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View Full Version : For those who like stats, Interesting look at Pacer lineups



90'sNBARocked
01-12-2011, 11:00 AM
http://www.82games.com/1011/10IND10.HTM


Click on the link

It breaks down all the different line ups and who was clutch

O'Bird
01-12-2011, 12:03 PM
http://www.82games.com/1011/10IND10.HTM


Click on the link

It breaks down all the different line ups and who was clutch

The link takes me to Danny Granger's page. It's one click away to "5-Man Units", which I suspect is what you intended; but those unfamiliar with 82Games might not recognize that.

The sample size is very small, especially when you get away from the regular lineups.

Collison/Dunleavy/Granger/McRoberts/Hibbert have played by far the most minutes together, 239, and they've been a pretty good combination: win% of 57%. When you substitute Rush for Dunleavy in that group, the effectiveness goes way down on both sides of the ball. I should put "goes" in quotes because we're only talking about 98 minutes, hardly worth considering at this point in the season.

Minutes for each combination drop off steeply after that, so any conclusions about chemistry are suspect from these data.

For what it's worth (not much), the best offensive lineup, regardless of minutes:

Ford/Dunleavy/Granger/Hansbrough/Hibbert

The best defensive group is a small lineup:

Ford/Dunleavy/Posey/Granger/S. Jones

.

NuffSaid
01-12-2011, 12:14 PM
Interesting...

The lineup that has the best winning record/winning percentage is:

Lineup #19-Ford, Dunleavy, Granger, Hansborough and Hibbert (5-0, 100%)
Second best:

Lineup #8-Ford, Dunleavy, Posey, Granger, SJones (6-1, 85%)

Third best:

Lineup #6-Collison, Dunleavy, Granger, Hansborough, Hibbert (8-4, 66%) **CORRECTED**

The last lineup is what JOB went with most of last night against the 76ers.

Interesting...

Which lineup do you think the Pacers should use to improve record: Lineup #6, #8 or #19?

O'Bird
01-12-2011, 12:36 PM
Interesting...

Yes, very. But it's also very hard to draw conclusions from the data because of the tiny sample sizes.


Third best:

Lineup #1-Collison, Dunleavy, Granger, Hansborough and Hibbert (11-8, 57%)

The last lineup is what JOB went with most of last night against the 76ers.

You've conflated two different lineups. Lineup #1 is actually Collison/Dunleavy/Granger/McRoberts/Hibbert, and it's not even the fourth best - but the disparity in minutes practically makes it comparing apples/oranges. The third best is lineup #6, which is indeed as you said Collison/Dunleavy/Granger/Hansbrough/Hibbert, but their effectiveness is actually 8-4, which is a win% of 66%.


Which lineup do you think the Pacers should use to iimprove record: Lineup #1, #8 or #19?

Or #6, which seems to be the preferred one right now since McRoberts was demoted.

.

O'Bird
01-12-2011, 12:58 PM
Collison, Dunleavy, Granger, Hansborough and Hibbert ...

... is what JOB went with most of last night against the 76ers.

Which lineup do you think the Pacers should use to improve record...?

That lineup, which has only played a grand total of 44 minutes together, has been very good on both sides of the ball. A lot of people will be surprised (or won't believe) that one of the continuities in the Pacers' excellent team defense has been Mike Dunleavy, and that holds true if you adjust for his opponent's effectiveness.

These data are raw plus/minus; it means more because you're looking at a group, but on the other side means less because there's no accounting for 1) Sample Size; and 2) Opponent Effectiveness. Still interesting, though.

For what it's worth, I love the lineup with Hansbrough starting.

.

Eleazar
01-12-2011, 01:39 PM
Collison/Dunleavy/Granger/McRoberts/Hibbert have played by far the most minutes together, 239, and they've been a pretty good combination: win% of 57%. When you substitute Rush for Dunleavy in that group, the effectiveness goes way down on both sides of the ball. I should put "goes" in quotes because we're only talking about 98 minutes, hardly worth considering at this point in the season.



