be out of us, Orlando and Atlanta. Although it could matter if we can manage to have the better record than the sixers and go 3rd instead of 4th. But still, we still need to beat out the other 2 or we will be 5th regardless.

SYDNEY MILLER AUSTRALIA31
02-22-2012, 01:45 AM
Yeah Philly has a real fundamental problem with close games. Even compared to someone like us they have no real options to carry them late. Danny, West and Roy would each be their number one option.

They thrive on beating an opponent early and blowing people out. If teams hang around though they don't have much luck. No playoff basketball imo, we'd be lucky to have a 4-5 matchup with them i'd feel good about moving on.

That's y I like these pacers, they grind out wins. A win is a win, they might do it the hard way but at the end of the day it makes them stronger in those situations

TheDavisBrothers
02-22-2012, 01:47 AM
I think we need to worry about beating out Orlando. Who knows what will happen with Dwigjt but Philly will get home court as they are going to win their division unless something ridiculous happens. If Chicago and Miami take care of business (already streaks ahead) the final spot will be out of us, Orlando and Atlanta. Although it could matter if we can manage to have the better record than the sixers and go 3rd instead of 4th. But still, we still need to beat out the other 2 or we will be 5th regardless.

Division winners don't automatically get home court advantage

wintermute
02-22-2012, 07:00 AM
Division winners don't automatically get home court advantage

Yup, division winners automatically get a top 4 seed, but not necessarily home court. Home court goes to the team with the better record in any matchup.

http://www.nba.com/features/seedingprimer07.html

Ownagedood
02-22-2012, 11:20 AM
This is a team we could possibly end up playing in the playoffs.. Two very solid up and coming teams. Play tough defense and are good rebounders. I respect them, but luckily, we are still a step ahead of them in terms of talent.

It's all about matchups.

DC = Jrue
PG > Meeks
Danny > Iggy
West = Brand
Hibbert > Hawes

Hill > Lou williams or Evan Turner

Kobe Jones < Young

Hans/Foster > Their backup bigs

I would love to face these guys, we are a lot alike. We are the slightly better team though.

Naptown_Seth
02-22-2012, 11:34 AM
My view is slightly different...

DC < Jrue
PG >> Meeks
Danny < Iggy
West > Brand
Hibbert > Hawes

Jrue and Iggy are playing better, but not better enough to overcome the pretty strong advantage we have a defensive SG, defensive C and scoring PF. Brand at one point was West like, and West often has low interest in defense, but right now West is 100% back to all-star level scoring ability out of the post.

He's stepping through double teams and killing fades with equal ease. He gives back a lot of what he gets, but not all of it and not to the same "this demands attention" extent. On offense he's becoming unstoppable at times, while on defense he's just slightly hurting so that it can be overcome with other guys helping out.

George helping West with Brand = Pacers win (stop or TO)

Meeks helping Brand out with West = Pacers win (70% scoring rate from West, not including plays coming off of this if he passes)

Lance George
02-22-2012, 12:45 PM
There's no question that D.C. is having a superior season to Holiday. He's passing the ball more, turning it over less, rebounding better, and he's been far more efficient a scorer than Holiday.

The obvious cop-out for the D.C. haters will be that he's terrible on defense, whereas Holiday is excellent.

Unfortunately for those people, the numbers (which are far more reliable than the lame, "wach da gamez!!1!" pseudo-argument) from 82games.com tell a different story: Holiday (http://www.82games.com/1112/11PHI1.HTM#bypos) | Collison (http://www.82games.com/1112/11IND1.HTM#bypos)

Yes, according to the data, D.C. has even been better than Holiday on defense this season.

Anyway, I'd break it down like this:

Collison > Holiday (see above)

George > Meeks (George has been somewhat disappointing, but Meeks is one-dimensional)

Granger < Iguodala (Danny's bread-and-butter, scoring, has been underwhelming, whereas Iggy remains Mr. All-Around Game)

West = Brand (Both washed-up ex-All-Stars. West is a little more well-rounded, while Brand is superior at the typical PF role [rebounding and blocking shots])

Hibbert > Hawes (Closer than people realize, as Hawes has been excellent on offense and the glass, but his defensive numbers are appalling (http://www.82games.com/1112/11PHI15.HTM#bypos), whereas Roy's are quite good (http://www.82games.com/1112/11IND13.HTM#bypos).)

Starters-wise, I think we're clearly better. Where Philly kills us is with their bench.

I like George Hill as much as the next guy, but Lou Williams has been outstanding. If it weren't for James Harden, he'd probably be the front-runner for 6th Man of the Year. He leads Philly in scoring despite being just sixth in minutes (26.3), and is third in assists. He also has a 3.5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and gets to the line a ton.

Also, Thad Young continues to be one of the best backups and most underrated players in the league. He's been far better than his Pacers counterpart, Tyler Hansbrough.

Sparhawk
02-22-2012, 12:45 PM
My view is slightly different...

DC < Jrue
PG >> Meeks
Danny < Iggy
West > Brand
Hibbert > Hawes

Jrue and Iggy are playing better, but not better enough to overcome the pretty strong advantage we have a defensive SG, defensive C and scoring PF. Brand at one point was West like, and West often has low interest in defense, but right now West is 100% back to all-star level scoring ability out of the post.



