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MTM
07-12-2011, 11:01 AM
Apologies if this is already a thread... but has anyone put together a post where we can all guess the date the lockout ends? If not, then here goes:

Three questions:

(1) When does the lockout end?
(2) What date is the first date NBA games will be played again?
(3) Explain why you think so


My answers:

(1) May 31, 2012
(2) Opening games, 2012
(3) If the 1998 lockout did not end until January 20th of the season, and players and teams are saying that the issues are much more contentious this time, I think we lose an entire season out of this mess. I think the sides will come together in advance of the 2012 draft.

Speed
07-12-2011, 11:24 AM
Hmmmm, really early to guess, but a great question.

Ends 12/1/11 - Players have missed a check they'll never get back, owners are losing ground with Sponsors who are nervous and ticked.

First games 12/25/11 - Thats when casual fans start to really take notice anyway. You'll get a 4 game Christmas special, featuring a rematch of Miami and Dallas. Pacers playing the first game 12/27, maybe.

I think no one really wants to blow this up, except a handful of new owners and poor owners. I think the union is still comprised mostly of middle and lower class players who haven't had 100 million dollar contracts like Kevin Garnett. If you start to lose a huge chunk of your income, it changes how unified you feel with the haves of the league.

I still think it will all come down to bridging the gap around the new TV contract in 2015/2016 where they'll let that bigger pie make up the difference for everyone.

Owners will get shorter contracts and 48 to 50% of the BRI up from 43%. They'll keep almost everything else the same, so the union can say 'look we won, these other 15 things', although they'll be small compared to really the only issue, which is that BRI number and how its figured.

Hicks
07-12-2011, 01:33 PM
November 2011
Games start December 2011
Based on what I was reading by David Aldridge.

I'm very scared that I'm letting his optimism brainwash me.

Kegboy
07-12-2011, 01:45 PM
1) 12/21/12
2) n/a
3) Mayan prophecy of armageddon

BillS
07-12-2011, 03:01 PM
3) Mayan prophecy of armageddon

Mixing your religions there, kegboy?

Brad8888
07-12-2011, 04:02 PM
Mixing your religions there, kegboy?

True. According to the Mayans, everything simply ceases.

neosmndrew
07-12-2011, 06:43 PM
1. A week after the first paycheck is missed (early december, say 12/10/110

2. Right around Christmas (12/21/11 maybe)

3. I trust Aldridge more than basically all the doom-and-gloom, probably no season analysts (*cough* everyone on espn *cough*), and I really don't think that sponsors and networks will sit pat while they potentially lose hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars. It may take a big name sponsor/network to say "if you don't get this fixed in the next week, we're leaving and not coming back", but I really think it will get done,

BillS
07-12-2011, 07:02 PM
True. According to the Mayans, everything simply ceases.

Or a new cycle starts, depending on who you listen to. Ar any rate, the Mayans didn't know from any battle at Megiddo to destroy the Antichrist.

Kegboy
07-12-2011, 07:46 PM
Mixing your religions there, kegboy?

When someone makes a smilie of you as the pope, then you can criticize.



(Please, for the love of all things holy, let somebody do that.)

[edit] Actually, the only reason I said that is when I googled the date the first link was ArmageddonOnline.org.

Brad8888
07-12-2011, 08:59 PM
Or a new cycle starts, depending on who you listen to. Ar any rate, the Mayans didn't know from any battle at Megiddo to destroy the Antichrist.

Probably a new cycle where a parallel reality to the one we are currently experiencing happens, wherein the brawl never happens because the Pacers win the championship in the next incarnation of the 1998 through 2000 seasons and never trade Dale Davis.

And, the coach who shall not be named is never hired to coach the Pacers!

I like this parallel reality thing!

Banta
07-12-2011, 09:33 PM
Some time 2013. In the interim, a new league is formed.

jeffg-body
07-12-2011, 11:13 PM
1. I am saying around November 1st
2. First Game Played Thanksgiving Weekend with some big promptional hoopla
3. They don't want to lose a bunch of sponsors.

pacer4ever
07-13-2011, 12:00 AM
Oct 31 2012

granger33
07-13-2011, 08:59 AM
Oct 31 2012

ohhh man, i hope to god your wrong on this one.