Considering Rush only gets a lot of minutes when that line-up is playing against someone like Kobe Bryant it shouldn't be a surprise that the "effectiveness" goes down when he plays. I am willing to bet that the effectiveness of that group would be much lower during those times if it was Dunleavy playing instead of Rush.

flox
01-12-2011, 01:46 PM
For mean this helps me settle something I've thought for a while: In our defensive scheme, Brandon Rush is worse than Mike Dunleavy.

Trophy
01-12-2011, 01:58 PM
Brandon's been seeing less time and hasn't started against decent SG lately.

He's scored below 10 points in the past 3 games.

Hopefully he gets back to himself and remains consistent like he's been all season.

Eleazar
01-12-2011, 01:59 PM
For mean this helps me settle something I've thought for a while: In our defensive scheme, Brandon Rush is worse than Mike Dunleavy.

Why? Because they ask Rush to guard better players like Kobe Bryant?

xIndyFan
01-12-2011, 01:59 PM
For mean this helps me settle something I've thought for a while: In our defensive scheme, Brandon Rush is worse than Mike Dunleavy.

i agree that mike's intangibles are under appreciated, but brandon plays against teams that have athletic wings that are too tough for mike to face. wouldn't that make brandon's stats worse and mike's better? it might account for some of the difference between their number.

jhondog28
01-12-2011, 02:08 PM
Rush=apples
Dun=oranges

They both contribute defensively. One is a much better one on one defender and the other is a better team defender. Offensively they are different too. One has the athleticism to drive and shoots very well. The other relies on cuts and motion and also can shoot well. To me this is why our SG/SF position is the deepest on our team.

Dr. Awesome
01-12-2011, 02:08 PM
For mean this helps me settle something I've thought for a while: In our defensive scheme, Brandon Rush is worse than Mike Dunleavy.

Has nothing to do with the fact that Brandon only gets starts when playing a very good SG.

Eleazar
01-12-2011, 02:24 PM
Top 5 offensive units: Off (Min) total +/- (off/def +/-)

Ford-Dunleavy-Granger-Hansbrough-Hibbert 1.52 (15)+14 (+.14)
Ford-Rush-Granger-McRoberts-Hibbert 1.25 (32)+6 (+.06)
Ford-Rush-Posey-Granger-Foster 1.22 (19)+7 (+.22)
Collison-Dunleavy-Posey-Granger-Hibbert 1.18 (56)+14 (+.10)
Collison-Duneleavy-Granger-McRoberts-Hibbert 1.10 (239)+65(+.14)


Top 5 defensive units: Def (Min) total +/- (off/def +/-)

Ford-Dunleavy-Posey-Granger-S.Jones .73 (37)+10 (+.18)
Collison-Rush-Posey-Granger-S.Jones .83 (17)+8 (+.07)
Collison-Dunleavy-Granger-Foster-Hibbert .87 (17)-1 (-.06)
Collison-Dunleavy-Granger-Hansbrough-Hibbert .91 (44)+17 (+.18)
Collison-Dunleavy-Granger-Mcroberts-Hibbert .96 (239)+65 (+.14)
Ford-Rush-Posey-Granger-Hibbert .96 (50)-4 (-.02)

I hope the formatting is clear enough for everyone.

Points per possession top 5

Ford-Rush-Posey-Granger-Foster (+.22)
Ford-Dunleavy-Posey-Granger-S.Jones (+.18)
Collison-Dunleavy-Granger-Hansbrough-Hibbert (+.18)
Collison-Dunleavy-Granger-Mcroberts-Hibbert (+.14)
Ford-Dunleavy-Granger-Hansbrough-Hibbert (+.14)

Without taking into consideration of opponent according to these stats it would suggest that Ford and Posey give this team the best chance to win games.

With all of that said, these stats don't take into consideration opponent. When a player like Rush is constantly playing against tougher competition than Dunleavy his individual +/- and his unit +/- are going to tend to be lower than Dunleavy, especially since he doesn't get a lot of time with similar units as Dunleavy against more average talent like Dunleavy does.

