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Thesterovic
02-09-2010, 12:46 PM
I just want to make sure that you guys understand that we are not going to get a perennial All-Star for our expiring contracts next year. We are not going to get Monta Ellis, an extended Rudy Gay, Andre Igoudala, Kevin Martin, or even Stephen Jackson the way he's been playing lately. We'll probably have to get an old, overpriced player that is on the downhill of his career, a good player with a major flaw (for example; Jermaine O'Neal and his inability to stay healthy), a ridiculously overpaid player (like Elton Brand, Rashard Lewis, or Baron Davis), a young and unproven player (Anthony Randolph, for example) or a good player that Bird wouldn't take for PR reasons (Gilbert Arenas or Ron Artest). Houston can't get Andre Igoudala for a $23 million dollar expiring contract, even though Tracy can still play, and they were willing to take back Samuel Dalembert, a Murphy-bad contract. So realistically, I'm looking into next year at the deadline, and this is who I see:

Old, overpriced players: Jason Kidd, Al Harrington, Baron Davis, Elton Brand, Kirk Hinrich, Andre Miller, or Antawn Jamison, or Gilbert Arenas for either Troy, TJ, or Dunleavy.

Good players with major flaws: Jason Kidd (Bad defense), Steve Nash (Slow, bad defense), Elton Brand (Injuries), Caron Butler (Ineffectiveness), Kevin Garnett (Injuries, quickness dissappearing), Pau Gasol (Softness, the IT factor), Zach Randolph (Bad Defense, history of being a black hole on offense), or Devin Harris (Not a game changer, not much of a playmaker, with history of injuries) for Troy, TJ, or Dunleavy.

Young and unproven players: Greg Oden (potential, but injuries and hasn't done much), Anthony Randolph (Thinks he's a shooting guard), JJ Hickson (Works off of the talent around him), Mario Chalmers (Slumping), Courtney Lee (Slumping) plus a bad contract for TJ, Troy, or Dunleavy.

Good young players we will not be able to get because they will be given extensions, plus if they are good, common sense tells you that the other team won't give them away for nothing, unless if we take ANOTHER bad contract back, which we simply cannot afford to do. For example, Thaddeus Young and Elton Brand for Mike Dunleavy. Brand will be riding the bench, never playing by the time that contract expires.

Good players that we won't take: Gilbert Arenas, Ron Artest, Stephen Jackson, Baron Davis, Tyrus Thomas, Rasheed Wallace, Kevin Garnett, and Zach Randolph.

Also keep in mind, we will have to give Roy, Rush, and Price extensions that offseason, and Roy will be making big money. I wouldn't be suprised to see him signing a 4 year/$50m contract. AJ and Rush will also get a nice paycheck too, so we really don't have all that much money in free agency. So we can't get an All Star in trades, and we can't get one in free agency, so what can we do?

The only possible thing we can do is trade our expiring contracts, plus future chips, like Boston did to get Kevin Garnett. For example, we could do Roy Hibbert, a first, TJ Ford, and AJ Price for Monta Ellis. But I'm sure many of you would die if we did that. So, in conclusion, its not as easy making these decisions as you may think.

MillerTime
02-09-2010, 12:57 PM
if we could get Harrish and/or Gasol for an expiring contract, I would do that in a heartbeat

Infinite MAN_force
02-09-2010, 12:58 PM
I cosign on this. Those expiring contracts wont bring back anything you want unless you are willing to give up assets. I personally feel that letting these contracts expire and testing free agency is the way to go. If you find a fit in free agency, you can keep the rest of your assets. If you don't? Then sit on it, and make a trade later. If you are under the cap, you don't have to match salary in trades. Its basically the same thing as having an expiring contract to trade. Adding a broken down veteran is not going to take this team to the promise land, which is all an expiring contract MIGHT get us by itself.

MillerTime
02-09-2010, 01:00 PM
I cosign on this. Those expiring contracts wont bring back anything you want unless you are willing to give up assets. I personally feel that letting these contracts expire and testing free agency is the way to go. If you find a fit in free agency, you can keep the rest of your assets. If you don't? Then sit on it, and make a trade later. If you are under the cap, you don't have to match salary in trades. Its basically the same thing as haveing an expiring contract to trade. Adding a broken down veteran is not going to take this team to the promise land, which is all an expiring contract MIGHT get us by itself.

It'll probably be too difficult to lure in an All Star free agent into Indy when there are better cities in the league

Thesterovic
02-09-2010, 01:02 PM
if we could get Harrish and/or Gasol for an expiring contract, I would do that in a heartbeat

I'm being completely hypothetical, LA wouldn't trade Gasol if they won 35 games this year, just like Harris hasn't been traded and their on pace to win about 6 games.

MillerTime
02-09-2010, 01:04 PM
I'm being completely hypothetical, LA wouldn't trade Gasol if they won 35 games this year, just like Harris hasn't been traded and their on pace to win about 6 games.

If NJ gets Wall, they will be more likely to move Harrish...and NJ would demand more than just an expiring contract

vnzla81
02-09-2010, 01:08 PM
Yeah I feel the same way, if TMac,Manu,Shaq,Ilgauskas,JO and the other expirings can only bring you a Troy Murphy or similar player, I can't imagine what an expiring Troy,Dun,Ford could bring you back, Randolph? Dirk? KG?

