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Peck
01-24-2010, 01:42 AM
Ok, I know this is going to turn into an anti-JOB thread and frankly I'm ok with that, to a point.

But I have to ask.

At what point in time does it fall on the coach's shoulders for players continually taking bad shots?

Now don't get my question wrong, this does not absolve the players at all as some of them take shots that I will tell you make O'Brien's head want to explode.

But at what point in time does he become responsible for the shot selection?

I guess that is a two part question.

Sookie
01-24-2010, 01:48 AM
I don't think it's a "point in time thing" I think it depends on what the coach is telling them.

If JOB is yelling at whoever, everytime they take an awful shot..and they still continue to do it. It's not his fault.

However..if he continues to preach "quick threes" and the players take quick threes, then that's JOB's fault.

Hoop
01-24-2010, 01:58 AM
How's the the old saying go? The Coach don't take bad shots, make dumb turnovers, watch players go by them for layups. But, neither do well coached players.

I'm blaming it mostly on poor coaching and a flawed system that does not match the players strengths. I think most of our players have came from big time College Programs that value shot selection, good team play, and defense. The system he is trying to get them to play goes against everything they have already been taught, so confusion is going to reign IMO.

I'm betting the same folks, like me, who don't like the coach's style will blame JOB.

The same folks that are always defending JOB come hell or high water will blame the players and we'll be right back to the beginning again, it's always the same debate over and over.

travmil
01-24-2010, 01:58 AM
Maybe they think they better take all the shots they can when they have the chance since they will more than likely be inexplicably benched and run off a string of DNP-CD's. You never know when you're gonna see the court for JOB unless you have the good fortune of being born Troy Murphy, then your golden.

Twes
01-24-2010, 02:16 AM
Doesn't it seem like it's time for a new coach.

I'm just sayin.

Dr. Awesome
01-24-2010, 02:29 AM
as some of them take shots that I will tell you make O'Brien's head want to explode.

*Sigh* If only that were possible. Not that I would wish harm on anyone, but man, if taking bad shots drove Obie away from this team, by all means, I'd be happy watching Hibbert chuck shots from half court all game long.

Dr. Awesome
01-24-2010, 02:31 AM
How's the the old saying go? The Coach don't take bad shots, make dumb turnovers, watch players go by them for layups. But, neither do well coached players.

I'm blaming it mostly on poor coaching and a flawed system that does not match the players strengths. I think most of our players have came from big time College Programs that value shot selection, good team play, and defense. The system he is trying to get them to play goes against everything they have already been taught, so confusion is going to reign IMO.

I'm betting the same folks, like me, who don't like the coach's style will blame JOB.

The same folks that are always defending JOB come hell or high water will blame the players and we'll be right back to the beginning again, it's always the same debate over and over.

This is a great post, I couldn't agree more.

PaceBalls
01-24-2010, 04:42 AM
Beyond our coach's flawed system or the players being bad. We have also have horrible lineups being trotted out there. Hibbert and Troy or T-Roy as this monster has been called is just atrocious together. Mike Jr is also terrible at defense and if you get these three together it is just superterriblisticextrabadatrocious defense.

Then we also have players refusing to go into a Roy in the post. I saw Roy posted up a number of times and the guy who would normally feed him drive right past him for the turnover, or take a contested jumpshot. It's as if the players are runnign two different offenses. You have Roy posting up, and our wings running off screens cloggin everything up in a display of offensive futility.

So selfishness is a huge problem. All these things do eventually lead back to the coach for not tightening the reigns and instilling discipline to make the right play. And of course, it is on Jim for playing terrible lineups together.

ksuttonjr76
01-24-2010, 03:11 PM
How's the the old saying go? The Coach don't take bad shots, make dumb turnovers, watch players go by them for layups. But, neither do well coached players.

I'm blaming it mostly on poor coaching and a flawed system that does not match the players strengths. I think most of our players have came from big time College Programs that value shot selection, good team play, and defense. The system he is trying to get them to play goes against everything they have already been taught, so confusion is going to reign IMO.

