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View Full Version : If the Season is Lost, What About the Draft?



Ransom
07-03-2011, 11:22 AM
So if this doesn't get done, and we lose a whole season, how does that effect the 2012 draft? Do they just go with 2010-2011 records? Because I can see Some Cavs Or T-Wolves fan suddenly hoping for a lost season then.

Shade
07-03-2011, 11:26 AM
Excellent question. I'm also curious about this.

Sobotka
07-03-2011, 11:32 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=coon_larry&page=lockoutFAQ-110701


If the lockout lasts an entire season, what will happen with the 2012 draft? How will the draft order be determined?

If the season is canceled and the sides come to an agreement by next June, the 2012 draft should go on as planned. The draft order will be a little tricky. There will be no season upon which to determine the order, and they can't just repeat the 2011 draft order -- that would "reward" teams twice for the same bad season in 2010-11.

The NHL was faced with this dilemma when it lost its 2004-05 season to a lockout. The league settled on a weighted lottery that included all 30 teams. The weighting was based on playoff appearances over the previous three seasons and first overall picks over the previous four seasons.

The NBA would likely adopt a similar system should the 2011-12 season be canceled. It would be a one-time occurrence -- the league would revert to its usual system the following year.

Shade
07-03-2011, 11:38 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=coon_larry&page=lockoutFAQ-110701

Hmm...sounds like potential grounds for more controversial lottery shenanigans... :tinfoil:

Ransom
07-03-2011, 11:59 AM
The 2012 NBA draft:

1. Lakers
2. Celtics
3. Knicks
4. Bulls
5. Heat

;)

Brad8888
07-03-2011, 12:40 PM
All 30 teams should each have an envelope in a drum that is drawn out to determine the order. The coldest one with the bent corner should get the first pick, just like it was in days of yore...

Or, maybe the population base of each franchises market should determine ratios for half of the balls in the "bingo" machine, with the other 50% of them being equally divided amongst the franchises, kind of like the ratios in Congress...

Or, each of the thirty owners should compete in a "Bachelorette" style competition where a given player decides who he is interested in and gets to ask the owner, "Do you accept this contract?"

The following could actually prove to be even bigger for ESPN than the "Decision"!

Maybe all 30 owners should go to a remote island and compete Survivor style (or more realistically to a larger Big Brother style mansion), with the order that they are voted off determining the picks, with the first voted off getting 30th pick, etc. up until there are only 14 owners left. Then, those owners still would get their corresponding picks until the final 3 are remaining, but the owners of picks 4 through 14 would comprise a jury that the final 3 would have to plead their case to as to why their franchise and their fanbases deserve to receive the top pick in the draft. ESPN could carry this Mark Burnett created series, with ESPN2 carrying bonus coverage with a live feed at various times of the day and night, and ESPN3 covering the remainder. Also, there could be a subscription based live 24/7 internet feed where subscribers could choose which cameras to view at any given time. Imagine the traffic that could generate!

CooperManning
07-03-2011, 02:27 PM
The league settled on a weighted lottery that included all 30 teams. The weighting was based on playoff appearances over the previous three seasons and first overall picks over the previous four seasons.

This seems like it would be pretty favorable to us, since we only made the playoffs 1 out of the last 3 seasons. Getting a better draft pick than we otherwise would have would be a decent consolation to missing the entire season.

Brad8888
07-03-2011, 02:40 PM
This seems like it would be pretty favorable to us, since we only made the playoffs 1 out of the last 3 seasons. Getting a better draft pick than we otherwise would have would be a decent consolation to missing the entire season.

Larry was brilliant with his vision, again. He knew if he could keep O'B that it would position the Pacers to be in a better place for a post lockout draft! :dance:

Kstat
07-03-2011, 03:02 PM
The Cavs would get screwed the most. They had the best record in the entire league the two years prior to losing LeBron.

The Warriors, Kings, Nets and TWolves theoretically would be the big winners the only teams to miss the playoffs each of the last 3 seasons and not be awarded a #1 overall pick.

DGPR
07-03-2011, 03:04 PM
The Cavs would get screwed the most. They had the best record in the entire league the two years prior to losing LeBron.