I agree with your assessment. And I'd much rather have Jrue than DC.

Larry Staverman
02-22-2012, 02:16 PM
West = Brand (Both washed-up ex-All-Stars. West is a little more well-rounded, while Brand is superior at the typical PF role [rebounding and blocking shots])

While Brand is clearly not close to what he was in his prime saying that David West is washed up is total B.S. West is still one of the better power forwards in the NBA. Not sure what you have been watching.

Nuntius
02-22-2012, 04:50 PM
My view is the following:

DC = Jrue (DC could probably be better but I guess that Jrue is in a funk so they will even out eventually)

George > Meeks

Granger = Iguodala (similar to DC = Jrue)

West > Brand

Hibbert > Hawes (that said, Hawes has been impressive this year)

Also, I agree that their bench is better in overall. Lou Williams and Evan Turner. Lou Williams is averaging 21.4 PPG and 5.0 APG per 36. Evan Turner is averaging 12.6 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 4.1 APG per 36 (and he is an effing guard).

Thaddeus Young is a good player but his numbers per 36 are close to Tyler so we have a tie here. Nikola Vucevic actually has better numbers per 36 (he could be a double-double machine)

Anyway, their bench may be better talent-wise but our bench has some really nice defensive chemistry. We just lack the scoring punch off the bench that they have. Of course, GH3 was injured for a long time.

I'd feel a good with a match up with them. We are both good and young teams :)

Naptown_Seth
03-01-2012, 10:41 PM
Excuse me while I continue to revel in the misfortunes of others. :)

I wanted to address this one specifically.

1-4 in their first 5 with OKC to come. Not so nice for the home record. Funny how all those double digit home wins stopped happening. ;)
So last night made it officially 1-5 in those tough HOME games, as they lost to OKC.

Funny how drastically different their home record and overall record looks now that the schedule has started to balance out for them. With the road trip catching up to them as well they are 3-8 in their last 11. The 3 wins were road games vs CLE, DET, and CHA. They haven't won a home game since Feb 6th vs the Lakers. They went 2-5 at home for the month of FEB.

March for them could easily be another below .500 month at home, with 3-6 a realistic possibility (depending on the turn around of the Knicks and Boston; real or illusion). March is actually a "light" road month with more home games for them, but 3-4 on the road seems likely with trips to CHI, IND, NYK and SA.

April has some easier road opponents, but only 4 home games compared to 10 road games. They have a 4 games in 5 nights section with the only home game being ORL to start it off. The last 2 are NJ and TOR but by then it's the end of non-stop travel for a week.

They have a back to back to back in April that is road-home-road and the home game is hosting the Pacers (woo-hoo). And then they get the honor of not playing another home game after that.

That's right, with 5 games remaining after that the Sixers end their home portion of the season on the 17th, some 9-10 days before the end of the season. They end with 4 road games in 6 nights.


Feel the burn chumps. :dance:
Maybe it shouldn't make me happy but it does. :happydanc

Anthem
03-01-2012, 10:45 PM
Great work.

Any thoughts on New York and Orlando?

Naptown_Seth
03-01-2012, 10:50 PM
Some good points and opinions on the Pacers vs Sixers thing, even where I don't agree exactly. I think in general we all feel like the Pacers starters is a win and the Sixers bench is a win.

Luckily in the playoffs it's typically starters-heavy which favors Indy.

May not matter if Boston and NY catch them, which at 3 games out is very possible. If the Sixers live up to the March/April schedule that would cut into their 6 games over .500 mark by 3 or 4 games at least, leaving them around .500. NY and Boston could match that, especially since they play them so much in the next 2 months (and Indy).

That would leave them at 8th and done for the year basically.


As others have said, the key is to hold off Orlando and hold a possible 3 seed.

Kid Minneapolis
03-01-2012, 10:58 PM
Hey I called this! ;) http://www.pacersdigest.com/showthread.php?p=1364320#post1364320

Naptown_Seth
03-01-2012, 11:00 PM
Great work.

Any thoughts on New York and Orlando?
Per the end of my last post I need to go pull it and look, primarily the Magic.

The Knicks can catch Philly, but the Pacers March/April is basically the flip of the Sixers. The Pacers started out with a lot of what Philly is ending with.

Quick look at the Magic shows 2 3 game road trips still, but not much else. Their schedule is not quite Pacers home friendly, but fairly reasonable and balanced. They have their share of road tough games like Miami and the Spurs, but they also have several home games against some of their tougher competition (like the Sixers or tonight's Thunder game which they are winning by 10 right now).

They have an @CHI, IND, MIA, @SA stretch, but they get rest in there with 2 days off after CHI and a day off between IND and MIA games. Most of their schedule looks like that - easy teams just when they need it or days off during tougher stretches.