I'm betting the same folks, like me, who don't like the coach's style will blame JOB.

The same folks that are always defending JOB come hell or high water will blame the players and we'll be right back to the beginning again, it's always the same debate over and over.

Agreed.

I was always taught "Take the best shot", not "Take the first shot available". I was always taught "Don't take a shot in transition", not "Pull up as soon as you cross the half-court line". I was always taught "Switch on D (which sucked, because I HATED it when I got stuck on a PG)", not "Stay with your man although another could be open". I was always taught "Wait for your Bigs (unless it's a 3 on 1 fastbreak) to get position", not "Shoot although all 5 players are on the perimeter". I was always taught "TALK ON DEFENSE", not ".......". I was always taught "Cut to the open space", not "Stand by the 3PT line". I was always taught "Use screens and picks", not "Stand by the 3PT line :)".

Man, I think I would hate playing for JOB, unless I was a player who loved to jack up 3's not play defense.

cdash
01-24-2010, 03:55 PM
I've come to grips with the fact that Obie is going to finish out this season as head coach. I'm fine with that. But if this guy starts next season as the coach, then Bird would really be pushing my limits as a fan. When it's time to make a change, a change has to be made. Should Obie get the blame for all of this? Of course not, but it's time for a change.

d_c
01-24-2010, 04:46 PM
Just like any coach who was going to take this coaching job, JOB is a "throwaway coach".

As are 75% of the players on this roster.

Unclebuck
01-24-2010, 06:05 PM
.

The same folks that are always defending JOB come hell or high water will blame the players and we'll be right back to the beginning again, it's always the same debate over and over.

No not the same debate, we haven't discussed this too often this season.

I might surprise you as I'm sure I'm in the hell or high water camp

Shot selection is largely a function of coaching. So if you think the Pacers are taking bad shots, blaming the coach is a reasonable response. A coach can put an end to it to a degree. If a player is taking bad shots, the coach can take that player out, and sit him on the bench.

Of course this opens up several different discusions about what is bad shot selection, I won't get into that here. You also have to consider whether the team has enough talent to get good shots to begin with. If 5 of us were to play a game against an NBA team, we would take horrible shots because we aren't capable of getting good shots. Obviously this is an extreme point that I'm using to make my point.

But if you believe the pacers take bad shots and therefore want to blame the coach, that is reasonable, one of the more reasonable approaches in this forum in awhile in egards to Jim O'Brien

Unclebuck
01-24-2010, 06:09 PM
Agreed.

I was always taught "Take the best shot", not "Take the first shot available". I was always taught "Don't take a shot in transition", not "Pull up as soon as you cross the half-court line". I was always taught "Switch on D (which sucked, because I HATED it when I got stuck on a PG)", not "Stay with your man although another could be open". I was always taught "Wait for your Bigs (unless it's a 3 on 1 fastbreak) to get position", not "Shoot although all 5 players are on the perimeter". I was always taught "TALK ON DEFENSE", not ".......". I was always taught "Cut to the open space", not "Stand by the 3PT line". I was always taught "Use screens and picks", not "Stand by the 3PT line :)".

Man, I think I would hate playing for JOB, unless I was a player who loved to jack up 3's not play defense.

I want to expand this conversation beyond the pacers to the whole NBA. What you were taught is generally not what is taught in the NBA. Most teams want their best shooters taking transition threes as those are often the easiest threes their best players are going to get. With the 24 second shot clock and the great defenses in the NBA taking transition shots is a way of life

the jaddler
01-24-2010, 06:35 PM
I think all parties have to take responiblity. I feel that no player on any team should be able to have a free for all for shooting. It should be part of the team stratige. If a play just hands in his face and take a diffucult shoot...no biggie as long as they dont make a habit of it. Now if a player is taking bad shot after bad shot and never getting it to fall and we are not get the offensive board, then we are just persay handing the ball over to the other team....which as you all know if the other team scores more points then we do, we lose.....there for I say its Larry Birds fault for letting it be Jim Obriens fault for letting the players take those shots time after time!

shags
01-24-2010, 08:01 PM
Peck, I was thinking that as I was watching the Pacers destroy the Pistons.

