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owl
07-04-2011, 11:28 AM
What if no aggreement is reached after one season? Do players head over seas?
Do the owners form a new league? Do the players start a league?

wintermute
07-04-2011, 12:24 PM
The NBA isn't going anywhere. It's a $4 billion business. Neither the owners nor the players want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.

The owners have too much invested in the current league, from marketing and branding to arenas and markets. The players on the other hand don't have other options that pay anywhere close to what the NBA does.

The owners locking out the players doesn't meant eternal enmity between them, no matter what the PR narrative is. It's just a negotiating tactic. Similarly, if players dissolve their union and sue the owners, well it's just another move for leverage. They'll all get back on the negotiating table soon enough. I myself seriously doubt that the whole season will be in danger (unless the players are more resilient than anybody thought.)

It's all about getting a larger slice of the pie. No one's complaining about the pie itself.

Kid Minneapolis
07-04-2011, 02:13 PM
Uh oh, time for the XBA. Wonder if He Hate Me is still active?

Mikey85
07-04-2011, 02:15 PM
Uh oh, time for the XBA. Wonder if He Hate Me is still active?

A real life NBA Jam!!

rabid
07-04-2011, 05:08 PM
Hmm do I see a window of opportunity opening here?

<iframe width="560" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/2ouXw328WYI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Pingu
07-04-2011, 05:21 PM
Hmm do I see a window of opportunity opening here?

Dunks, blocks, traveling violations... Looks like the regular NBA to me.

Kstat
07-04-2011, 05:30 PM
Both the NBA and NFL players have tried to put on games by themselves due to a labor dispute. Both situations ended in disaster and total disinterest.

Nobody wants to see NBA basketball without NBA players, but likewise nobody wants to see NBA players playing on their own without an established brand. There would be no rooting interest to keep fans hooked.

imbtyler
07-04-2011, 05:55 PM
Both the NBA and NFL players have tried to put on games by themselves due to a labor dispute. Both situations ended in disaster and total disinterest.

Nobody wants to see NBA basketball without NBA players, but likewise nobody wants to see NBA players playing on their own without an established brand. There would be no rooting interest to keep fans hooked.

If the Pacers' roster was moved from the NBA to the T(emporary)BA, I'd watch. If I didn't already have plans tomorrow, I'd be at the Indy Pro AM, just because it's 1. basketball, and 2. featuring Pacers players.

My biggest issue with the lockout currently is that there isn't ANY other basketball going on (sorry WNBA, but you're not as exciting as the men's). When college ball starts up again, I'll probably watch more than I normally would, at least to get a jumpstart on my 2012 draft research.

However, I really don't see this lasting a full year. It's only a matter of time before someone gives in. Unfortunately, the only people getting screwed out of anything are the fans. The players are still getting to play ball (Drew League, various state Pro AMs, etc.), and they and the owners both have plenty of money to keep them comfortable. And since both groups are stubborn and/or greedy, they're going to continue going back-and-forth with underwhelming propositions; the players not wanting a hard cap or non-guaranteed contracts, and the owners not wanting the players to be earning a majority of the league's profits (players had ~56%, owners want to drop it to 51% at the most).*

As we can all expect, we're in for a very long and bumpy ride; like riding a three-legged mule from Portland, Oregon to Portland, Maine. I'm still banking on the lockout ending by October, though.


* this information is only moderately accurate. I'm unsure on exact statistics/percentages, as well as intimate lockout details. my greatest apologies if I blaspheme any of the explanation.

Day-V
07-04-2011, 05:59 PM
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_78yAFvkNM3c/TKYHVM1etdI/AAAAAAAACok/u3ipJGTzI60/s1600/jp.jpg

"It could happen!"

BlueNGold
07-04-2011, 06:02 PM
Pau Gasol is considering Spain or China.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ap-nbalockout-gasol
Source: Yahoo

Kobe and Amare' are considering China. I can see a lot of players heading to China.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/Kobe-Bryant-ponders-China-tour-if-NBA-lockout-is-prolonged-070411
Source: Fox Sports

Kstat
07-04-2011, 06:09 PM
China is the one spot likely to pay NBA players on a game-by-game basis. Most of the European leagues aren't going to pay through the nose for foreign players knowing they will be gone the second a lockout ends. It also doesn't help that the European economy is one greek domino away from a total shitstorm.