As well right now it appears that Hansbrough is better with the starting line-up, but if you take into consideration the starting line-up with Hans has played 1/5th the amount of time as it has with McRoberts the sample size may point towards something to test, but it is too close to say one is obviously worse than the other. One bad game and the starting line-up with Hans suddenly looks worse than with McRoberts, while 1 great game with McRoberts isn't going to show a significant change in the statistics. After a few more games we are going to have a much better idea of which line-up is actually better.

flox
01-12-2011, 02:46 PM
Why? Because they ask Rush to guard better players like Kobe Bryant?


Has nothing to do with the fact that Brandon only gets starts when playing a very good SG.

Every time I watch him, he plays great man to man defense and gets burned system wise. It's infuriating.

Unclebuck
01-12-2011, 04:08 PM
First time I really looked at this. So two of the top three lineups include Posey? And all three of the top three include Ford. - In fact the top 4 include Ford.

Trophy
01-12-2011, 04:13 PM
It's no question that Brandon is the best, consistent defender on this team and one of the best in the NBA.

Brandon is a really good 1-on-1 defender against players with the ball.

Mike just stays with the player he needs to guard.

Both guys are nearly the same offensively as far as shooting goes.

90'sNBARocked
01-12-2011, 04:33 PM
Every time I watch him, he plays great man to man defense and gets burned system wise. It's infuriating.

Well said, and good point

Brandon is great one on one defender but the "space cadet" in him will see him get burned on back door cuts at least twice a game

90'sNBARocked
01-12-2011, 04:35 PM
First time I really looked at this. So two of the top three lineups include Posey? And all three of the top three include Ford. - In fact the top 4 include Ford.

That shocked me too man. For all the bashing TJ gets here, and a lot of it deserved, I thought that was real interesting

xBulletproof
01-12-2011, 05:13 PM
Those units with Ford have played 15-30 minutes on the floor together the whole year.

Hardly worth noting, really.

daschysta
01-12-2011, 05:24 PM
It's no question that Brandon is the best, consistent defender on this team and one of the best in the NBA.

Brandon is a really good 1-on-1 defender against players with the ball.

Mike just stays with the player he needs to guard.

Both guys are nearly the same offensively as far as shooting goes.

Dun causes things to happen on the offensive end with his consistant movement though, and on this team defense isn't the problem, so mikes offensive contributions are possibly more valuable than brandons defense at the moment.

flox
01-12-2011, 06:14 PM
Why? Because they ask Rush to guard better players like Kobe Bryant?


i agree that mike's intangibles are under appreciated, but brandon plays against teams that have athletic wings that are too tough for mike to face. wouldn't that make brandon's stats worse and mike's better? it might account for some of the difference between their number.


So I went back, and I looked at the data, and I found that Rush holds opposing shooting guards to a lower eFG% (.440 vs .484). However, unit wise, the starters + Rush do worse vs the season starters + Dunleavy, with eFGA becoming .481 vs .397. (lineup is Collison-Dunleavy/Rush-Granger-McRoberts-Hibbert). This trend even holds with new starting lineups (Collison-Dunleavy/Rush-Granger-Hansbrough-Hibbert), as with Rush our eFGA% is .527 Another thing to note here is net FTA (our FTA vs there FTA), as we are -17 with Dunleavy and -32 with Rush using old starters, but +8 Rush and -11 Dunleavy with new starters. Rush's per 48 fouls is 3.5, while Dunleavy's is 3.2, and opposing SG FTA is 6.1 for Rush, and 4.4 for Dunleavy. Opposing SG iFG (% of FG's taken inside) is 17%. Rush's Defensive Points given up per 100 possesions is 106.7, while Dunleavy's is 101.9.
This suggests one of two things:
A: Rush is playing against stronger opposing scoring teams, and that is why they shoot higher, even though his man is covered and shoots worse (supported by old starters FTA, and mildly by eFG%, opposing SG FTA)
B: Rush plays good one on one defense, but the rest of the unit suffers because his team defense is worse (supported by eFGA%, iFG%, foul rate)



I can't think of any other viable alternatives. Help here would be appreciated.