Do the Pacers always play a, what I would describe, "run and chuck" offense? I mean, Troy Murphy, Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy, Brandon Rush, they have absolutely no conscience. They shoot whenever they get it, it seems like. It can work if they're hitting their shots, and they get a below average team (like the current Pistons) to play their style, but a disciplined team (like the Billups/Hamilton/Prince/Sheed/Ben Pistons) would destroy them.

So do they always play like that, or was that an aberration?

Naptown_Seth
01-24-2010, 09:15 PM
No not the same debate, we haven't discussed this too often this season.

I might surprise you as I'm sure I'm in the hell or high water camp

Shot selection is largely a function of coaching. So if you think the Pacers are taking bad shots, blaming the coach is a reasonable response. A coach can put an end to it to a degree. If a player is taking bad shots, the coach can take that player out, and sit him on the bench.

Of course this opens up several different discusions about what is bad shot selection, I won't get into that here. You also have to consider whether the team has enough talent to get good shots to begin with. If 5 of us were to play a game against an NBA team, we would take horrible shots because we aren't capable of getting good shots. Obviously this is an extreme point that I'm using to make my point.

But if you believe the pacers take bad shots and therefore want to blame the coach, that is reasonable, one of the more reasonable approaches in this forum in awhile in egards to Jim O'Brien
When I see Roy denied at the rim many times or see the team run 4-5+ pass AND cuts plays and just flounder for anything close to a make-able shot, then I'll understand why they pull up quick all the time.

That hasn't even come close to happening. I wouldn't force Solo into 10 post ups a game, but I wouldn't run and hide from Roy because he muffed 2 shots at the post or got one blocked.

Rush annoys JOB because he insists on passing up shots he thinks aren't very good. He seems to dislike shooting out of rhythm or when there's still a chance to grind it even closer to the rim. So Rush is labeled as a "flake" (paraphrase), or even more laughable called a poor defender as an excuse to bench him last year.




Look, forget me. Let's talk other ticket buyers instead. The last couple of weeks you know what I hear from the stands? "Inside Out", "Stop Chucking" or a variety of sarcastic variations of "shoot it, your open" as they cross midcourt.

This is lower level and can be heard at the court. I'm opposite corner of Bird, but I assume that similar comments are being yelled out toward his end too.

The fanbase isn't complaining about gangsters or bad players or even losing per se. What they are sick of is the type of ball.

You can ignore my rants here or dismiss them (and Peck, et al), but paying customers at the event are heckling the issue. That's a very bad sign.

Naptown_Seth
01-24-2010, 09:23 PM
And Buck, it's not just my eyes that say the Pacers play a different form of offense. The stats back it too, along with the announces of other teams and various non-Indy based basketball analysts.

Is there anyone out there nationally defending the style of play by JOB? Let's say JOB is fired tomorrow, who's shocked? Does Mark Stein write an article about how other teams are beating down the door to hire him? Is Mark Cuban blogging about how he can't believe the Pacers made such a dumb mistake? Is Bill Simmons wondering about the latest Bird blunder for letting a treasure like JOB go?



Meanwhile I have to watch Dirk's career reborn and Dallas rolling to one of their best seasons yet. You know, because Rick's overrated.

F'n patience. That's all it would have taken. Does anyone really want to make the case that Rick would have had the team playing the exact same style as JOB is right now? Please. Even Rick detractors won't suggest that.

the jaddler
01-24-2010, 09:42 PM
And Buck, it's not just my eyes that say the Pacers play a different form of offense. The stats back it too, along with the announces of other teams and various non-Indy based basketball analysts.

Is there anyone out there nationally defending the style of play by JOB? Let's say JOB is fired tomorrow, who's shocked? Does Mark Stein write an article about how other teams are beating down the door to hire him? Is Mark Cuban blogging about how he can't believe the Pacers made such a dumb mistake? Is Bill Simmons wondering about the latest Bird blunder for letting a treasure like JOB go?



