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View Full Version : Early injuries a blessing in disguise?



canyoufeelit
10-29-2004, 11:42 PM
The playoffs are pretty much a certainty despite the slew of preseason injuries the Pacers are racking up. It was all but guaranteed that we'll either be the 4th or 1st seed and end up on a collision course with the Pistons because of the new divisional alignment, but with all the injuries (and it's a LOT :o) can you imagine a scenario where we get a lower seed because of a slow start? I can deal with that. Something like the 99 Knicks, a lot of talent, and it finally all comes together at the end of the year. Say the Pacers get off to a slow start and finish in the range of 45-50 wins:

playoff picture
1) Pistons, almost guaranteed at this point
2) Heat
3) who cares
4) this seed gets to play the Pistons in the 2nd round
5) this seed gets to play the Pistons in the 2nd round
6) here is good
7) here is good
8) but not here

That would mean the P's get the Heat in the 2nd round rather than the Pistons. (Of course we were banged up by the ECF so maybe it's better we face the toughest team early on, at full strength?)

I don't know. But could you imagine this scenario happening the way things are shaping up (already) and what would be the best possible playoff scenario (yeah a little too early to tell, so what, we're all expert analysts who can see the future) in your opinion?

Edit: another way of looking at it is that JO, Reggie, and Jeff would also be fresher at the end of the reg. season... although admittedly ron and jax would probably have to carry a huge load early on and be less fresh

Kegboy
10-30-2004, 12:20 AM
If this was the west, I'd see that as a possibility. But in the east, even giving the rest of the conference a one month head start, we're still better than every other team except Detroit and Miami.

I'm thinking the exact opposite. This will probably keep us from getting HC against Detroit, which sucks.
---
Asked afterward if O'Neal's absence contributed to Charlotte's win, Knight bristled.

"What about Primoz? They didn't have Shaq, but we didn't have Primoz," he said.

clownskull
10-30-2004, 12:38 AM
i wish i could see this as some kind of blessing somehow. i really do, but this goes way beyound fu(#ed up at this point. next thing i wonder is by the time the season actually starts, are we even going to be able to field a team? has this EVER happend to any other team with SO many guys unable to play?
jesus this is ridiculous!
why can't half of these injuries happen to the pistons? well, there is a whole season to play i suppose and alot can happen between the start and finish

Ultimate Frisbee
10-30-2004, 12:39 AM
I'm not all that disappointed... on the one hand, we will struggle, on the other, we have a bunch of bench players who will get a chance to play now.... If only Bender wernen't injured...

Kegboy
10-30-2004, 12:47 AM
I know there was a team last year that ended up getting TWO medical exceptions. Minnesota, I think.
---
Asked afterward if O'Neal's absence contributed to Charlotte's win, Knight bristled.

"What about Primoz? They didn't have Shaq, but we didn't have Primoz," he said.

Anthem
10-30-2004, 01:08 AM
We won't fall that far.

TheSauceMaster
10-30-2004, 03:18 PM
Better to get the injuries now early and get them out of the way , I don't think were going to do as bad as some are thinking. If we can make it through November at .500 or alittle better then we should be just fine , I am not going to run around and scream the sky is falling just yet ;)

It's going to give some of our bench guys some playing time , which could really help us in the playoffs and yes I know things look grim now but we won't miss the playoffs.

Destined4Greatness
10-30-2004, 09:49 PM
This is great all those players James Jones, Fred Jones, ETC. Who weren't going to be ready will be able to use the time to develop. And we should have a higher level of skill at the end of the season.

tseramid
10-30-2004, 11:14 PM
I usually don't buy into the theory that injuries early mean that players will be healthy at the end. Injuries happen and can strike at any time. The only redeeming aspect is that with this team, we should have the ability to allow all of these injuries to fully heal before throwing them back out there. We cannot let JO's injury linger or get aggrevated. There is no guarantee that JO injures himself later this year anyways, but at least this particular issue hopefully will not come into play late in the season.

This has huge upside for players thought to be getting only the fringe PT like James Jones, Eddie Gill, David Harrison and perhaps you could classify Fred Jones. It's time to see if they can prove their worth on this team, because if they can not step up and play a role, then what is the point of having them on the team.

Anthem
10-31-2004, 03:04 AM
Hey Pacerman, a question for you.

Let's say we live in an ideal world where, when you flip a coin, you have a 50% chance to have it turn up heads (it's actually slightly off, but I forget which way).

Let's say you flip it 3 times, and each time it comes up heads. What are the odds that it will come up heads on the 4th time?

Let's say you flip it 7 time, and each time it comes up heads. What are the odds that it will come up heads on the 8th time?

Now get really crazy. Let's say you flip the coin 15 times, and each time it comes up heads. What are the odds it will be heads for the 16th time?

EDIT: Note the 4:8:16 progression... This is easier than it originally sounds.

wintermute
10-31-2004, 08:36 AM
not sure where the comparison is going, but it seems to me that the coin flip would 50-50 each item. that is, no correlation between coin flips.

actually, the case for injuries is probably worse than no correlation. an injury now means a chance of a re-injury later on, especially if the player rushes back and his name isn't artest.

Anthem
10-31-2004, 10:41 AM
not sure where the comparison is going, but it seems to me that the coin flip would 50-50 each item. that is, no correlation between coin flips.

actually, the case for injuries is probably worse than no correlation. an injury now means a chance of a re-injury later on, especially if the player rushes back and his name isn't artest.


:mad: But HE didn't know that!

tseramid
10-31-2004, 04:48 PM
It's far from a 50/50 chance a batter will get hit in baseball. That's like saying there is a 50/50 chance I could fire a 50 foot shot in basketball and hit it. Reggie's injury looked to me like something as freakish as it gets. That could happen again later in the season just as easily as it did there.

I've also seen teams just decimated by injuries all year long when other teams barely have a cut. If you want to start quoting statistics, the Pacers have been relatively injury free the past several years with very few season ending injuries. Are we due now? Hopefully we will not be fighting boo-boos all year.

ChicagoJ
11-01-2004, 09:56 AM
It's far from a 50/50 chance a batter will get hit in baseball. That's like saying there is a 50/50 chance I could fire a 50 foot shot in basketball and hit it.


You all have obviously never seen me attempt to hit a baseball.

There's about snowball's chance in hell that I can even make contact, let alone keep it fair.

Coin tosses are purely random. Injuries are mostly random but conditioning can make a difference (thus, certainly people are injury-prone and injuries are not purely random.) Hitting a baseball and shooting a basketball are skills. It always annoys me when someone tries to use a coin-toss analogy with something like FG%. Of course, it also annoys me when someone claims, "to give 110%."