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View Full Version : Basketball Prospectus Projects 50-Loss Season For Indiana Pacers



90'sNBARocked
10-08-2010, 11:30 AM
http://www.indycornrows.com/2010/10/7/1737488/basketball-prospectus-projects-50-loss-season-for-indiana-pacers
By Tom Lewis at indy Cornrows


The boys from Basketball Prospectus have released their must-read preview for the upcoming NBA season. The Pro Basketball Prospectus 2010-11 is the gift that keeps on giving and a reference you'll want to have handy throughout the NBA season.

Bradford Doolittle and Pacers' consultant, Kevin Pelton have put together a thorough look at each team and player using their statistical analysis to project the expected performance. For the Pacers, they even break out their Loyalty Factor (LOY) to show that despite the reputation of the state, Indiana fans haven't been so loyal to the blue and gold since 2002.

As for the team this year, for obvious reasons, Pelton recused himself from analyzing the Pacers for the book, but Doolittle puts out a very interesting read which projects a 29-53 record for the Pacers. He admits though, that with so many young and untested players, anaylyzing past numbers it tough, so projecting their success this year leaves lots of room for surprises.

SCHOENE foresees another 50-loss season for Indiana, but there is the potential to surprise given the number of young players in featured roles. This could not only kickstart a flagging franchise and energize a shrinking fan base, but the likelihood of a continually evolving roster could make things downright exciting in Indy. With all the money coming off the books, things are looking up, but the clock is ticking.
No doubt, projecting Josh McRoberts, Roy Hibbert and Darren Collison is a crap-shoot at this point and considering those three are starters there's ample room to hope for a break-out year from any and all of those players. I just hope the surprise doesn't go in the other direction.

Wow, Id eat my shorts if we lost 50 games this year

I like that we are thought so lowly of by preseason prognosticators

I hope Jim preaches the "us agianst the world" mentality

Pacers4Life
10-08-2010, 11:59 AM
i wouldn't mind hearing we're the worst team in the East all month. We know what we have. we know whats on the table. 44-38... GIVE ME THE HEAT

BillS
10-08-2010, 12:03 PM
Holy cow. If we go 29-53 we're looking at the Vegas Pacers for sure.

Speed
10-08-2010, 12:04 PM
I might have to buy this book, looks really interesting. Anyone have it?

duke dynamite
10-08-2010, 12:05 PM
Cool.

count55
10-08-2010, 12:08 PM
Holy cow. If we go 29-53 we're looking at the Vegas Pacers for sure.

The stat guys who projected this threw up all sorts of disclaimers because the Pacers would be depending on so many relatively unproven guys - Hibbert, Collison, McRoberts, Price, probably George and Hansbrough, too in their calculations.

It's just hard to project something like that, without putting way too much rationalization into the model.

vnzla81
10-08-2010, 12:28 PM
That is pretty close to my prediction

90'sNBARocked
10-08-2010, 01:57 PM
I might have to buy this book, looks really interesting. Anyone have it?

You can download it at their website for 10 bucks

MLB007
10-08-2010, 04:30 PM
That is pretty close to my prediction

Well you're going to feel pretty silly. :D

90'sNBARocked
10-08-2010, 04:44 PM
Well you're going to feel pretty silly. :D

No doubt

or we will end up looking like eternal optomists :)

Trophy
10-08-2010, 04:52 PM
We've done well in the offseason and have the talent for this team to make it to the playoffs this season.

I think we're going to be like Milwaukee and surprise a lot of people because of our young PG and center talent and Danny at SF.

I'm predicting 44-38 finishing 7th in the East.

MyFavMartin
10-08-2010, 04:56 PM
Based on Roy's improvement, addition via subtraction of Murphy, and getting the PG spot settled with Collison, I know the East is better than last year, but I don't see how we don't get better (34 wins last year). Last year had were snake bit with injuries.

Will Galen
10-08-2010, 05:09 PM
That is pretty close to my prediction

I think they will play over .500 so they will be closer to 50 wins than 50 loses.

HC
10-08-2010, 06:56 PM
I don't really understand how our roster improves, but our team somehow gets worse. Screw this crap, I'll just watch the games as they are played.

HOOPFANATIC
10-08-2010, 07:18 PM
For the last few seasons it seems that we start out with a team trying to play within this mythical system and then toward the end of the season, frustrated the coach concedes to let the player play who just hasn't been getting it. However I do remain more optimistic than 29, maybe 41.

Brad8888
10-09-2010, 12:31 PM
If the game against the Magic is any indication, and I hope it is NOT, the prediction is pretty close, and like BillS, I would say that a move of the franchise becomes more likely during the lockout next year.

McKeyFan
10-09-2010, 12:55 PM
We need a new coach.

Last night reinforced it for me. The squad had just gone on a major run, we came from like 20 back to down only 7 with a minute to go. So what does JOB do? He calls a timeout.

That's what the opposing coach is supposed to do, to stop our momentum. JOB did it for them.

Brad8888
10-09-2010, 01:50 PM
We need a new coach.

Last night reinforced it for me. The squad had just gone on a major run, we came from like 20 back to down only 7 with a minute to go. So what does JOB do? He calls a timeout.

That's what the opposing coach is supposed to do, to stop our momentum. JOB did it for them.

Unfortunately, it was nearly metronomic in its predictability, almost like "Hey, we might have a chance here if I do SOMETHING...(think, man, think).........(DING!) I know, let's call a timeout and actually run a couple of plays!"

Justin Tyme
10-09-2010, 02:32 PM
(34 wins last year).


Lets not get carried away and give more credit than what was earned. The Pacers only won 32 games last season. 32-50 was last seasons record.

Justin Tyme
10-09-2010, 02:44 PM
I think they will play over .500 so they will be closer to 50 wins than 50 loses.

Sorry Will, the Pacers lost 50 games last year, so with all the young'ns and players trying to recover from injuries I don't see getting closer to 50 wins than 50 losses.

What I noticed last night in the 2nd half, didn't get to see 1st half b/c I thought the game started at 8PM... I won't make that mistake tonight, was very little rebounding and "D". I'm not buying into Jimmy's saying this team will be a better rebounding team than last year. Then I have a hard time buying into anything Jimmy says. If this team can't rebound and play "D", then this team will be closer to 50 losses than 50 wins.