Meanwhile I have to watch Dirk's career reborn and Dallas rolling to one of their best seasons yet. You know, because Rick's overrated.

F'n patience. That's all it would have taken. Does anyone really want to make the case that Rick would have had the team playing the exact same style as JOB is right now? Please. Even Rick detractors won't suggest that.

so what are you saying.....wait it out and we will win more games.....or wait it out till job is fired?

BlueNGold
01-24-2010, 10:26 PM
Does anyone really want to make the case that Rick would have had the team playing the exact same style as JOB is right now? Please. Even Rick detractors won't suggest that.

That's just a funny thought...of course. Obviously Rick would play a "more precise" style of play...and a slower, more controlled pace.

If RC were in charge, Watson would have been the starter, possibly at the beginning of the year....certainly sooner than 2010. Also, he would not have been able to stomach T-Roy's inability to defend the paint...so Solo and McBob would play a larger part. This would probably reduce Troy's role on the team as a whole. Honestly, I'm not sure how Rick would use Troy, but I'm sure he'd find a way.

In addition, TJ would be coming off the bench rather than AJ Price. Perhaps that's where JOb deserves some credit....yet TJ should still be used. Goodness, he is not a terrible player...and under the right circumstances can be an asset.

Hibbert would be getting fed more often. Obviously he is no JO...but I think Carlisle would attempt to use him more in the post. I wouldn't be surprised if the offense revolved around Roy passing out of the post.

D Jones and Rush would probably be Rick's favorites...and I'm almost certain Rick would do a better job using Brandon.

Finally, I don't think our record would be nearly as bad because defense would actually be the #1 priority. I'd say we would be talking more about making the playoffs at the present time than the draft.

Brad8888
01-24-2010, 11:22 PM
Who amongst the Pacers would play consistently if they were benched for taking bad shots? Roy, because he doesn't get the ball often enough to be expected to shoot covered and/or rushed jumpshots early in the clock prior to our "rebounder" being in position? I have been trying to think of another player who is not injured who would fit that description and cannot think of a single one.

Young
01-25-2010, 12:18 AM
I want to expand this conversation beyond the pacers to the whole NBA. What you were taught is generally not what is taught in the NBA. Most teams want their best shooters taking transition threes as those are often the easiest threes their best players are going to get. With the 24 second shot clock and the great defenses in the NBA taking transition shots is a way of life

UB I understand what you are saying here. It's not just in the NBA it is becoming more and more popular on all levels of basketball.

To bring it back to the Pacers though I see two problems with taking quick threes or a lot of threes in general. Number one is that it really is not playing to a lot of player's strengths. Number two is it is not resulting in winning.

If you look at the Pacer's roster there are not a lot of players that you would mark 3 point shooting as a strength.

Granger can hit it but since he is the best scorer I would think you would want taking less than 43% of his shots from beyond the arc.

Murphy can defiantly stand out there and hit it.

Rush can as well. I think he is better though in the half court, inside-out with his feet set more then he is taking a quick three.

Dunleavy can hit it from there but to me he is so versatile and can do a lot of things well on offense you really don't want to use him as a 3 point shooter a lot.

Head can hit it from 3 but he hasn't shot the ball well from there. Price has shot a decent % but that's not really what he does best.

Watson has shot well from 3 before but has been inconsistent over the year. Not a guy you bring in to shoot 3s.

D. Jones and Ford should never shoot 3s.

Obviously Foster and S. Jones shouldn't shoot any either. Nor should Tyler, Roy, or Josh although those 3 have shot a few this year.

I understand why teams have that strategy when it plays to the stregnths of their players. I don't understand why the Pacers use that strategy when it doesn't play to the strengths of their players.

Shade
01-25-2010, 12:19 AM
I've been wondering about this since the Tinsley vs. Phoenix debacle a few years ago.

McKeyFan
01-25-2010, 12:27 AM
Like BBall, says, watch what JOB does, not what he says.

