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Hicks
01-31-2010, 12:12 PM
http://www.eightpointsnineseconds.com/2010/01/spitballing-where-the-pacers-will-finish/

At this point, I'd actually be happy with that. Maybe not John Wall territory, but close, and likely to grab someone pretty good if we pick well.

Justin Tyme
01-31-2010, 01:09 PM
Count nice work. It's very interesting!

The Pacers have won about 1/3 of their games so far, and with 35 games to go 1/3 is 11 games. 11 games seems reasonable, BUT I'm not sure with the schedule last half of the season that will happen. I'm not and have been in the Pacers will get John Wall category, but I'd like to have the 4-7 pick in the draft.

Thanx for the nice read, and all the time you put into it.

Brad8888
01-31-2010, 01:30 PM
My spitballing (never was very good at spitballing back in school, couldn't get the moisture content quite right to achieve maximum distance and control)

16-31 = .340
82 * .340 = 27.88 W's.

If last year were to hold true with approx .500 the rest of the way

.500 * 35 = 17.5
17.5 + 16 = 33.5

Since the Pacers are already tired out from the heavy schedule with an under-utilized roster during the last 6 weeks, they won't have as much lift on their shots overall as a roster as they did last year, but Danny might get accustomed to playing on his foot with whatever orthotics they have fitted him with and his shot might improve. We also have no Jarrett Jack to lead the way in toughness and Dahntay does not seem to be favored by the coaching staff to fill that role, and Rush is not likely to replicate last year's late season success, but he may come close.

Split the difference between last year to end the season and this year so far with a .420 record for the last 35 games,

35 * .420 = 14.7
16 + 14.7 = 30.7

Factor in a lack of anything to make a "playoff push" and overall drive and chemistry on the team due to dysfunctionality, take away whatever improvement might have occurred due to the guys getting used to each other after all the team has gone through this year and voila, I agree with Count, though my methods are vastly different than those he employed. If things remain as they are, .340 * 82 = 27.88, and I will also round down to get 27 W's.

We still might do better if we can get any trades to happen, though, but I am not holding my breath on anyone significant being traded away because there are so many things in play that seem to counter any of the popular scenarios occurring, and the fact that potential trade partners still often try to satisfy their own players in where they might like to go if they are given any say in the matter, and right now I suspect that we might be 29th in the league in that category due to our overall picture, just ahead of Minnesota.

I want to be wrong, because I feel that the worse we do, the more difficult our negotiations with the CIB are going to become, which could prove disastrous to the franchise financially.

DrFife
01-31-2010, 02:01 PM
http://www.eightpointsnineseconds.com/2010/01/spitballing-where-the-pacers-will-finish/

At this point, I'd actually be happy with that. Maybe not John Wall territory, but close, and likely to grab someone [who should be] pretty good [in a few years] if we pick well.

1) Given TPTB's any-playoffs-are-better-than-none stance, I wonder if Larry might be trying to concoct a help-us-now trade. Further, let's say it works, and we start winning beyond Count's predictions ... and the chance of a playoff appearance emerges. PDers, will you be able to replace your John Wall hopes with hope for the team's late-season momentum?

2) I'm with Seth on current (albeit very early) draft strategy: (trade down, if necessary, to) secure two picks. To me, the only reason for us to stay near the top of the next draft would be to land a PG or a 4-5 (which I also think we can get a bit further down). This year's batch of pups is so young, potential is a bigger part of the equation than ever.

Will Galen
01-31-2010, 02:06 PM
http://www.eightpointsnineseconds.com/2010/01/spitballing-where-the-pacers-will-finish/

At this point, I'd actually be happy with that. Maybe not John Wall territory, but close, and likely to grab someone pretty good if we pick well.

I looked at the schedule yesterday and came up with us going 10-25, about the same as Count.

Interestingly the blonde in the picture, missbumptious? I goggled her image on Goggle and came up with a bunch of Pacer Digest avatar pictures. Huh???????

count55
01-31-2010, 02:12 PM
I looked at the schedule yesterday and came up with us going 10-25, about the same as Count.

Interestingly the blonde in the picture, missbumptious? I goggled her image on Goggle and came up with a bunch of Pacer Digest avatar pictures. Huh???????

No, the blonde is Kristen Bell.

missbumptious is somebody on twitter who'd used the phrase, "Close your eyes, and think of England." I always liked that phrase but hadn't heard it in years...so I stole it.

The picture doesn't particularly mean anything other than it was pleasant after all of the ugliness of the numbers (and the games).

Will Galen
01-31-2010, 02:19 PM
No, the blonde is Kristen Bell.

is somebody on twitter who'd used the phrase, "Close your eyes, and think of England." I always liked that phrase but hadn't heard it in years...so I stole it.