Brad8888
07-14-2011, 04:14 PM
In the year 2525
If Man is still alive
If Woman can survive

Actual predictions

1.) January 21, 2012
2.) Season starts February 9, 2012 with a Thursday night opening matchup of Dallas vs. Miami
3.) NFL comes to agreement in time to save the majority of their season and keeps the Superbowl date of February 5, 2012. NBA chooses to start after that. It will result in a truncated schedule with more back to backs, teams allowed larger rosters to make up for poorly conditioned players, and a possible extension of the regular season ending date to the end of April, and a shortened post season with fewer days between games when possible.

vapacersfan
07-14-2011, 04:20 PM
1. October/November 2012 if we are lucky, I honestly think October/November 2013
2. Start of 2012/2013 season
3. I think a lot of people are being optomistic, I see this whole thing being long and drawn out

The Sleeze
07-14-2011, 04:36 PM
In the Year 2000!

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_d4v1490bMHo/S9qqoPVYDZI/AAAAAAAAABk/QH0wYdUyB4A/s320/conan-year2000.jpg

pacer4ever
07-15-2011, 08:17 PM
In the year 2525
If Man is still alive
If Woman can survive

Actual predictions

1.) January 21, 2012
2.) Season starts February 9, 2012 with a Thursday night opening matchup of Dallas vs. Miami
3.) NFL comes to agreement in time to save the majority of their season and keeps the Superbowl date of February 5, 2012. NBA chooses to start after that. It will result in a truncated schedule with more back to backs, teams allowed larger rosters to make up for poorly conditioned players, and a possible extension of the regular season ending date to the end of April, and a shortened post season with fewer days between games when possible.

If it is that day the season gets canceled. The way i understand it is if there isn't a agreement by Jan 1st the season is called off.( I could be way off base on that though)

joew8302
07-15-2011, 09:35 PM
Does it disturb anyone else that you see the NFL and the Union working just about every day to come to a resoultion and here is the NBA and they are not even meeting or doing anything during this time period?

pacer4ever
07-15-2011, 09:43 PM
Does it disturb anyone else that you see the NFL and the Union working just about every day to come to a resoultion and here is the NBA and they are not even meeting or doing anything during this time period?

the NFL didn't do anything for months. The NFL is just now trying because games are about to be missed which = money lost on both sides.

Come late September early October the NBA will be working this hard as well.(doubt anything gets done though they are miles apart)

joew8302
07-15-2011, 11:01 PM
the NFL didn't do anything for months. The NFL is just now trying because games are about to be missed which = money lost on both sides.

Come late September early October the NBA will be working this hard as well.(doubt anything gets done though they are miles apart)

Not true. The NFL and Union have been negotiating pretty much the whole time. Sure, there have been breaks here and there and it certainly hasn't been every day, but it has been steady.

Sandman21
07-15-2011, 11:56 PM
I've said it once and I'll say it again. If the season is completely lost, David Stern and Billy Hunter should BOTH be removed from power.

However, I'm in the David Aldridge (and apparently somewhat the Dan Dakich) camp, I believe we WILL see an NBA season this winter. Stern and Hunter are both aware of the momentum the league is on and a season lost to the lockout WILL kill it in several markets.

pacer4ever
07-16-2011, 12:18 AM
Not true. The NFL and Union have been negotiating pretty much the whole time. Sure, there have been breaks here and there and it certainly hasn't been every day, but it has been steady.

They met because they were court ordered too. I just dont agree with being happy with how the NFL handled the situation and dislike what the nba is doing negotiating wise.Both system had issues (NFL needed rookie wage scale)

these lockouts were necessary imo.

Richard_Skull
07-16-2011, 07:20 AM
1. 11-11-11
2. 11-22-11
3. I'm OCD.

ballism
07-16-2011, 07:45 AM
1. Mid November.
2. Early December.
3. Overseas seasons will start, the jobs will be gone. Player will start really losing the money. Half of them aren't stars, don't have a decade in the NBA and can't afford to wait. Owners will throw them a deal where they don't lose any money in the next 4 or 5 years, but screw up the future generation. And this will make majority of NBAPA voters blink.

Major Cold
07-16-2011, 08:32 AM
April 23 @4:05 p.m. it is officially announced
Games start in the 2012-2013
This will be drawn out and when the threat of losing two seasons the players will compromise.

vapacersfan
07-16-2011, 11:46 AM
They met because they were court ordered too. I just dont agree with being happy with how the NFL handled the situation and dislike what the nba is doing negotiating wise.Both system had issues (NFL needed rookie wage scale)

these lockouts were necessary imo.