I'm guessing the players think the same way. "I'll forget about all that talk from coach about taking good shots, and I'll just watch and see if he benches anyone for it."

Jonathan
01-25-2010, 12:33 AM
I have never thought JOB would win this team a Championship. I give him credit 4 accepting a difficult job that few wanted. He is doing a great job as a coach 4 a struggling, inexperienced team.

The shot selection is not what I want @ all from this team. I believe the Pacers should start Roy and give him the ball in the low post early in the game much like Smits. Injuries have plauged the Pacers more than shot selection this season.

pacergod2
01-25-2010, 02:24 AM
Imagine what a JOB run game of team knockout would be. Nobody can go inside the three point arc unless to rebound the ball, but must bring it back out to shoot every time. Only three's!

indygeezer
01-25-2010, 09:14 AM
I didn't want him hired as coach and haven't bought a ticket since he was hired (gone on plenty of freebies tho).

Unclebuck
01-25-2010, 09:23 AM
When I see Roy denied at the rim many times or see the team run 4-5+ pass AND cuts plays and just flounder for anything close to a make-able shot, then I'll understand why they pull up quick all the time.

That hasn't even come close to happening. I wouldn't force Solo into 10 post ups a game, but I wouldn't run and hide from Roy because he muffed 2 shots at the post or got one blocked.

Rush annoys JOB because he insists on passing up shots he thinks aren't very good. He seems to dislike shooting out of rhythm or when there's still a chance to grind it even closer to the rim. So Rush is labeled as a "flake" (paraphrase), or even more laughable called a poor defender as an excuse to bench him last year.




Look, forget me. Let's talk other ticket buyers instead. The last couple of weeks you know what I hear from the stands? "Inside Out", "Stop Chucking" or a variety of sarcastic variations of "shoot it, your open" as they cross midcourt.

This is lower level and can be heard at the court. I'm opposite corner of Bird, but I assume that similar comments are being yelled out toward his end too.

The fanbase isn't complaining about gangsters or bad players or even losing per se. What they are sick of is the type of ball.

You can ignore my rants here or dismiss them (and Peck, et al), but paying customers at the event are heckling the issue. That's a very bad sign.


Not sure any of that was directed at me or not - didn't really address anything I posted. But you did quote me, so I suppose I'll respond. I pretty much said if you want to blame the coach for the shot selection (whether you think it is good or bad and I didn't comment either way on that part of the issue) yes blame the coach I think the coach has a very direct relationship and imapct on shot selection. (Not sure what some season ticket holder yelling stuff from the stands has to do with any of my comments.

I hardly think I ignore your post. I might dismiss them but I explain why I do.

Unclebuck
01-25-2010, 09:27 AM
And Buck, it's not just my eyes that say the Pacers play a different form of offense. The stats back it too, along with the announces of other teams and various non-Indy based basketball analysts.

Is there anyone out there nationally defending the style of play by JOB? Let's say JOB is fired tomorrow, who's shocked? Does Mark Stein write an article about how other teams are beating down the door to hire him? Is Mark Cuban blogging about how he can't believe the Pacers made such a dumb mistake? Is Bill Simmons wondering about the latest Bird blunder for letting a treasure like JOB go?



Meanwhile I have to watch Dirk's career reborn and Dallas rolling to one of their best seasons yet. You know, because Rick's overrated.

F'n patience. That's all it would have taken. Does anyone really want to make the case that Rick would have had the team playing the exact same style as JOB is right now? Please. Even Rick detractors won't suggest that.


Wow. Not sure why all this is directed at me. All I said in this thread is that if you want to blame the coach for the shot selection I think that is fair. I was one of if not the biggest Rick Carlisle supporters there were, so what are you talking about - implying I assume that I didn't like or respect Rick's coaching. I'll give you a $1,000 if you find where I said or even implied that Rick Carlisle is overrated.