The picture doesn't particularly mean anything other than it was pleasant after all of the ugliness of the numbers (and the games).

Okay, I wanted to see what she looked like without being puckered up, and eyes closed. But the point I was making was finding Pacers Digest avatars when I googgled missbumptious images. I guess Google thinks we are all bumptious.

AesopRockOn
01-31-2010, 02:28 PM
- That, uh, expression doesn't really apply to what I'm talking about.
- I still don't quite understand what it means.
:o



Twenty-eight wins sounds about right. A couple more upsets with one less disappointment. Not that it'll be less disappointing for us watching.

Lance George
01-31-2010, 02:44 PM
The 4th or 5th pick with a solid shot at moving into the top-three would be acceptable.

Will Galen
01-31-2010, 02:51 PM
The 4th or 5th pick with a solid shot at moving into the top-three would be acceptable.

Say we finish 7th. The way the lottery works we could move back three spots.

imawhat
01-31-2010, 02:59 PM
See my user title for where I think they'll finish with the current roster/rotation. At this point I think the losing is contagious and the losing atmosphere is in full effect.

However, I think we have the potential to be a much better team than we currently are with an adjusted strategy and rotation.

-We've heard rumblings about the three-point shooting now from the top of the organization to the players. That could change.

-We saw a new (and imo, their best) lineup on Friday night that looks to be promising.

-We've seen recent growth and improvement in some of our underperforming players (Rush) and our best player appears to be fully healthy.

-And finally, we may have a trade or two that I think will help our on court chemistry, even if we're getting nothing in return.

With all of these factors it's possible that we finish the year around .500, again, but I'm not holding my breath.


For Will....
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y129/DiverseMusicians/KBF.jpg

Will Galen
01-31-2010, 04:21 PM
For Will....
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y129/DiverseMusicians/KBF.jpg

:blush: For me! :blush: Too old! I couldn't handle it! :o

I do like to look though!

Naptown_Seth
01-31-2010, 06:35 PM
Count, great job as always. I agree with your logic and opinions right down the line.

So to add more perspective to his projection...


I figured about 5th. Let's assume maybe one team leapfrogs them in the lottery so they draft 6th.

Guys off the board:
Wall
Evan Turner
Wes Johnson

Maybe off the board:
Favors, Aminu, Ed Davis, Aldrich

Pacers will not take him because of attitude:
Cousins

I don't think you want Aldrich, and I'm not sold on the lightweight Ed Davis at this point (nor that his stock will remain top 6, NBADraft.net has already updated and dropped him).

This leaves us picking from
Monroe, Patterson, Stanley Robinson, Poindexter, Lawal, the TX kids, Booker, Sanders, Brackins, Udoh, Ndiaye, Montiejunas (the Euro "Dirk" type)

Some of those guys aren't slotted anywhere near that range and currently would be huge reaches. I don't think X Henry will come out. I think if W Warren does he's not a good choice and will have fallen quite a bit by then.

Baylor's backcourt of Tweety and LaceDarius Dunn might play their way into the first round perhaps as Baylor is in the Big 12 mix.

By position, style of game as part of the consideration, so bigs that face up and play outside and off the dribble a lot go as PF/SF rather than true PF. Monroe is so big that despite his face up style he still lingers toward PF/C.

PG
Warren, Tweety

SG
Poindexter, L Dunn, Bradley (TX)

SF
Robinson, D James (TX)

PF/SF
Brackins, Sanders, Montiejunas, Ed Davis, Lawal

PF
Booker, Patterson

PF/C
Monroe, Ndiaye, Udoh

C
Aldrich, Cousins, Pittman (TX)

As you might have already known, the primary value in the 5-10 range of the draft is going to be in the PF area, with some bigger SFs there and a few marginal C types as well.


This is why I propose a possible trade down because I see a lot of flatness from 6-15 in the bigs available. If you can add a kid like Robinson or Poindexter just by shifting from Monroe or Cousins to Lawal or Booker, it's worth looking into.

Of course my feelings on that will be greatly impacted by the rest of the college season and how the draft slotting starts to shake out. Right now it's a mess.

Let me warn you non-prospect followers - many sites are NOT updated that regularly and are showing preseason slotting or weeks old opinions. Also while Ford claims to always be on the latest GM/scout edge with his views, he's typically appeared way out of sync till draft day when he updates about 10 times to get it close to correct.

So when you see Indy drafting Willie Warren at 6th, ignore it. That's not realistic at all right now. If Wes Johnson isn't top 4 and Cousins isn't top 10, you gotta wonder. No one who's seen Cousins and Ed Davis sees Cousins as the lesser prospect.