It really looks like a 2 team race to see who gets that 3rd slot and who drops to 5. Of course 5 will play the weaker division winner, NY, BOS or PHI and will have home court if they have the better record, which will be true if you are facing 3rd or 5th as an outcome with ORL.

home court vs the 6th seed - ATL, NY, BOS, PHI
or
home court vs the 4th seed - NY, BOS, PHI

It's not really as bad as I thought when I first started typing this. The problem is round 2 where 5 = MIA and 3 = CHI. Both are tough but I'd rather see the Pacers catch CHI due to matchups and last year's series.

Roaming Gnome
03-01-2012, 11:07 PM
For a minute there, I thought this dude was coming to Philly... :D
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSXLCFnnBgNKnn2i3hP4F1_YLu-UPD-tc71egd6Yla0pc1cblT5f8ETvHnOmQ

The Sleeze
03-01-2012, 11:10 PM
....The problem is round 2 where 5 = MIA and 3 = CHI. Both are tough but I'd rather see the Pacers catch CHI due to matchups and last year's series.

I've said this in another thread, but if we can't get the 3 seed than we are better off being the 6 seed. I would rather play the Bulls in the second round than be the 4 or 5 and get home court advantage in the first only to lose to Miami in the second round.

Naptown_Seth
03-01-2012, 11:58 PM
For a minute there, I thought this dude was coming to Philly... :D
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSXLCFnnBgNKnn2i3hP4F1_YLu-UPD-tc71egd6Yla0pc1cblT5f8ETvHnOmQ

Come on man, we already did all this in the other thread. ;)



Anyway, w00t THUNDER, great come back on the Magic. The Pacers thank you for bringing some 4th quarter hammer to the Magic.

Nuntius
03-02-2012, 04:35 AM
Interesting fact about winning percentage in close games:

The Pacers are 6th in the league with a winning percentage of 70%. The Sixers are tied with the Bobcats at the 28th spot by winning only 25% of their close games.

Here's the top 10:

1) Houston Rockets 85.7%

2) Miami Heat 80%

3) Atlanta Hawks 77.8%

4) Los Angeles Lakers 76.9%

5) Oklahoma City Thunder 75%

6) Indiana Pacers 70%

T7) Los Angeles Clippers 63.6%

T7) San Antonio Spurs 63.6%

9) Memphis Grizzlies 58.3%

10) Chicago Bulls 57.1%

Here's the bottom 5:

T25) Milwaukee Bucks 33.3%

T25) Toronto Raptors 33.3%

T25) Detroit Pistons 33.3%

T28) Philadelphia 76ers 25%

T28) Charlotte Bobcats 25%

30) Portland Trail Blazers 16.7%

Also, let's take a look at the home-away part of this statistic category.

Home Games top 10:

T1) Miami Heat 100%

T1) Oklahoma City Thunder 100%

T1) Sacramento Kings 100%

4) Houston Rockets 85.7%

5) Atlanta Hawks 75%

T6) Chicago Bulls 66.7%

T6) Los Angeles Lakers 66.7%

8) Dallas Mavericks 60%

9) Memphis Grizzlies 57.1%

T10) Denver Nuggets, San Antonio Spurs, Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, Los Angeles Clippers 50%

Home Games bottom 5:

T24) New Jersey Nets, Portland Trail Blazers 25%

26) Phoenix Suns 20%

T27) New Orleans Hornets, Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors 0%

In case, you're wondering the Philadelphia 76ers are tied for the 18th spot with the Boston Celtics with 40%.

So, how do we jump to 70% and they fall to 25% if our difference is not that big in home games. That's right. Away games.

Away Games top 5:

1) Phoenix Suns 100%

2) Los Angeles Lakers 85.7%

3) Indiana Pacers 83.3%

4) Atlanta Hawks 80%

T5) Miami Heat 75%

T5) New York Knicks 75%

Away Games bottom 5:

25) Milwaukee Bucks 25%

26) Sacramento Kings 20%

27) Portland Trail Blazers 12.5%

T28) Philadelphia 76ers 0%

T28) Charlotte Bobcats 0%

T28) Detroit Pistons 0%

I don't think I can make it any clearer. Only the Blazers are worse in closing out games than Philly.

Here's the link -> http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/win-pct-close-games

wintermute
03-02-2012, 05:00 AM
It's amazing. I remember when the Pacers used to be horrible in close games.

The only caveat with stats of this nature is sample size. How many close games are we talking about? I looked at that link but couldn't see any raw numbers.

rexnom
03-02-2012, 05:04 AM
It's amazing. I remember when the Pacers used to be horrible in close games.

The only caveat with stats of this nature is sample size. How many close games are we talking about? I looked at that link but couldn't see any raw numbers.
Exactly, we've self-selected into a bunch of (unnecessary) close games with inferior ball clubs. Philly has routinely beaten up on those teams.

Again, it's worth emphasizing how well point differential tracks to success, for a lot of important substantive reasons.

The good news is that we are really hitting our stride and blowing opponents out (Hornets game notwithstanding) as we should be doing. This bodes well for a variety of reasons.

Nuntius
03-02-2012, 06:29 AM
You make a pretty valid point, wintermute.

From what I know a game is considered close when you win (or lose) by 5 or less. Am I right?