Will Galen
01-25-2010, 10:12 AM
Wow. Not sure why asll this is directed at me. All I said in this thread is that if you want to blame the coach for the shot selection I think that is fair. I was one of if not the biggest Rick carlisle supporters there were, so what are you talking about - implying I assume that I didn't like or response Rick's coaching. I'll give you a $1,000 if you find where I said or even implied that

Rick carlisle is overrated.
:devil:

BillS
01-25-2010, 10:20 AM
What I blame the coach for is that there are not enough standard plays to allow us to force the ball into the mid-range and the paint. That makes it very easy for defenses to make it difficult enough for us to attack the rim that we choose not to do so.

I blame the players for missing the kinds of wide-open shots any coach wants them to take. I saw TONS of these on Saturday night, some coming after picks set, some on ball screens, some in transition - didn't matter, we missed them. The mix of opportunities told me they aren't just being told to shoot right away. They were very good looks, and they almost all banged off the front of the rim.

Tom White
01-25-2010, 10:23 AM
I didn't want him hired as coach and haven't bought a ticket since he was hired (gone on plenty of freebies tho).

That's my kinda thinking.

Good to see you post again, geezer.

ksuttonjr76
01-25-2010, 10:25 AM
And Buck, it's not just my eyes that say the Pacers play a different form of offense. The stats back it too, along with the announces of other teams and various non-Indy based basketball analysts.

Is there anyone out there nationally defending the style of play by JOB? Let's say JOB is fired tomorrow, who's shocked? Does Mark Stein write an article about how other teams are beating down the door to hire him? Is Mark Cuban blogging about how he can't believe the Pacers made such a dumb mistake? Is Bill Simmons wondering about the latest Bird blunder for letting a treasure like JOB go?



Meanwhile I have to watch Dirk's career reborn and Dallas rolling to one of their best seasons yet. You know, because Rick's overrated.

F'n patience. That's all it would have taken. Does anyone really want to make the case that Rick would have had the team playing the exact same style as JOB is right now? Please. Even Rick detractors won't suggest that.

Man, I have NBALP, and I can't tell you how many times announcers make the same common statements.

"Roy is one of the best developing centers in the league, but Indiana rarely feeds him the ball."

"Indiana's style of playing will allow us back in the game, especially now that they're not hitting their shots."

"*Insert Player* settled on that jumper"

"There's another quick shot from Indiana"

"*Insert other team* has gone a run, and O'Brien hasn't called a timeout yet."

"Granger is not afraid to shoot a ton of 3's"

"Why D. Jones shooting the 3? He's more known as a defensive specialist."

"Indiana seems to have no real ball movement."

"And there's ANOTHER turnover by Indiana"

Unclebuck
01-25-2010, 10:30 AM
What I blame the coach for is that there are not enough standard plays to allow us to force the ball into the mid-range and the paint. That makes it very easy for defenses to make it difficult enough for us to attack the rim that we choose not to do so.

I blame the players for missing the kinds of wide-open shots any coach wants them to take. I saw TONS of these on Saturday night, some coming after picks set, some on ball screens, some in transition - didn't matter, we missed them. The mix of opportunities told me they aren't just being told to shoot right away. They were very good looks, and they almost all banged off the front of the rim.

That is very much coach directed. It was probably 6 weeks ago or so now, but on Jim's radio show he went through a rather lenghty discussion about how the midrange shot is the worst shot in basketball. he wants shots within (I forget the exact distance he mentioned) lets say 10 feet of the basket or he wants three point shots. he coaches against his team taking midrange shots - and his defense is designed to force teams to take guarded midrange shots.

It was a rather interesting discussion. Very much the Rick Pitino background coming out in him.

I don't really agree with Jim's thoughts on this. It has some merit in theory - I don't think it makes Jim a horrible coach because he believes in it. I do believe in the 3 point shot though.

That is not to say that Jim doesn't run a number of plays to get midrange shots, several of the plays for Mike and danny are for midrange shots.

Hicks
01-25-2010, 12:53 PM
League average FG% at

<10 feet (but not "at the rim") is 43.6% with 4.0 shots made per 9.1 attempts.
Indiana is at 45.3%, 45.3% with 4.5 per 9.9.