I do suspect NBA players aren't going to enjoy paying for their own insurance, nor traveling commercially. They could go with Kobe's idea of forming their own travel teams, but a handful of teams playing each other over and over again is going to get stale quickly, as will the fact players are not going to play very hard and risk injuring themselves.

I know the Chinese are infatuated with Kobe Bryant, but that's because he's a winner. What's the appeal going to be if there's nothing for him to win?

Kstat
07-04-2011, 06:17 PM
It also bothers me that some of these NBA players are taking opportunities away from guys that really need the work.

I have a friend who's spent the last several years rehabbing from his last stint in Germany during his spare time to take one last crack at the NBA. He finally got a sniff from a team in China, and now he may as well not even exist because they have dreams of landing an NBA superstar.

This is really no different than pro teams bringing in scabs to work during a strike. If the NBA guys want to do their own thing to earn money, that's their business. I just don't want guys coming off $50 million contracts to take jobs away from guys barely holding on.

able
07-04-2011, 06:26 PM
Unlilke in 1998 the players are better prepared, but so are the agents, who's interest it is that salaries go up instead of down.
Outside the fact that Europe and China are now areas where money can be made in serious quantities, outside of the USA, there is also the organizational talent of those agents, usually very large companies nowadays, that with the talent they rep as a firm can fill a tour somewhere in the world.

This is the one thing the owners need to fear, because if that happens, the players will undoubtedly use part of that income to help the less fortunate of their collegues, and on top of which most free-agents will have the 1 year/season option in Europe, which in the end would leave the serious losses with the owners.

Kstat
07-04-2011, 06:33 PM
...are they going to use the income to help the players whose spots they took as well?

I don't give a damn about the owners or the players losing money. I do give a damn about the guy trying to support a wife and kids being out of work because a group of millionaires wanted to make a power play in a labor dispute.

ndcoltsnpacers
07-04-2011, 07:25 PM
...are they going to use the income to help the players whose spots they took as well?

I don't give a damn about the owners or the players losing money. I do give a damn about the guy trying to support a wife and kids being out of work because a group of millionaires wanted to make a power play in a labor dispute.

A man with a wife and kids better have a good backup option other than basketball if he wants to support them. Unless he's really really good but that's not who you're talking about here. Point is if you've chosen basketball as your profession you've taken a huge risk, and this is one of the downfalls.

King Tuts Tomb
07-04-2011, 07:35 PM
Chinese leagues have limits on how many foreign players a team can have so I wouldn't worry about a max exodus. KStat's buddies will be fine.

The lock-out is part of a negotiation. It's a long process. Worst case they'll miss a couple games but long term they'll work it out. There's too much money for anyone to walk away.

Hicks
07-04-2011, 07:48 PM
David Aldridge is predicting the regular season to start around Christmas time. I hope he's right; some of the other speculation out there has me a little depressed.

owl
07-04-2011, 08:06 PM
How do players under contract play for someone else? Because of the lockout are these contracts void? If so what about when the lock out is over? Who is insuring the players?
I could see players with no contract who are free agents to do what they want but not all the players under conract.

Insights?

Mikey85
07-04-2011, 08:15 PM
A man with a wife and kids better have a good backup option other than basketball if he wants to support them. Unless he's really really good but that's not who you're talking about here. Point is if you've chosen basketball as your profession you've taken a huge risk, and this is one of the downfalls.

Players arent the only ones missing paychecks when games start getting cancelled...Bad decision makers and millionaires want to argue money. Arena employees don't work games anymore...bartenders dont get that game night traffic anymore ect.

Kstat
07-04-2011, 09:27 PM
A man with a wife and kids better have a good backup option other than basketball if he wants to support them. Unless he's really really good but that's not who you're talking about here. Point is if you've chosen basketball as your profession you've taken a huge risk, and this is one of the downfalls.

No, one of the downfalls is that you lose your job to someone else. However, it shouldn't be a guy that already has a $50 million contract and is just trying to prove a point.

I also didn't say he was unemployed. I said he was trying to get back into pro basketball so he could pursue his dream and make a better life.

Bball
07-05-2011, 12:54 PM
Chinese leagues have limits on how many foreign players a team can have so I wouldn't worry about a max exodus. KStat's buddies will be fine.



