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Predicting the Central Division

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  • #1

    Predicting the Central Division

    http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=17037

    The start to the NBA preseason is, remarkably, already less than two months away, and with most NBA rosters more or less rounded out we can start making some educated guesses as to how division races will shape up. Here's a look at the Central Division and how its teams are likely to finish when the year is all said and done.

    1. Chicago Bulls – This isn't going to be an easy division to win this year, not with two legitimately young and hungry teams vying for easy first round home court advantage in the playoffs. That said, it just seems as though the Bulls have the slight edge in terms of star power, which seems to matter down the stretch.

    With Derrick Rose on his way to what should be a breakout year, and another All-Star caliber player in Carlos Boozer on the roster, the Bulls have a solid one-two punch. Add to that a high-octane defensive stopper in the middle (Joakim Noah), decent three-point shooting (Kyle Korver and Keith Bogans), and the painfully whitebread but always reliable Luol Deng, and you've got the makings of a team that should end up with one of the top three or four records in the Eastern Conference.

    The bench isn't too shabby, either. Taj Gibson would probably have been a double-double guy this year had he remained the starter, and players like Kurt Thomas, C.J. Watson, and mysterious Turkish rookie big man Omer Asik round out an extremely deep team that could probably weather a prolonged injury to any player other than Rose.

    In some ways, first-year head coach Tom Thibodeau could be considered a question mark, but his long years of experience in the NBA as an assistant seem to have prepared him for this gig. He's already at the Berto Center working his tail off, and several Bulls already have gotten to know him and like his style. There's a lot of optimism surrounding this franchise, and anything less than a division win and a top-four seed will be considered a disappointment. Luckily, it looks like they've got the horses to get it done.

    2. Milwaukee Bucks – None of the above is meant to discredit what the Milwaukee Bucks quietly accomplished this summer, re-signing John Salmons, drafting two quality big men in Larry Sanders and Tiny Gallon, and adding Corey Maggette, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Drew Gooden, John Brockman, and Keyon Dooling to a team that already included Rookie of the Year runner-up Brandon Jennings, Andrew Bogut, Luc Mbah A Moute, and Ersan Ilyasova.

    Oh, and they've got Michael Redd in the final year of his contract, too. While he's not the All-Star scoring freak he used to be, he is still a potent veteran shooter in a system that doesn't require him to be anything near the primary scorer. He could be dangerous in that role, and even if he's not he's a huge expiring contract that could potentially return the Bucks another significant asset.

    Somehow, this team turned itself into one of the most stacked rosters in the conference, yet hardly anybody is talking about them. They might not have the star power of Chicago, but overall this very well could be a more talented roster from player one through player twelve. Regardless of who wins the division, Milwaukee is likely to be the sleeper very few people talk about heading into the year. There will be a lot of attention on Chicago and Miami and Orlando, but this Bucks team could be the group that rounds out the top four for the 2011 postseason. That means they'd be finishing the regular season with a better record than the Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics.

    Honestly, that doesn't seem unreasonable. I don't think we're done fearing the deer yet.

    3. Detroit Pistons – The Pistons are nowhere near as bad as they played last year, even with essentially the same team returning for another go at it. The problem last season was that the team got off to a horrible start because of a slew of injuries (Ben Gordon, Tayshaun Prince, and Rip Hamilton missed a combined 89 games) and never were able to dig themselves out of their gigantic, losing hole.

    Gordon had a career-worst year scoring the ball, and few expect that to continue again this upcoming season. Hamilton and Prince, meanwhile, are still more than affable NBA players and desirable trade bait. With the news that Detroit could be bringing Tracy McGrady aboard, and with the development of Austin Daye, either Rip or Tay is more likely than ever to be moved.

    But even if all those guys do stay on the roster and somehow manage to coexist (along with starting point guard Rodney Stuckey, who also needs his fair share of shots), they still aren't going to be much better than .500. This is a team with significant issues in the size department, especially if Kwame Brown leaves for a new team.