Something I find significant (although I don't know how to explain why) is rebounding % when Rush and Dun are substituted, Dun tends to have a much higher rebounding %, except for with new starters.

Sookie
01-12-2011, 06:25 PM
So I went back, and I looked at the data, and I found that Rush holds opposing shooting guards to a lower eFG% (.440 vs .484). However, unit wise, the starters + Rush do worse vs the season starters + Dunleavy, with eFGA becoming .481 vs .397. (lineup is Collison-Dunleavy/Rush-Granger-McRoberts-Hibbert). This trend even holds with new starting lineups (Collison-Dunleavy/Rush-Granger-Hansbrough-Hibbert), as with Rush our eFGA% is .527 Another thing to note here is net FTA (our FTA vs there FTA), as we are -17 with Dunleavy and -32 with Rush using old starters, but +8 Rush and -11 Dunleavy with new starters. Rush's per 48 fouls is 3.5, while Dunleavy's is 3.2, and opposing SG FTA is 6.1 for Rush, and 4.4 for Dunleavy. Opposing SG iFG (% of FG's taken inside) is 17%. Rush's Defensive Points given up per 100 possesions is 106.7, while Dunleavy's is 101.9.
This suggests one of two things:
A: Rush is playing against stronger opposing scoring teams, and that is why they shoot higher, even though his man is covered and shoots worse (supported by old starters FTA, and mildly by eFG%, opposing SG FTA)
B: Rush plays good one on one defense, but the rest of the unit suffers because his team defense is worse (supported by eFGA%, iFG%, foul rate)



I can't think of any other viable alternatives. Help here would be appreciated.


Something I find significant (although I don't know how to explain why) is rebounding % when Rush and Dun are substituted, Dun tends to have a much higher rebounding %, except for with new starters.

well, we know that Rush starts when we are playing a superstar level wing.

Dun starts otherwise. Doesn't that answer the question?

Dr. Awesome
01-12-2011, 06:36 PM
Its minds boggling seeing people try to make the argument that Dunleavy is a better defender than Rush.

flox
01-12-2011, 06:43 PM
well, we know that Rush starts when we are playing a superstar level wing.

Dun starts otherwise. Doesn't that answer the question?

If it was so open and shut would I be asking these questions?

pacer4ever
01-12-2011, 11:21 PM
Rush was the 1st best wing defender in the NBA last yr. u are wrong flox. I bet Dunleavy isnt in the top 100 in defense.


http://hickory-high.com/2010/07/01/i-owe-brandon-rush-an-apology/

xIndyFan
01-12-2011, 11:34 PM
Something I find significant (although I don't know how to explain why) is rebounding % when Rush and Dun are substituted, Dun tends to have a much higher rebounding %, except for with new starters.

mike tends to stay back and rebound more than brandon, i think. brandon fast breaks more. plus mike sags off his man more into the paint to help rebound. brandon is more active defensively on his man and therefore more out of position to rebound.

haven't looked at the stats, but brandon seems to be rebounding less this year than past. mike seems to be trying to rebound more.

O'Bird
01-13-2011, 01:59 AM
brandon is more active defensively on his man and therefore more out of position to rebound.

That doesn't follow at all, and in fact in the Pacers' defense everyone should be on the right side of his man when the shot goes up.


haven't looked at the stats, but brandon seems to be rebounding less this year than past. mike seems to be trying to rebound more.

Well, you're right on both counts, only comparing this year to last (Mike isn't merely "trying" to rebound more, he is rebounding more), though the difference isn't great; I guess I should just congratulate you, because there are few people who could notice a difference like that.

This year, Mike's defensive rebrate is 17.0 (13th among rotation wings) and Brandon's is 11.3 (way down the list). By the way, James Posey, at 17.6, is ninth among rotation wings; he's perennially among the leaders, and has finished first in years past.

Mike's defense has been outstanding on an excellent defensive team, and it's great to see him be a leader out there, showing the young guys how to play. He's been the Pacers' best player in many ways. The impressive last three minutes of the Philly game had both Dunleavy and Rush on the floor. Obviously Jim O'Brien trusts both of them.

