View Full Version : Behind the man who predicted Linsanity

02-16-2012, 03:31 PM

In May 2010, an unsung numbers hobbyist named Ed Weiland wrote a long-term forecast of Jeremy Lin for the basketball website Hoops Analyst.


With each passing game, Jeremy Lin's legend grows. We've got it covered from every angle.

At the time, Lin was a lightly regarded, semi-known point guard who had completed his final season at Harvard.

But Weiland saw NBA material. He emphasized how well Lin played in three non-conference games against big schools: Connecticut, Boston College and Georgetown. He noted how Lin's performance in two unsexy statistical categories two-point field-goal percentage (a barometer of inside scoring ability) and RSB40 (rebounds, steals and blocks per 40 minutes) compared favorably to college numbers put up by marquee NBA guards like Allen Iverson and Gary Payton.

Weiland concluded that Lin had to improve on his passing and leadership at the point, but argued that if he did, "Jeremy Lin is a good enough player to start in the NBA and possibly star."

In the wake of Lin's historic New York explosion he guided the Knicks to a seventh straight win with a double-double against Sacramento Wednesday night Weiland's eerily prescient post has quickly recirculated around the internet as a rare example of someone who saw potential in a player who wasn't drafted and was abandoned by two teams before getting a chance with the Knicks.

Traffic rushing to Weiland's 2010 Lin piece briefly crashed the Hoops Analyst website after Lin torched the Lakers for 38 points Friday, and his wisdom has been compared with the groundbreaking number-crunching in the baseball best seller "Moneyball," which became a recent Hollywood movie.

Monitoring from his silver Toshiba laptop, Weiland has been amused by the new appreciation of his work. A 51-year-old father of two, grandfather of one, vegan and amateur trail runner who lives by himself in Bend, Ore. a region full of cyclists and snowboarders Weiland doesn't fit the profile of a 21st-century sports wonk.

"You were probably expecting a 22-year-old MIT graduate," Weiland said Wednesday, in his first interview since Linsanity began.

In the 1980s, Weiland became fascinated by the work of Bill James, an ex-security guard whose detailed baseball analysis would later help revolutionize that sport.

For fun, Weiland began to compile his own data. A fan of the Michael Jordan Bulls, Weiland was living in Chicago when he began to find like-minded hobbyists on the internet. He began self-publishing his insights online. Weiland connected with Hoops Analyst in the mid-2000s.

"He had a special interest in translating how NCAA players would do when they came to the NBA," said the site's founder, Harlan Schreiber. "Jeremy Lin is just an example of what he's been doing for years."

Weiland said that he'd once hoped to turn his stats hobby into a professional career, but it was "never a burning ambition." He compared it to friends who played music for love.

02-16-2012, 03:40 PM
I thought you were going to have a picture of pacers4ever.

02-16-2012, 04:37 PM
Good for this guy, but I bet there are people predicting great things for all kinds of players...I'm sure there was some guy predicting Solomonsanity or something...

Some of these people are employed. E.g. Skip Bayless predicts in '01:

Two or three years from now you’ll look back and think: How could [Michael] Jordan have not taken DeSagana Diop No. 1? Diop is the one athletic freak in this draft. Diop is the only man alive age 18 or above with the potential to be better than Shaquille O’Neal.

Slick Pinkham
02-16-2012, 05:26 PM
I rememberthe glowing praise for Ike Diogu when we got him in trade for Jax:

"The Golden State Warriors have agreed to trade Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, Ike Diogu and Keith McLeod to the Indiana Pacers for Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson, Sarunas Jasikevicius and Josh Powell" http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2733891

Hollinger's take: Acquiring Ike Diogu from the Warriors makes this trade a winner for the Pacers (insider content). I believe he said that "10 years from now I have a feeling that we'll be looking back on this deal as the Ike Diogu trade".

One year later we sent him packing, with Jerryd Bayless, and Portland sent us Jarrett Jack, Josh McRoberts and the draft rights to Brandon Rush.

Five years later we actually strain to remember who Ike Diogu actually is.

02-16-2012, 05:27 PM
I thought you were going to have a picture of pacers4ever.

No, that was Eric Gordon ;)

and P4E , we are just plaing here bro, in fact I nominated you ,

tora tora
02-17-2012, 06:30 PM

02-17-2012, 08:48 PM

:laugh: good one.

02-17-2012, 08:59 PM

That is my new sig.

02-17-2012, 09:51 PM
Lin doesn't suck but me and about everyone (except this guy) else including 29 GMs and almost 30(knicks were gonna cut him before the break out games) though he wasn't good enough for a spot on a 15 man roster :laugh:

But he did suck when I watched him in GS:D

But to be fair he does make Steve Nash look like a good defender. Even he admits he has been a bad defender so his defense does suck :lol: :laugh:

But no joke his offense is killer props to Tora Tora you should of sent Larry Legend a memo we had the roster space. Cant say I blame Larry I wouldnt of brought him in ethier.

I will eat crow happily I have been glued to my lg pass watching Linsanity how he finishes in the paint is a thing of beauty.

Solo Jones sighting for the Hornets!!!

Lin needs to clean up the TOs tonight though the Hornets are gonna win if the Knicks keep this TO pace up.

Lin has to adjust the Hornets aren't letting him penetrate tonight. But he is smart im sure he will figure it out.

02-18-2012, 05:45 PM
That is my new sig.

Coolest thing around here since the Ike Diogu trade.

02-19-2012, 01:19 AM
I knew he was going to be good when I saw him in the summer league, but didn't think he'd be this good.

02-19-2012, 01:30 AM
About a month ago I was in New York talking to some friends who are Knicks fans about Iman Shumpert, who I played with as a kid. I don't think that highly of Iman's game so I said half joking that Jeremy Lin would probably get a shot to start at some point. I wish I had clarified that I was somewhat serious instead of letting it go as a joke.

02-19-2012, 06:42 PM
I always remember the GSW game where Lin was giving Collison the full court press and just slaughtering him. It was always clear that he had NBA skills, just was fairly inconsistent early in his career, as most young players are.

In his case though, the whole notions of potential were mired in the typical stereotypes: too small, asian, less prestigious basketball school, etc etc... that made teams less patient to see what he would actually be.

Good for him... and he got the Harvard degree to boot.