Let's see those games and compare them:

Indiana's close games:

W 90 - 85 @ Toronto

W 95 - 90 @ Toronto (again)

L 88 - 92 @ Sacramento

W 94 - 91 @ Golden State

W 98 - 96 @ Los Angeles (Lakers)

W 95 - 90 @ Chicago

L 85 - 81 vs Orlando

W 99 - 104 vs Utah

L 113 - 109 vs Denver

W 88 - 93 vs New Jersey

So, that's it. We're 5-1 away and 2-2 at home. I agree that the Toronto, Sacramento and New Jersey games shouldn't be close since we had our chance to seal them but nobody said we're perfect. We're on a good track, though.

Another nice fact is that we are 2-0 in our OT games. In fact, we won both of them with more than 5 points (91 - 98 vs the Cavs and 108 - 117 vs the Hornets).

Also, according to ESPN we're 2-0 in games decided by 3 points or less (Warriors and Lakers games).

On the other hand, Philadelphia is 0-2 in their OT games and 0-3 in games decided by 3 points or less.

But let's take a look at their close games, shall we?

L 103 - 107 @ Portland

L 99 - 102 @ Utah

L 108 - 104 vs Denver

W 69 - 74 vs Orlando

W 90 - 95 vs Los Angeles (Lakers)

L 78 - 77 vs Los Angeles (Clippers)

L 91 - 92 @ Minnesota

L 92 - 88 vs Oklahoma City

So, they are 0-3 away and 2-3 at home.

Ultimately, we have had 10 games that were decided by 5 or less points. In those games, we're 7-3. Philadelphia have had 8 games were decided by 5 or less points. In those game they're 2-6.

So, the sample size between the two teams is not really different. 10 games to 8 is not such a big difference.

The argument that can be made in favor of Philadelphia here is that their close games were against teams with better records than Toronto, Sacramento, Golden State and New Jersey. That's a valid argument since we indeed have the problem of playing down to the competition some times.

However, this does not change the fact that Philadelphia has shown little ability to close out games against good competition. Against good competition we're 3-2 (Lakers, Bulls, Orlando, Denver and Utah) so we're above average in this regard as well.

Also, the fact that Philadelphia were one of the two teams that Portland managed to win in a close situation (the other one being GS as they didn't even manage to attempt a shot with 6 seconds remaining) is quite disturbing.

So, this list implies two things about Philly:

1) They are able to run lesser competition out of the building.

2) They are not good in winning close games against good competition.

And here's the important question now.

What are you going to face in the playoffs? Lopsided games against lesser competition or close games against good competition?

The answer is the second, of course. Philly can improve its closing ability during the rest of the season and, of course, the playoffs are a whole different thing than the regular season but as it is now those statistics look quite grim for Philly despite their high point differential in wins.

Which is one of the reasons that I don't particularly care for point differential. Not that I would have a problem with a few more emphatic wins, though ;)

CableKC
03-02-2012, 01:51 PM
As others have said, the key is to hold off Orlando and hold a possible 3 seed.
So, I'm guessing that we will be seeing a new "The Hammer comes to the Magic" thread soon? ;)

I can only hope that the Magic trade Dwight...even if it's getting back Bynum as a Center...I don't see how their strategy to heave up a 3pt shot every time can hold up with Bynum or Brook Lopez running the Center spot.

PaceBalls
03-02-2012, 02:00 PM
So, I'm guessing that we will be seeing a new "The Hammer comes to the Magic" thread soon? ;)


Or, "The Hammer Comes to the Pacers (again)"

After the New Orleans game, we have a brutal 2.5 weeks coming up. We could easily have another 5 game losing streak.

CableKC
03-02-2012, 02:12 PM
Or, "The Hammer Comes to the Pacers (again)"

After the New Orleans game, we have a brutal 2.5 weeks coming up. We could easily have another 5 game losing streak.
I'm okay with 5 brutal games....dems the breaks....as long as the other Teams have a longer and harder schedule << insert obligatory "That's what she said" joke here >>

Cubs231721
03-02-2012, 02:35 PM
Or, "The Hammer Comes to the Pacers (again)"

After the New Orleans game, we have a brutal 2.5 weeks coming up. We could easily have another 5 game losing streak.

Thankfully it's not just the Pacers going through this brutal stretch. It's most of the East. Here are some segments of the East schedules over the next few weeks:

Miami plays 8 games between March 4th and March 18th. 7 of them are against teams .500 or better with 4 at home and 4 on the road.

Chicago plays 10 games between March 4th and March 19th. 8 of them are against teams .500 or better with 7 at home and 3 on the road.

The Pacers play 9 games between March 5th and March 20th. All 9 are against teams .500 and better with 5 at home and 4 on the road.

Philly plays 12 games between March 4th and March 25th. 9 of them are against teams .500 or better with 6 at home and 6 on the road.

Orlando plays 7 games between March 8th and March 19th. 6 of them are against teams .500 or better (2 against Miami, 2 against Chicago, San Antonio, Indiana) with 4 at home and 3 on the road.

Atlanta has 7 games between March 3rd and March 14th. 5 are against teams .500 or better with only 1 at home and 6 on the road.

Boston has 6 games between March 4th and March 12th. All 6 are against teams .500 or better with 3 at home and 3 on the road.

