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Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

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  • #1

    Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

    http://pacers.realgm.com/articles/19...es_at_lottery/


    The Indiana Pacers won't be taking the floor on Tuesday, but the immediate future of their franchise will hinge on what happens in the oh-so-beautiful city of Secaucus, New Jersey.

    The 2010 NBA Draft Lottery will take place in Secaucus, home of NBA Entertainment, a night that is underrated on the league's calender by many of its more casual observers. The future of more than a dozen teams will be decided as inanimate ping pong balls will make real-life decisions in a billion-dollar industry.

    This year's event is, for all intents and purposes, a lottery for the right to draft John Wall.

    Indiana has one first-round pick in next month's NBA Draft, but they may have two chances to land a much-needed point guard. The best odds of winning the lottery belong to the New Jersey Nets, with a 25% chance of doing so. The Pacers, conversely, have just a 1.1% shot at earning the top selection.

    The Chicago Bulls had an even smaller chance of grabbing the first pick back in 2008, but pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NBA history by winning the lottery and eventually deciding upon Memphis point guard Derrick Rose.

    Rose has since been named the Rookie of the Year and led Chicago to back-to-back playoff appearances.

    The Pacers will send Danny Granger to Secaucus to represent the team and given the team's lack of luck, whether it be in the lottery, the standings, or in terms of health, they aren't going to be picking higher than their slotted place of tenth overall.

    After missing the postseason for the fourth consecutive season, the 10th pick isn't going to sell more tickets or turn the franchise around, but the remainder of the lottery just might.

    Nets president Rod Thorn admitted last week that he has received calls about Devin Harris and did nothing to kill rumors that he'd consider dealing him as the team looks to rebuild. Larry Bird and general manager David Morway don't necessarily have the chips needed to deal for Harris right now, but his price would drop significantly if New Jersey drafted Wall, who is ready to step in and start immediately, with him as the franchise player, similar to Rose.

    Therefore, if Indiana isn't going to pull off a shocker and win the lottery, the next best scenario would be to see the order play out true to form.

    The arrival of Wall in New Jersey won't guarantee that Indiana is able to land Harris. In a league largely driven by point guards, the Pacers will have competition from a least a few other teams. The Pistons, 76ers and Heat could all be in the market for a point guard this summer.

    The Pacers might, however, have a leg up on any potential competition given their wealth of contracts that will expire after the 2010-11 season. The Nets have quite a bit of salary cap room to work with this offseason, but if they aren't able to land a superstar or if they choose to spend conservatively heading into an uncertain future, delaying their spending spree one summer when Carmelo Anthony becomes available could be appealing.

    With Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, T.J. Ford and Jeff Foster, who all have deals with one year remaining, Bird and Morway could offer Thorn a host of different scenarios with each involving Harris coming back in return.

    They could offer Dunleavy for Harris, straight-up, but it's doubtful such an offer would be accepted. New Jersey probably wouldn't want Ford, who will undoubtedly be mentioned in rumors this summer despite a market value that is perhaps lower than ever. He was playing behind both Earl Watson and A.J. Price for a majority of the 2009-10 season.

    That leaves Murphy and Foster as the most likely candidates.

    Murphy is the most attractive option, coming off perhaps his best season as a professional, but he will actually make more than Harris next season (about $12 million to $9 million), meaning New Jersey will have to throw in another player.

    The Nets could add Yi Jianlian to the deal, but a non-rotation player is more likely given the possibility that Murphy could bolt as a free agent next summer. The chance of that happening, however, might have less to do with how much improvement the team shows next season than you'd think. Murphy is a New Jersey native.

    Indiana could acquire Keyon Dooling, which would allow them to get back a portion of the cap room they'll lose by dealing Murphy. Dooling's contract includes a team option worth roughly $3.8 million for the 2010-11 season.

    In a Murphy-for-Harris and Dooling swap, the Pacers would get a starting point guard for at least the next three seasons, while using only three-fourths of the cap value of Murphy's expiring contract. When you consider the appeal Indiana will have to free agents in 2011, or lack thereof, such a move makes sense.

    New Jersey is also in play for LeBron James, who could actually improve the likelihood of a Harris trade, especially if Wall is added as well. There wouldn't be enough touches for the trio and Murphy was linked to the Cavaliers this past February as a nice complement to James. As a stretch four, Murphy would help unclog the lane for both James and Wall, allowing the pair to attack the basket without having to navigate traffic.

    The Pacers don't necessarily need to win Tuesday's lottery to get the point guard they so desperately need, they just need the Nets to land Wall and covet someone like Murphy.

    At this point, the likelihood isn't great, but two chances are certainly better than one.
    This can be merged if necessary. Would there really be a chance the Nets would like Murphy enough not to ask for the #10 pick in return

    I doubt it, but a man can dream I guess.

    I will definitely be rooting for the Nets to land #1 if we don't land a top 3 pick ourselves
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

    Kegboy had a good idea in hoping Minnesota would win the lottey and then they can have another point guard.
    {o,o}
    |)__)
    -"-"-

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    • #3
      Re: Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

      Wow, Dooling's contract is a team option? So we could cut him immediately and shave 4 mil off the cap right there?

      Sign me up immediately. That's a great deal. That would clear us away from the LT threshold, give us a starting PG, and make room for Tyler/Udoh/McBob up front.

      If Jersey will even consider making that deal without demanding the #10, you take it and run.
      Last edited by Anthem; 05-17-2010, 02:29 PM.
      This space for rent.

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      • #4
        Re: Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

        But... according to Jim and Larry, Troy Murphy is our MVP.