They were meeting before the courts mandated it.

The NFL system needed some tweaking, but all along both sides were working to get a deal done (though I truly think they would have lasted longer if it were not for the TV deals. It will never be released, but I would not be surprised if those TV network with 1 and 2 billion (with a B) dollar contracts had back room meeting with both sides and said "Get this done or both of you will regret letting this drag on)

pacer4ever
07-16-2011, 11:55 AM
They were meeting before the courts mandated it.

The NFL system needed some tweaking, but all along both sides were working to get a deal done (though I truly think they would have lasted longer if it were not for the TV deals. It will never be released, but I would not be surprised if those TV network with 1 and 2 billion (with a B) dollar contracts had back room meeting with both sides and said "Get this done or both of you will regret letting this drag on)

the NBA is scheduled to meet also.

vapacersfan
07-16-2011, 11:57 AM
Yeah, I was going to put that in my post but forgot.

Of course, the NBA and NBAPA and like two ex's. They may get together and talk, but at this point neither side is going to budge an inch. I would be shocked if the meeting is anything more then "This is where we stand. How you changed your stance and agreed to what we want yet?"

Brad8888
07-16-2011, 03:47 PM
1. 11-11-11
2. 11-22-11
3. I'm OCD.

At least neither option was 10-11-12, or 12-12-12, or :eek: 12-22-21, or 12-23-34...

MTM
07-19-2011, 02:48 PM
With the schedule now released and the only ESPN-televised game being on December 2nd, I wonder whether the league will be back in action in time for us to see the only scheduled television appearance (not including NBA TV or local tv).

Constellations
07-19-2011, 04:20 PM
3) Mayan prophecy of armageddon

:laugh: The Mayans are an even older version of Harold Camping. Fail. Anyone ever think that maybe they just got tired of making calendars?

December 21st 2012 will just be another day folks.

Brad8888
07-19-2011, 06:00 PM
:laugh: The Mayans are an even older version of Harold Camping. Fail. Anyone ever think that maybe they just got tired of making calendars?

December 21st 2012 will just be another day folks.

Nuh-uh...:shakehead

There will never be another day like 12-21-2012. It will be unlike any day that has come before it. There will be dangerous natural occurences that will be reported on in the news, unexplained happenings will happen, and there will be people whose lives will change forever that day.

And, there will be people who will sing

That's great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane -
Lenny Bruce is not afraid. Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn -
world serves its own needs, regardless of your own needs. Feed it up a knock,
speed, grunt no, strength no. Ladder structure clatter with fear of height,
down height. Wire in a fire, represent the seven games in a government for
hire and a combat site. Left her, wasn't coming in a hurry with the furies
breathing down your neck. Team by team reporters baffled, trump, tethered
crop. Look at that low plane! Fine then. Uh oh, overflow, population,
common group, but it'll do. Save yourself, serve yourself. World serves its
own needs, listen to your heart bleed. Tell me with the rapture and the
reverent in the right - right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright
light, feeling pretty psyched.

It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

Six o'clock - TV hour. Don't get caught in foreign tower. Slash and burn,
return, listen to yourself churn. Lock him in uniform and book burning,
blood letting. Every motive escalate. Automotive incinerate. Light a candle,
light a motive. Step down, step down. Watch a heel crush, crush. Uh oh,
this means no fear - cavalier. Renegade and steer clear! A tournament,
a tournament, a tournament of lies. Offer me solutions, offer me alternatives
and I decline.

It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

The other night I tripped a nice continental drift divide. Mount St. Edelite.
Leonard Bernstein. Leonid Breshnev, Lenny Bruce and Lester Bangs.
Birthday party, cheesecake, jelly bean, boom! You symbiotic, patriotic,
slam, but neck, right? Right.

It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine...fine...

(It's time I had some time alone)

And, there will be news coverage of all of it from all around the globe for many days before and after that day.

Then the world, as we have known it, will have ended. Why? Because we no longer will be in a world where the end date of the Mayan calendar refers to a time in the future.

