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View Full Version : Pacers vs Spurs Advanced Scouting (48MoH)



flox
01-07-2011, 02:12 PM
http://www.48minutesofhell.com/spurs-stats-advanced-scouting-san-antonio-spurs-indiana-pacers#more-12257

Items of note:




Roy Hibbert is an emerging as one of the better post threats in the league. He has scored more points from the blocks than all except Howard, Aldridge, Brook Lopez and Pau Gasol. His 0.91 points per post possession (PPP) place him in the 56% percentile. Zydrunas Ilgauskas is the only current NBA starter that can match the 7-2 Hibbert in terms of height.

Roy Hibbert is shooting just above 25% on jump shots this season. Last year, he made merely 32% of such field goals. (This is surprising considering that Hibbert has converted well over 70% of his free throws in both seasons.) Despite this poor conversion rate, nearly half of Hibbert attempts are jumpers.

One thing that may help the Spurs prevent easy scores for Hibbert is Hibbertís tendency to not pass out of the post. Despite being a decent passer for a big man, he has only created opportunities for teammates on 10% of his post derived possessions this year. (League average is 17%.)


The Pacers have a very good defensive team. They have allowed fewer transition scores than every team except the Magic (1 point fewer than the Spurs). They donít allow many easy baskets and they typically defend the pick and roll well.

No doubt, Roy Hibbert provides significant value to his teamís defensive results. He averages nearly 2 blocks in 29 MPG and his size certainly alters additional attempts. Opponents have also struggled against him in the post. However, Hibbert has yet to excel at defending the pick and roll. Last year, opponents averaged 1.02 PPP when Hibbert defended them (32nd percentile). This season he has allowed 1.12 PPP (12th percentile).

Another interesting thing to note is that the Spurs are currently 27th in the league at defending the three point line. I'm trying to figure out the article where I read that and a few other ways to attack the Spurs defense, but I just haven't been able to find it.

Doddage
01-07-2011, 02:16 PM
Solution to Hibbert shooting jumpers poorly: stop having him shoot jumpers. Play him in the damn post.

flox
01-07-2011, 02:29 PM
Solution to Hibbert shooting jumpers poorly: stop having him shoot jumpers. Play him in the damn post.

The question is how does he establish solid position in the post without getting pushed around- as has been the case recently?

Another question: Is Hibbert's effectiveness in the post a result of him only choosing good opportunities in playing in the post- or just an overall barometer of his individual success in the post regardless of situation?

Doddage
01-07-2011, 02:39 PM
The question is how does he establish solid position in the post without getting pushed around- as has been the case recently?

Another question: Is Hibbert's effectiveness in the post a result of him only choosing good opportunities in playing in the post- or just an overall barometer of his individual success in the post regardless of situation?
His post game is definitely a work in progress, but it won't get any better unless he keeps working on it, success or failure. He's not working on it when he's shooting jumpers outside the paint. The Pacers' success pretty much depends on how well he's operating in the post.

flox
01-07-2011, 03:19 PM
His post game is definitely a work in progress, but it won't get any better unless he keeps working on it, success or failure. He's not working on it when he's shooting jumpers outside the paint. The Pacers' success pretty much depends on how well he's operating in the post.

Fair enough. I just wish we knew the answer as to how to get Hibbert into the low post- it seems like a lot of teams are countering and just letting him play outside.

pacer4ever
01-07-2011, 03:59 PM
I've been saying forever we dont need Roy taking 20 ft jump shot not a high % shot.

Peck
01-07-2011, 04:26 PM
Guy's there is nothing wrong with mixing it up. Pat Ewing was money from 17 feet on the baseline making him a b!tch to guard. I don't mind Roy putting up a shot from outside on occasion just to keep the defense honest.

However the biggest problem is that other teams have learned to keep Roy off of the box in the lane.

This is due to the fact that Roy has a very high center of gravity & little to no lower body strength.

Someone somewhere somehow has got to teach Roy to overcome this.

Unclebuck
01-07-2011, 04:31 PM
Guy's there is nothing wrong with mixing it up. Pat Ewing was money from 17 feet on the baseline making him a b!tch to guard. I don't mind Roy putting up a shot from outside on occasion just to keep the defense honest.

However the biggest problem is that other teams have learned to keep Roy off of the box in the lane.