+1.7%, +0.5 makes, -0.8 attempts.

10-15 feet, league average is 39.9% with 2.9 per 7.4.
Indiana is 37.7% with 2.7 per 7.3.

-2.2%, -0.2 makes, -0.1 attempts.

16-23 feet, league is 39.5% with 8.2 per 20.7.
Indiana is 39.2% with 8.3 per 21.3.

-0.3%, +0.1 makes, +0.6 attempts.

Wanna know from where we shoot even WORSE? At the rim and from down town.

Threes (eFG%):

League is 52.5% 6.3 per 17.9
Pacers are 49.5% 7.3 per 22.1

-3.0%, +1.0 made, +4.2 attempts

At rim:

League is 60.4% 16.0 per 26.5
Pacers are 57.9% 13.3 per 22.9

- 2.5%, -2.7 made, -3.6 attempts

http://hoopdata.com/teamshotlocs.aspx

So considering our best "not close" shot relative to league averages is the 16-23 footer, I think it might just be smart to NOT discourage our guys from taking them, and just MAYBE it's time to get the hook out on players shooting this many damn threes.

Since86
01-25-2010, 02:57 PM
That is very much coach directed. It was probably 6 weeks ago or so now, but on Jim's radio show he went through a rather lenghty discussion about how the midrange shot is the worst shot in basketball. he wants shots within (I forget the exact distance he mentioned) lets say 10 feet of the basket or he wants three point shots. he coaches against his team taking midrange shots - and his defense is designed to force teams to take guarded midrange shots.

This makes me so happy I don't listen to his show. His style of play makes me sick to my stomach and listening to him try and defend why he wants them to play that way would literally make me puke.

I like Bird as a GM as far as making player decisions, so far, but I question his level of sanity from the hiring of JOb. They had to have talked about golf or fishing during the interview process, because if JOb discussed his basketball philosophies I might need to rethink my confidence level in the front office.

Peck
01-25-2010, 03:20 PM
Man, I have NBALP, and I can't tell you how many times announcers make the same common statements.

"Roy is one of the best developing centers in the league, but Indiana rarely feeds him the ball."

"Indiana's style of playing will allow us back in the game, especially now that they're not hitting their shots."

"*Insert Player* settled on that jumper"

"There's another quick shot from Indiana"

"*Insert other team* has gone a run, and O'Brien hasn't called a timeout yet."

"Granger is not afraid to shoot a ton of 3's"

"Why D. Jones shooting the 3? He's more known as a defensive specialist."

"Indiana seems to have no real ball movement."

"And there's ANOTHER turnover by Indiana"

Yea, I noticed that as well. The few games I have had to watch other teams broadcast it is ironic how many times they talk about the Pacers style of play and make a comment about Jim O'Brien. Maybe they do that all of the time with other teams as well but I just happen to notice it here.

Sometimes it is kind of brutal and in the case of Grant Long you could tell he did not have a lot of respect for his system from when he was being coached by him.

However he did say that Jim does expect his players to play hard.

JayRedd
01-25-2010, 04:26 PM
League average FG% at

<10 feet (but not "at the rim") is 43.6% with 4.0 shots made per 9.1 attempts.
Indiana is at 45.3%, 45.3% with 4.5 per 9.9.

+1.7%, +0.5 makes, -0.8 attempts.

10-15 feet, league average is 39.9% with 2.9 per 7.4.
Indiana is 37.7% with 2.7 per 7.3.

-2.2%, -0.2 makes, -0.1 attempts.

16-23 feet, league is 39.5% with 8.2 per 20.7.
Indiana is 39.2% with 8.3 per 21.3.

-0.3%, +0.1 makes, +0.6 attempts.

Wanna know from where we shoot even WORSE? At the rim and from down town.