        They will want more than some mere all-star calibre point guard in a trade for the force of nature that is Troy Murphy.

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        • #5
          Re: Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

          I'd love to con them out of Harris for Murphy and, say, A.J. Price. Show them some per-36 numbers and convince them Price is a good, young prospect who would make a great, long-term backup for Wall.

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          • #6
            Re: Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

            If the Nets offer Harris/Dooling for Murphy Bird better jump all over this. We would get our PG that we need, shave off some cap room immediately, get someone like Udoh and force JOB to play Hansbrough and McRoberts. WIN WIN WIN!

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            • #7
              Re: Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

              Nets would definitely want the number 10. Even in the bizarro world where the Nets would be OK trading Harris for Murph straight up some other team could easily trump that offer (and likely would) forcing us to toss in the number 10 and maybe even a guy like Rush.


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              • #8
                Re: Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

                Originally posted by thewholefnshow31 View Post
                If the Nets offer Harris/Dooling for Murphy Bird better jump all over this. We would get our PG that we need, shave off some cap room immediately, get someone like Udoh and force JOB to play Hansbrough and McRoberts. WIN WIN WIN!
                It'd never happen. We're the Pacers. Stuff like this Just. Doesn't. Happen.

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                • #9
                  Re: Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

                  Originally posted by Indy View Post
                  Nets would definitely want the number 10. Even in the bizarro world where the Nets would be OK trading Harris for Murph straight up some other team could easily trump that offer (and likely would) forcing us to toss in the number 10 and maybe even a guy like Rush.
                  I don't really think they'd be interested in Rush... they're stacked with young wings. I agree they'll want more than just Murphy, though. I also don't think they'll have interest in AJ Price if they're getting Wall. Hibs is off the table.

                  That leaves McBob, Tyler, and the #10. I don't think Tyler would pass a physical, but Kiki supposedly loves him. I'd rather keep the #10 than McBob, but they have plenty of backup PFs already that will be losing time if they get Murph. McBob does nothing for them.

                  Best sweetener is probably a future (protected) first and one of this year's second-round picks.
                  This space for rent.

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                  • #10
                    Re: Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

                    There is still a 75% chance that this won't work.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

                      Originally posted by Anthem View Post
                      Wow, Dooling's contract is a team option? So we could cut him immediately and shave 4 mil off the cap right there?

                      Sign me up immediately. That's a great deal. That would clear us away from the LT threshold, give us a starting PG, and make room for Tyler/Udoh/McBob up front.

                      If Jersey will even consider making that deal without demanding the #10, you take it and run.
                      $500,000 is guaranteed to Dooling out of his $3.8M contract.

                      I honestly think that NJ wouldn't be able to commmand as much as the #10 pick for Devin Harris. We are talking about the difference of Harris's $27M salary and Murphy's $12M. $15M at the very least, is quite a bit of cheddar. IMO, the Nets would prefer to get Ford and Hansborough to anything outside of our #10 pick. Ford would prevent Wall from breaking down in year one. They keep the option to cut Dooling for themselves and dont take on the extra 2M salary from Murphy which reduces their cap space toward free agency. Hansborough would be a good young tough PF to put next to Lopez, which the Nets don't have.

                      If they are starving for more cap space:

                      - Ford by himself gets them another half a million in cap space.
                      - Ford plus Solo for Harris and Humphries nets them $2.2M more space.
                      - Ford plus Hans for Harris and Humphries nets them $1.7M but more talent. I like this deal, especially if we get a PF we love in the draft at #10. It reduces both teams' redundancies.

                      The problem I see is that we will absolutely need to provide them immediate cap relief on top of the long-term cap relief. They probably want as much salary relief as possible before the start of free agency. The best way to go would be to get a team under the cap currently, which I believe OKC is the only team, to agree to take on some salary next year for one of our players in the swap. This way NJ gets relief going into FA. This could only happen if the Thunder don't plan on making a move for a max contract PF, which is doubtful. Our expiring contract still allows room for the Thunder to extend Durant and Green beyond next year.

                      Here's a thought... Foster and $3M cash (from NJ) to the Thunder, Harris to Indy, and Kyle Weaver to NJ. That might sound lopsided as all heck, but it really makes a ton of sense for all three teams.

                      Note: Weaver has an unguaranteed deal for $935,484 for next year if cut before August 1 (saving NJ $8,981,000M). This would leave NJ with 6 players at $14.6M, before draft picks, and roughly $20M and 8 players after the draft. This gives them ~$36M of cap space going into free agency.
                      Last edited by pacergod2; 05-17-2010, 03:42 PM.
                      "Your course, your path, is not going to be like mine," West says. "Everybody is not called to be a multimillionaire. Everybody's not called to be the president. Whatever your best work is, you do it. Do it well. … You cease your own greatness when you aspire to be someone else."

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                      • #12
                        Re: Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

                        Originally posted by Day-V View Post
                        It'd never happen. We're the Pacers. Stuff like this Just. Doesn't. Happen.
                        Why must you crush my dreams and hopes? That is all I have right now with the Pacers.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

                          Harris is the option if NJ wins the lottery. What would be the option if Minnesota wins the lottery. Trade for Flynn, Sessions or Rubio?

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Re: Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

                            I think Sessions still has something to prove, but Flynn would be nice too. Rubio scare me, will he ever come over to the States to play?

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Re: Pacers have 2 chances at winning lottery

                              Suppose New Jersey wins the lottery, (making Harris available) and the Pacers get #2, or #3 pick. Call me greedy but that would be cool.
                              “It is what we learn after we know it all that really counts” - John Wooden

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