This is due to the fact that Roy has a very high center of gravity & little to no lower body strength.

Someone somewhere somehow has got to teach Roy to overcome this.

He is actually a lot like Rik Smits in that regard. Both had similar problems: 1) getting low post position and 2) being able to receive the ball even when they are able to get low post position.

number two has nothing to do with the hands of either Smits of Roy - it just seems as though Roy and Rik both are/were easy to front, easy to knock the ball away........regardless in each case it is difficult to get the ball to them in decent position. Rik in his later years became more and more of a pick and pop player.

I remember the pacers having some very creative plays in order to get Rik the ball in the low post, but we don't run those with Roy.

I'm not sure if Roy can be taught how to do what you are suggesting, maybe he can become better at it, but I think it will always be a problem for him as it was for Rik

flox
01-07-2011, 04:31 PM
Guy's there is nothing wrong with mixing it up. Pat Ewing was money from 17 feet on the baseline making him a b!tch to guard. I don't mind Roy putting up a shot from outside on occasion just to keep the defense honest.

However the biggest problem is that other teams have learned to keep Roy off of the box in the lane.

This is due to the fact that Roy has a very high center of gravity & little to no lower body strength.

Someone somewhere somehow has got to teach Roy to overcome this.

If not- we have to find someone else who can do that and make it easier for Roy to get into the post. I don't think we have anyone else who is capable of a post score other than Hansborough. I don't think Hans is the answer.

Hicks
01-07-2011, 04:32 PM
Why not set plays that boil down to the ball being reversed while simultaneously the PF screens Roy's man so Roy can cut across the paint to where the ball is being reversed, where it is promptly fed to him?

Unclebuck
01-07-2011, 04:39 PM
Why not set plays that boil down to the ball being reversed while simultaneously the PF screens Roy's man so Roy can cut across the paint to where the ball is being reversed, where it is promptly fed to him?

That would help. Also a good way to get the big man good position is to start with a pick and roll that doesn't involve Roy, but it is used simply to get the defense on the move and to create a misdirection so Roy can get position and the ball more easily. In geranl the ball needs to move from side to side sop the angle is correct. First rule should be if the ball stops moving as we are trying to get the ball inside to Roy that is always is immediately reversed and Roy either goes to high post or low post on other side of lane.

Pacers used to run a play back in the late 90's where Reggie would in effect curl around Rik who was stationed in the low post - it was effective because it made the big guy be in help position or Reggie could curl around Rik into the lane and get an easy shot - we could certainly run that play with either Mike or Danny and I think it would be effective.

Hicks, the only problem with running a big on big pick and the reason why most teams don't run a big man big man screen is because it is easy to switch for the defense. Watch the Jazz, they have their point guard pick across the lane and that doesn't allow the defense to switch because they don't want their point guard guarding a big in the low post

flox
01-07-2011, 04:41 PM
Why not set plays that boil down to the ball being reversed while simultaneously the PF screens Roy's man so Roy can cut across the paint to where the ball is being reversed, where it is promptly fed to him?

I think this play might work for a little bit, but they can counter it pretty easily if they have a power forward that can switch and outmuscle Hibbert and make him lose position in the post.

In addition I think foot speed and personnel are factors as well.

pacer4ever
01-07-2011, 04:43 PM
I think this play might work for a little bit, but they can counter it pretty easily if they have a power forward that can switch and outmuscle Hibbert and make him lose position in the post.

In addition I think foot speed and personnel are factors as well.

Ya i agree with this. I think that is why Roy needs to bulk up so he doesnt get shoved around inside. He needs to be the one who out muscles others.

Unclebuck
01-07-2011, 04:44 PM
I wished we had more of these type of discussions instead of either a stats overload or a discussion of just how bad O'Brien is. Seems like we used to have a lot more of these type threads. T-Birds been gone for awhile though

Unclebuck
01-07-2011, 04:46 PM
Ya i agree with this. I think that is why Roy needs to bulk up so he doesnt get shoved around inside. He needs to be the one who out muscles others.

