http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=17704
By: Jason Fleming
By: Jason Fleming
When predictions are made this time of year for the upcoming NBA season they almost always are optimistic because people generally seem to look for the positive in things, but the harsh reality is most teams won't meet the expectations set out for them in October. In the end, only one team gets hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy, marking them as the ones who truly fulfilled all promise.
That doesn't mean everyone else is a failure, because improvement and success is all relative to expectations. This is about the reality of those expectations, about which players and teams seem to have a lot on their shoulders, perhaps more so than logic dictates.
With that in mind, let's take a look at a few teams and players where the general expectation seems to be asking just a bit too much of their skills. These teams, relative to the burden of hope placed on them, are being primed to fail in 2010-11.
TEAMS
Oklahoma City Thunder: Before Thunder fans get too worked up, keep in mind the parameters: are the expectations too high? Predictions with the Thunder as the Northwest Division champions and reaching the Western Conference Finals are rampant, but how realistic is that? The normal progression of a championship contender is to make further progress each season. Remember, this team as currently built has yet to win a playoff series, so to just skip over winning one series and assume they win two is a little presumptuous. The Thunder will still be a very good team and the way the team has been built should be the prototype for any rebuilding franchise, but let's see them win one series before assuming they are a conference contender.
Atlanta Hawks: The Atlanta Hawks think they have a team ready to make the step beyond the second round of the playoffs. Some have predicted they will do exactly that; however, I just don't see it happening. The Hawks are essentially bringing back the exact same team from last season with regards to core personnel, are likely in transition at the point guard position from Mike Bibby to second-year guard Jeff Teague, and play in the same division as the Orlando Magic, Miami HEAT, much-improved Washington Wizards, and the Charlotte Bobcats, who made the playoffs a season ago. Is that a recipe for a team to make the Eastern Conference Finals, or rather a recipe for a step backwards? You tell me.
Dallas Mavericks: Every season the Dallas Mavericks make major changes and the preseason buzz is about how they will be a championship contender. Every season – barring the Finals loss to the HEAT a few years back – they are proven wrong. This season will be no different, despite the changes being not as drastic as previous summers. The only real change to the Mavericks' rotation is adding Tyson Chandler as the backup center and moving Shawn Marion to the bench. Is that a recipe to challenge the Los Angeles Lakers? Is that even enough to win the Southwest Division? Definitely maybe.
Milwaukee Bucks: After a superb second half to the 2009-10 regular season and a feisty first-round series that went seven games against the Atlanta Hawks expectations are high for the Bucks. In the Central Division the Cleveland Cavaliers figure to take a step backwards without LeBron James, the Detroit Pistons are rebuilding, the Indiana Pacers are flawed, and the Chicago Bulls are kind of a wild card. That has left the Bucks as the team many have picked to win the division (at least, those who haven't chosen the Bulls). Are they really that good? They depend heavily on players who are only slightly better than average. Corey Maggette can score but can't defend. John Salmons can score but can't defend. Drew Gooden is a bona fide journeyman who can rebound but can't actually defend. Second-year stud point guard Brandon Jennings isn't much of a defender either. Given the team is coached by Scott Skiles, a coach who preaches defense and has a history of wearing out his welcome after a couple seasons, the Bucks seem more primed for implosion rather than a division championship.
PLAYERS
Darren Collison, Indiana Pacers: Collison will be an excellent point guard for the Pacers, but he isn't a franchise savior. When the Pacers made the move to acquire Collison – by trading out power forward Troy Murphy – many assumed they had filled their biggest need and could start moving forward. The problem is they simply created another hole at the four. In addition, their other starters – Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy, Josh McRoberts, and Roy Hibbert – are not defensive-minded players. Collison will turn in a ton of assists and may even score pretty well, but until the Pacers start playing some semblance of defense the results won't be any different than last season.
Channing Frye, Phoenix Suns: At $1.9 million – the amount Frye earned in 2009-10 – he was a steal. That amount for 11.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 44% shooting from three-point range, and almost a block a game is a solid investment. In the offseason the Suns rewarded him with a deal almost commensurate to the Mid-Level Exception, even though his numbers dropped as the season went on last year. Now, at the new dollar amount of $5.2 million the expectations will be raised, yet it's doubtful Frye will contribute any more than he did the season before. And with Amar'e Stoudemire in New York, his shortcomings may be magnified.
Amir Johnson, Toronto Raptors: Every season we hear about how much Amir Johnson does in the minutes he is on the floor. And yes, those numbers do look good – but the counter to that argument is why has he played only 15.2 minutes per game in 217 career games over five years if he really is that good? Veterans at his position has been one reason (in Detroit and Toronto) and so has personal fouls (for his career he averages six fouls about every 34 minutes, which would make it hard to keep him in the game for meaningful minutes). This season in Toronto, with Chris Bosh now in Miami, Johnson will be the starting power forward and many are predicting a blossoming from the sixth-year forward who never went to college before the NBA. He's never played more than 17.7 minutes a game in any season – are the expectations on Johnson really fair? Perhaps they should be tempered to something along the lines of can he stay on the floor long enough to be productive.