But they did have the #1 and #4 picks this year so that should even it out.

Kstat
07-03-2011, 03:10 PM
No, being awarded a #1 pick in the past counted against you, not for you. The Cavs would get penalized for that at well.

Theoretically, the Cavs would have one of the lowest odds in the entire league.

Swingman
07-03-2011, 03:24 PM
I think you misunderstood him....he was saying that since they had 2 picks in the top 4 in the 2011 draft that having a bad pick in the next one is only fair.

CooperManning
07-03-2011, 03:27 PM
Yeah, there are definitely flaws, so it will be interesting to see what they do if there's no season. Bobcats are pretty much in tank mode after trading Crash and Jack, but under the NHL system they probably wouldn't get a top 3 pick.

CooperManning
07-03-2011, 03:30 PM
I think you misunderstood him....he was saying that since they had 2 picks in the top 4 in the 2011 draft that having a bad pick in the next one is only fair.

I wouldn't call it "only fair". They had the #1 pick because they were willing to give up Mo Williams and take on Baron Davis' horrible contract. That should have no bearing on their 2012 pick. If not for making the trade they would have just had the #4 pick in the '11 draft.

In fact, the league might not even count the #1 pick last year as the Cavs' pick since it was technically the Clippers'. I'm not sure how that would work out.

Kstat
07-03-2011, 03:31 PM
Under the NHL system anybody could get a top 3 pick.

The Bobcats would be right in the 2nd tier along with the Pistons, Pacers, Suns, and a half dozen other teams that missed the playoffs 2 out of the last 3 years.

judicata
07-03-2011, 04:45 PM
A pick in the top 10 of next year's draft would be amazing for this team. There are so many great guys coming out that we could get pretty close to a sure thing at 10.

There are 4 guys I think would be great fits next to Roy: Long shot blockers in Perry Jones, Anthony Davis, and John Henson, and a banger in Sullinger. I realize Jones might project as a wing, but we'll see.

PacersHomer
07-03-2011, 10:03 PM
Next year's draft could be one for the ages if everyone comes out. Even the number 15 pick could net a solid starter for years.

Sandman21
07-03-2011, 10:28 PM
In fact, the league might not even count the #1 pick last year as the Cavs' pick since it was technically the Clippers'. I'm not sure how that would work out.
It would have to be counted against the Clippers, not Cleveland. That team is so cursed.......:D

Pacersalltheway10
07-04-2011, 02:14 AM
Frozen Envelope Payback. I think this lockout is actually going to be pretty good.

owl
07-04-2011, 08:14 AM
Under the NHL system anybody could get a top 3 pick.

The Bobcats would be right in the 2nd tier along with the Pistons, Pacers, Suns, and a half dozen other teams that missed the playoffs 2 out of the last 3 years.

Maybe the results could be evaluated over 5 years. Or weight the variables differently.

kielbeze
07-04-2011, 10:14 AM
I think All of the teams Presidents should have a three point shootout to determine draft order. Which team would come in second?

pwee31
07-04-2011, 10:55 AM
I think All of the teams Presidents should have a three point shootout to determine draft order. Which team would come in second?

Likely Portland if they hired Chris Mullin?

imbtyler
07-04-2011, 06:18 PM
A "little" excerpt from "An open letter to NBA's players and owners (http://www.nba.com/2011/news/features/david_aldridge/07/04/morning-tip-labor-update/?ls=iref:nbahpt1)" by David Aldridge, from NBA.com:



Nobody Asked Me, But ...

What's up with the Draft next year if we have a year-long lockout?

A lot of people would like to know -- first and foremost, the teams. The 2012 Draft promises to be a spectacular one, with the kind of potential superstars available that were lacking this year. Several prominent college players that would have gone in the top five this year pulled out, and their status for next year is likely to be the same, along with several collegiate big men who will be attractive to teams that didn't take a flier on one of the European bigs this year. And there will also be a crop of incoming college freshmen who could be top-10 or Lottery picks.

All of that, though, is on hold until there's a new CBA.

A league spokesman said via e-mail Friday, "... all our efforts are focused on reaching an agreement and I am not going to speculate on any possible impact on the 2012 NBA Draft."