I would disagree with that. That would make him too bulky and not as mobile. Plus he'll never have the low center of gravity and broad shoulders it takes to get low post position that way. He'll never be able to muscle others

pacer4ever
01-07-2011, 04:49 PM
I would disagree with that. That would make him too bulky and not as mobile. Plus he'll never have the low center of gravity and broad shoulders it takes to get low post position that way. He'll never be able to muscle others

He really doesnt use his moblity to much I would like us to run my PnR with him if he is gonna stay lean. But he said early this season he is thinking about bulking up for next season. I just think ethier way we have to play to his stregth more and that is feeding him in the post and not shooting too many mid-range jumpers.

pacer4ever
01-07-2011, 04:49 PM
I wished we had more of these type of discussions instead of either a stats overload and a discussion of just how bad O'Brien is. Seems like we used to have a lot more of these type threads. T-Birds been gone for awhile though

me 2

flox
01-07-2011, 04:54 PM
I'm not sure if I want Hibbert to get slower. The data already suggests that he's poor at the PnR.

Ideally we just find the 4 that can play PnR with Collison and also play in the paint and can command enough attention that Hibbert has an easier time in the post.

beast23
01-07-2011, 05:11 PM
I'm not sure if I want Hibbert to get slower. The data already suggests that he's poor at the PnR.

Ideally we just find the 4 that can play PnR with Collison and also play in the paint and can command enough attention that Hibbert has an easier time in the post.Definitely. Presently, we don't have a 4 that commands enough attention in the paint to free up Hibbert.

Perhaps we will see that tonight with the use of Hansbrough. Hansbrough is a decent midrange shooter and does a very good job of keeping the ball alive on the offensive glass. I think most teams would counter that by focusing a little more on him than they would on McRoberts.

D-BONE
01-07-2011, 05:21 PM
If RH could consistently hit the midrange shot- say 14-18 ft - that would be a major weapon for us. It does not have to take away from his post opportunities. The two can complement each other.

If he can do this, it becomes difficult for opponent's to match him with someone of his size. Plus, I think UB's Smits comparison is a good one, and we know that the Smit's shooting ability really created a dimension that allowed him to achieve the level of play he did.

As the scouting report notes, his FT shooting would indicate he can develop an effective midrange game. Then, if you locate a strong offensive post 4, they work even better together.

flox
01-07-2011, 05:25 PM
Definitely. Presently, we don't have a 4 that commands enough attention in the paint to free up Hibbert.

Perhaps we will see that tonight with the use of Hansbrough. Hansbrough is a decent midrange shooter and does a very good job of keeping the ball alive on the offensive glass. I think most teams would counter that by focusing a little more on him than they would on McRoberts.
Yes, I agree on that. I don't know if Hans is the right answer long term- I don't think he is, but that seems like something that we could see more of tonight and should help us in the immediate future. Also, I feel like tonight is one of those nights were I'd want Granger at the 4 for offense definitely but definitely not on the defensive end until they ran 4 shooters and a center.


If RH could consistently hit the midrange shot- say 14-18 ft - that would be a major weapon for us. It does not have to take away from his post opportunities. The two can complement each other.

If he can do this, it becomes difficult for opponent's to match him with someone of his size. Plus, I think UB's Smits comparison is a good one, and we know that the Smit's shooting ability really created a dimension that allowed him to achieve the level of play he did.

As the scouting report notes, his FT shooting would indicate he can develop an effective midrange game. Then, if you locate a strong offensive post 4, they work even better together.

Very much agreed with this post.

pacer4ever
01-07-2011, 05:26 PM
If RH could consistently hit the midrange shot- say 14-18 ft - that would be a major weapon for usBut he can't hopefully he works on it. It would make life easier for himself and the whole team. It does not have to take away from his post opportunities. The two can complement each other.

If he can do this, it becomes difficult for opponent's to match him with someone of his size. Plus, I think UB's Smits comparison is a good one, and we know that the Smit's shooting ability really created a dimension that allowed him to achieve the level of play he did.

As the scouting report notes, his FT shooting would indicate he can develop an effective midrange game. Then, if you locate a strong offensive post 4, they work even better together.
.

pacer4ever
01-07-2011, 05:28 PM
I'm not sure if I want Hibbert to get slower. The data already suggests that he's poor at the PnR.

Ideally we just find the 4 that can play PnR with Collison and also play in the paint and can command enough attention that Hibbert has an easier time in the post.

I agree with this a ton. If we get a solid PnR 4 player that would make Hibberts life so much easier. A David West type Hibberts game would go to another level.