New York has 9 games between March 4th and March 17th. 8 are against teams .500 or better with 3 at home and 6 on the road.

So the Pacers might have the worst schedule of all the East for those couple of weeks, but pretty much none of the teams have it easy. We should have a much better idea of the East playoff picture 2-3 weeks from now.

TheDon
03-02-2012, 02:44 PM
I'm hoping during the 4 game stretch starting with the bulls game that we're able to at least go .500 during that stretch and we'd still be sitting pretty with the 3rd seed. Hopefully one of those wins coming against Orlando, I really consider that game a must win.

Naptown_Seth
04-05-2012, 02:54 PM
Or, "The Hammer Comes to the Pacers (again)"

After the New Orleans game, we have a brutal 2.5 weeks coming up. We could easily have another 5 game losing streak.
Of course I addressed this elsewhere as it was total BS. It was 4 tough games for sure, but that was the end of it and the timing wasn't even that bad. They didn't have to play in Miami till SAT after the TUE night home game vs Atlanta (which they should have won).

Wells and some others ran with the FALSE idea that Portland and Philly don't stink on the road or that the Clips weren't in a compromising spot with travel. In fact 3 of the last 5 losses fall almost into the inexcusable range, that's how light the schedule has been.



Anyway, I think the schedule has spoken pretty clearly regarding the quality of the Sixers early wins by big margins. They just added a HOME loss to Toronto by 21 to go with a road loss to Washington last week by 21 as well.

How's that working for their big point differential? Not too good.


Luckily for them the get to host Orlando and then go on a 3 game road trip. This will be 4 games in 5 nights.

Philly has 3 home games left - ORL, IND and NJ. The NJ home game for them falls on Friday the 13th. :-o

Their last home game is the Pacers. Hopefully it's a nice sendoff to the road. They better start watching Milwaukee scores at this rate.

naptownmenace
04-05-2012, 04:03 PM
I looked at the lowlights for the Philly v. Toronto game last night I could hear Tom Petty's "Free Falling" playing in my mind.

The only downside to Philly becoming a bad team is that the Celtics and Hawks seem to be recovering some of their swagger so the battle for the #3 seed is still very much alive.

daschysta
04-05-2012, 04:21 PM
Of course I addressed this elsewhere as it was total BS. It was 4 tough games for sure, but that was the end of it and the timing wasn't even that bad. They didn't have to play in Miami till SAT after the TUE night home game vs Atlanta (which they should have won).

Wells and some others ran with the FALSE idea that Portland and Philly don't stink on the road or that the Clips weren't in a compromising spot with travel. In fact 3 of the last 5 losses fall almost into the inexcusable range, that's how light the schedule has been.



Anyway, I think the schedule has spoken pretty clearly regarding the quality of the Sixers early wins by big margins. They just added a HOME loss to Toronto by 21 to go with a road loss to Washington last week by 21 as well.

How's that working for their big point differential? Not too good.


Luckily for them the get to host Orlando and then go on a 3 game road trip. This will be 4 games in 5 nights.

Philly has 3 home games left - ORL, IND and NJ. The NJ home game for them falls on Friday the 13th. :-o

Their last home game is the Pacers. Hopefully it's a nice sendoff to the road. They better start watching Milwaukee scores at this rate.

Yeah, Philly is in serious risk of not even making the playoffs at this rate. Abominable offense, noone to get a basket whent hey need it but streaky lou, Collins using Turner incorrectly and marginalizing him, arguable regression by Jrue Holiday... A mess. They were never as good as us, and they were always constructed awfully for the playoffs. Still 5th in Hollingers rankings thoguh!!! Goes to show you that his whole system weighs margin of victories far too heavily.

picasso
04-05-2012, 05:32 PM
So how good have the Pacers been? With DC having less than stellar games the team
has carries us to victory. Really tells us a lot our team. When DC has played above average we are a hard team to beat. When he's bad we have to pull a dub from our *** and as have done it many times. I just hope DC plays his best ball during the playoffs like last year before he rolled his ankle. He tries and tries but some times his best isn't good enough. Its a shame you because I like DC, ever since his bruin days. Just like how he is now he was in UCLA. Always watching his back and having some WTF moments.

I'm surprised by Jrue though. DC is best at attacking the rim and playing 120 MPH.
He's not a slow the tempo type PG. Last nights game was a treat.

TOP
04-05-2012, 05:44 PM
They did play 7 of their first 10 on the road, but I don't know if it even matters. I cannot stand the Bulls, but they are good. Their best player goes out, and they just keep rolling.

I believe Rose has been out the past 10 games and they are 6-4.

Naptown_Seth
04-05-2012, 11:28 PM
So, I'm guessing that we will be seeing a new "The Hammer comes to the Magic" thread soon? ;)

I can only hope that the Magic trade Dwight...even if it's getting back Bynum as a Center...I don't see how their strategy to heave up a 3pt shot every time can hold up with Bynum or Brook Lopez running the Center spot.
Obviously you said this pre-trade deadline, but holy smokes. Wasn't it just a week ago that we feared the Pacers falling to 6th and assumed the Magic were locked into 3rd.