PacerGuy
02-01-2010, 12:39 AM
I accidently went to sixshots@8seconds & found some site about Tin's & Jax, but no count - then I realized my mistake....

I too think we are likely headed in the 25-30 range / 4-7 range. I can only hope the lotto balls continue to reward those outside the 3 worst.
Just wondering - Who is your #3?
1) Wall
2) Evans
3) ?

My hope is to get a late 1st for Murph & maybe foster (S.A.?). Use those to move up into late-lotto territory so we get 2 young players for n/y. I think this is the type of yr. that have some teams in that area that will not want the cap hole a high pick will carry & will be willing to move a pick. Add in our possible expirings & I think there's hope.

Major Cold
02-01-2010, 08:08 AM
The more Evans plays and Wall plays purely on athleticism I think Evans can by pass if he continues to play the way he is and he has good workouts.

Jonathan
02-01-2010, 11:39 AM
The way they have been playing I would not be suprised if the Wolves surpassed their win total. I just would like a single victory before the allstar break.

Naptown_Seth
02-01-2010, 10:38 PM
Wall can be caught I believe. Not saying he will, just that he can.

Wes Johnson and Stanley Robinson will both have chances to really make an impact in the Big East and then NCAA tourney, and based on how they are used by the team and the level they are playing at I think they look like good bets to have big games.

Where they benefit over Turner is that while Purdue and MSU are considered great teams, they aren't considered big with NBA talent to compare against.

Robinson is not up there yet, but UConn is making lots of noise and he's going to be the star focus of any solid run they make. If he and Wes are having some shootout in the Big East tourney, or they are facing Nova or G'town (Monroe) and having big game winning kind of nights, they are going to climb.

Wes is already pushing toward #2 thanks to the last few weeks. He's had some huge games to go with his athletic ability.


In fact, FEB 10th, UConn vs Syracuse. Huge game. SF vs SF.

If Cousins could keep his cool he's move to #2 in a hurry, but that seems unlikely right now.



Second half of FEB and the conference tourneys, that's going to be a nice showcase for guys. This also helps the Big 12 kids.

cdash
02-01-2010, 11:08 PM
Wall can be caught I believe. Not saying he will, just that he can.

Wes Johnson and Stanley Robinson will both have chances to really make an impact in the Big East and then NCAA tourney, and based on how they are used by the team and the level they are playing at I think they look like good bets to have big games.

Where they benefit over Turner is that while Purdue and MSU are considered great teams, they aren't considered big with NBA talent to compare against.

Robinson is not up there yet, but UConn is making lots of noise and he's going to be the star focus of any solid run they make. If he and Wes are having some shootout in the Big East tourney, or they are facing Nova or G'town (Monroe) and having big game winning kind of nights, they are going to climb.

Wes is already pushing toward #2 thanks to the last few weeks. He's had some huge games to go with his athletic ability.


In fact, FEB 10th, UConn vs Syracuse. Huge game. SF vs SF.

If Cousins could keep his cool he's move to #2 in a hurry, but that seems unlikely right now.



Second half of FEB and the conference tourneys, that's going to be a nice showcase for guys. This also helps the Big 12 kids.

I will eat roadkill opossum if the likes of Stanley Robinson catches John Wall for the #1 pick.

ChicagoJ
02-02-2010, 12:25 PM
I accidently went to sixshots@8seconds & found some site about Tin's & Jax, but no count - then I realized my mistake....

:lol:

Props for that.

Lance George
02-03-2010, 11:01 AM
I don't expect Stanley Robinson to go top-10, let alone top-five. He's been around for far too long (Sr.) to still have so many holes in his game. If we need a young, athletic tweener (for whatever reason) save the pick and sign Joe Alexander to a dirt-cheap contract.

d_c
02-03-2010, 12:52 PM
I will eat roadkill opossum if the likes of Stanley Robinson catches John Wall for the #1 pick.

Unless something really dramatic happens, nobody is catching John Wall for the #1 pick. He's young, dynamic, has the most upside and perhaps most importantly, plays the premium position.

Turner is really nice, but he's a bit "old" for a junior. He's 22 at the start of next season. Same thing with Robinson. Wes Johnson turns 23 this summer. These guys are very much physically mature and their games are all fairly refined, so it's no surprise they're handling college competition pretty easily.

And it just comes down to what's hard to find. Good wing players come out just about every year, and in some drafts there will be more than one. A PG prospect like Wall doesn't. When is the last time a 22/23 year old SG/SF went #1 in the draft? It's been quite awhile and I don't expect this year to be any different.