    Granted, there's promise in rookie center Greg Monroe and sophomore power forward Jonas Jerebko, and Charlie Villanueva, Jason Maxiell, and Chris Wilcox aren't necessarily horrible, but at this very moment there's nobody on the roster that can hang with All-Star talent down low. That's their biggest problem—that, and a serious logjam at the two and three spots. But they aren't going to win 27 games next year. Expect them to win something closer to 38 or 40.

    4. Cleveland Cavaliers – Without Shaquille O'Neal, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and, of course, LeBron James, what are the Cleveland Cavaliers left with for 2011? Well, there are still two All-Stars on the roster in Mo Williams and Antawn Jamison, and a handful of promising youngsters to surround them, namely Ramon Sessions, Anderson Varejao, and J.J. Hickson.

    But beyond that, things start to thin out. Anthony Parker is obviously a respectable role player, but the best available guys after that are Daniel Gibson, Jamario Moon, and Leon Powe. Does that seem like enough to nab a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference? Hardly. In fact, that's a group that will be lucky to hit .500 in so tough a conference and so tough a division.

    I know Dan Gilbert made the profession that the Cavs would win a title before the Miami HEAT would, but this is a franchise so very far away from serious contention for a ring that such a statement is laughable in retrospect. They aren't a horrible team by any stretch, but they're also no longer anything even resembling elite. Losing LeBron and their two best centers will hurt. Third in the Central isn't out of the question, but anything better than that certainly is.

    5. Indiana Pacers – Few teams in the NBA have had a more disappointing offseason than the Indiana Pacers, who will return with almost the exact same lineup that they featured last season. Granted, they'll be adding one of the rookie class's sleepers in Paul George, and hopefully will have a full, healthy season out of Tyler Hansbrough, but otherwise this is the same team that was ten games under .500 last year.

    The best Indiana can hope for is a bounce-back season from Danny Granger. While he scored a reasonable number of points for the team last year, the shots he took were often forced and selfish. It wasn't the same Danny Granger that was named to the 2009 All-Star team.

    Otherwise, we've seen for a few years now that a team built around Granger, Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy, T.J. Ford, Brandon Rush, Roy Hibbert, and Jeff Foster isn't going to get much accomplished. Unfortunately, Indy plays in a division with some extremely tough competition and a conference that got a heck of a lot better in the offseason. Considering the Pacers did so little to improve—especially in the failure to find a new starting point guard—it's hard to see themselves staying out of the division basement this season.

    Truthfully, the only team on this list of five that seems most cemented in position is the Indiana Pacers. The Bucks and Bulls will finish 1-2 in some order, and the Pistons and Cavs will finish 3-4. How that pans out exactly is up for grabs, but one thing we definitely know is that with the Cavaliers falling so far from grace this is a remarkably different division now. Teams that were in the middle of the pack last year have risen to the top.

    It could change the way the playoffs look, too, having Chicago or Milwaukee hosting home court at least in the first round. What do you think? Is this how the division will look next April, or will something here be remarkably different? Hit up the comments and let us know what you think!
    I think we should finish ahead of both the Pistons and Cavs. I also think we'll have a different starting PG by the time the season starts, that's not currently on the roster
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: Predicting the Central Division

    Is there a worse division in the NBA right now?

    Also, the Bucks are so much better coached than any other team in the division, except perhaps Cleveland but they're so bad that coaching won't matter, so that has to count for something.
    Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
    Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
    Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
    Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
    And life itself, rushing over me
    Life itself, the wind in black elms,
    Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: Predicting the Central Division

      I like the site Hoopsworld , but cant stand the writer , Joel

      He is as big as a Bulls homer there is.

      We will not finish 5th, I dont see what Detroit and Cleveland have on us.

      I see us third at best, 4th at worse

      Joel = Tool
      Sittin on top of the world!