:

Taterhead
01-13-2011, 04:02 AM
So I went back, and I looked at the data, and I found that Rush holds opposing shooting guards to a lower eFG% (.440 vs .484). However, unit wise, the starters + Rush do worse vs the season starters + Dunleavy, with eFGA becoming .481 vs .397. (lineup is Collison-Dunleavy/Rush-Granger-McRoberts-Hibbert). This trend even holds with new starting lineups (Collison-Dunleavy/Rush-Granger-Hansbrough-Hibbert), as with Rush our eFGA% is .527 Another thing to note here is net FTA (our FTA vs there FTA), as we are -17 with Dunleavy and -32 with Rush using old starters, but +8 Rush and -11 Dunleavy with new starters. Rush's per 48 fouls is 3.5, while Dunleavy's is 3.2, and opposing SG FTA is 6.1 for Rush, and 4.4 for Dunleavy. Opposing SG iFG (% of FG's taken inside) is 17%. Rush's Defensive Points given up per 100 possesions is 106.7, while Dunleavy's is 101.9.
This suggests one of two things:
A: Rush is playing against stronger opposing scoring teams, and that is why they shoot higher, even though his man is covered and shoots worse (supported by old starters FTA, and mildly by eFG%, opposing SG FTA)
B: Rush plays good one on one defense, but the rest of the unit suffers because his team defense is worse (supported by eFGA%, iFG%, foul rate)



I can't think of any other viable alternatives. Help here would be appreciated.


Something I find significant (although I don't know how to explain why) is rebounding % when Rush and Dun are substituted, Dun tends to have a much higher rebounding %, except for with new starters.


Stats lie flox.

Dunleavy gets the easiest defensive assignment and has much less pressure on him. While Brandon Rush is chasing around Dwayne Wade, Mike is over in the corner camped out on James Jones. There is a huge clue.

Goofy stats are thrown around this board all the time. They are almost always meaningless.


That doesn't follow at all, and in fact in the Pacers' defense everyone should be on the right side of his man when the shot goes up.



Well, you're right on both counts, only comparing this year to last (Mike isn't merely "trying" to rebound more, he is rebounding more), though the difference isn't great; I guess I should just congratulate you, because there are few people who could notice a difference like that.

This year, Mike's defensive rebrate is 17.0 (13th among rotation wings) and Brandon's is 11.3 (way down the list). By the way, James Posey, at 17.6, is ninth among rotation wings; he's perennially among the leaders, and has finished first in years past.

Mike's defense has been outstanding on an excellent defensive team, and it's great to see him be a leader out there, showing the young guys how to play. He's been the Pacers' best player in many ways. The impressive last three minutes of the Philly game had both Dunleavy and Rush on the floor. Obviously Jim O'Brien trusts both of them.

:


Dunleavy is much more able to roam and get into rebounding position because he is guarding a role player vs. the best offensive wing on the opposing team. Brandon has to challenge more shots, and he is usually further away from the basket than Mike.

koVe
01-13-2011, 05:14 AM
This looks like yet another set of stats that make people draw bad conclusions.

I think it's pretty clear Rush is a better defender and is going to be defending the best wing out there whenever he's playing. When Dunleavy's in, he'll be covering the worst.

Dunleavy's also free to roam more since he's covering a lesser threat, so I think his block shots, defensive rebounding, and steals are probably better as well. Wouldn't surprise me if Dunleavy is a better rebounder, but I don't think you can look at the stats to show that when they clearly have different roles on defense.

Eleazar
01-13-2011, 05:20 AM
This looks like yet another set of stats that make people draw bad conclusions.

I think it's pretty clear Rush is a better defender and is going to be defending the best wing out there whenever he's playing. When Dunleavy's in, he'll be covering the worst.

Dunleavy's also free to roam more since he's covering a lesser threat, so I think his block shots, defensive rebounding, and steals are probably better as well. Wouldn't surprise me if Dunleavy is a better rebounder, but I don't think you can look at the stats to show that when they clearly have different roles on defense.