How will Kstat's buddy be fine if there's a limit to the number of foreign players leagues can take and they fill those limited spots with established NBA players who are there only because they can rather than actually wanting/needing the opportunity? Let alone, teams holding out and not taking someone like Kstat's buddy because they are holding out in hopes of NBA star players coming over (which never be more than a threat anyway)?

Trader Joe
07-05-2011, 01:26 PM
I feel bad for the poor sap who goes and plays in China on a game by game basis, blows out his knee and then has his contract voided in the NBA. It would take a truly colossal moron to actually do that. Especially someone like Amare with his health history, talk about disaster.

Kstat
07-05-2011, 02:43 PM
How will Kstat's buddy be fine if there's a limit to the number of foreign players leagues can take and they fill those limited spots with established NBA players who are there only because they can rather than actually wanting/needing the opportunity? Let alone, teams holding out and not taking someone like Kstat's buddy because they are holding out in hopes of NBA star players coming over (which never be more than a threat anyway)?

My point exactly.

I just don't want to see people screwed over by this simply because they aren't part of the highest paid union on earth.

Nobody is going to care publicly if a few dozen (or a few hundred) fringe guys are put out of a job.

King Tuts Tomb
07-05-2011, 05:08 PM
How will Kstat's buddy be fine if there's a limit to the number of foreign players leagues can take and they fill those limited spots with established NBA players who are there only because they can rather than actually wanting/needing the opportunity? Let alone, teams holding out and not taking someone like Kstat's buddy because they are holding out in hopes of NBA star players coming over (which never be more than a threat anyway)?

Because players like Kobe Bryant and LeBron James won't play in China if it's them and 11 Chinese dudes on a team. It's the reason Kobe's talking about starting a barnstorming team. He's not gonna join the Shanxi Brave Dragons or the Xinjiang Flying Tigers.

Kobe and LeBron will play in China for a Nike travelling team, but that's it.

King Tuts Tomb
07-05-2011, 05:15 PM
My point exactly.

I just don't want to see people screwed over by this simply because they aren't part of the highest paid union on earth.

Nobody is going to care publicly if a few dozen (or a few hundred) fringe guys are put out of a job.

A few hundred? There can't be more than 30 or 40 Americans in the CBA right now.

Kstat
07-05-2011, 05:20 PM
I wasn't talking about just the CBA.

King Tuts Tomb
07-05-2011, 06:46 PM
I wasn't talking about just the CBA.

Where are you talking about? Every league in the world?

Kstat
07-05-2011, 07:12 PM
Where are you talking about? Every league in the world?

China is the first domino. After that, it could mean more players try to go overseas to Europe, or fewer.

King Tuts Tomb
07-05-2011, 07:22 PM
China is the first domino. After that, it could mean more players try to go overseas to Europe, or fewer.

Then I don't really understand your point. Kobe shouldn't play basketball anywhere outside of the US because he might take someone else's job? This seems ridiculously restrictive.

Reginald
07-05-2011, 08:34 PM
Worst case they'll miss a couple games but long term they'll work it out. There's too much money for anyone to walk away.

Your worst case is roughly 1000% more optimistic than most people's worst cases. The NBA's current economic model is garbage, and the league is held prisoner by a handful of prima donna athletes who think they deserve 4-5 times the guaranteed money than the NFL for a sport that generates 3.8 billion less in annual revenue.

I fully expect to lose the entire season.

QuickRelease
07-05-2011, 09:02 PM
Hmm do I see a window of opportunity opening here?

<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/2ouXw328WYI" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="349" width="560"></iframe>That one at :48 was nice!

King Tuts Tomb
07-05-2011, 09:17 PM
Your worst case is roughly 1000% more optimistic than most people's worst cases. The NBA's current economic model is garbage, and the league is held prisoner by a handful of prima donna athletes who think they deserve 4-5 times the guaranteed money than the NFL for a sport that generates 3.8 billion less in annual revenue.

I fully expect to lose the entire season.

Held hostage by prima donna athletes? The league agreed to 57% of the revenue going to player salaries. How are they held hostage by a deal they agreed to?

The economy plummeted and blindsided the owners, just like a lot of business owners. The difference is the NBA has guaranteed contracts and they can't have massive lay-offs like those other companies, so their revenues dropped but their business costs stayed the same. I don't blame the owners OR the players. They're both acting in what they think will be beneficial to their side and the league as a whole.

If they lose a year then they lose a year. It helped hockey tremendously.