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: Predicting the Central Division

        Bulls
        Pistons
        Bucks
        Cavs
        Pacers

        Bulls are solid, and that is basically all it takes. Pistons should be significantly better due to injury problems hopefully clearing up for them (I am over the whole rivalry thing at the moment). Bucks are still trying to find themselves despite an increased amount of talent. Cavs have the best coach in the division in Byron Scott IMO, and that will get them a few extra wins and team cohesion that they otherwise would lack.

        That leaves the Pacers in last I suspect, with all of the problems that we faced last year minus Danny's health problems (assuming, of course, he fully heals from whatever has been ailing him during the workouts for Team USA), coupled with new guys coming in having to unlearn everything they know regarding fundamental basketball, learning new positions, and being practice dummies for the vets while the team languishes in an attempt to be given "the best opportunity to win" by playing vets.

        Also, overcoming the culture of losing is becoming more difficult as time passes, and that won't be overcome until there is total regime change on the sidelines, despite the vast majority of the sideline having been changed at this point. Unfortunately, I suspect it was changed to reduce dissent amongst the coaching ranks which will only serve to further entrench the system and all that goes with it.

        Who knows, though. McRoberts may learn to hit threes and be a high post facilitator, Ford may learn to hit 3's and not penetrate as deeply into the paint before jumping wildly, Hibbert may finally be taught NBA footwork and positioning and develop a tougher mindset due to Walton's influence over the summer, and Rush may develop a thicker skin and an agressiveness offensively to take his game to the next level, and Granger might learn how to defend better and drive to the basket more frequently without being stripped. We might even see Foster play meaningful minutes at the 4 / 5. And, Hansbrough might recover enough to be able to draw some fouls and hit some freethrows.

        If several of these things occur on a consistent basis, the Pacers might just end up 4th in the division, and be on the Bucks heels for 3rd. I don't hold out much hope for that happening, though.

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: Predicting the Central Division

          The Pistons right now are the worst team. If they makes some subtle moves to even out the roster, I'll amend that.

          It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

          Division Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 1989, 1990, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
          Conference Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 2005
          NBA Champions 1989, 1990, 2004

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: Predicting the Central Division

            Best case scenario for us = we do fairly well during the season and Milwaukee's Salmons/Maggette combo turns out to be disastrous and we finish 2nd in the division. Worst case scenario (imo) is that we finish 3rd in the division. I believe that there's no way the Pistons and/or the Cavaliers will finish ahead of us. Granger & Hibbert alone could win more games then them LOL.

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: Predicting the Central Division

              This is a far cry from a few years ago when we were arguing that the central division was possiby the strongest in the NBA.
              'All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.'
              Animal Farm, by George Orwell

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: Predicting the Central Division

                I think Cleveland will be worst team.

                Not sure if the Bulls will finish ahead of the Bucks. Interesting battle. Why do you think the Bucks are so bad, ChicagoJ? I think they were able to retain their elite defense+rebounding from last season while adding the shot-creation they needed.
                Last edited by cordobes; 08-09-2010, 09:53 PM.

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: Predicting the Central Division

                  Originally posted by cordobes View Post
                  I think Cleveland will be worse team.

                  Not sure if the Bulls will finish ahead of the Bucks. Interesting battle. Why do you think the Bucks are so bad, ChicagoJ? I think they were able to retain their elite defense+rebounding from last season while adding the shot-creation they needed.
                  Seeing if Salmons and Maggette can coexist is a big part. Most do not believe they can, so there's a place to start. I would assume Bogut to come back and have another great season like last year, so there's a big positive--that plus Jennings should improve from last year.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: Predicting the Central Division

                    Originally posted by ChristianDudley View Post
                    Seeing if Salmons and Maggette can coexist is a big part. Most do not believe they can, so there's a place to start.
                    I'm expecting Skiles to minimize the time they're on the court together - two ball-stoppers who create off the bounce and aren't good passers.

                    But they needed another guy able to create his shot, construct points by himself and attack the rim from the perimeter. Maggette's production off isolation plays was a much needed addition for them, they didn't have enough offensive talent or versatility last season. It'll allow the other guys to do what they do better and pick their spots.