Constellations
07-19-2011, 06:22 PM
Nuh-uh...:shakehead

There will never be another day like 12-21-2012. It will be unlike any day that has come before it. There will be dangerous natural occurences that will be reported on in the news, unexplained happenings will happen, and there will be people whose lives will change forever that day.

:citizenkane:

MTM
09-13-2011, 05:42 PM
Bump

1984
09-14-2011, 08:38 AM
This sucks.

Brad8888
10-11-2011, 10:59 AM
Bump to see what everyone posted then and what we all think now!

I still think something along the lines of

1.) January 21, 2012
2.) Season starts February 9, 2012 with a Thursday night opening matchup of Dallas vs. Miami
3.) NBA chooses to start after Super Bowl. It will result in a truncated schedule with more back to backs, teams allowed larger rosters to make up for poorly conditioned players, and a possible extension of the regular season ending date to the end of April, and a shortened post season with fewer days between games when possible.

MTM
10-11-2011, 11:19 AM
I found it incredibly amazing that Uncle Buck's prediction several weeks back that October 10th would be the make-or-break date turned out to be true to the very date. Despite my earlier prediction of a lost season, I do think that progress has been made, and there is the potential for a season this year. The biggest question now will be whether both sides dig in their heels and getting into a staring contest. If so, then it could be a long wait.

duke dynamite
10-11-2011, 11:31 AM
I honestly don't believe there will be a season this year.

pacergod2
10-11-2011, 11:34 AM
I honestly don't believe there will be a season this year.

Not now.

Hicks
10-11-2011, 01:16 PM
November 2011
Games start December 2011
Based on what I was reading by David Aldridge.

I'm very scared that I'm letting his optimism brainwash me.

Well, my optimistic prediction could still come to be, but it's hard to feel cheery after last night.

Unclebuck
10-11-2011, 01:25 PM
I suppose I need to start by saying this post is my opinion, and that I do not know what will happen.

I think the chances that any basketball is played in the month of November is about 1%. I'd say 0%, but I suppose you never know.

The chances of any basketball being played in the month of December is about 3%

The chances of any basketball being played the month of January is IMO about 25%. They could start the short season late January - but before january 20th, I'd say about 8% chance

February: 75%

I'd really be surprised if there is any type of new CBA before January 1st. Maybe I remember 1998 too well.

I base my opinion on the fact that the start of the season is a huge incentive to get a deal, but now that has passed, the next two things is when the players start to lose paychecks and IMO bigger than that is when it looks as though the entire season might be lost - but that isn't until the first of the year.

Hicks
10-11-2011, 02:38 PM
This was supposed to be the first week of preseason games. We should be listening to Mark and Slick and trying not to overreact to the play of the team and the players right now while we get ready to see how they look on opening night. :(

Sollozzo
10-11-2011, 02:46 PM
This was supposed to be the first week of preseason games. We should be listening to Mark and Slick and trying not to overreact to the play of the team and the players right now while we get ready to see how they look on opening night. :(



Yeah, there would be more October excitement on here than any year since 2004 when we were coming off the 61 win season. A damn shame.

We have so much to be excited about with the way they played at the end of the year, the addition of George, and Vogel's first full season. It would be much easier to take if this happened a year, two, or three ago.

EDIT: It also sucks badly for all of us Colts fans here. If this were a normal Colt year, you'd at least have prospect of a deep Colts playoff run to keep you excited.

Nothing but misery all around.

BillS
10-11-2011, 03:02 PM
EDIT: It also sucks badly for all of us Colts fans here. If this were a normal Colt year, you'd at least have prospect of a deep Colts playoff run to keep you excited.

I lament the loss of an opportunity for some early excitement about the Pacers lifting the spirits of the city and making the Pacers seem somewhat relevant again.

Timing of all this just really sucks.

Unclebuck
10-11-2011, 03:08 PM
You guys are really depressing.

Constellations
10-11-2011, 03:38 PM
I think the chances that any basketball is played in the month of November is about 1%. I'd say 0%, but I suppose you never know.

The chances of any basketball being played in the month of December is about 3%

You my friend are more depressing.

Brad8888
10-11-2011, 06:46 PM
You guys are really depressing.

Depression is depressing...

:sigh:

Shade
10-12-2011, 07:29 AM
(1) When does the lockout end? Early December
(2) What date is the first date NBA games will be played again? December 25th
(3) Explain why you think so Christmas Day is huge for the NBA.