There is precedent for a league holding a Draft following the cancellation of the preceding season.

The NHL used a weighted Lottery in its 2005 Draft (http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26401), which followed the loss of the entire 2004-05 season due to owner lockout. On July 22, 2005, the league had a "Draft Drawing" in Ottawa. Teams that had missed the playoffs in the previous three completed seasons -- 2001-02, '02-'03 and '03-'04 -- and who hadn't won the first overall pick from 2001-04 were each given three out of the 48 total balls in the Lottery drawing. Four teams received three balls and had a 6.3 percent chance of getting the first pick overall.

Ten teams that had either made the playoffs from 2001-02 through 2003-04 or won the first pick in those years received two out of the 48 balls, good for a 4.2 percent chance of the number one choice. The remaining 16 teams that had met more than one of the criteria received one ball apiece, or a 2.1 percent chance. In the end, the Pittsburgh Penguins -- one of the four teams with three balls -- won the first pick and selected Sidney Crosby.

After the first pick was awarded, the next ball that came from among the 29 remaining teams received the second overall pick. The process continued that way until each of the 30 first-round picks was assigned. Subsequent rounds went in the opposite direction; the club that picked last in the first round picked first in the second round, and so on, with the third round order repeating the first round, the fourth round repeating the second, etc.

Major League Baseball's 1995 Draft, which followed the 1994 season that was cut short by a players' strike that wound up cancelling the postseason, including the World Series, went in inverse order of regular season record when the strike began on August 12. The first pick alternated between the National and American Leagues, based on the reverse order of their Draft position the previous season. Since the Mets had picked first in the 1994 Draft, the (then-) California Angels got the first pick in 1995 and took outfielder Darin Erstad.

If a worst-case scenario takes place this year in the NBA and the whole 2011-12 season is cancelled, the vote here would be for a simple inverse order Draft like MLB's in '95. That means 17-65 Minnesota would get the first pick, 19-63 Cleveland the second pick, and so on. But the Clippers own the Wolves' unprotected first next year. To be fair, that arrangement, as well as any other unprotected firsts, should be honored, with all protected picks carrying over to future years, since there would be no regular season records on which to base their protections.

That would mean, in this scenario, a 2012 Draft following a cancelled 2011-12 regular season would go as follows:

1. L.A. Clippers (unprotected from Minnesota)
2. Cleveland*
3. Toronto
4. Washington
5. Sacramento/New Jersey (coin flip)
6. Sacramento/New Jersey (coin flip)
7. Detroit
8. L.A. Clippers
9. Charlotte
10. Milwaukee
11. Golden State
12. Utah
13. Phoenix
14. Houston
15. Indiana
16. Philadelphia
17. New York
18. Atlanta
19. Memphis/New Orleans (coin flip)
20. Memphis/New Orleans (coin flip)
21. Portland
22. Denver
23. Orlando
24. Oklahoma City
25. Boston
26. Dallas/L.A. Lakers (coin flip)
27. Dallas/L.A. Lakers (coin flip)
28. Miami
29. San Antonio
30. Chicago
* Cavaliers can swap 2012 first-rounders with Miami

1. Nice little breakdown of 2012 Draft situation possibilities.
2. Of course, the Pacers keep the 15th, but with next year's crop of prospects, that's bound to turn into a quality player who can fill a roster spot.
3. For the sake of the Draft alone, I hope the lockout ends early. What college players are going to make the leap to the pro league after a year-long lockout? The fear of a lockout alone scared several players back to school. Drafting during an active lockout will make the 2011 Draft look like "Pick Your Superstar" compared to the scrubs that'll be willing to declare.

If this does happen, though, I'm declaring, and I'll probably go late in the first round.

pacer4ever
07-04-2011, 10:00 PM
I think All of the teams Presidents should have a three point shootout to determine draft order. Which team would come in second?

:laugh:


I don't know if Larry still has it lol

Pacersalltheway10
07-05-2011, 12:01 PM
Why don't they just throw out the lottery system next year and do it based off of records. The Pacers would have the 12th pick if that happened.