                    Jennings ability to run the team and distribute possessions will be instrumental to make things work. But what's the downside? A bad offensive team they already were last season.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: Predicting the Central Division

                      Here are my picks

                      Bulls: Best team in the division
                      Bucks: They are going to fight with the Bulls for the 1st place
                      Cavs: Are not going to be as bad as people think they still have some talent.
                      Pacers: Well almost the same team is coming back.
                      Pistons: They are worse than the Pacers because they still have Gordon, Villanueva, Ben, Wilcox and Daye
                      @WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: Predicting the Central Division

                        Originally posted by cordobes View Post
                        I think Cleveland will be worst team.

                        Not sure if the Bulls will finish ahead of the Bucks. Interesting battle. Why do you think the Bucks are so bad, ChicagoJ? I think they were able to retain their elite defense+rebounding from last season while adding the shot-creation they needed.
                        Originally posted by ChristianDudley View Post
                        Seeing if Salmons and Maggette can coexist is a big part. Most do not believe they can, so there's a place to start. I would assume Bogut to come back and have another great season like last year, so there's a big positive--that plus Jennings should improve from last year.
                        I think the Bucks will win the division. Thought I hinted at that. They're the best coached team and they've got some talent. Cleveland will be well-coached, but they'll just suck so it won't matter. The other three teams have major flaws - the Pacers with coaching and a subpar roster, the Pistons with a subpar roster (who's their coach again) and the Bulls have unproven chemistry, a lot of squabbling over contracts, and a rookie head coach. But they've got Derrick Rose, too, so having the best player in the division counts for somthing.

                        Bucks
                        Bulls
                        Pacers
                        Pistons
                        Cavaliers

                        I'd guess the Bucks win the division with less than/ about 50 wins, the Bulls should end up in the mid to upper 40s, the Pacers in the upper 30s, the Pistons in the lower 30s and the Cavs in the mid 20s.
                        Why do the things that we treasure most, slip away in time
                        Till to the music we grow deaf, to God's beauty blind
                        Why do the things that connect us slowly pull us apart?
                        Till we fall away in our own darkness, a stranger to our own hearts
                        And life itself, rushing over me
                        Life itself, the wind in black elms,
                        Life itself in your heart and in your eyes, I can't make it without you

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: Predicting the Central Division

                          Wow, it really seems like the central division has gone from the best division... or at least near the best, to the worst. It's really bad. With the Bulls and Bucks as the top teams... ?? they really aren't that good. Hell, a new coach and a Troy Murphy trade, the Pacers could win the division.

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Re: Predicting the Central Division

                            bulls
                            bucks
                            pacers
                            cavs
                            pistons

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Re: Predicting the Central Division

                              I think the bulls and bucks both have potential to win 50 games this year. Its a valid question as to whether Maggette fits in with the bucks but if he does, a 4 game improvement along with their other additions is not a stretch.

                              The Bulls main addition was Boozer. This adds a scoring big they just haven't had. They won 41 games last year, so 50 is a pretty big leap. Still, I think they are capable, especially if Rose continues to improve.

                              I don't care how good your coaching is, you have to have the players. With Cleveland, I'm not sure how they will respond losing Lebron. I feel like they'll still manage to win mid-30s but it could end up far less. Right around where the Pacers finish.

                              Detroit, unless they manage to move wings for a big upgrade or Monroe comes in and makes a major difference from day 1, is probably the worse team in the conference. It's not so much a talent problem as it is talent in the wrong places. Stuckey shouldn't be playing point guard and Gordon, Rip, Tayshaun, Daye, Jerebko (though plays PF), this is a team that is forced to play 5, 6 wings in their rotation because that's simply where the talent is. If they manage to move Rip and Tayshaun for a solid big and maybe an actual point, they are probably a significantly better team.
                              "man, PG has been really good."

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