Looks like you were prescient on this one.

They haven't had a quality win since beating MIA on March 13. Since then they've gone 4-8.

Wins
NJ, PHX, CLE, @TOR

Losses
@SAS, @MIA, CHI, @NYK, DAL, DEN, @DET, NYK

And really the hammer didn't come to Orlando. That's several home losses and a few losses to poor teams. DEN and DAL are solid, but those games were at home. And it really hasn't been about back to backs or road trips.

Naptown_Seth
04-07-2012, 11:00 PM
Movable object meets resistible force in a battle to see who can underperform the other.

Magic vs Sixers with the Sixers falling closer to all the way out.

They are 1.5 games ahead of the Bucks. 2 in the loss column. The Bucks are at .500 right now, the Sixers are 3 games over .500.

Philly goes to Millwaukee on the 25th, their 4th straight road game at that point. MIL could easily be beating them in that game to take the 8th spot from them.

They now have 2 home games left after losing to ORL, and 9 road games. Again that's 2 home, 9 road.




I don't quite now why I'm enjoying this so much. I guess it's all the pub and credit they were getting when the Pacers were playing just as well with a much tougher schedule.

Anthem
04-07-2012, 11:24 PM
They now have 2 home games left after losing to ORL, and 9 road games. Again that's 2 home, 9 road.
Holy cow. Talk about a hammer.

wintermute
04-08-2012, 07:17 AM
I don't quite now why I'm enjoying this so much. I guess it's all the pub and credit they were getting when the Pacers were playing just as well with a much tougher schedule.

Not me - there goes our chance for a favorable 4 seed vs 5 seed matchup. I don't like the thought of facing Orlando, Atlanta, or a resurgent Boston nearly as much. Yeah, Orlando is facing a mini crisis, but Howard is still such a dominant factor.

Hoop
04-09-2012, 01:29 AM
Philly is really dead now. Today vs Boston was their biggest game of the season so far and they laid a huge egg.

They were 2 games behind Boston for the division coming into today's game. If they had won, they would have moved to within 1 game and still had a decent shot at the division. Now they are 3 back and just about out of it.

I wouldn't be surprised if they completely dropped out of the playoffs now. With NY's win over Chicago today they just dropped to 8th and are only a game ahead of the Bucks.

Roaming Gnome
04-09-2012, 01:34 AM
6'ers... Meet the new driver of your team bus!

http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSXLCFnnBgNKnn2i3hP4F1_YLu-UPD-tc71egd6Yla0pc1cblT5f8ETvHnOmQ

Hell, the Hammer came to Philly and took up residence!

Peck
04-09-2012, 02:33 AM
I think we all suspected that they were not as good as their early season record indicated but I don't think anybody thought that they were this bad.

From 4th to out of the playoffs in a month or so (looking like it anyway). Is this the worse fall (minus injury to key player) that any of you can remember? I'm trying to think of another recent team that has done this & I just can't.

Sollozzo
04-09-2012, 07:16 AM
I think the Bucks were the 4 seed at the midway point in 02 before going on a free fall collapse that left them out of the playoffs.

Hicks
04-09-2012, 09:49 AM
The 2003 Pacers come to mind.

Trader Joe
04-09-2012, 10:35 AM
Honestly guys, any time your leading scorer is averaging 16 PPG and he is coming off the BENCH, you probably are not a very good basketball team. The writing has been on the wall for this for some time, it's why I always found it humorous when anyone compared us to Philly as a "mirror". Yes, they are our mirror if that mirror is cracked in multiple places and really dusty. The fact that Igoudala was an all star this year was a bloody joke. 12 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists is an all star player now? Iggy has refused to rise to the moment for this team and they continually look to Lou Williams to come off the bench and give them any scoring. Jrue Holiday is just as inconsistent as DC maybe even more. Elton Brand has nothing left in the the tank. They start Jodie Freaking Meeks at shooting guard for most of the season. They are just not a great basketball team. They desperately need a good scorer in their starting lineup and Lou Williams is such a liability everywhere else but scoring they can't put him in.

Naptown_Seth
04-09-2012, 05:27 PM
They did lose Hawes for a time to be fair.

Of course the Pacers lost Hill, but that's not the same as losing Roy.


And I fall into the "mirror image" camp, they do have a similar roster structure. Their issues are the level of competition and less home games, combined with declines after the AS break of Hawes and Turner. The Hawes injury and/or a slump independent of that injury really killed them, much like Roy's mini-slump was hurting the Pacers.

I agree that while Iggy was ahead of Danny to start the year due to Danny's shooting slump, Danny has been far more active in the team's success. He probably was all along but with the scoring woes going away he's clearly more able to lead the Pacers offense than Iggy is able to do with Philly.

Lou Williams also dropped off a little bit.

Philly also lacks bigs off the bench which is hurting them.


But honestly, down the line it's not like a massive drop in production. It really does look more like the schedule than anything. They were always a shadow of the Pacers more than a mirror. But it's really close at several spots.

Some per36 on the year...