That doesn't mean everyone else is a failure, because improvement and success is all relative to expectations. This is about the reality of those expectations, about which players and teams seem to have a lot on their shoulders, perhaps more so than logic dictates.
With that in mind, let's take a look at a few teams and players where the general expectation seems to be asking just a bit too much of their skills. These teams, relative to the burden of hope placed on them, are being primed to fail in 2010-11.
TEAMS
Oklahoma City Thunder: Before Thunder fans get too worked up, keep in mind the parameters: are the expectations too high? Predictions with the Thunder as the Northwest Division champions and reaching the Western Conference Finals are rampant, but how realistic is that? The normal progression of a championship contender is to make further progress each season. Remember, this team as currently built has yet to win a playoff series, so to just skip over winning one series and assume they win two is a little presumptuous. The Thunder will still be a very good team and the way the team has been built should be the prototype for any rebuilding franchise, but let's see them win one series before assuming they are a conference contender.
Atlanta Hawks: The Atlanta Hawks think they have a team ready to make the step beyond the second round of the playoffs. Some have predicted they will do exactly that; however, I just don't see it happening. The Hawks are essentially bringing back the exact same team from last season with regards to core personnel, are likely in transition at the point guard position from Mike Bibby to second-year guard Jeff Teague, and play in the same division as the Orlando Magic, Miami HEAT, much-improved Washington Wizards, and the Charlotte Bobcats, who made the playoffs a season ago. Is that a recipe for a team to make the Eastern Conference Finals, or rather a recipe for a step backwards? You tell me.
Dallas Mavericks: Every season the Dallas Mavericks make major changes and the preseason buzz is about how they will be a championship contender. Every season – barring the Finals loss to the HEAT a few years back – they are proven wrong. This season will be no different, despite the changes being not as drastic as previous summers. The only real change to the Mavericks' rotation is adding Tyson Chandler as the backup center and moving Shawn Marion to the bench. Is that a recipe to challenge the Los Angeles Lakers? Is that even enough to win the Southwest Division? Definitely maybe.
Milwaukee Bucks: After a superb second half to the 2009-10 regular season and a feisty first-round series that went seven games against the Atlanta Hawks expectations are high for the Bucks. In the Central Division the Cleveland Cavaliers figure to take a step backwards without LeBron James, the Detroit Pistons are rebuilding, the Indiana Pacers are flawed, and the Chicago Bulls are kind of a wild card. That has left the Bucks as the team many have picked to win the division (at least, those who haven't chosen the Bulls). Are they really that good? They depend heavily on players who are only slightly better than average. Corey Maggette can score but can't defend. John Salmons can score but can't defend. Drew Gooden is a bona fide journeyman who can rebound but can't actually defend. Second-year stud point guard Brandon Jennings isn't much of a defender either. Given the team is coached by Scott Skiles, a coach who preaches defense and has a history of wearing out his welcome after a couple seasons, the Bucks seem more primed for implosion rather than a division championship.
PLAYERS
Darren Collison, Indiana Pacers: Collison will be an excellent point guard for the Pacers, but he isn't a franchise savior. When the Pacers made the move to acquire Collison – by trading out power forward Troy Murphy – many assumed they had filled their biggest need and could start moving forward. The problem is they simply created another hole at the four. In addition, their other starters – Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy, Josh McRoberts, and Roy Hibbert – are not defensive-minded players. Collison will turn in a ton of assists and may even score pretty well, but until the Pacers start playing some semblance of defense the results won't be any different than last season.
Channing Frye, Phoenix Suns: At $1.9 million – the amount Frye earned in 2009-10 – he was a steal. That amount for 11.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 44% shooting from three-point range, and almost a block a game is a solid investment. In the offseason the Suns rewarded him with a deal almost commensurate to the Mid-Level Exception, even though his numbers dropped as the season went on last year. Now, at the new dollar amount of $5.2 million the expectations will be raised, yet it's doubtful Frye will contribute any more than he did the season before. And with Amar'e Stoudemire in New York, his shortcomings may be magnified.
Amir Johnson, Toronto Raptors: Every season we hear about how much Amir Johnson does in the minutes he is on the floor. And yes, those numbers do look good – but the counter to that argument is why has he played only 15.2 minutes per game in 217 career games over five years if he really is that good? Veterans at his position has been one reason (in Detroit and Toronto) and so has personal fouls (for his career he averages six fouls about every 34 minutes, which would make it hard to keep him in the game for meaningful minutes). This season in Toronto, with Chris Bosh now in Miami, Johnson will be the starting power forward and many are predicting a blossoming from the sixth-year forward who never went to college before the NBA. He's never played more than 17.7 minutes a game in any season – are the expectations on Johnson really fair? Perhaps they should be tempered to something along the lines of can he stay on the floor long enough to be productive.