Thesterovic
02-09-2010, 01:09 PM
Exactly

vnzla81
02-09-2010, 01:19 PM
Out of the players with Bigger contracts who we could get next year either because their teams are bad and are not going anywhere or because they are pretty close to be over the cap, some of those players that could be avalaible are Iguadola, Okafor,D West, Monta Ellis, Kaman, B Davis, AK47, Deng,B Gordon, they are choices but at the same time teams don't want only expirings, they want other pieces back.

CableKC
02-09-2010, 01:21 PM
It'll probably be too difficult to lure in an All Star free agent into Indy when there are better cities in the league
There are other ways to improve a Team then through Free Agency. With SalaryCap/Financial Flexibility....Free Agency is one option....but not the only option. Having SalaryCap/Financial Flexibility allows the Team to get involved in other trade opportunities that they could not get involved in before.

IMHO....I really hope that we simply ride things out and either trade one of the Big 4 in a week for an 2009-2010 Expiring contract and simply let the remaining Big 3 Contracts expire.

Keep in mind......by the start of the 2011-2012 season....assuming that we do not trade any of the core Players or sign anyone beyond the 2011-2012 season during this offseason....we will have 8 core Players ( Granger, AJ, BRush, Hibbert, Hansbrough, Inferno, the 2010 1st round Draft Pick and the 2011 1st round Draft pick ) on the roster. With the Capspace, we'll be in a position to sign the best Starting qualify PG, SG or a PF ( depending on who we draft in the next 2 seasons ) and then see what other needs we will have. As Seth mentioned in another post...the rebuilding process really starts at the beginning of 2011-2012 where we will be in a good position to build the Team the right way.

Infinite MAN_force
02-09-2010, 01:24 PM
It'll probably be too difficult to lure in an All Star free agent into Indy when there are better cities in the league

People always say this but I don't buy it. Money talks. If the right player is available and you offer him the right amount, he probably signs. I'm not talking about Lebron, Wade, Kobe here... but I think you could find another "Granger" level player potentially.

and like I said before, if you don't find the "right" player in free agency... sit on the cap space!!! You have not lost anything, being under the cap will allow you space to trade with.

Tom White
02-09-2010, 01:31 PM
Good grief, guys. Did the sky just fall?

I thought it was only snow.

I don't think things are quite that bleak. Not sunshine, rainbows and seashells, but not the End of Days, either.

Just remember, every year a trade happens that makes everyone go "They got who? For just that?" Sometimes teams decide it is time to tear it down and start again. They fire-sale a good player to start a youth movement, or similar. Or, like Phoenix is known to do, they decide to just sell their draft pick.

Hopefully it will be the Pacers turn to be on the good side of one of those.

wintermute
02-09-2010, 03:51 PM
I cosign on this. Those expiring contracts wont bring back anything you want unless you are willing to give up assets. I personally feel that letting these contracts expire and testing free agency is the way to go. If you find a fit in free agency, you can keep the rest of your assets. If you don't? Then sit on it, and make a trade later. If you are under the cap, you don't have to match salary in trades. Its basically the same thing as having an expiring contract to trade. Adding a broken down veteran is not going to take this team to the promise land, which is all an expiring contract MIGHT get us by itself.

not quite true that cap space is exactly the same as an expiring contract in trade. trading contracts allows you to match salaries to within 125%. with cap space, you have to have the exact amount of cap space to match incoming salaries. example: a $20m expiring contract allows you to take back $25m of salary in trade. $20m cap space allows you to get $20m in salary, whether in trade or free agency.

furthermore, for over the cap teams, $20m in expiring contracts doesn't mean you'll have $20m in cap space the following year. your other existing salaries cut into the cap number.

while i agree that our expiring contracts by themselves won't bring much, the expiring contracts plus our lottery pick should be a pretty attractive package.

Putnam
02-09-2010, 04:33 PM
Everybody's entitled to have an opinion, and this is an open forum and all that. I don't mean any disrespect. But really, your prediction is kind of pointless. You don't know what is going to happen, and you aren't in a position to make these decisions you are foretelling. Why don't you pass the time by playing a little Soltaire?

Or if not that, try on this tool for prediction (http://www.deathclock.com/).



EDIT: I don't mean to be snotty. It is just that predictions are worthless, and the further into the future they go, the less point ther is in making them. Several of the comments made here are sensible. But the likelihood that the conditions used no to made the prediction will still exist in the summer of 2011 is so slight that the prediction is not going to pertain.




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Justin Tyme
02-09-2010, 04:49 PM
Roy will be making big money. I wouldn't be suprised to see him signing a 4 year/$50m contract.


Who are you, Hibbert's agent??

Talk about being over optimistic on Hibbert's future. That's 12.5 mil a year!!! That's more that Granger is making this year and the next 2 years after. Hibbert will NEVER see 12.5 mil a year in his career. Are you forgetting owners are looking to bring salaries back down not increase them? Not to mention Roy will be a RFA with the Pacers being able to match an offer. Checkout what Houston got RFA Carl Landry for last year, and then look at his numbers this year. Hibbert 4 years at 50 mil is ridiculous.

Thesterovic
02-09-2010, 11:21 PM
Yeah, I am Roy Hibbert's agent because I said that I wouldn't be suprised to see him make $50m over four years.

And, to Putnam. I'm not predicting who we get. I'm just making the point that we can't get an elite player for expiring contracts, and I'm showing examples of who could be brought over, and that we won't be able to get anyone perfect like Kevin Martin or Monta Ellis.

Smoothdave1
02-09-2010, 11:46 PM
Hibbert will never see 50 million over 4 years in the new NBA contract environment. An NBA GM came out a few weeks ago and said a guy like Amare wouldn't make more than 6 million a year under the new CBA and you think Roy will make twice that?