Exactly, stats are good tools, but they don't tell the whole story.

Mackey_Rose
01-13-2011, 06:16 AM
By the way, James Posey, at 17.6, is ninth among rotation wings; he's perennially among the leaders, and has finished first in years past.

By the way, James Posey is not a wing, and hasn't played a wing position more than a meaningless few minutes all year.

O'Bird
01-13-2011, 09:01 AM
By the way, James Posey is not a wing, and hasn't played a wing position more than a meaningless few minutes all year.

It's actually a good point. His defensive rebound rates and size (and ability to defend larger players) have made it possible in the last few years to use him as a 4, most famously in game 4 of the 2008 Finals. Like Duncan still being listed as a forward by the NBA (which will likely affect the makeup of the West All-Star team), the label doesn't match the contents.

And, as long as we're doing "by the ways", he's one of the perennial league leaders among all players in charges drawn, another factor that's helped his playing time in Indiana - whether he "is" a small forward or not.

.

O'Bird
01-13-2011, 10:41 AM
Stats lie flox.
...
Goofy stats are thrown around this board all the time. They are almost always meaningless.

Everybody: don't forget that we're talking about RAW plus/minus, and we're talking about TEAM defense. Taterhead's contention that stats are "almost always meaningless" is rhetoric, and we shouldn't take it literally - but we should be careful how we use them and what they are really telling us. Likewise, of course stats don't lie, but people overinterpret them.

Raw plus/minus works better for team units, it's true, but doesn't control for what players are on the opposition; obviously the starters (as in lineup #1, not incidentally) have got to contend with better opposition. For those interested, BasketballValue has a useful approach to that problem, though I can't vouch for the math, it being, as our grandfathers liked to say, above my pay grade.

I hope that I made the point earlier that the sample size is too small, probably even for lineup #1.


Dunleavy is much more able to roam and get into rebounding position because he is guarding a role player vs. the best offensive wing on the opposing team. Brandon has to challenge more shots, and he is usually further away from the basket than Mike.

Not good enough as an explanation, though it's surely a good thing that you're trying to sort this out and understand what's happening on the floor. At some point you're just going to have to put your assumptions aside and look at video over and over and over to really see what's going on.

Sometimes I'm not sure why I'm still posting on this board, as so many posters simply make things up, with no connection to reality at all - really, it's breathtaking, but what's unbelievable is how vehement people get about their fantasies.

The TEAM rebounds less well with Brandon in, on both boards, no matter where he is on the floor or what his assignment is. He needs to do better.

Once again: the Pacers' defense is designed to create a cordon around the rebounding area, and if it's executed right they should be rebounding every ball. It's not a coincidence that the (much) better defensive execution this season goes along with very good TEAM defensive rebounding.

For me this is not an argument about Dunleavy vs. Brandon Rush, and I don't have a horse in that race (speaking of grandfatherly metaphors). I love watching Mike Dunleavy play basketball, including his defense. He's a leader in so many ways - always in the right place, always calm and focused, always playing the team game. He's been through some rough things in the last three years with the knee and rehab, and it's really fantastic to see him playing defense at the level he is; you could certainly not have predicted that two years ago, and the uptick in his rebounding is just one part of it.

flox
01-13-2011, 05:11 PM
Stats lie flox.

Dunleavy gets the easiest defensive assignment and has much less pressure on him. While Brandon Rush is chasing around Dwayne Wade, Mike is over in the corner camped out on James Jones. There is a huge clue.

Goofy stats are thrown around this board all the time. They are almost always meaningless.
.
As O'Bird this is probably a case of sample size too small.

Rush was the 1st best wing defender in the NBA last yr. u are wrong flox. I bet Dunleavy isnt in the top 100 in defense.


http://hickory-high.com/2010/07/01/i-owe-brandon-rush-an-apology/

I don't care about his man to man defense- it could be fantastic for all I care and be the best all time.

But if he can't learn how to be a system defender it means nothing. I don't think this team can get away with playing man to man.