Brand 13.5 - 9.1 - 2.1 - 49.1 eFG% - 1.3 stl - 1.8 blk
West 14.9 - 8.0 - 2.7 - 48.0 eFG% - 0.9 stl - 0.8 blk

Iggy 12.2 - 6.2 - 5.6 - 50.2 eFG% - 1.8 stl - 0.5 blk
Granger 20.1 - 5.2 - 1.8 - 47.7 eFG% - 1.2 stl - 0.8 blk

Hawes 13.1 - 10.7 - 3.7 - 50.7 eFG% - 0.6 stl - 1.8 blk
Roy 15.6 - 10.6 - 2.0 - 49.7 eFG% - 0.6 stl - 2.4 blk

Looking at those 3 I'd say that Philly had been slightly better. Of course Philly also loaded up numbers early on against bad teams. But apart from the Hawes injury it's pretty tough to distinguish these two teams by the numbers.

Nuntius
04-09-2012, 05:45 PM
The Sixers play a different style of basketball than us. They move the ball, find open shooters and take the first good look available. They don't work the ball inside, draw fouls or foul a lot. They play it safe.

They play clean defense and run the floor well. It's a different philosophy.

Anthem
04-09-2012, 05:54 PM
But honestly, down the line it's not like a massive drop in production. It really does look more like the schedule than anything. They were always a shadow of the Pacers more than a mirror. But it's really close at several spots.
Explain, please. The first half of the season, we put up similar numbers despite a significantly harder schedule. By the end of the season, the schedules should all even out. Our easy end-of-season schedule is because we had it hard early. Their hard schedule is because they already got their easy games.

By this point in the season, "Team X had an easier schedule" is a much less effective excuse.

Naptown_Seth
04-09-2012, 10:25 PM
Well my post was a little confused because I went to find evidence of the decline, but it's a little hard to see how statistically they are doing worse, at least individually.

I mean I was always saying the schedule would catch up to them, but by their individual stats it's pretty hard to see this. Wouldn't facing tougher teams or tougher games (more road games) that resulted in losses mean that players were shooting a little worse, turning it over more, getting less steals or blocks?

But the main guys didn't really fall off much. So it's like what they were doing in basic stats was enough to win the easy games but not enough to win the tough games, but it was enough to put up similar stats.


I think you misunderstood me as well. I'm saying that their fall now is due to schedule. It 100% is. I just can't find the production fall off to go with it outside of the Hawes injury and loss of production there on his return.


I suspect that PPG allowed or DEF FG% has gotten worse perhaps.



Just to clarify one more time, if you were winning 100-90 with 5 guys scoring 20 each, and then you start losing 90-100 you wouldn't still have all 5 guys scoring 20. Something has to give.

We see it in the W-L, but what exactly has changed in the box score output the last month? It has to be something.

Naptown_Seth
04-09-2012, 10:28 PM
Let me add that in reviewing my page 2 post I see that I mentioned the drops for Turner and Hawes but don't actually show the pre-post AS split (easy to find at places like basketball-reference). From that I didn't really see Brand or Iggy or Jrue doing worse since the AS break. They all look incredibly balanced pre-post.

Anthem
04-09-2012, 11:52 PM
Well my post was a little confused because I went to find evidence of the decline, but it's a little hard to see how statistically they are doing worse, at least individually.

I mean I was always saying the schedule would catch up to them, but by their individual stats it's pretty hard to see this. Wouldn't facing tougher teams or tougher games (more road games) that resulted in losses mean that players were shooting a little worse, turning it over more, getting less steals or blocks?

But the main guys didn't really fall off much.
Dude, where are you going with this? Nobody's claiming that Philly's main guys would play worse. The idea is that their opponents would get better.

Same guys putting up the same stats, but that league-leading scoring discrepancy went negative. Why? They were playing against teams who put up more points.

ChicagoPacer
04-10-2012, 12:38 AM
^ Yeah, but there's two ways for their opponents to put up more points. 1) The offenses of more recent teams the sixers have played are better, or 2) the defenses of the more recent teams the sixers have played are better, which holds PHI's scoring/offensive production down. It's a bit of both.

Sixers on O...first 28 games vs. last 28 games: drops from 107.4 pts per 100 possessions to 99.4 pts per 100 (-8.0)
Sixers on D: giving up 2.5 pts /100 more (97.2 up to 99.7).

So it's not so much that their opponents are putting that many more points up. It's that their opponents are better defenders that are holding the Sixers down...on the team level at least. Maybe the stars are still playing at the same level, or maybe the differences are pretty small (an extra turnover here, a drop in FG% of 2% there).

Naptown_Seth
04-12-2012, 09:28 PM
Dude, where are you going with this? Nobody's claiming that Philly's main guys would play worse. The idea is that their opponents would get better.

Same guys putting up the same stats, but that league-leading scoring discrepancy went negative. Why? They were playing against teams who put up more points.
Because if you bring the same TALENT against a tougher opponent who will end up with more points than you at the end of the night then it's virtually impossible to maintain the same stats.

You can't score 100 points if you just lost 90-100, and you can't lose 90-100 if you are scoring 100. If you lost instead of won then something you did wasn't as good. I get that the reason why is the level of competition, I mean I started this thread to say just that, but where is the resulting evidence of what's happened to them.