Threes (eFG%):

League is 52.5% 6.3 per 17.9
Pacers are 49.5% 7.3 per 22.1

-3.0%, +1.0 made, +4.2 attempts

At rim:

League is 60.4% 16.0 per 26.5
Pacers are 57.9% 13.3 per 22.9

- 2.5%, -2.7 made, -3.6 attempts

http://hoopdata.com/teamshotlocs.aspx

So considering our best "not close" shot relative to league averages is the 16-23 footer, I think it might just be smart to NOT discourage our guys from taking them, and just MAYBE it's time to get the hook out on players shooting this many damn threes.

Dig a big post on this very subject last night, oddly enough. Basically looking at same thing you're trying to discuss, but broken down by individual player as well with a big ol' colored chart.

Wrote a bunch of words about what this might mean as well that you can check out here.

http://www.eightpointsnineseconds.com/2010/01/looking-at-vorp-with-colorful-charts-vol-2-shooting-percentages/

http://www.eightpointsnineseconds.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/pacers-shooting1.jpg


And here's everyone's shooting percentages:

http://www.eightpointsnineseconds.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/pacers-shooting-percentages1.jpg

Naptown_Seth
01-25-2010, 04:33 PM
Here's a dirty secret about the three.

Of the top 10 teams in 3PA, only 3 are in the top 10 of eFG% (which actually rewards making 3P shots). 3 teams are "hyper" shooters, taking a lot more than other teams. 2 are in the top 4, Phoenix and Orlando. The Knicks are at 11th as the 3rd "hyper" team.

Cleveland is the other top 10 eFG% team that takes a fair amount of 3s, but they are still 150 attempts below Indy (976 to 826).

So shooting the 3 a lot does NOT lend itself to better spacing for inside scoring or more rewards for getting the bonus point. Most of the strong eFG% teams have balance, like Boston or San Antonio, Toronto or Denver.

Utah is an ultra-low 3PA team and they are 6th in eFG%, but they are also the exception for the other extreme. You need the three but it's risky to live by it unless I guess you have some ultra star who can kill it (ie, Nash) or a star to feed your shooters off of (ie, Howard)


Of course Indy fares poorly partly because they are shooting the 3 at a dismal rate (33.1, good for 26th). Of course going inside doesn't help much because of their bad 2P% (47.0, good for 24th).

Then again, the slight trend is that the more you shoot threes the less you get FTAs (trend is 1 less FTA for every 8 3PA you take), and those FTAs help bump the points up as well.

So if Indy was lights out from deep that would be one thing, but right now they are better served to improve the FG% slightly by going inside and drawing some more fouls.

Naptown_Seth
01-25-2010, 04:48 PM
BTW, 2 things on Redd's great post.

First I assume he's using the season totals, meaning that the last month Rush is actually much hotter than the chart indicates. He might be having the most dramatic change from the first month till now going either up or down.

Second, 24% from close? 2nd to last at the rim only to Rush from a PF? An eFG% 8 PCT points worse than the 2nd worst one on the team? A True Shooting % 4 PCT points worse than the 2nd worst on the team?

And just to spit in my face you look at Josh vs Tyler from long range (16-23 feet) and not only is Josh DOUBLING Tyler's make rate (um, doesn't Tyler have that great spot up jumper?), he's actually killing it at a 63% rate which is better than the top eFG% from 3 by anyone on the team (means that you'd rather have him shoot just inside the arc than have someone else shoot the 3).

Awesome. If only we had a PF that could space the floor with a decent jumper, and play some defense.



The rants will never stop until they stop being true. It should annoy every single Pacers fan, not just a few of us. Let the kid play and shoot his way back to the bench. Give him 10 games of regular play (say 15 minutes) and if/when his 16-23% drops to poor and his TOs are way high and he's beat as bad or worse than Troy, then give him the earned DNP. That's all I ask.

But if he keeps putting up decent numbers then you keep playing him. I know it sounds horrible and insane, but I guess that's just me. Totally unreasonable in my asking for someone to simply be proven good or bad when so far it's been pretty good.

ChicagoJ
01-25-2010, 05:57 PM
And as always, when you add the opportunity for the conventional 3-point play or even the routine shooting foul (which rarely happens outside the arc), trying to get the closest shot you can take is still far better than playing the precentages on the three.