Someone has to be doing worse when they started playing these tougher games, but for the life of me I can't really identify where they started getting beat.

You play TOR and win by 20. You do this because their defense sucks and let's you shoot 54% as a team. This means individuals are shooting 45-60% on the night.

Then you play Boston and lose by 15. You do this because they bring the defense and you shoot 38% as a team. This means individuals are shooting 35-44% on the night.

That should show up in the pre-post AS stats for these guys. Losing games means worse scoring, less steals, blocks, rebounds, more TOs, more fouls, worse FG% against....something. Something suffers because you are playing a better team who reduces your ability to do as much as well as you were before.


But for the most part these guys look like nothing changed in their lines. They just stopped winning without doing much of anything worse.

Obviously something has slipped, or they are padding stats enough in the fewer wins to compensate for the extra losses.



And their PTS DIFF is just stupid. I can't believe it was so high that they've been able to maintain a pretty high ranking in it with all the losses and some of them by big margins.

Sorry, but I'm a stat geek and it fascinates me. By the numbers only you'd swear that Philly had the same W-L pre and post AS break. I guess by Madden-padding on the dogs they've been able to compensate.

aamcguy
04-13-2012, 12:48 PM
And their PTS DIFF is just stupid. I can't believe it was so high that they've been able to maintain a pretty high ranking in it with all the losses and some of them by big margins.

Sorry, but I'm a stat geek and it fascinates me. By the numbers only you'd swear that Philly had the same W-L pre and post AS break. I guess by Madden-padding on the dogs they've been able to compensate.


Lou Williams, Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes.

Spencer Hawes actually had better numbers than Hibbert when we met, pretty much across the board, and he had something like 4 APG. Once he got injured and returned, he hasn't played nearly as well. In fact, they have benched him.

Evan Turner was playing well early in the year, coming off the bench. Toward the middle of the season he started stinking it up. They started him, he exploded for a few games, then started playing worse than he has had all year. Really just passive. 76ers board complained nobody was getting him the ball, but he wasn't doing anything when he didn't have the ball to get open. He has since been benched, coinciding with their 2 game winning streak.

Lou Williams is a bit like Barbosa, except that he never EVER says no to a shot. His scoring has gradually dipped, but his bad shot selection has seemed even worse for the last half of the year or so because in the first half...he was so incredibly hot he was making so many ridiculous shots.


I don't know if stats can really back that up, completely, other than a long look at game log records, but a lot of reason for their success was the play of those three. And they just haven't brought it very much lately.

Naptown_Seth
04-13-2012, 11:32 PM
Well let's get back to the main point which is the EPIC FAIL that is the Philly vs Hammer matchup.

I mean a home game vs New Jersey with a day rest is your respite from all the hard games. You have 2 home games left and 6 road games, and one of the home games is vs the Pacers on a back to back coming back from Orlando. And you blow that NJ game?!?

It's embarrassing. They now have one home game left all year, hosting the Pacers. GFL with that Philly, enjoy your trip to Orlando and then apparently every NBA city that can be squeezed into 5 games to finish the season.

Naptown_Seth
04-16-2012, 10:49 PM
Your attention please:

For Tuesday night's performance the role of "The Hammer" will be played by the Indiana Pacers.

We are sorry for the inconvenience.







But not really. Come on Bucks, you've got to win them all but THR.

Naptown_Seth
04-17-2012, 10:39 PM
Ow, stop doing that, why are you hitting me.

Please David, don't hurt 'em. That mutha was officially turned out.




The good news for Philly is they are now free from that hostile home crowd for the rest of the year. ;)
The bad news is the Hammer might want another piece of them SAT night.






Let's see just what that awesome home record looks like at the end of the month. (FEB)
The Sixers DID NOT WIN ANY of their 4 home games in April - TOR, ORL, NJ, IND

6-3 in March

2-5 in FEB

So for the final 3 months of the season the Sixers were 8-12 AT HOME. This came after starting 11-2 at home...against bad teams (and the Pacers missing Granger/Hill).

Quality wins before FEB at home? - ATL, ORL, IND




The PTS DIFF? Well when you win at home vs DET, TOR and SAC by 20-30 it gets kind of lopsided and becomes a bit of an anomaly more than a helpful stat.


15-6 Dec/Jan
(insert reality check here)
6-9 Feb
8-8 March
2-7 April

vnzla81
04-17-2012, 10:42 PM
It looks to me like Philly is tanking :D

Anthem
04-17-2012, 11:09 PM
The Sixers DID NOT WIN ANY of their 4 home games in April - TOR, ORL, NJ, IND
Ouch.

Naptown_Seth
04-21-2012, 06:10 PM
Tonight the fans get to swing that hammer.

:D

Roaming Gnome
04-22-2012, 09:34 AM
Tonight the fans get to swing that hammer.

:D

...and get to bandage their thumb! :pissed:

Naptown_Seth
04-23-2012, 11:18 PM
It's possible I ****** up here.

:bag:



Can we count the Collins flip out for 15K fine as due to the fan hammer? Please?